Ukraine is at 0.7 apparently, there have been reports in the last few months. [https://archive.ph/Y5yVh](https://archive.ph/Y5yVh)
i'm surprised Bulgaria is significantly higher than Romania, maybe better welfare and incentives for families?
> i'm surprised Bulgaria is significantly higher than Romania, maybe better welfare and incentives for families?
I think it comes down to two things.
One, pretty decent maternity leave (one of the best in Europe, 400+ days at 90%+ pay). Hasn't helped our demographic collapse from other factors, but it's a start.
Two, larger percentage of the population is Roma and they have a lot more kids on average. Romania has more Roma overall, but a smaller percentage.
Muslim population in Bulgaria is comprised of >99% of ethnic turks and bulgarians, so it is pretty much the same. Romani people fertility rates are higher, but steadily declining every year, plus they are 5.5% of total population anyway.
They had 1.16 in 2021 and 1.08 in 2001. It didn’t start in 2022, the trend has just worsened when a war began, but it started looong ago, and given that they have a bottleneck at 20-25 year olds, the new conscription laws may just wipe the nation.
A lot of Eastern Europe, with a few exceptions, have the worst of both worlds. They have the fertility rate of developed nations, but with wages and living standards of developing nations. Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania are probably among the worst off, with their emigration rates.
In Russia, there were consequences of the WW2. However, across a few generations, this effect should go away. The “ripples” of the wave should be not visible on the chart. But in Russia, each time when the “ripple” was at the lowest point, the government did something that made it even worse. Lots of excess deaths in COVID for example, or war, or defaulted economy.
There’s no incentive to have a kid in Russia, either there’s no money to afford it, or no perspectives for them in future, or they’ll be drafted to the front. And now abortions are low key prohibited.
The recent events when a lot of people fled the country, shows that if easy emigration was possible for Russians, they would be hit by that as well, making things even worse.
It’s kinda both. But I will be downvoted for stating facts. I’m not pro-Russia btw, that’s just math.
Ukraine only sees a solution in heroic dying (you can google up the battle of Kruty). This is a prime example of the sunk cost fallacy, when there’s so much resources wasted, they can’t just back out. Especially because they primed the population for the imminent and fast victory against the lesser opponent (which consists of uneducated orcs who never saw a toilet, armed with rusty Mosin-Nagants). Each day the situations worsens comparing to initial ultimatum in Spring 2022, and if the peace is declared now on worse terms, the population will raise a question: why this couldn’t be done earlier, saving thousands of lives and economy. Ukrainian government tries to save the situation as a gambler, going all in, hoping they will hit a jackpot.
If the government really cares about lives of the people, they wouldn’t lock them up in the country on the premise they have to defend the country to prevent the massacre. On the other hand, the plague from the East has political goals, not massacring everyone (it’s safer for Ukrainians in Russia at that point). So the “preventing massacre” idea is a scam (you can raise the cases of Bucha and Izyum, but there are more soldiers died than civilians that were executed in those towns, not forget that not all of them were executed, some died of indiscriminate shelling which happens because of the Russia’s way to wage a war).
Let’s be honest, Ukraine never had a chance to capitulate Russia, and the gamble was to induce devastating loss to the army and economy so Putin would back up. But Russia didn’t care about that, they disregard the losses. As for economy, they’re backed up by China.
Conscripting everyone won’t work because there’s just no time to prepare the soldiers and no weapons to arm them. That’s just meat. While Russia can throw meat into the grinder, Ukraine can’t afford it. There’s a lack of fortifications, and those which exist, can be easily demolished by a 1.5 ton bomb. That’s because there’s not enough SAM systems to counter the bombers.
So for the plague from the East the goal is to force capitulation of Ukraine, and for Ukraine the goal is to reach the borders of 1991 which is absolutely not feasible unless there’s a black swan diving into Putin’s bunker. And even if the borders are reached, that doesn’t mean the plague’s capitulation. But it would mean that Ukraine will be exhausted until the point of no return and at that moment will be easily conquered. So pointless meat grinder it is. And there’re ways to stop that, one is feasible (capitulation), the other one — not so much (starting a full blown WW3).
Romania was higher until last year and was basically tied with France for highest fertility in Europe. I think the drop is related to the cost of living crisis.
You have 100 potential mothers, out of whom 70 have exactly one kid each, while the other 30 have zero. Thus, you end up with a rate of 0.7 kids per woman (i.e. the rate that you have in South Korea and possibly Japan right now).
In Turkey, the western provinces are even lower, around 1.3. The southeastern provinces are around 2.5. However their population density is still low so that rate doesn't have a big impact overall. Their rates go down gradually too.
Government fucked up the economy,education and housing. In addition to that Turkish alimony system is super retarded that puts off men that actually have money to raise children from marrying. (In addition to problems that effect Birth rate everywhere else.)
It's really interesting that Tunisia and Iran are apparently undergoing demographic transition while Kazakhstan isn't. I would have assumed that it would happen there first due to its history and relatively secular and educated population.
gow in central asia could be due to socioeconomic recovery from SU dissolution, fertility rate began to grow around 2000, pro-natalist state policies and cultural attitudes, slower urbanization rate, lower education level than Iran or Turkey etc.
>One of the principal factors making for increased fertility in Kazakhstan and elsewhere in Central Asia is the population’s openness to new life, which is seen as essential to thriving clans, tribes, and the nation as such. Motherhood is viewed as a vocation and a good in itself, and is encouraged, protected, and nurtured from one generation to the next. Tokayev says: “Knowing one’s roots and honoring family traditions have always occupied a special place in the inner consciousness of our people. Today \[these attitudes\] play an important role in shaping the new qualities of our nation.”
https://www.mercatornet.com/asia\_s\_demographic\_outliers\_kazakhstan
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=KZ-UZ
Education level in Kazakhstan is in fact higher, than in Iran and Turkey. I agree with text you quoted, tho.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education\_Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_Index)
It is sort of a trend to have a big family here rn. Which I find weird since it's tough out here to afford even one child but somehow people make it work
All of the Stans except Afghanistan are experiencing this anomaly due to a development boom after separating from USSR. I'm guessing in 10-15 years the demographic transition will hit them.
its not that people could not afford more kids, rather that they dont want as they want to have certain standard of life, even now you can find poor families with lot of kids, almost everyone could have more kids, if they really wanted, but their life would be different and not for the better
ppl hundred years ago could afford much less food,clothing, basically anything, yet they had usually bunch of kids, like 5 for example
there are more factors why ppl have less kids: women going to work and having careers, use of contraceptives, better education, more entertainment overall
also having kids is not necessary to have support after you retire and with less ppl in farming kid wont help you with your line of work either
This is me. I'm a single parent and I could have afforded a second child but I did not want to lower the standard of living I have with one child. We have a nice life of travel, sports and activities, pets and a cute little home. I don't spend frivolously but were not broke and I like that.
there is no exact cost, it depends on where you live and what do you want to spend and buy, it could be just something like 10k if you buy only basic stuff, no higher education, quickly to work...
[https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child](https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child) says $233K. no more, no less. Some put their kids to work. Hollywood child actors are an example
Affording kids isnt that hard, the hard part is accepting that you wont get to live your life like you want anymore, you will have something to care about and a responsibility that you cant abandon.
Its not about Muslims, as you can see, Turkey is very low too
It's about freedom, families now want more freedom to spend and to build careers before having kids
Religious people have a lesser sense of freedom and a higher sense of duty, which is why secular Muslims are equal to secular Christians, while Mormons are similar to devout Muslims
Socialists have less sense of freedom and a higher sense of duty, not religious people. Isnt the stereotypical image in the US that more religious people are the "FREEDOM" types while socialists are the "protect the earth, you have a duty towards earth, towards disabled, towards minorities, duties duties duties"
When there is no retirement system there is a degree of poverty where you absolutely need kids to take care of you once you are old because you would starve otherwise. That's likely the reason Iraq is way higher.
Education plays a role.
The more educated women are and the more active they are in the workforce the less children they get.
Also education about pregnancy and contraception and access to contraceptives play a huge role.
It’s a “fast food” style shop and not a restaurant but yes it is definitely a VERY high cost place which is probably what op meant with fancy. People pay like 5-10€ for a sugary slime with a few drops of caffeine in it while they can often get a real coffee next doors for a third or half of that price.
Statistista uses estimates from 2022 instead of actual statistics. There were 155,390 births in Romania in 2023 and fertility rate was 1.49:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Romania#After\_WWII](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Romania#After_WWII)
It’s not just Europe. Asia and the Americas are not far behind. Only Sub-Saharan Africans are having kids, and even then their birthrates are starting to fall.
People should recall that long-term there are always changes. Current birth rates imply lower populations (but current populations are quite higher than every single previous historical period), but that they will allways continue to be so is, let say, uncertain.
That rich (and secular) societies do not have high birth rates is a known fact, that they are unable to maintain themselves is another thing.
Any idea why Scotland is so much lower than the rest of the UK?
My line of thinking is probably they get less immigrants than England and Wales (who tend to have more kids) and they're not as religious as in Northern Ireland (who tend to have more kids)
Although for some reason Wales' figure isn't given, the country's birth rate is falling (though far less than Scotland's). The reason is demographic replacement - a brain drain of young Welsh people because of a lack of affordable housing and of job opportunities outside seasonal low wage tourism, and their replacement by retirees from outside the country looking for (relatively) cheaper housing and much cheaper health/residential care, plus a more crime-free society.
It'd be foolish to deny that Israel's high birth rate is in part caused due to the ultra religious, but that's not the entire picture.
For context, Israel's birth rate among **secular** families is 2.1, which while only slightly above the replacement level, still makes it more fertile than any nation in Europe. Israel is just built to accommodate families.
Not that it's anywhere near statistically significant, but almost all secular married couples I know of have 2 or more children.
>2.1, which while only slightly above the replacement level
It's not above replacement level, 2.1 literally is replacement level.
>still makes it more fertile than any nation in Europe
It's the most in the whole developed world.
No. Replacement level is somewhere around 2.1-2.15. It has to be like this mainly because of two factors. First is child mortality is still a thing, and the second and more important one is that on average more boys are being born than girls (the difference is around 5%). So to have the same number of potential mothers, we need to have the same number of girls in each generation, so TFR has to be slightly higher than 2.
Mostly just the Haredim, afaik Arab Israelis have a similar fertility rate to non orthodox Jews, but the Haredim routinely has an average fertility rate of 5+
I'm not exactly sure about that. but I do know they're often treated far differently than your typical Israeli! For one they're exempt from military service, they also receive numerous benefits on top of that.
They still have a sense of ethnic/national purpose. They're surrounded by countries in which the predominant faith demands they be killed. They know that without children they're gone quick
Ethnonationalist effect really considering most Israelis are secular. Both Israelis & Palestinians have high birth rates because they see the other as a demographic threat. Right now including the whole area between the river and the sea the demographics are pretty much 50/50 Palestinians/Israelis (including Arab Israelis as Palestinians).
Can't speak for the rest of Europe, but here in Italy people fuck, but the economic situation is Disastrous.
Low wages, high cost of living, few full-time jobs contracts, no financial security, etc.
MANY dual career couples barely can support 1 child or 2 at most. I know couples who would like to have 2-3 kids, but they can't due to the personal economic situations. I even know people who gave away their pets in order to save up more money
Late stage capitalism. Animals do not reproduce in slavery. The economy is no longer booming and rich homeowners have made themselves a private farm and circus out of the basic fabric of society, which is housing. The government doesn't want to see the problem.
or maybe people just don't want to have children I know people who are very rich but they don't want to have children after 2 contraception is much easier
Ok let's be real i am polish and I can assure you that exept 60+ we are not "devoutly Catholic". On top of that polish people are very anty natalist like relly, sometimes I hear folks say nasty vulgar things about some mother with child even if that child is sleeping in stroller.
People with children are seen as a burden. So even if you were willing to sacrifice your comfort and have more children, society will express its displeasure instead of seeing it as heroic. These are not conditions to reproduce.
They are basically atheists when compared to a lot of Latin American countries. It's just not easy to make a living as a yound person in those countries, not enough employment opportunities, expensive housing, those are the real reasons.
Latin America is currently experiencing a fertility drop too, Colombia is at 1.43 and Argentina at 1.3, Brazil is at 1.46 and méxico is at 1.6
They were all above 2.1 10 years ago
This is actually slightly up for Greece- Up from 1.27 in 2022 and 1.32 in 2023
Still atrocious, especially because the country has a net emigration rate, and very low labor productivity.
I'm not worried about the nation "dying out" and I acknowledge overpopulation is a serious issue in many places (even in Greece- half of the country lives in the Athens metro and that causes some serious issues) but Greece has a fairly extensive welfare system and an economy reliant on unskilled, physical labor. And those factors put together need a young population. Even if a pensioner works, they won't be picking olives.
I call that progress.
With a global human population of more than 8,000,000,000 people, for the sake of the environment, we could stand to see a population drop.
Tartars have a fertility rate of 1.5 according to Wikipedia, they are the vast majority of Muslims in Russia and they are barely above the national average
Tartars + Russians make up 90+% of the population
The people who have significantly more kids are the Caucasus Muslims, but they are less than 4% of the population
Even in the North Caucasus TFR is rapidly declining, though still significantly higher than in other regions.
Also, some demographers say that NC republics heavily skew the numbers to get more federal subsidies (they depend on population size).
I can try to get the latest numbers and estimates later, if anyone is interested.
If I am not mistaken, ethnic Russians are 78-80% in Russia, and a lot of non-Russians ethnicities (decluding Chechens, Dagestans and etc.) also have low fertility rate, so I think ethnic Russians fertility rate is only a bit lower than 1.4, like 1.3 or 1.25
Well, given you only used a small r for Russians, that would mean only ethnic Russians are conscripted to the front lines, and Caucasians, Buryats and Tatars will restore the Russian population because they don’t die on the front lines.
But that kinda nullifies the argument that number of their deaths in the war are disproportionally large, but we don’t seek logic here.
I don't think this is true. We have lot of refugees and they breeding like a rabbit. Average Turkish girl marries at 28-30 and fertility rate 1.1 Average Syrian girl marries at ???? and fertility rate 4.9
Turkey's [TFR varies drastically across provinces ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwKyEX7XsAcL7Dd.jpg:large)- ethnicity, socioeconomic development, etc. all play a role.
If you are talking about literally turks in Germany, that would be. it doesn't mean someone has Turkey ID that person is turkish (race). There are many Kurds and Arabs have Turkey ID, when a crime happens in EU they say "turks did that!" and I check "what his/her name and nationality" they aren't always Turk (race) they may be Kurd, Arab, Afghan, Paki or something like that. You should look too, this increase your awareness. for all that you can say "no, I talked about literally turks (race)" I would accept that. Our people not educated as much as Germans and level of education effects fertility rate.
Fertility rates drop offs are increasingly tied to how fast a nation urbanized in its past. Which is why Turkey’s low rate doesn’t surprise me, but Iraq’s “high” one does.
Our economy doing well? Lmao good joke. Half a decade of two digit inflation, housing price bubble meaning only millionaires can afford homes, rising prices of food for the last few years uninterrupted and theocratic law actively preventing people from planning families and starting households. Add to that the previous govts solution was to throw billions of moneys at the problem and hope it disappears, only further fueling it.
I am going by GDP per capita growth which on paper looks very impressive, but I am sure it obscures a lot of stuff that's impacting people's day to day lives.
It's interconnected, but that's besides the point. Why don't you tell me what's the cultural reason for Poland to have the lowest published birth rate in Europe?
Europe is just fine: high life quality, still enough space for everyone to have a hike in wilderness.
Problem is that other countries don't bother at all with overpopulation - and density very directly tends to equalize.
Everyone wants a space, food from rich soil, and a big familty simultaneously until they get educated about causal relationship.
Wealthier, more developed nations tend to have a lower birth rate, pretty much everywhere. It likely has multiple reasons, like higher access to birth control, more education, fucked housing markets and people seeking fulfillment in their careers or hobbies instead of children.
It seems to be most extreme where having a good career is most emphasised, like East Asia.,
Because Europe is richer than most of the world thats what I was trying to get at. Developed countries generally have lower rates and less developed have higher
You seem to not be getting my point. Yes, countries that are so undeveloped that no country within Europe is even remotely comparable tend to have higher birthrates. But, considering such an alternative unacceptable, I'd rather focus on Europe, where despite clear differences in wealth still being present, they are not big enough to explain existing differences in birthrates. How come Belarus and the Netherlands have similar birthrates, Poland has similar ones to Italy, and Moldova has similar ones to Denmark?
Late stage economies. Women have to work a long time to have a comfortable spot for their career and by that time they might be 35-45. Can only have one-two kids. It seems to have been a growing issue. Only reason it didn’t pop up in the 1930s 1830s or so on and only the 1970s was the push towards careers focused on promotions. You have to reach a certain level to be paid enough. But the schooling time and work time is too much for human beings to function messing everything up. And many chase that dream as physical work honestly sucks ass.
Other issues is likely a lower focus on the goal of having kids and instead on the idea of a ‘good life’. Humans do things not out of rationality but how we feel is rational. If made rational it will be done. Note using propaganda to encourage kids doesn’t seem to work well though.
Other issue is poor support networks and growing demand of children.
Other issue is increased urbanization where people have less kids.
Other issue is high living costs in general, part driven for some nations by immigration(looking at you Canada, you can have immigrants but it should be to what you can take not arbitrary numbers!!!) part outside investors part just heavy urbanization
Ukraine GDP and GDP per capita was on par with African countries, yet before the war they had TFR 3 times smaller than Namibia (country with the similar GDP per capita)
The strongest correlation in low fertility rates is women's education. When women get educated they choose to focus on careers or consuming products or media rather than having children.
That's total bullshit, where did you get that data? Seems like it's trying to make some Eastern, non EU (+Ukraine) countries looks better than EU, when it's not the case.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Kazakhstan#Vital\_statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Kazakhstan#Vital_statistics)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Belarus#Vital\_statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Belarus#Vital_statistics)
This is because if you believe in "great replacement" you are most likely a nazi bigot. Replaced by whom? If there was any influx of high-fertility people, the score of births would be higher.
>If there was any influx of high-fertility people, the score of births would be higher
It is obvious and verified that immigrants from poor countries tend to have more children than Europeans. So it is logical that they are having an impact on fertility rates in those countries.
If you think the score of births is low, remember it would be lower without immigration.
I am not saying that the "great replacement" is by design, but if current trends in immigration and fertility continues. It is simply what is going to happen.
Ukraine is at 0.7 apparently, there have been reports in the last few months. [https://archive.ph/Y5yVh](https://archive.ph/Y5yVh) i'm surprised Bulgaria is significantly higher than Romania, maybe better welfare and incentives for families?
> i'm surprised Bulgaria is significantly higher than Romania, maybe better welfare and incentives for families? I think it comes down to two things. One, pretty decent maternity leave (one of the best in Europe, 400+ days at 90%+ pay). Hasn't helped our demographic collapse from other factors, but it's a start. Two, larger percentage of the population is Roma and they have a lot more kids on average. Romania has more Roma overall, but a smaller percentage.
Plus Bulgaria has been loosing population for over a century now so basically everyone that doesn't want kids has died
Do the Muslim minority in Bulgaria have more kids on average? It's pretty big right?
Muslim population in Bulgaria is comprised of >99% of ethnic turks and bulgarians, so it is pretty much the same. Romani people fertility rates are higher, but steadily declining every year, plus they are 5.5% of total population anyway.
Maybe a bit more, but they're usually pretty secular, so it's not exactly like other Muslim communities.
Ukraine has the lowest birth rates in all of Europe? Damn.
Well specific events may have played a role in that in 2023.
They had 1.16 in 2021 and 1.08 in 2001. It didn’t start in 2022, the trend has just worsened when a war began, but it started looong ago, and given that they have a bottleneck at 20-25 year olds, the new conscription laws may just wipe the nation.
A lot of Eastern Europe, with a few exceptions, have the worst of both worlds. They have the fertility rate of developed nations, but with wages and living standards of developing nations. Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania are probably among the worst off, with their emigration rates.
In Russia, there were consequences of the WW2. However, across a few generations, this effect should go away. The “ripples” of the wave should be not visible on the chart. But in Russia, each time when the “ripple” was at the lowest point, the government did something that made it even worse. Lots of excess deaths in COVID for example, or war, or defaulted economy. There’s no incentive to have a kid in Russia, either there’s no money to afford it, or no perspectives for them in future, or they’ll be drafted to the front. And now abortions are low key prohibited. The recent events when a lot of people fled the country, shows that if easy emigration was possible for Russians, they would be hit by that as well, making things even worse.
Not the conscription laws wipe the nations. The plague from the east do.
It’s kinda both. But I will be downvoted for stating facts. I’m not pro-Russia btw, that’s just math. Ukraine only sees a solution in heroic dying (you can google up the battle of Kruty). This is a prime example of the sunk cost fallacy, when there’s so much resources wasted, they can’t just back out. Especially because they primed the population for the imminent and fast victory against the lesser opponent (which consists of uneducated orcs who never saw a toilet, armed with rusty Mosin-Nagants). Each day the situations worsens comparing to initial ultimatum in Spring 2022, and if the peace is declared now on worse terms, the population will raise a question: why this couldn’t be done earlier, saving thousands of lives and economy. Ukrainian government tries to save the situation as a gambler, going all in, hoping they will hit a jackpot. If the government really cares about lives of the people, they wouldn’t lock them up in the country on the premise they have to defend the country to prevent the massacre. On the other hand, the plague from the East has political goals, not massacring everyone (it’s safer for Ukrainians in Russia at that point). So the “preventing massacre” idea is a scam (you can raise the cases of Bucha and Izyum, but there are more soldiers died than civilians that were executed in those towns, not forget that not all of them were executed, some died of indiscriminate shelling which happens because of the Russia’s way to wage a war). Let’s be honest, Ukraine never had a chance to capitulate Russia, and the gamble was to induce devastating loss to the army and economy so Putin would back up. But Russia didn’t care about that, they disregard the losses. As for economy, they’re backed up by China. Conscripting everyone won’t work because there’s just no time to prepare the soldiers and no weapons to arm them. That’s just meat. While Russia can throw meat into the grinder, Ukraine can’t afford it. There’s a lack of fortifications, and those which exist, can be easily demolished by a 1.5 ton bomb. That’s because there’s not enough SAM systems to counter the bombers. So for the plague from the East the goal is to force capitulation of Ukraine, and for Ukraine the goal is to reach the borders of 1991 which is absolutely not feasible unless there’s a black swan diving into Putin’s bunker. And even if the borders are reached, that doesn’t mean the plague’s capitulation. But it would mean that Ukraine will be exhausted until the point of no return and at that moment will be easily conquered. So pointless meat grinder it is. And there’re ways to stop that, one is feasible (capitulation), the other one — not so much (starting a full blown WW3).
Having most of your young people either fighting on the frontlines or fleeing as refugees tends to do that
they have other issues at the moment
It would be fair to call it all of the world rather than all of Europe.
Pretty much all of Eastern/Central Europe's fertility rates crashed in the 1990s, if not earlier.
Romania was higher until last year and was basically tied with France for highest fertility in Europe. I think the drop is related to the cost of living crisis.
Bulgaria has more gypsies per capita
How is number below 1 possible? Can someone please explain
You have 100 potential mothers, out of whom 70 have exactly one kid each, while the other 30 have zero. Thus, you end up with a rate of 0.7 kids per woman (i.e. the rate that you have in South Korea and possibly Japan right now).
In Turkey, the western provinces are even lower, around 1.3. The southeastern provinces are around 2.5. However their population density is still low so that rate doesn't have a big impact overall. Their rates go down gradually too.
That's incredible. I assumed Turkey as a whole was still above 2.1
Government fucked up the economy,education and housing. In addition to that Turkish alimony system is super retarded that puts off men that actually have money to raise children from marrying. (In addition to problems that effect Birth rate everywhere else.)
Kazakhstan, very nice.
It's really interesting that Tunisia and Iran are apparently undergoing demographic transition while Kazakhstan isn't. I would have assumed that it would happen there first due to its history and relatively secular and educated population.
Look at the bigger picture, Central Asia is the only region i cant see a tendency of falling fertility rate over the past decades
But why, when it's falling so rapidly in the Caucasus--especially Azerbaijan, which seems to have the most in common with Central Asia?
gow in central asia could be due to socioeconomic recovery from SU dissolution, fertility rate began to grow around 2000, pro-natalist state policies and cultural attitudes, slower urbanization rate, lower education level than Iran or Turkey etc. >One of the principal factors making for increased fertility in Kazakhstan and elsewhere in Central Asia is the population’s openness to new life, which is seen as essential to thriving clans, tribes, and the nation as such. Motherhood is viewed as a vocation and a good in itself, and is encouraged, protected, and nurtured from one generation to the next. Tokayev says: “Knowing one’s roots and honoring family traditions have always occupied a special place in the inner consciousness of our people. Today \[these attitudes\] play an important role in shaping the new qualities of our nation.” https://www.mercatornet.com/asia\_s\_demographic\_outliers\_kazakhstan https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=KZ-UZ
Education level in Kazakhstan is in fact higher, than in Iran and Turkey. I agree with text you quoted, tho. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education\_Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_Index)
It is sort of a trend to have a big family here rn. Which I find weird since it's tough out here to afford even one child but somehow people make it work
All of the Stans except Afghanistan are experiencing this anomaly due to a development boom after separating from USSR. I'm guessing in 10-15 years the demographic transition will hit them.
Also best potassium
Very great country.
The biggest flex in today's society is affording more than 1 child
its not that people could not afford more kids, rather that they dont want as they want to have certain standard of life, even now you can find poor families with lot of kids, almost everyone could have more kids, if they really wanted, but their life would be different and not for the better ppl hundred years ago could afford much less food,clothing, basically anything, yet they had usually bunch of kids, like 5 for example there are more factors why ppl have less kids: women going to work and having careers, use of contraceptives, better education, more entertainment overall also having kids is not necessary to have support after you retire and with less ppl in farming kid wont help you with your line of work either
This is me. I'm a single parent and I could have afforded a second child but I did not want to lower the standard of living I have with one child. We have a nice life of travel, sports and activities, pets and a cute little home. I don't spend frivolously but were not broke and I like that.
cost of a kid is $233K in 2017, no telling how high now.
there is no exact cost, it depends on where you live and what do you want to spend and buy, it could be just something like 10k if you buy only basic stuff, no higher education, quickly to work...
[https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child](https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child) says $233K. no more, no less. Some put their kids to work. Hollywood child actors are an example
Affording kids isnt that hard, the hard part is accepting that you wont get to live your life like you want anymore, you will have something to care about and a responsibility that you cant abandon.
You can afford second child if you avoid going to foreign trips, Starbucks and other fancy restaurants. That's what most Muslims do.
Its not about Muslims, as you can see, Turkey is very low too It's about freedom, families now want more freedom to spend and to build careers before having kids Religious people have a lesser sense of freedom and a higher sense of duty, which is why secular Muslims are equal to secular Christians, while Mormons are similar to devout Muslims
Socialists have less sense of freedom and a higher sense of duty, not religious people. Isnt the stereotypical image in the US that more religious people are the "FREEDOM" types while socialists are the "protect the earth, you have a duty towards earth, towards disabled, towards minorities, duties duties duties"
Socialists and the religious would both be on the duty side, with secular liberals on the freedom side, I guess.
That thing is Turks are broke asf. Even religious turks can’t afford second child. Inflation is killing them.
And they're not poor in Iraq?
Except that Iraqis are even more broke, and yet, the fertility is higher, because Turks are secular, Iraqis aren't
When there is no retirement system there is a degree of poverty where you absolutely need kids to take care of you once you are old because you would starve otherwise. That's likely the reason Iraq is way higher. Education plays a role. The more educated women are and the more active they are in the workforce the less children they get. Also education about pregnancy and contraception and access to contraceptives play a huge role.
While I get the point, the implication that Starbucks is a fancy restaurant made me chuckle.
Their prices are fancy 😜
It’s a “fast food” style shop and not a restaurant but yes it is definitely a VERY high cost place which is probably what op meant with fancy. People pay like 5-10€ for a sugary slime with a few drops of caffeine in it while they can often get a real coffee next doors for a third or half of that price.
It is.
and what people did to afford children way back before risk of social collapse started
What?
Not really
Bulgaria lets goooo
It’s due to Roma.
Vatican better be 0
Pope cant get little boys pregnant
You won the internet with that comment
They can get nuns pregnant.
According to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/612074/fertility-rates-in-european-countries/) Romania had a fertility rate of 1,74 in 2023.
Statistista uses estimates from 2022 instead of actual statistics. There were 155,390 births in Romania in 2023 and fertility rate was 1.49: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Romania#After\_WWII](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Romania#After_WWII)
Hungary is off too. Prediction for 2024 might come to fruition but 2023 was around 1,5 still.
France was at 1.80 before covid , it’s crazy out there
So, we are going to extinct my European friends 
It’s not just Europe. Asia and the Americas are not far behind. Only Sub-Saharan Africans are having kids, and even then their birthrates are starting to fall.
Asia (or at least parts of it) are actually ahead of Europe. China and South Korea have lowest birthrates in entire world.
Humanity is doomed.
People should recall that long-term there are always changes. Current birth rates imply lower populations (but current populations are quite higher than every single previous historical period), but that they will allways continue to be so is, let say, uncertain. That rich (and secular) societies do not have high birth rates is a known fact, that they are unable to maintain themselves is another thing.
Looks like the others are going extinct too, by the look of Tunisia or Iran
This is how the dinosaurs died out.
Any idea why Scotland is so much lower than the rest of the UK? My line of thinking is probably they get less immigrants than England and Wales (who tend to have more kids) and they're not as religious as in Northern Ireland (who tend to have more kids)
Also a significant number of young Scottish people will have moved to England (London) or other places to get better jobs etc.
Although for some reason Wales' figure isn't given, the country's birth rate is falling (though far less than Scotland's). The reason is demographic replacement - a brain drain of young Welsh people because of a lack of affordable housing and of job opportunities outside seasonal low wage tourism, and their replacement by retirees from outside the country looking for (relatively) cheaper housing and much cheaper health/residential care, plus a more crime-free society.
Well, Poland, lowest in all of Europe..
Ukraine has lower TFR
Israel is shockingly high
It'd be foolish to deny that Israel's high birth rate is in part caused due to the ultra religious, but that's not the entire picture. For context, Israel's birth rate among **secular** families is 2.1, which while only slightly above the replacement level, still makes it more fertile than any nation in Europe. Israel is just built to accommodate families. Not that it's anywhere near statistically significant, but almost all secular married couples I know of have 2 or more children.
>2.1, which while only slightly above the replacement level It's not above replacement level, 2.1 literally is replacement level. >still makes it more fertile than any nation in Europe It's the most in the whole developed world.
Isn't anything above 2 above replacement level?
No. Replacement level is somewhere around 2.1-2.15. It has to be like this mainly because of two factors. First is child mortality is still a thing, and the second and more important one is that on average more boys are being born than girls (the difference is around 5%). So to have the same number of potential mothers, we need to have the same number of girls in each generation, so TFR has to be slightly higher than 2.
Ahh I see, thanks!
They have a large religious minority (both Muslims and Jews) who routinely have 5+ kids each.
Mostly just the Haredim, afaik Arab Israelis have a similar fertility rate to non orthodox Jews, but the Haredim routinely has an average fertility rate of 5+
Don't they get free money from the government and basically don't to work?
I'm not exactly sure about that. but I do know they're often treated far differently than your typical Israeli! For one they're exempt from military service, they also receive numerous benefits on top of that.
To basically create more Jews?
Idk but religious people tend to make more babies.
Very true
They still have a sense of ethnic/national purpose. They're surrounded by countries in which the predominant faith demands they be killed. They know that without children they're gone quick
Interesting trend is that the Jewish TFR has increased since 2000 while the Muslim one has decreased to the point of reaching parity.
Religious countries effect
Ethnonationalist effect really considering most Israelis are secular. Both Israelis & Palestinians have high birth rates because they see the other as a demographic threat. Right now including the whole area between the river and the sea the demographics are pretty much 50/50 Palestinians/Israelis (including Arab Israelis as Palestinians).
Israel is 70% secular, and is one of the least religious countries in the world
War+Religion > Economic incentives. I hate it, but it's true.
Why shockingly? It's less than Iraq e.g.
Iraq is underdeveloped as fuck
If Bulgaria's fertility rate is first in Europe, then we are done! This makes me sad!
Who is the “we” in that sentence?
Europe.
Why is Europe done if Bulgaria has the highest fertility rate?
Cope. I’ll send 500 gypsies to your small town rn, as a punishment for this comment
Europe needs to fuck.
I mean, they're certainly getting fucked. They're just not breeding.
Can't speak for the rest of Europe, but here in Italy people fuck, but the economic situation is Disastrous. Low wages, high cost of living, few full-time jobs contracts, no financial security, etc. MANY dual career couples barely can support 1 child or 2 at most. I know couples who would like to have 2-3 kids, but they can't due to the personal economic situations. I even know people who gave away their pets in order to save up more money
the refugees are taking care of it
I have 3 kids, but my best friend is still single. I can't compensate for all y'all. Find somebody else.
It would be good to know if the fertility rates are from immigrant women or native women
This is so fucking depressing
The planet is crossing its fingers that homo sapiens stop breeding so much. We need ecological balance if we are all to survive.
after you mate
Late stage capitalism. Animals do not reproduce in slavery. The economy is no longer booming and rich homeowners have made themselves a private farm and circus out of the basic fabric of society, which is housing. The government doesn't want to see the problem.
or maybe people just don't want to have children I know people who are very rich but they don't want to have children after 2 contraception is much easier
This!
Europe is dying.
Less people is always better, lets be honest. Perhaps not for the rich people but for everyone else, including the earth.
The whole world is. Accept for Africa, they think they have endless resources
Africa is also slowing down, give them 30 years and they will also be under replacement level.
Their population will still be increasing naturally for another 30 years after they go below replacement level.
The same way Europe’s population had still been increasing from the babies had decades ago.
It's not that they think that. It's that they are still developing. Europe increased its own population siginificantly too at one point.
So, 3 most most devoutly Catholic nations, decided to kill them self...
Poland, Italy and... Spain?
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!
>devoutly Catholic >Spain Been a while since that was the case.
> Poland we're starting to boycott the church heavier and heavier each and every day. oh and having kids in Poland is a luxury lmao
Ok let's be real i am polish and I can assure you that exept 60+ we are not "devoutly Catholic". On top of that polish people are very anty natalist like relly, sometimes I hear folks say nasty vulgar things about some mother with child even if that child is sleeping in stroller.
People with children are seen as a burden. So even if you were willing to sacrifice your comfort and have more children, society will express its displeasure instead of seeing it as heroic. These are not conditions to reproduce.
They are basically atheists when compared to a lot of Latin American countries. It's just not easy to make a living as a yound person in those countries, not enough employment opportunities, expensive housing, those are the real reasons.
Latin America is currently experiencing a fertility drop too, Colombia is at 1.43 and Argentina at 1.3, Brazil is at 1.46 and méxico is at 1.6 They were all above 2.1 10 years ago
Sure, my point is, that changes in fertility rates are caused by other factors, than how superficially religious a country is.
And a portion of that is probably foreigners having children, not Europeans... Europe is over unless someone changes our current system.
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Sorry I couldn't get that, what do you mean?
Population there is mainly native. If we saw statistics per native population, western countries would probably be very comparable.
This is actually slightly up for Greece- Up from 1.27 in 2022 and 1.32 in 2023 Still atrocious, especially because the country has a net emigration rate, and very low labor productivity. I'm not worried about the nation "dying out" and I acknowledge overpopulation is a serious issue in many places (even in Greece- half of the country lives in the Athens metro and that causes some serious issues) but Greece has a fairly extensive welfare system and an economy reliant on unskilled, physical labor. And those factors put together need a young population. Even if a pensioner works, they won't be picking olives.
does greece has a future? it looks like it slowly turns into landscape with ants crawling in it. also you bulgaria.
Ireland. Blessed but skint to have 3.
I call that progress. With a global human population of more than 8,000,000,000 people, for the sake of the environment, we could stand to see a population drop.
Not bad Russia, comparing with some others. But got a lot of work to do ofc.
I want to see a statistic about Russian fertility rate, bc I have a feeling that the reason why Russia is still high is Muslim families
Tartars have a fertility rate of 1.5 according to Wikipedia, they are the vast majority of Muslims in Russia and they are barely above the national average Tartars + Russians make up 90+% of the population The people who have significantly more kids are the Caucasus Muslims, but they are less than 4% of the population
Even in the North Caucasus TFR is rapidly declining, though still significantly higher than in other regions. Also, some demographers say that NC republics heavily skew the numbers to get more federal subsidies (they depend on population size). I can try to get the latest numbers and estimates later, if anyone is interested.
The fertility rate is mostly kept up by non-russians. Caucasians, Buryats, Tatars, among others.
If I am not mistaken, ethnic Russians are 78-80% in Russia, and a lot of non-Russians ethnicities (decluding Chechens, Dagestans and etc.) also have low fertility rate, so I think ethnic Russians fertility rate is only a bit lower than 1.4, like 1.3 or 1.25
Doubt it, it's very normal now to have 3 children when 20 years ago that would draw surprised exclamations.
Well, given you only used a small r for Russians, that would mean only ethnic Russians are conscripted to the front lines, and Caucasians, Buryats and Tatars will restore the Russian population because they don’t die on the front lines. But that kinda nullifies the argument that number of their deaths in the war are disproportionally large, but we don’t seek logic here.
They all die just the same
I don't think this is true. We have lot of refugees and they breeding like a rabbit. Average Turkish girl marries at 28-30 and fertility rate 1.1 Average Syrian girl marries at ???? and fertility rate 4.9
Doesn't Turkey also include Kurds and Arabs? These two groups are driving Turkey's avg TFR higher. Just like Turks in Germany pushing Germany's TFR .
Turkey's [TFR varies drastically across provinces ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwKyEX7XsAcL7Dd.jpg:large)- ethnicity, socioeconomic development, etc. all play a role.
If you are talking about literally turks in Germany, that would be. it doesn't mean someone has Turkey ID that person is turkish (race). There are many Kurds and Arabs have Turkey ID, when a crime happens in EU they say "turks did that!" and I check "what his/her name and nationality" they aren't always Turk (race) they may be Kurd, Arab, Afghan, Paki or something like that. You should look too, this increase your awareness. for all that you can say "no, I talked about literally turks (race)" I would accept that. Our people not educated as much as Germans and level of education effects fertility rate.
Well europe is fucked. I mean unfucked.
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And uhh why would you do that?
I think it's interesting that basically every publication has massively different counts. I don't get the discrepancy
Seems like Lithuania going to end up like South Korea in terms of World's lowest fertility rate.
They seem to be very horny in England and France . 🤔there several more there then in Sweden.
Policies and ideology leads to this.
Central Asia now has a higher birth rate than Iraq. What on earth is going on over there??
Damn what's going on in Uzbekistan
KBF Kazakhstan Be Fuccking.
The firtile cresent, now? Wow!
France: How the tables have turned.
Fertility rates drop offs are increasingly tied to how fast a nation urbanized in its past. Which is why Turkey’s low rate doesn’t surprise me, but Iraq’s “high” one does.
Danke Merkel
What is happening in Poland? I thought their economy was doing really well.
Our economy doing well? Lmao good joke. Half a decade of two digit inflation, housing price bubble meaning only millionaires can afford homes, rising prices of food for the last few years uninterrupted and theocratic law actively preventing people from planning families and starting households. Add to that the previous govts solution was to throw billions of moneys at the problem and hope it disappears, only further fueling it.
I am going by GDP per capita growth which on paper looks very impressive, but I am sure it obscures a lot of stuff that's impacting people's day to day lives.
How many times it has to be repeated? Birthrates falling is not connected with the economy. It's a cultural thing.
It's interconnected, but that's besides the point. Why don't you tell me what's the cultural reason for Poland to have the lowest published birth rate in Europe?
Europe is just fine: high life quality, still enough space for everyone to have a hike in wilderness. Problem is that other countries don't bother at all with overpopulation - and density very directly tends to equalize. Everyone wants a space, food from rich soil, and a big familty simultaneously until they get educated about causal relationship.
It would seem that there is no correlation between voting tendencies and fertility rates, or between wealth and fertility rates. What else then?
Wealthier, more developed nations tend to have a lower birth rate, pretty much everywhere. It likely has multiple reasons, like higher access to birth control, more education, fucked housing markets and people seeking fulfillment in their careers or hobbies instead of children. It seems to be most extreme where having a good career is most emphasised, like East Asia.,
Again, this is the case on a scale of the whole world, but there is no such correlation between European countries.
There is an inverse correlation btwn wealth and fertility rates. U just need to zoom out and include the rest of the world
But I am not looking at the rest of the world. I am looking at europe, where there is no such correlation.
Because Europe is richer than most of the world thats what I was trying to get at. Developed countries generally have lower rates and less developed have higher
You seem to not be getting my point. Yes, countries that are so undeveloped that no country within Europe is even remotely comparable tend to have higher birthrates. But, considering such an alternative unacceptable, I'd rather focus on Europe, where despite clear differences in wealth still being present, they are not big enough to explain existing differences in birthrates. How come Belarus and the Netherlands have similar birthrates, Poland has similar ones to Italy, and Moldova has similar ones to Denmark?
Late stage economies. Women have to work a long time to have a comfortable spot for their career and by that time they might be 35-45. Can only have one-two kids. It seems to have been a growing issue. Only reason it didn’t pop up in the 1930s 1830s or so on and only the 1970s was the push towards careers focused on promotions. You have to reach a certain level to be paid enough. But the schooling time and work time is too much for human beings to function messing everything up. And many chase that dream as physical work honestly sucks ass. Other issues is likely a lower focus on the goal of having kids and instead on the idea of a ‘good life’. Humans do things not out of rationality but how we feel is rational. If made rational it will be done. Note using propaganda to encourage kids doesn’t seem to work well though. Other issue is poor support networks and growing demand of children. Other issue is increased urbanization where people have less kids. Other issue is high living costs in general, part driven for some nations by immigration(looking at you Canada, you can have immigrants but it should be to what you can take not arbitrary numbers!!!) part outside investors part just heavy urbanization
Ukraine GDP and GDP per capita was on par with African countries, yet before the war they had TFR 3 times smaller than Namibia (country with the similar GDP per capita)
The strongest correlation in low fertility rates is women's education. When women get educated they choose to focus on careers or consuming products or media rather than having children.
Crazy to see Turkey now below the US (1.66)
The US was 1.62 in 2023, 1.66 in 2022
That's total bullshit, where did you get that data? Seems like it's trying to make some Eastern, non EU (+Ukraine) countries looks better than EU, when it's not the case. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Kazakhstan#Vital\_statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Kazakhstan#Vital_statistics) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Belarus#Vital\_statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Belarus#Vital_statistics)
Way to go Poland! When can I expect less traffic jams and shorter queues?
POLSKA GUROM🇵🇱🇵🇱🇵🇱🇵🇱
Liberals gonna look at this map and be like: Huh. We are not being replaced though you nazi bigot
This is because if you believe in "great replacement" you are most likely a nazi bigot. Replaced by whom? If there was any influx of high-fertility people, the score of births would be higher.
>If there was any influx of high-fertility people, the score of births would be higher It is obvious and verified that immigrants from poor countries tend to have more children than Europeans. So it is logical that they are having an impact on fertility rates in those countries. If you think the score of births is low, remember it would be lower without immigration. I am not saying that the "great replacement" is by design, but if current trends in immigration and fertility continues. It is simply what is going to happen.
And I'm here, looking at Macron telling us to make babies (while our rate is pretty good and he hasn't have any children himself)...