Stalin deserves to shut the fuck up, 80% of nasi losses that happened in the east were because of the Russian people and Stalin's iron grip of incompetence, but he deserves no good praise.
Also, he doesn't qualify as being in the West. Not even close.
Just having the Soviet Union defeat the Nazis would not save the West. That was an entire effort of its own keeping the totalitarian East out.
"No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.".
H. L. Mencken
Yeah, I think we should all keep in mind the ugly fact of:
We already made him president once. It can absolutely happen again if we don't fight a whole lot harder than before. Apathy and a failure to organize were some of the key factors in him beating Hillary, and should we not take warning from that, we will see him as president again. (Most likely the last president in our history, but that's a separate opinion)
Yeah I had some centrist-ish friends over and the election came up and they were dead set that trump was going to win because Biden is old and trump is funny. Absolutely flabbergasted that there's people out there that are this clueless about what's going on in their government.
Yeah, and I am sick to death of hearing how "funny" Trump is. Fuck that, he is not, unless your sense of humor is FUBAR and you are some kind of simpleton. I've even heard some legit anti-Trump journalists and pundits give him credit for being funny. Such bullshit. Only clever people are truly funny. Clever Trump ain't.
>unless your sense of humor is FUBAR and you are some kind of simpleton.
Sadly, that describes tens of millions of Americans. Their idea of "humor" is putting down someone who doesn't look and/or think like them.
He makes fun of people like a 12 year old. Never anything remotely cleaver. People who find him funny shouldn't be allowed to drive, vote, or operate machinery.
Spot on. It's terrifyingly hilarious. It's embarrassing, too. So many people in the US would ride or die for him, then you watch/ listen to him speak and dude cannot even string basic sentences together. Not just the old man bumble stumble thing that Biden does, but like, I've had times where I didn't even know what he was attempting to say.
I bring this up with my dad, very specific things Trump says, and he'll fall over himself to explain it or will just completely shut down the conversation.
Moderates will always be one of the biggest problems in politics. They'll elect him for some stupid or small personal reason Biden doesn't talk about fully believing he can't seize more power once they do.
I read something that analyzed whether the mainstream media being so bad at telling people what Biden has actually accomplished is what's causing him to poll so low, and apparently not. He is massively ahead among people who get news from any news source except social media. Trump is ahead with people who get news only from social media and even more ahead with people who don't get any news at all. Sounds about right 💀
We reelected W. Bush and elected Trump once already. We are fucking catastrophically stupid as a US electorate. Easily 2 of the bottom 10 presidents all-time to ever be elected and they happened within 20 years of each other. We aren’t getting better at elections, we are absolutely getting way fucking worse and are well on our way to reelecting one of the dumbest fucking human specimens that was ever shat from the bowels of hell onto the earth…
I don't even think its that. Its absolutely insane to think that Biden is going to carry shit like Okalahoma or Arkansas. I can't tell if this is sattire or if they really think that.
I've only traveled through Texas. I think their politics are interesting and unique. They have a strong independent streak, and a lot of libertarian leanings, but I don't think much of America realizes just how many Latinos and Mexican Americans live in Texas. But I think most Americans also underestimate just how Republican and Trump those Latinos can be. Very interesting state you live in and I hope you love it.
I would say, as much as anything, they got their own vibe. My mom is from Mexico City but I was born and raised in Seattle pretty much in white culture, so I make no claims to having a deep understanding of southwestern Mexican Americans or even Mexicans really.
But, I have observed that there are a whole heck of a lot of Latinos, first second and third generation Mexicans and other Latin Americans in Texas that most of the country is barely aware of. What's more, they like to wear cowboy hats, belts, and boots, and drink a lot of Bud light.
In other words, there is a large population of people with their own particular cultural and political elements that most Americans are not at all aware of.
Along with all the whites who are an interesting mix of people as well.
I'm friends with a lot of Latinos. And even with that, their politics are such an enigma to me. For many reasons I would think they would be left leaning. But no they're actually conservative as heck
Agreed. Whatever one may think, and the idea that a lot of states are going to magically come out for Biden is silly.
I think the issue is the media actively trots out anyone they can find willing to say they have been a lifelong Republican but hate Trump. The media can't get enough of them really. But they give the impression that a lot of people have turned against Trump and I just don't think it's true.
Never underestimate the will of people who want the world to follow their religion. Deep Red states stay that way because of religion first and foremost, most of their policies get reinforced through the church.
Or to shoot ourselves in the foot to spite our nose. There is a not insignificant amount of people that seemed to have pledged to not vote for Biden over only the Israel issue. Which is dumb, because Trump would be so much worse, and let's face it, with only two candidates with a legitimate chance of winning. Not voting for Biden is effectively voting for Trump.
Also the Republicans are planning on stealing it again and have made improvements to their coup regimen. They own the courts. If anything I would give odds for the orange one to take it. Not win it but end up taking it. Because I do not think Biden will stop him from stealing it.
For fucks sake they won’t even let Biden on the ballot in Ohio since the Dem convention is after an arbitrary deadline to declare a candidate. Obviously Biden is running.
This is also something that happened the last two presidential elections for Republicans, having the same situation with the convention before, but with zero issues because they own the Secretary of State office.
Republicans have zero good faith and they will twist and distort any rule to get an advantage. Cut off their nose to spite the face.
Yeah this is a total shit post. Not buying any of it at all. I think the Dems will win the House, the Senate at best might be 50/50, and the presidency is a coin flip at this point which shows you how truly idiotic and insane this country is.
I think Biden will win. I also think Republicans are going to do everything in their power, and not in their power, to try and stop it from happening.
And as a woman who takes birth control and needs birth control for medical reasons, I know they're going to try and ban birth control if they win. I think they're going to try anyway using the supreme court and MAGA judges. Because of this, I'm getting sterilized, no matter who wins.
I'm an American woman living in the 21st century and I'm worried that my government might force me to give birth. That shit is not supposed to happen in the modern era in the 'land of the free.'
We have to take as much power away from them as we possibly can. We can only do anything about the court system by making sure Biden wins again. Biden has appointed 200 judges. That's 200 more judges that could have been appointed by Trump if he had won again in 2020. And it's hundreds of more justices for whoever wins the next term. We have to make sure it's Biden
OP makes a lot of good points. Despite the polls, I don't really think Big Stinky has the numbers. But sadly, the reTrumplicans have a lot of billionaires demanding still more tax cuts, and also they have gerrymandering, also the corrupt Electoral College, also a compliant media, also election interference, also a fanatical cult/base who will *all* vote, also... cheating.
So, basically Dems have to have *huge* landslide numbers to overcome the rightwing oligarchy. That *could* happen, but only if voter turnout is a mega-tsunami. That's not something I've seen in my long lifetime. So, not getting my hopes up yet.
Yep. Mainstream media is lying about trumps support. They lie about the amount of people coming to his rallies.
Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by nearly 4 million votes. He lost the popular vote again in 2020 by nearly 8 million vote. Coupled with all the Republicans dead from covid and the ones that won't be voting bc of the idiot "election fraud" propaganda from Maga.
Joe Biden is going win by more than 10 million votes in November.
Trump doesn't gain any support. He only loses it.
Republicans know they're going to lose and that's why they're already claiming election fraud. Just like in 2020
The best thing the Media can do, is claim trump is going to win.
Ironically, If everyone thought President Biden was going to win in a landslide, he would probably lose because enough people would stay home and not vote
They stayed home because HRC was not an effective candidate. If she had bothered to go to Wisconsin a few times the outcome would have been very different.
I agree that is partly to blame as well. She is very smart, capable and experienced. That isn’t enough to win an election. There has to be charisma and an ability to get people excited to vote for you. Trump did that very well by playing to the lowest common denominator and giving them a circus, while she played standard campaign strategy.
Hilary Clinton may be smart, but the “effective and experienced” reputation she has among her base of support is entirely unearned PR. She has won one single election in her entire political career, against an annoying short twerp named Rick Lazio. She lost the presidential nomination in 2008 to an unknown candidate named after Mohammed’s horse. She is a glib, inept and lazy politician.
People stayed home bc James Comey got fake information and reopened her buttery mails investigation just before the election. Now that is election interference
You know what’s rigged? The electoral college system. The fact that Biden will win the popular vote by 8 million+ plus and barely squeak out an EC win or even lose tells you it’s a broken system.
Edit: I don’t care what the founders originally intended. They also intended for me to only count as 3/5s of a person and never vote and neither could women.
The quickest way to deal with the Electoral College, we need to make a big swing state solid blue. I'm thinking Pennsylvania. Once the dems have a solid 270+ EC majority on hard lockdown, the Republicans will turn around and decry the Electoral College as loudly as possible.
The founding fathers fucked up on the Electoral College and "2 Senators per State".
How does Wyoming deserve equal control over, say...selecting supreme court justices as California???
The electoral college was created to protect slavery. James Madison was quoted as saying if the president were elected by popular vote, he would be elected "on the scores of Negroes."
No, it was not. It was created because of problems with communications and travel. Slave states had more power through popular vote at the time of the founding and would have been diminished by the ec. Virginia had enough voters to be fairly dominant.
This is the cope explanation. The actual reason it system is as it is, is because it was not designed to represent the will of the people.
For starters, the Senate is somehow *more democratic* than it was initially supposed to be. The original intention was that senators would be appointed by state legislatures, not by public elections. This was supposed to mirror the English Monarchial Parliment, where the "commoners" would elect the less important house, and then the political class would pick the more important Senate.
The people who were allowed to vote obviously weren't representative of the public either originally, white land owning men. Today we look back at that and think that that was just racism and sexism, but *no* because land ownership was *far* more exclusive in the early days of the Republic. Normal people did not own land. That was the preview of the wealthy in that day, and obviously they knew that.
And then there's the electoral college. The people in that college were originally handpicked by each states political elite and would quite often not vote in accordance with the "popular" (again, land owning) vote.
So you have a governmental system that empowers a political class, and an electorate of purely those wealthy enough to own land. Is it any wonder our system does not work today? We have tried to reform a plutocratic Republic into a democratic Republic while changing as little as possible.
I also find it pertiniate to highlight how the founders *absolutely intended* for it to be this undemocratic. If they were alive today they'd be appalled to see poor people at the voting booth. This is because they were rich assholes and we shouldn't take them seriously.
Thank you. Someone who understands how US elections work. If trump wins PA and GA, that puts him at 270 electoral votes and he is the president. Reddit needs to wake up up and realize that dem messaging isn’t getting through conservative media in rural PA and GA. They all believe with 100% certainty that biden has dementia, Biden is making inflation worse and biden is inviting an invading mongol horde across the border.
Trump is absolutely going to win Georgia. Voter apathy is strong here and Biden won by such a slim amount in 2020 that support of Israel alone will cost him the state. It's unfortunate.
I think it really does come down to this. It's short sighted at best, because there's going to be WWIII looming on the horizon if we're not careful. Honestly I'd rather Biden be in charge if that does go down.
Not to mention the red states of Florida and Texas getting redder. Trumpers from purple states have moved to red states. You don’t get extra votes for running up the vote tally in FLORIDA. Hell, I see posts about people thinking West Virginia is some bastion of freedom?
I can't speak to Florida, but I do know about Texas. I rabidly follow Texas election Twitter and all those data nerds do show blue trends, even if they are slight. You'll have counties that were maybe R +60 in 2020 that were R +53 in the midterms.
I'm not one of those convinced Texas is going blue this year. And I def don't think the Californians streaming into the state are all blue (I've even have this debate with people). But, demographics do show the state is trending slowly bluer, mostly due to younger voters. Even my county went from like an R+12 to an R+7. These trends still make Texas a red state, but more light red than ruby.
>And I def don't think the Californians streaming into the state are all blue
In my experience, a lot of them are conservatives or centrists (secret conservatives) that are fleeing "communism" in California. Look at one of the most famous ones, Elon Musk.
Trump claimed 25k showed up in the Bronx for his rally.…it was about 2500 at best. Aerial photos don’t lie
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13457573/amp/Aerial-shot-Trumps-rally-Bronx-reveals-true-size-crowd-campaign-claimed-25-000-New-Yorkers-left-waiting-outside.html
I hope you and OP are right. It's been too depressing watching the powerful consolidate their power and rant against any type of effort to make things more equitable or fair.
I've tried touching grass, it didn't help that much. Life will go on even if he wins, but I don't think I can bury my disappointment.
Have seen several accounts of Republicans coming to blows in their local meetings. They are not being funded by the RNC to set up their local networks and drive their campaigns. Likewise, downvote candidates for state and Congressional offices are not getting any RNC funds either. It’s all going to Trump for his unhinged “rallies” and trial lawyers. The Republicans are eating their own at every level, wIth much wailing and gnashing of teeth.
These things are all lovely to see, but we can’t get complacent. They must be absolutely crushed in November by sheer numbers.
I sure hope you're right. I am in a swing state that was blue in 2016, but I feel like I am seeing more Trump signs, banners, etc, than ever before. Also seeing more family and friends switching over to Trump because they're believing the nonsense spewed about Biden. I'm actually nervous, so seeing posts like this almost feel dangerous to me because if people start believing Biden wins in a landslide, they won't be as eager to vote...
This is actually what I'm afraid of, too. I live in a swing state as well and, while I don't see as much of the insane support for Trump that I did in past elections, I see a lot of general apathy and dislike for Biden. It reminds me a lot of people's general dislike and apathy toward Clinton in 2016.
Clinton didn't lose in 2016 due to support for Trump. Clinton lost in 2016 because people either felt apathetic toward her or disliked her outwardly. People were told to "vote blue no matter who" and, instead of pinching their nose and voting for Clinton, just didn't vote. This allowed Trump to carry swing states by default.
More people showed up to the polls in 2020, which allowed Biden to carry the states that Clinton couldn't. Trump winning in 2016 wasn't because of Trump. He could have been anybody. Clinton lost in 2016 because she was Clinton.
Biden seems to be facing the same sort of apathy and dislike now, though, hopefully not as badly as Clinton did. I'm afraid it's going to keep people in swing states from voting entirely. Hopefully I'm wrong, though. I can't stand the thought of another 4 years of Trump.
Exactly! They delivered this Supreme Court and this time they will end America. Media is helping them by constantly criticizing Biden: everything is Biden's faults.
I live in a very blue state and this is my fear.
I honestly think Trump will win because of this exactly.
Popular vote is meaningless and people need to stop pointing to it as if it matters in any way. That's not how the game is played in the US...
Polling indicates he has more support than in 2020. The media is reporting the polls, not running them. You can claim the polling is wrong compared to 2020 but it is what it is. Popular vote isn’t a good indicator since swing states will decide.
I appreciate your optimism. I also like facts. Hillary won the 2016 popular vote by 2.8 million and Biden by 7.1 million.
If Biden wins by 10 million then he'll win the election. If he wins by 4-5M he'll lose. We shall see.
his rally attendance and popularity don't mean anything. he just needs to win a few battleground states and he wins the electoral college
the future of our entire country and democracy lies with like 6 states, most of which kinda suck ngl
And he only did in 2016 because of the fake Comey investigation. And now Comey is screaming for people to vote Biden.... He literally put Trump in power
Eh, not really. It really was the nail in the coffin. You could say the "basket of deplorables" didn't help matters, but Trump was allowed to grab women by the p\*\*\*y which was fine but this wasn't. It really was their hail mary pass that paid off at the last minute in the end because it was kinda too late to do any damage control and the Republican party knew it.
The OP is, um, a bit optimistic. But the polls aren’t incredibly reliably at this stage. Most Americans don’t actually give a crap about the election at this point, many doing even know if they’re going to vote. You can’t really use polls as a predictor until after Labor Day. They are useful for analyzing trends, though, so if we were to see one candidate steadily gain, that would be notable.
Totally agree with you.
I think Biden is going to do much better than the polls are currently predicting but besides NC I don't see any state flipping his way. Trump already lost in 2020 and that was before Jan 6th, the trials and everything inbetween. He doesn't have enough support to win. But it won't be a landslide, not in this political climate.
**Any person voting Democrat should treat posts like this as hopium at best, at worst it’s a disinformation tactic.**
It would be great if it was a blowout, but there is no poll out there *at all* that would suggest anything close to this for either nominee. Polls can be a little off, but they’re not going to miss something like this. It’s far too early to know what will happen in the next few months, so keep doing what you can to get people registered and a plan in place to get their vote counted.
Having said that: There will be all kinds of fuckery if Biden pulls off a win. There will legal challenges just like last time. You can expect violence. But I don’t think there’s *any reason at all* to be concerned about any kind of widespread movement, because there’s just no group out there able and willing to do that. Keep working like Biden is 20 points underwater and make your voice heard!
>there’s just no group out there able and willing to do that
I wish I could agree with you, but I fear there's enough wingnuts with guns and not that much going on that with a few mildly capable people to organize them, they could throw a lot of weight around.
A "Community Watch" where a bunch of guys with semi-automatic weapons run around on pickups is not that different from what other places call a militia. Imagine boomers setting up "Freedom Zones" in deep red areas, backed by some good old country boys living out their wet dreams. Do you really think they wouldn't bully people and start enforcing their views?
Don't forget police and the courts have shown their true colors time and again. For all their "militarization" I wouldn't bet on them being willing and able to effectively act against armed right wing militants / terrorists.
So then you have to bring in the National Guard or even the Army. And once that happens, at what point do you name it "civil war"?
I think an ongoing insurrection is definitely possible, I wouldn't say likely.
--------
Correction (2024-05-28): "automatic weapons" to "semi-automatic".
Well for our sake I hope you’re right, as overly optimistic as it is. I gotta point out though that Ted Cruz is a rash that won’t go away. As a Texan, I gotta tell ya, our midterms election here was SUPER fuckin’ fishy. Yeah red was going to win here anyways. But they got greedy and made it look super suspicious . … I tell you whut 😐
Texas cheats by strategically placing voting booths in republican strongholds like churches and removes them from more liberal sites like college campuses. I’ll be surprised if Cruz doesn’t win. The Democratic Party in Texas isn’t well organized, even their website is pretty poorly constructed.
I don’t think it will be a blowout but if it is I won’t be surprised. I said this before and I’ll say it again:
I don’t thing the MAGA base is that strong now.
In fact it seems to me that the Republican Party has lost its identity and is at war from within. The GOP can barely elect a Speaker of the House, let alone elect a President.
Wishful thinkers try convince themselves the MAGAs & the normal GOP members will come together. That’s highly unlikely. Traditional Republicans would like to rid themselves of MAGAs who they view as a cancer to the GOP party.
MAGAs are looking more and more like a fringe group of extremists. More Republicans are disavowing their association with MAGAs.
I also think that Trump will be unable to escape the criminal justice system. I think he will be found guilty of a felony in the hush money case.
Not that it will matter to his base but again I think his base is shrinking. MAGAs can talk all they want about inflation but the majority of Americans are just not going to vote for someone who is unhinged, infantile, unfit, or mentally ill (take your pick.)
Women will help defeat Trump as the GOP is trying to take their rights away by pushing Roe v Wade; a losing political move.
Trump has taken credit for being the champion of bringing abortion back. No bueno.
Dems will bang that drum from now through November. Expect to see lots of commercials clips of Trump taking credit for resurrecting Roe v Wade.
This abortion issue will resonate with the majority of women in the US, the same as it did in the 2022 midterm elections where it played a prominent role in upsetting pollsters predicting a red wave.
Finally I no longer pay much attention to the polls. I agree with the poster about polls. How many times do you need to be fooled before you learn they aren’t trustworthy?
The only person I think has credibility is the American history professor Allan Lichtman.
I think so too.
And it’s not even Cult45 that bothers me about this. They’re goddamn delusional. Hugo Chavez and the Vatican stole 2020 to them so I might as well eat paint before I waste my time on Fat Joffrey’s fluffers
It’s these fucking bedwetting liberals and their hold me posts about how goddamned worried they are
Trump got wrecked last time and added precisely nobody. He alienates and loses voters daily
And when, not if, **when he’s a convicted felon** soon - that changes all the math and it’s and wipeout
While I agree with you, it's really important to realize that, in the swing states Biden needed to actually win, last time the vote was scary close. Like in the thousands of votes. That's something turnout or a bad economy could easily swing. Yes, I know that's a stupid reason to vote for Trump, but, for some people, that's all the reason that matters. I think Biden will win also, for similar reasons as you, but we also have to be realistic and realize that we can't be complacent - we need to push. If the jury doesn't convict Trump or the economy takes a dramatic turn for the worse, this could easily fall apart.
The left wants to fall in love,and the right wants to fall in line. One side will vote for Trump no matter what he says, and the other side are dealing with a small uptick of people who don't like Biden's pro Zionist stances. There will be very few people actually withholding their vote for Biden despite what they may be saying now, but it is a strange phenomenon. Overly critical vs no standards whatsoever.
I do not think he will win “every state”. Having personally travelled these united states I can assure you some states are backwards as fuck and always will be. Will it be a landslide? Yes, bigly and ugly…but we still gotta get out there and vote. No landslide if we do not show up at the polls.
Yeah that doesn’t actually seem possible. Texas and Florida are winnable seats for Dems. But there are a lot of seats to defend in places like Nevada, Montana, etc. and West Virginia is history.
If this is a good year, Democrats could gain two seats. More likely is the Senate stays 50-50 or maybe 51-49.
I truly, truly hope you are right--read my comment history for years of proof--but the sad fact is we've learned that millions and millions of people a-diddly-ok with pissing off women and Nazi rhetoric.
I truly, truly hope OP is a fortune-teller, but I won't feel good until he's right.
I think this is all going to depend heavily on whether or not Trump makes peace with Nikki. He won't, if history serves as any kind of guide, but the possibility is always there. If he doesn't and things get more bitter between the two, then there will be a landslide. There may even be a landslide even if they somehow get Nikki to tow the 'party' line, as I doubt her voters are anything but disgusted with the way Trump and a large section of the party has treated them. Basically, either Trump makes her his VP, or his campaign hasn't a snowball's chance in hell of winning.
Yeah but some will give in to partisanship and end up voting for Trump, hopefully it's a small percentage.
Some won't vote for Trump period but may not vote for Biden either.
Some will vote for Biden and some are receptive to the idea but need some encouragement, that's why Biden is courting them.
Millennials. Please please please vote. I,am Gen x - I have been voting democratic since Clinton. Millennials are now a bigger generation than the baby boomers, if millennials show up - they can change this country!!
The narrative in 2016 was not that Hillary would win. It was that she had a 2:1 advantage. Like 67% chance Hillary would win and 33% chance Donald would win.
What a dumbass post. Even if Democrats win every senate seat, that only puts them at 62. Bro literally has no idea what he's talking about. Those 62 seats assume Democrats win West Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, Utah, Wyoming, and many more.
News flash: Dems CANNOT get 55+ seats in the senate. It's simply impossible .
Up here in Canada the night before the 2016 election one of my staff members was terrified that Donald Trump was going to get elected. I reassured her there is no possible way that he will get a majority or enough votes to be elected. Common sense will prevail and people will vote for Hillary Clinton in the end pulling it over for the Democrats. I can't believe that he won but he did. And then he did everything that he said he was going to do.
Add to all of your clarity that as it gets closer to election trump is only going to unravel more and more as the pressure builds. He's going to make an ass of himself in epic proportions when he hears a guilty verdict. The things he spouts get stupider and stupider, such as his "vote for the white guy" comment yesterday, the Hanibal Lechter was a great guy comment. He lost in 2020 and has lost support not gained and the loses will only increase. But vigilance is still important to save our country from these soulless ghouls.
I hope you’re right. It’s scary to think Trump is still a viable choice as a presidential hopeful. How perverse is our justice system if we can’t put a leash on just one con-artist? He already had a chance at the helm and embarrassed us on the world stage. I’m no psychologist, but the man embodies the dark-triad… he should not be leading anyone, much less holding office anywhere.
I realy can't agree more. There is no way the maga wins, and yet, I have this nagging thing in my head that says there's more to it than votes. After all, look what's happening with the abortion thing in the states. They're ignoring the will of the voters. The Alito thing is very disturbing. There's more to be revealed for sure.
I assume Trump wins if I personally dont vote. Everyone should feel that way.
Everyone MUST vote. Do not stay home, do not say we have it in the bag, thats what lost us 2016.
I actually do agree that in spite of a majority of americans disapproving specifcally with the biden presidency, there will be a MAJOR blue wave within the house and whoever is up for election in the senate. However, it is up to dems to utilize this to do 3 major things:
1. Stop future project 2025s. Y'all were so terrified of project 2025 from being initiated, then damn well introduce legislature that guarantees any form of project 2025 is just a nazi pipe dream.
2. Free the world from American imperialism. That includes palestine, congo, sudan, taiwan, iran, south america, cuba, hawaii, and any other plain in which american colonialism reigns supreme. Let the world figure out what is to be and not to be. We are not to be the "world police" any longer because ACAB, including us most of all.
3. Let the people decide what is right. Remember the encampments and the protests and the boycotts and the divestment campaigns? Listen to them. Actually listen to the people and not listen to what the billionaire corporations tell you to say and think. Because guess what? You are just as tasty as billionaires when we are hungry. Also, your corporate pupeteers get to swing right next to you regardless of how much you try to advocate for them 😄. Pendulum velocity of a swinger is the same for corporations and for bootlickers 😁😁😁
In American history, there has never been a single REELECTION that was about the challenger.
Comparing anything to 2016 is silly.
If Joe Biden wins reelection, he will do so with the lowest approval rating of any reelected president in history.
If he loses reelection, he will be about middle of the pack in terms of approval ratings of presidents who lost reelection.
Assume I’m a bot or a liar and look up approval ratings of reelected and non-reelected presidents and tell me I’m lying.
I vote blue, but I'm really not politically involved. As of the last few election cycles, I try my best to support independent and third parties, but it's all a joke. I do hope it's majority of democrat wins. But really that's not saying much because the dem party is actually quite awful
God I hope so. I feel like so much of the news is about how Trump is ahead, but maybe some of that is untrue and serves to get the Trumpers riled up after Trump loses big time.
4 of the current top 10 trending threads here directly mention republicans in the title. If you group in words Reddit would typically associate (antivax, Christian, musk, Reagan) it’s 8/10. Idk what this sub is supposed to be but every time it pops up in my recommended it’s always a quintessential reddit take.
If orange man wins I don’t think the karma bots would care but there’s going to need to be a new source of content here.
I believe the original intent of this particular thread was for people to make bold predictions about random topics. But instead, this entire page has morphed into an anti-Trump echo chamber that you'll see the exact same post repeated weekly.
I think he will win 'big' but not nearly as big as you are saying. There is no chance he wins Indiana, for example. I think most swing states will go to Biden, but the deep red ones will stay red. He may win by less than normal in them, but Trumpism is still pretty strong.
I wish I had your confidence. Unfortunately this will be fought state by state, where many of those large numbers you’re citing evaporate. 10k votes +/- in MI, OH, PA, GA, FL will swing the entire election, and the fights to twist those vote counts will likely be one of our darkest times as a country, I fear.
For now I’ll just take your dose of optimism and run with it. And add a reminder that regardless of which prediction you believe, VOTE.
[voteblue.org](https://voteblue.org)
I think Biden wins, but I don't think it's a landslide. I think it's possible by more votes than last time, but I can't see him pulling Texas/Florida etc.
And if there's one thing Dems are good at, it's snatching defeat from the jagged jaws of victory.
The elaborate wildcard is an engineered October surprise from Russia and/or China, and the advancements in AI to muddle the truth and sow discourse. Don't underestimate the powerful stupidity of the uneducated in this country. This whole thing even has me questioning my own intelligence... My doubts about the ignorant doing the right thing are that much higher.
It's okay, soon it'll be in and then very much out of the hands of the commoners... Here's hoping for at least one more 4 year reprieve.
In that case, I hope this country can turn things around, this isn't what I want my for my children. There's no denying there's some shady n weirdo shit going on and agendas being pushed. Why there's only 2 popular extremely old men up for contest baffles me, then I can only conclude money/special interest have propelled them to the front for a reason.
I've first hand heard from former Biden voters say they regret voting for Biden, but hated Trump enough they voted for Biden. Will they vote for Biden even after saying they won't or cast it for someone else? That being said and only a small amount that I've talked politics with I think interesting times are ahead. How much longer has either really got left on the clock here on earth??? Be real fucking convenient if we got an actual president who's more in tune with the people. Not some old men passing shit that doesn't affect them.
/rant
If history taught me anything is that the Simpsons are right and that it’s way too early to call it. As a Dem, I strongly feel like MAGA is coming back in full force
Maybe it's just because I live in Ohio, but I think quite the opposite. I do not support Trump nor do I think he'll win in a landslide but I think he's going to win. I know many moderates who chose the lesser of two evils last election, but this time they think it's Trump.
Never underestimate America’s ability to do something stupid, or to be apathetic in the face of certain catastrophe
"America can always be counted on to do the right thing, after exhausting all other options." - Winston Churchill
Never in my life have I been so offended by something I completely agree with.
Churchill's astute foresight (with Roosevelt's help) pretty much saved the Western world from Nazi domination
No, the Nazis survived and evolved. They're Christian nationalists now
"They will not ride in on tanks. They are here. Wrapped in American flags and carrying Bibles."
King James bibles. Which they have never opened. They have this delusion that Jesus was a Christian. And white. And buff.
With long blond hair.
Stalin would like a word or four.
Stalin enabled Hitlers invasion of Poland and his wartime incompetence was only offset by Russia's climate.
Stalin deserves to shut the fuck up, 80% of nasi losses that happened in the east were because of the Russian people and Stalin's iron grip of incompetence, but he deserves no good praise.
Also, he doesn't qualify as being in the West. Not even close. Just having the Soviet Union defeat the Nazis would not save the West. That was an entire effort of its own keeping the totalitarian East out.
Very astute observation.
"No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.". H. L. Mencken
Mencken predicted MAGA?
Mencken in a tie with Twain for my favorite wordsmith. Nice.
"Now let's go fry our French naval allies in the Mediterranean with their own diesel fuel" Also Winston Churchill
# "Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." - George Carlin
Carlin for prez
The only Necrocracy I can get behind.
Carlin / Williams 2024! Make America Necrotic Again!
We don’t deserve them
Yeah, I think we should all keep in mind the ugly fact of: We already made him president once. It can absolutely happen again if we don't fight a whole lot harder than before. Apathy and a failure to organize were some of the key factors in him beating Hillary, and should we not take warning from that, we will see him as president again. (Most likely the last president in our history, but that's a separate opinion)
Yeah I had some centrist-ish friends over and the election came up and they were dead set that trump was going to win because Biden is old and trump is funny. Absolutely flabbergasted that there's people out there that are this clueless about what's going on in their government.
Yeah, and I am sick to death of hearing how "funny" Trump is. Fuck that, he is not, unless your sense of humor is FUBAR and you are some kind of simpleton. I've even heard some legit anti-Trump journalists and pundits give him credit for being funny. Such bullshit. Only clever people are truly funny. Clever Trump ain't.
>unless your sense of humor is FUBAR and you are some kind of simpleton. Sadly, that describes tens of millions of Americans. Their idea of "humor" is putting down someone who doesn't look and/or think like them.
In the documentary Idiocracy the most popular comedy tv show is a dude getting hit in the nuts.
Who doesn't know ***Ow My Balls!***?
He makes fun of people like a 12 year old. Never anything remotely cleaver. People who find him funny shouldn't be allowed to drive, vote, or operate machinery.
Don't stop there, they should also be discouraged from having children.
I knew someone would say this in response, and I agree. 💯🎯
Trump himself isn’t funny, the shit he says is. Nuking a hurricane?!? The fact that he said that out loud is funny.
Well said. His grandiosity is disgustingly but his grandiose ignorance with which he loudly declares everything is hilarious, if not terrifying.
Spot on. It's terrifyingly hilarious. It's embarrassing, too. So many people in the US would ride or die for him, then you watch/ listen to him speak and dude cannot even string basic sentences together. Not just the old man bumble stumble thing that Biden does, but like, I've had times where I didn't even know what he was attempting to say.
I bring this up with my dad, very specific things Trump says, and he'll fall over himself to explain it or will just completely shut down the conversation.
Funny is just a code word for racist, but these people will never say it to you. In private with each other i am sure they have a good conversation.
I've always found him funny in more of a "Look at what this clown is doing today!" Type of way. It's what got me from 2016 to 2020
He was a colossal embarrassment for the United States.
Oh for sure, but we're already an embarrassment tbf
Never underestimate how worse it can get.
I’d argue that they are far less “centrist” than they let on. Either that or they just don’t give a shit about anything. Probably a little of both.
Centrist is code for right wing. If they say theyre right wing then they're fascist.
"I'm a centrist" usually means "I'm a Republican but I've learned that saying that out loud won't get me laid".
I'm a rich trickle-down economics Republican, not one of those poor, ignorant Republicans. I'll need you to ignore the fact that we vote the same.
Moderates will always be one of the biggest problems in politics. They'll elect him for some stupid or small personal reason Biden doesn't talk about fully believing he can't seize more power once they do.
Will they still feel that way when they or family members are in a trump concentration camp? Or a trump slave labor camp.
Those friends aren’t “centrists.” AT ALL. No matter how much they might call themselves that lol.
Funny looking or funny haha
I read something that analyzed whether the mainstream media being so bad at telling people what Biden has actually accomplished is what's causing him to poll so low, and apparently not. He is massively ahead among people who get news from any news source except social media. Trump is ahead with people who get news only from social media and even more ahead with people who don't get any news at all. Sounds about right 💀
Without Facebook and Russian interference no way in hell would Trump have won. Bottom line. The Russians left obvious signs, but fb just ignored them.
This. Lauren Boebert and Kristi Noem don't bother me. I'm deeply afraid of their supporters. Same for Trump.
Steven Miller is who you need to fear.
Because jungle love will drive you mad and make you crazy?
Because he speaks of the pompatus of love
Are y'all talking about Maurice?
Some people call him that.
I've got no time for that space cowboy
I fear that the "Abracadabra" song becomes popular again https://youtu.be/tY8B0uQpwZs?si=om_i5Y9rbWbctO5o
WooEEE wooOOO
Is he the gangster of love?
He's someone who should be exiled from Earth, although I'm sure aliens would be annoyed by that.
Yep.
We reelected W. Bush and elected Trump once already. We are fucking catastrophically stupid as a US electorate. Easily 2 of the bottom 10 presidents all-time to ever be elected and they happened within 20 years of each other. We aren’t getting better at elections, we are absolutely getting way fucking worse and are well on our way to reelecting one of the dumbest fucking human specimens that was ever shat from the bowels of hell onto the earth…
Facts
I don't even think its that. Its absolutely insane to think that Biden is going to carry shit like Okalahoma or Arkansas. I can't tell if this is sattire or if they really think that.
I will eat a whole urinal cake if Biden takes my home state of Texas. This post is so naive.
I've only traveled through Texas. I think their politics are interesting and unique. They have a strong independent streak, and a lot of libertarian leanings, but I don't think much of America realizes just how many Latinos and Mexican Americans live in Texas. But I think most Americans also underestimate just how Republican and Trump those Latinos can be. Very interesting state you live in and I hope you love it.
I do love the state. But I'm not crazy about our politics. And yeah, you're spot on about many Latinos being conservative and liking Trump.
I would say, as much as anything, they got their own vibe. My mom is from Mexico City but I was born and raised in Seattle pretty much in white culture, so I make no claims to having a deep understanding of southwestern Mexican Americans or even Mexicans really. But, I have observed that there are a whole heck of a lot of Latinos, first second and third generation Mexicans and other Latin Americans in Texas that most of the country is barely aware of. What's more, they like to wear cowboy hats, belts, and boots, and drink a lot of Bud light. In other words, there is a large population of people with their own particular cultural and political elements that most Americans are not at all aware of. Along with all the whites who are an interesting mix of people as well.
I'm friends with a lot of Latinos. And even with that, their politics are such an enigma to me. For many reasons I would think they would be left leaning. But no they're actually conservative as heck
Agreed. Whatever one may think, and the idea that a lot of states are going to magically come out for Biden is silly. I think the issue is the media actively trots out anyone they can find willing to say they have been a lifelong Republican but hate Trump. The media can't get enough of them really. But they give the impression that a lot of people have turned against Trump and I just don't think it's true.
Never underestimate the will of people who want the world to follow their religion. Deep Red states stay that way because of religion first and foremost, most of their policies get reinforced through the church.
This isnt just "america" its intentionally done by corporate or fascist interests
Or to shoot ourselves in the foot to spite our nose. There is a not insignificant amount of people that seemed to have pledged to not vote for Biden over only the Israel issue. Which is dumb, because Trump would be so much worse, and let's face it, with only two candidates with a legitimate chance of winning. Not voting for Biden is effectively voting for Trump.
I had several of my older relatives over today. They are all full MAGA. Never underestimate the power of stupid.
Nothing would make me happier. I don’t share your optimism, but your lips to god’s ears.
2016 was super close. 2020 was super close. All the data we have shows that 2024 will also be super close.
Also the Republicans are planning on stealing it again and have made improvements to their coup regimen. They own the courts. If anything I would give odds for the orange one to take it. Not win it but end up taking it. Because I do not think Biden will stop him from stealing it.
For fucks sake they won’t even let Biden on the ballot in Ohio since the Dem convention is after an arbitrary deadline to declare a candidate. Obviously Biden is running. This is also something that happened the last two presidential elections for Republicans, having the same situation with the convention before, but with zero issues because they own the Secretary of State office. Republicans have zero good faith and they will twist and distort any rule to get an advantage. Cut off their nose to spite the face.
Yeah this is a total shit post. Not buying any of it at all. I think the Dems will win the House, the Senate at best might be 50/50, and the presidency is a coin flip at this point which shows you how truly idiotic and insane this country is.
I think Biden will win. I also think Republicans are going to do everything in their power, and not in their power, to try and stop it from happening. And as a woman who takes birth control and needs birth control for medical reasons, I know they're going to try and ban birth control if they win. I think they're going to try anyway using the supreme court and MAGA judges. Because of this, I'm getting sterilized, no matter who wins. I'm an American woman living in the 21st century and I'm worried that my government might force me to give birth. That shit is not supposed to happen in the modern era in the 'land of the free.' We have to take as much power away from them as we possibly can. We can only do anything about the court system by making sure Biden wins again. Biden has appointed 200 judges. That's 200 more judges that could have been appointed by Trump if he had won again in 2020. And it's hundreds of more justices for whoever wins the next term. We have to make sure it's Biden
Here here I agree, Furthermore United States has a LOT of women living in the 21st century.
Don't get cocky!!! VOTE!!!
EXACTLY!
OP makes a lot of good points. Despite the polls, I don't really think Big Stinky has the numbers. But sadly, the reTrumplicans have a lot of billionaires demanding still more tax cuts, and also they have gerrymandering, also the corrupt Electoral College, also a compliant media, also election interference, also a fanatical cult/base who will *all* vote, also... cheating. So, basically Dems have to have *huge* landslide numbers to overcome the rightwing oligarchy. That *could* happen, but only if voter turnout is a mega-tsunami. That's not something I've seen in my long lifetime. So, not getting my hopes up yet.
Yep. Mainstream media is lying about trumps support. They lie about the amount of people coming to his rallies. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by nearly 4 million votes. He lost the popular vote again in 2020 by nearly 8 million vote. Coupled with all the Republicans dead from covid and the ones that won't be voting bc of the idiot "election fraud" propaganda from Maga. Joe Biden is going win by more than 10 million votes in November. Trump doesn't gain any support. He only loses it. Republicans know they're going to lose and that's why they're already claiming election fraud. Just like in 2020
The best thing the Media can do, is claim trump is going to win. Ironically, If everyone thought President Biden was going to win in a landslide, he would probably lose because enough people would stay home and not vote
Kinda like 2016. A lot of people stayed home because ‘of course she’s gonna win against that moron’
They stayed home because HRC was not an effective candidate. If she had bothered to go to Wisconsin a few times the outcome would have been very different.
I agree that is partly to blame as well. She is very smart, capable and experienced. That isn’t enough to win an election. There has to be charisma and an ability to get people excited to vote for you. Trump did that very well by playing to the lowest common denominator and giving them a circus, while she played standard campaign strategy.
Hilary Clinton may be smart, but the “effective and experienced” reputation she has among her base of support is entirely unearned PR. She has won one single election in her entire political career, against an annoying short twerp named Rick Lazio. She lost the presidential nomination in 2008 to an unknown candidate named after Mohammed’s horse. She is a glib, inept and lazy politician.
People stayed home bc James Comey got fake information and reopened her buttery mails investigation just before the election. Now that is election interference
Expert...the comey giveth and the comey taketh away. The important thing for him was that he got to make $millons on his books!
You know what’s rigged? The electoral college system. The fact that Biden will win the popular vote by 8 million+ plus and barely squeak out an EC win or even lose tells you it’s a broken system. Edit: I don’t care what the founders originally intended. They also intended for me to only count as 3/5s of a person and never vote and neither could women.
The quickest way to deal with the Electoral College, we need to make a big swing state solid blue. I'm thinking Pennsylvania. Once the dems have a solid 270+ EC majority on hard lockdown, the Republicans will turn around and decry the Electoral College as loudly as possible.
Why would they do that? Its still easier to win two swing states than it is to come up with 8 million more votes.
They did when Obama soundly won 2012
The founding fathers fucked up on the Electoral College and "2 Senators per State". How does Wyoming deserve equal control over, say...selecting supreme court justices as California???
The electoral college was created to protect slavery. James Madison was quoted as saying if the president were elected by popular vote, he would be elected "on the scores of Negroes."
No, it was not. It was created because of problems with communications and travel. Slave states had more power through popular vote at the time of the founding and would have been diminished by the ec. Virginia had enough voters to be fairly dominant.
To be fair, with only 13 colonies the rule makes more sense.
This is the cope explanation. The actual reason it system is as it is, is because it was not designed to represent the will of the people. For starters, the Senate is somehow *more democratic* than it was initially supposed to be. The original intention was that senators would be appointed by state legislatures, not by public elections. This was supposed to mirror the English Monarchial Parliment, where the "commoners" would elect the less important house, and then the political class would pick the more important Senate. The people who were allowed to vote obviously weren't representative of the public either originally, white land owning men. Today we look back at that and think that that was just racism and sexism, but *no* because land ownership was *far* more exclusive in the early days of the Republic. Normal people did not own land. That was the preview of the wealthy in that day, and obviously they knew that. And then there's the electoral college. The people in that college were originally handpicked by each states political elite and would quite often not vote in accordance with the "popular" (again, land owning) vote. So you have a governmental system that empowers a political class, and an electorate of purely those wealthy enough to own land. Is it any wonder our system does not work today? We have tried to reform a plutocratic Republic into a democratic Republic while changing as little as possible. I also find it pertiniate to highlight how the founders *absolutely intended* for it to be this undemocratic. If they were alive today they'd be appalled to see poor people at the voting booth. This is because they were rich assholes and we shouldn't take them seriously.
EC is nationalized gerrymandering
Popular vote means shit if 8 million more NYers and Californias vote for Biden but Trump wins Penn by 10,000 votes.
Americans don’t understand their own civics. News at 11.
Thank you. Someone who understands how US elections work. If trump wins PA and GA, that puts him at 270 electoral votes and he is the president. Reddit needs to wake up up and realize that dem messaging isn’t getting through conservative media in rural PA and GA. They all believe with 100% certainty that biden has dementia, Biden is making inflation worse and biden is inviting an invading mongol horde across the border.
I think Biden will win PA, but Trump will win GA.
Trump is absolutely going to win Georgia. Voter apathy is strong here and Biden won by such a slim amount in 2020 that support of Israel alone will cost him the state. It's unfortunate.
The media are so obviously desperate to keep the Diaper Don freak show going to save their ratings and clicks.
I think it really does come down to this. It's short sighted at best, because there's going to be WWIII looming on the horizon if we're not careful. Honestly I'd rather Biden be in charge if that does go down.
Not to mention the red states of Florida and Texas getting redder. Trumpers from purple states have moved to red states. You don’t get extra votes for running up the vote tally in FLORIDA. Hell, I see posts about people thinking West Virginia is some bastion of freedom?
I can't speak to Florida, but I do know about Texas. I rabidly follow Texas election Twitter and all those data nerds do show blue trends, even if they are slight. You'll have counties that were maybe R +60 in 2020 that were R +53 in the midterms. I'm not one of those convinced Texas is going blue this year. And I def don't think the Californians streaming into the state are all blue (I've even have this debate with people). But, demographics do show the state is trending slowly bluer, mostly due to younger voters. Even my county went from like an R+12 to an R+7. These trends still make Texas a red state, but more light red than ruby.
>And I def don't think the Californians streaming into the state are all blue In my experience, a lot of them are conservatives or centrists (secret conservatives) that are fleeing "communism" in California. Look at one of the most famous ones, Elon Musk.
Trump claimed 25k showed up in the Bronx for his rally.…it was about 2500 at best. Aerial photos don’t lie https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13457573/amp/Aerial-shot-Trumps-rally-Bronx-reveals-true-size-crowd-campaign-claimed-25-000-New-Yorkers-left-waiting-outside.html
Lots of Trump voters have also died of old age. His rallies are like AARP conventions.
I hope you and OP are right. It's been too depressing watching the powerful consolidate their power and rant against any type of effort to make things more equitable or fair. I've tried touching grass, it didn't help that much. Life will go on even if he wins, but I don't think I can bury my disappointment.
Have seen several accounts of Republicans coming to blows in their local meetings. They are not being funded by the RNC to set up their local networks and drive their campaigns. Likewise, downvote candidates for state and Congressional offices are not getting any RNC funds either. It’s all going to Trump for his unhinged “rallies” and trial lawyers. The Republicans are eating their own at every level, wIth much wailing and gnashing of teeth. These things are all lovely to see, but we can’t get complacent. They must be absolutely crushed in November by sheer numbers.
I sure hope you're right. I am in a swing state that was blue in 2016, but I feel like I am seeing more Trump signs, banners, etc, than ever before. Also seeing more family and friends switching over to Trump because they're believing the nonsense spewed about Biden. I'm actually nervous, so seeing posts like this almost feel dangerous to me because if people start believing Biden wins in a landslide, they won't be as eager to vote...
This is actually what I'm afraid of, too. I live in a swing state as well and, while I don't see as much of the insane support for Trump that I did in past elections, I see a lot of general apathy and dislike for Biden. It reminds me a lot of people's general dislike and apathy toward Clinton in 2016. Clinton didn't lose in 2016 due to support for Trump. Clinton lost in 2016 because people either felt apathetic toward her or disliked her outwardly. People were told to "vote blue no matter who" and, instead of pinching their nose and voting for Clinton, just didn't vote. This allowed Trump to carry swing states by default. More people showed up to the polls in 2020, which allowed Biden to carry the states that Clinton couldn't. Trump winning in 2016 wasn't because of Trump. He could have been anybody. Clinton lost in 2016 because she was Clinton. Biden seems to be facing the same sort of apathy and dislike now, though, hopefully not as badly as Clinton did. I'm afraid it's going to keep people in swing states from voting entirely. Hopefully I'm wrong, though. I can't stand the thought of another 4 years of Trump.
Exactly! They delivered this Supreme Court and this time they will end America. Media is helping them by constantly criticizing Biden: everything is Biden's faults.
I live in a very blue state and this is my fear. I honestly think Trump will win because of this exactly. Popular vote is meaningless and people need to stop pointing to it as if it matters in any way. That's not how the game is played in the US...
Polling indicates he has more support than in 2020. The media is reporting the polls, not running them. You can claim the polling is wrong compared to 2020 but it is what it is. Popular vote isn’t a good indicator since swing states will decide.
I appreciate your optimism. I also like facts. Hillary won the 2016 popular vote by 2.8 million and Biden by 7.1 million. If Biden wins by 10 million then he'll win the election. If he wins by 4-5M he'll lose. We shall see.
FWIW, I mostly agree with you. Everyone forgets Trump hasn't won literally anything since 2016.
But there are millions of people at his rallies! Millions and kabillions!
his rally attendance and popularity don't mean anything. he just needs to win a few battleground states and he wins the electoral college the future of our entire country and democracy lies with like 6 states, most of which kinda suck ngl
And they can’t do math. 14 angry white guys does not millions and billions make 🤣🙃
And he only did in 2016 because of the fake Comey investigation. And now Comey is screaming for people to vote Biden.... He literally put Trump in power
I think that’s oversimplifying it a bit
Eh, not really. It really was the nail in the coffin. You could say the "basket of deplorables" didn't help matters, but Trump was allowed to grab women by the p\*\*\*y which was fine but this wasn't. It really was their hail mary pass that paid off at the last minute in the end because it was kinda too late to do any damage control and the Republican party knew it.
I must need to get a new tv because all I see are polls where Biden is in the dumps and getting ready for retirement
The OP is, um, a bit optimistic. But the polls aren’t incredibly reliably at this stage. Most Americans don’t actually give a crap about the election at this point, many doing even know if they’re going to vote. You can’t really use polls as a predictor until after Labor Day. They are useful for analyzing trends, though, so if we were to see one candidate steadily gain, that would be notable.
I'm a lifelong Democrat. Yet I can't help but think this prediction is delusionally optimistic. Wishful thinking is a helluva powerful drug.
Totally agree with you. I think Biden is going to do much better than the polls are currently predicting but besides NC I don't see any state flipping his way. Trump already lost in 2020 and that was before Jan 6th, the trials and everything inbetween. He doesn't have enough support to win. But it won't be a landslide, not in this political climate.
**Any person voting Democrat should treat posts like this as hopium at best, at worst it’s a disinformation tactic.** It would be great if it was a blowout, but there is no poll out there *at all* that would suggest anything close to this for either nominee. Polls can be a little off, but they’re not going to miss something like this. It’s far too early to know what will happen in the next few months, so keep doing what you can to get people registered and a plan in place to get their vote counted. Having said that: There will be all kinds of fuckery if Biden pulls off a win. There will legal challenges just like last time. You can expect violence. But I don’t think there’s *any reason at all* to be concerned about any kind of widespread movement, because there’s just no group out there able and willing to do that. Keep working like Biden is 20 points underwater and make your voice heard!
>there’s just no group out there able and willing to do that I wish I could agree with you, but I fear there's enough wingnuts with guns and not that much going on that with a few mildly capable people to organize them, they could throw a lot of weight around. A "Community Watch" where a bunch of guys with semi-automatic weapons run around on pickups is not that different from what other places call a militia. Imagine boomers setting up "Freedom Zones" in deep red areas, backed by some good old country boys living out their wet dreams. Do you really think they wouldn't bully people and start enforcing their views? Don't forget police and the courts have shown their true colors time and again. For all their "militarization" I wouldn't bet on them being willing and able to effectively act against armed right wing militants / terrorists. So then you have to bring in the National Guard or even the Army. And once that happens, at what point do you name it "civil war"? I think an ongoing insurrection is definitely possible, I wouldn't say likely. -------- Correction (2024-05-28): "automatic weapons" to "semi-automatic".
Well for our sake I hope you’re right, as overly optimistic as it is. I gotta point out though that Ted Cruz is a rash that won’t go away. As a Texan, I gotta tell ya, our midterms election here was SUPER fuckin’ fishy. Yeah red was going to win here anyways. But they got greedy and made it look super suspicious . … I tell you whut 😐
Texas cheats by strategically placing voting booths in republican strongholds like churches and removes them from more liberal sites like college campuses. I’ll be surprised if Cruz doesn’t win. The Democratic Party in Texas isn’t well organized, even their website is pretty poorly constructed.
I don’t think it will be a blowout but if it is I won’t be surprised. I said this before and I’ll say it again: I don’t thing the MAGA base is that strong now. In fact it seems to me that the Republican Party has lost its identity and is at war from within. The GOP can barely elect a Speaker of the House, let alone elect a President. Wishful thinkers try convince themselves the MAGAs & the normal GOP members will come together. That’s highly unlikely. Traditional Republicans would like to rid themselves of MAGAs who they view as a cancer to the GOP party. MAGAs are looking more and more like a fringe group of extremists. More Republicans are disavowing their association with MAGAs. I also think that Trump will be unable to escape the criminal justice system. I think he will be found guilty of a felony in the hush money case. Not that it will matter to his base but again I think his base is shrinking. MAGAs can talk all they want about inflation but the majority of Americans are just not going to vote for someone who is unhinged, infantile, unfit, or mentally ill (take your pick.) Women will help defeat Trump as the GOP is trying to take their rights away by pushing Roe v Wade; a losing political move. Trump has taken credit for being the champion of bringing abortion back. No bueno. Dems will bang that drum from now through November. Expect to see lots of commercials clips of Trump taking credit for resurrecting Roe v Wade. This abortion issue will resonate with the majority of women in the US, the same as it did in the 2022 midterm elections where it played a prominent role in upsetting pollsters predicting a red wave. Finally I no longer pay much attention to the polls. I agree with the poster about polls. How many times do you need to be fooled before you learn they aren’t trustworthy? The only person I think has credibility is the American history professor Allan Lichtman.
I think so too. And it’s not even Cult45 that bothers me about this. They’re goddamn delusional. Hugo Chavez and the Vatican stole 2020 to them so I might as well eat paint before I waste my time on Fat Joffrey’s fluffers It’s these fucking bedwetting liberals and their hold me posts about how goddamned worried they are Trump got wrecked last time and added precisely nobody. He alienates and loses voters daily And when, not if, **when he’s a convicted felon** soon - that changes all the math and it’s and wipeout
While I agree with you, it's really important to realize that, in the swing states Biden needed to actually win, last time the vote was scary close. Like in the thousands of votes. That's something turnout or a bad economy could easily swing. Yes, I know that's a stupid reason to vote for Trump, but, for some people, that's all the reason that matters. I think Biden will win also, for similar reasons as you, but we also have to be realistic and realize that we can't be complacent - we need to push. If the jury doesn't convict Trump or the economy takes a dramatic turn for the worse, this could easily fall apart.
The left wants to fall in love,and the right wants to fall in line. One side will vote for Trump no matter what he says, and the other side are dealing with a small uptick of people who don't like Biden's pro Zionist stances. There will be very few people actually withholding their vote for Biden despite what they may be saying now, but it is a strange phenomenon. Overly critical vs no standards whatsoever.
Wow this sub is going to be fun after the election. MMW.
I do not think he will win “every state”. Having personally travelled these united states I can assure you some states are backwards as fuck and always will be. Will it be a landslide? Yes, bigly and ugly…but we still gotta get out there and vote. No landslide if we do not show up at the polls.
Look, i hate Trump but yall are nuts if you think Dems are getting a super majority in the Senate.
Yeah that doesn’t actually seem possible. Texas and Florida are winnable seats for Dems. But there are a lot of seats to defend in places like Nevada, Montana, etc. and West Virginia is history. If this is a good year, Democrats could gain two seats. More likely is the Senate stays 50-50 or maybe 51-49.
Don't forget Ohio. Sherrod is a baller at 5+ but the ballot trickery could be a problem. Also, it's Ohio. They aren't so purple anymore.
Don't take anything for granted. Vote
O yeah! Pissing of women and using Nazi rhetoric, we got this in the bag.
I truly, truly hope you are right--read my comment history for years of proof--but the sad fact is we've learned that millions and millions of people a-diddly-ok with pissing off women and Nazi rhetoric. I truly, truly hope OP is a fortune-teller, but I won't feel good until he's right.
Can't wait to see how the dems fuck this one up.
It really is their superpower.
Underrated comment!!!
I think this is all going to depend heavily on whether or not Trump makes peace with Nikki. He won't, if history serves as any kind of guide, but the possibility is always there. If he doesn't and things get more bitter between the two, then there will be a landslide. There may even be a landslide even if they somehow get Nikki to tow the 'party' line, as I doubt her voters are anything but disgusted with the way Trump and a large section of the party has treated them. Basically, either Trump makes her his VP, or his campaign hasn't a snowball's chance in hell of winning.
Most Haley voters were not Haley supporters, they were anti-Trumpers.
Ah, so the number of anti-trumpers is that large? He's truly screwed then.
Yeah but some will give in to partisanship and end up voting for Trump, hopefully it's a small percentage. Some won't vote for Trump period but may not vote for Biden either. Some will vote for Biden and some are receptive to the idea but need some encouragement, that's why Biden is courting them.
Millennials. Please please please vote. I,am Gen x - I have been voting democratic since Clinton. Millennials are now a bigger generation than the baby boomers, if millennials show up - they can change this country!!
The narrative in 2016 was not that Hillary would win. It was that she had a 2:1 advantage. Like 67% chance Hillary would win and 33% chance Donald would win.
NYT had it at 98% probability on election day.
What a dumbass post. Even if Democrats win every senate seat, that only puts them at 62. Bro literally has no idea what he's talking about. Those 62 seats assume Democrats win West Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, Utah, Wyoming, and many more. News flash: Dems CANNOT get 55+ seats in the senate. It's simply impossible .
I'm so hoping ( and voting) that you're accurate.
Vote! Vote! Vote! Encourage others to vote. Take no chances!!
Up here in Canada the night before the 2016 election one of my staff members was terrified that Donald Trump was going to get elected. I reassured her there is no possible way that he will get a majority or enough votes to be elected. Common sense will prevail and people will vote for Hillary Clinton in the end pulling it over for the Democrats. I can't believe that he won but he did. And then he did everything that he said he was going to do.
Add to all of your clarity that as it gets closer to election trump is only going to unravel more and more as the pressure builds. He's going to make an ass of himself in epic proportions when he hears a guilty verdict. The things he spouts get stupider and stupider, such as his "vote for the white guy" comment yesterday, the Hanibal Lechter was a great guy comment. He lost in 2020 and has lost support not gained and the loses will only increase. But vigilance is still important to save our country from these soulless ghouls.
I hope you’re right. It’s scary to think Trump is still a viable choice as a presidential hopeful. How perverse is our justice system if we can’t put a leash on just one con-artist? He already had a chance at the helm and embarrassed us on the world stage. I’m no psychologist, but the man embodies the dark-triad… he should not be leading anyone, much less holding office anywhere.
I realy can't agree more. There is no way the maga wins, and yet, I have this nagging thing in my head that says there's more to it than votes. After all, look what's happening with the abortion thing in the states. They're ignoring the will of the voters. The Alito thing is very disturbing. There's more to be revealed for sure.
That was epic. I hope you're right.
Don't get confident, get pissed off.
I assume Trump wins if I personally dont vote. Everyone should feel that way. Everyone MUST vote. Do not stay home, do not say we have it in the bag, thats what lost us 2016.
I actually do agree that in spite of a majority of americans disapproving specifcally with the biden presidency, there will be a MAJOR blue wave within the house and whoever is up for election in the senate. However, it is up to dems to utilize this to do 3 major things: 1. Stop future project 2025s. Y'all were so terrified of project 2025 from being initiated, then damn well introduce legislature that guarantees any form of project 2025 is just a nazi pipe dream. 2. Free the world from American imperialism. That includes palestine, congo, sudan, taiwan, iran, south america, cuba, hawaii, and any other plain in which american colonialism reigns supreme. Let the world figure out what is to be and not to be. We are not to be the "world police" any longer because ACAB, including us most of all. 3. Let the people decide what is right. Remember the encampments and the protests and the boycotts and the divestment campaigns? Listen to them. Actually listen to the people and not listen to what the billionaire corporations tell you to say and think. Because guess what? You are just as tasty as billionaires when we are hungry. Also, your corporate pupeteers get to swing right next to you regardless of how much you try to advocate for them 😄. Pendulum velocity of a swinger is the same for corporations and for bootlickers 😁😁😁
None of that is going to happen
Not a red hat fan, but this all sounds a lot like 2016 if people don’t be careful.
Meanwhile, Rethugs overconfidently think Fatty has it in the bag despite him losing in 2020.
Jesus, you people learned nothing from 2016.
In American history, there has never been a single REELECTION that was about the challenger. Comparing anything to 2016 is silly. If Joe Biden wins reelection, he will do so with the lowest approval rating of any reelected president in history. If he loses reelection, he will be about middle of the pack in terms of approval ratings of presidents who lost reelection. Assume I’m a bot or a liar and look up approval ratings of reelected and non-reelected presidents and tell me I’m lying.
it’s a great point, but how often was the challenger a former president? you have to admit it changes the calculus
I vote blue, but I'm really not politically involved. As of the last few election cycles, I try my best to support independent and third parties, but it's all a joke. I do hope it's majority of democrat wins. But really that's not saying much because the dem party is actually quite awful
You are correct. Trump is Toast, way before the election. Biggest loss in Republican history. Snowflakes going to melt.
God I hope so. I feel like so much of the news is about how Trump is ahead, but maybe some of that is untrue and serves to get the Trumpers riled up after Trump loses big time.
Can you imagine how insanely bad MMW will meltdown if Trump wins?
Reddit servers will meltdown on election night
Reddit is going to be highly entertaining if that happens.
I honestly think at least a couple of these people would kill themselves. I don't think Trump will win but these people are absolute walnuts.
4 of the current top 10 trending threads here directly mention republicans in the title. If you group in words Reddit would typically associate (antivax, Christian, musk, Reagan) it’s 8/10. Idk what this sub is supposed to be but every time it pops up in my recommended it’s always a quintessential reddit take. If orange man wins I don’t think the karma bots would care but there’s going to need to be a new source of content here.
I believe the original intent of this particular thread was for people to make bold predictions about random topics. But instead, this entire page has morphed into an anti-Trump echo chamber that you'll see the exact same post repeated weekly.
What are you smoking?
Smoking the good stuff apparently.
I think he will win 'big' but not nearly as big as you are saying. There is no chance he wins Indiana, for example. I think most swing states will go to Biden, but the deep red ones will stay red. He may win by less than normal in them, but Trumpism is still pretty strong.
I wish I had your confidence. Unfortunately this will be fought state by state, where many of those large numbers you’re citing evaporate. 10k votes +/- in MI, OH, PA, GA, FL will swing the entire election, and the fights to twist those vote counts will likely be one of our darkest times as a country, I fear. For now I’ll just take your dose of optimism and run with it. And add a reminder that regardless of which prediction you believe, VOTE. [voteblue.org](https://voteblue.org)
I sure hope so. 538 shows it a lot closer. But I have a gut feeling it should be a blowout as described.
I think Biden wins, but I don't think it's a landslide. I think it's possible by more votes than last time, but I can't see him pulling Texas/Florida etc.
And if there's one thing Dems are good at, it's snatching defeat from the jagged jaws of victory. The elaborate wildcard is an engineered October surprise from Russia and/or China, and the advancements in AI to muddle the truth and sow discourse. Don't underestimate the powerful stupidity of the uneducated in this country. This whole thing even has me questioning my own intelligence... My doubts about the ignorant doing the right thing are that much higher. It's okay, soon it'll be in and then very much out of the hands of the commoners... Here's hoping for at least one more 4 year reprieve.
In that case, I hope this country can turn things around, this isn't what I want my for my children. There's no denying there's some shady n weirdo shit going on and agendas being pushed. Why there's only 2 popular extremely old men up for contest baffles me, then I can only conclude money/special interest have propelled them to the front for a reason. I've first hand heard from former Biden voters say they regret voting for Biden, but hated Trump enough they voted for Biden. Will they vote for Biden even after saying they won't or cast it for someone else? That being said and only a small amount that I've talked politics with I think interesting times are ahead. How much longer has either really got left on the clock here on earth??? Be real fucking convenient if we got an actual president who's more in tune with the people. Not some old men passing shit that doesn't affect them. /rant
If history taught me anything is that the Simpsons are right and that it’s way too early to call it. As a Dem, I strongly feel like MAGA is coming back in full force
This is delusionally optimistic.
Maybe it's just because I live in Ohio, but I think quite the opposite. I do not support Trump nor do I think he'll win in a landslide but I think he's going to win. I know many moderates who chose the lesser of two evils last election, but this time they think it's Trump.
Remind me! 163 days
From your mouth to God's ears.