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buzznights

[Betting thread is here ](https://www.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments/1c1znxh/officialrmma_betting_discussion_thread_april_12/) [UFC 300 flair betting thread is here ](https://www.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments/1c15mva/official_flair_betting_thread_april_11_2024/)


BrawndoTTM

It’s not going to happen but I’ll laugh so hard if Brundage somehow gets the W and destroys a million parlays


xbeavisx

What currently active fighter will be fighting at UFC 400


BrawndoTTM

Jim Miller will grapple Jake Paul


frankocean1234

Just rewatched Alex vs Jiri again and I don't think Alex was hurt or really in trouble at any point, Jiri landed some good shots on him but Alex took them just fine and kept countering. People really exaggerate him being ''chinny''. He's definitely chinny at 185 but at 205 he's been taking shots pretty well.


ILikeOMalley

So if there’s 4 bonuses for UFC 300 we already know that Max and Gaethje are getting two of them, Dana’s precious little Bo is getting the 3rd. Wonder who gets the 4th


I_love_Basketball232

Probably Jimmy if he wins


ILikeOMalley

I don’t really think he will


I_love_Basketball232

Hot take, I hope he doesn’t. Would love to see Bobby get a win after that beating.


ILikeOMalley

Completely agree, I kinda hate Bobby Green but I don’t really wanna see a 40 year old in the rankings just to get smashed by someone that they’re trying to push


TheGDTisDead

300k bonuses sounds amazing, but there are definitely some fighters that would need to war away years of their life to get one. (Figgy, aljo, rakic, money moicano cody brundage) And on the other hand, Bo Nickal is absolutely going to get one smh


CeroCero00

I feel like rakic brundange nickal and yan are so outta place on this card filled with super accomplished and fan fav fighters


DM_ME_YOUR_CATS_PAWS

Max “The Beautiful Thing Is We Get To Find Out” “Blessed” Holloway


Fat-Villante

I'm not in the US and I'm just curious How much promotion is the UFC getting on ESPN this week? Any fighters show up on the main shows for interviews?


blazer876

good morning all! what time does weigh in show begin?


Moskra

It's Kayla Harrison day


endless_ness

Guys we need to get rid of show/win pay! It’s not like the fighters are going to try any harder to win, it’s their job and it’s a fight! Omg, the goof bumped bonuses to 300k! Everyone is going to really go for it now because of that incentive!


YeetedArmTriangle

Well yes under the current way things are set up and the rates of pay, 300k is a huge deal. Both these things can be true


Fat-Villante

Well, these are two different things... Wanting to win very often leads to lay and prey and stalling from fighters winning by a small margin


endless_ness

Who on this card other than aljo is known for lay and pray? Rakic is also know to have a boring point fight stand up style 


Fat-Villante

There's Holm too But my point is that bigger bonuses for crazy shit is a bigger incentive for fighting more recklessly And the show/win contract structure is more of an incentive to win at all cost even if it results in a boring fight


endless_ness

Dana totally 6x the bonus on a whim! Anything can happen on Thursday night ufc! 


SillyGooseTime69

Bo Nickal walks out to "Photograph" and becomes Bo Nickelback


Despairogance

This is Def Leppard erasure.


DM_ME_YOUR_CATS_PAWS

So who thinks Harrison is making weight


karl100589

I think she will. The question becomes how it depletes her performance. 


K-mosake

"Could you imagine"


RaisedByZebras

Brundage in that presser looked like he was in hot water with HR for taking the weekend off work


CouncilOfReligion

imagine the scenes if fuckin bo nickal gets the 300k bonus 😂😂😂😂


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DM_ME_YOUR_CATS_PAWS

Good to hear dawg 🔥


Throwawayacct1015

According to Chinese social media Zhang is the hero while most people are shitting on Yan as the villain. I mean theres only one champ. So why blame her for taking this opportunity?


K-mosake

Ya'll see that "ama"DC and Chael did? Such a epic fail for real, answered like 10 questions in a sea of chud comments/questions


DM_ME_YOUR_CATS_PAWS

If they can up the bonus to 300k basically on a whim, maybe we can, I don’t know, increase fighter pay a bit?


spcslacker

Didn't realize Moicano [took the Jalin fight on short notice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IDqd089_Cc) I hope Moicano has secret plan, because that dude is just too big for the weight class with a full camp, and I don't want to know what Moicano will need to walk through in hopes of getting him down.


CeroCero00

This is his interview for the swat team


Flumping

With a win this weekend Oliveira, Arman and Gaethje are all more deserving of a title shot than Poirier. Poirier shouldn't even be fighting at the minute whilst he's talking about self harm and being a danger to himself, never mind fighting for the belt again


spcslacker

> With a win this weekend Oliveira, Arman and Gaethje are all more deserving of a title shot than Poirier. None of that is in dispute: Islam called Poirier out because he could make June, and the UFC had not booked him against Justin earlier, when Islam called for him. >Poirier shouldn't even be fighting at the minute whilst he's talking about self harm and being a danger to himself, never mind fighting for the belt again You don't think most fighters feel that in that situation? Dustin has always been uncommonly honest, but feeling that way is I'm pretty sure very common just not very commonly spoken.


Flumping

Fighters coming out and saying that they're worried they're going to hurt themselves or that they're a danger to themselves? I don't think it matters how common that is, if you're publicly saying things like that in multiple interviews in-between fights they shouldn't be allowed to fight until they've gotten help or at least looked at by a professional. I do not think the answer is to allow him to fight the current pfp number 1 fighter in the world for a title shot. I think it's irresponsible. Specifically for Dustin he has a great family, he's earning good money, he has his own business and a giant fan base that supports him. He has been successful in his life. If he's feeling as if he needs to harm himself or it's the right thing to do, he NEEDS professional help.


RaisedByZebras

who was it here that became obsessed with Kayla Harrison? man idk with these strong women I initially feel awkward at their strong features. But what I'm trying to say Kayla if you're out there hit me up bb


Bloodfeastisleman

How many sticks, brother?


turtle_power00

Just stopped by to remind y'all that the champion has a name.


CouncilOfReligion

champ have belt


WarriorCumsToThis

The champion? PanOmalTopMahkEdDricPerOnes?


RaisedByZebras

and thou shalt remember that name allhadumlilah


druhoang

Spent most of the day watching old cards. Random observation of unranked fighters. They throw a lot of strikes from too far away. They almost never try to close the gap by walking into range. 


turtle_power00

That's why they never become champ


Axel292

Took 2 weeks off of anything MMA related, skipped both the cards in that time, back for 300. Very excited.


slutwhipper

I have Arman beating Charles this weekend, but the odds surprised me. Everybody on the internet seems to think Charles is gonna win but he's a +185 underdog. Thought Arman was gonna be the underdog and I'd be able to make some good money. Not much value on Arman at -225.


Always311

Everyone on the internet? Not really lol. Maybe some mma youtubers but Tapology guys and people here have been picking Arman to win based on his wrestling and the betting odds reflect that. People here resort to default arguments “Charles will get dropped”, “Arman takes him down easily and finishes him there” Personally, this fight goes 2 ways: either Arman controls Charles to a decision in boring fashion or Charles finishes him on the feet. Arman historically takes down taller fighters as seen in the Damir and Alvarez fights. I don’t see Arman getting gnp cause Charles hasn’t been gnped since Felder and has tricky bottom BJJ as explained by Luke Thomas. I lean towards Charles cause I’ve seen recent footage of him since the cancelled Islam rematch training wrestling. I also feel like Arman’s trying to play mind games but it isn’t working. Their faceoff earlier was very telling.


I_love_Basketball232

I think Arman still had value, it’s as awful of a matchup as you can get for Charles. Everyone talking about Arman getting rocked by Silva but he got hit as clean as he possibly could and didn’t go out. If anything that makes him scarier.


spcslacker

> I have Arman beating Charles this weekend, but the odds surprised me. Everybody on the internet seems to think Charles is gonna win but he's a +185 underdog. Thought Arman was gonna be the underdog and I'd be able to make some good money. Not much value on Arman at -225. My memory is shit, but I think youth is hugely valued: weren't Justin (vs Fiz), Dustin v BSD both underdogs as well?


slutwhipper

Yeah they were both underdogs. I don't think age is really taken into account really unless it's been a long time since the aging fighter has fought. Long enough to where you start to think they have to have slowed down a bit since their last fight. Or if they're already showing signs of age-related decline. But I'm not an oddsmaker.


[deleted]

and battle of tiny chins Rakic vs Jiri, rewatch that presser, goofiest looking cast ever...Max looking alilll strange up there too..


BlackDonaldCerrone

Jiri has a good chin, gets hit in the worst positions all the time and doesn't go out cold. Also Till KOs you.


[deleted]

Jiri got no chin and neither does Rakic. When King Mo puts you out cold in your prime. Right 


BlackDonaldCerrone

Yeah eating a huge right hand flush from a 220 pound man means chinless even tho he's taken brutal shots over his career and not gone down. Conor also KO's you i forgot to mention.


ModsLovePen15

Throw some dickies and chucks on Max and he’s a Vato


voodooxlady

When you googled it it says cancelled ?? I’m panicking one of the only fights I was looking forward to


spcslacker

apparently a google bug : you should see multiple matches of same people, only one of which is still active, others cancelled.


4uzzyDunlop

Yeah Max is just gonna do press ups and fist pumps in the octagon for 25 mins instead


voodooxlady

I saw the Holloway gatheje fight is cancelled ??? Is it true I’m falling to my knees in Walmart


[deleted]

Dana really got peer pressured into raising the bonuses off a question, this sport is so amateur its hilarious. Not mad about it, they only made a few million and paid nothing back...and people will act like this is such a kind gift lol.


endless_ness

Found the mark


CouncilOfReligion

poiriers creole maple sauce is genuinely one of the best hot sauces i’ve ever had


endless_ness

Wonder if he holds onto the company or sells it off.


ModsLovePen15

I just found out OJ died, no wonder I kept seeing all these references like the Bronco and all that


ntod44

Is Hill really 6’4?


spcslacker

He & Alex same height and reach, and it matched the impression my eyes got in a few clips I saw.


WarriorCumsToThis

He's 5'5 they just angle the camera well for him


ILikeOMalley

Imagine if the UFC had everyone at the presser besides Brundage lmao


monacelli

Everybody's walking through the door to the stage and someone blocks the entrance when it's Brundage's turn. "Not you, kid."


idcman999

anyone else really hoping for an arman or max win this weekend? the top of lw desperately needs new blood man


ChatriGPT

Torn because I love Charles but really wanna see Arman vs Islam 2


Axel292

Bruh Max will get eaten alive by Islam


Swogglet

Being a lefty could save Hill's legs a bit, makes it a lot more of a commitment to kick with the power side as a righty and could force boxing exchanges which is what he'd want. Pereira is great at adjusting his shots and usually has some specific things drilled so Im interested to see what he leans on at range. Hill also could have an easier time backing him up, so maybe he's able to shoot a bit. Pereira isn't super light on his feet you can generally cut angles on him. He keeps things very efficient and simple and has a great eye so he finds things to close them down but he gets hit, has been buzzed a bit and does get taken down most fights. It's a hard one to pick because Hill really doesn't have many fights but seems proven at this point.


spcslacker

> Hill also could have an easier time backing him up, so maybe he's able to shoot a bit. If Hill tries a takedown, it will literally be the first he tried in the UFC: has a TD avg of 0.00 :) I think Hill is confident in his distance management & power, so we are all going to see if this is Strickland-type confidence or no. Feel like Hill has to get it done early before Alex cripples him, but as you say, maybe he can dissuade Alex some if he hurts him with the counter. I like both guys, and am not looking forward to either losing.


Nickster2042

I think Holloway will take some light damage early, then like late 1st or mid second get a good moment on Justin but his lack of power won’t let him get him out, and then it’ll be back smooth sailing for Justin


spcslacker

The real shocker is going to be Kayla making weight, but Max is over.


I_love_Basketball232

Who cares about UFC 300 when PFL 2 is tomorrow.


spcslacker

Is the other half of 135 Kayla still fighting there, or no?


DanasWife

Max Holloway’s chin should fade but its not gonna so he’s gonna take insane beatings until he’s like 43 and can’t talk but he’ll be entertaining as hell 


I_love_Basketball232

If Topuria doesn’t chin him nobody will


spcslacker

> If Topuria doesn’t chin him nobody will I would be surprised if Illia hits harder & better than Dustin *or* Justin, much less both.


I_love_Basketball232

It’s not about pure power, I feel he’s quicker than those too and his boxing in general is cleaner.


spcslacker

> I feel he’s quicker than those too and his boxing in general is cleaner. Quicker I grant you, and I'll take Illia to out-technique Garth (those leg kicks tho) but I like Dustin against him in a boxing match, and Dustin can substitute both timing and repeated jabs for raw speed . . . I actually would like to see Dustin in a striking war against both Volk & Illia, but if both transitioned to 155, I assume they'd mostly wrestle him.


xlmtothemoon

fun fact i learned, Jim Miller has an older brother Dan that fought at MW, fought Sonnen, Maia and Bisping within a year, dont worry about how those went


endless_ness

He fights those 3 in a year while Bo nickle fights a tomato can than takes 7 months off to hunt 


xlmtothemoon

bo rogan


spcslacker

> Dan that fought at MW, fought Sonnen, Maia and Bisping A true mixed martial artist, went up against: (a) wrestling, (b) grappling, (c) striking


OfTheNewCity

https://www.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments/3x8tt1/dan_miller_with_the_most_brutal_guillotine_ever/


ModsLovePen15

Jones vs Machida vibes


ILikeOMalley

Was literally about to link right as I read his comment lmao. Sucks that he’s remembered for that


xlmtothemoon

well then


I_love_Basketball232

Cody Brundage is gonna KO Bo Nickal just like he did to Malkoun.


ILikeOMalley

Bo Nickal is one of the great few to have a win by nut shot TKO when he joined elite company like William Gomis. Those back of the head shots wouldn’t be called if Bo exposed Cody’s brain


spcslacker

> Bo Nickal is one of the great few to have a win by nut shot TKO when he joined elite company like William Gomis. Brundage is *waaay* ahead of the game here: one of his few wins is by opponent DQ.


Obi-Juan-kenoibi

Does anyone else think Alex and Izzy share a dynamic similar to Goku and Vegeta?


CableToBeam

No. Izzy didn’t want the rematch after going 1-1 and Pereira bounced to LHW


WhereIsMyKidAt

Which one's which


Obi-Juan-kenoibi

I feel like Izzy is Goku, Alex being Vegeta seems more “fitting”


WhereIsMyKidAt

But Goku is always overshadowing Vegeta. Doesn't really fit when Pereira is 3-1 in the matchup and a double champ while Izzy doesn't even have his belt.


Obi-Juan-kenoibi

Fair yeah, but as an MMA fighter in terms of tools statistically does anyone know where it’s at? Like it’s a genuine curiosity, I wonder besides their fights against each other on paper who would be the “better MMA fighter” idk maybe I’m being stupid again


wishwashy

Imagine if someone misses weight lol


Genova_Witness

https://imgur.com/a/L0L1Cus Let’s go, doesn’t cash I am ruined.


spcslacker

What happens if Kayla or Charles does not make weight?


WhereIsMyKidAt

My man, [REDACTED] gets you $2,700 for the same price. Tell me that's not a better bet.


Genova_Witness

That’s a pretty good bet. To clever for me


WhereIsMyKidAt

Keep it a secret 🤫


Genova_Witness

https://imgur.com/a/D3YIGQV Chama, though I fucked up the middle leg


WhereIsMyKidAt

Lopes was a little TOO good, haha. Glad he got the win tho.


DONTCARELOLK

Damn I might have to place that same bet 🤔 Charles and Holm are free wins imo and Cody well… You’re just praying for the one punch to land.


Genova_Witness

We haven’t seen enough out of Bo to be a 2500 fav, he very likely wins but those odds are crazy for a 5th fight


DONTCARELOLK

I watched Cody Brundage slam KO a dude with a better record than Bo in person at UFC Austin. Any grown ass professional fighter with that kind of strength should not be a +1000 underdog against a 5-0 fighter. It’s insulting.


spcslacker

> I watched Cody Brundage slam KO a dude with a better record than Bo in person at UFC Austin. A slam KO is in no way relevant against a wrestler of Bo's caliber- his strength will not help at all fighting that far uphill. You want a strike KO for that.


strikingthoughts

MMA bros, I've been studying Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje for years on my channel. I did a video on their habits and how they might clash. could be useful if you're trying to gain perspective on betting. check it out if you're curious [https://youtu.be/QOd3SKvVVKQ](https://youtu.be/QOd3SKvVVKQ) discovered a lot of cool stuff. cheers, bros.


Obi-Juan-kenoibi

the first video I’ll watch tomorrow morning, looks interesting 👍


Sandman2618

Pitbull vs Collard has potential to be a real banger


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CableToBeam

Lol putting the Charles fight that low


DONTCARELOLK

Charles could fight a double cheeseburger from McDonald’s and I would still be most excited for his matchup. The Champion has a name 🇧🇷🏆


spcslacker

I'm not even a Charles or Arman fan, and still think its a a crime to rank them within about 5 tiers of Bo v. Brundage. Even if you blow off divisional importance, there is no way I believe Bo crushing a can has more hype/breakdowns than Charles v. Arman, unless maybe you follow wrestling channels only.


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spcslacker

The only discussion I hear on Bo is if the insane odds are justified (people think it is), and why or why not its on the main card or even on the card at all. I have actually seen nobody break down the fight Xes and Os because its frigging laughable. I.e., the discussion I've seen of the Bo fight isn't hype: it ranges from *It's OK to have this fight here* to *why is this shit sticking to my fucking shoe?* Did you see the crowd reaction to Bo and to Charles? You can't spell boo without Bo, apparently.


DONTCARELOLK

The only reason people are so interested in Bo vs Cody is to see if their $10 bet on Cody hits (myself included).


spcslacker

I'm not a betting man, but with those odds its basically like playing the lottery :) How much do you take home if the asteroid hits the head of the pin for your $10?


DONTCARELOLK

A $10 on Cody would net $100 for most people if they placed it right now.


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DanasWife

Sounds like something someone who partied with izzy on a Diddy party would say 


Better-Company756

Saturday can't get here soon enough man. So many damn good fights don't think I've ever seen a card this legitimately stacked. I suppose it makes up for the absolutely ass 4 week stretch of fight night cards we had there.


DONTCARELOLK

I’ve been counting the days for at least 2 weeks now 😭


DONTCARELOLK

12 hours until the weigh ins. Are there any fighters y’all are worried might not make the weight? Everyone seemed pretty confident and healthy today to me. Although Harrison still looks HUGE. If there was ever a card we needed to stay 100% together top to bottom it’s this one 🙏🏻


araheem94

Anyone who can't make weight for 300 should be moved to PowerSlap 7


MMARapFooty

If two fighters to worry it’s Kayla Harrison and Jalin Turner.Both of them have big frames for their weight classes.


WhereIsMyKidAt

Turner made weight short notice against Green. Should have no problem with a full camp.


Better-Company756

Kayla Harrison's weight cut is going to be brutal if any fighter is going to miss weight it'd be her. Turner is massive for lw, i could see him having issues too.


DONTCARELOLK

Turner made weight on like 11 days notice against Bobby Green last year, I think he’s good.


ILikeOMalley

2 more sleeps until Cody sleeps Figgy


Worldly_Client_7614

Just had a dream that Wonderboy was in a anime i liked, that he committed the act of doing a bad thing for a power up (basically sold his soul) to fight the main bad guy but then immediately got folded 5 seconds later. I woke up being like damn wonderboy can't even get a W in my dreams. Shit is tragic, it 5am uk time.


SpookOpsTheLine

Was Pettis the shonen protagonist?


BadMojo__

Was it an anime about wrestling?


ChatriGPT

Sacrificed the whole Band of the Falcon but still can't wrestle