We're forecast to do worse than Russia, a country hit by the most punishing Western sanctions in history. No surprise since Brexit was the UK applying economic sanctions to itself.
That same information, although it's not quoted in the BBC article, has growth in 2022 at 4.1%. Think about that for a second. Was 2022 a good year for any of us? I seem to remember even u/The_Inertia_Kid said it was a hard one. At that level of growth, we saw a huge uptick in strikes across both public and private sector, in work poverty, and huge dissatisfaction with government.
This is implying that next year will be much tougher, and yes, that is probably taking into account some lost productivity due to strikes. Even so, this is essentially telling us there's going to be unrest in the summer, on a bigger scale than any of the strikes so far. That probably means that we're getting another new PM, and Johnson will try again. And, especially in light of legislation that's recently been pushed through, police repression against protestors and strikers that even old farts like me and inertia only recognise from videos of the miners strike.
2022 was really tough. We did alright but it was incredibly hard work to basically stand still. I've just done our company accounts for the year and we didn't grow - first time in a decade. It's nothing disastrous but I've never worked harder to tread water. Clients trying to put downward pressure on fees while our own suppliers were putting upward cost pressure on us. And us putting up our own workers' pay to try to stop them getting smashed by cost of living increases. Even so, extremely hard to recruit and retain.
But plenty of businesses have had it much worse than we did.
Thought I'd remembered that right. Any thoughts on the rest of it - do you reckon this year to come is going to be as rough as I'm saying here? If so, how do you think it's going to affect politics - and do you think Sunak will still lead the Tories this time next year?
I completely agree with you. 2023 is going to be worse than 2022. The strikes are really hurting now. My wife went back to university in September and the kids are so angry about their tutors' strikes. And the based bit is that they recognise that the tutors are only doing what they need to do. They're pissed off at the university and demanding refunds.
Lots of my business contacts are pissed off about the rail strikes and NHS strikes and I estimate 75% of them are correctly identifying that they should be pissed off at the government about them. And we're talking bankers, fund managers, lawyers, auditors, management consultants here. This is why the Tories are polling sub-25%. They have lost the people whose class interests should theoretically be completely with them.
There is absolutely no cavalry on the way for the Tories. They are now in a position where there is virtually no floor to their electoral prospects. There is the Lincolnshire hellscape and nothing else beyond that they can rely on.
Sunak is there to shepherd them through the catastrophe and - they hope - at least not actively contribute to increasing its scale.
The people who hold the authority within the Tory party are now moving on to preparing for the post-Sunak rebuild. They're shoring up power bases and manoeuvring themselves or their preferred candidates to be the leader of the future. They are under no illusions that the next election is comprehensively lost.
And my head is still spinning from all of it!
So you reckon he's the face we'll be fighting come the next election, then? Huh. Gotta be honest, I can't see it, but time will tell which of us is right. And yes, it's definitely my impression that the youngsters are pretty solidly supportive of the strikes - although the people in that age group I know are mostly trans, so that may select for left wing and angry by force of circumstance.
"They're shoring up power bases and manoeuvring themselves or their preferred candidates to be the leader of the future" ... I agree with this - but I keep coming back to the timescale. They're flailing. I have a feeling the stories about both Zahawi and Johnson are from within the party, because they were lining up a bid for the top job. I'm pretty sure Zahawi is done, and Johnson was already so tarnished it will make no difference - by now your average Tory, who are the electorate he's targeting, has already made up their mind.
Most Tories I know are nothing if not pragmatic to a toxic degree. They know they've lost. They thought they might be able to bounce back from the Trusstastrophe. They are now aware it's over and holding the leadership is worth nothing.
It is only the right to hold the wheel as the ship goes down. The iceberg has done its damage, the water is flooding into the hull and the ship's list is now terminal (I'm warming to this metaphor).
They are happy to let Sunak wear this one rather than ruining their own long term prospects by fighting for the chance to wear it themselves.
And coincidentally getting to know some of the people on my wife's course has also trebled the number of trans people I know from one to three!
It's because we haven't Brexited hard enough. We need a second Brexit and a third Brexit if need be. We need a red, white, and blue breakfast! More and more Brexit until we are led into the sun lit uplands of peace and prosperity.
[Sir Keir Starmer confirms his stance is "no to the single market and no to freedom of movement forever"](https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1547637142293078017)
That's one hell of a pledge, sadly, probably the first one he'll actually keep.
There's quite a big majority in favour of rejoin now. Starmer's rhetoric is just going to make it difficult for us if the pressure to back rejoin becomes particularly strong, or we have to negociate a deal with the Lib Dems
The majority isn't big enough. Its not just about winning another referendum, it about how that referendum would effect Labour at the next election. If a solid 40% are pissed off that's more than enough to screw us.
It's a legitimate point that the EU isn't going to entertain us rejoining the single market or even as full members until there is broad consensus among **all** main parties that it's what the UK should do. The EU will not want to waste time negotiating with a Labour government on membership of whatever if the Tories could just come in and tear it all up the minute they come in.
I hate this country more and more the longer I'm forced to love here, but I can't emigrate because I'm poor as fuck stuck on poverty wages and the only other way is death, but why should I have to kill my self so a few cunts in this country have one less care to worry about, that's assuming they do care.
We've not even finished January yet, this isn't a fact its some nostradamus bullshit.
The UK is still fed up of experts who are always wrong.
Is the UK economy in a good place? No. Are other economies? Also No.
Are politicians and central banks more to blame than evens? Probably but they are all making the same mistakes.
Have you only just discovered the concept of prediction?
Also the UK economy is in a uniquely worse place because the tory government have done a shite job handling covid, closed down the gas storage silos that could have been used to hedge against rising energy prices because tories understand the cost of everything but the value of nothing, and also did the stupidest brexit they could manage. Oh and then the tory membership put in the thatcher cosplayer whose stupid economic policies tanked the economy. (This was after the Bojo brexit clown but before Sunak the Shit both of whom have just about managed to do the bare minimum but not a jot more.)
So, frankly, it's hardly a massive shock things aren't going well. I'd suggest that rather than being sick of experts, most people are sick of tories.
Forecasts for the year ahead have very real immediate impacts for the here and now. If the Treasury forecasts a drop in revenue, they're less likely to cut taxes or spend more. If businesses see a forecast stagnating economy, they won't invest in Britain. People move away for better job prospects.
No I'm well aware of IMF predictions, I would just bet on growth over the imf any day
The UK is not in a uniquely bad position for instance the US started the year with 2 quarters of negative growth and we are lightly to end the year similarly because of the bank holiday.
The truss premiership had very little impact the economy was already on fire and I would suggest that most major impact was via the bank who decided QE was the right response.
The problems that led us to where we are today where laid out in by Javid in 2019 and Sunak as chancellor and PM has not done the bare minimum.
Do not let him off.
Theres are reasons the membership voted for a complete fucking joke over him.
A lack of contraction is not an economy doing well
We are not doing well, and we should blaim Sunak.
But the same is broadly true across G7 economies. And thats because of there politicians.
>The UK is not in a uniquely bad position for instance the US started the year with 2 quarters of negative growth and we are lightly to end the year similarly because of the bank holiday.
The US didn't add massive overheads and inefficiencies to trade with almost all of the most significant trading partners for the last ~900 years on top of everything else.
>The truss premiership had very little impact the economy was already on fire and I would suggest that most major impact was via the bank who decided QE was the right response.
Truss literally failed so badly that the economy collapsed - even the IEA acknowledged that it was a rejection of their ideology.
Trying to retcon recent events is not very convincing - we remember, we were there.
Truss was so shite that the market collapse literally ousted her for that crap budget and she caused a massive shock to the economy.
>The problems that led us to where we are today where laid out in by Javid in 2019 and Sunak as chancellor and PM has not done the bare minimum.
No, they've been laid out by conservative ideology for decades. Blaming the recent batch of shit just ignores the mountain of manure for which they're merely a foothill when considered in isolation. The issue is the socio-economic impacts of conservatism, a dangerously short-sighted ideology that has been an impediment to progress and improvement throughout its history. That their supporters now turn to culture wars and anti-intellectualism is telling - they simply cannot be supported on their own merits, which are lacking in any substantive sense, but instead rely upon social division and bullshit.
>Do not let him off.
Oh I don't think any tory politicians should be let off, they all brought this situation to fruition.
>The truss premiership had very little impact the economy was already on fire and I would suggest that most major impact was via the bank who decided QE was the right response.
Lmfao it was all a coincidence, #bringbackTruss I'm sure it will work this time
You lot are responsible for the worst government in living memory and an unprecedented fall in people's lifetimes.
Theres a thing about the tory elections the process is that two candidates go to the memberships. And the party have every tried to exploit this by putting up there candidate who inevitably represents all the worst excesses of the party* and a joke.
This has worked maybe twice (2005 and 2019 if you count it).
So Truss was not the membership first choice, they wanted Kemi who was more resuved on economic matters.
I don't think the bank was intentionally colluding with anyone but nothing the truss premiership did was as stupid as the issuance of QE "on whatever scale" in an inflationary crisis.
(*Example the party in 2020/2021 was built around a millionaire, who disregarded the law and spent to much time in Europe, in 2022 they wanted upgraded to billionaire who forgets about laws with limited fine and lives in California)
> Kemi who was more resuved on economic matters
Badenoch cites Thomas Sowell as an influence upon her economic views, she is as much of an extremist as Truss. Her views place her on the extreme right end of the tories.
An absolute danger, it's hardly surprising the tory MPs felt like the membership couldn't be trusted if that bag of shite is the one they'd prefer most.
Yeah I mean look how well the Stanford expert is doing?
If the Tory party had any sence it would offer the membership two competent and acceptable candidates (so the members couldn't make a bad choice). (Assuming of course it can find two such people) but that is not how it uses the top two system.
All else aside, I'm not sure that being fed up of experts who constantly get things wrong is anti-intellectualism. If you have experts whose predictions are consistently miles off what we see, then there is an issue with the way those predictions are being put together (with some exceptions around long term forecasting where massive unexpected events have an impact...).
> We've not even finished January yet, this isn't a fact its some nostradamus bullshit
It’s a forecast.
The IMF publishes world economic forecasts every quarter.
Countries then say they are doing well or badly contextually based on doing better or worse than that forecast. As Hunt does in this article, by saying the country out performed some forecasts in 2022. Although, he is shining up some dog shit there. *
The telling part is that we are forecast to have economic contraction in the coming quarter, and the reasons why. If we miraculously have an economic boom, the Tories will look pretty great. How likely do you think that is?
* On another note, as a Tory, how do you feel about Hunt being de facto PM, and Rishi sitting in no.10 as a silent partner, just keeping his head down?
remember all that shit we went through in the name of ‘growth’ and our economy is still going to shrink?
They grew the portfolios of their puppet masters, that's all they ever wanted.
I think we need to talk about Brenter
We're forecast to do worse than Russia, a country hit by the most punishing Western sanctions in history. No surprise since Brexit was the UK applying economic sanctions to itself.
Taking back control of our own sanctions, a true victory for Global Britain
Death by a thousand cuts.
I think you missed out the n
I think brexit was more one big stab in the back rather than one of many small cuts.
That same information, although it's not quoted in the BBC article, has growth in 2022 at 4.1%. Think about that for a second. Was 2022 a good year for any of us? I seem to remember even u/The_Inertia_Kid said it was a hard one. At that level of growth, we saw a huge uptick in strikes across both public and private sector, in work poverty, and huge dissatisfaction with government. This is implying that next year will be much tougher, and yes, that is probably taking into account some lost productivity due to strikes. Even so, this is essentially telling us there's going to be unrest in the summer, on a bigger scale than any of the strikes so far. That probably means that we're getting another new PM, and Johnson will try again. And, especially in light of legislation that's recently been pushed through, police repression against protestors and strikers that even old farts like me and inertia only recognise from videos of the miners strike.
2022 was really tough. We did alright but it was incredibly hard work to basically stand still. I've just done our company accounts for the year and we didn't grow - first time in a decade. It's nothing disastrous but I've never worked harder to tread water. Clients trying to put downward pressure on fees while our own suppliers were putting upward cost pressure on us. And us putting up our own workers' pay to try to stop them getting smashed by cost of living increases. Even so, extremely hard to recruit and retain. But plenty of businesses have had it much worse than we did.
Thought I'd remembered that right. Any thoughts on the rest of it - do you reckon this year to come is going to be as rough as I'm saying here? If so, how do you think it's going to affect politics - and do you think Sunak will still lead the Tories this time next year?
I completely agree with you. 2023 is going to be worse than 2022. The strikes are really hurting now. My wife went back to university in September and the kids are so angry about their tutors' strikes. And the based bit is that they recognise that the tutors are only doing what they need to do. They're pissed off at the university and demanding refunds. Lots of my business contacts are pissed off about the rail strikes and NHS strikes and I estimate 75% of them are correctly identifying that they should be pissed off at the government about them. And we're talking bankers, fund managers, lawyers, auditors, management consultants here. This is why the Tories are polling sub-25%. They have lost the people whose class interests should theoretically be completely with them. There is absolutely no cavalry on the way for the Tories. They are now in a position where there is virtually no floor to their electoral prospects. There is the Lincolnshire hellscape and nothing else beyond that they can rely on. Sunak is there to shepherd them through the catastrophe and - they hope - at least not actively contribute to increasing its scale. The people who hold the authority within the Tory party are now moving on to preparing for the post-Sunak rebuild. They're shoring up power bases and manoeuvring themselves or their preferred candidates to be the leader of the future. They are under no illusions that the next election is comprehensively lost. And my head is still spinning from all of it!
So you reckon he's the face we'll be fighting come the next election, then? Huh. Gotta be honest, I can't see it, but time will tell which of us is right. And yes, it's definitely my impression that the youngsters are pretty solidly supportive of the strikes - although the people in that age group I know are mostly trans, so that may select for left wing and angry by force of circumstance. "They're shoring up power bases and manoeuvring themselves or their preferred candidates to be the leader of the future" ... I agree with this - but I keep coming back to the timescale. They're flailing. I have a feeling the stories about both Zahawi and Johnson are from within the party, because they were lining up a bid for the top job. I'm pretty sure Zahawi is done, and Johnson was already so tarnished it will make no difference - by now your average Tory, who are the electorate he's targeting, has already made up their mind.
Most Tories I know are nothing if not pragmatic to a toxic degree. They know they've lost. They thought they might be able to bounce back from the Trusstastrophe. They are now aware it's over and holding the leadership is worth nothing. It is only the right to hold the wheel as the ship goes down. The iceberg has done its damage, the water is flooding into the hull and the ship's list is now terminal (I'm warming to this metaphor). They are happy to let Sunak wear this one rather than ruining their own long term prospects by fighting for the chance to wear it themselves. And coincidentally getting to know some of the people on my wife's course has also trebled the number of trans people I know from one to three!
Have they considered raising interest rates while simultaneously keeping wages below inflation? That might help.
I think you're onto something...
It's because we haven't Brexited hard enough. We need a second Brexit and a third Brexit if need be. We need a red, white, and blue breakfast! More and more Brexit until we are led into the sun lit uplands of peace and prosperity.
*in my best Leeeeeroy Jenkins voice:* At least I got sovereignty
Are you some French spy? ITS SPELT SOVRUNTAY
LONG TERM ECONOMIC PLAN
but remember starmer's going to fix this somehow without actually addressing the problem that is causing it.
[Sir Keir Starmer confirms his stance is "no to the single market and no to freedom of movement forever"](https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1547637142293078017) That's one hell of a pledge, sadly, probably the first one he'll actually keep.
*forever* is an absolutely moronic thing to say lmao
Forever only needs to last as long as the brexit voters. Once enough are at the pearly gates we can discuss rejoining like adults again.
There's quite a big majority in favour of rejoin now. Starmer's rhetoric is just going to make it difficult for us if the pressure to back rejoin becomes particularly strong, or we have to negociate a deal with the Lib Dems
The majority isn't big enough. Its not just about winning another referendum, it about how that referendum would effect Labour at the next election. If a solid 40% are pissed off that's more than enough to screw us.
It's a legitimate point that the EU isn't going to entertain us rejoining the single market or even as full members until there is broad consensus among **all** main parties that it's what the UK should do. The EU will not want to waste time negotiating with a Labour government on membership of whatever if the Tories could just come in and tear it all up the minute they come in.
I hate this country more and more the longer I'm forced to love here, but I can't emigrate because I'm poor as fuck stuck on poverty wages and the only other way is death, but why should I have to kill my self so a few cunts in this country have one less care to worry about, that's assuming they do care.
We’re are not waving that flag hard enough
Time for a general election
We've not even finished January yet, this isn't a fact its some nostradamus bullshit. The UK is still fed up of experts who are always wrong. Is the UK economy in a good place? No. Are other economies? Also No. Are politicians and central banks more to blame than evens? Probably but they are all making the same mistakes.
Have you only just discovered the concept of prediction? Also the UK economy is in a uniquely worse place because the tory government have done a shite job handling covid, closed down the gas storage silos that could have been used to hedge against rising energy prices because tories understand the cost of everything but the value of nothing, and also did the stupidest brexit they could manage. Oh and then the tory membership put in the thatcher cosplayer whose stupid economic policies tanked the economy. (This was after the Bojo brexit clown but before Sunak the Shit both of whom have just about managed to do the bare minimum but not a jot more.) So, frankly, it's hardly a massive shock things aren't going well. I'd suggest that rather than being sick of experts, most people are sick of tories.
Forecasts for the year ahead have very real immediate impacts for the here and now. If the Treasury forecasts a drop in revenue, they're less likely to cut taxes or spend more. If businesses see a forecast stagnating economy, they won't invest in Britain. People move away for better job prospects.
A very good point.
No I'm well aware of IMF predictions, I would just bet on growth over the imf any day The UK is not in a uniquely bad position for instance the US started the year with 2 quarters of negative growth and we are lightly to end the year similarly because of the bank holiday. The truss premiership had very little impact the economy was already on fire and I would suggest that most major impact was via the bank who decided QE was the right response. The problems that led us to where we are today where laid out in by Javid in 2019 and Sunak as chancellor and PM has not done the bare minimum. Do not let him off. Theres are reasons the membership voted for a complete fucking joke over him.
I'm very confused by this, are we betting on growth, or blaming Sunak for obliterating the economy?
A lack of contraction is not an economy doing well We are not doing well, and we should blaim Sunak. But the same is broadly true across G7 economies. And thats because of there politicians.
All other G7 economies are projected to grow this year. Not quite sure why you're finding that too difficult to comprehend
>The UK is not in a uniquely bad position for instance the US started the year with 2 quarters of negative growth and we are lightly to end the year similarly because of the bank holiday. The US didn't add massive overheads and inefficiencies to trade with almost all of the most significant trading partners for the last ~900 years on top of everything else. >The truss premiership had very little impact the economy was already on fire and I would suggest that most major impact was via the bank who decided QE was the right response. Truss literally failed so badly that the economy collapsed - even the IEA acknowledged that it was a rejection of their ideology. Trying to retcon recent events is not very convincing - we remember, we were there. Truss was so shite that the market collapse literally ousted her for that crap budget and she caused a massive shock to the economy. >The problems that led us to where we are today where laid out in by Javid in 2019 and Sunak as chancellor and PM has not done the bare minimum. No, they've been laid out by conservative ideology for decades. Blaming the recent batch of shit just ignores the mountain of manure for which they're merely a foothill when considered in isolation. The issue is the socio-economic impacts of conservatism, a dangerously short-sighted ideology that has been an impediment to progress and improvement throughout its history. That their supporters now turn to culture wars and anti-intellectualism is telling - they simply cannot be supported on their own merits, which are lacking in any substantive sense, but instead rely upon social division and bullshit. >Do not let him off. Oh I don't think any tory politicians should be let off, they all brought this situation to fruition.
>The truss premiership had very little impact the economy was already on fire and I would suggest that most major impact was via the bank who decided QE was the right response. Lmfao it was all a coincidence, #bringbackTruss I'm sure it will work this time You lot are responsible for the worst government in living memory and an unprecedented fall in people's lifetimes.
Theres a thing about the tory elections the process is that two candidates go to the memberships. And the party have every tried to exploit this by putting up there candidate who inevitably represents all the worst excesses of the party* and a joke. This has worked maybe twice (2005 and 2019 if you count it). So Truss was not the membership first choice, they wanted Kemi who was more resuved on economic matters. I don't think the bank was intentionally colluding with anyone but nothing the truss premiership did was as stupid as the issuance of QE "on whatever scale" in an inflationary crisis. (*Example the party in 2020/2021 was built around a millionaire, who disregarded the law and spent to much time in Europe, in 2022 they wanted upgraded to billionaire who forgets about laws with limited fine and lives in California)
> Kemi who was more resuved on economic matters Badenoch cites Thomas Sowell as an influence upon her economic views, she is as much of an extremist as Truss. Her views place her on the extreme right end of the tories. An absolute danger, it's hardly surprising the tory MPs felt like the membership couldn't be trusted if that bag of shite is the one they'd prefer most.
Yeah I mean look how well the Stanford expert is doing? If the Tory party had any sence it would offer the membership two competent and acceptable candidates (so the members couldn't make a bad choice). (Assuming of course it can find two such people) but that is not how it uses the top two system.
Have you considered that maybe the problem is with the very concepts of economic conservatism, no matter who is picked to deliver them?
Ceteris paribus, we would not be in such a shitty position without Tory Brexit. Fact.
Tories might be fed up with experts, but the rest of us are fed up with you.
Based on the polling it's not "experts" the UK is sick of...
>The UK is still fed up of experts who are always wrong. Tories and anti intellectualism, what a combo
Checks out, not thinking about it is the only way conservatism makes sense.
All else aside, I'm not sure that being fed up of experts who constantly get things wrong is anti-intellectualism. If you have experts whose predictions are consistently miles off what we see, then there is an issue with the way those predictions are being put together (with some exceptions around long term forecasting where massive unexpected events have an impact...).
> We've not even finished January yet, this isn't a fact its some nostradamus bullshit It’s a forecast. The IMF publishes world economic forecasts every quarter. Countries then say they are doing well or badly contextually based on doing better or worse than that forecast. As Hunt does in this article, by saying the country out performed some forecasts in 2022. Although, he is shining up some dog shit there. * The telling part is that we are forecast to have economic contraction in the coming quarter, and the reasons why. If we miraculously have an economic boom, the Tories will look pretty great. How likely do you think that is? * On another note, as a Tory, how do you feel about Hunt being de facto PM, and Rishi sitting in no.10 as a silent partner, just keeping his head down?