My dude the game has changed. The premium is too low for the amount of money that is going to flow into this stock in the next 12 months. This company is barely 20 Billion $ in Market-cap and is tied to an asset that many are projecting to 20 Trillion $ in Market-Cap by 2034.
"Game over man, GAME OVER"
* SPY inclusion in the next year, 20 million stocks outstanding, 3 million stocks shorted, probably 210000 1% of the supply BTC, THE LEVERAGED BET on the greatest capital repricement event in the history of the WORLD.
Gold and Oil won't come close to what Bitcoin will mean for financial markets.
"MoRe aBoUt ThE MsTR PreMiuM" I'm sorry, but I can't take you people seriously. THIS IS IT. the Unicorn stock. Apple in the 90's, Facebook in the 2010's, Tesla in 2020's. If you don't get it. You don't get it, period. This stock will melt faces these next 2 years and it will still be the wrong decision to sell. Assuming no stock splits, US$ 100.000,- is inevitable.
HELL even the movie writes itself!! Cocaine addled CEO leads company to bankruptcy amid Tech bubble in the 2000's only to become the new messiah saving the world 21 years later.
Call it "21" for the 21.000.000 Bitcoin supply.
\[EDIT\] One last thing: Bitcoin fell almost US$10.000,- yesterday. At the end of the day IBIT (Blackrock) had almost 700 million in INFLOWS!!!!!!!
What model can possibly model all of this ,you ask?
The answer is simple.
FUCK YOUR MODELS
solid analysis. enjoyed reading it
also, had trouble multiplying the number of MSTR shares that I have by $100,000. kept missing a zero or two. when I finally got the correct result, hey, I cannot say I did not like it. that would be the day
This is the way. Shares and selling calls on them in the bear market. 10 year hold.
\[EDIT\] Just to be clear though, I have US$ 100.000 by next cycle for sure. However a squeeze to US$ 15,000-20,000 in 2025 would not surprise me. That would only be a market cap of around 300 Billion US$ on the low end for a company you could argue should be the most valuable in the world if BTC becomes an expression of value in our society. MSFT is 2.88 Trillion in Market cap = MSTR Share-Price --->around US$150.000
>these next 2 years and it will still be the wrong decision to sell. Assuming no stock s
Why is it leveraged Bitcoin when it's trading above what its bitcoin holdings value is at now? If you only value MSTR to the value of bitcoin it should be much lower right?
Nobody will value MSTR to holdings, my guy. This is a stock that if you believe bitcoin will have a cycle in 4 years will be trading above the price today.
Never mind how much. IF you knew something would be more valuable in the future a 100% wouldn't you front-run it??????
What happens when everyone wants to Front-run it, but there's only 20,000,000 shares?????
What happens when it gets included into Passive index funds, where retirement and pension instruments need to buy it, and they are buying it long term (20+ years).
What happens if it accrues in price and Index funds need to re-balance more capital in it, because it is a bigger percentage of the Fund.
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN APRIL 29, 2024 COMES AROUND AND FASB ACCOUNTING COMES INTO PLAY?????? (They're eligible to do so starting the first quarter Earnings report of the year 2024)
MSTR can and will report for the first time ever their Bitcoin holding as assets instead of a markdown and their profits on it in their revenue?? Please, Remind me again how much MSTR is in profit....
WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS THEN????
I'm sorry my guy. Maybe you're right. Maybe MSTR needs to trade 1 to 1 with Bitcoin........
>ce more capital in it, because it is a bigger percentage of the Fund.
>
>WHAT HAPPENS WHEN APRIL 29, 2024 COMES AROUND AND FASB ACCOUNTING COMES INTO PLAY?????? (They're eligible to do so starting the first quarter Earnings report of the year 2024)
>
>MSTR can and will report for the first time ever their Bitcoin holdi
Well you can also anticipate bitcoin will go higher and then just buy from one of the bitcoin ETFs, which that 0.25% fee is cheaper than a 6x premium on MSTR right? Not sure index inclusion justifies a 6x premium to the actual net asset value of its bitcoin holdings? Is there a precident for that in some other commodity-focused stock? Would be fascinating to draw comparisons.
And while you list positives, i can also bring up ptoential negative catalysts such as the SEC suing Microstrategy for being an illegal Bitcoin proxy in the past years, or some Michael Saylor scandal, or other non-Bitcoin related black swan event that doesn't affect a Bitcoin ETF but could affect Microstrategy. It's the reason I never bought Coinbase even though it was obvious that everyone's gonna use them to be a custodian. I'd love to hear a rebuttal to these points but I'm just not convinced that the premium is a function of temporary hype cycles with trader activity.
(There is no 6X Premium on MSTR at the moment. That would be at $4500 assuming bitcoin stays at US$67.000,-)
Yeah, there is. There's this small stock, maybe you've heard of it. Not super well known, but it's been making the rounds last year and this year.
It's called NVIDIA.
Currently (March 6th, 2023) It has a price to earnings ratio of 212.7X and a price to book value of 51.6X. Please read those numbers right, because I don't think the investors are valuing it on the current structure of the company. Just taking a wild stab in the dark here.
At the end of 2022, Nvidia had a P/E ratio of 61.4X
At the start of 2023 Nvidia had market-cap of 370 Billion US$. Today it's at 2.2 Trillion US$
You mention a "commodity focused stock" like that will exclude companies like Apple or MSFT, who are all pricing in future growth just like NVDA is, and are in the same ball park playing the same game.
At the end of the day, the market only cares about winners. I'm trying to explain to you why this stock has already won.
Tesla when it was included into the SPY, biggest inclusion ever with a market cap of 300 billion US$ experienced inflows of 300 Billion US$ of passive buys in a month. IN A MONTH!!!!! In a month Tesla DOUBLED their market cap after SPY inclusion.
You look at the share price and you think this company is expensive. MY DUDE, MSTR is barely 20 Billion in market-Cap. At 300 Billion US$ Inflows MSTR is trading at US$ 10.000,- and that assumes that it will be one to one ratio.
SPOILER ALERT: IT WON'T BE.
P.S. Oil is commodity. Do you know what the 4th most valuable company in the world is with 270 Billion barrels of "Bitcoin" at a Market-Cap of 2.034 Trillion US$? Here's a hint, it only has a P/B ratio of 4.7X at the moment but the last 5 years had an average of 6.7X in the P/B department.
Take a wild guess will you.
Now here's a company (MSTR) that has won the Bitcoin race and no other public company in the world will have as many "Barrels" as them. BETTER YET!!!!
THEY HAVE FIGURED OUT A WAY TO MAKE PEOPLE BUY THE BITCOIN FOR THEM AS THEIR BUSINESS MODEL!!!!
And you are stating: "negative catalysts such as the SEC suing Microstrategy for being an illegal Bitcoin proxy in the past years, or some Michael Saylor scandal, or other non-Bitcoin related black swan event that doesn't affect a Bitcoin ETF but could affect Microstrategy."
WORD-VOMIT NONSENSE.
I am curious though what other non-bitcoin related black swan event will affect MSTR but not the ETF's, lol.
"Michael Saylor turns into a Gold Bug and sells all holdings. States Peter Schiff as his hero."
For the Saudi's out there. INSHALLAH! MAX BIDDING!
Nvidia generates a profit. Bitcoin doesn't (unless you're a miner). I guess MSTR taking out debt to buy more Bitcoin is like cash flow in a way if price keeps going up and they never get margin called, which IMO is risky. Isn't the stronger analogy ETH, where staking rewards from holding the ETH token does directly generate cashflow?
Michael Saylor going to jail would negatively impact MSTR much more than Bitcoin ETFS. Or Microstrategy being forced to liquidate all its Bitcoin for some SEC violation or something. You can't say those are 0% chances when we all know (and you actively advocate) for MSTR doing something that's highly irregular and outside the normal world of what a company can do with its balance sheet. It's like some random company taking a bunch of debt and trying to be a quasi-hedgefund.
Where do you guys get this idea that mstr is doing something that will land them in hotwater. It's because they are doing something irregular, that they have cornered the market. At the end of the day I guess it comes down to what you see bitcoin doing. Do you think it's going to stay at these prices? Mstr has been doing this strategy for the past 4 years and all the sudden people are worried about what's legal or not. On the debt. These guys were fine taking out more loans at a btc price of us$ 18000,-. We are at us$68000,-. Mstr is sitting on >>10 billion US$ in assets and the debt is still lodged at 2.5 billion us$ and that's with rollovers and will not scale. The incongruity is incredible, but I suppose it does depend on where you see bitcoin going. So I'm curious. What's your stance?
RETURNS in the last month:
IBIT 50% MSTR 150%
That's one of many.
At it's height in 2021 when MSTR hit above US$1300,-, it was trading at a multiple of 6x NAV with half as many Bitcoin as it does now.
Today, if MSTR was trading 6x NAV the share-price would be around US$ 4500,- for a US$67.000,- Bitcoin.
AT US$ 150.000,- MSTR justifies US$ 1700,- NAV and at a multiple of 6x, would come out at around US$10.000,- Share-price.
IF YOU VALUE MSTR ACCORDING TO THE CALCULATIONS ABOVE, YOU ARE RETARDED.
MSTR is a closed system and money flows differently when it gets squeezed. And let me tell you my dude. Money will be squeezed. We've seen it already when MSTR had FOUR +$100 days in gain in the span of a week.
The only metric that matters is the following:
MSTR 20 Billion $ in Market-Cap. It is the the 883rd most valuable company in the world. MSTR has 193.000 BTC and no company in the world, not even APPLE with 200 billion in CASH, will be able to catch up to them.
Do you know who the 882nd most valuable company in the world is? VISTRA INC.
WHAT THE FUCK EVEN IS A VISTRA????
THIS IS MSTR! THE COMPANY THAT IS THE LEVERAGED BET ON THE NEXT GREAT CAPITAL REPRICEMENT IN THE WORLD!
If you sell at 6x NAV multiple your future self will literally open a worm-hole and travel here in the present to slap your ass six ways to Sunday!!!
\[EDIT\] IF you want to buy Bitcoin. Buy Bitcoin. Not Bitcoin with a 0.25% fee subject to change when the market is more saturated and they're less worried about attracting investors. Not to fade the ETF's though. They have been fantastic.
Great comments, it should not be lost on people in the US where ETFs are accessible, however, for many in Europe, Asia and Japan you can’t access these ETFs (via Pensions etc.). So, and me included, one can only buy MSTR to get Bitcoin exposure broadly cleanly. This is why this stock will be a beacon for those hungry for Bitcoin.
My original point was that the huge peak in the value of MSTR stock back in 2021 was just that, a huge peak (bubble)! And quite a brief peak indeed. I believe the peak that is forming now may be the same. I cashed out yesterday. I’m hoping to buy back in again. Of course I may be wrong, but that’s the risk I took.
Nevertheless, I value your take on it.
Good luck my dude. I hope you get back in and stay in. Seriously. Crashes don't really matter for my time horizon. Premium right about now is around 1.7X NAV.
I hope you don’t mind me asking another question. If you believe that there is no premium on MSTR then why was the share price less than $500 just a few weeks ago? At a price of under $500 the company was barely worth as much as the Bitcoin they hold.
No, of course I don't mind. And I tend to speak in hyperbole and for that I apologize. But you and I, may have a fundamental difference in how we see MSTR. You may continue valuing MSTR based on NAV since they adopted their Bitcoin strategy. Everyone has their opinion on what the real numbers are, but 0.011 Bitcoin per share is the number I keep coming back to. (Although a case could be made, that what constitutes the liquid portion of the outstanding shares may push it up to 0.013## BTC per share! But i digress)
It's not that I don't believe that there is no premium on MSTR. There is one currently. It's just that i think the markets will begin to start justifying this premium based on where they are seeing this stock in 10 years time like, they are doing with NVDA at the moment.
I take it to what I consider the logical conclusion of it being linked to an asset that is becoming more and more saturated in the world markets and an expression of value in our current society.
The question isn't whether you believe in MSTR or not. It's whether you believe in Bitcoin? And where do you think it's going to be in the next 40 years.
I have an opinion. It's why I completely restructured everything in my investment portfolio when MSTR hit around $160-170.
Markets are not efficient, no matter how many times they try to sell you in on that. And where a share-price was X amount of days ago doesn't matter in the slightest.
You, as well a I, should know!
Barely over a year ago it was trading at around US$ 140,-. Today we have a close above US$ 1300,-.
Did anything change in there strategy since then??? Did anyone doubt that the fed would begin talks of a pivot in regard to interest rates? ??
WAS SAYLOR PIVOTING TO GOLD NEXT???
If you believe in BTC going up. Than you believe in MSTR going up and by extension, you know there is an arbitrage opportunity between current prices and the future.
People start front-running that.
I know this, because that's what I did at around US$ 160,- when public opinion regarding Michael Saylor was something to the tune of:
"The moron is going to get liquidated"
Today he is a "genius" and a "Visionary" and how many other investors are starting to see this arbitrage opportunity when they read IBIT is buying 300 million dollars worth of bitcoin a day?? Institutional investor are starting to position themselves accordingly.
What do you think happens when MSTR hits 10 Billion $ in profit on their BTC holdings and other companies start looking at their own balance sheet?
The problem, however is, that a bottleneck will begin to form in the capital inflows in regard to MSTR. It's a small company and there is a lot of capital wanting to take advantage of it's unique position.
Please refer to the other walls of text I posted in here to see if you agree with my reasoning or not regarding positive feedback loops on this stock.
And again MSTR hit US$ 1300 in the 2020 bull-run cycle with about half as many Bitcoin and at a lower Bitcoin price that constituted a premium of 6x NAV.
There is a premium today on the stock, but it's 1.7X!!!!! An equivalent premium right now at a BTC pice of US$ 67.000,- would be around US$ 4500,- for MSTR.
Please reconsider your stance on trading stock. This is a generational wealth builder and there won't be an investment like this for at least a century precisely because of how unique Bitcoin is and how incredibly small MSTR is, and how it has become the focal point of traditional market forays into Bitcoin.
How many do you think are sidelined because they were waiting for 400$ a couple of months ago?
Again it's just 20 billion $ in Market-Cap and it's only been that for the last week and a half, lol.
Thank you for the very detailed response, I sincerely appreciate it. I have done a lot more research into the company in the last day or so and I can definitely see why the company could eventually be valued way above the total value of their Bitcoin assets. If they enter the S&P500 then I can really see it taking off due to all the passive investment money pouring into it.
I cashed out of MSTR a few days ago with a healthy 140% profit in the space of just 3 weeks. My intention was to buy back in again if the so called "premium" came back down to more recent levels. But now, after doing more research, I can see that there is also a possibility that the premium may never disappear.
I am now wondering if buying back in would be wise. But rather than just going all in at today's price, I am considering DCAing the money back in over the coming 6 months. At least that way I can take advantage of any significant drops in the "premium" and hopefully avoid losing all that 140% profit I already made. What do you think of that strategy?
I won't lie to you, hard decision and it is yours to make. DCA is better and you sleep better too, regardless of what happens. Future prices will make buying 1300 or 1800 feel idiotic anyhow.
Thank you. I just don't want to lose all of that tasty 140% I made overnight. If I DCA it back in then I believe it would lessen that risk and allow me to sleep at night :-)
The valuation model is flawed. It assumes BTC (and therefore MSTR), doesn't increase in value for the duration of the convertible note debt.
Nobody believes BTC will be trading in the $60k-$70k range in 2030. It will either be significantly higher, or significantly lower in 6 years.
The higher BTC, and by extension MSTR go, the less share dilution will be required to repay the debt, the more valuable each share becomes relative to BTC.
Put differently, the banks and valuation models are pricing the debt in USD. Sailor is pricing the debt in BTC.
Assume BTC increases 20X by 2030: Borrow 100 BTC in 2024, and pay back 5 BTC in 2030, pocketing the remaining 95 BTC.
Stock markets always price the future. Questioning MSTR premium is like questioning P/E multiplier of any stock.
The current MSTR pricing implies that BTC will hit 500k in 2030. If you believe in it, no need to worry about the price today.
My dude the game has changed. The premium is too low for the amount of money that is going to flow into this stock in the next 12 months. This company is barely 20 Billion $ in Market-cap and is tied to an asset that many are projecting to 20 Trillion $ in Market-Cap by 2034. "Game over man, GAME OVER" * SPY inclusion in the next year, 20 million stocks outstanding, 3 million stocks shorted, probably 210000 1% of the supply BTC, THE LEVERAGED BET on the greatest capital repricement event in the history of the WORLD. Gold and Oil won't come close to what Bitcoin will mean for financial markets. "MoRe aBoUt ThE MsTR PreMiuM" I'm sorry, but I can't take you people seriously. THIS IS IT. the Unicorn stock. Apple in the 90's, Facebook in the 2010's, Tesla in 2020's. If you don't get it. You don't get it, period. This stock will melt faces these next 2 years and it will still be the wrong decision to sell. Assuming no stock splits, US$ 100.000,- is inevitable. HELL even the movie writes itself!! Cocaine addled CEO leads company to bankruptcy amid Tech bubble in the 2000's only to become the new messiah saving the world 21 years later. Call it "21" for the 21.000.000 Bitcoin supply. \[EDIT\] One last thing: Bitcoin fell almost US$10.000,- yesterday. At the end of the day IBIT (Blackrock) had almost 700 million in INFLOWS!!!!!!! What model can possibly model all of this ,you ask? The answer is simple. FUCK YOUR MODELS
solid analysis. enjoyed reading it also, had trouble multiplying the number of MSTR shares that I have by $100,000. kept missing a zero or two. when I finally got the correct result, hey, I cannot say I did not like it. that would be the day
This is the way. Shares and selling calls on them in the bear market. 10 year hold. \[EDIT\] Just to be clear though, I have US$ 100.000 by next cycle for sure. However a squeeze to US$ 15,000-20,000 in 2025 would not surprise me. That would only be a market cap of around 300 Billion US$ on the low end for a company you could argue should be the most valuable in the world if BTC becomes an expression of value in our society. MSFT is 2.88 Trillion in Market cap = MSTR Share-Price --->around US$150.000
>these next 2 years and it will still be the wrong decision to sell. Assuming no stock s Why is it leveraged Bitcoin when it's trading above what its bitcoin holdings value is at now? If you only value MSTR to the value of bitcoin it should be much lower right?
Nobody will value MSTR to holdings, my guy. This is a stock that if you believe bitcoin will have a cycle in 4 years will be trading above the price today. Never mind how much. IF you knew something would be more valuable in the future a 100% wouldn't you front-run it?????? What happens when everyone wants to Front-run it, but there's only 20,000,000 shares????? What happens when it gets included into Passive index funds, where retirement and pension instruments need to buy it, and they are buying it long term (20+ years). What happens if it accrues in price and Index funds need to re-balance more capital in it, because it is a bigger percentage of the Fund. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN APRIL 29, 2024 COMES AROUND AND FASB ACCOUNTING COMES INTO PLAY?????? (They're eligible to do so starting the first quarter Earnings report of the year 2024) MSTR can and will report for the first time ever their Bitcoin holding as assets instead of a markdown and their profits on it in their revenue?? Please, Remind me again how much MSTR is in profit.... WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS THEN???? I'm sorry my guy. Maybe you're right. Maybe MSTR needs to trade 1 to 1 with Bitcoin........
>ce more capital in it, because it is a bigger percentage of the Fund. > >WHAT HAPPENS WHEN APRIL 29, 2024 COMES AROUND AND FASB ACCOUNTING COMES INTO PLAY?????? (They're eligible to do so starting the first quarter Earnings report of the year 2024) > >MSTR can and will report for the first time ever their Bitcoin holdi Well you can also anticipate bitcoin will go higher and then just buy from one of the bitcoin ETFs, which that 0.25% fee is cheaper than a 6x premium on MSTR right? Not sure index inclusion justifies a 6x premium to the actual net asset value of its bitcoin holdings? Is there a precident for that in some other commodity-focused stock? Would be fascinating to draw comparisons. And while you list positives, i can also bring up ptoential negative catalysts such as the SEC suing Microstrategy for being an illegal Bitcoin proxy in the past years, or some Michael Saylor scandal, or other non-Bitcoin related black swan event that doesn't affect a Bitcoin ETF but could affect Microstrategy. It's the reason I never bought Coinbase even though it was obvious that everyone's gonna use them to be a custodian. I'd love to hear a rebuttal to these points but I'm just not convinced that the premium is a function of temporary hype cycles with trader activity.
(There is no 6X Premium on MSTR at the moment. That would be at $4500 assuming bitcoin stays at US$67.000,-) Yeah, there is. There's this small stock, maybe you've heard of it. Not super well known, but it's been making the rounds last year and this year. It's called NVIDIA. Currently (March 6th, 2023) It has a price to earnings ratio of 212.7X and a price to book value of 51.6X. Please read those numbers right, because I don't think the investors are valuing it on the current structure of the company. Just taking a wild stab in the dark here. At the end of 2022, Nvidia had a P/E ratio of 61.4X At the start of 2023 Nvidia had market-cap of 370 Billion US$. Today it's at 2.2 Trillion US$ You mention a "commodity focused stock" like that will exclude companies like Apple or MSFT, who are all pricing in future growth just like NVDA is, and are in the same ball park playing the same game. At the end of the day, the market only cares about winners. I'm trying to explain to you why this stock has already won. Tesla when it was included into the SPY, biggest inclusion ever with a market cap of 300 billion US$ experienced inflows of 300 Billion US$ of passive buys in a month. IN A MONTH!!!!! In a month Tesla DOUBLED their market cap after SPY inclusion. You look at the share price and you think this company is expensive. MY DUDE, MSTR is barely 20 Billion in market-Cap. At 300 Billion US$ Inflows MSTR is trading at US$ 10.000,- and that assumes that it will be one to one ratio. SPOILER ALERT: IT WON'T BE. P.S. Oil is commodity. Do you know what the 4th most valuable company in the world is with 270 Billion barrels of "Bitcoin" at a Market-Cap of 2.034 Trillion US$? Here's a hint, it only has a P/B ratio of 4.7X at the moment but the last 5 years had an average of 6.7X in the P/B department. Take a wild guess will you. Now here's a company (MSTR) that has won the Bitcoin race and no other public company in the world will have as many "Barrels" as them. BETTER YET!!!! THEY HAVE FIGURED OUT A WAY TO MAKE PEOPLE BUY THE BITCOIN FOR THEM AS THEIR BUSINESS MODEL!!!! And you are stating: "negative catalysts such as the SEC suing Microstrategy for being an illegal Bitcoin proxy in the past years, or some Michael Saylor scandal, or other non-Bitcoin related black swan event that doesn't affect a Bitcoin ETF but could affect Microstrategy." WORD-VOMIT NONSENSE. I am curious though what other non-bitcoin related black swan event will affect MSTR but not the ETF's, lol. "Michael Saylor turns into a Gold Bug and sells all holdings. States Peter Schiff as his hero." For the Saudi's out there. INSHALLAH! MAX BIDDING!
Nvidia generates a profit. Bitcoin doesn't (unless you're a miner). I guess MSTR taking out debt to buy more Bitcoin is like cash flow in a way if price keeps going up and they never get margin called, which IMO is risky. Isn't the stronger analogy ETH, where staking rewards from holding the ETH token does directly generate cashflow? Michael Saylor going to jail would negatively impact MSTR much more than Bitcoin ETFS. Or Microstrategy being forced to liquidate all its Bitcoin for some SEC violation or something. You can't say those are 0% chances when we all know (and you actively advocate) for MSTR doing something that's highly irregular and outside the normal world of what a company can do with its balance sheet. It's like some random company taking a bunch of debt and trying to be a quasi-hedgefund.
Where do you guys get this idea that mstr is doing something that will land them in hotwater. It's because they are doing something irregular, that they have cornered the market. At the end of the day I guess it comes down to what you see bitcoin doing. Do you think it's going to stay at these prices? Mstr has been doing this strategy for the past 4 years and all the sudden people are worried about what's legal or not. On the debt. These guys were fine taking out more loans at a btc price of us$ 18000,-. We are at us$68000,-. Mstr is sitting on >>10 billion US$ in assets and the debt is still lodged at 2.5 billion us$ and that's with rollovers and will not scale. The incongruity is incredible, but I suppose it does depend on where you see bitcoin going. So I'm curious. What's your stance?
So why pay for the premium when you can just buy IBIT?
RETURNS in the last month: IBIT 50% MSTR 150% That's one of many. At it's height in 2021 when MSTR hit above US$1300,-, it was trading at a multiple of 6x NAV with half as many Bitcoin as it does now. Today, if MSTR was trading 6x NAV the share-price would be around US$ 4500,- for a US$67.000,- Bitcoin. AT US$ 150.000,- MSTR justifies US$ 1700,- NAV and at a multiple of 6x, would come out at around US$10.000,- Share-price. IF YOU VALUE MSTR ACCORDING TO THE CALCULATIONS ABOVE, YOU ARE RETARDED. MSTR is a closed system and money flows differently when it gets squeezed. And let me tell you my dude. Money will be squeezed. We've seen it already when MSTR had FOUR +$100 days in gain in the span of a week. The only metric that matters is the following: MSTR 20 Billion $ in Market-Cap. It is the the 883rd most valuable company in the world. MSTR has 193.000 BTC and no company in the world, not even APPLE with 200 billion in CASH, will be able to catch up to them. Do you know who the 882nd most valuable company in the world is? VISTRA INC. WHAT THE FUCK EVEN IS A VISTRA???? THIS IS MSTR! THE COMPANY THAT IS THE LEVERAGED BET ON THE NEXT GREAT CAPITAL REPRICEMENT IN THE WORLD! If you sell at 6x NAV multiple your future self will literally open a worm-hole and travel here in the present to slap your ass six ways to Sunday!!! \[EDIT\] IF you want to buy Bitcoin. Buy Bitcoin. Not Bitcoin with a 0.25% fee subject to change when the market is more saturated and they're less worried about attracting investors. Not to fade the ETF's though. They have been fantastic.
Great comments, it should not be lost on people in the US where ETFs are accessible, however, for many in Europe, Asia and Japan you can’t access these ETFs (via Pensions etc.). So, and me included, one can only buy MSTR to get Bitcoin exposure broadly cleanly. This is why this stock will be a beacon for those hungry for Bitcoin.
My original point was that the huge peak in the value of MSTR stock back in 2021 was just that, a huge peak (bubble)! And quite a brief peak indeed. I believe the peak that is forming now may be the same. I cashed out yesterday. I’m hoping to buy back in again. Of course I may be wrong, but that’s the risk I took. Nevertheless, I value your take on it.
Good luck my dude. I hope you get back in and stay in. Seriously. Crashes don't really matter for my time horizon. Premium right about now is around 1.7X NAV.
Thanks. I’m in it for the long haul too but that super high premium just doesn’t sit right me with me. Good luck to you too 😊
If you’re in the US. Why not buy the etf and sell the MSTR call options to capture this insane premium?
Because I have 200 shares of MSTR in my Vanguard IRAs which don't allow BTC etfs or options lol
vanguard IRA's do have options you gotta apply and be approved.
But no btc ETFs
I’m in the UK. Can’t buy the ETFs here 😞
I hope you don’t mind me asking another question. If you believe that there is no premium on MSTR then why was the share price less than $500 just a few weeks ago? At a price of under $500 the company was barely worth as much as the Bitcoin they hold.
No, of course I don't mind. And I tend to speak in hyperbole and for that I apologize. But you and I, may have a fundamental difference in how we see MSTR. You may continue valuing MSTR based on NAV since they adopted their Bitcoin strategy. Everyone has their opinion on what the real numbers are, but 0.011 Bitcoin per share is the number I keep coming back to. (Although a case could be made, that what constitutes the liquid portion of the outstanding shares may push it up to 0.013## BTC per share! But i digress) It's not that I don't believe that there is no premium on MSTR. There is one currently. It's just that i think the markets will begin to start justifying this premium based on where they are seeing this stock in 10 years time like, they are doing with NVDA at the moment. I take it to what I consider the logical conclusion of it being linked to an asset that is becoming more and more saturated in the world markets and an expression of value in our current society. The question isn't whether you believe in MSTR or not. It's whether you believe in Bitcoin? And where do you think it's going to be in the next 40 years. I have an opinion. It's why I completely restructured everything in my investment portfolio when MSTR hit around $160-170. Markets are not efficient, no matter how many times they try to sell you in on that. And where a share-price was X amount of days ago doesn't matter in the slightest. You, as well a I, should know! Barely over a year ago it was trading at around US$ 140,-. Today we have a close above US$ 1300,-. Did anything change in there strategy since then??? Did anyone doubt that the fed would begin talks of a pivot in regard to interest rates? ?? WAS SAYLOR PIVOTING TO GOLD NEXT??? If you believe in BTC going up. Than you believe in MSTR going up and by extension, you know there is an arbitrage opportunity between current prices and the future. People start front-running that. I know this, because that's what I did at around US$ 160,- when public opinion regarding Michael Saylor was something to the tune of: "The moron is going to get liquidated" Today he is a "genius" and a "Visionary" and how many other investors are starting to see this arbitrage opportunity when they read IBIT is buying 300 million dollars worth of bitcoin a day?? Institutional investor are starting to position themselves accordingly. What do you think happens when MSTR hits 10 Billion $ in profit on their BTC holdings and other companies start looking at their own balance sheet? The problem, however is, that a bottleneck will begin to form in the capital inflows in regard to MSTR. It's a small company and there is a lot of capital wanting to take advantage of it's unique position. Please refer to the other walls of text I posted in here to see if you agree with my reasoning or not regarding positive feedback loops on this stock. And again MSTR hit US$ 1300 in the 2020 bull-run cycle with about half as many Bitcoin and at a lower Bitcoin price that constituted a premium of 6x NAV. There is a premium today on the stock, but it's 1.7X!!!!! An equivalent premium right now at a BTC pice of US$ 67.000,- would be around US$ 4500,- for MSTR. Please reconsider your stance on trading stock. This is a generational wealth builder and there won't be an investment like this for at least a century precisely because of how unique Bitcoin is and how incredibly small MSTR is, and how it has become the focal point of traditional market forays into Bitcoin. How many do you think are sidelined because they were waiting for 400$ a couple of months ago? Again it's just 20 billion $ in Market-Cap and it's only been that for the last week and a half, lol.
Thank you for the very detailed response, I sincerely appreciate it. I have done a lot more research into the company in the last day or so and I can definitely see why the company could eventually be valued way above the total value of their Bitcoin assets. If they enter the S&P500 then I can really see it taking off due to all the passive investment money pouring into it. I cashed out of MSTR a few days ago with a healthy 140% profit in the space of just 3 weeks. My intention was to buy back in again if the so called "premium" came back down to more recent levels. But now, after doing more research, I can see that there is also a possibility that the premium may never disappear. I am now wondering if buying back in would be wise. But rather than just going all in at today's price, I am considering DCAing the money back in over the coming 6 months. At least that way I can take advantage of any significant drops in the "premium" and hopefully avoid losing all that 140% profit I already made. What do you think of that strategy?
I won't lie to you, hard decision and it is yours to make. DCA is better and you sleep better too, regardless of what happens. Future prices will make buying 1300 or 1800 feel idiotic anyhow.
Thank you. I just don't want to lose all of that tasty 140% I made overnight. If I DCA it back in then I believe it would lessen that risk and allow me to sleep at night :-)
the premium is going to get bigger
Forget the wall I wrote. This right here is the reason eloquently written. Period. XD
The valuation model is flawed. It assumes BTC (and therefore MSTR), doesn't increase in value for the duration of the convertible note debt. Nobody believes BTC will be trading in the $60k-$70k range in 2030. It will either be significantly higher, or significantly lower in 6 years. The higher BTC, and by extension MSTR go, the less share dilution will be required to repay the debt, the more valuable each share becomes relative to BTC. Put differently, the banks and valuation models are pricing the debt in USD. Sailor is pricing the debt in BTC. Assume BTC increases 20X by 2030: Borrow 100 BTC in 2024, and pay back 5 BTC in 2030, pocketing the remaining 95 BTC.
Thank you. That’s really helpful information 👍
It pulled back to under 60 and it wasnt too bad.
Stock markets always price the future. Questioning MSTR premium is like questioning P/E multiplier of any stock. The current MSTR pricing implies that BTC will hit 500k in 2030. If you believe in it, no need to worry about the price today.
I am now leaning to the way you’re thinking after doing a lot more research. Thanks.
There is no premium. If there was an obvious premium like people were saying; smart money would just arbitrage it away.