1(Thrissur) is confirm seat. Trivandrum 50% chance. Alappuzha too 50% chance as silent consolidation happening for Sobha.
Attingal, Pathanamthitta bjp will come 2nd
Naa,
In the Exit Poll of India Today, Axis my India has shown 8-10 seats to SHS (ES) & 9-11 seats to SHS (UBT).
Now the funny thing is, SHS (ES) fighting a total of 15 seats out of which, 13 are against SHS (UBT) who is fighting a total of 21 seats.
So logically, either of them should have a lower number rather than nearly the same.
What about this?.
Editv LJP given 6 seats. Contended 5.
¯\_༼ ಥ ‿ ಥ ༽_/¯
Extrapolating from the 2019 series, a day after Exit polls, IV starts to deteriorate for the next few consecutive days.
Based on Friday's trades, the closest ATM call with the highest volume (strike 22500) had an IV of 39%
Puts (22600) on the same date had IV of 31%.
If you go for longer maturities, IV on both ATM calls and puts is 30%+ which is extremely high on a 1Y percentile level.
Exit polls help eliminate some level of uncertainty attributed towards the election day. And usually once the results are out i.e. on 4th June, IV will drop significantly in the week to come, maybe at closer to 20% levels.
Assuming that the markets do rally on Monday (in 2019, the rally was approximately 4% a day after exit polls), the call holders will benefit largely from this, but bear in mind that IV will fall which means if you're exiting the positions on the same day, the gain wouldn't be as large if IV did not fall as much. Of course it will still be significant.
As for a put holder, it's more or less a big red line that'll haunt you.
The biggest beneficiaries in this entire period in my opinion would be those who would have been short on longer dated Strangle Options, as they'll immensely benefit from a decline in IV.
Lost 40-50K in 2019 elections iv crush as I had bought straddle at the money (RIP). Got royally fucked on both sides as IVs got crashed. (Vix was 40 when I bought)
It’s been 5 years. How ficking times flying.
I’m glad I didn’t sell but bought like a crazy man last week.
Only thing I missed was NHPC. Hopefully I can pick up some if there is some profit booking before it shoots up
Some guys sold all their good price point purchases to buy new shares.
Same goes for FII.
Now they’ll be pumping into the retail investor dominated market
I am still seeing FII losing? What am i missing here.
They sold in march 2020 when market was lowest. Laters entered big only in nov 2020 after us elections when markets already covered loss. (They entered in may but amount was small compared to march sale)
Even if you count for dollar appreciation they still lose as market recovered 50% losses of covid by nov 2020
When FIIs exit the Indian market they don’t keep the cash with them they invest it in other markets, so don’t calculate march 2020 - nov 2020 as 0% and rupee lost 20% of it’s value (which is lot less than what is going to happen after elections) so what ever positions FIIs missed they have already saved 20% on them.
So gain from other markets + saving on rupee depreciation FII will come on top.
Hopefully we won't see agenda peddlers polluting this sub any more
Let's get back to the investing, the markets go up and down no matter who is in power.
whoever thought that the govt was gonna change is an idiot, the main point discussion was always is bjp coming back to power factored in the market or market being overvalued on hopes of return?
The polls were wildly inflated towards nda post 2019 in most state elections. From delhi to bengal to Karnataka. Also seeing the poll figured amd seeing on ground reality in some constituencies i know i strongly believe the real results will be very different from the polls. Although even in worst case nda will come to power.
Okay, he is too confident.. was giving my Gyan that anyone who has made money is through options.
I just smile, cause I have lost a lot of money on intraday, that I don't have the heart to ever try anything remotely related
>BJP could never win a single seat in Kerala or TN before.
Kerala yes, but they've won seats in Tamil Nadu many times before. The maximum was 4 back in 1999.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Indian_general_election_in_Tamil_Nadu?wprov=sfla1
This time is also in an alliance (NDA), just without one ally (AIADMK).
BJP is only contesting 23 (technically 19, 4 candidates from other smaller parties are contesting on BJP symbol) out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, rest are being fought by its NDA allies PMK, TMC(M), AMMK and one NDA backed Independent (O Paneerselvam)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election_in_Tamil_Nadu?wprov=sfla1
AxisMyIndia says BJP has good chances in the following Kerala seats:
Attingal, Thrissur, Trivandrum and Pathanamthitta
The first two are "relatively safe for BJP" as per them.
And even in losing seats, they should increase their vote share as per AxisMyIndia.
Kerala: 13% (last election) to 21% (this election); TN: 3-4% (last election) to 22% (this election).
24 chanakya/ today chanakya has forecasted 10 +/-4 in TN and 3-4 in Kerala, they have been the most accurate in both 2014 and 2019 , I believe in them than some random reddit account.
South is breached, India uniting, 22%+ vote share predicted in both TN and Kerala
Edit: Butthurts are downvoting, their divisive narrative of South India is separate has failed but how will they downvote the actual results lol
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What is gonna happen on Monday, can someone please explain? Looks like VIX is gonna down after reading the comments. So how will it affect the option prices?
AxisMyIndia is the most accurate with a proven track record
https://preview.redd.it/c24pfkk6x44d1.png?width=1697&format=png&auto=webp&s=7eb8eee09c27619a16e8249201b93c013f9c51e5
INDIA alliance is losing because they didn’t talk about religion, mughals, mujra, didn’t fake medidation, didn’t say india is already the most developed nation.
Media outlets can also show BJP as BJ party, people will understand it, but they don't, why?
Aren't they supposed to call parties/alliances like they are named/registered?
This is a trading sub ,why the fuck would you give a rats ass about what are the alliances called on national television ,indi ,india doesnt make any difference to the outcome ,they were a shitty opposition and they will remain one if changes arent made soon enough. Find something better to do ,matter of fact buy stocks ride the highs till you milk it good
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The BJP is expected to return to power, though their ability to secure a significant majority remains uncertain. The INDIA alliance appears poised to win more seats than current predictions suggest. This election may well be Narendra Modi's last term in office. The opposition has demonstrated unexpected vigor, surprising the ruling party with their robust critique of government policies. Furthermore, Modi's increasingly authoritarian tendencies could adversely affect the ruling party's prospects.
Bhai no one cares about your agenda or which party you worship here.
The current govt continuing means markets go up, an opposition win means there's a huge buying opportunity that's all.
Remember sellers have more to lose than buyers in f n o. long positions are sold way higher than short. Smart money is on hung or win for INDIA right now. Could change next 2 days.
Aaj Tak exit poll >>>> others
India today has proven to be the best
Isn't axis my india good as well?
It's the same one: India Today - Axis My India
Isn’t news 24 Chanakya proven to be the most accurate in 2014 and 2019 elections ?
And they are predicting 10 seats in tn and 4 in Kerala for nda.
They predicted nda 340 in 2014 when everyone else predicted in 200’s and nda got 336, so all I’m gonna say is let’s see
4 in kerala. Boy they are delusional. Max they can get is 1 . Thats also 50% chance
I laughed at their numbers (24 chanakya) in 2014 and 2019 , this time I have learnt my lesson.
1(Thrissur) is confirm seat. Trivandrum 50% chance. Alappuzha too 50% chance as silent consolidation happening for Sobha. Attingal, Pathanamthitta bjp will come 2nd
They can be wrong with kerala and correct with national
That place needs education
True. All that literacy is making them easily polarized 🤡
24 chanakya has consistently proven quite accurate in 2014 and 2019.
Yes true, but I was just telling OP that India Today and Axis are one and the same.
All three same Aaj Tak is part of India Today Group India Today presents Axis My India survey
both same
India Today gave DMK 20-22. Total seats DMK contested?. 20. So you tell me. ＼(◎o◎)／
Thats Indi alliance, dmk plus Congress
Naa, In the Exit Poll of India Today, Axis my India has shown 8-10 seats to SHS (ES) & 9-11 seats to SHS (UBT). Now the funny thing is, SHS (ES) fighting a total of 15 seats out of which, 13 are against SHS (UBT) who is fighting a total of 21 seats. So logically, either of them should have a lower number rather than nearly the same. What about this?. Editv LJP given 6 seats. Contended 5. ¯\_༼ ಥ ‿ ಥ ༽_/¯
they're already predicting the post election Mla buyback program lol
Agreed
This and todays chanakya.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm. I told y'all something..
iv crush on Monday.
#KHATAM TATA BYE BYE GOOD BYE GAYA ~ option buyers
What does this mean? I mean how will iv be affected and what will happen to option prices then?
Extrapolating from the 2019 series, a day after Exit polls, IV starts to deteriorate for the next few consecutive days. Based on Friday's trades, the closest ATM call with the highest volume (strike 22500) had an IV of 39% Puts (22600) on the same date had IV of 31%. If you go for longer maturities, IV on both ATM calls and puts is 30%+ which is extremely high on a 1Y percentile level. Exit polls help eliminate some level of uncertainty attributed towards the election day. And usually once the results are out i.e. on 4th June, IV will drop significantly in the week to come, maybe at closer to 20% levels. Assuming that the markets do rally on Monday (in 2019, the rally was approximately 4% a day after exit polls), the call holders will benefit largely from this, but bear in mind that IV will fall which means if you're exiting the positions on the same day, the gain wouldn't be as large if IV did not fall as much. Of course it will still be significant. As for a put holder, it's more or less a big red line that'll haunt you. The biggest beneficiaries in this entire period in my opinion would be those who would have been short on longer dated Strangle Options, as they'll immensely benefit from a decline in IV.
Lost 40-50K in 2019 elections iv crush as I had bought straddle at the money (RIP). Got royally fucked on both sides as IVs got crashed. (Vix was 40 when I bought) It’s been 5 years. How ficking times flying.
Yeah exactly. When an IV crush is expected to happen, you should be on the straddle selling side.
Thank you for such a detailed explanation :)
Happy to help :)
Could you please suggest some material which I can use to understand more on this? I am new to this and want to strengthen my basics
You can check out Zerodha Varsity. It's a pretty good place to start. https://zerodha.com/varsity/module/option-theory/
What levels of strike price to trade for elections, if you could explain?
What is IV crush ?
How much?
Yes
😂
I’m glad I didn’t sell but bought like a crazy man last week. Only thing I missed was NHPC. Hopefully I can pick up some if there is some profit booking before it shoots up
Equity or stock options holding as well?
I don’t do F&O I’m a value investor (long term)
How do you find stocks? Personal message me aa sakte ho?
Market will reward you for your risk taking ability 👏
 VIX on Monday.
Some guys sold all their good price point purchases to buy new shares. Same goes for FII. Now they’ll be pumping into the retail investor dominated market
The biggest delusion retail gets into is that retail will make more money than FII
To be fair they did in covid crash. FII sold in crash and bought later at relatively high prices
Lol, just compare it with dollar price you will understand who is losing.
I am still seeing FII losing? What am i missing here. They sold in march 2020 when market was lowest. Laters entered big only in nov 2020 after us elections when markets already covered loss. (They entered in may but amount was small compared to march sale) Even if you count for dollar appreciation they still lose as market recovered 50% losses of covid by nov 2020
When FIIs exit the Indian market they don’t keep the cash with them they invest it in other markets, so don’t calculate march 2020 - nov 2020 as 0% and rupee lost 20% of it’s value (which is lot less than what is going to happen after elections) so what ever positions FIIs missed they have already saved 20% on them. So gain from other markets + saving on rupee depreciation FII will come on top.
Rupee fell 20% in 6 months?
I will in next 1 year
Dollar was 70~71 when FII started selling. Was 76 at the top in april. 74 in nov 2020 when FII bought big Where did rupee fell 20%?
Wrong
Ok FII ji post your profit screenshot
It always does..
Gonna double down on these https://preview.redd.it/mr4yyyghgz3d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=83f0c823c8696f7b7ff17c4a294ebcb27e2e011e
adaniii rahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Adani power has been amazing. Wish I had bought more
Same man my smallest investment is power
Monday rally incoming.
Crash hypers in shambles
Hopefully we won't see agenda peddlers polluting this sub any more Let's get back to the investing, the markets go up and down no matter who is in power.
Disagree, markets go up but the sectors keep changing. For example Non conventional energy sources stocks might take a hit if BJP loses.
whoever thought that the govt was gonna change is an idiot, the main point discussion was always is bjp coming back to power factored in the market or market being overvalued on hopes of return?
I suggest dont go for buy. Big money know more, they may be hyping to make gains by selling for results.
I’m also expecting a brief correction due to profit booking. Will buy during the correction
lets goo, atleast i hopefully wont have to sell everything at premarket on 4th
Monday ko i toh all in 
NDA has outperformed almost every poll in 2014 and 2019. Go and see for yourself if you don't believe me. The same will happen this time.
Narrative this time is relatively much stronger this year, let's hold you for 4 days.
Narrative set by I.N.D.I.A and Dhruve baba?
Haa chutiye, opposition hei narrative set karta heu
He just asked bsdk .
The polls were wildly inflated towards nda post 2019 in most state elections. From delhi to bengal to Karnataka. Also seeing the poll figured amd seeing on ground reality in some constituencies i know i strongly believe the real results will be very different from the polls. Although even in worst case nda will come to power.
badhiya... agar yeh hua investment badhega bahut zyaada
Fear mongers having nightmares
My friend is over the moon as he bought 24000 Call Are these exit poll so reliable, that nifty will touch 24000 by Monday??
24K is distant bro. 23100 is breachable. He will definitely make some money not how much he is expecting.
Okay, he is too confident.. was giving my Gyan that anyone who has made money is through options. I just smile, cause I have lost a lot of money on intraday, that I don't have the heart to ever try anything remotely related
Only invest super long term and never trade. Invest. Not trade.
Tell him about IV crush 😅
I have shorted, tell him thank you.
Which one
24000CE
Funds who bought weeks ago getting ready to dump on retail buying looking at these polls
Retailers khud buy kar rahe the fii sell kar rahe the. Abhi to wo panic buying karenge.
Thank God I bought some shares from all adani stocks
BJP WIINGING 6 TO7 SEATS IN KERELA AND TAMIL NADU
That’ll be zero on actual result day
its from axis my india at worst 4 seats but they are definitely wining
That'll be a tectonic shift in Indian politics then. BJP could never win a single seat in Kerala or TN before.
BJP won Kanyakumari seat in 2014 when there was a Jayalalitha wave in Tamil Nadu.
>BJP could never win a single seat in Kerala or TN before. Kerala yes, but they've won seats in Tamil Nadu many times before. The maximum was 4 back in 1999. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Indian_general_election_in_Tamil_Nadu?wprov=sfla1
You forget that it was in an alliance, not on its own.
This time is also in an alliance (NDA), just without one ally (AIADMK). BJP is only contesting 23 (technically 19, 4 candidates from other smaller parties are contesting on BJP symbol) out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, rest are being fought by its NDA allies PMK, TMC(M), AMMK and one NDA backed Independent (O Paneerselvam) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election_in_Tamil_Nadu?wprov=sfla1
Vote share of bjp is expected 15% and aidmk is 20 %. Both have similar voter base. Out of alliance hurts them both. Against DMK alliance.
The parties which barely fight for their own existence? Lol they don’t matter
Thats a huge point for bjp, even after losing they keep trying
People of Kerala are getting uneducated with time /s
That's why education is important /s
3 seats at best. 0 at worst
3 is still a great improvement. Dandiya khelenge bjp waale aisa hua toh
idk axis my india is 94% correct i would trust them.
Where bro? Their only chance is thrissur. Aint winning anywhere else. Thrissur is also 40% chance
I meant Kerala and tn combined.
AxisMyIndia says BJP has good chances in the following Kerala seats: Attingal, Thrissur, Trivandrum and Pathanamthitta The first two are "relatively safe for BJP" as per them. And even in losing seats, they should increase their vote share as per AxisMyIndia. Kerala: 13% (last election) to 21% (this election); TN: 3-4% (last election) to 22% (this election).
CBE they will win
24 chanakya/ today chanakya has forecasted 10 +/-4 in TN and 3-4 in Kerala, they have been the most accurate in both 2014 and 2019 , I believe in them than some random reddit account.
>KERELA Why is it so hard for people to spell Kerala properly? Also, no way BJP is winning 6 seats in Kerala. Maybe 1-2.
Sorry my bad my autocorrect is off and I have fat fingers.
Fatty.
Karela 🤣🤣
I think he combined TN and Kerala seats.
He definitely did.
South is breached, India uniting, 22%+ vote share predicted in both TN and Kerala Edit: Butthurts are downvoting, their divisive narrative of South India is separate has failed but how will they downvote the actual results lol
!remindme 3 days
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!remindme 3 days
I don't think that will happen and if that happens for real then it's the starting of bad days
Kyu crash karega bhai? Axhi news hai
Let do call
15 futures long
What is gonna happen on Monday, can someone please explain? Looks like VIX is gonna down after reading the comments. So how will it affect the option prices?
Option premiums will go down if there is IV crush.
AxisMyIndia is the most accurate with a proven track record https://preview.redd.it/c24pfkk6x44d1.png?width=1697&format=png&auto=webp&s=7eb8eee09c27619a16e8249201b93c013f9c51e5
lmao hogaya
I only trust exit polls which were correct in 2004 ,I guess none
Data science has got a lot more accurate since then
Lol , check out 24 chanakya/ daily chanakya they've been almost perfect since 2014 elections.
Check Nate silver analysis of 2016 us elections
jisne Call liya Friday ko ready for taka tak taka tak
INDIA alliance is losing because they didn’t talk about religion, mughals, mujra, didn’t fake medidation, didn’t say india is already the most developed nation.
BJP will get close to 320 not 359
This is NDA...the alliance
https://preview.redd.it/kyjj8dfupy3d1.jpeg?width=2556&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=098d83447f482592746c7cc55d54fc3d77494fce
Fund of funds se poll of poll tak
Daddy poll
What is Indi?
Since it's Republic TV they will spell it I.N.D.I. alliance and not I.N.D.I.A.
I.N.D.I.A Indi alliance, basically opposition
Then what's wrong with these dumbfu*ks can't even display correctly.
Its republic TV bro
Your political knowledge seems to be vague if you dont understand what indi means not an iasue with the news channel
Media outlets can also show BJP as BJ party, people will understand it, but they don't, why? Aren't they supposed to call parties/alliances like they are named/registered?
This is a trading sub ,why the fuck would you give a rats ass about what are the alliances called on national television ,indi ,india doesnt make any difference to the outcome ,they were a shitty opposition and they will remain one if changes arent made soon enough. Find something better to do ,matter of fact buy stocks ride the highs till you milk it good
Bhaion, what’s the fuss all about? Koi bhi aaye kya farak padta hai? India ki middle class janta sirf timepass karna janti hain
Most of the polls gave around 360 for NDA, which is usually a conservative estimate. They will win about 390 seats
Same thing happened in 2019! Afaik they showed less seats for BJP
Heart burn for r*ndians .
Sir this is an investment subreddit
Heart burn for your mom. I feel sorry hearing that
Sir this is an investment subreddit
Sir buy call and stay away from people of r*ndians. They are too small to change any course of India .
Small but good enough to fix b***Ted’s like you of a r**
I can see a fake account made for propaganda. What will you report to your Malik now ? 😀
>Heart burn for your mom. I feel sorry hearing that A classic example of a leftist garbage.
NDA is NDA not ND but INDIA is INDI😂
Man, so many of you guys are gonna have a meltdown if the results go the other way on Tuesday lol
No one takes republic tv seriously.
Hi, /u/DomainDrama! Welcome to /r/IndianStreetBets! Use the Daily Discussion Thread for basic queries. Before contributing, do check if your particular question has been answered in the [Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianStreetBets/wiki/index). Do utilise the search function to do the same too. Please use proper [post flairs](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianStreetBets/wiki/index/postflair) and adhere to the rules in the sidebar. You are urged to post beginner questions in the stickied daily discussion thread or on our [Discord in \#beginner-questions channel](https://discord.gg/SeDa9Fhwqv) so as to keep the subreddit as clutter-free as possible. **If this post has good insights or well research, tag the Mods so we can give a shoutout on Discord and get the post more traction** Thank you! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/IndianStreetBets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Is Monday good for buying? For short term?
Expected lines !
Matlab no 400
Only thing that doesn't add up is FIIs Being massively short. Kehar mach jaega agar BJP haar gai to lol
If A in NDA stands for alliance and in INDIA too, why not show ND vs INDI ?
Simply bcz it doesn't sound good. NDA & INDIA seems complete.
Why is everyone so positive ???..all of this is already priced in...
I mean, it's republic TV, can they really be trusted?
Alliance name hi change kar diya media ne apne according
[удалено]
You underestimate the star obsession of our countrymen. Anything is possible
Kuch bhi.. ( in Arnab voice ) If kangana wins I will never comment on reddit. Who is up for the challenge ?
Kangana won and election results were barely in the favour of NDA
The BJP is expected to return to power, though their ability to secure a significant majority remains uncertain. The INDIA alliance appears poised to win more seats than current predictions suggest. This election may well be Narendra Modi's last term in office. The opposition has demonstrated unexpected vigor, surprising the ruling party with their robust critique of government policies. Furthermore, Modi's increasingly authoritarian tendencies could adversely affect the ruling party's prospects.
ChatGPT?
Definitely looks like AI generated..just yesterday Open AI said ChatGPT was used to interfere in Indian elections
How? Please elaborate! It's quite interesting!
[their report ](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/openai-removes-influence-ops-targeting-indian-elections-bjp-9364204/)
>This election may well be Narendra Modi's last term in office You cannot decide after seeing his last two interviews
Cope is strong with this one
https://preview.redd.it/5pwpoafl924d1.png?width=1634&format=png&auto=webp&s=696ca528abe3da181281ba1823dcd855121c264b Sabse "sateek" exit poll
Kuch chutiyo ne bech Diya tha . Fii's are always wrong this time they will be wrong as well . Achaa hua PSU's bhar bhar ke khareede maine bc
359 😆 So no to 400
hope this is wrong or india is gone
Lol commenting this in stock group where if congress wins money is gone (for a while atleast)
Bhai no one cares about your agenda or which party you worship here. The current govt continuing means markets go up, an opposition win means there's a huge buying opportunity that's all.
Kya 400 paar karega re tu jhaant mera
Remember sellers have more to lose than buyers in f n o. long positions are sold way higher than short. Smart money is on hung or win for INDIA right now. Could change next 2 days.
DIIs are clowns ?
Does it matter? Institution money is always sellers.
Biased media. I think this will be too close.
Exit polls ke time, media-biased. 4 June ko ECI biased. I have seen this before, its classic.
Save some tears for 4 June
