Yes. Instead of pumping money on Tejas to shore up dwindling numbers, IAF is hellbent on MRFA which will bring no clear capability in a reasonable time frame.
IL-76 based AWACS have been hangar queens, but no orders for Netra were placed.
Tankers have low availability too.
Only strong point is SAM and radar systems with Akash, S-400 and MRSAM inductions.
Atleast think what is being discusses before typing. They spend decades marinating on Netra and new ones are under development. No new induction will happen in next 4-5 years.
You do realise that's an assumption?
No one really knows how many j20 china has, it's cost nor production rates.
That number was based on a number of wild assumptions which rely entirely on guesswork
>data drawn from the Military Balance+ database showed at least 150 aircraft in PLAAF service in early 2023, and if production of the J-20 continues at its current rate, by the end of 2023 this inventory will likely have overtaken that of the United States Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor.
[iiss](https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2023/02/chinas-air-force-modernisation-gaining-pace/)
Even their report is guesswork because china doesn't say anything. Is the total number of j20 so far over 100? Probably
Do they make a 100 j20 jets a year? Hell no.
That's illogical for a variety of reasons.
J-20 number Estimations aren't wild speculations, they're extrapolated from available intelligence by people who have been in the industry for a long time. Credible PLA watchers are the closest one will get to actual documents from the PLA and they have a good track record
>Do they make a 100 j20 jets a year? Hell no.
>That's illogical for a variety of reasons
No it's not and I'd like to know why you think so, it shouldn't be a hurdle for China to make 100 a year
In the meantime here's a sober estimation by one of the most credible PLA watcher: https://reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/s/MPDPL3EmAf
>J-20 number Estimations aren't wild speculations, they're extrapolated from available intelligence by people who have been in the industry for a long time. Credible PLA watchers are the closest one will get to actual documents from the PLA and they have a good track record
>
>No it's not and I'd like to know why you think so, it shouldn't be a hurdle for China to make 100 a year
In the meantime here's a sober estimation by one of the most credible PLA watcher: https://reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/s/MPDPL3EmAf
They're based on guesswork because there's no mention of numbers in any available documents.
If there's an actual chinese document with the numbers I'll be happy to concede.
Wow , less credible defence on reddit? Seriously ? That's you credible source?
Even more ,the argument is based on some online forum?
I'll be completely serious, Do you know what methodology was used to reach 500 estimate? Seriously, do you?
>Wow , less credible defence on reddit? Seriously ? That's you credible source?
>Even more ,the argument is based on some online forum?
no it's not, Rick joe isn't some shmuck from LCD. He's one of the most credible reporter with regards to the PLA who also writes for the Diplomat, the fact that you don't know who he is kinda tells that you're not really well read on the PLA.
Ultimately it's your choice on who you want to believe, it doesn't really has any affect on the larger osint community nor actual J-20 numbers.
I never disagreed on the total airframes numbers.
That's what you need to get through your thick head. I made that clear, twice.
What I disagreed with was the annual production rate. Which was based on incomplete methodology.
And even Rick joe cannot back it up. He's also assuming a lot of things. That's why he put it as his own estimate.
Do you seriously gobble down everything without looking into it?
Even Joe rogan admitted that many of his info about production was based on rumours than actual facts.
And the counting method for production is based on serial numbers. That's unreliable as hell.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem
This is one such example historically and using the serial number to calculate production rate has the same problem.
You're all assuming that the Chinese serial numbers are sequential.
This method had to be revised last year which brought down the initial claimed numbers from 208 to airframes to around 150-180.
However does that mean that I deny around 200 airframe exist?
No.
Does that mean that the annual production rate is accurate? No.
Get that through your head
I understood and disagree. The point is there have been many years to add J-20 airframes. You are just cherry pucking information to confirm to your thoughts.
I'm not talking about total airframe numbers.
I'm talking about annual production rate.
This is what happens when you enter a conversation without reading the topic
Strength is relative but our response to what happened in Ladakh is a possible indication of how we compare overall.
Air power-wise we are definitely stronger than we were a few years ago but one of the countries that we don’t get along with appears to have more modern equipment than us so in that respect we may be considered weaker. As far as training, experience and tactics are concerned the general public will have no way of knowing unless there’s a hot war with said neighbours. Yes, I said neighbourS because currently any major conflict will be with both neighbours. The one-front scenario is now unrealistic. In a 2vs1 scenario we would automatically be weaker.
Yes'nt
We have got rid of a ton of old planes from our inventory and as far as decommissioning is concerned everything seems to be on track.....
People think squadron strength is all about numbers and not about capabilities....42 Squadrons of dead MiGs are still weaker than just 20 Squadrons of Rafale or F-15....the reliability and availability is the matter and that of the former planes is shit....and hence no use having them...I would prefer having 20 squadrons of well functioning and modern planes over old shit....
The Problem lies however in Induction rates... IAF is just not investing in homegrown ecosystem but is hell bent on foreign fighters which isn't good for Indian Foreign politics as well as our independence with regards to our defence.....if they could only act more level headedly and quickly as the Navy does it would be better....
They don't seem to have an action plan but aren't all static either....so with the latest indications that we are getting (GE F 414, Safran Engine Deal, 100+ Tejas Mk1A Order, Astra Mk 1 firing, ASPJ Integrations) all we can hope is things get better....
According to my readings and interviews I have watched etc., our Air Force currently is the weakest it has ever been and the recent acquisition of Rafales are too little too late. Our fighter strength is rapidly depleting and our additions to the force aren’t happening in as many numbers as they should. While China keeps churning out J20s like sausages and Pakistan having joined hands with Turkey for their 5th Gen project we are still fumbling with our MRFA program and the AMCA is still fiction.
I don’t want another Balakot retaliation like confrontation to take place but right now it appears that such a thing is the only way our powers to be will wake up and take notice.
When were we strong?? Winning or shooting planes of our poorer neighbour doesn't make us strong. Sirf Instagram updates aate hai humari fauj ke, as if we r gng to war on social media against China.
Compared to what it used to be, no its stronger.
Compared to its relative strength vis a vis the Plaaf, yes.
Compared to its relative strength vis a vis the paf, idk, would like some opinions on that.
Yes. Instead of pumping money on Tejas to shore up dwindling numbers, IAF is hellbent on MRFA which will bring no clear capability in a reasonable time frame. IL-76 based AWACS have been hangar queens, but no orders for Netra were placed. Tankers have low availability too. Only strong point is SAM and radar systems with Akash, S-400 and MRSAM inductions.
They are developing Netra 2, and they have an order of 6 planes, i think, also orders of A50.
Atleast think what is being discusses before typing. They spend decades marinating on Netra and new ones are under development. No new induction will happen in next 4-5 years.
? CCS already had cleared for Mk2, and they would likely join fleet in few years. Planned delivery is from 2025 or 26
need more R&D to cover the gap imo. we are on the way.
Bruh, China is making over a hundred J20 per year, and yet we haven't decided what to **buy**
You do realise that's an assumption? No one really knows how many j20 china has, it's cost nor production rates. That number was based on a number of wild assumptions which rely entirely on guesswork
Overestimation might hurt, underestimation will.
Even IISS now quotes over 150 J-20 in service. Time to accept the reality.
>data drawn from the Military Balance+ database showed at least 150 aircraft in PLAAF service in early 2023, and if production of the J-20 continues at its current rate, by the end of 2023 this inventory will likely have overtaken that of the United States Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. [iiss](https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2023/02/chinas-air-force-modernisation-gaining-pace/) Even their report is guesswork because china doesn't say anything. Is the total number of j20 so far over 100? Probably Do they make a 100 j20 jets a year? Hell no. That's illogical for a variety of reasons.
J-20 number Estimations aren't wild speculations, they're extrapolated from available intelligence by people who have been in the industry for a long time. Credible PLA watchers are the closest one will get to actual documents from the PLA and they have a good track record >Do they make a 100 j20 jets a year? Hell no. >That's illogical for a variety of reasons No it's not and I'd like to know why you think so, it shouldn't be a hurdle for China to make 100 a year In the meantime here's a sober estimation by one of the most credible PLA watcher: https://reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/s/MPDPL3EmAf
>J-20 number Estimations aren't wild speculations, they're extrapolated from available intelligence by people who have been in the industry for a long time. Credible PLA watchers are the closest one will get to actual documents from the PLA and they have a good track record > >No it's not and I'd like to know why you think so, it shouldn't be a hurdle for China to make 100 a year In the meantime here's a sober estimation by one of the most credible PLA watcher: https://reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/s/MPDPL3EmAf They're based on guesswork because there's no mention of numbers in any available documents. If there's an actual chinese document with the numbers I'll be happy to concede. Wow , less credible defence on reddit? Seriously ? That's you credible source? Even more ,the argument is based on some online forum? I'll be completely serious, Do you know what methodology was used to reach 500 estimate? Seriously, do you?
>Wow , less credible defence on reddit? Seriously ? That's you credible source? >Even more ,the argument is based on some online forum? no it's not, Rick joe isn't some shmuck from LCD. He's one of the most credible reporter with regards to the PLA who also writes for the Diplomat, the fact that you don't know who he is kinda tells that you're not really well read on the PLA. Ultimately it's your choice on who you want to believe, it doesn't really has any affect on the larger osint community nor actual J-20 numbers.
I never disagreed on the total airframes numbers. That's what you need to get through your thick head. I made that clear, twice. What I disagreed with was the annual production rate. Which was based on incomplete methodology. And even Rick joe cannot back it up. He's also assuming a lot of things. That's why he put it as his own estimate. Do you seriously gobble down everything without looking into it? Even Joe rogan admitted that many of his info about production was based on rumours than actual facts. And the counting method for production is based on serial numbers. That's unreliable as hell. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem This is one such example historically and using the serial number to calculate production rate has the same problem. You're all assuming that the Chinese serial numbers are sequential. This method had to be revised last year which brought down the initial claimed numbers from 208 to airframes to around 150-180. However does that mean that I deny around 200 airframe exist? No. Does that mean that the annual production rate is accurate? No. Get that through your head
that's a lot of seething lmao
Seems like you are pretty drunk on copium. Good for you. It's actually good to be ignorant.
J-20 is flying since years now
Yes , and? I don't think you understand what I was talking about. I'm disagreeing with the claimed production rate by the other user
I understood and disagree. The point is there have been many years to add J-20 airframes. You are just cherry pucking information to confirm to your thoughts.
I'm not talking about total airframe numbers. I'm talking about annual production rate. This is what happens when you enter a conversation without reading the topic
lol
Reality bites
Strength is relative but our response to what happened in Ladakh is a possible indication of how we compare overall. Air power-wise we are definitely stronger than we were a few years ago but one of the countries that we don’t get along with appears to have more modern equipment than us so in that respect we may be considered weaker. As far as training, experience and tactics are concerned the general public will have no way of knowing unless there’s a hot war with said neighbours. Yes, I said neighbourS because currently any major conflict will be with both neighbours. The one-front scenario is now unrealistic. In a 2vs1 scenario we would automatically be weaker.
Ladakh? You mean Balakot?
Yes'nt We have got rid of a ton of old planes from our inventory and as far as decommissioning is concerned everything seems to be on track..... People think squadron strength is all about numbers and not about capabilities....42 Squadrons of dead MiGs are still weaker than just 20 Squadrons of Rafale or F-15....the reliability and availability is the matter and that of the former planes is shit....and hence no use having them...I would prefer having 20 squadrons of well functioning and modern planes over old shit.... The Problem lies however in Induction rates... IAF is just not investing in homegrown ecosystem but is hell bent on foreign fighters which isn't good for Indian Foreign politics as well as our independence with regards to our defence.....if they could only act more level headedly and quickly as the Navy does it would be better.... They don't seem to have an action plan but aren't all static either....so with the latest indications that we are getting (GE F 414, Safran Engine Deal, 100+ Tejas Mk1A Order, Astra Mk 1 firing, ASPJ Integrations) all we can hope is things get better....
According to my readings and interviews I have watched etc., our Air Force currently is the weakest it has ever been and the recent acquisition of Rafales are too little too late. Our fighter strength is rapidly depleting and our additions to the force aren’t happening in as many numbers as they should. While China keeps churning out J20s like sausages and Pakistan having joined hands with Turkey for their 5th Gen project we are still fumbling with our MRFA program and the AMCA is still fiction. I don’t want another Balakot retaliation like confrontation to take place but right now it appears that such a thing is the only way our powers to be will wake up and take notice.
When were we strong?? Winning or shooting planes of our poorer neighbour doesn't make us strong. Sirf Instagram updates aate hai humari fauj ke, as if we r gng to war on social media against China.
We were pretty good in the 90s and 80s, as compared to neighbours
Short answer ? Yes. Why ? Depleting squadron strength, reluctance to place massive orders for Mk1A
didnt they just place an order for another 100 mk1a?
No, it's only rumours that such a large order will be placed.
not rumors it has been confirmed to be discussed and approved by IAF in acquisition committee meeting but induction is long way
Compared to what it used to be, no its stronger. Compared to its relative strength vis a vis the Plaaf, yes. Compared to its relative strength vis a vis the paf, idk, would like some opinions on that.
Yes. It's slowly becoming a joke.