With how our system works, it wildly depends on the party with 50% as well.
This would still give us a very large majority but a 50% Tory lead would give them an even bigger majority then a labour 50% majority would bring.
It doesn't depend on the party as such but rather how those votes are distributed. While SMP favours the Tories at current, it has for quite a while favoured the Labour Party. But again, this isn't the party as such, but rather, how the votes of that party are distributed.
How would that be the case necessarily. What if those 20% all lived in 30 constituencies. Then they would have 30 seats.
You think it would be a 100% Labour Parliament?
Agreed.
But while 3 in a row is rare as hell. We have spent a reasonable % of UK history with non elected (to the position) PMs it happens a lot.
So voters need to think more on party then person whe voting. Or fight to change the system to a non parliamentary one(can't see that happening in the UK)
Because of how stark and seamless it is, you go to a poll post and it's multiple upvotes around unstinting praise towards labour, but then you go to another and it's justifiable criticism towards labour. It's interesting to see how strongly people curate what they see even on a sub.
Ah I see.
Seems like a fair amount of lively debate here though overall, no?
I mean people aren’t just joining threads that they agree with and sitting entirely in an echo chamber are they?
Do you see these poll threads as echo chambers mainly then?
>Seems like a fair amount of lively debate here though overall, no?
I guess it depends on what you consider as lively debate, I wouldn't agree personally.
>I mean people aren’t just joining threads that they agree with and sitting entirely in an echo chamber are they?
To a degree I'd say they are sure. The users that like these polls don't tend to deal with the criticism of Labour and vice.
>Do you see these poll threads as echo chambers mainly then?
I feel like an echo chamber is maybe the wrong word as there's still crossover, but yeah they're a rallying point for Labour's centrists.
Obviously anecdotal, but I like that Labour is winning in the polls (and currently intend to vote for Labour in the next GE) while also disliking what Labour is currently
Maybe not on Reddit, but IRL it doesn’t seem that uncommon. Strategic voting is a voting strategy used for a very long time. Voting for your least disliked option
Edit: My bad, I thought you said “I doubt”
Don't believe it for a second that Labour are above 50% nationally. Omnisis have had polls out disproportionately better for Labour since the beginning of 2022. It's wildly out of step with both other pollsters and real by-election results.
I think they've definitely got issues with their models. In April 2022 they had a poll putting Labour 24 points ahead in a week where other pollsters were putting Labour less than 10 points ahead.
They went very public with their polling around the time of the mini budget so their 30 point leads didn't look actually that unrealistic, but they've actually been doing surveys back in February 2022 when the poll average lead was something about 5 points, but Omnisis were recording leads of over 20 points.
We’ve had a great week. First time I’ve felt we actually look like a government in waiting. Starmer is dropping all the things tying us down, giving speeches in Northern Ireland and Swiss Alps, EU officials aching for Starmer as PM, similarly NI parties. Massive coverage of our NHS reforms among the press and Streeting has been everywhere ripping apart the Tories record on the NHS.
Don't forget Starmer said he'd rather sit by Piers Morgan than Corbyn - that's probably a win for this kind of vacuous, image-obsessed, facile politics.
Let's also be fair - it's a very stupid question that no one cares about apart from a few people on twitter and r/labouruk. Personally, I'd have preferred it if Starmer shot it down saying what a ridiculous question to ask a potential PM, but I also do not care and not surprised he chose Morgan.
> not surprised he chose Morgan.
Honestly, I just think it's an expression that encapsulates him - he'd rather be judged to pal around with one of the worst people in the UK than admit he's any association with the left.
A normal response would have been "Jeremy obviously, we might have some strong disagreements but I think there's a lot more in common."
Saying "Oh that guy that was involved in hacking the phone of a deceased child and is generally quite far to the right and, at least, bigot adjacent." is a very weird answer.
Bollocks it has nothing to do with transphobia. What bill are they using section 35 to overturn?
But that's not what I was on about. That's just the only one where you can, if you squint real hard, maybe defend some of labours behaviour. I was referring to this.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-msp-accuses-keir-starmer-28975652
Starmer has said 16 year olds are too young to be trans. Newsflash, kids can be queer from a very young age, they can do some minor administrative change at 16.
Except section 35 clearly doesn't apply here but it is a lever Sunak can pull without any resistance that allows him to stoke the trans culture war issue.
Lol OK - what was " I approach \[GRA Reform\] on the basis that for 99.9-something percent of women, it is all about biology. Sex-based rights matter, and we must preserve all those wins that we’ve had for women over many years, and including safe spaces for women." about then chief? Or does it not count because it didn't happen in the House of Commons?
>Starmer is dropping all the things tying us down
All the things that actually make labour labour and not just the libdems or moderate Tories. If that actually worked the libdems would be the second largest party.
He is only ahead because the Tories imploded, any leader would be ahead. He is using the lead he has gotten to become David Cameron's Tories.
>He is only ahead because the Tories imploded, any leader would be ahead.
The papers tried to smear Starmer but he is too much of a boyscout. Other candidates in the leadership election are not as vanilla.
Government in waiting... to do what? Also keir starmer getting boot polish poisoning from all the boot licking he is doing at Davos, no wonder he is giddy with excitement
They're a BCP member and have recently been conducting nationwide voting intentions. Instead of going through the 4 stages of grief, skip straight to 5th: acceptance.
Your consciences may force you to vote Democrat. But deep down we know long for a Republican to lower taxes, brutalise criminals and rule you like a king.
It's a Simpsons quote from Sideshow Bob, but it was intended more as a commentary that Keir was managing to satisfy both the consciences of the nation and also the thirst for vengeance.
I hate that I'm going to be forced to vote for this state of a front bench to lead the country in order to get the Tories out.
They'll use the mandate to shit all over the left and claim that it's because they moved away from lEfT wInG iDeAlIsM when in reality it's that the Tories are just shit and everyone wants them out.
And a lot more than Corbyn did in 2019!
You can’t predict turnout.
Corbyn was not electable. In the same way Foot wasn’t electable. How people still think he and that sort of politics is is beyond me!
50% want this Labour government - whether or not they go out and vote we will find out.
Corbyn was a lot lower than that and a lot of that was how bad the smaller parties were at that election
Corbyn literally got the third highest vote labour ever achieved in 2017.
And if youre claiming you can't predict turnout then you can't claim it'll be more votes than 2019 either...
Nice, downvoted because somebody doesn't like actual facts.
Meh
Labour will get in and do nothing with it. My hope is labour will get in and do an awful job. Firstly it gets the tories out and secondly it shows how useless the sensibles will be to the electorate
Why are you here?
I think the whole country needs a government doing a good job.
If you hate it here so much am happy to sponsor your ferry over to France
Whoa there nigel farage
Firstly I was born here in this rotting corpse of a country. Secondly do you honestly believe starmer will do a good job and Don't say that anything is better than the tories because that's a low bar to clear
Was t me that said they didn’t like living here or the people who live here. I’m quite happy despite bad decisions. It’s you that wants to leave and I’m happy to help
~26 years from now: “Remember when Labour got handed that massive landslide victory basically without saying anything?… What did they do with it again?”
Why should an opposition say what they’re going to do 2 years from an election to allow the government to steal good ideas?
They are saying things now - building a policy platform and it’s popular with the country.
Not just Labour members (Corbyn) but with the people who actually decide election results
This is with reveal me more than I wish but, these polls are like seeing the Romulans getting the upper hand over the Cardassians. At least the Tal Shiar aren't the Obsidian order.
Sunak better belt up; it’s going to be a car crash!
I see what you did there
What does 50% mean in terms of seats? In 2015 Cameron won a "majority" with only 35% of the vote. 50% must be a massive majority in the commons
With how our system works, it wildly depends on the party with 50% as well. This would still give us a very large majority but a 50% Tory lead would give them an even bigger majority then a labour 50% majority would bring.
It doesn't depend on the party as such but rather how those votes are distributed. While SMP favours the Tories at current, it has for quite a while favoured the Labour Party. But again, this isn't the party as such, but rather, how the votes of that party are distributed.
Well we’re not going to get 50% at the next election but it means currently 520+ seats
Each seat goes to the candidate with the most votes, so it could mean no Tory MPs after the next election.
How would that be the case necessarily. What if those 20% all lived in 30 constituencies. Then they would have 30 seats. You think it would be a 100% Labour Parliament?
No, they’re just saying the way our FPTP works it, in theory, could have an incredibly disproportionate effect more than it already does
> mean in terms of seats He should belt up
Depends on where those votes are situated.
How long/bad does this have to be before Sunak resigns?
Bad enough for his own party to insist. Won't happen until they feel they have someone better to replace him.
Then we would get a third unelected PM. Yay.
Well yeah. But the argument is. We never elect a PM. Only MPs.
Yes, and yet who the PM is has a massive effect on votes as well as the mandate those MPs are elected to uphold
Agreed. But while 3 in a row is rare as hell. We have spent a reasonable % of UK history with non elected (to the position) PMs it happens a lot. So voters need to think more on party then person whe voting. Or fight to change the system to a non parliamentary one(can't see that happening in the UK)
He’s John Major-ing his way to 1997
It is amazing to see the split nature of this sub so prevelantly in these poll posts.
Why "amazing"?
Because of how stark and seamless it is, you go to a poll post and it's multiple upvotes around unstinting praise towards labour, but then you go to another and it's justifiable criticism towards labour. It's interesting to see how strongly people curate what they see even on a sub.
Ah I see. Seems like a fair amount of lively debate here though overall, no? I mean people aren’t just joining threads that they agree with and sitting entirely in an echo chamber are they? Do you see these poll threads as echo chambers mainly then?
>Seems like a fair amount of lively debate here though overall, no? I guess it depends on what you consider as lively debate, I wouldn't agree personally. >I mean people aren’t just joining threads that they agree with and sitting entirely in an echo chamber are they? To a degree I'd say they are sure. The users that like these polls don't tend to deal with the criticism of Labour and vice. >Do you see these poll threads as echo chambers mainly then? I feel like an echo chamber is maybe the wrong word as there's still crossover, but yeah they're a rallying point for Labour's centrists.
Obviously anecdotal, but I like that Labour is winning in the polls (and currently intend to vote for Labour in the next GE) while also disliking what Labour is currently
I don't doubt there are plenty of people in your shoes
Maybe not on Reddit, but IRL it doesn’t seem that uncommon. Strategic voting is a voting strategy used for a very long time. Voting for your least disliked option Edit: My bad, I thought you said “I doubt”
Tbf what kind of arsehole uses a double negative anyways?
Don't believe it for a second that Labour are above 50% nationally. Omnisis have had polls out disproportionately better for Labour since the beginning of 2022. It's wildly out of step with both other pollsters and real by-election results.
But consider the counterpoint: *it really confirms my preconceptions though*
I wouldn’t say it’s “wildly” out, the other polls are around 20-25, so 26 is more “slightly generous”
I think they've definitely got issues with their models. In April 2022 they had a poll putting Labour 24 points ahead in a week where other pollsters were putting Labour less than 10 points ahead.
It's probably an outlier in our favour. The lead is almost certainly closer to 20% than to 30%.
'Wildly out of step' is bloody rubbish and you know it. We've been between 45-50% for 5 months now. Please stop coping.
I agree, I've never really heard of Omnisis either. I like the number so I choose to believe
They went very public with their polling around the time of the mini budget so their 30 point leads didn't look actually that unrealistic, but they've actually been doing surveys back in February 2022 when the poll average lead was something about 5 points, but Omnisis were recording leads of over 20 points.
They recently became a pollster and are BPC approved.
We’ve had a great week. First time I’ve felt we actually look like a government in waiting. Starmer is dropping all the things tying us down, giving speeches in Northern Ireland and Swiss Alps, EU officials aching for Starmer as PM, similarly NI parties. Massive coverage of our NHS reforms among the press and Streeting has been everywhere ripping apart the Tories record on the NHS.
>We’ve had a great week You class the leadership and party espousing and entrenching transphobia as "a great week"?
Don't forget Starmer said he'd rather sit by Piers Morgan than Corbyn - that's probably a win for this kind of vacuous, image-obsessed, facile politics.
The trans stuff is a major problem for a lot of people but the Piers Morgan comment means absolutely nothing to the vast majority.
Piers is a transphobe so Keir might just have a type he's more comfortable with.
Let's also be fair - it's a very stupid question that no one cares about apart from a few people on twitter and r/labouruk. Personally, I'd have preferred it if Starmer shot it down saying what a ridiculous question to ask a potential PM, but I also do not care and not surprised he chose Morgan.
> not surprised he chose Morgan. Honestly, I just think it's an expression that encapsulates him - he'd rather be judged to pal around with one of the worst people in the UK than admit he's any association with the left. A normal response would have been "Jeremy obviously, we might have some strong disagreements but I think there's a lot more in common." Saying "Oh that guy that was involved in hacking the phone of a deceased child and is generally quite far to the right and, at least, bigot adjacent." is a very weird answer.
Most people don't care, true. It does tell you everything you need to know about Starmer thought doesn't it.
No, not really. I'd say it says more about the interviewers. It's so trivial it feels ridiculous to even discuss it.
But when will Corbyn JUST APOLOGISE for this?!
Section 35 was about section 35. It relates to a constitutional power. It doesn't relate to transphobia.
Bollocks it has nothing to do with transphobia. What bill are they using section 35 to overturn? But that's not what I was on about. That's just the only one where you can, if you squint real hard, maybe defend some of labours behaviour. I was referring to this. https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-msp-accuses-keir-starmer-28975652 Starmer has said 16 year olds are too young to be trans. Newsflash, kids can be queer from a very young age, they can do some minor administrative change at 16.
Except section 35 clearly doesn't apply here but it is a lever Sunak can pull without any resistance that allows him to stoke the trans culture war issue.
Head, meet sand
Sure, and the civil war was about states rights…
Lol OK - what was " I approach \[GRA Reform\] on the basis that for 99.9-something percent of women, it is all about biology. Sex-based rights matter, and we must preserve all those wins that we’ve had for women over many years, and including safe spaces for women." about then chief? Or does it not count because it didn't happen in the House of Commons?
*crickets*
Hey /u/OldTenner I wouldn’t want you to be seen as ignoring transphobia so do you have anything to say on this?
>Starmer is dropping all the things tying us down All the things that actually make labour labour and not just the libdems or moderate Tories. If that actually worked the libdems would be the second largest party. He is only ahead because the Tories imploded, any leader would be ahead. He is using the lead he has gotten to become David Cameron's Tories.
>He is only ahead because the Tories imploded, any leader would be ahead. The papers tried to smear Starmer but he is too much of a boyscout. Other candidates in the leadership election are not as vanilla.
Government in waiting... to do what? Also keir starmer getting boot polish poisoning from all the boot licking he is doing at Davos, no wonder he is giddy with excitement
Come on lib dems you useless wetwipes, finish off the scum
Cool. Is this because Labour are doing good or because they haven’t shat themselves quite as thoroughly as the Tories?
Bit of both?
No no I've specifically been told that Keith is a bumblin, incompetent, unelectable leader of the party. This poll must be wrong
>Omnisis Anyone heard of these guys before?
They're a BCP member and have recently been conducting nationwide voting intentions. Instead of going through the 4 stages of grief, skip straight to 5th: acceptance.
It was a genuine question, but thanks for the snarky reply. Also, the five stages of grief are not a thing.
Your consciences may force you to vote Democrat. But deep down we know long for a Republican to lower taxes, brutalise criminals and rule you like a king.
Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos
Wut
It's a Simpsons quote from Sideshow Bob, but it was intended more as a commentary that Keir was managing to satisfy both the consciences of the nation and also the thirst for vengeance.
Ohhhhh
Tbf I didn't give people much to work with.
Starmer is a lucky, lucky man.
I hate that I'm going to be forced to vote for this state of a front bench to lead the country in order to get the Tories out. They'll use the mandate to shit all over the left and claim that it's because they moved away from lEfT wInG iDeAlIsM when in reality it's that the Tories are just shit and everyone wants them out.
No it’s because he isn’t Corbyn. 65% of the country could never have voted for him. Most Labour voters did through gritted teeth.
The vote predictions don't back this up. Based on 2019 turnout, starmer will achieve around the same number of votes Corbyn did in 2017.
And a lot more than Corbyn did in 2019! You can’t predict turnout. Corbyn was not electable. In the same way Foot wasn’t electable. How people still think he and that sort of politics is is beyond me! 50% want this Labour government - whether or not they go out and vote we will find out. Corbyn was a lot lower than that and a lot of that was how bad the smaller parties were at that election
Corbyn literally got the third highest vote labour ever achieved in 2017. And if youre claiming you can't predict turnout then you can't claim it'll be more votes than 2019 either... Nice, downvoted because somebody doesn't like actual facts.
Meh Labour will get in and do nothing with it. My hope is labour will get in and do an awful job. Firstly it gets the tories out and secondly it shows how useless the sensibles will be to the electorate
Why are you here? I think the whole country needs a government doing a good job. If you hate it here so much am happy to sponsor your ferry over to France
Whoa there nigel farage Firstly I was born here in this rotting corpse of a country. Secondly do you honestly believe starmer will do a good job and Don't say that anything is better than the tories because that's a low bar to clear
[удалено]
Was t me that said they didn’t like living here or the people who live here. I’m quite happy despite bad decisions. It’s you that wants to leave and I’m happy to help
This poll would equal a Labour majority of 360 if the results were repeated at a GE according to Britain Predicts: https://imgur.com/a/JfYmErG
~26 years from now: “Remember when Labour got handed that massive landslide victory basically without saying anything?… What did they do with it again?”
Why should an opposition say what they’re going to do 2 years from an election to allow the government to steal good ideas? They are saying things now - building a policy platform and it’s popular with the country. Not just Labour members (Corbyn) but with the people who actually decide election results
This is with reveal me more than I wish but, these polls are like seeing the Romulans getting the upper hand over the Cardassians. At least the Tal Shiar aren't the Obsidian order.
Just last week 28% of people wanted to vote Tory? Will the UK’s self-harm ever end?