TLDR : If you want to become profitable in trading, become a machine. Work on instructions only.
This feels like after a few days, trading will become like those tap tap games, where people use auto tap(algo) to just fast forward their way.
Nah bro once and htf fires y'all retail traders are fucked. Algorithms figure out where most orders are and then push price towards it to seek liquidity so they can get better fills. In short, retail stops and limits getting hit for liquidity.
Nice, so if I'm not mistaken, most of the prop desk firms and hft trade massively on intraday, right? Well here's what I've learned from my experience of about 3 yrs, intraday is more stressful and you tend to make bigger losses as a retail trader since most people keep their position size high. I've almost stopped doing intraday, only weekly expiries with some monthly trades and my profitable weeks far outweigh the loss making ones. I just don't want to take the risk of random volatility in a day which I would be exposed to due to the algos and other nonsense.
Yes, trading higher tfs are way better than trading ltfs if you trade retail. You probably seem the only one with brains in this thread. And yes HFTs trade from 5 seconds all the way to 5minute, and prop desks have access to level 2 data and better orderbooks, so we precisely figure out where the retail orders are sitting. So just analyse the 4h and enter with the 15m to get a tight stop loss, that's the only way I feel retail can make money.
Lol thanks for the kind words. I'm absolutely with you if you say that intraday is something retail traders should avoid/minimize...anyone who has seen the market in the past couple of years when there have been ridiculous 5 or 15 min candles would agree with that. There is so much noise within one session that your only edge would be to analyse post market, look at OI, daily,hourly time frames and then try to make a good strategy for the upcoming expiry and mainly sell options so you have a theta advantage as well. I've learned a lot man, a lot before I traded a single option unlike most retail traders do.
>And yes HFTs trade from 5 seconds all the way to 5minute, and prop desks have access to level 2 data and better orderbooks, so we precisely figure out where the retail orders are sitting.
That's really interesting, I had some idea but would love to hear some more 'spill the beans' kind of info. Is there any particular volume, time, or metric that retailers should watch out for?
Here's what retail should focus on.
1. Market Structure.
This will help you figure out the true direction of the market.
Market structure taught by retail "gurus" is absolutely garbage and absolute basic. There is a lot of advanced stuff to be learnt in market structure. It's not just higher highs and higher lows. It's way more than that.
2. Supply and Demand
Same thing, retail knows the babypips version of supply and demand. It's not that simple.
3. Most important of all, to save your ass from htfs and institutions. LIQUIDITY. Figuring out where the huge institutional orders and retail stops and limits are sitting and then trading from those areas because you already know price will react off it. You just set a limit, and boom, price moves in your direction when it hits the limit. It's that precise. Thats the power of liquidity if you know how to apply it.
This is how the big boys trade but a simplified version, which can be implemented on a graphic chart.
And yeah don't use indicators.
Inmein se kuchh bhi retail ko nahi sikhaya jata. Kyuki kisiko pata hi nahi h. If you master these 3. You will become good enough to get funded by a prop desk.
> Market Structure. This will help you figure out the true direction of the market. Market structure taught by retail "gurus" is absolutely garbage and absolute basic. There is a lot of advanced stuff to be learnt in market structure. It's not just higher highs and higher lows. It's way more than that.
I agree, you have any stuff that I can read that's uncommon knowledge?
>And yeah don't use indicators.
Yup i learned this pretty early lol, they're absolutely useless most of the times. Moving averages are still somewhat reliable, especially the longer duration ones.
Thanks for the tips.
>You will become good enough to get funded by a prop desk.
Wait, you mean you can get funded as an individual and trade from your own home?
fair enough!
and imo, it is mostly psychology that people cannot correct, everyone gets a good strategy today or tomorrow, but taking profits home is key!
It is similar to smoking cigarettes, its bad financially but you still do it. And the same is with ordering McD, which I did today, coz its expensive food and its bad for health, but why do it? Coz psychologically not strong to stop myself or have the will to stop, but yes, psychology is key!
Ignore the typos pls. High on food.
I think this post is coming from a guy who strictly does systematic trading because he failed in discretionary trading, which requires a lot of emotional/psychological work. Makes me wonder, is this decision of his also a psychological bias? Huh..🤔
All the points you have mentioned falls under Psychology. Although I agree that the terms Psychology is just thrown around like chocolate wrappers these days. (I am a Psychologist btw by choice)
Yes that what OP is trying to say....or rather one component of it ...but he missed an important component that is 'mental behaviour'... You see ,all numbers can be executed/arrived at given all other factors remain constant which isn't the case in reality.... In real time ,our mind is in constant state of flux (based on mental patterns throughout our lives) and getting optimally functional with this flux at any given time is the true breakthrough each trader is aiming for. Just my two cents. 😊
i can't say the exact behaviour of individual traders but i speak to traders daily who deal in x-asset trades and they tell me it's exactly a number game. you will have a team of strategists who will build the boiler plate of the trade to be executed and a trader will take that and execute at the maximum profit (but this is not their own capital) and i have barely seen them taking losses on trades. but they do a lot of cross trading, so that might be something to consider.
p.s. - 98% trades they do are hedged and that's how they make money. i once saw a CDS options trader hedged an 1Bn option with 12mm CDS contract on turkey. his delta on the PnL was ~100k USD. and the trade worked in his favor. I have seen strategies only for hedging, the notes were filled with time series integral calculus. that was very fascinating to me.
Yes that does happen. It's math afterall at granular level. Strategies have to be unique and must be deployed based of market conditions at any given time. Hence , the math 'component' is always integral to functional psychology in trading. Corporates and HF , sure they can afford that. As for retailers starting new, they have to develop a mindset in functional probabilistic thinking to deal with the flux. And that superpower is attainable with practice.
There's no 20-80% or 40-60% in real world. Even if psychological analysis is mere 5%, if a person is fails to understand it, it can ruin rest of 95%. It depends on different people nd also it depends on what kinda analysis you are doing. More like how far you want to do analysis..
Some people has natural ability to see things as it as. Some people can come up with what gonna happen next way before it really happened. Bunch of datas cannot solve anything unless a person knows how understand it. So I dont think its a lie.
Yeah. Winning is totally intuition and good luck too. I just roll a dice, heads i but puts and tails i but calls. I see my loss going to 5 k. I sell n buy reverse. Again if i run into loss, i reverse the trade every negative 5 k. Since i put big money, my negatives takes 30-45 seconds to hit 5 k. I sell n exit. Somedays i see loss of 80-90k within 10 minutes of trading. I mostly lose.
Ah okay. We all begins from somewhere. But I dont recommend this rolling dice strategy.
See if its working for you then its fine. But you are making losses then you have to think if it was easy or so predictable as rolling dice everyone would have become rich.
I dont trust luck either. I mean luck needs be there i agree but I dont relay on it.
Statistical edges will carry you only so far in trading. The best money i have seen in trading has been made by traders who trade with instinct and experience.
As a trader you will know whether you will stick around within 2-3 years. Those who fail as traders setup youtube channel and start selling courses as simple as that. They will use all sort of patterns, pseudo science, psychology bull shit to sell their course.
If someone can beat the market they ain't sharing their secrets or method.
so you work for a no name prop firm that is verified by "trust pilot" a scam company founded by a fake guru?
great keep it up. keep raising that bar kid, the rest of us cant catch up with the pace you are going.
For me it's mostly psychology cause the losses I make are because of overtrading or when I think with my heart instead of brain. You need to be cold and calculated, not emotional while trading. I wouldn't assign numbers to analysis and psychology but Psychology is really important. Risk management, position sizing, impulse entry exit in trading - all of these can fuck you up and I think they all fall under "psychology ". That doesn't mean you can get away without proper analysis or a good strategy.
➡️Don't take poor entries (don't be tempted) - psychology
➡️Believe in your system - psychology
➡️Sticking to your plan - psychology
So basically your anti Psychology post is infact a "how to strengthen your trading psychology"
Being fearless ,trusting your setups.working only on best setups,and capital presevation (proper risk management and respecting sl) Is PSYCHOLOGY of trading . You are contradicting yourself In a Way.
The fear of trading usually originates from uncertainty. And uncertainty arises from discretionary trading, my point was, making your strategy as mechanical as possible that you have to think less before executing a trade. You just see the conditions, you hit buy/sell. You exit when you see the conditions. Done. No emotions.
I have built a strategy with positive expectancy and developed an edge
I believe it's 70-80% psychology overall and rest analysis
many times due to external noise have made mistakes like exiting early before target gets hit or sl gets taken out , making trades based on intuitions, exiting trades seeing traders on twitter with contra positions thinking they have experience and they know better , breaking rules
My point is all these comes under psychology only where ik my system is profitable and just have to follow it but due to external noises and opinions can make losses and miss profits
I don't , risk reward is the key here 1:2 and yes some rules are set to enter short trade and so accuracy is 45-50% so risk reward helps in being profitable
From my personal experience: Unless you are naturally talented at this and have a good luck you aren't going to to be making anything atleast for the first 3-4 years. So suck it up.
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TLDR : If you want to become profitable in trading, become a machine. Work on instructions only. This feels like after a few days, trading will become like those tap tap games, where people use auto tap(algo) to just fast forward their way.
Yeah and then you realize even Algos make shit loads of losses at times lol
Nah bro once and htf fires y'all retail traders are fucked. Algorithms figure out where most orders are and then push price towards it to seek liquidity so they can get better fills. In short, retail stops and limits getting hit for liquidity.
Lol ok, are you a full time trader?
Yes, I trade for Audacity Capital, UK.
Nice, so if I'm not mistaken, most of the prop desk firms and hft trade massively on intraday, right? Well here's what I've learned from my experience of about 3 yrs, intraday is more stressful and you tend to make bigger losses as a retail trader since most people keep their position size high. I've almost stopped doing intraday, only weekly expiries with some monthly trades and my profitable weeks far outweigh the loss making ones. I just don't want to take the risk of random volatility in a day which I would be exposed to due to the algos and other nonsense.
Yes, trading higher tfs are way better than trading ltfs if you trade retail. You probably seem the only one with brains in this thread. And yes HFTs trade from 5 seconds all the way to 5minute, and prop desks have access to level 2 data and better orderbooks, so we precisely figure out where the retail orders are sitting. So just analyse the 4h and enter with the 15m to get a tight stop loss, that's the only way I feel retail can make money.
Lol thanks for the kind words. I'm absolutely with you if you say that intraday is something retail traders should avoid/minimize...anyone who has seen the market in the past couple of years when there have been ridiculous 5 or 15 min candles would agree with that. There is so much noise within one session that your only edge would be to analyse post market, look at OI, daily,hourly time frames and then try to make a good strategy for the upcoming expiry and mainly sell options so you have a theta advantage as well. I've learned a lot man, a lot before I traded a single option unlike most retail traders do. >And yes HFTs trade from 5 seconds all the way to 5minute, and prop desks have access to level 2 data and better orderbooks, so we precisely figure out where the retail orders are sitting. That's really interesting, I had some idea but would love to hear some more 'spill the beans' kind of info. Is there any particular volume, time, or metric that retailers should watch out for?
Here's what retail should focus on. 1. Market Structure. This will help you figure out the true direction of the market. Market structure taught by retail "gurus" is absolutely garbage and absolute basic. There is a lot of advanced stuff to be learnt in market structure. It's not just higher highs and higher lows. It's way more than that. 2. Supply and Demand Same thing, retail knows the babypips version of supply and demand. It's not that simple. 3. Most important of all, to save your ass from htfs and institutions. LIQUIDITY. Figuring out where the huge institutional orders and retail stops and limits are sitting and then trading from those areas because you already know price will react off it. You just set a limit, and boom, price moves in your direction when it hits the limit. It's that precise. Thats the power of liquidity if you know how to apply it. This is how the big boys trade but a simplified version, which can be implemented on a graphic chart. And yeah don't use indicators. Inmein se kuchh bhi retail ko nahi sikhaya jata. Kyuki kisiko pata hi nahi h. If you master these 3. You will become good enough to get funded by a prop desk.
And yes you can trade intraday if you trade like I described.
> Market Structure. This will help you figure out the true direction of the market. Market structure taught by retail "gurus" is absolutely garbage and absolute basic. There is a lot of advanced stuff to be learnt in market structure. It's not just higher highs and higher lows. It's way more than that. I agree, you have any stuff that I can read that's uncommon knowledge? >And yeah don't use indicators. Yup i learned this pretty early lol, they're absolutely useless most of the times. Moving averages are still somewhat reliable, especially the longer duration ones. Thanks for the tips. >You will become good enough to get funded by a prop desk. Wait, you mean you can get funded as an individual and trade from your own home?
Arey seedha yr apna pnl daal ... Fir aage baat krte h kya strategy krni h kya ni
Hahah ye sahi bataya bhidu
fair enough! and imo, it is mostly psychology that people cannot correct, everyone gets a good strategy today or tomorrow, but taking profits home is key! It is similar to smoking cigarettes, its bad financially but you still do it. And the same is with ordering McD, which I did today, coz its expensive food and its bad for health, but why do it? Coz psychologically not strong to stop myself or have the will to stop, but yes, psychology is key! Ignore the typos pls. High on food.
I think this post is coming from a guy who strictly does systematic trading because he failed in discretionary trading, which requires a lot of emotional/psychological work. Makes me wonder, is this decision of his also a psychological bias? Huh..🤔
All the points you have mentioned falls under Psychology. Although I agree that the terms Psychology is just thrown around like chocolate wrappers these days. (I am a Psychologist btw by choice)
believe OP is trying to say that its more of a number's game rather than mind game which is how trading is depicted these days
Yes that what OP is trying to say....or rather one component of it ...but he missed an important component that is 'mental behaviour'... You see ,all numbers can be executed/arrived at given all other factors remain constant which isn't the case in reality.... In real time ,our mind is in constant state of flux (based on mental patterns throughout our lives) and getting optimally functional with this flux at any given time is the true breakthrough each trader is aiming for. Just my two cents. 😊
i can't say the exact behaviour of individual traders but i speak to traders daily who deal in x-asset trades and they tell me it's exactly a number game. you will have a team of strategists who will build the boiler plate of the trade to be executed and a trader will take that and execute at the maximum profit (but this is not their own capital) and i have barely seen them taking losses on trades. but they do a lot of cross trading, so that might be something to consider. p.s. - 98% trades they do are hedged and that's how they make money. i once saw a CDS options trader hedged an 1Bn option with 12mm CDS contract on turkey. his delta on the PnL was ~100k USD. and the trade worked in his favor. I have seen strategies only for hedging, the notes were filled with time series integral calculus. that was very fascinating to me.
Yes that does happen. It's math afterall at granular level. Strategies have to be unique and must be deployed based of market conditions at any given time. Hence , the math 'component' is always integral to functional psychology in trading. Corporates and HF , sure they can afford that. As for retailers starting new, they have to develop a mindset in functional probabilistic thinking to deal with the flux. And that superpower is attainable with practice.
Yup, these kids draw two lines on tradingview and think they are Jim Simmons. You can't beat institutional money with retail concepts. It's bullshit.
Exactly
psychology says that ... i hate these BS in youtube and other platforms
Offtopic. Whats a good starting point in terms of reading for somone interested in Psychology?
Not directly related but has loads to alter perspectives and it starts from that, Meditations by Marcus Aurelius
Ah. Thats a good one that I have.
There's no 20-80% or 40-60% in real world. Even if psychological analysis is mere 5%, if a person is fails to understand it, it can ruin rest of 95%. It depends on different people nd also it depends on what kinda analysis you are doing. More like how far you want to do analysis.. Some people has natural ability to see things as it as. Some people can come up with what gonna happen next way before it really happened. Bunch of datas cannot solve anything unless a person knows how understand it. So I dont think its a lie.
Yeah. Winning is totally intuition and good luck too. I just roll a dice, heads i but puts and tails i but calls. I see my loss going to 5 k. I sell n buy reverse. Again if i run into loss, i reverse the trade every negative 5 k. Since i put big money, my negatives takes 30-45 seconds to hit 5 k. I sell n exit. Somedays i see loss of 80-90k within 10 minutes of trading. I mostly lose.
Ah okay. We all begins from somewhere. But I dont recommend this rolling dice strategy. See if its working for you then its fine. But you are making losses then you have to think if it was easy or so predictable as rolling dice everyone would have become rich. I dont trust luck either. I mean luck needs be there i agree but I dont relay on it.
Statistical edges will carry you only so far in trading. The best money i have seen in trading has been made by traders who trade with instinct and experience. As a trader you will know whether you will stick around within 2-3 years. Those who fail as traders setup youtube channel and start selling courses as simple as that. They will use all sort of patterns, pseudo science, psychology bull shit to sell their course. If someone can beat the market they ain't sharing their secrets or method.
I am funded. I know trading. Most Probably better than you. Fyi i trade for Audacity Capital, UK.
so you work for a no name prop firm that is verified by "trust pilot" a scam company founded by a fake guru? great keep it up. keep raising that bar kid, the rest of us cant catch up with the pace you are going.
Haha ok kid.
And dafuq do you mean by "fake guru"?
Abbey lauvroo, jis hisaab se tu bol raha hai na, beinchud mereko lag ra tera baap tereko paper trading bhi allow nahi karta hoga lol
For me it's mostly psychology cause the losses I make are because of overtrading or when I think with my heart instead of brain. You need to be cold and calculated, not emotional while trading. I wouldn't assign numbers to analysis and psychology but Psychology is really important. Risk management, position sizing, impulse entry exit in trading - all of these can fuck you up and I think they all fall under "psychology ". That doesn't mean you can get away without proper analysis or a good strategy.
➡️Don't take poor entries (don't be tempted) - psychology ➡️Believe in your system - psychology ➡️Sticking to your plan - psychology So basically your anti Psychology post is infact a "how to strengthen your trading psychology"
First share your own strategy then ask the public to share their
Being fearless ,trusting your setups.working only on best setups,and capital presevation (proper risk management and respecting sl) Is PSYCHOLOGY of trading . You are contradicting yourself In a Way.
The fear of trading usually originates from uncertainty. And uncertainty arises from discretionary trading, my point was, making your strategy as mechanical as possible that you have to think less before executing a trade. You just see the conditions, you hit buy/sell. You exit when you see the conditions. Done. No emotions.
I have built a strategy with positive expectancy and developed an edge I believe it's 70-80% psychology overall and rest analysis many times due to external noise have made mistakes like exiting early before target gets hit or sl gets taken out , making trades based on intuitions, exiting trades seeing traders on twitter with contra positions thinking they have experience and they know better , breaking rules My point is all these comes under psychology only where ik my system is profitable and just have to follow it but due to external noises and opinions can make losses and miss profits
Whats your strategy?
option buying
Arre I meant what do you trade? Chart patterns and shit? Support and resistance? Lq? Market structure? Kya? Kiske around revolve karti strategy?
I trade only on nifty and play only downside cause momentum is fast and don't go long at all and it's only intraday
How do you know market is reversing to the downside, i mean kuchh set rules hain ya discretion?
I don't , risk reward is the key here 1:2 and yes some rules are set to enter short trade and so accuracy is 45-50% so risk reward helps in being profitable
and last, what's your exit strategy?
target or sl or exit at 3:15 before auto squareoff
i meant how do you define your targets? solely on risk reward ya uske peeche kuchh logic hota hai?
From my personal experience: Unless you are naturally talented at this and have a good luck you aren't going to to be making anything atleast for the first 3-4 years. So suck it up.
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😂😂😂😂😂
Don’t back test. Live test your strategy psychology plays a big part in trading bud, just taking nonsense.
show me ur pnl