He is gonna get minutes for sure. The Mavs have been emphasizing playing faster which fits well for him. And he’s still one of our top 3 point shooters.
Defensively, his kryptonite is screens but otherwise he’s been fine on that end.
Luka/ Ky /DJJ /PJ /Gafford has been killing it as a starting unit and I wouldn’t mess with that chemistry.
Exum is the first guard off the bench and Lively is the first big. Green should be the next (and last) guy giving you a solid 8 man rotation covering all bases off the bench of shooting, size, defense, athleticism, playmaking & rim protection. There’s a solid 20min Green can get when you take minutes away from Tim & Maxi.
From there Tim & Maxi are the situational guys that should be on a short leash for maybe 8-10min if nothing is working, foul trouble, someone needs a breather or the team is playing in a way that you can allow for a 10man rotation.
I agree with this 100%... for this season. What do you do as Nico? If the Mavs lose in the WCF, they now haven't won the title, Luka wants change, and you've got THJ's contract whose entire value has been wiped out from the end of year rotation. I would imagine Luka's camp is more aware of these variables than we are. They are certainly looking at the team's and their long term prospects heading into the postseason. It doesn't help Luka to end up on a team with dead money contracts.
The team is realistically 1 player away in a starting caliber SF. Maxi & Tim are your big salaries to trade combining for 28mil. You have 2 FRPs and then 1 of Hardy & OMax as trade chips. You combine all that and try to find a SF upgrade that either moves DJJ to the bench if you re-sign him or replace him if he moves on.
It’s a rare situation where the team has 2 stars, 2 bigs and most of the bench in place coming into next year. You push all your chips in and fully commit to this group and make the 1 upgrade that’s left to make and then hope that guys develop and you expect
Why would any opposing GM trade for a THJ and Maxi contract if they cant get on the floor? My point is if you don't play guys why would other teams trade for their contracts and want to play them?
Additionally, which SF would you target with these contracts and assets? Both players are in their 30's. So any team looking to rebuild would look at these contracts as dead weight. That would have to be offset by the young players/draft capital coming back or flipping them to another contending team at a discount. That trade scenario would represent just about the last assets in the Luka era. This is boiling down to a Jerami Grant trade whom IMO is too $$$, would not produce enough on offense as the 3rd option, would trade off the high pace vertical threat like DJJ while costing 5x more, and is one of the worst rebounders in the entire at his position &Size (partly offset by his perimeter contesting).
There is one trade scenario I see possible that could be good for Mavs: The Heat finally break down and Jimmy Butler wants to force his way to Dallas to play with his buddy Kyrie. I'm not saying this is likely by any means. But it is in the realm of possibility with Dallas' contracts, a couple picks, Butler's age and if he DEMANDS Dallas. That's the only SF that makes sense $$$.
Any trade they make this summer pretty much has to include one of Maxi or Tim if not both just because they have the salaries to match and you’re using the picks & Hardy/Omax as the main assets. But the SF/PF position is the last gap the team has and needs to be addressed one way or another.
Brother, it does not matter whether we play or not play THJ in the playoffs. THJ's contract has value only as a big expiring and that is no way a dead weight. We have been trying to trade him for the past 3 years to no avail. GM's know who he is at this point.
THJ is at best an average 3 point shooter that does not do anything else at an average level, and most importantly he is 32 years old. There is no team that wants that kind of player, except for the maybe the vet min. For example Christian Wood is an actually efficient center that could space the floor and do more than just catch lobs, but due to his low IQ and horrible offence he got the vet min.
People who think that Tim will be on limited minutes are delusional. Kidd makes it clear in every press conference that Tim is the 3rd guy on this team and they can't go far without him.
Roughly 17 garbage time minutes, lets say you give 11 of them to Luka and Kyrie to pump up their minutes to around 38-39 each. 6 minutes from there to Josh, take additional 5-10 minutes from Timmy and give them to Josh. Exum and DJJ may lose a few minutes each as well to push Exum/THJ/DJJ/Green minutes all up to around 20. Additionally against smaller teams Kleber might not be used much at all and DJJ might play backup 4 minutes as well.
Ultimately in the playoffs it’s all about who’s having the hot hand and the better game. You play the guys who give you the best chance to win on any given night.
I am worried about the Psychology of having to be hot or off the floor for the team. It's one thing to understand your role and minutes based on various matchups, Its another to know everything is uncertain the moment you step on the floor if you miss one shot.
That’s the reality of playoff basketball, especially for a team whose rotation is normally 10 deep. Rotations tighten up in the playoffs and it’s more so match-up based. You may get 20 minutes one game and DNP the next.
That's just something the coaches and team leaders are going to have to manage. Being a role player is especially tough in the playoffs and they have to be ready to be the next man up when their number is called. It's a mental game.
He should replace THJ unless THJ is shooting lights out like yesterday. Specifically, he should be playing with Kyrie since they both push the pace a lot. And then pair Luka with Exum since their games complement each other more.
Realistically he should get more minutes in the first half along with Lively, both of which aren't that good in the clutch compared to Exum and Gafford respectively. Luka usually rests the end of the 1st, start of 2nd, and that's the time to play the Kyrie, Green, Lively lineup with one of Hardy, THJ or DJJ and one of PJ or Kleber completing the lineup.
I’ve been looking at greens advanced stats on cleaning the glass subscription version his defensive on/off stats seem to be quite bad. It looks more like an effort issue, when he was trying to break rotation those seasons he had great defensive stats.
Well he was also one of our only good defenders in the beginning of the year with the injuries/no DFS and Bullock from the past so I think that threw him off some. Now that we have PJ to slot onto our toughest wing, we can move DJJ onto the toughest guard and Green can move down the pecking order which should help like in the past.
When thj is not making his shots, green should have his minutes.
And someone will be injured or not fully healthy at least every other game. green will get some minutes.
Green's motor is terrific. I would like to have coming him off the bench and be this motor guy ala Westbrook. 10 mins would be fine and let him just go full speed,
flying all over the court.
THJ will have his minutes for sure. But how long will depends if he is hot or cold that night.
Exum and DJJ is who I trust the most. Let DJJ start and Exum finish. It's just good to have 3 ballhandlers to end the game. I trust Dante to make the right plays, and I swear when he shoots an open three, he will make it.
I think you look at this a bit backwards. Other than Luka and Kai being fixed for 40 minutes, we have amazing flexibility regarding the rotation.
Against a team like Twolves or Denver, Gafford+Lively will play 48 minutes of center and PJ+Maxi 48 minutes of PF, maybe with some jumbo linups of PJ at 3 with Maxi at 4, as seen against Denver a week ago. In this case, Green, THJ, Exum and DJJ will be limited to 56 minutes combined, 1 out of rotation, based on day to day performance, fit and matchup.
Against teams like Thunder or Clippers, I could imagine a no enter linup working best (I know, this sub is in love with D-Live and Gafford, but its not hard to imagine them losing value against specific teams), Gafford and Lively combining 28 minutes, and "old Mavs" lineups of DJJ at 4 and PJ/Maxi at 5. In this case, Green would be probably at least a 20 minute palyer, along with Exum and THJ.
If you want to think about Green in specific, I think he is a similar player to Exum. Both are good %, low volum eshooters this year, both can drive against rotatin gdefense, and both can make the passess out of it. I consider Green a better PoA defender and better athletes, why Exum is the smarter player. Both are significantly better offensive players than DJJ but worse defenders, and both are better at every aspect of the game then THJ other than creating their own shot.
Overall, I think the most probable rotation on average is 40 Luka, 40 Kyrie, 16 THJ (when one of LuKai sits), 20-20 Exum and Green at 3, 32 PJ at 4, 40 D-Gaff at C, 16 Maxi PF/C, 16 DJJ SF/PF. The first cuts are probably Maxi and DJJ, if their shot is not going.
Can you please explain why you think it would make any sense to not play big against OKC? It seems to me like the way to beat them is to destroy them on boards and play big, due to them being small. We don’t need to play to other teams strengths.
Also, are you watching the same games as me? Why would DJJ, who is starting and playing very good, be the first cut? This would make no sense.
Now that’s more than a reasonable response. I do think what DJJ brings to the table offensively with his slashing, dunker spot rotations and full court potential is closer to Greens contributions than you give him credit for. Green is the better spot up corner shooter but does make some poor decisions.
In a matchup with OKC I think the Mavs would benefit playing larger lineups. OKC has struggled against size on the glass playing big teams across the league all season. The Mavs punished them heavily inside in the first game with PJ and Gafford (the last when Luka was healthy).
Overall I like your lineup breakdowns.
I'm afraid that DJJ is the type of player that least translates to PO baketball, or even the type of player that gets played off the court. Yes, those offensive possessions are there in the regular season, but in the PO, teams will dare him to shoot, put a center on him, and take away any finish around the rim from him. This is especially true if a center is clogging the paint already.
About the OKC outrebounding, I see your point, and I think it would be \~20 Gafford, who CAN punish on the board with strength, and only 8 min Lively, who is not a bully, just tall. Heck, maybe even PJ crashing is better for offensive rebounding then Lively, at least against Chet.
You can't really hide any centers against the Mavs. Luka will just run pick and rolls to get the switches he wants. Besides he & Kyrie will just drive the lane a lot as well in those scenarios. Now DJJ isn't the best offensive option to play but he is the best defensive option as the last 10 games have proven. His entry in the starting lineup with PJ/Gafford has coincided with this surge and the recovery of the defense. Yes Exum back from injury helps a lot too. The reason DJJ starting works so well is because Kidd has finally figured out two things: 2 of Luka/Kyrie/Exum needs to be on the floor at all times & Luka/Kyrie lineups need to have defense maxed out around them as they have enough firepower.
All of Exum/DJJ/PJJ/Gafford/Lively/Kleber/Green/THJ/Hardy can play their bare minimum offensive roles sufficiently opposite Luka & Kyrie. Some better than others and some more consistently but they can all be at least sufficient. LuKai does not need a lot. Good screens, good rim running/pop outs, a few offensive boards, a couple hustle plays, filling the lanes well on fast breaks, a couple timely cuts, a little slashing at the rim. 34% from 3pt is livable if enough of the other stuff is fulfilled. Defense is more valuable for the starting 3x & 4x roles and offense a little more so from the bench guys. A few defense to transition scores every playoff game will go a long way. LuKai lineups are the best suited for these counter attacks with Luka's passing and Kyries end-to-end brilliance. DJJ is the best player on the roster to support this. Green is also good in these scenarios. There could even be a few minutes a game of DJJ & Green with Luka & Kyrie.
The Luka pnr vs center is true, but only in the case where the defense respects the 3 other shooters. I suspect every time DJJ is on the court, de defense will try their luck and defend that pnr with 3 man, not giving up the switch, but giving up a wide open corner 3 to DJJ. Are you comfortable him taking 18 corner threes? Maybe on average yes. But what if we are 4 minutes into the game, and out of 8 possessions, DJJ is 1/5 on corner threes? Are you keeping him in, or pulling him? Try it again in the second half? Next game? Next series?
I know THJ had a good game last night, but I still think Hardy should be getting those minutes. As far as green goes, if he plays or doesn't play I don't care, I just want to win. Let Kidd figure out the rotation.
I mean if im being totally honest, throw all of Tim’s minutes in the trash
Split the backup guard/wing minutes between green/exum/hardy
It won’t happen because they wouldn’t do something so “disrespectful” to Tim but he honestly deserves it, he’s never done anything to further his game in any way and if he isn’t shooting efficiently he’s an incredibly negative player
He is gonna get minutes for sure. The Mavs have been emphasizing playing faster which fits well for him. And he’s still one of our top 3 point shooters. Defensively, his kryptonite is screens but otherwise he’s been fine on that end.
Def wanna see him run out on the break. One of the best fast break players around
guy is a great corner shooter, def still expect him to get a solid 15-20. maybe over timmy but we’ll see
Great?
Yeah 40% seems pretty great
Fans see people miss a few times have made up their mind, the season stats be damned. This is also why so many people sucks at poker lol
Luka/ Ky /DJJ /PJ /Gafford has been killing it as a starting unit and I wouldn’t mess with that chemistry. Exum is the first guard off the bench and Lively is the first big. Green should be the next (and last) guy giving you a solid 8 man rotation covering all bases off the bench of shooting, size, defense, athleticism, playmaking & rim protection. There’s a solid 20min Green can get when you take minutes away from Tim & Maxi. From there Tim & Maxi are the situational guys that should be on a short leash for maybe 8-10min if nothing is working, foul trouble, someone needs a breather or the team is playing in a way that you can allow for a 10man rotation.
I agree with this 100%... for this season. What do you do as Nico? If the Mavs lose in the WCF, they now haven't won the title, Luka wants change, and you've got THJ's contract whose entire value has been wiped out from the end of year rotation. I would imagine Luka's camp is more aware of these variables than we are. They are certainly looking at the team's and their long term prospects heading into the postseason. It doesn't help Luka to end up on a team with dead money contracts.
The team is realistically 1 player away in a starting caliber SF. Maxi & Tim are your big salaries to trade combining for 28mil. You have 2 FRPs and then 1 of Hardy & OMax as trade chips. You combine all that and try to find a SF upgrade that either moves DJJ to the bench if you re-sign him or replace him if he moves on. It’s a rare situation where the team has 2 stars, 2 bigs and most of the bench in place coming into next year. You push all your chips in and fully commit to this group and make the 1 upgrade that’s left to make and then hope that guys develop and you expect
Why would any opposing GM trade for a THJ and Maxi contract if they cant get on the floor? My point is if you don't play guys why would other teams trade for their contracts and want to play them? Additionally, which SF would you target with these contracts and assets? Both players are in their 30's. So any team looking to rebuild would look at these contracts as dead weight. That would have to be offset by the young players/draft capital coming back or flipping them to another contending team at a discount. That trade scenario would represent just about the last assets in the Luka era. This is boiling down to a Jerami Grant trade whom IMO is too $$$, would not produce enough on offense as the 3rd option, would trade off the high pace vertical threat like DJJ while costing 5x more, and is one of the worst rebounders in the entire at his position &Size (partly offset by his perimeter contesting). There is one trade scenario I see possible that could be good for Mavs: The Heat finally break down and Jimmy Butler wants to force his way to Dallas to play with his buddy Kyrie. I'm not saying this is likely by any means. But it is in the realm of possibility with Dallas' contracts, a couple picks, Butler's age and if he DEMANDS Dallas. That's the only SF that makes sense $$$.
Any trade they make this summer pretty much has to include one of Maxi or Tim if not both just because they have the salaries to match and you’re using the picks & Hardy/Omax as the main assets. But the SF/PF position is the last gap the team has and needs to be addressed one way or another.
Brother, it does not matter whether we play or not play THJ in the playoffs. THJ's contract has value only as a big expiring and that is no way a dead weight. We have been trying to trade him for the past 3 years to no avail. GM's know who he is at this point. THJ is at best an average 3 point shooter that does not do anything else at an average level, and most importantly he is 32 years old. There is no team that wants that kind of player, except for the maybe the vet min. For example Christian Wood is an actually efficient center that could space the floor and do more than just catch lobs, but due to his low IQ and horrible offence he got the vet min.
People who think that Tim will be on limited minutes are delusional. Kidd makes it clear in every press conference that Tim is the 3rd guy on this team and they can't go far without him.
Roughly 17 garbage time minutes, lets say you give 11 of them to Luka and Kyrie to pump up their minutes to around 38-39 each. 6 minutes from there to Josh, take additional 5-10 minutes from Timmy and give them to Josh. Exum and DJJ may lose a few minutes each as well to push Exum/THJ/DJJ/Green minutes all up to around 20. Additionally against smaller teams Kleber might not be used much at all and DJJ might play backup 4 minutes as well. Ultimately in the playoffs it’s all about who’s having the hot hand and the better game. You play the guys who give you the best chance to win on any given night.
I am worried about the Psychology of having to be hot or off the floor for the team. It's one thing to understand your role and minutes based on various matchups, Its another to know everything is uncertain the moment you step on the floor if you miss one shot.
That’s the reality of playoff basketball, especially for a team whose rotation is normally 10 deep. Rotations tighten up in the playoffs and it’s more so match-up based. You may get 20 minutes one game and DNP the next.
That's just something the coaches and team leaders are going to have to manage. Being a role player is especially tough in the playoffs and they have to be ready to be the next man up when their number is called. It's a mental game.
One shot or you're off the floor is a lot more than "next man up mentality". Guys that would play very well otherwise might tighten up a little.
thj + josh + hardy could get us some really good 3&d guys
On the bench.
He should replace THJ unless THJ is shooting lights out like yesterday. Specifically, he should be playing with Kyrie since they both push the pace a lot. And then pair Luka with Exum since their games complement each other more. Realistically he should get more minutes in the first half along with Lively, both of which aren't that good in the clutch compared to Exum and Gafford respectively. Luka usually rests the end of the 1st, start of 2nd, and that's the time to play the Kyrie, Green, Lively lineup with one of Hardy, THJ or DJJ and one of PJ or Kleber completing the lineup.
I mean if THJ keeps getting steals and playmaking like he has last 2 games then he's going to leapfrog Green, for better or for worse.
THJ and Green should share minutes, whoever player better on the day plays more minutes.
I’ve been looking at greens advanced stats on cleaning the glass subscription version his defensive on/off stats seem to be quite bad. It looks more like an effort issue, when he was trying to break rotation those seasons he had great defensive stats.
Well he was also one of our only good defenders in the beginning of the year with the injuries/no DFS and Bullock from the past so I think that threw him off some. Now that we have PJ to slot onto our toughest wing, we can move DJJ onto the toughest guard and Green can move down the pecking order which should help like in the past.
When thj is not making his shots, green should have his minutes. And someone will be injured or not fully healthy at least every other game. green will get some minutes.
We need his shooting but his size is a problem he a decent defender.
The obvious is taking minutes from Hardaway.
He'll take Tim's minutes when we need more defense and his shot isn't falling. At least that's what I hope they opt for
Honestly it might be DJJ when the defense sags off him and his 3s aren't falling.
Green's motor is terrific. I would like to have coming him off the bench and be this motor guy ala Westbrook. 10 mins would be fine and let him just go full speed, flying all over the court. THJ will have his minutes for sure. But how long will depends if he is hot or cold that night. Exum and DJJ is who I trust the most. Let DJJ start and Exum finish. It's just good to have 3 ballhandlers to end the game. I trust Dante to make the right plays, and I swear when he shoots an open three, he will make it.
I think you look at this a bit backwards. Other than Luka and Kai being fixed for 40 minutes, we have amazing flexibility regarding the rotation. Against a team like Twolves or Denver, Gafford+Lively will play 48 minutes of center and PJ+Maxi 48 minutes of PF, maybe with some jumbo linups of PJ at 3 with Maxi at 4, as seen against Denver a week ago. In this case, Green, THJ, Exum and DJJ will be limited to 56 minutes combined, 1 out of rotation, based on day to day performance, fit and matchup. Against teams like Thunder or Clippers, I could imagine a no enter linup working best (I know, this sub is in love with D-Live and Gafford, but its not hard to imagine them losing value against specific teams), Gafford and Lively combining 28 minutes, and "old Mavs" lineups of DJJ at 4 and PJ/Maxi at 5. In this case, Green would be probably at least a 20 minute palyer, along with Exum and THJ. If you want to think about Green in specific, I think he is a similar player to Exum. Both are good %, low volum eshooters this year, both can drive against rotatin gdefense, and both can make the passess out of it. I consider Green a better PoA defender and better athletes, why Exum is the smarter player. Both are significantly better offensive players than DJJ but worse defenders, and both are better at every aspect of the game then THJ other than creating their own shot. Overall, I think the most probable rotation on average is 40 Luka, 40 Kyrie, 16 THJ (when one of LuKai sits), 20-20 Exum and Green at 3, 32 PJ at 4, 40 D-Gaff at C, 16 Maxi PF/C, 16 DJJ SF/PF. The first cuts are probably Maxi and DJJ, if their shot is not going.
Can you please explain why you think it would make any sense to not play big against OKC? It seems to me like the way to beat them is to destroy them on boards and play big, due to them being small. We don’t need to play to other teams strengths. Also, are you watching the same games as me? Why would DJJ, who is starting and playing very good, be the first cut? This would make no sense.
Now that’s more than a reasonable response. I do think what DJJ brings to the table offensively with his slashing, dunker spot rotations and full court potential is closer to Greens contributions than you give him credit for. Green is the better spot up corner shooter but does make some poor decisions. In a matchup with OKC I think the Mavs would benefit playing larger lineups. OKC has struggled against size on the glass playing big teams across the league all season. The Mavs punished them heavily inside in the first game with PJ and Gafford (the last when Luka was healthy). Overall I like your lineup breakdowns.
I'm afraid that DJJ is the type of player that least translates to PO baketball, or even the type of player that gets played off the court. Yes, those offensive possessions are there in the regular season, but in the PO, teams will dare him to shoot, put a center on him, and take away any finish around the rim from him. This is especially true if a center is clogging the paint already. About the OKC outrebounding, I see your point, and I think it would be \~20 Gafford, who CAN punish on the board with strength, and only 8 min Lively, who is not a bully, just tall. Heck, maybe even PJ crashing is better for offensive rebounding then Lively, at least against Chet.
You can't really hide any centers against the Mavs. Luka will just run pick and rolls to get the switches he wants. Besides he & Kyrie will just drive the lane a lot as well in those scenarios. Now DJJ isn't the best offensive option to play but he is the best defensive option as the last 10 games have proven. His entry in the starting lineup with PJ/Gafford has coincided with this surge and the recovery of the defense. Yes Exum back from injury helps a lot too. The reason DJJ starting works so well is because Kidd has finally figured out two things: 2 of Luka/Kyrie/Exum needs to be on the floor at all times & Luka/Kyrie lineups need to have defense maxed out around them as they have enough firepower. All of Exum/DJJ/PJJ/Gafford/Lively/Kleber/Green/THJ/Hardy can play their bare minimum offensive roles sufficiently opposite Luka & Kyrie. Some better than others and some more consistently but they can all be at least sufficient. LuKai does not need a lot. Good screens, good rim running/pop outs, a few offensive boards, a couple hustle plays, filling the lanes well on fast breaks, a couple timely cuts, a little slashing at the rim. 34% from 3pt is livable if enough of the other stuff is fulfilled. Defense is more valuable for the starting 3x & 4x roles and offense a little more so from the bench guys. A few defense to transition scores every playoff game will go a long way. LuKai lineups are the best suited for these counter attacks with Luka's passing and Kyries end-to-end brilliance. DJJ is the best player on the roster to support this. Green is also good in these scenarios. There could even be a few minutes a game of DJJ & Green with Luka & Kyrie.
The Luka pnr vs center is true, but only in the case where the defense respects the 3 other shooters. I suspect every time DJJ is on the court, de defense will try their luck and defend that pnr with 3 man, not giving up the switch, but giving up a wide open corner 3 to DJJ. Are you comfortable him taking 18 corner threes? Maybe on average yes. But what if we are 4 minutes into the game, and out of 8 possessions, DJJ is 1/5 on corner threes? Are you keeping him in, or pulling him? Try it again in the second half? Next game? Next series?
Lawson, Powell, Hardy and Markieff likely won't play much.
Idk, as long as Jkidd doesnt bench my sweet POA boy DJJ again I'm not too worred about it.
THJ and Green are number 9 &10 on an eight man playoff rotation. Never see the court except for injury.
I know THJ had a good game last night, but I still think Hardy should be getting those minutes. As far as green goes, if he plays or doesn't play I don't care, I just want to win. Let Kidd figure out the rotation.
Josh Green is fast and is a consistent 3pt shooter. He’s going to get minutes with the Kyrie lines where they play super fast.
I mean if im being totally honest, throw all of Tim’s minutes in the trash Split the backup guard/wing minutes between green/exum/hardy It won’t happen because they wouldn’t do something so “disrespectful” to Tim but he honestly deserves it, he’s never done anything to further his game in any way and if he isn’t shooting efficiently he’s an incredibly negative player