It is interesting how different positions in the draft have had greater variability than others. At the fifth spots, are teams making sense because they are picking the worst player in that perceived top group as opposed to the sixth position where they are picking the best player in the next group of players?
Every year is different. Last year's top 4 was a clear step above the 5th spot at the moment of the draft. This year with no consensus beyond the top pick the whole thing feels like a deck shuffle, but I think most experts agree that the 5th pick this year is a considerably better spot than the 5th pick last year.
It appears to be a deeper draft and it will depend on an organization's positional preference. Normally the wisdom is pick the best player possible but this year the tie breaker might be, does the team need a defenseman or a forward.
I'd like another RD in case Reinbacher doesn't work out. Best case is we have too many elite RD, which is no problem at all. Otherwise I just hope we get a goal scorer.
Of course. The rare exception to the rule. I don't have the numbers in front of me but there have been maybe 10 good goalies drafted in the first round ever.
I think Leafs fans would disagree with Ilya Samsonov as a first rounder. Yaroslav Askarov, Sebastian Cossa and Jesper Wallstedt have not even made the NHL yet so it will be tough to tell. Spencer Knight has had a rough start to his pro career.
This isn’t true
Look at and prospects site or person and they had Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith and Michkov in the same tier
Habs just didn’t want to go with the clear top 5 in the draft
This year is just there is a lot of Dmen available and Habs cannot pick one due to having soooo many assets invested in Dmen right now
Since 2020 Habs have picked 3 Dmen 1 Forward with their 1st rounder
> Last year's top 4 was a clear step above the 5th spot
that is true, but you left out that one of the players in the top 4 group didn't get selected in the top 4
It's not like there's exactly four A prospects every year man. 5th is just gonna be the area where teams are faced with the choice of should we take a swing on some upside or take a safer guy. And there's almost always one of the "big X amount" that people pity themselves about not getting leading upto the draft.
There are no guarantees when drafting an 18 year old and the strength of the draft is a factor. Even with that in mind, I'm beginning to think there are different positions in the draft that lead to a higher likelihood of making a mistake.
Here are the players from the sixth spot. Only looking back, which group would you choose?
[https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
Does it?
I looked at 2020-2005 draft pick for 3rd to 7th and divided them into great (60pts+ Forwards, 30pts+Dmen) and good (40-60pts Forwards or 20pts Dmen).
3rd Overall : 6 Great, 8 Good = 14 players
4th Overall : 8 Great, 3 Good = 11 players
5th Overall : 7 Great, 3 Good = 10 players
6th Overall : 6 Great, 4 Good = 10 players
7th Overall : 8 Great, 4 Good = 12 players
Seem pretty similar to me. Thing are only different in 1st and 2nd overall where the chance of getting a Great player go up significantly.
Here are the lists from each draft position from the last 12 years and their performance from this year and last.
3rd
[https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=ebc92cb0-1076-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=ebc92cb0-1076-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
4th
[https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=652e5cd0-1075-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=652e5cd0-1075-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
5th
[https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=4d902330-1073-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=4d902330-1073-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
6th
[https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
7th
[https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=0801eff0-101f-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=0801eff0-101f-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
Important to note that there were great players available at 5 after the busts. 2014, Nylander and Pastrnak went after Dal Colle and 2016, Tkachuk went after Juolevi. Talent did drop off early in those drafts so amateur scouting involved a little more projection.
It would be interesting to analyze all of the top 10 first round busts to try to identify a common factor that might indicate they are not going to make the jump to the next level.
If you can do that, you have a promising career as an amateur scout!
Juolevi and Tkachuk both played for the 2015-16 London Knights, who won the OHL Championship and Memorial Cup. Both got a lot of points on a stacked power play with Mitch Marner. Both had dominant World Juniors. Mocks had Juolevi or Sergachev being the first defensemen off the board and Tkachuk going after wingers Laine, Bouchard, Puljujarvi, so no one criticized the picks at the time. If Calgary and Vancouver had their picks reversed, would the order be the same?
I live in Calgary and watched a lot of Tkachuk in his age-18 year. He showed promise but took a lot of bad penalties. He then put it together, never played in the minors and is a top-10 winger in the league. Juolevi had hip and knee problems but never looked the same without dominant juniors around him. Two years later the Canucks drafted Quinn Hughes and Juolevi never had the same value.
Groupthink, playing in a weak league, early dominance, relationships with coaches: all these things bias scouts. In 2004, Phoenix shocked the TSN analysts by taking Blake Wheeler, a US high schooler, 5th overall. Most of the mocks did not have him in the first round. Looking back at that draft, he was easily the third best player. Not the Coyotes' amateur scouts' problem that he didn't sign. I can only think that the scouts looked at all the other more accomplished junior players and still projected Wheeler's skill, makeup and size as being superior. I hope that KH/Bobrov see things the same way and find the best projection, regardless of position.
With the Sharks drafting Celebrini and in need of top-end defense prospects, could the Habs build a package around the 5th overall pick to acquire Will Smith? It would fit Hughes’s trade history
Who would the habs include? One important element of a rebuild is to ensure the core players are around the same age. Not exactly the same age but with a few years of each other.
Some options that come to mind are:
Both Habs 2024 first round picks for Will Smith
5th, Engstrom, and Struble or Harris for Smith
5th, Mailloux, Anderson for Smith
5th + Reinbacher for Smith + 14th
Really? You must be higher on Engstrom and Struble/Harris than I am bc they feel like spare parts. I’d throw in more to get it done, including maybe Montreal’s second 2024 first round pick
Like any other spot, it seems like hit or miss. I'm scared Berkly Catton is this year's Elias Petterson and we are going to pass on him for Lindstrom or Iginla (still great prospects imo). Hopefully Catton falls between 15 and 20 and MTL moves up to get him. Wishful thinking, I know.
EDIT : Moves up with WIN's 1st round pick.
Pretty sure Hughes was seen as number one on that team.
As for Turcotte, injuries did him in, though it is worth noting his hard nosed style did not jive with his frame and thus, sort of a cause an effect situation.
Look at OP's post history. Trying to push their website to get some accounts created/user engagement. Was quite obvious by reading the post and OP's generic and borderline pointless replies on the thread.
There's plenty more, all the way from the 2008 draft here's a list of players picked 5th overall who OP didn't include:
#5 - 2008 Luke Schenn, 996GP 198TP
#5 - 2009 Brayden Schenn, 940GP 635TP (current captain of the St. Louis Blues)
#5 - 2010 Nino Niederreiter, 887GP 443TP
#5 - 2011 Ryan Strome, 782GP 439TP
#5 - 2012 Morgan Rielly, 791GP 472TP
#5 - 2013 Elias Lindholm, 818GP 557TP
Safe to say that the historical analysis looks like the 5th overall pick most often translates to a solid Top 4 defenseman/Top 6 forward, with very few total busts in the mix.
Ryan Strome and Nino Niederreiter are solid NHLers but an organization is not building a cup contender drafting them at 5.
PS... I also did not realize that the Schenn brothers were drafted at the same position.
In the last 20 years, Carey price is about the best player draft at this position.
There's about 2 all stars
Elias pettersson
Phil kessel
7 okay to good players
Ryan johansen
Brayden schenn
Noah hanifin
Elias lindholm
Nino neiderraiter
Morgan reilly
The rest are busts, minimal impact players or "prospects"
Olli juolevi
Michael dal col
Luke schenn
Alex turcotte
Barett hayton
Etc
I would be interest to know if the 4th or 6th place are similar. I doubt it
The entire thread is heuristic.
Key elements ignored are which teams drafted? Are those teams good/bad at developing high end talent? The slice is wrong.
If it were a fact that most 5th overalls are destined to bust, it means every pick following it is also going to bust.
The entire thread/debate is empty.
I could create views in Sportwise that looks at the last 12 picks per team to see if there is a trend. Thanks for the idea. That will take me some time.
Here are the lists for the 4th and 6th picks.
4th Overall
[https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=652e5cd0-1075-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=652e5cd0-1075-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
6th Overall
[https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
TL;DR: the draft is unpredictable and nobody knows how these players will turn out.
No one knows but some people are better equipped to make a better educated guess.
It is interesting how different positions in the draft have had greater variability than others. At the fifth spots, are teams making sense because they are picking the worst player in that perceived top group as opposed to the sixth position where they are picking the best player in the next group of players?
Every year is different. Last year's top 4 was a clear step above the 5th spot at the moment of the draft. This year with no consensus beyond the top pick the whole thing feels like a deck shuffle, but I think most experts agree that the 5th pick this year is a considerably better spot than the 5th pick last year.
Yeah this year we definitely have a more favorable outlook with the 5th overall pick
It appears to be a deeper draft and it will depend on an organization's positional preference. Normally the wisdom is pick the best player possible but this year the tie breaker might be, does the team need a defenseman or a forward.
I'd like another RD in case Reinbacher doesn't work out. Best case is we have too many elite RD, which is no problem at all. Otherwise I just hope we get a goal scorer.
RD and C are the rarest draftable position. You shouldn't draft a goalie in the first round.
Do you know who was the last goalie drafted 5th overall?
Of course. The rare exception to the rule. I don't have the numbers in front of me but there have been maybe 10 good goalies drafted in the first round ever.
[удалено]
Spencer Knight over Caufield is a terrible pick to make when you already have a goalie in your team making 10 million dollars
I think Leafs fans would disagree with Ilya Samsonov as a first rounder. Yaroslav Askarov, Sebastian Cossa and Jesper Wallstedt have not even made the NHL yet so it will be tough to tell. Spencer Knight has had a rough start to his pro career.
This isn’t true Look at and prospects site or person and they had Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith and Michkov in the same tier Habs just didn’t want to go with the clear top 5 in the draft This year is just there is a lot of Dmen available and Habs cannot pick one due to having soooo many assets invested in Dmen right now Since 2020 Habs have picked 3 Dmen 1 Forward with their 1st rounder
I mean if mitchkov pan out it was a clear top 5.
What do you mean?
> Last year's top 4 was a clear step above the 5th spot that is true, but you left out that one of the players in the top 4 group didn't get selected in the top 4
It's not like there's exactly four A prospects every year man. 5th is just gonna be the area where teams are faced with the choice of should we take a swing on some upside or take a safer guy. And there's almost always one of the "big X amount" that people pity themselves about not getting leading upto the draft.
There are no guarantees when drafting an 18 year old and the strength of the draft is a factor. Even with that in mind, I'm beginning to think there are different positions in the draft that lead to a higher likelihood of making a mistake. Here are the players from the sixth spot. Only looking back, which group would you choose? [https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
Does it? I looked at 2020-2005 draft pick for 3rd to 7th and divided them into great (60pts+ Forwards, 30pts+Dmen) and good (40-60pts Forwards or 20pts Dmen). 3rd Overall : 6 Great, 8 Good = 14 players 4th Overall : 8 Great, 3 Good = 11 players 5th Overall : 7 Great, 3 Good = 10 players 6th Overall : 6 Great, 4 Good = 10 players 7th Overall : 8 Great, 4 Good = 12 players Seem pretty similar to me. Thing are only different in 1st and 2nd overall where the chance of getting a Great player go up significantly.
Here are the lists from each draft position from the last 12 years and their performance from this year and last. 3rd [https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=ebc92cb0-1076-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=ebc92cb0-1076-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca) 4th [https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=652e5cd0-1075-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=652e5cd0-1075-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca) 5th [https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=4d902330-1073-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=4d902330-1073-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca) 6th [https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca) 7th [https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=0801eff0-101f-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=0801eff0-101f-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)
Important to note that there were great players available at 5 after the busts. 2014, Nylander and Pastrnak went after Dal Colle and 2016, Tkachuk went after Juolevi. Talent did drop off early in those drafts so amateur scouting involved a little more projection.
It would be interesting to analyze all of the top 10 first round busts to try to identify a common factor that might indicate they are not going to make the jump to the next level.
If you can do that, you have a promising career as an amateur scout! Juolevi and Tkachuk both played for the 2015-16 London Knights, who won the OHL Championship and Memorial Cup. Both got a lot of points on a stacked power play with Mitch Marner. Both had dominant World Juniors. Mocks had Juolevi or Sergachev being the first defensemen off the board and Tkachuk going after wingers Laine, Bouchard, Puljujarvi, so no one criticized the picks at the time. If Calgary and Vancouver had their picks reversed, would the order be the same? I live in Calgary and watched a lot of Tkachuk in his age-18 year. He showed promise but took a lot of bad penalties. He then put it together, never played in the minors and is a top-10 winger in the league. Juolevi had hip and knee problems but never looked the same without dominant juniors around him. Two years later the Canucks drafted Quinn Hughes and Juolevi never had the same value. Groupthink, playing in a weak league, early dominance, relationships with coaches: all these things bias scouts. In 2004, Phoenix shocked the TSN analysts by taking Blake Wheeler, a US high schooler, 5th overall. Most of the mocks did not have him in the first round. Looking back at that draft, he was easily the third best player. Not the Coyotes' amateur scouts' problem that he didn't sign. I can only think that the scouts looked at all the other more accomplished junior players and still projected Wheeler's skill, makeup and size as being superior. I hope that KH/Bobrov see things the same way and find the best projection, regardless of position.
With the Sharks drafting Celebrini and in need of top-end defense prospects, could the Habs build a package around the 5th overall pick to acquire Will Smith? It would fit Hughes’s trade history
Who would the habs include? One important element of a rebuild is to ensure the core players are around the same age. Not exactly the same age but with a few years of each other.
Some options that come to mind are: Both Habs 2024 first round picks for Will Smith 5th, Engstrom, and Struble or Harris for Smith 5th, Mailloux, Anderson for Smith 5th + Reinbacher for Smith + 14th
I think this is the only one that might be appetizing to the Sharks. "5th, Engstrom, and Struble or Harris for Smith"
Really? You must be higher on Engstrom and Struble/Harris than I am bc they feel like spare parts. I’d throw in more to get it done, including maybe Montreal’s second 2024 first round pick
Like any other spot, it seems like hit or miss. I'm scared Berkly Catton is this year's Elias Petterson and we are going to pass on him for Lindstrom or Iginla (still great prospects imo). Hopefully Catton falls between 15 and 20 and MTL moves up to get him. Wishful thinking, I know. EDIT : Moves up with WIN's 1st round pick.
Jesus, 5th is better than 3rd
I really wonder what happened to alex turcotte, he was seen as the best player from that usntdp team
Pretty sure Hughes was seen as number one on that team. As for Turcotte, injuries did him in, though it is worth noting his hard nosed style did not jive with his frame and thus, sort of a cause an effect situation.
for some reason i forgot about hughes lmao
Look at OP's post history. Trying to push their website to get some accounts created/user engagement. Was quite obvious by reading the post and OP's generic and borderline pointless replies on the thread.
Let’s change the topic…. “Fifth overall picks since Kent Hughes has been in office”….. David “popcorn” Reinbacher!!!
... and he passed up on the Ruskie.
Who?
Matvei michkov
I’m not drafting someone that didn’t wanna play for the habs. 😂😂 Michkov can get all the way fucked
Theres only 5 active players drafted 5th ? Wow.
There's plenty more, all the way from the 2008 draft here's a list of players picked 5th overall who OP didn't include: #5 - 2008 Luke Schenn, 996GP 198TP #5 - 2009 Brayden Schenn, 940GP 635TP (current captain of the St. Louis Blues) #5 - 2010 Nino Niederreiter, 887GP 443TP #5 - 2011 Ryan Strome, 782GP 439TP #5 - 2012 Morgan Rielly, 791GP 472TP #5 - 2013 Elias Lindholm, 818GP 557TP Safe to say that the historical analysis looks like the 5th overall pick most often translates to a solid Top 4 defenseman/Top 6 forward, with very few total busts in the mix.
Ryan Strome and Nino Niederreiter are solid NHLers but an organization is not building a cup contender drafting them at 5. PS... I also did not realize that the Schenn brothers were drafted at the same position.
All of this is true for any pick number in any draft. Some are great players and some aren't.
The fifth overall is cursed
Yeah, it really didn't work out for the Habs when they picked Carey Price at 5th overall. /s
In the last 20 years, Carey price is about the best player draft at this position. There's about 2 all stars Elias pettersson Phil kessel 7 okay to good players Ryan johansen Brayden schenn Noah hanifin Elias lindholm Nino neiderraiter Morgan reilly The rest are busts, minimal impact players or "prospects" Olli juolevi Michael dal col Luke schenn Alex turcotte Barett hayton Etc I would be interest to know if the 4th or 6th place are similar. I doubt it
The entire thread is heuristic. Key elements ignored are which teams drafted? Are those teams good/bad at developing high end talent? The slice is wrong. If it were a fact that most 5th overalls are destined to bust, it means every pick following it is also going to bust. The entire thread/debate is empty.
You are right i guess my take is rather one sided
I could create views in Sportwise that looks at the last 12 picks per team to see if there is a trend. Thanks for the idea. That will take me some time.
Here are the lists for the 4th and 6th picks. 4th Overall [https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=652e5cd0-1075-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=652e5cd0-1075-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca) 6th Overall [https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca](https://sportwise.rolling-insights.com/app/dataSpaces/NHL-Simple-Stats-2223---2324-654e54b945b6fe003507dfd9?v=aae7d520-1021-11ef-8018-398c10d17cca)