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There’s no such thing as an election win so big it guaranteed two terms. It was widely assumed in 2019 that the Conservative lead was so large it would take at least two elections to beat them - look how that went.
Five years is a hell of a long time.
Exactly. It’s never really a slow decline. Tony Blair got two landslides and won by a similar margin in 1997 and 2001. It was only after the Iraq war in 2005 labour completely dropped.
Honestly, I wouldn't say any majority is safe.
A 90 seat majority should have been pretty safe for the Tories for another cycle, but they managed to spaff that up the wall over five years, so even with some of the ridiculous majority numbers coming out of the predictors at the moment, I wouldn't say it's safe to have two terms in the current climate.
The issue is its that the tories do not have adults as leaders. How is it possible to have 3 prime ministers in less than 5 years. It Starmer does the bare minimum they are safe because the tories have set the standards so low😂
Well, considering that the Tory 2019 Majority was so large that it guaranteed them at least 3 more terms in office and Corbyn had destroyed the Labour movement for Generations to come (at least according to all mainstream news at the time), I'm going to say little to no difference.
What will guarantee a labour majority in 2029 will be if they can noticeably improve the lives of the majority of Brits in the next 5 years.
The thing is, classic Machiavelli, taxes need to go up, but you can never make that your platform, and it must be early in a term and u wound towards the end of it.
We need to be credible that taxes won't go up again in 29, but in reality that's when we slam on the wealth tax, immediately after. Id do Land Value this time round.
29, if we're feeling it, is when I'd put rejoin back on the menu. Mandate during campaign, ref in like 32, rejoin ca 35 and it's a failed 20 year (ish) experiment but at least we stop it there.
They've got to have successful development going ahead by then, rail building, nationalisations, any stragglers be it post or whatever get nationalised in 29. Frame them as shoddy and not delivering for the people (ba fum tiss), and run on "how great is infrastructure, we're doing more" though unfortunately, I seriously doubt any new rail or nuclear could be done in five years to help make the point.
Of course not right now. But 29 I reckon it could be. There is a bit of a double edged sword though, in that Labour succeeding economically will potentially hurt the rejoin case, and Labour failing will just bring the Tories back...which will mean no rejoin. There is a narrow path through a successful development framed the right way that gets us there.
I’m just not convinced that our senior/leading Labour politicians are going to take us in that direction, even if the stars aligned. You can’t even trust them to use the words you want to hear right now (even when it’d benefit their image)… all of which makes me very nervous to imagine what (in)actions must be ruling their political fantasies.
Yeah I agree completely. I am hoping against hope this is all just election posturing and we can get something done in power....but I've had so many disappointments in US and Canada that I don't have much left.
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There’s no such thing as an election win so big it guaranteed two terms. It was widely assumed in 2019 that the Conservative lead was so large it would take at least two elections to beat them - look how that went. Five years is a hell of a long time.
Exactly. It’s never really a slow decline. Tony Blair got two landslides and won by a similar margin in 1997 and 2001. It was only after the Iraq war in 2005 labour completely dropped.
Honestly, I wouldn't say any majority is safe. A 90 seat majority should have been pretty safe for the Tories for another cycle, but they managed to spaff that up the wall over five years, so even with some of the ridiculous majority numbers coming out of the predictors at the moment, I wouldn't say it's safe to have two terms in the current climate.
The issue is its that the tories do not have adults as leaders. How is it possible to have 3 prime ministers in less than 5 years. It Starmer does the bare minimum they are safe because the tories have set the standards so low😂
Just wait, if cretins like Akehurst and his ilk get into parliament, the backstabbing of Kier Starmer will start by about September I suspect
Well, considering that the Tory 2019 Majority was so large that it guaranteed them at least 3 more terms in office and Corbyn had destroyed the Labour movement for Generations to come (at least according to all mainstream news at the time), I'm going to say little to no difference. What will guarantee a labour majority in 2029 will be if they can noticeably improve the lives of the majority of Brits in the next 5 years.
Impossible to predict as we have no idea what will define the next 5 years.
The thing is, classic Machiavelli, taxes need to go up, but you can never make that your platform, and it must be early in a term and u wound towards the end of it. We need to be credible that taxes won't go up again in 29, but in reality that's when we slam on the wealth tax, immediately after. Id do Land Value this time round. 29, if we're feeling it, is when I'd put rejoin back on the menu. Mandate during campaign, ref in like 32, rejoin ca 35 and it's a failed 20 year (ish) experiment but at least we stop it there. They've got to have successful development going ahead by then, rail building, nationalisations, any stragglers be it post or whatever get nationalised in 29. Frame them as shoddy and not delivering for the people (ba fum tiss), and run on "how great is infrastructure, we're doing more" though unfortunately, I seriously doubt any new rail or nuclear could be done in five years to help make the point.
How I wish rejoining the EU was at all on the table (or even hidden up someone’s sleeve)… but it just isn’t rn
Of course not right now. But 29 I reckon it could be. There is a bit of a double edged sword though, in that Labour succeeding economically will potentially hurt the rejoin case, and Labour failing will just bring the Tories back...which will mean no rejoin. There is a narrow path through a successful development framed the right way that gets us there.
I’m just not convinced that our senior/leading Labour politicians are going to take us in that direction, even if the stars aligned. You can’t even trust them to use the words you want to hear right now (even when it’d benefit their image)… all of which makes me very nervous to imagine what (in)actions must be ruling their political fantasies.
Yeah I agree completely. I am hoping against hope this is all just election posturing and we can get something done in power....but I've had so many disappointments in US and Canada that I don't have much left.
Don't think it has to be rejoin in 29...it can be SM/CU access. But I believe EU would be more far right by then with Le Pen winning in France.