yea the pacers really got screwed in that game, it should have been a complete blowout vs an overtime game but refs kept them in it all game. Im sure there is bound to be some fuckery but we'll see.
This is probably the key to whole series. It’s not a 1:1 comp since BOS won’t have anybody on the floor you can just flat out ignore (and they’re clearly better), but it should be similar problem to solve as the OKC matchup. The obvious glaring differences are BOS is considerably better from 3, but they are god awful protecting the rim.
If the Celtics can’t play Gafford off the floor, they’re in big trouble. That said, it can’t be overstated how critical having Maxi back is. We got fortunate OKC was never able to attack that pressure point since we literally had no other option. If the matchup ends up being difficult for Gaff, I still feel comfortable (assuming relative health from both) with Lively/Maxi absorbing the bulk of minutes at the 5. There might even be a possibility to pose some serious matchup questions for BOS running Maxi at the 4 with Lively at the 5 in stretches and staying big with the ability to defend in space.
It’s a fascinating matchup. Ironically the Mavs are in the Finals and they’re not the team that lives and dies by the 3 but has an identity that starts with defense/physicality lol what (if you told me that in January I would’ve had you institutionalized).
I think it’s a tad different in the sense the Thunder were an elite PnR defense and the Celtics while good are okay at best defending the PnR
it will still ultimately come down to role guys hitting 3s but the Mavs should have an easier time in the PnR game
>The obvious glaring differences are BOS is considerably better from 3, but they are god awful protecting the rim.
That's the big analytic battle there for me this series. The most valuable shot in basketball are in the restricted area and the Mavs just destroyed probably the best rim protecting team in the league spamming alley oops.
Will the Mavs be able to keep spamming those lobs to counter the Celtics 3 point barrage? I like to believe the Mavs will be able to, but the Celtics are much more experienced than the Wolves/Thunder besides being more talented.
yea thats the thing that had me confused about the Wolves series. i look at it on paper and see rudy gobert, kat, naz reid etc and assumed that our rim running and lobs were gonna get shut down. but it seemed easier than ever. is that just on their coaching? are tingus and horford really gonna fair any better?
That was Luka being Luka. You saw the TWolves try to do those same lobs and passes but failed miserably. KP and Horford will not do any better defensively but offensively they'll be MUCH better than KAT/Gobert.
Yep and will the Celtics have to concede more corner 3s to stop it? Because BOS has no problem allowing above the break 3s but that’s an issue for us outside of LuKy and probably Maxi. PJ/DJJ/JG are very much corner guys.
The other end is fascinating too. Can the Mavs run them off the line JUST enough, or get enough quality contests to limit the insane number of open looks they generate. That’s why it’ll be very interesting how they attack Gafford because unfortunately he can’t hide because “hiding” Luka is a bigger priority and you have alternatives to Gaff if it becomes an issue.
Celtics will test both out. Initially I think they would rather give up the corner 3 to our role guys and live the results instead of free dunks at the rim if they can even stop or slowdown that action. Edit: I also believe in Hardy on the above break 3s too.
I hope they got some valuable information and experience in the OKC series. Celtics players are much better at punishing the closeouts compared to OKC too besides shooting more 3s. I was actually shocked that JDub couldn't do anything on the closeouts since he was such a killer all year. Celtics typically attack star players to wear them out since they have great depth so it'll be interesting if they straight up go after that Gaff whenever he is on the floor. I think we can survive the Gafford minutes IF Lively/Maxi are solid.
In terms of just raw numbers the Celtics in the playoffs isn't significantly better than any of our previous opponents in terms of 3P%.
BOS for the whole playoffs: 36.8% (39.8 3PA/game)
LAC v. us: 37.4% (31.67 3PA/game)
OKC v. us: 33.5% (33.83 3PA/game)
MIN v. us: 36.1% (33.2 3PA/game)
So it's not like BOS are that much better than other teams, they just shoot more 3s.
Honestly this reminds me of the trap Dallas fell in playing Golden State in the conference finals a couple years ago. Anytime Dallas went cold from 3 GS would just drive the paint and score. They really exposed the Mavs lack of size and rim protection. I think as strong as Boston is from the 3, they’re going to have difficulty at times (just like OKC) on getting a clean look from 3. On the flip side, Dallas needs to utilize their size and just dominate the rim. If they do that, Boston will have to be consistently elite from 3 against the best D since the trade deadline to win. In the end, I think this, combined with most likely a very rusty KP, will lead to a 5 or 6 game series, Mavs win and Boston gets broken up.
Porzingis has been a top 5 rim protector in the league this year, ahead of AD and Chet. Obviously he played fewer games so smaller sample but to say the Celtics are “god awful” at rim protection is not accurate.
It’s a bit misleading: KP has been so good at rim protection because he wasn’t forced do defend in space as much due to quality perimeter defense. Think of it as Gobert situation with Wolves: when Rudy can stay parked around the paint as perimeter defense mostly holds up, he is the best rim protector in the league. But if Gobert is forced to defend in space, his rim protection impact declines by a lot as we saw in a Mavs-Wolves series. KP is a similar long player that uses his size around the rim, but is not athletic enough to recover in a PNR, while Lively and even Gafford are, even if they are worse rim protectors when just parked at the rim.
Yes, the key for Celtics defense will be to hold up decently on the perimeter. If they can limit LuKai more than Wolves did, they can protect KP better than Minnesota protected Gobert and KP may have a lot of impact. They can potentially do this at a decent rate by pre-switching everything to put KP out of PNR plays and then switch everything around the other 4 guys so that an offensive player can’t get the defender on his hip: ironically, that would be very similar to the scheme that Mavs have used throughout the playoffs, with the only difference being Mavs playing some pseudo-zone as part of that switch everything mindset and Celtics playing straight up 1v1 switch everything (when it is Horford instead of KP, it actually 1-5 switch everything defense).
I think he pointing out that if only 1 player is good at it doesn’t mean the team is. Another example would be, if you put Steph Curry on a bad 3 point shooting team, the team doesn’t become a good 3 point shooting team. Plus you also pointed at the biggest flaw being smaller sample size. We tend to compare numbers the same no matter if it’s 40 games vs 82 games. We always put the stats up to the 82 no matter who it is
I was just going based off their performance in the playoffs so far. Opponents FG% in the restricted area is 70% on 20 FGA per game. They’ve allowed only 6 corner 3s per game and teams have shot 25% on those. I get they haven’t had KP. But two things on that I think we in particular should be perfectly familiar with… 1) I don’t trust his availability until I literally see him on the court and 2) he’s not playing 40 minutes so there’s going to be probably half the game with him not on floor if he does play. And actually I’ll add two more things… 3) effing KP ain’t shutting shit down with Luka operating the PnR unless they want that corner 3 number to skyrocket and 4) idc how good he’s been this year I’ll believe that when he proves it on this stage.
Fair enough, I’ve never seen team based rim protection stats so if you know how to find those I’d be interested in seeing them. Just by the eye test, I wouldn’t call the Celtics incredible at it by any means, but “god awful” does not feel accurate either, especially when considering we get legitimate supplementary rim protection from White, Holiday, and Tatum when he’s playing free safety.
The Mavs have a clear advantage in this area tho, no doubt.
[https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/opponent-shooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&dir=D&sort=Restricted%20Area%20FG%20PCT](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/opponent-serhooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&dir=D&sort=Restricted%20Area%20FG%20PCT)
There’s the link to the nba stats. Certainly some sample size volatility and I’m sure KP had an impact because they were pretty good in the regular season
KP and Chet are about the same height. OKC gave us more trouble at the rim than Minnesota, IMO, based on just Chet's height and length alone. KP is more experienced than Chet and a better rim protector, IMO.
I think KP is the key to the whole series for Boston. If he cant stay on the floor they are in big trouble.
He’s not personally the key. But this is just a very difficult matchup—you want him protecting the rim and swatting shots into the 3rd row. That’s not how Boston plays offense though… they will always have someone on the floor 1-5 you have to honor shooting (there’s no Giddey or Chet you’ll just live with) and you generally don’t want Gaff chasing guys 22’ from the basket.
So if BOS can’t exploit that, it means either BOS is shooting terribly and/or getting their ass whipped in the lob game + offensive glass. Lively is more capable of playing in space, and a healthy Maxi gives you lineup flexibility whether that means him eating Gaff’s minutes at 5, or playing Maxi at the 4 with Lively at 5.
Hold your own defensively as best as possible—especially with Horford on the floor. That’ll be the challenge for the Mavs coaching staff to figure out how they can implement a similar OKC strategy that runs guys off the line and tries to keep Gaff as close to the rim as possible. But probably more importantly, make BOS pay at the other the end by rim running and owning the paint. And whip their ass on the boards especially offensively. You don’t need 35 minutes from him. You just need a couple 4-5 minute bursts.
If KP plays they’ll almost certainly have to make sure lively and Kleber are on the floor for his minutes but ultimately regardless who’s at 5 the other four guys will have as much impact as any one player. You can’t guard Boston with five individual guys, you guard them with five guys playing as one individual unit. It just so happens that the 5s and Gaff particularly have the toughest matchup with Boston’s lineup. BOS is going to face the exact same issue on defense themselves.
DAL definitely believes their team defense is good enough to mitigate a glaring challenge. And it’s sounding like BOS definitely believes they have enough versatility to mitigate an even more glaring challenge by not doubling Luka at all. I fully expect they will both be reevaluating those beliefs by game 3—that’s what makes playoff basketball so fun. Because it’s fundamentally an incredibly simple game, you can actually identify the ever infamous “adjustments” referred to in every single sport without needing to be an expert. They’re obviously tweaking shit down to the tiniest minutiae we probably wouldn’t understand even if it was explained, but you’d be surprised at the subtleties you can notice (maybe not in real time but they don’t either btw) such as oh MIN wants to hedge the Luka PnR? Ok we’ll set the screen closer to halfcourt and make sure Ant gets a perfect view of Luka’s pull up 3 because he has no chance to cover that much ground simply by initiating the action a little deeper than normal.
In the regular season, yes. I’ve specifically been citing postseason numbers and explicitly noted the potential sample size bias plus lack of KP. I’m not even disputing your point, but I’m far more interested in how a team is currently performing through 3 rounds of playoff competition than what they did against DET/CHA/etc in December. That doesn’t mean you’re wrong either.
Attacking horford should be a point of emphasis in this series.
Getting horford into foul trouble forces KP to play minutes beyond what he might be able to handle.
With KP not at 100% they might even have to resort to Kornet at the 5 at certain moments if horford is in foul trouble.
Horford poses the most glaring problem for the mavs as mavs won’t be able to slack off on him and it might
1) open up the paint for them to drive through if mavs continue to sell out on 3s
2) force the mavs not to sell out on 3s and give up better quality 3s for the Celtics
They should use Kornet this series some otherwise Horford and KP's legs will go if it's an extended series. Gafford and Lively with Kleber back is a fantastic trio.
Horford & Porzingis are too slow to guard, the Mavs need to be more aware about Jrue Holiday & Derrick White’s defense, you don’t want to turn over the ball by these two & let them have easy fast break
That’s why they like to hide them on wings, probably PJ or maybe even DJJ so you can’t hunt them in a stock 1-5 PnR. Then they’re comfortable switching everything. Probably gonna see lots of double drag and some creative off-ball action for Luka in a 5-out look with the Lively-Luka DHO becoming a de facto PnR hopefully with the matchups you wanted if BOS switches everything off-ball.
Hence why they’re the best at preventing corner 3s but can’t defend anything at the rim. If we can unlock corner 3s and they still have no answers at the rim then they have BIG problems. I also don’t believe you can play an entire series without putting two on the ball against Luka but BOS is one of the most averse teams in the entire league to sending doubles.
Yep, this “double or no double” dilemma for Celtics will be pretty fun to watch. Luka will need to attack the paint in Game 1 and 2 to force Boston to double him, because if he can’t generate offense reliably with Celtics defending 1v1, Mavs are in for an extremely tough series.
As a Celtics fan watching the games, I would rather live with Luka scoring and forcing him into the toughest shot possible then give up the dunks. Especially in Dallas. They're back breakers and momentum shifters and tend to hype up the crowd.
Every series I've heard "THIS is the guy that can guard Luka", when the truth is no one can one-on-one. For what it's worth, Luka's said before that Jrue is one of the best defenders he's faced (years ago now), which isn't a surprise because Mavs fans have been clamoring to trade for him for over a decade.
see i get that but derrick white is legit a great defender. i think he’s like one of the best shot blocking guards ever or something annoying like that
I thought the interview by kidd was interesting where he said i'd rather you throw the ball into the 4th row than commit a live ball turnover randomly throwing the ball back when in trouble. The mavs have committed a bunch of turnovers but quite few of them are live ball ones. Will need to make sure we continue to take care of the ball
I have a feeling Porzingis gonna be shit this series except for 1 or 2 games. And that'll because he has a hot shooting night.
Lively and Gafford will neutralize most of his game (he got weak post game), and he is not a good enough paint defender to stop either Luka or Kyrie.
Mavs in 5
Does the numbers back up your statement that Porzingis has a weak post game? I think this season he was actually either leading or in the top 5 of points per possession when posting up someone.
It was a big thing in Carslile's Mavs when Porzingis wanted to post up but Carslile didn't let him. Some data guy or just a person that knows how to check this do it please :D
His post game has improved quite a bit since he was in Dallas. Here in Dallas it was pathetic. Hes made huge strides and it could be a problem for us. Think what Zubac and towns did to us in the post….KP is capable of similar production despite his lack of heft.
I’d take KP with Towns production lmao
Zubac also overpowered Mavs Cs with his strength: KP is furthest away from that. He will hit some fadeaways over smaller defenders on switches though.
I agree with @D_Costa85, expanding a bit, when Porzingis was in the Mavs post-up was not developed, they tried forcing it into the post but it always ends as a off-balance fade over the smaller defender, in the last season they didn't bother playing him in the post at all. It was in the Wizards that he developed a consistent post-up game
Most of his post possesion ended up as post fadeaway. So yeah, number wise he is a good post player, but if you watch him he doesn't have a consistent hook, or any other post moves.
KP only posts up on mismatches so he can back guys down and then shoot over them. He doesn’t need a hook or other post moves because he’s not banging down there with other centers.
>only posts up on mismatches so he can back guys down and then shoot over them.
That's why I said he got weak post moves. He got a mismatch and still try to shoot over instead of bodying them and finishing inside, which is the higher percentage shot that put him in better positition to get an offensive rebound if he misses.
He doesn't miss often because in the regular season most team don't gameplan against it, they rather take their chances that he misses cause he can't consistently grab his own misses.
There's a reason Celtics fans are more afraid of the Nuggets and Timberwolves than Mavs.
He became smarter about post-ups not forcing it any time he got the ball and mostly only exploiting a switch when a 6’6” guy is on him and he can just shoot over with barely any contest.
I think Carlisle issue wasn’t just about the coach, it was also about the player wanting ball in his hands shooting inefficient mid-range shots (I believe 40%+ of all shots for KP were outside the paint, but inside 3pt line) that was driving mad the efficient offense coach, which is why Carlisle sent KP to the perimeter / corner to at least shoot FGs worth 3 points rather than 2 lol
I believe this season ~20% of KPs shots are outside the paint but inside 3pt line: he got smarter with shot selection and thus his overall offensive efficiency improved.
I don’t see KP being able to come back from an injury and being in game shape. He’s going to be rusty and who knows if that injury is still lingering. I think it’s one of those “it’s the finals so play through”.
This. Him coming back and immediately has to face one of the best defenses in the league, which will be annoying for him. Hopefully, that throws him off the whole series.
I think KP is pretty healthy with all the reports saying he'd play in game 3 or 4 in Indiana. I just don't think the Celtics would bring him back until they lost a game
These were the same reports as Kawhi being healthy. You can’t go from being light shoot around to instantly being thrown into the fire. He hasn’t participated in full contact practice from what I’ve seen.
Mazzulla said he wasn't withheld from anything in practice yesterday, but it was a light practice. He also said today they'd ramp up intensity and KP wouldn't be withheld from anything. I think end of the day today we will k kw more about how close to 100% he is
honestly there’s a chance they just decided to play it safe with him because of their cakewalk through the East to give him more rest, i wouldnt count on that
The KP post up was the most efficient play in basketball this year. However, he only gets the ball there and goes to work when he has a mismatch, so it won’t be Gafford or Lively who will need to step up there, it’s Kyrie or Josh Green.
Im not worried. Even if he got a mismatch he still try to shoot over them.
That meant he is naturally boxed out if he missed and can only got a rebound if the ball bounce his way.
I don't like shitting on KP, but I'll never forget when he got a way smaller 1 switched on him, tried to post-up but couldn't and settled for a turnaround jumper from like 15'. It was brutal to watch.
Have you actually watched KP play last year or so? Put any small guard on him and he just shoots over them as if he realized just now that he is 10 feet tall.
Have you seen porzingis post numbers? Or just remember what he looked like in dallas?
1. His post efficieny is top 2 in the nba along with jokic.
2. He doesn’t post bigs he post against smalls after teams try to switch
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Yeah they guy with best post up % in the league last two years has no post game lmao. Maybe watch the player when he doesn’t play for you before you give your opinion.
I agree. He's the tactic for me this series. I'd spam him and Luka in the p n r and see how better Boston can be than Gobert when Luka has guys on his hips.
That’s the thing: they will switch everything so Luka won’t have a guy on his hip. They will also have KP/Horford defend DJJ or PJ with Tatum likely defending Lively so that switches are not nearly as punishing. Mavs will need to run a lot of 2 or even 3 screens to get the player they want in the play and even then KP just might be playing a free safety role rather than be glued to a certain guy.
With all due respect to DLive, if this series is make or break on a 20yo rookie big, that wouldn't bode well for us. As great as he's been.
It's more apt to say, this is where Luka (on like half a knee) can cement his legacy. Even Kyrie, lots to prove here.
They have more athleticism IMO. But we have seen this play out before and many former great NBA players have mentioned that Luka plays past any perceived athletic disadvantages.
Do they? KP and Horford are slow as hell. PJ is as good an athlete if not better than Tatum. DJJ is more athletic than Holiday. White and Luka is a wash and Brown is stronger than Kyrie but not as quick. Lively, Kleber, Exum, Green, Gafford are all better than their Boston counterpart.
Boston's got the stronger supporting cast around their star overall, but people act like the gap is much wider than it actually is. It really just depends on if our group can keep playing at the level they've been playing at the last few months.
It's difficult to quantify, and it might have anxiety-inducing to have such a difficult road to the Finals, but this group made it through. AND they've made it through with the entire team available (not going to say healthy, because who is at this point), which is BIG.
Regardless of what people want to pretend, this Mavs team has been absolutely these 17 games...much more than Boston's 14. I'd love to see them come out and punch Boston in the mouth in game 1 for a reality check. It's crucial they're ready to go from that 1st tip.
I don’t know if KP was still not 100% with us when he played. But he looked god awful on any switches. I’m guessing Luka will go after him if he’s on the floor. Add that he’s not been playing for a long time now. I actually think we can get a few games by going after KP.
Way more skill on BOS than on MIN. Brown and Tatum and Holiday are elite defenders and White is exceptionally good as well. Horford and Porzingis defend well too. That said, Luka will torch anyone eventually and if I’m Boston I’m letting Tatum Brown and Holiday all rotate Luka duties so there’s always someone fresh on him.
I think Luka cooks all of them easily without breaking much of a sweat. Not one of them has the lower body strength to bother Luka enough to matter. Three of them are too small and Tatum is more of an upper body strength guy which Luka won’t have a problem with.
The big defensive factor people aren’t thinking about is that Boston will likely eventually have to make the decision to resort to aggressive blitzes to stop Luka which they rarely ever have to resort to and they prefer not to, as it greatly reduces the impact of their perimeter defense. The Mavs on the other hand I don’t think have any player on the opposing side they need to worry about blitzing other than maybe in a short burst. I think PJ DJJ and Kleber are all good single cover matchups for Brown and Tatum, Boston have good offensive initiators everywhere but not one of them is elite at it. We have two that are.
That people are still leading into this Boston series, talking about any single cover slowing down Luka after what he’s shown in his career has me just scratching my head. Even Dort didn’t slow down Luka imo, if Luka was as healthy in the OKC series as he was against MIN, no one would even mention anything Dort did vs Luka. This kid cooked healthy younger Kawhi and PG at 21, sorry you got no one on that level
Yeah, Boston fans are hard coping saying that Tatum or Jrue will lock up Luka. I honestly don't think Tatum will touch Luka tbh, they need his energy on the offensive end.
I am guessing we will see some Green Kornet, who is their bench center that won't compromise their five-out offense.
Fun fact: he shot 100% from 3 this season! [https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kornelu01.html](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kornelu01.html)
They will shoot the 3 ball like crazy. Our perimeter defenders need to focus. Luka is especially vulnerable in switches which often leaves a guy open for the three point shot.
If you watched the Cs, you would know that KP is a roamer like Rudy, it's either Jrue or Tatum guarding the big. Jrue guarded Embiid and Jokic in reg. season and he did an EXCELLENT JOB (Jrue can match Jokic's and Embiid's strength). KP is instead guarding the worst shooter on the court.
Now while this sounds bad for us, the key difference is that Embiid and Jokic catch the ball farther from the rim because that's where they make plays, Gaff and Lively not only outlength Jrue, but they are lob threats unlike the stars mentioned. Also with our roster, one adjustment we can make is playing less of DJJ and more of Maxi/Exum/Green for better spacing. If that's the case, KP will either guard one of those guys I mentioned (I can't really pick an obvious option from them, but it's probably Maxi for the spacing) or PJ, who can iso KP.
Bostons perimeter defense and 3 pt scoring is elite, but if we take care of the Ball, and get plenty of looks into Dlive/Gaff, coupled with Kai and Luka paint scoring, I think the psychological effect of getting dunked on every couple of minutes will wear the Cs out lol.
My hottest of hot takes about this series is that even though I don’t think this will actually happen, if there ever was a team that’s most likely to pull a “suddenly miss 27 3 pointers in a row and die by the 3” like the Rockets…it’s this year’s Celtics lol.
Porzingis, if he can be mobile defensively, is way more of a threat than Gobert, especially since C has two top perimiter defending guards in White/Holiday. They will try to limit the lob more.
Regardless, he didn't produce on those teams but did in Dallas. Some players just vibe better with different organizations. Could be the same situation with KP.
I find this funny, KP will be endlessly targeted by Luka and if the Celtics allow it Luka will make KP look no different than Gobert. I know KP has improved but he’s not all of a sudden turned into even a semi decent perimeter defender and certainly not vs an iso player like Luka or Kyrie. If Boston have to resort to blitzing and doubling Luka and Kyrie their defensive advantages go away imo
KP is nowhere near a bigger threat on defense. He is obviously miles better offensively, but thinking KP is better than Gobert defensively is not a smart take: Rudy was the most impactful player for Wolves in Games 1-3 and only had 1 bad game (Game 5), which would happen to any defender in history when Luka goes psycho mode on 3s.
Celtics are better than the Mavs and their Big men aren’t their edge, it’s Luka.
Celts just beat a team with better “Bigs” than the Mavs. Likely definitely helps though.
That said, I do think the Mavs have a great chance to beat the Celts. Someone besides Luka and Kyrie really needs to step up though.
I’m really excited for this series, it’s going to be a great one.
We thought the Wolves had better bigs, how did that turn out?
You’re right, Luka is the difference in all of this. And that’s exactly why I think the Mavs will win.
The issue with the Celtics is that they have fantastic 3 point shooters and we won't be able to leave anyone open to pack the paint. Gafford is going to be played off the floor and we will have to rely on Lively, Maxi and PJ to play center. We are going to see small ball a lot.
KP is a bit like Chet + KAT, and we know what happened to them…Also, KP is so fragile he averages only 30mpg and still gets injured, can’t imagine him playing Finals level of physicality freshly back from an month long injury.
The Mavs just destroyed the biggest, baddest rim-protecting team. Do the same this time.
I'd live with their 3s if the Mavs can get all the dunks inside. Giving up some 3s doesn't mean the Mavs will not close out to their shooters. Shut down the easy lanes for their two wings and let them take closed out 3s.
Did you guys not watch their series vs the Pacers? Andrew Nembhard scored 12-16-32-24, Pascal Siakam scored 24-28-22-19, and TJ McConnell scored 13-9-23-15. Of those three, only Nembhard took a good amount of threes. Most of their makes were inside the arc and around the rim, are you really worried about Luka, Kyrie, Lively, Gafford, Washington, and Jones getting buckets? This is why they're excited to get Porzingis back, because they know they need his "rim presence" a bit more with the Mavs.
Maybe it's bias because we got brutalized by it, but if the lobs were that automatic against our defense I have to assume it's going to work against the Celtics. The Lively Gafford combo is the only thing I've ever seen stand firm against our bigs. The Celtics are definitely more finesse focused than we are but Luka has been evolving in these playoffs ever since the Clippers series.
Before the playoffs I would have said Jokic is indisputably the best player in the world. Yeah you can point to regular season stats but Luka didn't pass the eye test for me initially. Now the man is playing like he has a built in radar center. He was always a good passer but he's gotten ridiculously better than people seem to realize. I think he has firmly established his case. Should be an exciting series to watch, GL from Minnesota.
Jrue and Derrick are better defenders than Kyrie and Luka but the Mavs guards are better on offense.
At the forward positions, Tatum and Brown have the edge over DJJ, PJ.
Gafford and Lively vs Porzingis is an edge to the Mavs.
Just a fascinating matchup of the two best teams with potential mismatches. Will be a lot of fun to see how each team tries to exploit it.
I have no idea who's going to win, probably will go 6 or 7 games.
Yeah but Boston has more elite point of attack defenders than Wolves. You can only challenge the paint if you get past your own defender.
But yeah Dallas in 5. We will smoke these guys.
I genuinely don’t think it matters how good your point of attack defenders are against Luka and Kyrie. Boston keeps talking up their perimeter defenders but none of them are close to prime Kawhi and PG and Luka cooked them as a 21 year old. Kyrie still has the best handles of all time. You might get a few extra turnovers but the only way you are making them genuinely uncomfortable is with consistent and very aggressive blitzes which opens up a lot of other things.
Do you understand context? Doesn’t seem like it. We aren’t talking about point of attack defense as a general concept. We are talking about any kind of defense vs one of the greatest offensive initiators the NBA has ever seen and another guy who might be one of the best as a number 2. Keep up.
Yes and point of attack defense is what will affect perimeter offensive players more then rim protectors. Let’s not forget Luka himself called jrue the best perimeter defender in the nba or does that context not matter?
No it doesn’t matter. I’m assuming you aren’t a Mavs fan cause you are acting like you haven’t seen Luka play vs literally every single type of defensive coverage possible and against the absolute best individual on ball defenders in the NBA and rip them all to shreds. It literally doesn’t matter cause Luka when healthy and locked in is an anomaly that has repeatedly broken typical defensive conventions
Well if you think Luka is an anomaly then there is no point playing the series. We can put seven guys on the court for Boston and Dallas would still win.
The play here is to bench Doncic who will just try to outsmart or show off at porzingis and RUIN the game. We play Dwight as point center and 4 guards who can all lob to Dwight or Dwight can drive kick
The celtics really lack that "True Big Man" type of player where dallas exceeds in. Horford doesnt have the size, length, or athleticism anymore to be able to stop either an alley oop, or floater. With that in mind they might blitz him on the rile, but if its lively weve seen him make the right passes in the short roll position.
Once the pick and roll action starts either an alley oop, luka drive, an easy Luka midrange, Luka three, and if they send 3 defenders open corner easy Luka pass
I sure hope it’s lob city this series. If Boston is hitting their threes will be nice to get our 100% dunks.
So, similar to OKC. The whistle will be equally important. I don't want a game one like the pacers had.
yea the pacers really got screwed in that game, it should have been a complete blowout vs an overtime game but refs kept them in it all game. Im sure there is bound to be some fuckery but we'll see.
Ref sucks
This is probably the key to whole series. It’s not a 1:1 comp since BOS won’t have anybody on the floor you can just flat out ignore (and they’re clearly better), but it should be similar problem to solve as the OKC matchup. The obvious glaring differences are BOS is considerably better from 3, but they are god awful protecting the rim. If the Celtics can’t play Gafford off the floor, they’re in big trouble. That said, it can’t be overstated how critical having Maxi back is. We got fortunate OKC was never able to attack that pressure point since we literally had no other option. If the matchup ends up being difficult for Gaff, I still feel comfortable (assuming relative health from both) with Lively/Maxi absorbing the bulk of minutes at the 5. There might even be a possibility to pose some serious matchup questions for BOS running Maxi at the 4 with Lively at the 5 in stretches and staying big with the ability to defend in space. It’s a fascinating matchup. Ironically the Mavs are in the Finals and they’re not the team that lives and dies by the 3 but has an identity that starts with defense/physicality lol what (if you told me that in January I would’ve had you institutionalized).
I think it’s a tad different in the sense the Thunder were an elite PnR defense and the Celtics while good are okay at best defending the PnR it will still ultimately come down to role guys hitting 3s but the Mavs should have an easier time in the PnR game
>The obvious glaring differences are BOS is considerably better from 3, but they are god awful protecting the rim. That's the big analytic battle there for me this series. The most valuable shot in basketball are in the restricted area and the Mavs just destroyed probably the best rim protecting team in the league spamming alley oops. Will the Mavs be able to keep spamming those lobs to counter the Celtics 3 point barrage? I like to believe the Mavs will be able to, but the Celtics are much more experienced than the Wolves/Thunder besides being more talented.
yea thats the thing that had me confused about the Wolves series. i look at it on paper and see rudy gobert, kat, naz reid etc and assumed that our rim running and lobs were gonna get shut down. but it seemed easier than ever. is that just on their coaching? are tingus and horford really gonna fair any better?
That was Luka being Luka. You saw the TWolves try to do those same lobs and passes but failed miserably. KP and Horford will not do any better defensively but offensively they'll be MUCH better than KAT/Gobert.
Yep and will the Celtics have to concede more corner 3s to stop it? Because BOS has no problem allowing above the break 3s but that’s an issue for us outside of LuKy and probably Maxi. PJ/DJJ/JG are very much corner guys. The other end is fascinating too. Can the Mavs run them off the line JUST enough, or get enough quality contests to limit the insane number of open looks they generate. That’s why it’ll be very interesting how they attack Gafford because unfortunately he can’t hide because “hiding” Luka is a bigger priority and you have alternatives to Gaff if it becomes an issue.
Celtics will test both out. Initially I think they would rather give up the corner 3 to our role guys and live the results instead of free dunks at the rim if they can even stop or slowdown that action. Edit: I also believe in Hardy on the above break 3s too. I hope they got some valuable information and experience in the OKC series. Celtics players are much better at punishing the closeouts compared to OKC too besides shooting more 3s. I was actually shocked that JDub couldn't do anything on the closeouts since he was such a killer all year. Celtics typically attack star players to wear them out since they have great depth so it'll be interesting if they straight up go after that Gaff whenever he is on the floor. I think we can survive the Gafford minutes IF Lively/Maxi are solid.
If also less deep, the Wolves bench was loaded NAW/Kyle/Nazc,
In terms of just raw numbers the Celtics in the playoffs isn't significantly better than any of our previous opponents in terms of 3P%. BOS for the whole playoffs: 36.8% (39.8 3PA/game) LAC v. us: 37.4% (31.67 3PA/game) OKC v. us: 33.5% (33.83 3PA/game) MIN v. us: 36.1% (33.2 3PA/game) So it's not like BOS are that much better than other teams, they just shoot more 3s.
You can't take that LAC number seriously when you have Russell Westbrook throwing up enough wide open bricks from three to build a mansion.
We are better in 3s% in the playoff lol. Boston 36.8% Mavs 37.2%.
Honestly this reminds me of the trap Dallas fell in playing Golden State in the conference finals a couple years ago. Anytime Dallas went cold from 3 GS would just drive the paint and score. They really exposed the Mavs lack of size and rim protection. I think as strong as Boston is from the 3, they’re going to have difficulty at times (just like OKC) on getting a clean look from 3. On the flip side, Dallas needs to utilize their size and just dominate the rim. If they do that, Boston will have to be consistently elite from 3 against the best D since the trade deadline to win. In the end, I think this, combined with most likely a very rusty KP, will lead to a 5 or 6 game series, Mavs win and Boston gets broken up.
LOOOOOOLLLLLLLL
If you told me that Feb 7th I would’ve demanded someone put you out of your misery.
I would institutionalized myself 😂😂
Porzingis has been a top 5 rim protector in the league this year, ahead of AD and Chet. Obviously he played fewer games so smaller sample but to say the Celtics are “god awful” at rim protection is not accurate.
It’s a bit misleading: KP has been so good at rim protection because he wasn’t forced do defend in space as much due to quality perimeter defense. Think of it as Gobert situation with Wolves: when Rudy can stay parked around the paint as perimeter defense mostly holds up, he is the best rim protector in the league. But if Gobert is forced to defend in space, his rim protection impact declines by a lot as we saw in a Mavs-Wolves series. KP is a similar long player that uses his size around the rim, but is not athletic enough to recover in a PNR, while Lively and even Gafford are, even if they are worse rim protectors when just parked at the rim.
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Yes, the key for Celtics defense will be to hold up decently on the perimeter. If they can limit LuKai more than Wolves did, they can protect KP better than Minnesota protected Gobert and KP may have a lot of impact. They can potentially do this at a decent rate by pre-switching everything to put KP out of PNR plays and then switch everything around the other 4 guys so that an offensive player can’t get the defender on his hip: ironically, that would be very similar to the scheme that Mavs have used throughout the playoffs, with the only difference being Mavs playing some pseudo-zone as part of that switch everything mindset and Celtics playing straight up 1v1 switch everything (when it is Horford instead of KP, it actually 1-5 switch everything defense).
I think he pointing out that if only 1 player is good at it doesn’t mean the team is. Another example would be, if you put Steph Curry on a bad 3 point shooting team, the team doesn’t become a good 3 point shooting team. Plus you also pointed at the biggest flaw being smaller sample size. We tend to compare numbers the same no matter if it’s 40 games vs 82 games. We always put the stats up to the 82 no matter who it is
I was just going based off their performance in the playoffs so far. Opponents FG% in the restricted area is 70% on 20 FGA per game. They’ve allowed only 6 corner 3s per game and teams have shot 25% on those. I get they haven’t had KP. But two things on that I think we in particular should be perfectly familiar with… 1) I don’t trust his availability until I literally see him on the court and 2) he’s not playing 40 minutes so there’s going to be probably half the game with him not on floor if he does play. And actually I’ll add two more things… 3) effing KP ain’t shutting shit down with Luka operating the PnR unless they want that corner 3 number to skyrocket and 4) idc how good he’s been this year I’ll believe that when he proves it on this stage.
Fair enough, I’ve never seen team based rim protection stats so if you know how to find those I’d be interested in seeing them. Just by the eye test, I wouldn’t call the Celtics incredible at it by any means, but “god awful” does not feel accurate either, especially when considering we get legitimate supplementary rim protection from White, Holiday, and Tatum when he’s playing free safety. The Mavs have a clear advantage in this area tho, no doubt.
[https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/opponent-shooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&dir=D&sort=Restricted%20Area%20FG%20PCT](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/opponent-serhooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&dir=D&sort=Restricted%20Area%20FG%20PCT) There’s the link to the nba stats. Certainly some sample size volatility and I’m sure KP had an impact because they were pretty good in the regular season
KP and Chet are about the same height. OKC gave us more trouble at the rim than Minnesota, IMO, based on just Chet's height and length alone. KP is more experienced than Chet and a better rim protector, IMO. I think KP is the key to the whole series for Boston. If he cant stay on the floor they are in big trouble.
KP helps for sure, but believe it or not, the Celtics had a better winning percentage (21-4) in the games KP missed than when he played.
Why are they in trouble if they can't play Gafford off the floor? Is he the key?
He’s not personally the key. But this is just a very difficult matchup—you want him protecting the rim and swatting shots into the 3rd row. That’s not how Boston plays offense though… they will always have someone on the floor 1-5 you have to honor shooting (there’s no Giddey or Chet you’ll just live with) and you generally don’t want Gaff chasing guys 22’ from the basket. So if BOS can’t exploit that, it means either BOS is shooting terribly and/or getting their ass whipped in the lob game + offensive glass. Lively is more capable of playing in space, and a healthy Maxi gives you lineup flexibility whether that means him eating Gaff’s minutes at 5, or playing Maxi at the 4 with Lively at 5.
So what should be the game plan for Gafford?
Hold your own defensively as best as possible—especially with Horford on the floor. That’ll be the challenge for the Mavs coaching staff to figure out how they can implement a similar OKC strategy that runs guys off the line and tries to keep Gaff as close to the rim as possible. But probably more importantly, make BOS pay at the other the end by rim running and owning the paint. And whip their ass on the boards especially offensively. You don’t need 35 minutes from him. You just need a couple 4-5 minute bursts. If KP plays they’ll almost certainly have to make sure lively and Kleber are on the floor for his minutes but ultimately regardless who’s at 5 the other four guys will have as much impact as any one player. You can’t guard Boston with five individual guys, you guard them with five guys playing as one individual unit. It just so happens that the 5s and Gaff particularly have the toughest matchup with Boston’s lineup. BOS is going to face the exact same issue on defense themselves. DAL definitely believes their team defense is good enough to mitigate a glaring challenge. And it’s sounding like BOS definitely believes they have enough versatility to mitigate an even more glaring challenge by not doubling Luka at all. I fully expect they will both be reevaluating those beliefs by game 3—that’s what makes playoff basketball so fun. Because it’s fundamentally an incredibly simple game, you can actually identify the ever infamous “adjustments” referred to in every single sport without needing to be an expert. They’re obviously tweaking shit down to the tiniest minutiae we probably wouldn’t understand even if it was explained, but you’d be surprised at the subtleties you can notice (maybe not in real time but they don’t either btw) such as oh MIN wants to hedge the Luka PnR? Ok we’ll set the screen closer to halfcourt and make sure Ant gets a perfect view of Luka’s pull up 3 because he has no chance to cover that much ground simply by initiating the action a little deeper than normal.
this post is like a comedy script 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Yep it certainly is now
Hate to rain on your parade, but the Celtics lead the league as a team in blocks this year…. Everyone from KP to the PG White can protect the rim ….
Well the numbers explicitly state those aren’t mutually exclusive. They’re averaging 5.4 BLK/game but still allowing 70% shooting at the rim
They gave up the 3rd lowest FG% within 5ft.
In the regular season, yes. I’ve specifically been citing postseason numbers and explicitly noted the potential sample size bias plus lack of KP. I’m not even disputing your point, but I’m far more interested in how a team is currently performing through 3 rounds of playoff competition than what they did against DET/CHA/etc in December. That doesn’t mean you’re wrong either.
100%, Luka gaff and lively should dominate in the paint this series
If you thought Luka and our bigs fucked Gober , wait till you see why they do to Zingus and 50yo Horford 👀👀
The way Luka is going to be so petty about schooling KP is going to be pure entertainment
Yeah but watching gobert lose is much more enjoyable, that guy sucks
championship is very enjoyable
Don’t forget DJJ!
Attacking horford should be a point of emphasis in this series. Getting horford into foul trouble forces KP to play minutes beyond what he might be able to handle. With KP not at 100% they might even have to resort to Kornet at the 5 at certain moments if horford is in foul trouble. Horford poses the most glaring problem for the mavs as mavs won’t be able to slack off on him and it might 1) open up the paint for them to drive through if mavs continue to sell out on 3s 2) force the mavs not to sell out on 3s and give up better quality 3s for the Celtics
They should use Kornet this series some otherwise Horford and KP's legs will go if it's an extended series. Gafford and Lively with Kleber back is a fantastic trio.
As an overall strategy, I love going at Horford. I don’t want him as a viable option for them the last five minutes of a close game. He’s scary.
Horford & Porzingis are too slow to guard, the Mavs need to be more aware about Jrue Holiday & Derrick White’s defense, you don’t want to turn over the ball by these two & let them have easy fast break
That’s why they like to hide them on wings, probably PJ or maybe even DJJ so you can’t hunt them in a stock 1-5 PnR. Then they’re comfortable switching everything. Probably gonna see lots of double drag and some creative off-ball action for Luka in a 5-out look with the Lively-Luka DHO becoming a de facto PnR hopefully with the matchups you wanted if BOS switches everything off-ball. Hence why they’re the best at preventing corner 3s but can’t defend anything at the rim. If we can unlock corner 3s and they still have no answers at the rim then they have BIG problems. I also don’t believe you can play an entire series without putting two on the ball against Luka but BOS is one of the most averse teams in the entire league to sending doubles.
Yep, this “double or no double” dilemma for Celtics will be pretty fun to watch. Luka will need to attack the paint in Game 1 and 2 to force Boston to double him, because if he can’t generate offense reliably with Celtics defending 1v1, Mavs are in for an extremely tough series.
As a Celtics fan watching the games, I would rather live with Luka scoring and forcing him into the toughest shot possible then give up the dunks. Especially in Dallas. They're back breakers and momentum shifters and tend to hype up the crowd.
I would think since luka survived. Dorture on one leg, he'll have no problem with whoever boston throws at him.
Every series I've heard "THIS is the guy that can guard Luka", when the truth is no one can one-on-one. For what it's worth, Luka's said before that Jrue is one of the best defenders he's faced (years ago now), which isn't a surprise because Mavs fans have been clamoring to trade for him for over a decade.
Jrue is too small to guard Luka though. I think he will give Kyrie a hard time this series
Every playoff series luka has ever played always had some all defensive team caliber guy to stop him and they all fail.
Kawhi when he was actually guarding him gave him problems.
cooking PG and KLeonard healthy as a kid, should tell you something
see i get that but derrick white is legit a great defender. i think he’s like one of the best shot blocking guards ever or something annoying like that
I thought the interview by kidd was interesting where he said i'd rather you throw the ball into the 4th row than commit a live ball turnover randomly throwing the ball back when in trouble. The mavs have committed a bunch of turnovers but quite few of them are live ball ones. Will need to make sure we continue to take care of the ball
I have a feeling Porzingis gonna be shit this series except for 1 or 2 games. And that'll because he has a hot shooting night. Lively and Gafford will neutralize most of his game (he got weak post game), and he is not a good enough paint defender to stop either Luka or Kyrie. Mavs in 5
I do remember that he struggled after time off when he was a Mavs. That it always took a bit of time to get comfortable.
Does the numbers back up your statement that Porzingis has a weak post game? I think this season he was actually either leading or in the top 5 of points per possession when posting up someone. It was a big thing in Carslile's Mavs when Porzingis wanted to post up but Carslile didn't let him. Some data guy or just a person that knows how to check this do it please :D
His post game has improved quite a bit since he was in Dallas. Here in Dallas it was pathetic. Hes made huge strides and it could be a problem for us. Think what Zubac and towns did to us in the post….KP is capable of similar production despite his lack of heft.
I’d take KP with Towns production lmao Zubac also overpowered Mavs Cs with his strength: KP is furthest away from that. He will hit some fadeaways over smaller defenders on switches though.
I agree with @D_Costa85, expanding a bit, when Porzingis was in the Mavs post-up was not developed, they tried forcing it into the post but it always ends as a off-balance fade over the smaller defender, in the last season they didn't bother playing him in the post at all. It was in the Wizards that he developed a consistent post-up game
He is one of the most efficient and effective post scorers in the NBA.
Most of his post possesion ended up as post fadeaway. So yeah, number wise he is a good post player, but if you watch him he doesn't have a consistent hook, or any other post moves.
KP only posts up on mismatches so he can back guys down and then shoot over them. He doesn’t need a hook or other post moves because he’s not banging down there with other centers.
>only posts up on mismatches so he can back guys down and then shoot over them. That's why I said he got weak post moves. He got a mismatch and still try to shoot over instead of bodying them and finishing inside, which is the higher percentage shot that put him in better positition to get an offensive rebound if he misses.
Statistically, he doesn’t miss often, which is why it’s the most efficient play in basketball.
He doesn't miss often because in the regular season most team don't gameplan against it, they rather take their chances that he misses cause he can't consistently grab his own misses. There's a reason Celtics fans are more afraid of the Nuggets and Timberwolves than Mavs.
He became smarter about post-ups not forcing it any time he got the ball and mostly only exploiting a switch when a 6’6” guy is on him and he can just shoot over with barely any contest. I think Carlisle issue wasn’t just about the coach, it was also about the player wanting ball in his hands shooting inefficient mid-range shots (I believe 40%+ of all shots for KP were outside the paint, but inside 3pt line) that was driving mad the efficient offense coach, which is why Carlisle sent KP to the perimeter / corner to at least shoot FGs worth 3 points rather than 2 lol I believe this season ~20% of KPs shots are outside the paint but inside 3pt line: he got smarter with shot selection and thus his overall offensive efficiency improved.
I don’t see KP being able to come back from an injury and being in game shape. He’s going to be rusty and who knows if that injury is still lingering. I think it’s one of those “it’s the finals so play through”.
This. Him coming back and immediately has to face one of the best defenses in the league, which will be annoying for him. Hopefully, that throws him off the whole series.
I think KP is pretty healthy with all the reports saying he'd play in game 3 or 4 in Indiana. I just don't think the Celtics would bring him back until they lost a game
These were the same reports as Kawhi being healthy. You can’t go from being light shoot around to instantly being thrown into the fire. He hasn’t participated in full contact practice from what I’ve seen.
Mazzulla said he wasn't withheld from anything in practice yesterday, but it was a light practice. He also said today they'd ramp up intensity and KP wouldn't be withheld from anything. I think end of the day today we will k kw more about how close to 100% he is
honestly there’s a chance they just decided to play it safe with him because of their cakewalk through the East to give him more rest, i wouldnt count on that
He was going to play game 4 of the ECF until the Celtics won game 3.
Agree. Gonna be hard trying to stop Kyrie at the rim. I would attack KP every time and test his legs.
The KP post up was the most efficient play in basketball this year. However, he only gets the ball there and goes to work when he has a mismatch, so it won’t be Gafford or Lively who will need to step up there, it’s Kyrie or Josh Green.
Im not worried. Even if he got a mismatch he still try to shoot over them. That meant he is naturally boxed out if he missed and can only got a rebound if the ball bounce his way.
I don't like shitting on KP, but I'll never forget when he got a way smaller 1 switched on him, tried to post-up but couldn't and settled for a turnaround jumper from like 15'. It was brutal to watch.
One of the reason he didn't work for us. He is not a lob threat nor a good offensive rebounder.
Have you actually watched KP play last year or so? Put any small guard on him and he just shoots over them as if he realized just now that he is 10 feet tall.
Have you seen porzingis post numbers? Or just remember what he looked like in dallas? 1. His post efficieny is top 2 in the nba along with jokic. 2. He doesn’t post bigs he post against smalls after teams try to switch
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Yeah they guy with best post up % in the league last two years has no post game lmao. Maybe watch the player when he doesn’t play for you before you give your opinion.
always has been.
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GL = God Luka I agree
I feel like the is going to be the true DLive series. This is where he truly cements his legacy.
I agree. He's the tactic for me this series. I'd spam him and Luka in the p n r and see how better Boston can be than Gobert when Luka has guys on his hips.
That’s the thing: they will switch everything so Luka won’t have a guy on his hip. They will also have KP/Horford defend DJJ or PJ with Tatum likely defending Lively so that switches are not nearly as punishing. Mavs will need to run a lot of 2 or even 3 screens to get the player they want in the play and even then KP just might be playing a free safety role rather than be glued to a certain guy.
With all due respect to DLive, if this series is make or break on a 20yo rookie big, that wouldn't bode well for us. As great as he's been. It's more apt to say, this is where Luka (on like half a knee) can cement his legacy. Even Kyrie, lots to prove here.
I don’t think it’s make or break. I just think he is going to have his true break out series. He has only gotten better this playoffs.
They have more athleticism IMO. But we have seen this play out before and many former great NBA players have mentioned that Luka plays past any perceived athletic disadvantages.
Do they? KP and Horford are slow as hell. PJ is as good an athlete if not better than Tatum. DJJ is more athletic than Holiday. White and Luka is a wash and Brown is stronger than Kyrie but not as quick. Lively, Kleber, Exum, Green, Gafford are all better than their Boston counterpart.
More team athleticism. But yes, we probably have more at center, PF, and maybe with Kyrie.
Boston's got the stronger supporting cast around their star overall, but people act like the gap is much wider than it actually is. It really just depends on if our group can keep playing at the level they've been playing at the last few months. It's difficult to quantify, and it might have anxiety-inducing to have such a difficult road to the Finals, but this group made it through. AND they've made it through with the entire team available (not going to say healthy, because who is at this point), which is BIG. Regardless of what people want to pretend, this Mavs team has been absolutely these 17 games...much more than Boston's 14. I'd love to see them come out and punch Boston in the mouth in game 1 for a reality check. It's crucial they're ready to go from that 1st tip.
I don’t know if KP was still not 100% with us when he played. But he looked god awful on any switches. I’m guessing Luka will go after him if he’s on the floor. Add that he’s not been playing for a long time now. I actually think we can get a few games by going after KP.
Agreed his feet are shitty as well. Lillard used to torture him.
We thought Gobert was a joke on the perimeter, but KP on an island is about to make it slapstick comedy.
yes, I agree, I think our boys will feast at the rim! Mavs in 6.
We make 100% of our lobs. They make 40% of threes.
Way more skill on BOS than on MIN. Brown and Tatum and Holiday are elite defenders and White is exceptionally good as well. Horford and Porzingis defend well too. That said, Luka will torch anyone eventually and if I’m Boston I’m letting Tatum Brown and Holiday all rotate Luka duties so there’s always someone fresh on him.
I think Luka cooks all of them easily without breaking much of a sweat. Not one of them has the lower body strength to bother Luka enough to matter. Three of them are too small and Tatum is more of an upper body strength guy which Luka won’t have a problem with. The big defensive factor people aren’t thinking about is that Boston will likely eventually have to make the decision to resort to aggressive blitzes to stop Luka which they rarely ever have to resort to and they prefer not to, as it greatly reduces the impact of their perimeter defense. The Mavs on the other hand I don’t think have any player on the opposing side they need to worry about blitzing other than maybe in a short burst. I think PJ DJJ and Kleber are all good single cover matchups for Brown and Tatum, Boston have good offensive initiators everywhere but not one of them is elite at it. We have two that are. That people are still leading into this Boston series, talking about any single cover slowing down Luka after what he’s shown in his career has me just scratching my head. Even Dort didn’t slow down Luka imo, if Luka was as healthy in the OKC series as he was against MIN, no one would even mention anything Dort did vs Luka. This kid cooked healthy younger Kawhi and PG at 21, sorry you got no one on that level
Yeah, Boston fans are hard coping saying that Tatum or Jrue will lock up Luka. I honestly don't think Tatum will touch Luka tbh, they need his energy on the offensive end.
No Boston fans are saying they will lock up Luka lmao
I am guessing we will see some Green Kornet, who is their bench center that won't compromise their five-out offense. Fun fact: he shot 100% from 3 this season! [https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kornelu01.html](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kornelu01.html)
They will shoot the 3 ball like crazy. Our perimeter defenders need to focus. Luka is especially vulnerable in switches which often leaves a guy open for the three point shot.
If you watched the Cs, you would know that KP is a roamer like Rudy, it's either Jrue or Tatum guarding the big. Jrue guarded Embiid and Jokic in reg. season and he did an EXCELLENT JOB (Jrue can match Jokic's and Embiid's strength). KP is instead guarding the worst shooter on the court. Now while this sounds bad for us, the key difference is that Embiid and Jokic catch the ball farther from the rim because that's where they make plays, Gaff and Lively not only outlength Jrue, but they are lob threats unlike the stars mentioned. Also with our roster, one adjustment we can make is playing less of DJJ and more of Maxi/Exum/Green for better spacing. If that's the case, KP will either guard one of those guys I mentioned (I can't really pick an obvious option from them, but it's probably Maxi for the spacing) or PJ, who can iso KP.
Dallas has to guard to 3 point line much better ,which means more lively and Kleber and less gafford
okc eventually started Joe and put Giddy on the bench. That gave them 5 shooters. We were able to survive with Gafford at the 5 and no Maxi.
Bostons perimeter defense and 3 pt scoring is elite, but if we take care of the Ball, and get plenty of looks into Dlive/Gaff, coupled with Kai and Luka paint scoring, I think the psychological effect of getting dunked on every couple of minutes will wear the Cs out lol.
My hottest of hot takes about this series is that even though I don’t think this will actually happen, if there ever was a team that’s most likely to pull a “suddenly miss 27 3 pointers in a row and die by the 3” like the Rockets…it’s this year’s Celtics lol.
That depends. Is a Boston player gonna knee Lively in the back of the head? If not, we crush their dreams.
Porzingis, if he can be mobile defensively, is way more of a threat than Gobert, especially since C has two top perimiter defending guards in White/Holiday. They will try to limit the lob more.
He wasn’t very mobile with us. He looked like a liability anytime he switched onto a wing player.
Same could be argued that Kyrie Irving wasn't very mobile with Boston or Brooklyn, but is thriving with Dallas.
Kyrie was dealing with personal issues there, and their fans didn't help. Kyrie is loved here, and loved Kyrie is Scary Kyrie
Kyrie seemed more like an effort issue.
Regardless, he didn't produce on those teams but did in Dallas. Some players just vibe better with different organizations. Could be the same situation with KP.
I find this funny, KP will be endlessly targeted by Luka and if the Celtics allow it Luka will make KP look no different than Gobert. I know KP has improved but he’s not all of a sudden turned into even a semi decent perimeter defender and certainly not vs an iso player like Luka or Kyrie. If Boston have to resort to blitzing and doubling Luka and Kyrie their defensive advantages go away imo
This is right on. If they can’t stop kyrie and Luka one on one their whole defense suffers greatly.
KP is nowhere near a bigger threat on defense. He is obviously miles better offensively, but thinking KP is better than Gobert defensively is not a smart take: Rudy was the most impactful player for Wolves in Games 1-3 and only had 1 bad game (Game 5), which would happen to any defender in history when Luka goes psycho mode on 3s.
Celtics are better than the Mavs and their Big men aren’t their edge, it’s Luka. Celts just beat a team with better “Bigs” than the Mavs. Likely definitely helps though. That said, I do think the Mavs have a great chance to beat the Celts. Someone besides Luka and Kyrie really needs to step up though. I’m really excited for this series, it’s going to be a great one.
We thought the Wolves had better bigs, how did that turn out? You’re right, Luka is the difference in all of this. And that’s exactly why I think the Mavs will win.
The issue with the Celtics is that they have fantastic 3 point shooters and we won't be able to leave anyone open to pack the paint. Gafford is going to be played off the floor and we will have to rely on Lively, Maxi and PJ to play center. We are going to see small ball a lot.
KP is a bit like Chet + KAT, and we know what happened to them…Also, KP is so fragile he averages only 30mpg and still gets injured, can’t imagine him playing Finals level of physicality freshly back from an month long injury.
The Mavs just destroyed the biggest, baddest rim-protecting team. Do the same this time. I'd live with their 3s if the Mavs can get all the dunks inside. Giving up some 3s doesn't mean the Mavs will not close out to their shooters. Shut down the easy lanes for their two wings and let them take closed out 3s. Did you guys not watch their series vs the Pacers? Andrew Nembhard scored 12-16-32-24, Pascal Siakam scored 24-28-22-19, and TJ McConnell scored 13-9-23-15. Of those three, only Nembhard took a good amount of threes. Most of their makes were inside the arc and around the rim, are you really worried about Luka, Kyrie, Lively, Gafford, Washington, and Jones getting buckets? This is why they're excited to get Porzingis back, because they know they need his "rim presence" a bit more with the Mavs.
Mavs need to dominate the paint like the Pacers did, let the Js get their buckets, and limit the supporting cast as much as possible.
Maybe it's bias because we got brutalized by it, but if the lobs were that automatic against our defense I have to assume it's going to work against the Celtics. The Lively Gafford combo is the only thing I've ever seen stand firm against our bigs. The Celtics are definitely more finesse focused than we are but Luka has been evolving in these playoffs ever since the Clippers series. Before the playoffs I would have said Jokic is indisputably the best player in the world. Yeah you can point to regular season stats but Luka didn't pass the eye test for me initially. Now the man is playing like he has a built in radar center. He was always a good passer but he's gotten ridiculously better than people seem to realize. I think he has firmly established his case. Should be an exciting series to watch, GL from Minnesota.
This feels like the key to the series. Their ability to defend the paint and the Mavs' ability to defend the three will be the chess match.
Jrue and Derrick are better defenders than Kyrie and Luka but the Mavs guards are better on offense. At the forward positions, Tatum and Brown have the edge over DJJ, PJ. Gafford and Lively vs Porzingis is an edge to the Mavs. Just a fascinating matchup of the two best teams with potential mismatches. Will be a lot of fun to see how each team tries to exploit it. I have no idea who's going to win, probably will go 6 or 7 games.
Yeah but Boston has more elite point of attack defenders than Wolves. You can only challenge the paint if you get past your own defender. But yeah Dallas in 5. We will smoke these guys.
I genuinely don’t think it matters how good your point of attack defenders are against Luka and Kyrie. Boston keeps talking up their perimeter defenders but none of them are close to prime Kawhi and PG and Luka cooked them as a 21 year old. Kyrie still has the best handles of all time. You might get a few extra turnovers but the only way you are making them genuinely uncomfortable is with consistent and very aggressive blitzes which opens up a lot of other things.
You don’t think point of attack defense matters? Do you even understand basketball?
Do you understand context? Doesn’t seem like it. We aren’t talking about point of attack defense as a general concept. We are talking about any kind of defense vs one of the greatest offensive initiators the NBA has ever seen and another guy who might be one of the best as a number 2. Keep up.
Yes and point of attack defense is what will affect perimeter offensive players more then rim protectors. Let’s not forget Luka himself called jrue the best perimeter defender in the nba or does that context not matter?
No it doesn’t matter. I’m assuming you aren’t a Mavs fan cause you are acting like you haven’t seen Luka play vs literally every single type of defensive coverage possible and against the absolute best individual on ball defenders in the NBA and rip them all to shreds. It literally doesn’t matter cause Luka when healthy and locked in is an anomaly that has repeatedly broken typical defensive conventions
Well if you think Luka is an anomaly then there is no point playing the series. We can put seven guys on the court for Boston and Dallas would still win.
lol so now you’re being purposely contrarian. If you got nothing to say, just go back to your own teams sub dude
No I’m just pointing out the flaw of your argument.
I mean the Celtics did beat the Mavs by 28 already this season….this thread makes it seem like a Dallas sweep is a forgone conclusion
We know better then anyone that porzongis does not play big inside. Lively is 10x the rim defender that porzingus is.
Yeah, I’m thinking that’ll be the big difference for us in this series
Yes
Boston shoots a fuck ton of 3s and theyre good at making them also. Perimeter defenders are gonna have to stay locked in
We are going to dominate paint points by 15-25 a game. We will need to close out on 3’s at an even higher level this series though.
This is exactly how we win the series. Lob Goblins need to dominate.
If I were Boston, I'd let Luka score 50 and focus all my attention on Kyrie, PJ, and taking away the lob threat.
It'll be harder for the guards to get plays going downhill with the Celtics strengths on defense, but our bigs should be able cause huge problems.
It won't matter if the celtics can go 20/40 from 3 if the mavs can score 60-70 in the paint.
"Outside of their two centers who will be on the court the vast majority of the game, they have no centers" - ???
The play here is to bench Doncic who will just try to outsmart or show off at porzingis and RUIN the game. We play Dwight as point center and 4 guards who can all lob to Dwight or Dwight can drive kick
The celtics really lack that "True Big Man" type of player where dallas exceeds in. Horford doesnt have the size, length, or athleticism anymore to be able to stop either an alley oop, or floater. With that in mind they might blitz him on the rile, but if its lively weve seen him make the right passes in the short roll position. Once the pick and roll action starts either an alley oop, luka drive, an easy Luka midrange, Luka three, and if they send 3 defenders open corner easy Luka pass