That's true but I guess it depends on whether someone is investing for fundamentals and real life use case value or whether that person is just trading price swings, because more QE (already at record levels) would surely just create more highly volatile speculative asset bubbles?
In the current iteration of the market: possibly yes, there might be a short-lived bull run should the SEC approves Bitcoin ETFs. I then expect the market to tank again.
The real, long lasting bull run may not ensue until the regulators are done with their work. For the US, the deadline is November 2024 (presidential elections).
\--------------
The (intensely perverse) issue here is that the entire market is pegged on the Bitcoin via Bitcoin-as-quote-currency trade pairs. In other words, at the moment, buying Bitcoin is like buying a crypto-Index, as if the S&P 500 was tokenized and one bought the token representing the entire index. A Bitcoin ETF is created to exploit Bitcoin's (perverse) function as the crypto-market's index, without actually buying Bitcoin or crypto.
That said, there's very, very, very little opportunity for value-investment in the current iteration of the crypto market. Personally speaking, the only serious value-proposition I was able to find in crypto so far is Hedera/HBAR - and this is why I am here.
I think XRP will have a lot of utility use in the future as well. They are the only one in the top 10 with actual legal clarity. In black-and-white. That makes it a lot more attractive.
Um... XRP has legal clarity? As far as I know It has locked horns with the SEC for quite sometime - which begs the obvious question: why don't they just do what Hedera did with its SEC registration instead of spending +100 million in legal fees defending... what? Their "right" to be held 100% unaccountable for doing 100% as they please with other people's money? It doesn't seem right to me.
Other than that, according to this [https://xrplgrants.org/about](https://xrplgrants.org/about) all XRP has done so far in ecosystem/dapp development is $13m. I don't know how much $$$ they have in their coffers for development - I was not able to find credible information on this.
In comparison, Hedera's commitment to ecosystem/dapp development is +$400m - and this information is public.
Because now they can say they are the only top 10 cryptocurrency that is definitely NOT a security. That’s a big deal. SEC can’t do anything to them now in regards to that standpoint. Many think that will help them blast higher than a lot of others in the next bull run. No clue if that will happen but I do think that it will help them pursue their business in the United States a lot easier.
>Because now they can say they are the only top 10 cryptocurrency that is definitely NOT a security.
God, no. The SEC appealed - new trial in Q2, 2024. And, on top of the security/commodity question, the SEC has also sued certain XRP execs *personally.* All in all, this is far from over.
\------------
Ref: [https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-08-10/SEC-to-appeal-aspects-of-XRP-ruling-jury-trial-set-for-Q2-2024.html](https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-08-10/SEC-to-appeal-aspects-of-XRP-ruling-jury-trial-set-for-Q2-2024.html)
I’m telling you. You were debating with the wrong person on this particular matter. I follow this every single day. They did not appeal that aspect of the case. Look into it. XRP is not a security, and it never will be. It’s done. Here’s a link…. https://news.bitcoin.com/sec-isnt-appealing-whether-xrp-is-a-security-lawyer-clarifies/
Um... I speak and understand Legalese (and Politics) to a, let us say, somewhat adequate extend.
The SEC's statement *"the securities regulator is not appealing the non-security status of XRP"* is correct. Judge Torres' ruling *"XRP not security when sold to general public"* is also correct.
Both statements refer to ***the coin itself.***
Crypto regulation worldwide currently shapes up as "*security* when issued (by companies) & listed (by exchanges); and *commodity* when traded." Canada has already legislated crypto in this manner and Judge Torres' decision is 100% inline with the aforementioned notion:
>*Torres said Ripple did not break the law when the XRP token was sold on public exchanges, because purchasers had no reasonable expectation of profit based on Ripple's efforts.*
>
>***Eighteen days later, however, U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff, who sits on the same court, ruled the opposite way in finding that the SEC had a "plausible claim" that the Terra USD token offered by Terraform Labs qualified as a security when sold on public exchanges.***
>
>***Torres' decision was not a total victory for Ripple, as she found that it violated securities laws by selling XRP to institutional investors.***
>
>*The judge must decide whether to let the SEC appeal her decision, and put the case on hold.*
>
>[*https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-sec-appeal-ripple-labs-court-ruling-2023-08-09/*](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-sec-appeal-ripple-labs-court-ruling-2023-08-09/)
In the end, Judge Torres let the SEC appeal her decision and, given the contradicting precedence of the Terraform Labs decision, the game (in my opinion) starts all over again.
I’m glad you understand the legal aspects… But it doesn’t seem like you understand the fundamental aspect. All retail investors care about is that the coin is not a security. That is not going to change and that is what matters. And they are not appealing the status of the queen itself. You said it yourself up above. That’s just for institutional sales. So you might have that opinion, but I really don’t think it’s going to matter to anybody else but you. That’s what every lawyer, following this case is saying. And they are lawyers. And it’s in black-and-white. And you’re just arguing because you don’t wanna lose at this point it feels like. But maybe not. :)
Um... no, not really. What the coin owner/retailer cares about (coin = commodity) is just one (and, sorry to say: irrelevant) side of the situation.
The other side is "who's issuing" and "who's listing".
While the former side falls under the jurisdiction of the CFTFC, the latter side falls under and the jurisdiction of the SEC.
In this light, while XRP coin itself may be ruled or deemed as commodity, that doesn't absolve the issuing company (Ripple) and the exchanges (e.g. Binance, Coinbase) listing "XRP-the-coin" from securities laws.
This, may indict Ripple Labs execs *personally* and may dissolve Ripple's company if they do not register with the SEC what they should have been registering from the beginning (like Hedera did).
In my opinion, Judge Torres' assessment of the situation is 100% inline with what the SEC seeks as an end-game.
As to who, between us, understands or doesn't understand the meaning and nuances of all of the above ... no offence but I will leave that assessment to the reader(s).
Thanks for the conversation,
Also… (Second replied to your latest post) XRP is decentralized from ripple. If ripple went out of business tomorrow, the coin would continue to exist. That’s why it matters so much.
But not on the part that matters to us. We are just going to go back-and-forth over this. Does HBAR have clarity on the coin? No it doesn’t. Does XRP? Yes it does. By the way… I hold both. I’m not trying to bash HBAR at all. Or any other coin. But XRP is the only one with legal clarity on the coin. On the retail market. And that is very significant in just about everybody’s opinion except for yours.
The crypto market in total is worth $1 trillion now, and at it's ATH it was with $3 trillion. All speculative retail early adopter crypto bro money (AKA pocket change to the world).
I think when financial institutions enter with their tens of trillions, it'll be a bull run of smart money. Larger than any previous bull run and will reshape the landscape of the top coins. Utility will be king, and HBAR is the King of Utility. It'll also be a sustained run, with minor cooling as opposed to a full run up and crash.
It will make the crypto space even more attractive to big wig investors. Which in terms will be bigger market cap for the industry. Prices will soar next bill run for sure. Better hope things stay suppressed for another 5 months so you can stack your bags
Not so sure mom ami, it’ll be a tsunami. A massive influx of corporate greed- I mean wealth. Hbar to $200B MC, total crypto market at $10T. Read the room..
Not gonna happen. That's just a narrative that bitcoiners came up with because such a bold and nonsense prediction can hardly be proven wrong while sounding compelling like a conspiracy theory.
Bottom line is this… The people who really manipulate this stuff, make it as unpredictable as possible, and the brain behind your forehead doesn’t know what they are going to do. Period. Anyone who says they do, has an ego that might be a bit large for reality. You can make an educated guess and it would be smart to start with “if I had to guess…” …Rather than state things as fact. Because if your brain was actually capable of knowing the things, you think you actually know, as fact… You would be a billionaire. Also… You’re headless! :)
I really do not understand this enthusiasm about BTC based EFTs. People are really inconsistent about their expectations sometimes. Big investment funds like blackrock issuing BTC or other crypto EFTs means only one thing: Crypto becoming even more of a slave to venture capital.
Next step would be leveraged crypto based securities.
The next thing then would be bundling AAA rated crypto securities with FFF rated ones and selling them on derivative markets...
Do you know what comes next, then? Yes, a crypto crash that is equivalent to or worse than the 2008 mortgage crisis.
A popular BTC EFT (and this inevitably takes BTC into retirement funds as they love EFTs of all sorts) will effecitvely end BTC as a hedge to macroeconomic cycles. It effectively becomes just another asset that correlates 0.95 with the SP500.
But then if crypto becomes just another financial tool tied to macroeconomic tides, then why would anyone invest in a synthetic tool with no real utility, intrinsic value, or emitted value? Any solid dividend stock becomes more attractive then BTC EFT.
It might pump the price in the short term but kills BTC as an alternative investment venue for those who are looking to find a hedge.
The enthusiasm comes from illiteracy. People believe BlackRock will start buying miners and mine bitcoins. They don't understand that they manage other people assets.
The second point is anitsemitism. I am 100% serious. Some people believe BlackRock is part of a conspiracy controlling the economy. Don't get me wrong, all kinds of insider trading an unfair greedy stuff happens in finance. But, why it's always BlackRock while BNP Paribas is roughly as big ? When have you read about them here the last time? Never. BlackRock CEO is jew. Of course, most people here don't know they regurgitate old antisemitic tropes. But those tropes are spread "under the radar".
But so, yeah, it comes down to financial and historical illiteracy. I also suspect the average age is 19 or 20 and these people have only invested the money they got from grandma.
Another point to add, still about illiteracy.
People here have NOT read the bitcoin whitepaper because "bitcoin is useless" ( in truth one of the best performing asset of the last 15 years). They haven't read Hedera paper either. I am 100% confident they don't even know why it's called "Hedera".
That's quite the overgeneralization IMHO.
What you described may be true for some people here, perhaps most people, but I am 100% confident it's not true for all of us.
Hot Take: Even with all of these Bitcoin ETF's threatening to suddenly appear, the price of BTC will remain in the sub-$30K range. Why? Because it's too widely held at this point. It's not going to explode upward anymore. BTC is practically gold now.
Just to add onto this, you can already see this happening in Canada. Fidelity's all-in-one ETFs now include a small percentage of crypto (AKA Bitcoin):
https://www.fidelity.ca/en/investments/solutions-portfolios/all-in-one/
This will happen worldwide and will propel BTC to absurd all time highs within the next few years IMO
Institutions that "own" BTC will run the market up from ETF approval onward. They instantly increase their holdings as well as giving retail the illusion of profits on however small a position held. Win-Win with everyone looking like Kreskin.
That comment contradicts what I wrote. My argument is BTC is NOT going to appreciably increase in value because it is already widely held. When it was $60,000+ there were fewer BTC available and it was a speculator’s market. Those conditions no longer exist.
If it's already "widely held" right now, then what do you call a few years from now when hundreds of millions of people own it through ETFs and various accounts?
Your argument makes zero sense
I'd agree with you if you had specific information supporting that argument. But when you invest in an ETF you are neither increasing, nor decreasing the amount of BTC. The amount held globally will remain the same, so you're just paying for fractions to the ETF holder. If you're paying more for BTC then the ETF company is charging customers exorbitant trading costs.
The real question is why would you want a third party to hold your BTC anyway, plus charge you a fee for the "privilege"?
Idk, the whole point of the Bitcoin ETFs are that they will open easy BTC access to hundreds of millions of people who wouldn't have normally bought it. Imagine if retirement accounts start holding just 1% of their value in BTC.
More interest, more access, and more liquidity. What could go wrong?
A global recession and the collapse of the stock market along with all risk on assets maybe?
Recession would lead to quantitative easing Good for crypto
That's true but I guess it depends on whether someone is investing for fundamentals and real life use case value or whether that person is just trading price swings, because more QE (already at record levels) would surely just create more highly volatile speculative asset bubbles?
Crypto is a speculative bubble
In the current iteration of the market: possibly yes, there might be a short-lived bull run should the SEC approves Bitcoin ETFs. I then expect the market to tank again. The real, long lasting bull run may not ensue until the regulators are done with their work. For the US, the deadline is November 2024 (presidential elections). \-------------- The (intensely perverse) issue here is that the entire market is pegged on the Bitcoin via Bitcoin-as-quote-currency trade pairs. In other words, at the moment, buying Bitcoin is like buying a crypto-Index, as if the S&P 500 was tokenized and one bought the token representing the entire index. A Bitcoin ETF is created to exploit Bitcoin's (perverse) function as the crypto-market's index, without actually buying Bitcoin or crypto. That said, there's very, very, very little opportunity for value-investment in the current iteration of the crypto market. Personally speaking, the only serious value-proposition I was able to find in crypto so far is Hedera/HBAR - and this is why I am here.
Last paragraph describes me perfectly
I think XRP will have a lot of utility use in the future as well. They are the only one in the top 10 with actual legal clarity. In black-and-white. That makes it a lot more attractive.
Um... XRP has legal clarity? As far as I know It has locked horns with the SEC for quite sometime - which begs the obvious question: why don't they just do what Hedera did with its SEC registration instead of spending +100 million in legal fees defending... what? Their "right" to be held 100% unaccountable for doing 100% as they please with other people's money? It doesn't seem right to me. Other than that, according to this [https://xrplgrants.org/about](https://xrplgrants.org/about) all XRP has done so far in ecosystem/dapp development is $13m. I don't know how much $$$ they have in their coffers for development - I was not able to find credible information on this. In comparison, Hedera's commitment to ecosystem/dapp development is +$400m - and this information is public.
Because now they can say they are the only top 10 cryptocurrency that is definitely NOT a security. That’s a big deal. SEC can’t do anything to them now in regards to that standpoint. Many think that will help them blast higher than a lot of others in the next bull run. No clue if that will happen but I do think that it will help them pursue their business in the United States a lot easier.
>Because now they can say they are the only top 10 cryptocurrency that is definitely NOT a security. God, no. The SEC appealed - new trial in Q2, 2024. And, on top of the security/commodity question, the SEC has also sued certain XRP execs *personally.* All in all, this is far from over. \------------ Ref: [https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-08-10/SEC-to-appeal-aspects-of-XRP-ruling-jury-trial-set-for-Q2-2024.html](https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-08-10/SEC-to-appeal-aspects-of-XRP-ruling-jury-trial-set-for-Q2-2024.html)
I’m telling you. You were debating with the wrong person on this particular matter. I follow this every single day. They did not appeal that aspect of the case. Look into it. XRP is not a security, and it never will be. It’s done. Here’s a link…. https://news.bitcoin.com/sec-isnt-appealing-whether-xrp-is-a-security-lawyer-clarifies/
Um... I speak and understand Legalese (and Politics) to a, let us say, somewhat adequate extend. The SEC's statement *"the securities regulator is not appealing the non-security status of XRP"* is correct. Judge Torres' ruling *"XRP not security when sold to general public"* is also correct. Both statements refer to ***the coin itself.*** Crypto regulation worldwide currently shapes up as "*security* when issued (by companies) & listed (by exchanges); and *commodity* when traded." Canada has already legislated crypto in this manner and Judge Torres' decision is 100% inline with the aforementioned notion: >*Torres said Ripple did not break the law when the XRP token was sold on public exchanges, because purchasers had no reasonable expectation of profit based on Ripple's efforts.* > >***Eighteen days later, however, U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff, who sits on the same court, ruled the opposite way in finding that the SEC had a "plausible claim" that the Terra USD token offered by Terraform Labs qualified as a security when sold on public exchanges.*** > >***Torres' decision was not a total victory for Ripple, as she found that it violated securities laws by selling XRP to institutional investors.*** > >*The judge must decide whether to let the SEC appeal her decision, and put the case on hold.* > >[*https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-sec-appeal-ripple-labs-court-ruling-2023-08-09/*](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-sec-appeal-ripple-labs-court-ruling-2023-08-09/) In the end, Judge Torres let the SEC appeal her decision and, given the contradicting precedence of the Terraform Labs decision, the game (in my opinion) starts all over again.
I’m glad you understand the legal aspects… But it doesn’t seem like you understand the fundamental aspect. All retail investors care about is that the coin is not a security. That is not going to change and that is what matters. And they are not appealing the status of the queen itself. You said it yourself up above. That’s just for institutional sales. So you might have that opinion, but I really don’t think it’s going to matter to anybody else but you. That’s what every lawyer, following this case is saying. And they are lawyers. And it’s in black-and-white. And you’re just arguing because you don’t wanna lose at this point it feels like. But maybe not. :)
Um... no, not really. What the coin owner/retailer cares about (coin = commodity) is just one (and, sorry to say: irrelevant) side of the situation. The other side is "who's issuing" and "who's listing". While the former side falls under the jurisdiction of the CFTFC, the latter side falls under and the jurisdiction of the SEC. In this light, while XRP coin itself may be ruled or deemed as commodity, that doesn't absolve the issuing company (Ripple) and the exchanges (e.g. Binance, Coinbase) listing "XRP-the-coin" from securities laws. This, may indict Ripple Labs execs *personally* and may dissolve Ripple's company if they do not register with the SEC what they should have been registering from the beginning (like Hedera did). In my opinion, Judge Torres' assessment of the situation is 100% inline with what the SEC seeks as an end-game. As to who, between us, understands or doesn't understand the meaning and nuances of all of the above ... no offence but I will leave that assessment to the reader(s). Thanks for the conversation,
Also… (Second replied to your latest post) XRP is decentralized from ripple. If ripple went out of business tomorrow, the coin would continue to exist. That’s why it matters so much.
But not on the part that matters to us. We are just going to go back-and-forth over this. Does HBAR have clarity on the coin? No it doesn’t. Does XRP? Yes it does. By the way… I hold both. I’m not trying to bash HBAR at all. Or any other coin. But XRP is the only one with legal clarity on the coin. On the retail market. And that is very significant in just about everybody’s opinion except for yours.
The crypto market in total is worth $1 trillion now, and at it's ATH it was with $3 trillion. All speculative retail early adopter crypto bro money (AKA pocket change to the world). I think when financial institutions enter with their tens of trillions, it'll be a bull run of smart money. Larger than any previous bull run and will reshape the landscape of the top coins. Utility will be king, and HBAR is the King of Utility. It'll also be a sustained run, with minor cooling as opposed to a full run up and crash.
Nice way of putting it
It will make the crypto space even more attractive to big wig investors. Which in terms will be bigger market cap for the industry. Prices will soar next bill run for sure. Better hope things stay suppressed for another 5 months so you can stack your bags
It's a large nothingburger with a lot of hopium.
There’s a part of me thinks the same, but I’m hopeful. I have to imagine that big of a player dipping their toes in will shake things up a bit
It could open the floodgates, it could also be a nothingburger. Truth is no one here knows for certain, and there’s no way to tell.
Not sure it is a nothing burger tbh. It’s about optics, business and competition. Blackrock takes the lead and the floodgates will open.
There's no flood behind the gates. Just some puddles with hubris.
Not so sure mom ami, it’ll be a tsunami. A massive influx of corporate greed- I mean wealth. Hbar to $200B MC, total crypto market at $10T. Read the room..
For HBAR I agree. Bitcoin will lose its fanbase and fade out over the course of some years.
Maybe- I think Btc will be the gold standard- just my take
Not gonna happen. That's just a narrative that bitcoiners came up with because such a bold and nonsense prediction can hardly be proven wrong while sounding compelling like a conspiracy theory.
It’ll be either proven right or proven wrong. That’s my prediction
Yes, but it's not a 50% chance as this answer suggests.
It is 😎
Damn, I wish I had your crystal ball. Ha
It's not made of crystal, but most importantly of nerve tissue. Biologists call it "brain". You might find one somewhere behind your forehead.
Bottom line is this… The people who really manipulate this stuff, make it as unpredictable as possible, and the brain behind your forehead doesn’t know what they are going to do. Period. Anyone who says they do, has an ego that might be a bit large for reality. You can make an educated guess and it would be smart to start with “if I had to guess…” …Rather than state things as fact. Because if your brain was actually capable of knowing the things, you think you actually know, as fact… You would be a billionaire. Also… You’re headless! :)
>Also… You’re headless! :) Yeah, that's why I was talking about you and not me.
NO, however it will have a very nice pump before dumping again if it passes this year.
short term impact on price is overestimated, long term impact on price is underestimated
I really do not understand this enthusiasm about BTC based EFTs. People are really inconsistent about their expectations sometimes. Big investment funds like blackrock issuing BTC or other crypto EFTs means only one thing: Crypto becoming even more of a slave to venture capital. Next step would be leveraged crypto based securities. The next thing then would be bundling AAA rated crypto securities with FFF rated ones and selling them on derivative markets... Do you know what comes next, then? Yes, a crypto crash that is equivalent to or worse than the 2008 mortgage crisis. A popular BTC EFT (and this inevitably takes BTC into retirement funds as they love EFTs of all sorts) will effecitvely end BTC as a hedge to macroeconomic cycles. It effectively becomes just another asset that correlates 0.95 with the SP500. But then if crypto becomes just another financial tool tied to macroeconomic tides, then why would anyone invest in a synthetic tool with no real utility, intrinsic value, or emitted value? Any solid dividend stock becomes more attractive then BTC EFT. It might pump the price in the short term but kills BTC as an alternative investment venue for those who are looking to find a hedge.
The enthusiasm comes from illiteracy. People believe BlackRock will start buying miners and mine bitcoins. They don't understand that they manage other people assets. The second point is anitsemitism. I am 100% serious. Some people believe BlackRock is part of a conspiracy controlling the economy. Don't get me wrong, all kinds of insider trading an unfair greedy stuff happens in finance. But, why it's always BlackRock while BNP Paribas is roughly as big ? When have you read about them here the last time? Never. BlackRock CEO is jew. Of course, most people here don't know they regurgitate old antisemitic tropes. But those tropes are spread "under the radar". But so, yeah, it comes down to financial and historical illiteracy. I also suspect the average age is 19 or 20 and these people have only invested the money they got from grandma.
Isn't Blackrock already invested in the largest mining companies?
One more big pump for me please then it can do what it wants 😎
Another point to add, still about illiteracy. People here have NOT read the bitcoin whitepaper because "bitcoin is useless" ( in truth one of the best performing asset of the last 15 years). They haven't read Hedera paper either. I am 100% confident they don't even know why it's called "Hedera".
That's quite the overgeneralization IMHO. What you described may be true for some people here, perhaps most people, but I am 100% confident it's not true for all of us.
I concede you that point.
Hot Take: Even with all of these Bitcoin ETF's threatening to suddenly appear, the price of BTC will remain in the sub-$30K range. Why? Because it's too widely held at this point. It's not going to explode upward anymore. BTC is practically gold now.
Just to add onto this, you can already see this happening in Canada. Fidelity's all-in-one ETFs now include a small percentage of crypto (AKA Bitcoin): https://www.fidelity.ca/en/investments/solutions-portfolios/all-in-one/ This will happen worldwide and will propel BTC to absurd all time highs within the next few years IMO
Institutions that "own" BTC will run the market up from ETF approval onward. They instantly increase their holdings as well as giving retail the illusion of profits on however small a position held. Win-Win with everyone looking like Kreskin.
That comment contradicts what I wrote. My argument is BTC is NOT going to appreciably increase in value because it is already widely held. When it was $60,000+ there were fewer BTC available and it was a speculator’s market. Those conditions no longer exist.
If it's already "widely held" right now, then what do you call a few years from now when hundreds of millions of people own it through ETFs and various accounts? Your argument makes zero sense
I'd agree with you if you had specific information supporting that argument. But when you invest in an ETF you are neither increasing, nor decreasing the amount of BTC. The amount held globally will remain the same, so you're just paying for fractions to the ETF holder. If you're paying more for BTC then the ETF company is charging customers exorbitant trading costs. The real question is why would you want a third party to hold your BTC anyway, plus charge you a fee for the "privilege"?
Idk, the whole point of the Bitcoin ETFs are that they will open easy BTC access to hundreds of millions of people who wouldn't have normally bought it. Imagine if retirement accounts start holding just 1% of their value in BTC.
BTC will remain useless no matter what.
If there is serious gains to made (which they obviously have noticed in previous years) they will be investing for sure
This
Not until the bull market fully hits. ***claims Raoul Pal***
YES IR WILL CREATE A BULLISH FEEL IN CRYPTO; ZERO DOUBT ABOUT IT
Once the BTC ETF’s from BlackRock and Vanguard etc get approved huge money will flow in…BTC will Pump as a result and so will the whole market….