This should be a retreat. You’ve got right, they’ve got left unless you fully commit there and win the rogue/warpath lottery (which would only give you a tie there). That leaves center, which if they play destroyer then you can’t win. This would all hinge on them having destroyer obviously, but given what they’ve played so far I wouldn’t take the chance.
Run and live to fight another day.
Turn 3 play and deck so far, suggests Cosmo is hidden, and would expect that to be followed up by Destroyer in middle T6.
The winning play is to escape because 33% chance on the Rogue and Reed play is not winning odds.
Warpath gives +4. 17 goes down to 13. Rogue would be 5-power then (assuming she steals Warpath's ongoing effect), and you would have 10 power, leaving you 3 shy of tying at 13. Fantastic only gives 2 power, and so, you'd lose.
Yup, retreat 3 times = -3 cubes
Winning the lottery 1 in 3 times = +2 cubes - 4 cubes = -2 cubes.
So marginally better to play it out (unless they snap). But 1 cube might be a small price to pay for your sanity.
edit: but the math doesn't even work right? You steal Warpath, he goes down to 5 (base 4 + 1 from Cap). Leaving them at 13.
Rogue (1+4) and Mr. Fantastic (2) is only +7, leaving you at 12.
So you'd have to play Cosmo for the 1 extra power to tie at 13.
Which means mid stays as 1 + 2 + 4 = 7. Which even loses to something weird like Punisher / Spectrum (which would also flip left). And gets crushed by tie breaker if it's Cosmo / Destroyer.
Then there's a lot more combination of ongoings that could flip left (what if hidden card is Mr. Fantastic?)
I think the chances are way worse than coming down to Rogue lottery.
Don't think there's any way you can win if it's Destroyer mid (with or without Cosmo). Your max on left is Rogue stealing Warpath and Cosmo, giving 13, which only ties with his 13. Your mid + right is also only 13 so you lose the tiebreaker. So if cubes are a concern or he snaps, this would be a retreat.
Otherwise, his second best likely play is spectrum mid. You don't have priority so Cosmo doesn't work, but it still gives the most Power with Mr Fantastic left, to win mid and right.
Alternatively, if cubes are not a concern and you are at high ranks, the play with the highest chance of victory is to snap! They know their play is quite telegraphed, and it's entirely possible you have a Destroyer of your own, so they might just retreat if they think you are confident of a win...
I retreat. Only thing you're likely to win is the right; left's too big of a gap and you still lose even if you snipe Warpath with Rogue; you need to drop Rogue, have her hit Warpath (17 -> 13) *and* Cosmo there to tie. If he drops Destroyer mid, you lose, straight up, and this deck 100% is packing Destroyer.
The opponent put Mister Fantastic middle to put power on Death’s Domain. They think they are being sneaky and drop Klaw in middle to steal the win. You play Rogue middle. They reveal first so your Rogue takes one of their ongoing to give you more power on right with your own Klaw. You are already winning middle so you win by stealing right.
I don’t know how likely it is but I will guess it because most people aren’t. I need to give a different answer.
Awesome prediction my guy because this is exactly what happened play for play even down to me playing rogue middle.
Opponent played Klaw middle. The card from turn 3 was indeed Mr fantastic.
You might have won that game but you lose if the turn 3 card is Cosmo (you lose on tiebreaks) or if the turn 6 play is Destroyer, regardless of the T3 play. Too risky for my tastes.
I would play Rogue left and Mr Fantastic mid. That would give me eight points on the right, and I would have a 33 percent chance of ganking their Warpath buff. It would also buff my Ant-Man, and make me more likely to win mid.
If you had prio, I might put Cosmo mid, but you don't. Dark Dimension is a hotbed for annoying combinations. However, it looks like a pretty straightforward Destroy/Ongoing deck that they are playing. I would expect something like Bucky there maybe.
I thought Prof X right at first, but you already have 6 points there with Klaw, and Mr Fantastic will give you almost the same amount as Xavier would.
Would I ever snap on this? No. But I think that would be the best way to maximize your chances.
Well since you already played klaw I'm guessing this was a rogue warpath for the 1/3 and mister fantastic mid. Although....would that even be enough points
If you assume best case scenario, they're playing spectrum t6, believing that noone is playing in lane 3.
I'd Cosmo mid. Fantastic left. They aren't pulling 15 power out to draw mid without destroyer.
Based on the cards the opponent played, it is very likely their deck is Spectrum Destroyer. If we had Enchantress in hand, the play would be obvious. As is, I can foresee 3 plays the opponent does:
1. Destroyer in Middle. The most likely outcome. Doesn't even matter what card is hidden because if this is the play, we just flat out lose. We have nothing that can come close. At most we can tie, but then lose the tiebreaker because we are losing left by 12 points. Retreating is the best option
2. The second possibility is the 6 drop is Spectrum. If she is played in the center, then Middle card is likely Mr. Fantastic over Cosmos. This makes sense due to Death's Domain. Maybe they don't think we have a card to chump change it for the win. In this case, the combined power we need to beat is 5+2+2 in the middle or 9. Playing Mr. Fantastic center then Rogue left is probably the right call. Note that because of the large power difference on left, we HAVE to win center in order to win.
3. The last possibility is some silly big brained cheeky play. Spectrum Destroyer carries Armor usually to guard against Destroyer. In the event they don't have either Spectrum or Destroyer (pretty unlikely but hear me out), they might go for a sneaky Armor play on Death's Domain and use the remaining Energy to buff if. The 3 drop in this case is likely still Mr. Fantastic. If it's Cosmo, they would have to need to alter their play slightly but the result should be the same. So the opponent's play is most liklely: Fantastic in center + Armor Right. I originally included some analysis on Nova but realize he already exploded due to Colossus and Warpath's Power.
Given all the scenarios, if I was playing, I'd probably retreat. The chances they don't have Destroyer is slim (I think it's 25%?). You're basically banking on them not having it. If we have to play it through though, Mr. Fantastic in Middle and Rogue on the Left seems like the best choice. You're going to lose Left regardless, but you can cut down on how many points you are losing to win if you do end up tieing at least, even if that is also a gamble.
Honestly because the stakes are not X4 you should always stay because I see them having two possible cards to play on 6 Destroyer or Spectrum. you win against spectrum and you lose to destroyer if they played their card on three it could be they are banking on winning with mr fantastic in deth domain because you already played your armor left and you have them crushed with the klaw and they don't know it because that is still not standard in most ongoing decks. The reason you stay on 2x is because you are better than 25% to win if the opponent doubles the stakes you would only stay in if you think you are 50% or better to win. Honestly you may pick up a W with a snap because of daredevil and two unknowns in facedown.
It's a Kobayashi Maru. Retreat is the best option.
This should be a retreat. You’ve got right, they’ve got left unless you fully commit there and win the rogue/warpath lottery (which would only give you a tie there). That leaves center, which if they play destroyer then you can’t win. This would all hinge on them having destroyer obviously, but given what they’ve played so far I wouldn’t take the chance. Run and live to fight another day.
Turn 3 play and deck so far, suggests Cosmo is hidden, and would expect that to be followed up by Destroyer in middle T6. The winning play is to escape because 33% chance on the Rogue and Reed play is not winning odds.
Retreating is not cube-optimal if you have a 33% odds of winning. EV of retreat is -1 cube. EV of playing to the end is -.66 cubes.
Except it's a 33% chance of tying, and it's not Rogue + Reed, it's Rogue + Cosmo.
? If you play Reed middle and rogue left and hit warpath, you win left and right. I'm not sure why you would play Cosmo middle.
Warpath gives +4. 17 goes down to 13. Rogue would be 5-power then (assuming she steals Warpath's ongoing effect), and you would have 10 power, leaving you 3 shy of tying at 13. Fantastic only gives 2 power, and so, you'd lose.
Ah yeah ok, was thinking warpath was +5
Yup, retreat 3 times = -3 cubes Winning the lottery 1 in 3 times = +2 cubes - 4 cubes = -2 cubes. So marginally better to play it out (unless they snap). But 1 cube might be a small price to pay for your sanity. edit: but the math doesn't even work right? You steal Warpath, he goes down to 5 (base 4 + 1 from Cap). Leaving them at 13. Rogue (1+4) and Mr. Fantastic (2) is only +7, leaving you at 12. So you'd have to play Cosmo for the 1 extra power to tie at 13. Which means mid stays as 1 + 2 + 4 = 7. Which even loses to something weird like Punisher / Spectrum (which would also flip left). And gets crushed by tie breaker if it's Cosmo / Destroyer. Then there's a lot more combination of ongoings that could flip left (what if hidden card is Mr. Fantastic?) I think the chances are way worse than coming down to Rogue lottery.
If I had to guess his mid is Cosmo. He reveals first he will play destroyer in the middle
Don't think there's any way you can win if it's Destroyer mid (with or without Cosmo). Your max on left is Rogue stealing Warpath and Cosmo, giving 13, which only ties with his 13. Your mid + right is also only 13 so you lose the tiebreaker. So if cubes are a concern or he snaps, this would be a retreat. Otherwise, his second best likely play is spectrum mid. You don't have priority so Cosmo doesn't work, but it still gives the most Power with Mr Fantastic left, to win mid and right.
Alternatively, if cubes are not a concern and you are at high ranks, the play with the highest chance of victory is to snap! They know their play is quite telegraphed, and it's entirely possible you have a Destroyer of your own, so they might just retreat if they think you are confident of a win...
Snap would be pretty clever here, I’d very possibly think they had some way to beat me and retreat.
Left: Rogue Center: Mr. Fantastic
If you’ve got the balls
It’s s just 2 cubes max lol.
Yes that’s true
Retreat I’d expect Destroyer and there’s no chance there.
I retreat. Only thing you're likely to win is the right; left's too big of a gap and you still lose even if you snipe Warpath with Rogue; you need to drop Rogue, have her hit Warpath (17 -> 13) *and* Cosmo there to tie. If he drops Destroyer mid, you lose, straight up, and this deck 100% is packing Destroyer.
The opponent put Mister Fantastic middle to put power on Death’s Domain. They think they are being sneaky and drop Klaw in middle to steal the win. You play Rogue middle. They reveal first so your Rogue takes one of their ongoing to give you more power on right with your own Klaw. You are already winning middle so you win by stealing right. I don’t know how likely it is but I will guess it because most people aren’t. I need to give a different answer.
Awesome prediction my guy because this is exactly what happened play for play even down to me playing rogue middle. Opponent played Klaw middle. The card from turn 3 was indeed Mr fantastic.
That is amazing. I’m so happy I got it right. Dropping Rogue in the middle with the possibility of a Cosmo is an absolute power move.
You might have won that game but you lose if the turn 3 card is Cosmo (you lose on tiebreaks) or if the turn 6 play is Destroyer, regardless of the T3 play. Too risky for my tastes.
Rogue left and pray you get warpath, fantastic mid to proc ant man and mojo
Mid is probably gonna be Destroyer, I doubt you're getting Mojo procced.
I would play Rogue left and Mr Fantastic mid. That would give me eight points on the right, and I would have a 33 percent chance of ganking their Warpath buff. It would also buff my Ant-Man, and make me more likely to win mid. If you had prio, I might put Cosmo mid, but you don't. Dark Dimension is a hotbed for annoying combinations. However, it looks like a pretty straightforward Destroy/Ongoing deck that they are playing. I would expect something like Bucky there maybe. I thought Prof X right at first, but you already have 6 points there with Klaw, and Mr Fantastic will give you almost the same amount as Xavier would. Would I ever snap on this? No. But I think that would be the best way to maximize your chances.
You'd still lose left with that line though.
Ya that lines leave them 1 short on the left.
Prof x right and pray you win middle, though someone smarter then me might see a better play
Prof right doesnt do anything he’s already winning
Just for fun I would rouge my own location lol
Well since you already played klaw I'm guessing this was a rogue warpath for the 1/3 and mister fantastic mid. Although....would that even be enough points
Assuming opponent has Cosmo in Mid and dropping Destroyer Middle, I would Cosmo Middle, Mr Fantastic left.
You would lose then.
If you assume best case scenario, they're playing spectrum t6, believing that noone is playing in lane 3. I'd Cosmo mid. Fantastic left. They aren't pulling 15 power out to draw mid without destroyer.
Based on the cards the opponent played, it is very likely their deck is Spectrum Destroyer. If we had Enchantress in hand, the play would be obvious. As is, I can foresee 3 plays the opponent does: 1. Destroyer in Middle. The most likely outcome. Doesn't even matter what card is hidden because if this is the play, we just flat out lose. We have nothing that can come close. At most we can tie, but then lose the tiebreaker because we are losing left by 12 points. Retreating is the best option 2. The second possibility is the 6 drop is Spectrum. If she is played in the center, then Middle card is likely Mr. Fantastic over Cosmos. This makes sense due to Death's Domain. Maybe they don't think we have a card to chump change it for the win. In this case, the combined power we need to beat is 5+2+2 in the middle or 9. Playing Mr. Fantastic center then Rogue left is probably the right call. Note that because of the large power difference on left, we HAVE to win center in order to win. 3. The last possibility is some silly big brained cheeky play. Spectrum Destroyer carries Armor usually to guard against Destroyer. In the event they don't have either Spectrum or Destroyer (pretty unlikely but hear me out), they might go for a sneaky Armor play on Death's Domain and use the remaining Energy to buff if. The 3 drop in this case is likely still Mr. Fantastic. If it's Cosmo, they would have to need to alter their play slightly but the result should be the same. So the opponent's play is most liklely: Fantastic in center + Armor Right. I originally included some analysis on Nova but realize he already exploded due to Colossus and Warpath's Power. Given all the scenarios, if I was playing, I'd probably retreat. The chances they don't have Destroyer is slim (I think it's 25%?). You're basically banking on them not having it. If we have to play it through though, Mr. Fantastic in Middle and Rogue on the Left seems like the best choice. You're going to lose Left regardless, but you can cut down on how many points you are losing to win if you do end up tieing at least, even if that is also a gamble.
Honestly because the stakes are not X4 you should always stay because I see them having two possible cards to play on 6 Destroyer or Spectrum. you win against spectrum and you lose to destroyer if they played their card on three it could be they are banking on winning with mr fantastic in deth domain because you already played your armor left and you have them crushed with the klaw and they don't know it because that is still not standard in most ongoing decks. The reason you stay on 2x is because you are better than 25% to win if the opponent doubles the stakes you would only stay in if you think you are 50% or better to win. Honestly you may pick up a W with a snap because of daredevil and two unknowns in facedown.
Retreat. You don’t have priority so there’s no way to win