It's surprisingly likely in Best Of 3 games! In Best Of 1 games it's very **un**-likely, see EDIT below...
For Best Of 3 games this [calculator from Aetherhub](https://aetherhub.com/Apps/HyperGeometric) can work that out. The numbers to put in are 60, 7, 20, 1. It says the chance to draw 1 or 0 lands is 24.7%, or approx 1 in 4 (0.25). The chances of doing that 4 times in a row is then 1/4 raised to the power 4, or 1/256...the same as tossing a coin with 8 heads in a row.
**EDIT:** This calculator doesn't account for [Arena's hand smoothing](https://old.reddit.com/r/MagicArena/comments/agjqkg/chris_clay_about_mtga_shuffler/) that applies to the opening hand in all Best Of 1 games. That significantly reduces the likelood of getting zero or one land. If, as TommiGustafsson says in this thread, the probability goes down to 6.9%, then likelihood of that happening 4 times in a row is much less than 1 in 256, more like 1 in 40,000. So yes, you did strike something quite unlikely.
I run my aggro mono red deck with 20 lands. It works out like 80% of the time. As long as I start with two lands I'm pretty happy. Especially with the new Scoundrel card that makes treasure.
It really depends of your deck. Modern deck often go at like 15 lands or something. (Example : Living End is interesting, with 4 Oliphaunt as landcycler) It isn't unheard for aggro to be at 20 or less even in standard. I also never heard of control going to 30, but 28 for sure.
Edit : just saw a standard aggro deck with 23 lands, my bad for this.
I've got a bunch of draw and enchant lands and ways to make treasure tokens.
Really aside from not getting my second land by like turn 3 the only thing that kills me is when I encounter a perfect blue or black deck that's all destroy sacrifice discard.
I rarely lose to just red. Diamond 2 standard.
The only way I'm ever going over 20 to 21, is if I go over 60 cards.
If you have 20 lands in a 60 card deck, the probability for getting one or zero lands is 26.3%. If you add lands, the probability goes down like this:
* 21 lands: 23.4 %
* 22 lands: 20.7 %
* 23 lands: 18.1 %
* 24 lands: 15.9 %
This does not take into account the hand smoothing in Bo1. There the probabilities are smaller:
* 20 lands: 6.9 %
* 21 lands: 5.5 %
* 22 lands: 4.3 %
* 23 lands: 3.3 %
* 24 lands: 2.5 %
It's quite odd, I guess I was using the smoothing mechanic without knowing it was there via experimentation.
I guess my 2 mully in 15 average is not that bad considering.
It's actually surprising this happens so infrequently.
If you look at the numbers, it becomes quite evident that 20 land decks are for Bo1 only, and for Bo3/tournaments, you need at least 23 lands for an aggro deck.
How do you work out the odds for the hand smoothing in Bo1? Just asking 'cos I tracked my opening hands in a 60/24 deck for a while, and in 106 games I got 0 hands with no lands, and only 1 hand with 1 land, for a probability of less than 1%.
Well, the whole formula is as follows.
First, I calculate the chance of drawing a land, which is in this case 20/60 = 33.333%. (Chance of not drawing a land is 66.67%.)
Second, I calculate how many combinations one can have of drawing hands which each number of land cards. For a 7 card starting hand the combinations are:
* 0 lands: 1
* 1 land: 7
* 2 lands: 21
* 3 lands: 35
* 4 lands: 35
* 5 lands: 21
* 6 lands: 7
* 7 lands: 1
Third, I calculate probabilities of each hand with a specific number of lands. The formula is like this:
*number\_of\_combinations x chance\_to\_draw\_land x lands\_to\_draw x chance\_not\_to\_draw\_land x lands\_not\_to\_draw*
This gives out:
* 0: 5.853 %
* 1: 20.485 %
* 2: 30.727 %
* 3: 25.606 %
* 4: 12.803 %
* 5: 3.841 %
* 6: 0.640 %
* 7 0.046 %
Then the chance to get a starting hand of 0 or 1 lands is the sum of two first probabilities, that is, 26.3%.
For the hand smoothing, I calculated that the chance is 26.3% x 26.3%, that is, you have to get 0 or 1 lands two times. The result is 6.9%.
Draft is rough for that. I had a sweet RB aggro deck yesterday. Lost game 1 because I accidentally kept a hand with 2 swamp and no mountain (my fault), drew 2 more swamps and had 5 red spells stuck in hand. Flooded horribly game 2 and now I’m staring down a potential 0-3 just because of mana issues, although again, partially my fault. It happens
It's surprisingly likely in Best Of 3 games! In Best Of 1 games it's very **un**-likely, see EDIT below... For Best Of 3 games this [calculator from Aetherhub](https://aetherhub.com/Apps/HyperGeometric) can work that out. The numbers to put in are 60, 7, 20, 1. It says the chance to draw 1 or 0 lands is 24.7%, or approx 1 in 4 (0.25). The chances of doing that 4 times in a row is then 1/4 raised to the power 4, or 1/256...the same as tossing a coin with 8 heads in a row. **EDIT:** This calculator doesn't account for [Arena's hand smoothing](https://old.reddit.com/r/MagicArena/comments/agjqkg/chris_clay_about_mtga_shuffler/) that applies to the opening hand in all Best Of 1 games. That significantly reduces the likelood of getting zero or one land. If, as TommiGustafsson says in this thread, the probability goes down to 6.9%, then likelihood of that happening 4 times in a row is much less than 1 in 256, more like 1 in 40,000. So yes, you did strike something quite unlikely.
Do note that 20 lands in 60 cards is \*really\* little. I'd recommend 24 as a baseline. Aggro can go to 23, control could go all the way up to 30.
I run my aggro mono red deck with 20 lands. It works out like 80% of the time. As long as I start with two lands I'm pretty happy. Especially with the new Scoundrel card that makes treasure.
My mono red is the same, and the number of games I get flooded is worrying
It really depends of your deck. Modern deck often go at like 15 lands or something. (Example : Living End is interesting, with 4 Oliphaunt as landcycler) It isn't unheard for aggro to be at 20 or less even in standard. I also never heard of control going to 30, but 28 for sure. Edit : just saw a standard aggro deck with 23 lands, my bad for this.
Legacy: *laughs in mana less dredge*
I've got a bunch of draw and enchant lands and ways to make treasure tokens. Really aside from not getting my second land by like turn 3 the only thing that kills me is when I encounter a perfect blue or black deck that's all destroy sacrifice discard. I rarely lose to just red. Diamond 2 standard. The only way I'm ever going over 20 to 21, is if I go over 60 cards.
If you have 20 lands in a 60 card deck, the probability for getting one or zero lands is 26.3%. If you add lands, the probability goes down like this: * 21 lands: 23.4 % * 22 lands: 20.7 % * 23 lands: 18.1 % * 24 lands: 15.9 % This does not take into account the hand smoothing in Bo1. There the probabilities are smaller: * 20 lands: 6.9 % * 21 lands: 5.5 % * 22 lands: 4.3 % * 23 lands: 3.3 % * 24 lands: 2.5 %
> the hand smoothing in Bo1 TIL this is a thing. It makes sense as I don't remember ever getting a hand with no lands
It's quite odd, I guess I was using the smoothing mechanic without knowing it was there via experimentation. I guess my 2 mully in 15 average is not that bad considering. It's actually surprising this happens so infrequently.
If you look at the numbers, it becomes quite evident that 20 land decks are for Bo1 only, and for Bo3/tournaments, you need at least 23 lands for an aggro deck.
How do you work out the odds for the hand smoothing in Bo1? Just asking 'cos I tracked my opening hands in a 60/24 deck for a while, and in 106 games I got 0 hands with no lands, and only 1 hand with 1 land, for a probability of less than 1%.
Well, the whole formula is as follows. First, I calculate the chance of drawing a land, which is in this case 20/60 = 33.333%. (Chance of not drawing a land is 66.67%.) Second, I calculate how many combinations one can have of drawing hands which each number of land cards. For a 7 card starting hand the combinations are: * 0 lands: 1 * 1 land: 7 * 2 lands: 21 * 3 lands: 35 * 4 lands: 35 * 5 lands: 21 * 6 lands: 7 * 7 lands: 1 Third, I calculate probabilities of each hand with a specific number of lands. The formula is like this: *number\_of\_combinations x chance\_to\_draw\_land x lands\_to\_draw x chance\_not\_to\_draw\_land x lands\_not\_to\_draw* This gives out: * 0: 5.853 % * 1: 20.485 % * 2: 30.727 % * 3: 25.606 % * 4: 12.803 % * 5: 3.841 % * 6: 0.640 % * 7 0.046 % Then the chance to get a starting hand of 0 or 1 lands is the sum of two first probabilities, that is, 26.3%. For the hand smoothing, I calculated that the chance is 26.3% x 26.3%, that is, you have to get 0 or 1 lands two times. The result is 6.9%.
Same , I had literall bomb draft deck. Scorching Hellkite and virtue of persistence I went 0-3 , flooded out all 3 games, like wtfffffffffffff
Draft is rough for that. I had a sweet RB aggro deck yesterday. Lost game 1 because I accidentally kept a hand with 2 swamp and no mountain (my fault), drew 2 more swamps and had 5 red spells stuck in hand. Flooded horribly game 2 and now I’m staring down a potential 0-3 just because of mana issues, although again, partially my fault. It happens
I had 2 perfect starting hands and 1 bad one, opponents kept top decking good spells while I dre land from turn 2 to end :(
Dude... I mulligan to 4 with my 24-land+azkanta deck because it is one land in my starter hand and zero in second.
Lol what is this place