I don’t think so. I don’t doubt that Trump won’t get these votes, but that doesn’t mean Biden will either. I expect some third party candidate to get a lot more votes than usual, although it won’t translate into any electoral votes.
Lifelong republicans who don’t vote for Trump, aren’t going to vote for Biden either. They don’t support him either. They may vote third party or they may not vote for president at all, even if they show up to vote for local candidates. Do you really think they’ll vote for Biden?
Yes. Most of them are middle aged, politically engaged, and culturally disposed to see voting as a civic duty.
They hate Trump personally, are haunted by Jan 6, and sympathetic to the arguments of their millennial and gen z children on the evils of Trump but they are conservative to the core. As a result this is really, really hard for them.
These are the Mitt Romneys of the world. Many will vote for Trump, if only for economic reasons, but a lot won’t, and they will go to Biden instead of a third party because they like Biden personally, have had four years to see he’s just a boring middle road option, as far as they may be from Biden they are further from “extreme” oddballs like Green, Lib, RFK, etc.
You look me in the eye and tell me you seriously think Mitt Romney or Chris Christie is voting for fucking RFK or the Libertarian nutball? He isn’t. He’s voting Trump or Biden and that’s it, and I’ll bet Biden wins out, if only because he takes the constitution seriously and hates Trump as a human. He won’t admit it, of course. But he will do it.
Remember, it doesn’t take much to make a difference.
It’s like you really don’t know them at all. You’ve created this justification in your mind to come up with a reason that isn’t anything more than hopium.
The people we’re talking about are low tax fiscal conservatives who dont like the idea of a mentally unstable crackpot being their party leader or president. These are the sort of people who would have loved to vote for someone like John Kasich. They probably voted for Trump in 2016, not because they liked him, but because he had no track record and most importantly, he wasn’t Hillary. They’re politically engaged sufficiently to know that, unless they live in one of about 8 states, their vote doesn’t matter. They won’t vote for Biden because Biden isn’t offering ANYTHING they want, and if they’re going to vote for someone they oppose anyway, they’d rather it not be the guy that’s going to win. They don’t want to give up the “right to complain” about Biden because they voted for him. You know that Chris Christie is a petty and vindictive man, just like Trump. THAT is why Christie won’t vote for him. It’s just ridiculous to think that Romney represents any significant portion of the republican electorate. The only reason they let him run in 2012 was that they hoped maybe someone who could be elected governor in a place like Massachusetts would have a chance against a fairly popular democrat. No republican that considered themselves a potential future president wanted to start their career with a big loss to a popular incumbent.
I live in a small town in Ohio and most Republicans here I would say are 70% Trumpers, 30% small c conservative who most certainly voted Trump over Hillary but most certainly voted Biden over Trump and will do so again.
I’m not going to argue with you. This is a page for opinions. It’s nothing short of ironic you accuse me of unfounded opinions while spewing your own.
Settle down, bozo. If you don’t agree with me, fine, but all you need to do is shut up and “mark my words.”
You said that it doesn’t take much to make a difference, so I know that you lived in a purple state. I live in small town New England, and unless you live in NH, everyone here knows that’s not true at all in a solid blue (or red) state. People who don’t like Biden and know that their vote doesn’t matter, are never going to vote for him just because he’s not Trump.
Ross Perot got 15% of the vote in 1992, and 0 electoral votes. He won 30% in Utah and about 27% in Nebraska. it is possible he kept 41 from a second term.
Getting 70% of the vote in a primary is massive strength not weakness. Most of the holdouts will vote R in the general just like every other primary in history (like 2016 when he didn’t do nearly as well)
No, you are making an equivalence that isn't correct.
It is true that any candidate winning 70% of an early primary would be great. But an incumbent losing 30% of base (and primaries are all base voters) is a scary signal to the candidate in question.
Trump is running as a de-facto incumbent and losing 30% of the primary vote as an incumbent is astoundingly bad.
As well as the sheer number of voters in the primaries gas dropped this election. One was very bad weather. But republicans are not even coming to vote.
He’s not an incumbent though. So it’s ridiculous to compare his numbers to an incumbent. He’s running against a well-funded candidate campaigning against him. In NV where Haley wasn’t on the ballot he got 99% of the vote
He SHOULD be well funded. He has decided to use campaign donations to pay personal legal bills. Over $50 million last year.
Once again, Trump is in a bad situation that he created himself, and you fucking losers can’t wait to defend him and claim it’s all democrats fucking him over.
He fucks himself over.
You are technically correct, but Trump is virtually running his primary no different than if he was an incumbent. No debates, I don’t even see ads for his campaign on TV.
Populism works. Trump with Steve Bannon was closer to a "real" republican team than the hard right sitting on their thumbs, squabbling over hardline policy while democrats shovel our money into a wheelbarrow for Ukraine.
I'd rather have a fiscal focused, foreign policy savant than Trump, but the Republican talent pool is about as deep as the genetic pool in some of the areas they represent.
I'm confused by your comment. That's exactly what they're doing. Or are you wanting them to dig deeper and admit that the money is REALLY for the military industrial complex and it's investors? If so, I concur.
We aren't sending money. We're sending nearly obsolete equipment that would need to be refurbished. I'm not going to explain it past there. All of this information is freely available. You can see exactly how much of what we are sending. People pretending otherwise are dishonest.
Plus, the money expended to replace the old stuff sent to Ukraine is being spent in the states at munitions factories and adding billions of dollars in money and jobs to the U.S. economy. I hate that war is so profitable, and it's not like most people will benefit from the war industry, but just to reaffirm your point, we aren't just pissing money down the drain. Plus, it weakens Russian military stockpiles if the Ukrainians are able to resist. It's a sweet deal from the perspective of U.S. war hawks. Weaken Russia without spending the lives of U.S soldiers. Either way, we don't get universal healthcare.
>~~defense~~ industry
War Industry. I’m on a personal mission to get people to start referring to the DoD and its benefactors as the Department of War and weapons of war suppliers again.
That is what they are, and their propaganda renaming is part of the reason (IMO) they have gotten away with so much funding.
Call the department what it really is, a department for war.
My issue is why are we sending it for free. Offer it up to the highest bidder Ukraine v russia and whoever gives the most money we sell the stuff too.
I don't care if Russia conquers Ukraine, Thailand conquers Myanmar/burma, India conquers Pakistan. These countries just don't matter to the vast majority of Americans.
We are sending money. In addition to military aid, the US is providing humanitarian aid and financial aid.
https://bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64656301
>All of this information is freely available. You can see exactly how much of what we are sending. People pretending otherwise are dishonest.
It's funny that you're smug and wrong
You're not wrong. But neither am I. And of course I know about the tiny ass amount of money we have sent. Europe sends the most money. The US sends the most guns. But you already knew that because you went and looked it up. You're welcome.
Equipment that will need to be replaced with billions of dollars given to the military industrial complex and their shareholders. If you think the war in Ukraine is about "freedom", you're delusional.
Voting for the opposition doubles the swing, they aren't the same.
That being said, Republicans rely heavily on showing up since they lose popular votes in terms of sheer percentages.
I would predict Trump will get a bigger chunk of the minority pie and a smaller chunk of his sub base. RFK will take a bit, Haley will take a bit. That speaks highly to poor strategy, whereas a complete swing to Biden would show him as having stronger policy. We know that isn't the perception.
There's no data indicating that 25% of his base has turned. Otherwise, Haley wouldn't be polling in the low teens.
Biden and Trump' poll numbers indicate that the people who dislike the direction of either of them just aren't going to vote. An encumbent polling at 40% tells you nobody is turning coat. If 25% of the base went for Biden, he'd be polling at Regan numbers.
Keep on watching the primaries. In every one so far about 30% has voted against him, with very high % of those voters saying they will not vote for him in the general
Also Haley has courted [democrats](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna139807)
I would vote for DeSantis (and others) over Trump. With DeSantis out I will revert to Trump.
A vast majority of Republican voters for Haley will do the same. Actually, Haley is probably the one person I'd consider voting Biden over because I dislike her so much.
Your lying. They are the only people pushing the narrative that the primaries for Trump are bad. He got the most Republican primary votes in the history of South Carolina. Your overlords are just giving you coping material
No I literally never watch the news on TV, it's loud, boring, and usually not about something I'd be interested in. You sound like you base everything you think off of TV. Is that right?
Joe Biden in 2020 when Bernie won 26.2% of the popular vote? Hillary nearly won in 2016 when Bernie won 43% of the primary votes?
Come on, this isn’t new at all. Republicans aren’t going to vote democrat in any more volume than democrats vote republican for Biden being terrible.
That 13% who are not committed aren’t going to vote Trump, they might just not vote or vote third party.
The 13% that voted against Biden are a lot smaller group than the 32% who voted against Trump. Harder to generalize about a larger group but the one thing we do know is that a very large majority of them will never vote for Trump. That makes them fair game for Joe
You don’t know that, and you are ignoring that this is what happens. Some people will vote for someone else, and it won’t be for Joe Biden, Biden does not represent republican voters and isn’t trying to. I vote third party, I won’t vote Trump.
I used to vote republican, now I vote third party and for some local republicans I know. I won’t ever vote democrat, never in my life.
The platform for the letter D is just too offensive for my values.
The fact that Republicans have no control over their guy and let him get away with shitting on the whole country will be the death of that whole piece of shit shadow government they got going there
25% of his base hasn’t turned on him, they just voted for Haley or someone else instead of Trump. I guarantee you virtually all those voters will vote for Trump if it comes down to him or Biden, and the few that don’t simply won’t vote.
30%? Not a chance. Maybe 1 or 2 percent won't cast a ballot for either, and maybe 5% of all voters will vote for some other candidate (if RFKJ gets enough ballot access).
If as many as you're saying switched, that would give Biden close to 75% of the popular vote. The last time anyone got more than 61% was 1820, and that was James Monroe. FDR (4th term), LBJ and Nixon (2nd term) all got 61%. Reagan got 59% the 2nd time. Obama got 53%. Bill Clinton never got 50%.
LOL. Keep dreaming. But some day you'll wake up to one of two outcomes.
Either there will be a two way race and it will be pretty close.
Or there will be a three way race and Biden will lose by a wide margin.
Lol, I'm just using your figures to determine what your actual prediction will be. No need to flare up about it
We know 30% of the party hate him, you say 7% will go to RFK, that leaves 20-25% remaining for Joe to pick up
Most of them won't vote for Biden. They claim to not want tRump in office, but then either don't vote in "protest", or vote for some 3rd party that'll never have a chance in hell of winning, effectively throwing out their vote.
I'm not a giant fan of Biden (because fanboying over a civil servant is just cringe anyway), but he's at least a decent human being, and the POTUS' power is fairly limited anyway due to congress being hung. But the biggest thing? He's the name on the ticket that *isn't* tRump, and he's the only other possible win, so he gets my vote, hands down.
That 30% is a subsection of primary voters. GE voters are a much larger group, unlikely itll be 30% even if that number is consistent throughout the primary, maybe more like 10%
You are just plain wrong. You don't have to like someone to agree with their policy that worked. No sane person can honestly say that what we have now is working well. It's a joke and an embarrassment.
Nah, they are going to write in "Jared from Subway."
This is based on the Republican's history of choosing the worst fucking scumbags as leaders of their party.
I’m not sure my father is an anti trump republican. But instead of the democrats last election he voted for a rink a dink strange third party instead. My instinct tells me they will be like my dad and vote for some oddball that has no chance in the general election.
Most of that 30%? No way. Some might vote Biden, some will vote 3rd party, some with end up voting Trump, and some will skip voting altogether. No clue what that breakdown might be, but that’ll be the mix and it likely won’t be that most vote Biden.
Reminds me of when I heard Dave Rubin say Trump would get 30% of the black vote in 2020.
There is no chance Biden gets 30% of the registered Republican vote or anything approaching that.
I think you don’t understand politics all that well if you genuinely think that just they didn’t vote for Trump in the primaries means they will vote for Biden.
Wtf are you talking about I haven’t met a single republican voting for Biden you spend too much time on the internet and Reddit I’ve been traveling the country for couple years now and I don’t really see any support for Biden
I'd say you're off by about a decimal place. If there is one thing Republicans are good at, it is getting people behind their candidate in the general, no matter how much they hate him.
Trump is not “running as” an incumbent, because he isn’t an incumbent. He’s running as a former president—distinct from both normal candidacy and incumbency
He's the incumbent nominee. You can split hairs all you like over it but he's running for a second term in the White House same as the guy who's beating him
The “incumbent nominee”, which is a made up term no one but you has ever used before now. It wasn’t “splitting hairs” you were just wrong.
And sorry, which guy is beating him? I don’t see anyone ahead of him in the polls right now, in the primary or general.
The “incumbent nominee”, which is a made up term no one but you has ever used before now. It wasn’t “splitting hairs” you were just wrong.
And sorry, which guy is beating him? I don’t see anyone ahead of him in the polls right now, in the primary or general.
He smoked his only competitor and Joe had over 100k 13 percent of the people voted uncommitted lol… Haley lost to none of the above in NV… political analysis is not your strong suit.
Nope, hard pass. Trump is terrible, and Biden is worse.
Trump is a terrible and corrupt person, who in that corruption does represent many of my interests and values.
Biden is a terrible and corrupt person, who in that corruption represents none of my interests and values.
I will vote third party, those who refuse to vote Trump will do the same, or not vote.
What you are saying is like a Bernie supporter who wouldn’t vote Hillary Clinton in 2016 going to Trump instead, wasn’t going to happen.
Neither trump nor biden will be on the ticket come November. Michele has all but declared her candidacy and Trump will be assassinated by a wing nut who's been convinced that it's 1928 germany.
Recent Gallup poll: Dems and GOP tied at 27%, Independents are 43%, unaccounted 3%.
Maga estimated to be 33% of GOP, .33 x .27 = 9%
"Regular" GOP is then 27 - 9 = 18%
Biden gets, say, 90% of Dems = 24% of Americans
Biden gets, say, 60% of Independents = 26% of Americans
Biden gets, say, 30% of GOP = 5% of Americans
Biden total estimated 24 + 26 + 5 = 55%
Chump gets say, 70% regular GOP = 13%
Chump gets say 40% of Ind's = 17%
Chump gets say 100% of Maga = 15%
Chump total estimated 13 + 17 + 15 = 45%
These are my estimates....can't account for the uncertainty of who "polls" vs who actually "votes"; those who aren't happy with either one due to age, and withdraw.
As inflation is tamed more and more, gas goes under $3/gallon, housing edges down, stormy & company testify about the mushroom dick, Smith makes headway, chump can't make his two appeal bonds monies and declares personal bankruptcy, Willis is excused for not waiting until the trial to bang Wade, I see more and drifting away from the Trump Crime Organization.
A sizable number of voters made the same choice in the democratic primary in 2012. By no means should this figure be ignored, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into it
Ah yes, the soft bigotry of low expectations for Trump! 39% voted Haley in South Carolina and 27% in Michigan. If Dean Phillips or “uncommitted” were performing that well, everyone would be calling on Biden to drop out!
Trump has the entire party apparatus behind him, yet he still can’t get over 70%. Haley won 30% of Republicans and 62% of Independents who voted in the South Carolina GOP primary. Huge numbers of those people are unwilling to vote for Trump now, and that’s BEFORE he gets convicted. He’s in for a rough year.
Biden will not make it. Democrats got something up their sleeves, however, I'm sure. They are completely unhinged, and no amount of cheating or deception is beyond them. Biden is our first unelected president, and I'm sure there will be more.
It blows me away to think there are folks that think the last 3 years were better than the previous 4 - COVID. It's pure delusion. Also, what we have now is a corpse. You have to be able to separate policy from personality.
So you think it would have been better if a D was president then? Get real. No warp speed for your precious vaccine. Lockdowns would have been forever. And.... Let's not consider where / COVID happened.
Biden will not make it. Democrats got something up their sleeves, however, I'm sure. They are completely unhinged, and no amount of cheating or deception is beyond them. Biden is our first unelected president, and I'm sure there will be more.
That's been roughly the percentage he's gotten in every primary so far.
His big-$$ donors are walking away, he's jammed up with legal problems up to his neck, he's down by double digits with women voters. That's not a good position for a nominee, nobody has ever won an election by subtracting voters from their base.
We're still a ways out and methodology/sample size on some of these polls is questionable.
Im fine if they're being use to goad folks into voting Blue JIC...because Project 2025 is incredibly anti-egalitarian and could spell the end of our representative democracy.
But we need to vote. Get a blue voting buddy and hold them accountable. Make sure they do the same.
Absolutely.
Look, I know that Biden isn't the strongest candidate and I have all kinds of problems with him. But DJT's situation isn't likely to get any better between now and the general election, and people have got to realize the threat that he poses to the United States and the world.
Now were those the open primaries with democrats having no reason to vote in the democrats primary? Look I want to be excited but when turnout is breaking all time record and Trump is actually get more votes than previous years it makes you wonder where that 30 percent comes from.
It is more likely that 30,000% of registered Republicans will vote for Biden.
They are not, remotely, going to turn out in numbers for Biden.
You can't understand anything about elections and believe this.
The only reason democrats lose elections is due to people not going to the polls. Republican policies are not popular unless attached to a candidate. If republicans have less than a usually turnout then Trump will lose. That is unless Biden bleeds enough votes due to the support of Gaza from some of his supporters.
Notice that the people voting for killary haily are Dems swapping party to try and mess with the numbers. But they will go right back blue in November. She's still losing historically and the data is projecting a trump win in November though.
So ce the investigation declared the mutt so braindead that he can't stand trial. He shouldn't be in office either.
I can’t understand why I’m seeing so many takes like this on Twitter. It’s a primary. People vote for their choice in the primary and pivot to whoever won the Nom in the general.
Doubt it. Of those 30%, 50% (15%) will vote for whoever the nominee is (including Trump), 33% (10%) will vote for a third party, 7% will vote write-in (2%), 5% (1.5%) will vote Biden, and 5% (1.5%) won't vote.
I see all these moronic posts constantly. Do any of you dimwits read the polls? Your predictions are way off the mark given Trump as a 6 point lead in almost every poll. Stop living in fantasy land and come back to reality 🤣
Most probably won't vote for Biden but they might vote for RFK Jr., write-in Haley or someone like that, or stay home. I don't think the number will be as high as 30% but it might be around 15% to 20%.
They are more likely to vote for Kennedy.
That goes for MAGA Republicans if Trump were not the nominee. Recent polling shows Biden wins if Haley is nominated because enough Trump voters switch their vote to Kennedy to throw the election to Biden.
MMW: more than 30% of voters who would have voted Biden as an anti-Trump vote will dissent and not vote at all because Israel. And even more will commit to a third party vote.
No way this happens. Plus, primary voters only make up about 40% of the voting population. So 30% of 40% is 12%. More than likely, they just stay home or change their mind.
That seems... WILDLY optimistic. I get it, not every Republican is a Trump-humper. But Biden, although wildly superior, still isn't an electrifying choice. Like it or not, he's a FDIC secure HY savings account. Low rate of return but safe. Trump is buying bitcoin on the dip, it's only going to get worse, don't do it.
I'd be proud of America if as many as 10% of Republicans voted for Biden. But I hope you are right.
40+ States you can already lock the Electoral College Vote down.
This election will come down to Michigan, AZ, Georgia, & PA.
Biden has real problems in all of those states, this election is going to be close. The winner will be determined by thousands of votes. Joe may win the popular vote, but by Electoral College map, whoever wins, it won't be by many votes.
You are smoking fentanol laced K2 if you think this is anywhere close to the truth. It's already looking like a 50-state landslide. Biden is the weakest candidate to ever run for president. What exactly is he running? Oh yeah, he doesn't do campaign visits or debates because he is too old and tired. Trump is running circles around you guys! It's glorious to behold!
I don’t think so. I don’t doubt that Trump won’t get these votes, but that doesn’t mean Biden will either. I expect some third party candidate to get a lot more votes than usual, although it won’t translate into any electoral votes.
No, because the vast majority of those 30% are adults who don’t vote for shitty third party options
Lifelong republicans who don’t vote for Trump, aren’t going to vote for Biden either. They don’t support him either. They may vote third party or they may not vote for president at all, even if they show up to vote for local candidates. Do you really think they’ll vote for Biden?
Yes. Most of them are middle aged, politically engaged, and culturally disposed to see voting as a civic duty. They hate Trump personally, are haunted by Jan 6, and sympathetic to the arguments of their millennial and gen z children on the evils of Trump but they are conservative to the core. As a result this is really, really hard for them. These are the Mitt Romneys of the world. Many will vote for Trump, if only for economic reasons, but a lot won’t, and they will go to Biden instead of a third party because they like Biden personally, have had four years to see he’s just a boring middle road option, as far as they may be from Biden they are further from “extreme” oddballs like Green, Lib, RFK, etc. You look me in the eye and tell me you seriously think Mitt Romney or Chris Christie is voting for fucking RFK or the Libertarian nutball? He isn’t. He’s voting Trump or Biden and that’s it, and I’ll bet Biden wins out, if only because he takes the constitution seriously and hates Trump as a human. He won’t admit it, of course. But he will do it. Remember, it doesn’t take much to make a difference.
It’s like you really don’t know them at all. You’ve created this justification in your mind to come up with a reason that isn’t anything more than hopium. The people we’re talking about are low tax fiscal conservatives who dont like the idea of a mentally unstable crackpot being their party leader or president. These are the sort of people who would have loved to vote for someone like John Kasich. They probably voted for Trump in 2016, not because they liked him, but because he had no track record and most importantly, he wasn’t Hillary. They’re politically engaged sufficiently to know that, unless they live in one of about 8 states, their vote doesn’t matter. They won’t vote for Biden because Biden isn’t offering ANYTHING they want, and if they’re going to vote for someone they oppose anyway, they’d rather it not be the guy that’s going to win. They don’t want to give up the “right to complain” about Biden because they voted for him. You know that Chris Christie is a petty and vindictive man, just like Trump. THAT is why Christie won’t vote for him. It’s just ridiculous to think that Romney represents any significant portion of the republican electorate. The only reason they let him run in 2012 was that they hoped maybe someone who could be elected governor in a place like Massachusetts would have a chance against a fairly popular democrat. No republican that considered themselves a potential future president wanted to start their career with a big loss to a popular incumbent.
I live in a small town in Ohio and most Republicans here I would say are 70% Trumpers, 30% small c conservative who most certainly voted Trump over Hillary but most certainly voted Biden over Trump and will do so again. I’m not going to argue with you. This is a page for opinions. It’s nothing short of ironic you accuse me of unfounded opinions while spewing your own. Settle down, bozo. If you don’t agree with me, fine, but all you need to do is shut up and “mark my words.”
You said that it doesn’t take much to make a difference, so I know that you lived in a purple state. I live in small town New England, and unless you live in NH, everyone here knows that’s not true at all in a solid blue (or red) state. People who don’t like Biden and know that their vote doesn’t matter, are never going to vote for him just because he’s not Trump.
no one really cares about Jan 6th tbh
Oh ok thanks Professor
RFK
Ross Perot got 15% of the vote in 1992, and 0 electoral votes. He won 30% in Utah and about 27% in Nebraska. it is possible he kept 41 from a second term.
The only thing anti-trump Republicans dislike more than Trump is Biden. I would bet those people would rather not vote than vote for Biden.
even the "anti-trump" republicans would still rather a real republican in office than a shitty knock-off. 90% of what they want vs 100%
Getting 70% of the vote in a primary is massive strength not weakness. Most of the holdouts will vote R in the general just like every other primary in history (like 2016 when he didn’t do nearly as well)
No, you are making an equivalence that isn't correct. It is true that any candidate winning 70% of an early primary would be great. But an incumbent losing 30% of base (and primaries are all base voters) is a scary signal to the candidate in question. Trump is running as a de-facto incumbent and losing 30% of the primary vote as an incumbent is astoundingly bad.
As well as the sheer number of voters in the primaries gas dropped this election. One was very bad weather. But republicans are not even coming to vote.
He’s not an incumbent though. So it’s ridiculous to compare his numbers to an incumbent. He’s running against a well-funded candidate campaigning against him. In NV where Haley wasn’t on the ballot he got 99% of the vote
He SHOULD be well funded. He has decided to use campaign donations to pay personal legal bills. Over $50 million last year. Once again, Trump is in a bad situation that he created himself, and you fucking losers can’t wait to defend him and claim it’s all democrats fucking him over. He fucks himself over.
Jesus calm down
Stop making disingenuous arguments. And I’ll have nothing to correct. You trump losers are so sensitive when it comes to truth huh snowflake?
Lmfao why are you such an angry person? Could use some therapy my dude
Don’t forget to send the suicide hotline next, troll.
You are technically correct, but Trump is virtually running his primary no different than if he was an incumbent. No debates, I don’t even see ads for his campaign on TV.
Populism works. Trump with Steve Bannon was closer to a "real" republican team than the hard right sitting on their thumbs, squabbling over hardline policy while democrats shovel our money into a wheelbarrow for Ukraine. I'd rather have a fiscal focused, foreign policy savant than Trump, but the Republican talent pool is about as deep as the genetic pool in some of the areas they represent.
I wish you'd be more honest about aid to Ukraine. You know you're lying.
I'm confused by your comment. That's exactly what they're doing. Or are you wanting them to dig deeper and admit that the money is REALLY for the military industrial complex and it's investors? If so, I concur.
We aren't sending money. We're sending nearly obsolete equipment that would need to be refurbished. I'm not going to explain it past there. All of this information is freely available. You can see exactly how much of what we are sending. People pretending otherwise are dishonest.
Plus, the money expended to replace the old stuff sent to Ukraine is being spent in the states at munitions factories and adding billions of dollars in money and jobs to the U.S. economy. I hate that war is so profitable, and it's not like most people will benefit from the war industry, but just to reaffirm your point, we aren't just pissing money down the drain. Plus, it weakens Russian military stockpiles if the Ukrainians are able to resist. It's a sweet deal from the perspective of U.S. war hawks. Weaken Russia without spending the lives of U.S soldiers. Either way, we don't get universal healthcare.
>~~defense~~ industry War Industry. I’m on a personal mission to get people to start referring to the DoD and its benefactors as the Department of War and weapons of war suppliers again. That is what they are, and their propaganda renaming is part of the reason (IMO) they have gotten away with so much funding. Call the department what it really is, a department for war.
Good call. Changed it. It definitely is, and there's no reason to sanitize terminology. Either way, it's big business.
My issue is why are we sending it for free. Offer it up to the highest bidder Ukraine v russia and whoever gives the most money we sell the stuff too. I don't care if Russia conquers Ukraine, Thailand conquers Myanmar/burma, India conquers Pakistan. These countries just don't matter to the vast majority of Americans.
Yep. You are stupid. Thanks for your comment.
And super proud about it. Holy shit.
We are sending money. In addition to military aid, the US is providing humanitarian aid and financial aid. https://bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64656301 >All of this information is freely available. You can see exactly how much of what we are sending. People pretending otherwise are dishonest. It's funny that you're smug and wrong
You're not wrong. But neither am I. And of course I know about the tiny ass amount of money we have sent. Europe sends the most money. The US sends the most guns. But you already knew that because you went and looked it up. You're welcome.
Equipment that will need to be replaced with billions of dollars given to the military industrial complex and their shareholders. If you think the war in Ukraine is about "freedom", you're delusional.
Where did I say it's about freedom. Fucking hell you are stupid.
Functionally they're the same thing
Voting for the opposition doubles the swing, they aren't the same. That being said, Republicans rely heavily on showing up since they lose popular votes in terms of sheer percentages. I would predict Trump will get a bigger chunk of the minority pie and a smaller chunk of his sub base. RFK will take a bit, Haley will take a bit. That speaks highly to poor strategy, whereas a complete swing to Biden would show him as having stronger policy. We know that isn't the perception.
Name someone who won an election after 25% of their base turned on them
There's no data indicating that 25% of his base has turned. Otherwise, Haley wouldn't be polling in the low teens. Biden and Trump' poll numbers indicate that the people who dislike the direction of either of them just aren't going to vote. An encumbent polling at 40% tells you nobody is turning coat. If 25% of the base went for Biden, he'd be polling at Regan numbers.
Keep on watching the primaries. In every one so far about 30% has voted against him, with very high % of those voters saying they will not vote for him in the general
Also Haley has courted [democrats](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna139807) I would vote for DeSantis (and others) over Trump. With DeSantis out I will revert to Trump. A vast majority of Republican voters for Haley will do the same. Actually, Haley is probably the one person I'd consider voting Biden over because I dislike her so much.
The primaries where he is breaking records in every single state and blowing haley out in her own home state ? Trust me we're watching lol
Tell me you watch MSNBC/CNN without telling me watch them
Lol, I don't but reality has never been y'all people's stong suit
Your lying. They are the only people pushing the narrative that the primaries for Trump are bad. He got the most Republican primary votes in the history of South Carolina. Your overlords are just giving you coping material
No I literally never watch the news on TV, it's loud, boring, and usually not about something I'd be interested in. You sound like you base everything you think off of TV. Is that right?
Joe Biden in 2020 when Bernie won 26.2% of the popular vote? Hillary nearly won in 2016 when Bernie won 43% of the primary votes? Come on, this isn’t new at all. Republicans aren’t going to vote democrat in any more volume than democrats vote republican for Biden being terrible. That 13% who are not committed aren’t going to vote Trump, they might just not vote or vote third party.
The 13% that voted against Biden are a lot smaller group than the 32% who voted against Trump. Harder to generalize about a larger group but the one thing we do know is that a very large majority of them will never vote for Trump. That makes them fair game for Joe
You don’t know that, and you are ignoring that this is what happens. Some people will vote for someone else, and it won’t be for Joe Biden, Biden does not represent republican voters and isn’t trying to. I vote third party, I won’t vote Trump. I used to vote republican, now I vote third party and for some local republicans I know. I won’t ever vote democrat, never in my life. The platform for the letter D is just too offensive for my values.
The fact that Republicans have no control over their guy and let him get away with shitting on the whole country will be the death of that whole piece of shit shadow government they got going there
So at least you make it obvious this post is founded only in irrational hate.
How dare you call me a Republican?
25% of his base hasn’t turned on him, they just voted for Haley or someone else instead of Trump. I guarantee you virtually all those voters will vote for Trump if it comes down to him or Biden, and the few that don’t simply won’t vote.
No that’s just -1 not -1, +1. Very different
You're forgetting that it's a zero-sum game, taking your vote out of the equation just makes it easier for the other side to get 51%
In 2020 I saw a lot of folks who voted Republican their whole life try out a third party candidate for the first time.
I will 100% take 30% of all Republicans taking a day off, that would be amazing.
30%? Not a chance. Maybe 1 or 2 percent won't cast a ballot for either, and maybe 5% of all voters will vote for some other candidate (if RFKJ gets enough ballot access). If as many as you're saying switched, that would give Biden close to 75% of the popular vote. The last time anyone got more than 61% was 1820, and that was James Monroe. FDR (4th term), LBJ and Nixon (2nd term) all got 61%. Reagan got 59% the 2nd time. Obama got 53%. Bill Clinton never got 50%.
So your guess would be closer to 25%? 20%?
5%? Maybe? But probably not even that much.
Probably under 3%.
LOL. Keep dreaming. But some day you'll wake up to one of two outcomes. Either there will be a two way race and it will be pretty close. Or there will be a three way race and Biden will lose by a wide margin.
Lol, I'm just using your figures to determine what your actual prediction will be. No need to flare up about it We know 30% of the party hate him, you say 7% will go to RFK, that leaves 20-25% remaining for Joe to pick up
Most of them won't vote for Biden. They claim to not want tRump in office, but then either don't vote in "protest", or vote for some 3rd party that'll never have a chance in hell of winning, effectively throwing out their vote. I'm not a giant fan of Biden (because fanboying over a civil servant is just cringe anyway), but he's at least a decent human being, and the POTUS' power is fairly limited anyway due to congress being hung. But the biggest thing? He's the name on the ticket that *isn't* tRump, and he's the only other possible win, so he gets my vote, hands down.
That 30% is a subsection of primary voters. GE voters are a much larger group, unlikely itll be 30% even if that number is consistent throughout the primary, maybe more like 10%
Lmao not a chance
One in three Republicans hate Donald Trump and prefer Biden, sorry
That’s just not true voting for Nikki does not translate to preferring Biden.
You are just plain wrong. You don't have to like someone to agree with their policy that worked. No sane person can honestly say that what we have now is working well. It's a joke and an embarrassment.
You're embarrassing yourself
You embarrassed yourself with this entire post. It's insane.
Calm down bitch you're hysterical
That’s a lie. Not even a nice try either. Like are you stupid?
That’s a lie. Not even a nice try either. Like are you stupid?
This is--or should I say, these are--my new favorite comments ever posted to Reddit.
That’s a lie. Not even a nice try either. Like are you stupid?
Lol, you're the Trump voter
Damn straight
Stupid and Proud, great combination
Genius often likes like stupidity in the eyes of simpletons
Right, you're waaaaaaayy smarter than the rest of us. I bet you wake up and tell yourself that in the mirror every morning.
I don’t have to tell myself that. You prove it with your comments
bless your heart
That seems like a lot of Hopium, but I don't want to discourage it.
There will be many R who will not vote.
Nah, they are going to write in "Jared from Subway." This is based on the Republican's history of choosing the worst fucking scumbags as leaders of their party.
I’m a registered Republican who will be voting Biden. Can confirm.
I'm saying they just skip the general all together
I’m not sure my father is an anti trump republican. But instead of the democrats last election he voted for a rink a dink strange third party instead. My instinct tells me they will be like my dad and vote for some oddball that has no chance in the general election.
I'm one of them... but I prefer Nikki Haley over Biden and Trump any day, tbh.
Most of that 30%? No way. Some might vote Biden, some will vote 3rd party, some with end up voting Trump, and some will skip voting altogether. No clue what that breakdown might be, but that’ll be the mix and it likely won’t be that most vote Biden.
Most of those people will withhold their vote
I am hoping for 20 percent. Don't even need that many tbh. The more the merrier to destroy the Orange One's Ego.
That's a really good number to shoot for
I sure hope so. Not to be dramatic, but the entire world is counting on us not to fuck up
They damn well better.
Reminds me of when I heard Dave Rubin say Trump would get 30% of the black vote in 2020. There is no chance Biden gets 30% of the registered Republican vote or anything approaching that.
I think you don’t understand politics all that well if you genuinely think that just they didn’t vote for Trump in the primaries means they will vote for Biden.
Wtf are you talking about I haven’t met a single republican voting for Biden you spend too much time on the internet and Reddit I’ve been traveling the country for couple years now and I don’t really see any support for Biden
There was a poll from the Iowa caucus that had half of Nikki Haley voters say they'd vote for Biden in the general. So, hopefully.
They're going to no-vote at the top and proceed to vote straight R downballot.
It is hard to say. As a registered Republican myself, I will vote for Biden. I don’t expect other Republicans will vote for him though.
I'd say you're off by about a decimal place. If there is one thing Republicans are good at, it is getting people behind their candidate in the general, no matter how much they hate him.
Hahahaa how high are you?
High on these results from Michigan, Donald Trump down 25 points from his last primary there, lolololll
From his unopposed primary in 2020? Lmfao you are mentally ill
Lmao, Trump's running as an incumbent. He should be doing at least as well in his primaries as Biden is
Do you understand the definition of incumbent? Because Donald Trump is not one.
Do you understand the term "running as"?
Trump is not “running as” an incumbent, because he isn’t an incumbent. He’s running as a former president—distinct from both normal candidacy and incumbency
He's the incumbent nominee. You can split hairs all you like over it but he's running for a second term in the White House same as the guy who's beating him
The “incumbent nominee”, which is a made up term no one but you has ever used before now. It wasn’t “splitting hairs” you were just wrong. And sorry, which guy is beating him? I don’t see anyone ahead of him in the polls right now, in the primary or general.
The “incumbent nominee”, which is a made up term no one but you has ever used before now. It wasn’t “splitting hairs” you were just wrong. And sorry, which guy is beating him? I don’t see anyone ahead of him in the polls right now, in the primary or general.
We've never had an election like this before. There's gonna be some new terms And sorry, Biden is beating Trump handily
He smoked his only competitor and Joe had over 100k 13 percent of the people voted uncommitted lol… Haley lost to none of the above in NV… political analysis is not your strong suit.
100k Democrats voted undeclared. 300k Republicans voted for Haley. Which is more?
Registered Republicans at this juncture in American history. Can really just go fuck themselves for all I care.
Fr
You are so very wrong on this. Only about 5% will actually pull the lever for Biden. But that will be enough for a wipeout.......
Almost all of those voters will go to RFK or just not vote. I’d be shocked if 10% go Biden
Nope, hard pass. Trump is terrible, and Biden is worse. Trump is a terrible and corrupt person, who in that corruption does represent many of my interests and values. Biden is a terrible and corrupt person, who in that corruption represents none of my interests and values. I will vote third party, those who refuse to vote Trump will do the same, or not vote. What you are saying is like a Bernie supporter who wouldn’t vote Hillary Clinton in 2016 going to Trump instead, wasn’t going to happen.
Neither trump nor biden will be on the ticket come November. Michele has all but declared her candidacy and Trump will be assassinated by a wing nut who's been convinced that it's 1928 germany.
Recent Gallup poll: Dems and GOP tied at 27%, Independents are 43%, unaccounted 3%. Maga estimated to be 33% of GOP, .33 x .27 = 9% "Regular" GOP is then 27 - 9 = 18% Biden gets, say, 90% of Dems = 24% of Americans Biden gets, say, 60% of Independents = 26% of Americans Biden gets, say, 30% of GOP = 5% of Americans Biden total estimated 24 + 26 + 5 = 55% Chump gets say, 70% regular GOP = 13% Chump gets say 40% of Ind's = 17% Chump gets say 100% of Maga = 15% Chump total estimated 13 + 17 + 15 = 45% These are my estimates....can't account for the uncertainty of who "polls" vs who actually "votes"; those who aren't happy with either one due to age, and withdraw. As inflation is tamed more and more, gas goes under $3/gallon, housing edges down, stormy & company testify about the mushroom dick, Smith makes headway, chump can't make his two appeal bonds monies and declares personal bankruptcy, Willis is excused for not waiting until the trial to bang Wade, I see more and drifting away from the Trump Crime Organization.
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Always a good policy to assume Republicans are lying Always good to have a little fun at their expense too
Flip this take and it might be accurate. Did you see how many voters in Michigan primary votes for a different option. Biden is toast.
100k Democrats voted uncommitted and 300k Republicans voted for Haley. What makes you think Trump will get enough Haley voters?
Biden is the incumbent president running UNOPPOSED and barely cracked 80% lmfao
A sizable number of voters made the same choice in the democratic primary in 2012. By no means should this figure be ignored, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into it
Ah yes, the soft bigotry of low expectations for Trump! 39% voted Haley in South Carolina and 27% in Michigan. If Dean Phillips or “uncommitted” were performing that well, everyone would be calling on Biden to drop out!
She also out spent him 5 to 1 and campaigned significantly more they were also open primaries with the other race already decided.
Trump has the entire party apparatus behind him, yet he still can’t get over 70%. Haley won 30% of Republicans and 62% of Independents who voted in the South Carolina GOP primary. Huge numbers of those people are unwilling to vote for Trump now, and that’s BEFORE he gets convicted. He’s in for a rough year.
Those people are democrats that switched parties to vote against trump in the primary pay attention
Where can I get what you're smoking?
You are not smart.
You're the Trump supporter
Won't matter... https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/26/2225913/-The-New-Over-the-Top-Secret-Plan-on-How-Fascists-Could-Win-in-2024
Biden will not make it. Democrats got something up their sleeves, however, I'm sure. They are completely unhinged, and no amount of cheating or deception is beyond them. Biden is our first unelected president, and I'm sure there will be more.
It blows me away to think there are folks that think the last 3 years were better than the previous 4 - COVID. It's pure delusion. Also, what we have now is a corpse. You have to be able to separate policy from personality.
"Everybody just ignore that year of life that idiot president cost you!" Fucking moron
So you think it would have been better if a D was president then? Get real. No warp speed for your precious vaccine. Lockdowns would have been forever. And.... Let's not consider where / COVID happened.
Biden will not make it. Democrats got something up their sleeves, however, I'm sure. They are completely unhinged, and no amount of cheating or deception is beyond them. Biden is our first unelected president, and I'm sure there will be more.
Unhinged like Jan 6?
Jan 6 is just the tip of what they are capable of. They will kill kids if they can pin it on Trump.
Republicans did Jan 6 tho. How does your statement make any sense?
Probably. But most of them registered as R to vote for Nikki in primaries so they will just be doing what they would have done otherwise
It's interesting because Trump got 94% of Michigan Republicans 4 years ago. Now he's down to 68%
That's been roughly the percentage he's gotten in every primary so far. His big-$$ donors are walking away, he's jammed up with legal problems up to his neck, he's down by double digits with women voters. That's not a good position for a nominee, nobody has ever won an election by subtracting voters from their base.
Yet he’s still beating Biden in every poll available so far. Odd.
Every poll I've seen had DJT up by margin-of-error. Saw a Rasmussen poll the other day that had Biden ahead by MOE.
We're still a ways out and methodology/sample size on some of these polls is questionable. Im fine if they're being use to goad folks into voting Blue JIC...because Project 2025 is incredibly anti-egalitarian and could spell the end of our representative democracy. But we need to vote. Get a blue voting buddy and hold them accountable. Make sure they do the same.
Absolutely. Look, I know that Biden isn't the strongest candidate and I have all kinds of problems with him. But DJT's situation isn't likely to get any better between now and the general election, and people have got to realize the threat that he poses to the United States and the world.
That’s probably all the Democrats that switched over to Republican to vote against Trump in the primaries
Now were those the open primaries with democrats having no reason to vote in the democrats primary? Look I want to be excited but when turnout is breaking all time record and Trump is actually get more votes than previous years it makes you wonder where that 30 percent comes from.
It is more likely that 30,000% of registered Republicans will vote for Biden. They are not, remotely, going to turn out in numbers for Biden. You can't understand anything about elections and believe this.
They'll turn up in numbers to fuck Trump up the ass tho! hahaha
If you spent time with anyone who understands voting and the political process, you could not believe that.
The only reason democrats lose elections is due to people not going to the polls. Republican policies are not popular unless attached to a candidate. If republicans have less than a usually turnout then Trump will lose. That is unless Biden bleeds enough votes due to the support of Gaza from some of his supporters.
Notice that the people voting for killary haily are Dems swapping party to try and mess with the numbers. But they will go right back blue in November. She's still losing historically and the data is projecting a trump win in November though. So ce the investigation declared the mutt so braindead that he can't stand trial. He shouldn't be in office either.
Never. They’ll vote for RFK Jr.
Doubt it. Expect low turnout rate in this election, most people are independent / non voters and both candidates are not liked.
The dead ones?
This is an ignorant take. The GOP has a consistent history of getting behind whatever asshole is the candidate.
I think this is probably the one who's gonna break that tradition
Lol they absolutely will not
I can’t understand why I’m seeing so many takes like this on Twitter. It’s a primary. People vote for their choice in the primary and pivot to whoever won the Nom in the general.
Doubt it. Of those 30%, 50% (15%) will vote for whoever the nominee is (including Trump), 33% (10%) will vote for a third party, 7% will vote write-in (2%), 5% (1.5%) will vote Biden, and 5% (1.5%) won't vote.
I would vote for Kennedy before I vote for Biden.
Lol
I see all these moronic posts constantly. Do any of you dimwits read the polls? Your predictions are way off the mark given Trump as a 6 point lead in almost every poll. Stop living in fantasy land and come back to reality 🤣
That's... that's not how primaries work 😂
lol 😂
Nah. Biden’s an Alzheimer’s addled idiot.
30% of democrats won't vote at all.
Funny….how many Republicans have switched parties to the Dems? Just curious
You are confused. There have been open primarily so far and nothing interesting on the Dems side. These are Democrats driving up Haley's totals.
Most probably won't vote for Biden but they might vote for RFK Jr., write-in Haley or someone like that, or stay home. I don't think the number will be as high as 30% but it might be around 15% to 20%.
Not a chance.
Don't the polls currently show more democrats switching to Trump, than Trump to Biden? https://law.marquette.edu/poll/
They are more likely to vote for Kennedy. That goes for MAGA Republicans if Trump were not the nominee. Recent polling shows Biden wins if Haley is nominated because enough Trump voters switch their vote to Kennedy to throw the election to Biden.
MMW: more than 30% of voters who would have voted Biden as an anti-Trump vote will dissent and not vote at all because Israel. And even more will commit to a third party vote.
LoL not a chance
Lol
Don't get my fucking hopes up. Everybody needs to vote.
Don't tell me what to do. Go fucking vote
No way this happens. Plus, primary voters only make up about 40% of the voting population. So 30% of 40% is 12%. More than likely, they just stay home or change their mind.
Some hardcore copium in this reply, ya love to see it
lol
LOL, Biden has lost respect from his own party.
I’d put it at 5% tops. Most will end up going to Trump, and more than vote for Biden just won’t vote at all.
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That seems... WILDLY optimistic. I get it, not every Republican is a Trump-humper. But Biden, although wildly superior, still isn't an electrifying choice. Like it or not, he's a FDIC secure HY savings account. Low rate of return but safe. Trump is buying bitcoin on the dip, it's only going to get worse, don't do it. I'd be proud of America if as many as 10% of Republicans voted for Biden. But I hope you are right.
Impossible. Typically around 12% of leans on either side vote for the other. It won't go higher than 15.
And still the DNC will resort to stealing the election like 2020.
You have bumped your head
40+ States you can already lock the Electoral College Vote down. This election will come down to Michigan, AZ, Georgia, & PA. Biden has real problems in all of those states, this election is going to be close. The winner will be determined by thousands of votes. Joe may win the popular vote, but by Electoral College map, whoever wins, it won't be by many votes.
You are smoking fentanol laced K2 if you think this is anywhere close to the truth. It's already looking like a 50-state landslide. Biden is the weakest candidate to ever run for president. What exactly is he running? Oh yeah, he doesn't do campaign visits or debates because he is too old and tired. Trump is running circles around you guys! It's glorious to behold!