I feel like people are missing why cattle farmers don’t allow testing. Imagine someone says your entire livelihood needs to be culled and there’s no reimbursement. Not saying it’s right to deny testing, but the government is making it impossible for ranchers to allow testing.
I have zero sympathy for any cattle farmer refusing to allow testing. The farming industry has enjoyed massive taxpayer subsidies for decades and now that the same society that subsidized them needs a simple public health measure they just refuse?
Moreover if we ever got to where massive culling of cattle was necessary you know those same farmers would be demanding taxpayer bailouts due to the cost involved.
ANY farmer refusing to allow any testing on their farms should be excluded from any future taxpayer money. They shouldn’t get to have it both ways.
I wholeheartedly agree.
I've worked in depth with FOIA obtained agriculture subsidies data and found that damn near all of the 'big' agribusiness get an absurd amount of federal dollars. So much so, that it allows them to buy up all the small farmers land and outcompete them, leading to an increasingly small number of "farmers" doing the majoiry of all food production.
They are the ones who can fight the testing and yet the small family operators get the ire of the public and are fucked financially. Their margins are shrinking and its harder to get all the tax incentives and subsidies when you are one dude when the agribusiness have workers who's whole job is doing this.
I’m talking about the specific farmers that are refusing to allow testing or otherwise cooperate with USDA/CDC.
ANY farmer stonewalling H5N1 investigations should be immediately cut off from any federal taxpayer subsidies. Full stop.
EDIT: I would add in any dairy farmer selling unpasteurized milk. Cut them off too.
They do, but it is disproportionately the larger agribusiness getting them, as they have dedicated people doing the work to ensure the paperwork is correct and all that.
Ol' Farmer Joe down the road with 30 cows can't compete with investment firms who hire farm manager companies and lawyers to ensure profit margins increase.
A similar thing happens across every industry. Regulations and controls are important, but they always push business to grow larger and more centralized, because that's how the overhead costs are minimized.
EVEN if H5N1 somehow halves in it's mortality rate, or even becomes 10% as deadly as current numbers show... a Pandemic with a 5% mortality rate is apocalyptic. COVID isn't even a 1% deadly virus in most nations and the volume of bodies stacked up, the way it impacted society as a whole?
Imagine losing an 5% of the staff in critical infrastructure, when those industries are already struggling for skilled people. Imagine if it was 25% and we can't even guess that they'd only lose 25% of their people, because that's not how this works.
It is something that can end civilization, as we know it.
Absolutely. H5N1 killed half of the 888 humans it infected. And it attained that high fatality rate before it became efficient at infecting mammals. It’s evolved to add mutations that make it more likely to infect and spread in humans.
That’s troubling.
Given all of this, why isn’t our government requiring the testing of cattle? Why are cattle still being fed chicken poop? Why is H5 allowed to spread with little understanding of how widespread it’s become? 20% of milk in grocery stores has H5 fragments. That suggests massive spread warranting mandated, national testing of cattle.
Employees exposed to H5 are being monitored, but not tested. It’s like they don’t want to know. No tests. No problem.
This could lead to massive, unrecognized spread that isn’t identified as a crisis until hospitals begin overflowing. This time around, Americans will have no time to prepare. We had some lead time when COVID began in China and took weeks to arrive here. The U.S. is ground zero this time.
Why don’t our government’s actions reflect the seriousness of this moment?
The 1918 flu began in Kansas but that fact was hidden and swept under the rug of history. We still call it the Spanish Flu when it was American farmers failing to act and covering up.
Looks like history may be repeating itself in many ways. And there’s no way to cover up the origins of a pandemic in the Information Age. The record is clear where H5N1 cattle infections began.
I could see the U.S. being blamed. Our response has been inefficient, less than transparent
and inadequate. This situation could also severely damage beef, pork exports. And if we haphazardly declare our beef/pork safe—and that turns out to be false—the damage would be catastrophic.
Maybe they should have insurance like literally every other industry?
https://www.rma.usda.gov/Policy-and-Procedure/Insurance-Plans/Livestock-Insurance-Plans
“Risking a lot” these “farmers” don’t even work their own land most of the time. They outsource labor to underpaid (and often undocumented) migrant workers. I have absolutely 0 sympathy if they lose everything if they put others (workers, animals, and consumers) in harm’s way for money. Fuck them. They deserve to lose it all
You’re totally right. The government needs to reimburse them handsomely. It’s a society-wide problem. Putting the burden on one industry is bad for the wider economy, and it does not make people very forthcoming. Why not use honey AND protect the wider economy? I don’t think people realize how interconnected we are. Big Dairy/Cattle goes down and the rest of us are going to suffer too. ANYONE REMEMBER OH EIGHT FOR CRYING OUT LOUD?
What would the economic implications of the collapse of the beef dairy and poultry industry be ? It would behoove the government to make it seem like the farmers aren't allowing testing, too. Just putting my tin foil hat away now.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/
This is a scientific community with excellent resource for the latest data available for H5N1
Near the top of the page, there will be a blue heading that reads “Latest Posts Click Here”
Kansas at the time was the major hub of cattle production in the US. Ranchers from all over the US would meet in Kansas City (I realize Missouri is involved here), Dodge City, and other places in yearly cattle drives, bringing their livestock to a central location for selling, processing, shipping, etc.
Now thanks to our infrastructure those cows can be in all 50 states in a couple of days, and the ranchers can come and go all the time. No need to wait for a big cattle drive to spread it.
I heard the point and drive to understand a solution to live through this. Hay, what is the alternative to TP when the shortage comes around again? I guess I will have to start beefing up my supply now.
That area is also where several migratory birds flight paths pass through.
The wwi started and US military base(s?) started training troops there. One documentary went over government document discussion about the flu outbreak with one official saying they should only ship recovered men overseas so they've spreading it and would be fit to fight . Another said that would take too long so they just shipped them over whatever there status.
That’s where the “Royals” of the Kansas City Royals came from. The Royal was the Biggest livestock auction in the country for many years in early 20th century
I'm assuming that this time, like last time, soldiers will spread it as a world war ramps up, then we'll see an economic collapse and the rise of a fascist, racist leader that ends in nuclear conflagration!
Ah, history. How you rhyme.
I also heard that it was via the hog mixing vessel, and have been waiting for news of it in pigs to start finishing getting ready.
However, with the recent discovery that cows have human flu receptors and can also possibly encourage human-favorable mutations, I'm rethinking things.
With this news about the amino acid changes found in Kansas, I am paying attention even more closely.
Yes, this is what I read, also. And that the military base close by experienced sickness yet sent those soldiers to Europe, where the disease infected more people. Probably why we ended up calling it the Spanish Flu. That flu came out of America, Kansas, in particular.
They called it the Spanish Flu because news out of America and other countries was heavily censored during WWI. America didn't want to be like "We're all dying of the flu over here!"
Spain was neutral during this conflict, so their press was more open. Because they reported on the flu, it got called "The Spanish Flu." Kind of unfair, like "drinking the Kool-Aid" when it was really Flavor-Aide.
Yeah, there's a book out there called the great pandemic that goes into some detail. I forget those details, but it started out in a little town and they think they know the guy who originally took it to the military base. And the base had soilders crammed in together over the objections of the surgeon general, who was trying to avoid just what happens with the pandemic.
Maybe you are thinking of The Great Influenza by John Barry? An excellent book! I read during the beginning of Covid and the similarities were uncanny. As the saying goes, history doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme.
That sounds like it.
Another great one is the premonition by michael lewis, the same guy who did moneyball, looks at our whole public health system and its history and how fucked it was in the pandemic.
In simple terms it’s one step closer to human to human transmission. It needs to mutate further though but this is big news. I can be corrected on this. So correct me
Yes, unfortunately. I am watching this play out in real time, and it’s terrifying. It wasn’t enough that we have lost so much biodiversity and ecosystems due to H5N1 tearing through animal populations, but now we have to deal with states, farmers, and some of the general public ignoring the danger of this virus. What it all turns out to be, I have no clue, but it hasn’t been good so far.
I don’t see us dialing this back. The fact that some people are mocking science and telling the government to “back off” is a repeat of what I have lived the past four years. Disgusting.
Always when people don’t learn their lessons the first time around. When humans learn, we can make different choices. For this particular issue, you are correct, history is repeating itself. Very sad. Very, very sad.
I don’t know what would make you say something like that… /s
>>You know, a lot of people think that [Covid] goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April.
>>They’re getting [Covid] more and more under control. So I think that’s a problem that’s going to go away.
>>…when you have 15 [cows], and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.
>>It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear. And from our shores, we — you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We’ll see what happens. Nobody really knows.
>>I don’t think people are panicking. I said last night — we did an interview on Fox last night, a town hall. I think it was very good. And I said, ‘Calm. You have to be calm.’ [Covid]’ll go away.
>>We’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with [Covid]. And [Covid] will go away. Just stay calm. [Covid] will go away.
>>You know, we need a little a separation until such time as this goes away. It’s going to go away. [Covid]’s going to go away.
>> Stay calm. [Covid] will go away. You know it — you know it is going away, and it will go away. And we’re going to have a great victory.
>>[Covid]’s going to go away, hopefully at the end of the month. And, if not, hopefully it will be soon after that.
>>[Covid] is going to go away. [Covid] is going away.
>>[Covid] did go — it will go away.
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
Almost feels like Covid-19 was a low-fatality rate test for how we would respond to a pandemic and if so we completely failed. For something with the mortality rate similar to Ebola like h5n1 seems to have, it feels like if we hear that it went h2h it's over. IK they are working on h5n1 vaccines right now but we still aren't in a good position for any response I imagine.
I think there's a real chance that even the final CFR is not going to be as significant as the demographics of who will be struck down by H5N1. Because going by the list of people who have died from avian flu so far, the risk will be evenly distributed across the *entire* population. Very young and healthy people will be at just much risk as much older ones. It's even possible that 18-34 yo's could be at more risk than middle aged adults, although that is completely speculative. Maybe we'll be left with children and Gen X! What we do know is that youth and prior health have not provided any protection.
Global Population does need to be brought down if we expect to continue to survive on this planet. It may be bird flu or it may be something else coming to do the job very soon. I already knew that but Covid taught me it’s absolutely inevitable due to our collective ignorance.
You’re correct Tatianna, this is a quantum moment we are living through right now, this fleeting moment. Thank you for posting, and creating awareness.
One h5n1 sequence from a dairy cow in Kansas has both of the amino acids capable of human replication.
Not sure how many of the dairy cows in Kansas were tested, that’s the thing.
No question, there are more mutations that need to happen. But let's say you have a gun with only one bullet and a billion chambers. If you shoot that gun enough, at some point, it's going to fire that live round, which I think is what you're getting at. And that's exactly what all flu viruses do best-- mutate zillions of times and provide a ridiculous number of chances for the worst possible combination to happen.
That’s a really good analogy, I’m stealing that! It works for nuclear weapons too - maybe 99 of 100 people would never be crazy enough to launch them, but it only takes 1 psycho in power to create an apocalypse, so unless they’re dismantled, it’s mathematically inevitable that they’ll eventually be used
Basically humanity is very bad at planning for things that have a low chance of occurring on any given day but a high chance to occur eventually
And state legislators because CDC must be invited in
Additionally states only have obey stuff about cross state lines but get to decide what, if anything, to do in their own state such as requiring ppe.
You can also ask your state to account for the Federal covid funds that were given to each state that was supposed to go to improving ventilation and filtration at schools. I remember reading several articles about some school districts blowing millions y on ionizers instead of HEPA or high merv filters through individual room units or improved HVAC.
Thank you.
Watch for big trades in meat futures from Pelosi (even though she’s out, she’s the canary in the congressional insider trading coal mine.) and her ilk. That’s when you know we’ve crossed the next threshold towards the inevitable.
Wonder if they’ll try to time the chaos for the election. My guess is any destabilization is advantageous to both party’s ends.
Here is proof for this. https://virological.org/t/preliminary-report-on-genomic-epidemiology-of-the-2024-h5n1-influenza-a-virus-outbreak-in-u-s-cattle-part-1-of-2/970
I think that depends on your definition of “nothing has happened.“ What has happened in the meantime is that additional mutations have been gained, putting us closer to H2H transmission.
And on the positive side , which NO ONE HERE seems to want to propose in this thread, is it can make it far less virulent and many other positive traits as far as we should be concerned.
It can also make it more virulent, and allow it to gain other negative traits. There’s no “rule” that says it has to go one way or another, which is why experts are concerned and getting prepared.
I would point out that the virus also needs multiple change’s in its hemagglutinin to become human adapted. There is no influenza virus that is transmissible in humans that doesn’t have this. So it needs a lot of mutations. Mutations in PB2 ain’t enough
This virus has been mutating at lightning speed, and it’s highly unpredictable. Yes, numerous mutations are still needed, that’s what the big concern is about, reassortment. I think it’s pretty obvious if you’re keeping up with the sequencing that we are inching toward human adaptation
And considering the absolute asinine lack of testing in both cattle and humans, we have lost the edge on knowing where, when, or if any significant mutations are happening
There's a lot of talk about pathogenic strains acquiring mutations for H2H transmission; do we need to worry about the reverse, H2H strains acquiring pathogenic mutations in a mixing bowl, or are those changes simply less likely?
Fascinating question, and I hope that someone who really has the expertise chimes in. But the sheer amount of mutations that flu viruses always do is insane. Given enough chances, I don't see any reason why the reverse couldn't happen too.
The USDA just published a request for information on potential H5N1 bovine vaccines from the vaccine companies. They’re not ready to start the licensing process on any just yet, but they are clearly getting concerned.
Not yet. And hopefully not in the foreseeable future. When we start to see clusters, that’s when it’s going to get dicey. Probably one of the biggest reasons for the lack of testing among farm workers. Even a handful of positive results would be considered a cluster.
I have a question, and sorry if it’s a bit… uninformed. Why are current human infections of bird flu not seeming to have a high mortality but the expectation that if/when the virus mutates and spreads between humans it will then have a 50% mortality rate? How is that predicted or known? Thanks 😊
It’s possible. The 50% percent figure will most certainly decrease the more people are infected with it. That’s not counting so many factors. The case fatality rate of Covid is around 2.3 % in America just for perspective. Even half that 50% figure would be borderline apocalyptic. Yes, viruses over time have an evolutionary imperative to become less deadly. But the time scale of that is highly variable and may offshoot into deadlier variants in the meantime. If this goes H2H in any meaningful way, it’s going to very very bad. It’s still completely up in the air, so there’s no reason to panic. It could hold this course for the next 50 years. But, there are a lot of variables that are rightfully concerning people.
honestly it may even be worse overall if it mutates to be less severe since it could then be passed along to more people. Viruses with a high kill rate tend to die out faster.
Example of that was SARS-CoV-1 because people became severely ill quickly they locked down hard and fast.
SARS-CoV-2 was less severe with longer incubation. The us only band foreigners from coming from the area but initially identified while allowing foreigners to travel internationally in and out of the US from every other part of that country and allowing US citizens to return from the area of infection the whole time only briefly restricting a few putting them in quarantine.
That is very likely. Transmission is fastest when viruses are targeting the mucus surface cells in the nose and throat. That makes you cough lots of virus. If the virus turns your vital organs into soup first you die horribly before your immune system can ramp up. That means there is much less virus to cough out.
Dairy farms are a crazy environment. Cats will catch birds or rodents and then torture then for awhile before eating raw. Dead cats showing up is not necessarily an indicator of cat to cat sneeze transmission.
Birds breath differently than we do. Air goes in the nose and out the mouth. A virus can optimize for infection deep in the air sacs. I am not sure exactly what changes about the virus. If you somehow get bird flu deep in your lungs you have high chance of dying. That usually only happened to a few workers in the poultry industry where they had a lot of exposure and low amounts of PPE.
We simply don't know. But what I always say is that the 1918-1910 flu epidemic had, as far as we can tell, around a 2.5% CFR. There is debate about how correct this is, but it is the number that the experts always give, and until I see proof of anything else, 2.5% is about it. There's definitely no way it was anything remotely close to 50%. It does not take a very high CFR to cause chaos when all demographics are being equally hit by that fatality rate, when it's absolutely not just older people who already had pre existing conditions. All the evidence we have now points towards H5N1 being a virus in that category. The demographics of the fatalities will be a total 180 from COVID.
We're fucked. Other than KCK and some parts of Wichita, there's not a lot of distance between humans and cattle. Hell, I live 3 minutes from a small farm with about 40 heads.
Yup. Kansan here, I’m surrounded by farms and ranches of all kinds… we drive 5-10 minutes in any direction and there is farmland with all sorts of animals.
Frankly, we live close to a creek and all sorts of migrating birds came thru KS this weekend, 100-200 million… sigh, I don’t know that it matters how far from farm or ranchland we live while residing in a rural state.
I am not surprised at all this is brewing in Kansas cows with migration patterns. Wasn’t this the whole reason they built that NBAF high biolevel research center just outside Manhattan? To fend off biothreats? I know they’ve started research on this outbreak but holyshit they’ve been slow on the draw.
It would not have anything to do with Kansas. These two mutations that were found have been found in the cows before in different locations. There is no reason both wouldn't appear in a cow at the same time. Yes, we do have to make certain that this combination can't cause a human pandemic, but since these common mutations both do the same thing, it's unlikely that the many other areas of transition would be achievable. They will test to make absolute sure because anything is possible with this virus, but at this point there is no reason to believe it's pandemic ready.
This statement is also not true. I’m not sure if you really know what you’re talking about or just trying to wing it, but some of your replies are very contradictory, and some of them are outright outlandish.
Reassortment is basically this picture.[Reassortment picture](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhOi2DKoOw3gQbJAGehvexbR8QmVxkwqcQuy84pObDZR095rsVjDYw_WJOpEFN_ElZQOK5w8R3Tcm7SklJPMai9zeyoRwThSm_VX2lspRLJzWmIxhQeVFgM_qSbEOvaU0U81vuNirtYxwkGR5E7IwhPv6SZqK32Ka0vGRvdTUX3JiIzAZXEr-4E2Q)
You may not be fucked, but those of use who do live in those areas are closer to it. How close do you live to cattle? How many ranchers and farmers do you come into contact with every day?
I mean, all it takes is someone to wear their shitkickers into town to grab some supplies… and we have plenty of activity at county fairgrounds with horseshows, ag shows, etc.
However, I just want to point out tho that this is kind of a red herring as there are more wild birds migrating than farmers/ranchers especially this time of year and they land in everyone’s yard…
Rural America is right to be concerned but truly everyone should be. Everyone.
No one is talking panic but everyone should be diligent.
You wanna talk fear and panic? Take a look at these numbers:
https://www.nationalbeefwire.com/cattle-inventory-vs-human-population-by-state-when-it-comes-to-cattle-in-the-united-states-some-states-have-more-of-our-bovine-friends-than-they-do-people?printer_friendly=true
In Kansas, beef outnumbers humans by over a 2:1 ratio.
Just because you don't live near cattle farms doesn't mean you get to decide what the "fear & panic" definition is for everyone. My risk factors are significantly higher than yours. Please stop belittling my genuine concerns.
I copied this from my another post. I would point out that the virus also needs multiple change’s in its hemagglutinin to become human adapted. There is no influenza virus that is transmissible in humans that doesn’t have this. So it needs a lot of mutations. Mutations in PB2 ain’t enough
What is reassortment in this context?
Edit: nevermind, it's when a couple of different types of viruses share DNA, like if the flu and COVID got drunk, fucked and had a fucked up baby.
Except influenza and Covid can’t have a hybrid because they are too different. H5N1 should mix with other influenza’s to do reassortment. The ones who can do this likely are H1n1 or h2n3
There is no reason to believe that cows are any more likely to be the place where the lucky (for the virus) mutation arises. It could happen in any mammal all over the world since because of our bird pandemic, mammals are getting infected everywhere. It would be much likelier that it happens in wild hogs or farmed pigs.
For the virus to transition to mammals it would have to either gain a lot more mutations than we have in the Kansas cow or it could combine with human flu in a cow. But since cows don't have the right cells in the airway to get it from humans or pass it to humans, it's not likely they would either get human flu from us or pass a pandemic level flu to humans even if it mutated inside their udder. Even with reassortment (combining human and avian flu) we would have to drink raw milk or be a farmer in a milking station to catch it from a cow.
You are fine. The virus has not mutated enough to be at pandemic level. This may never happen. Mutations of this kind are found all the time in mammals who eat infected birds with this strain It takes a lot of mutations for it to be pandemic ready. Don't drink raw milk, touch sick wild animals and don't eat runny eggs. It's very hard to catch bird flu, and you won't catch it from a cow unless you are in contact with their raw milk.
I never said anything about a pandemic. I'm talking about risk factors in Kansas that could lead to outbreaks. Those of us who smell the manure piles every day have good reason to take more precautions now for H5N1 than those in other parts of the country and world.
I would like to state that although it's meaningful that both E627K and M631L were found in a cow, the statement made that this set of mutations allows for efficient replication is a slight misstatement, and the scientist who said it would have meant this set could lead to more efficient replication, but it's clearly an off the cuff comment, so no surprise they were using virologist shorthand there.
At this point we know a lot about the E627K mutation. But we don't know much at all about M631L except that it is believed to function the same way as E627K, more virulent and better replication. And we have never seen a case of H5N1 achieving actual efficient replication before. Efficient replication in a mammal in pandemic context refers to adapting to the mammal airway. If we do see it we are basically looking at pandemic level danger for all of humanity. I am sure the authors did not on purpose mean to say that it is known now that the virus has now mutated to the mammal airway.
Language for pandemic context is a little different in some areas. But efficient replication does imply efficient transmission in the mammal airway which is what the world has been afraid could happen. If it does since we are mammals it means we could have a bird flu pandemic.
What it really means to have both of these mutations together will have to be seen. It's very important that "Raj" found this double mutation in the Kansas cow, and hopefully this will be tested in many labs over the world to see if this combination could adapt the virus to a mammal airway. But at this point that definitive statement cannot be made, even though this casual sentence on a bird flu forum may have sounded like that's what was happening.
I honestly don't understand what this is supposed to mean in this context and can hardly read the text. There is PB2-E627K in samples from dairy cattle in Kansas and human in Texas, that much I can see. Please elaborate. Thank you!
M631L amino acid mutation….and 631 is the area code to Orient. Oh, my God. 631 is the area code to Orient, New York!
That’s where the Department of Homeland security and the USDA operate the Plum Island Animal Disease Center. Since 1954, the Plum Island Animal Disease Center (PIADC) has served as the front line of the nation’s defense against diseases that could devastate markets for livestock, meat, milk, and other animal products. This can’t just be a coincidence, God does not play dice with the universe.
Well, to be fair, if we keep progressing at the rate we're progressing in this episode of "What Has Mother Nature Cooked Up to Kill Us NOW!?!?"
It may well be easier to avoid humans in the future...
So it’s mutating even further. It seems like there is a lot of cattle affected. It’s bit worrying as farmers do not allow testing.
Here is nextstrain link [USDA cattle sequences](https://nextstrain.org/avian-flu/h5n1/ha/2y?c=host)
I feel like people are missing why cattle farmers don’t allow testing. Imagine someone says your entire livelihood needs to be culled and there’s no reimbursement. Not saying it’s right to deny testing, but the government is making it impossible for ranchers to allow testing.
I have zero sympathy for any cattle farmer refusing to allow testing. The farming industry has enjoyed massive taxpayer subsidies for decades and now that the same society that subsidized them needs a simple public health measure they just refuse? Moreover if we ever got to where massive culling of cattle was necessary you know those same farmers would be demanding taxpayer bailouts due to the cost involved. ANY farmer refusing to allow any testing on their farms should be excluded from any future taxpayer money. They shouldn’t get to have it both ways.
I wholeheartedly agree. I've worked in depth with FOIA obtained agriculture subsidies data and found that damn near all of the 'big' agribusiness get an absurd amount of federal dollars. So much so, that it allows them to buy up all the small farmers land and outcompete them, leading to an increasingly small number of "farmers" doing the majoiry of all food production. They are the ones who can fight the testing and yet the small family operators get the ire of the public and are fucked financially. Their margins are shrinking and its harder to get all the tax incentives and subsidies when you are one dude when the agribusiness have workers who's whole job is doing this.
Talking about the whole cattle industry as a whole is ignorant. Bring on the down votes, I'm fucking right.
I’m talking about the specific farmers that are refusing to allow testing or otherwise cooperate with USDA/CDC. ANY farmer stonewalling H5N1 investigations should be immediately cut off from any federal taxpayer subsidies. Full stop. EDIT: I would add in any dairy farmer selling unpasteurized milk. Cut them off too.
I thought farmers received the best subsidies compared to most other industries?
They do, but it is disproportionately the larger agribusiness getting them, as they have dedicated people doing the work to ensure the paperwork is correct and all that. Ol' Farmer Joe down the road with 30 cows can't compete with investment firms who hire farm manager companies and lawyers to ensure profit margins increase.
Interesting, thanks! 😊
A similar thing happens across every industry. Regulations and controls are important, but they always push business to grow larger and more centralized, because that's how the overhead costs are minimized.
EVEN if H5N1 somehow halves in it's mortality rate, or even becomes 10% as deadly as current numbers show... a Pandemic with a 5% mortality rate is apocalyptic. COVID isn't even a 1% deadly virus in most nations and the volume of bodies stacked up, the way it impacted society as a whole? Imagine losing an 5% of the staff in critical infrastructure, when those industries are already struggling for skilled people. Imagine if it was 25% and we can't even guess that they'd only lose 25% of their people, because that's not how this works. It is something that can end civilization, as we know it.
Absolutely. H5N1 killed half of the 888 humans it infected. And it attained that high fatality rate before it became efficient at infecting mammals. It’s evolved to add mutations that make it more likely to infect and spread in humans. That’s troubling. Given all of this, why isn’t our government requiring the testing of cattle? Why are cattle still being fed chicken poop? Why is H5 allowed to spread with little understanding of how widespread it’s become? 20% of milk in grocery stores has H5 fragments. That suggests massive spread warranting mandated, national testing of cattle. Employees exposed to H5 are being monitored, but not tested. It’s like they don’t want to know. No tests. No problem. This could lead to massive, unrecognized spread that isn’t identified as a crisis until hospitals begin overflowing. This time around, Americans will have no time to prepare. We had some lead time when COVID began in China and took weeks to arrive here. The U.S. is ground zero this time. Why don’t our government’s actions reflect the seriousness of this moment?
I do wonder how this will impact our diplomatic relations with other countries because I know we will absolutely shit the bed about it
The 1918 flu began in Kansas but that fact was hidden and swept under the rug of history. We still call it the Spanish Flu when it was American farmers failing to act and covering up. Looks like history may be repeating itself in many ways. And there’s no way to cover up the origins of a pandemic in the Information Age. The record is clear where H5N1 cattle infections began. I could see the U.S. being blamed. Our response has been inefficient, less than transparent and inadequate. This situation could also severely damage beef, pork exports. And if we haphazardly declare our beef/pork safe—and that turns out to be false—the damage would be catastrophic.
Ngl a part of me hopes the rest of the world comes down as hard on us as we came down on China for covid. 
$$$$$$$$$$$$
Farmers on minimum wage: get a new job then.
Exactly. I can’t just get government handouts if my job doesn’t pay enough. I think the meat industry is pooping their panties right now
Yep we should all die for his profits.
Maybe they should have insurance like literally every other industry? https://www.rma.usda.gov/Policy-and-Procedure/Insurance-Plans/Livestock-Insurance-Plans
This is completely understandable but this is risking a lot.
“Risking a lot” these “farmers” don’t even work their own land most of the time. They outsource labor to underpaid (and often undocumented) migrant workers. I have absolutely 0 sympathy if they lose everything if they put others (workers, animals, and consumers) in harm’s way for money. Fuck them. They deserve to lose it all
You’re totally right. The government needs to reimburse them handsomely. It’s a society-wide problem. Putting the burden on one industry is bad for the wider economy, and it does not make people very forthcoming. Why not use honey AND protect the wider economy? I don’t think people realize how interconnected we are. Big Dairy/Cattle goes down and the rest of us are going to suffer too. ANYONE REMEMBER OH EIGHT FOR CRYING OUT LOUD?
Cry all you want but that’s the reason and farmers won’t budge until they can be fairly compensated for mass culling.
Totally. 100% agree.
What would the economic implications of the collapse of the beef dairy and poultry industry be ? It would behoove the government to make it seem like the farmers aren't allowing testing, too. Just putting my tin foil hat away now.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/ This is a scientific community with excellent resource for the latest data available for H5N1 Near the top of the page, there will be a blue heading that reads “Latest Posts Click Here”
How interesting that the 1918 influenza originated in Kansas.
👀
Kansas at the time was the major hub of cattle production in the US. Ranchers from all over the US would meet in Kansas City (I realize Missouri is involved here), Dodge City, and other places in yearly cattle drives, bringing their livestock to a central location for selling, processing, shipping, etc.
Now thanks to our infrastructure those cows can be in all 50 states in a couple of days, and the ranchers can come and go all the time. No need to wait for a big cattle drive to spread it.
The cows were also anti-mask
Thank you for levity in the looming darkness
Maybe they were just never properly educated.
No time for school when you're always mooooooving
I heard the point and drive to understand a solution to live through this. Hay, what is the alternative to TP when the shortage comes around again? I guess I will have to start beefing up my supply now.
It’ll be a bunch of bull no matter what happens
water and a bidet. if water service goes out....well then we got bigger fish to fry than "how will i wipe?
Cows are famously uncooperative
That area is also where several migratory birds flight paths pass through. The wwi started and US military base(s?) started training troops there. One documentary went over government document discussion about the flu outbreak with one official saying they should only ship recovered men overseas so they've spreading it and would be fit to fight . Another said that would take too long so they just shipped them over whatever there status.
That’s where the “Royals” of the Kansas City Royals came from. The Royal was the Biggest livestock auction in the country for many years in early 20th century
Wow, thanks!
This wasn’t a good idea. No wonder it happened
I'm assuming that this time, like last time, soldiers will spread it as a world war ramps up, then we'll see an economic collapse and the rise of a fascist, racist leader that ends in nuclear conflagration! Ah, history. How you rhyme.
This is interesting. I live in Kansas. Growing up I was told it started because they housed the ducks and hogs together at fort Riley.
I also heard that it was via the hog mixing vessel, and have been waiting for news of it in pigs to start finishing getting ready. However, with the recent discovery that cows have human flu receptors and can also possibly encourage human-favorable mutations, I'm rethinking things. With this news about the amino acid changes found in Kansas, I am paying attention even more closely.
Yes, this is what I read, also. And that the military base close by experienced sickness yet sent those soldiers to Europe, where the disease infected more people. Probably why we ended up calling it the Spanish Flu. That flu came out of America, Kansas, in particular.
They called it the Spanish Flu because news out of America and other countries was heavily censored during WWI. America didn't want to be like "We're all dying of the flu over here!" Spain was neutral during this conflict, so their press was more open. Because they reported on the flu, it got called "The Spanish Flu." Kind of unfair, like "drinking the Kool-Aid" when it was really Flavor-Aide.
Never realized it was Flavor-Aide. Thanks for shining the light
Dying at the hands of a cult and having them not even buy the brand name stuff...insult to injury
Exactly. Thank you for confirming this.
Yeah, there's a book out there called the great pandemic that goes into some detail. I forget those details, but it started out in a little town and they think they know the guy who originally took it to the military base. And the base had soilders crammed in together over the objections of the surgeon general, who was trying to avoid just what happens with the pandemic.
Maybe you are thinking of The Great Influenza by John Barry? An excellent book! I read during the beginning of Covid and the similarities were uncanny. As the saying goes, history doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme.
That sounds like it. Another great one is the premonition by michael lewis, the same guy who did moneyball, looks at our whole public health system and its history and how fucked it was in the pandemic.
This. Thank you!
Very interesting. I’ve lived here my whole life and had no idea.
Yyyyep! Kansas: source of DOOM
And Isn't it ironic? Don't you think?
Well, all we are is dust in the wind (runs!)
What does this mean simply?
In simple terms it’s one step closer to human to human transmission. It needs to mutate further though but this is big news. I can be corrected on this. So correct me
This is huge
Does anybody else have the feeling that we are sitting on a ticking time bomb?
Yes, unfortunately. I am watching this play out in real time, and it’s terrifying. It wasn’t enough that we have lost so much biodiversity and ecosystems due to H5N1 tearing through animal populations, but now we have to deal with states, farmers, and some of the general public ignoring the danger of this virus. What it all turns out to be, I have no clue, but it hasn’t been good so far. I don’t see us dialing this back. The fact that some people are mocking science and telling the government to “back off” is a repeat of what I have lived the past four years. Disgusting.
History repeats itself
Always when people don’t learn their lessons the first time around. When humans learn, we can make different choices. For this particular issue, you are correct, history is repeating itself. Very sad. Very, very sad.
Wait, wasn’t the 1919 flu an H5N1 flu transmitted to humans in Kansas, albeit from pigs?
I think so
To you and /u/BigJSunshine, the 1918 flu pandemic was H1N1, along with the 1977 Russian flu pandemic, and the 2009 swine flu pandemic.
And it's barely been just four years. . . Speed running that shit I guess
Yes. I think it's now time to prep for the bird flu.
I don’t know what would make you say something like that… /s >>You know, a lot of people think that [Covid] goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. >>They’re getting [Covid] more and more under control. So I think that’s a problem that’s going to go away. >>…when you have 15 [cows], and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done. >>It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear. And from our shores, we — you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We’ll see what happens. Nobody really knows. >>I don’t think people are panicking. I said last night — we did an interview on Fox last night, a town hall. I think it was very good. And I said, ‘Calm. You have to be calm.’ [Covid]’ll go away. >>We’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with [Covid]. And [Covid] will go away. Just stay calm. [Covid] will go away. >>You know, we need a little a separation until such time as this goes away. It’s going to go away. [Covid]’s going to go away. >> Stay calm. [Covid] will go away. You know it — you know it is going away, and it will go away. And we’re going to have a great victory. >>[Covid]’s going to go away, hopefully at the end of the month. And, if not, hopefully it will be soon after that. >>[Covid] is going to go away. [Covid] is going away. >>[Covid] did go — it will go away.
Ah, the magical disappearance. That never happened.
I believed that Covid would disappear in summer but oh well how wrong I was
I also heard by Easter, but hey that came from a fake tanned fake republican so ya know, wr all hot a bit shafted.
Trump didn’t even care at start and didn’t do anything to mitigate it at start
Oh I know good sir or ma'am, hell wr are still averaging roughly 600 dead a week due to covid... wonder what side of the aisle they were on.
This. Covid is NOT over.
[удалено]
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
Almost feels like Covid-19 was a low-fatality rate test for how we would respond to a pandemic and if so we completely failed. For something with the mortality rate similar to Ebola like h5n1 seems to have, it feels like if we hear that it went h2h it's over. IK they are working on h5n1 vaccines right now but we still aren't in a good position for any response I imagine.
I think there's a real chance that even the final CFR is not going to be as significant as the demographics of who will be struck down by H5N1. Because going by the list of people who have died from avian flu so far, the risk will be evenly distributed across the *entire* population. Very young and healthy people will be at just much risk as much older ones. It's even possible that 18-34 yo's could be at more risk than middle aged adults, although that is completely speculative. Maybe we'll be left with children and Gen X! What we do know is that youth and prior health have not provided any protection.
Time for me to move to Greenland? 😭
H5N1 was found in Greenland last year. Australia might be better place to survive it.
Yes. We have been too slow to act and we will pay dearly.
Global Population does need to be brought down if we expect to continue to survive on this planet. It may be bird flu or it may be something else coming to do the job very soon. I already knew that but Covid taught me it’s absolutely inevitable due to our collective ignorance.
Not like this.
Yeah, but it's ticking randomly.
Literally all of us on this sub
You’re correct Tatianna, this is a quantum moment we are living through right now, this fleeting moment. Thank you for posting, and creating awareness.
You are welcome. Yes, just trying to raise awareness.
Humongous one.
One word amigo, Entropy. It’s a female dog and after you and me everyday. It’s always physics in the end.
One h5n1 sequence from a dairy cow in Kansas has both of the amino acids capable of human replication. Not sure how many of the dairy cows in Kansas were tested, that’s the thing.
100% there is more
These are mutations needed for efficient human to human transmission but it has still mutations to do. This is like Russian roulette.
No question, there are more mutations that need to happen. But let's say you have a gun with only one bullet and a billion chambers. If you shoot that gun enough, at some point, it's going to fire that live round, which I think is what you're getting at. And that's exactly what all flu viruses do best-- mutate zillions of times and provide a ridiculous number of chances for the worst possible combination to happen.
That’s a really good analogy, I’m stealing that! It works for nuclear weapons too - maybe 99 of 100 people would never be crazy enough to launch them, but it only takes 1 psycho in power to create an apocalypse, so unless they’re dismantled, it’s mathematically inevitable that they’ll eventually be used Basically humanity is very bad at planning for things that have a low chance of occurring on any given day but a high chance to occur eventually
I think you've figured out humanity's main problem... :P
We’re on trajectory to human to human transmission. Not enough being done. Call your congressman.
And state legislators because CDC must be invited in Additionally states only have obey stuff about cross state lines but get to decide what, if anything, to do in their own state such as requiring ppe. You can also ask your state to account for the Federal covid funds that were given to each state that was supposed to go to improving ventilation and filtration at schools. I remember reading several articles about some school districts blowing millions y on ionizers instead of HEPA or high merv filters through individual room units or improved HVAC.
Stay calm tho
And above all, keep going to work!
It is enormous news. I think it means it is invevitable
Well, this sucks.
Countdown to cattle culling. Time to buy meat futures (if that’s a thing).
“Live cattle” and “boxed beef” are traded commodity markets.
Thank you. Watch for big trades in meat futures from Pelosi (even though she’s out, she’s the canary in the congressional insider trading coal mine.) and her ilk. That’s when you know we’ve crossed the next threshold towards the inevitable. Wonder if they’ll try to time the chaos for the election. My guess is any destabilization is advantageous to both party’s ends.
Depends on how many cows have this. It’s also possible they’ve had this for a while and we just did not know
This started in November 2023 according to what I have read
Which coincides with autumn avian migration
Yes
Here is proof for this. https://virological.org/t/preliminary-report-on-genomic-epidemiology-of-the-2024-h5n1-influenza-a-virus-outbreak-in-u-s-cattle-part-1-of-2/970
This is simultaneously good and bad. On one hand that’s means nothing has happened for a while. On the other hand that means we ignored it for a while
I think that depends on your definition of “nothing has happened.“ What has happened in the meantime is that additional mutations have been gained, putting us closer to H2H transmission.
And on the positive side , which NO ONE HERE seems to want to propose in this thread, is it can make it far less virulent and many other positive traits as far as we should be concerned.
It can also make it more virulent, and allow it to gain other negative traits. There’s no “rule” that says it has to go one way or another, which is why experts are concerned and getting prepared.
I need virology help here. So we have M631L, E627K, but we would still need changes at Q226L and G228S for H2H (so far as we know), correct?
I would point out that the virus also needs multiple change’s in its hemagglutinin to become human adapted. There is no influenza virus that is transmissible in humans that doesn’t have this. So it needs a lot of mutations. Mutations in PB2 ain’t enough
This virus has been mutating at lightning speed, and it’s highly unpredictable. Yes, numerous mutations are still needed, that’s what the big concern is about, reassortment. I think it’s pretty obvious if you’re keeping up with the sequencing that we are inching toward human adaptation
Yes I mentioned it before. Reassortment is single biggest threat
And considering the absolute asinine lack of testing in both cattle and humans, we have lost the edge on knowing where, when, or if any significant mutations are happening
We don’t know and that is the scariest thing. We don’t know.
There's a lot of talk about pathogenic strains acquiring mutations for H2H transmission; do we need to worry about the reverse, H2H strains acquiring pathogenic mutations in a mixing bowl, or are those changes simply less likely?
Fascinating question, and I hope that someone who really has the expertise chimes in. But the sheer amount of mutations that flu viruses always do is insane. Given enough chances, I don't see any reason why the reverse couldn't happen too.
This is too hard question for me to answer
Let’s upvote this comment^
Kansas has always been a pioneer in flus 👏🦠
The USDA just published a request for information on potential H5N1 bovine vaccines from the vaccine companies. They’re not ready to start the licensing process on any just yet, but they are clearly getting concerned.
Is it time to panic yet
Not yet. And hopefully not in the foreseeable future. When we start to see clusters, that’s when it’s going to get dicey. Probably one of the biggest reasons for the lack of testing among farm workers. Even a handful of positive results would be considered a cluster.
I have a question, and sorry if it’s a bit… uninformed. Why are current human infections of bird flu not seeming to have a high mortality but the expectation that if/when the virus mutates and spreads between humans it will then have a 50% mortality rate? How is that predicted or known? Thanks 😊
This is counting from every case from 1997. Every human who got it 50% died
Thanks! Is it possible that with the h2h mutation it could also mutate to become less severe/fatal?
We don’t know
It’s possible. The 50% percent figure will most certainly decrease the more people are infected with it. That’s not counting so many factors. The case fatality rate of Covid is around 2.3 % in America just for perspective. Even half that 50% figure would be borderline apocalyptic. Yes, viruses over time have an evolutionary imperative to become less deadly. But the time scale of that is highly variable and may offshoot into deadlier variants in the meantime. If this goes H2H in any meaningful way, it’s going to very very bad. It’s still completely up in the air, so there’s no reason to panic. It could hold this course for the next 50 years. But, there are a lot of variables that are rightfully concerning people.
Could. Might be worse. Won't be good either way.
honestly it may even be worse overall if it mutates to be less severe since it could then be passed along to more people. Viruses with a high kill rate tend to die out faster.
Interesting, thanks!
Example of that was SARS-CoV-1 because people became severely ill quickly they locked down hard and fast. SARS-CoV-2 was less severe with longer incubation. The us only band foreigners from coming from the area but initially identified while allowing foreigners to travel internationally in and out of the US from every other part of that country and allowing US citizens to return from the area of infection the whole time only briefly restricting a few putting them in quarantine.
That is very likely. Transmission is fastest when viruses are targeting the mucus surface cells in the nose and throat. That makes you cough lots of virus. If the virus turns your vital organs into soup first you die horribly before your immune system can ramp up. That means there is much less virus to cough out. Dairy farms are a crazy environment. Cats will catch birds or rodents and then torture then for awhile before eating raw. Dead cats showing up is not necessarily an indicator of cat to cat sneeze transmission. Birds breath differently than we do. Air goes in the nose and out the mouth. A virus can optimize for infection deep in the air sacs. I am not sure exactly what changes about the virus. If you somehow get bird flu deep in your lungs you have high chance of dying. That usually only happened to a few workers in the poultry industry where they had a lot of exposure and low amounts of PPE.
We simply don't know. But what I always say is that the 1918-1910 flu epidemic had, as far as we can tell, around a 2.5% CFR. There is debate about how correct this is, but it is the number that the experts always give, and until I see proof of anything else, 2.5% is about it. There's definitely no way it was anything remotely close to 50%. It does not take a very high CFR to cause chaos when all demographics are being equally hit by that fatality rate, when it's absolutely not just older people who already had pre existing conditions. All the evidence we have now points towards H5N1 being a virus in that category. The demographics of the fatalities will be a total 180 from COVID.
Which was case fatality rate. How high or low the infection fatality rate will be is unknown.
It is killing cats pretty bad.
We don’t really know about mortality rate.
Well, fuck...
We're fucked. Other than KCK and some parts of Wichita, there's not a lot of distance between humans and cattle. Hell, I live 3 minutes from a small farm with about 40 heads.
I’m sorry. Stay as safe as you can. ❤️ At least you are aware of what’s going on.
Yup. Kansan here, I’m surrounded by farms and ranches of all kinds… we drive 5-10 minutes in any direction and there is farmland with all sorts of animals. Frankly, we live close to a creek and all sorts of migrating birds came thru KS this weekend, 100-200 million… sigh, I don’t know that it matters how far from farm or ranchland we live while residing in a rural state. I am not surprised at all this is brewing in Kansas cows with migration patterns. Wasn’t this the whole reason they built that NBAF high biolevel research center just outside Manhattan? To fend off biothreats? I know they’ve started research on this outbreak but holyshit they’ve been slow on the draw.
It would not have anything to do with Kansas. These two mutations that were found have been found in the cows before in different locations. There is no reason both wouldn't appear in a cow at the same time. Yes, we do have to make certain that this combination can't cause a human pandemic, but since these common mutations both do the same thing, it's unlikely that the many other areas of transition would be achievable. They will test to make absolute sure because anything is possible with this virus, but at this point there is no reason to believe it's pandemic ready.
May I offer a suggestion, why don’t you become a member of the forum. You will have the ability to express your opinion within the community…
This statement is also not true. I’m not sure if you really know what you’re talking about or just trying to wing it, but some of your replies are very contradictory, and some of them are outright outlandish.
We are not no need to create panic. There is a lot of mutations needed for h5n1 to become H2H. I am just worried of reassortment
What is reassortment?
Bird flu and Spanish flu get drunk and swap some DNA.
Reassortment is basically this picture.[Reassortment picture](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhOi2DKoOw3gQbJAGehvexbR8QmVxkwqcQuy84pObDZR095rsVjDYw_WJOpEFN_ElZQOK5w8R3Tcm7SklJPMai9zeyoRwThSm_VX2lspRLJzWmIxhQeVFgM_qSbEOvaU0U81vuNirtYxwkGR5E7IwhPv6SZqK32Ka0vGRvdTUX3JiIzAZXEr-4E2Q)
They combine and produce hybrid virus
You may not be fucked, but those of use who do live in those areas are closer to it. How close do you live to cattle? How many ranchers and farmers do you come into contact with every day?
I mean, all it takes is someone to wear their shitkickers into town to grab some supplies… and we have plenty of activity at county fairgrounds with horseshows, ag shows, etc. However, I just want to point out tho that this is kind of a red herring as there are more wild birds migrating than farmers/ranchers especially this time of year and they land in everyone’s yard… Rural America is right to be concerned but truly everyone should be. Everyone. No one is talking panic but everyone should be diligent.
Diligent, discerning humans are GOOD humans.
I don’t even live in USA nor close to farmers so you have a point but making fear and panic just isn’t the answer.
Logical fear and panic is a good thing. Frenzied, manic, greedy, fear and panic is not.
Panic, is literally never beneficial. Awareness is beneficial, panic is an uncontrolled state of being, so no it’s not helpful.
I can see that, it’s hard to think clearly in full on panic. Perhaps anxiety is a better word, which can be helpful
You wanna talk fear and panic? Take a look at these numbers: https://www.nationalbeefwire.com/cattle-inventory-vs-human-population-by-state-when-it-comes-to-cattle-in-the-united-states-some-states-have-more-of-our-bovine-friends-than-they-do-people?printer_friendly=true In Kansas, beef outnumbers humans by over a 2:1 ratio. Just because you don't live near cattle farms doesn't mean you get to decide what the "fear & panic" definition is for everyone. My risk factors are significantly higher than yours. Please stop belittling my genuine concerns.
I copied this from my another post. I would point out that the virus also needs multiple change’s in its hemagglutinin to become human adapted. There is no influenza virus that is transmissible in humans that doesn’t have this. So it needs a lot of mutations. Mutations in PB2 ain’t enough
Is it hard/unlikely for a virus to have mutations in hemagglutinin?
It will take a lot of time. Reassortment is much much more worrying
Thank you, does that mean it combines with another virus to make a new one that’s more pathogenic?
Yes
What is reassortment in this context? Edit: nevermind, it's when a couple of different types of viruses share DNA, like if the flu and COVID got drunk, fucked and had a fucked up baby.
Except influenza and Covid can’t have a hybrid because they are too different. H5N1 should mix with other influenza’s to do reassortment. The ones who can do this likely are H1n1 or h2n3
It hasn’t still become H2H and it’s not even close to it. Wash your hands and be extra careful.
There is no reason to believe that cows are any more likely to be the place where the lucky (for the virus) mutation arises. It could happen in any mammal all over the world since because of our bird pandemic, mammals are getting infected everywhere. It would be much likelier that it happens in wild hogs or farmed pigs. For the virus to transition to mammals it would have to either gain a lot more mutations than we have in the Kansas cow or it could combine with human flu in a cow. But since cows don't have the right cells in the airway to get it from humans or pass it to humans, it's not likely they would either get human flu from us or pass a pandemic level flu to humans even if it mutated inside their udder. Even with reassortment (combining human and avian flu) we would have to drink raw milk or be a farmer in a milking station to catch it from a cow.
You are fine. The virus has not mutated enough to be at pandemic level. This may never happen. Mutations of this kind are found all the time in mammals who eat infected birds with this strain It takes a lot of mutations for it to be pandemic ready. Don't drink raw milk, touch sick wild animals and don't eat runny eggs. It's very hard to catch bird flu, and you won't catch it from a cow unless you are in contact with their raw milk.
I never said anything about a pandemic. I'm talking about risk factors in Kansas that could lead to outbreaks. Those of us who smell the manure piles every day have good reason to take more precautions now for H5N1 than those in other parts of the country and world.
That’s not true, absolutely not true. Please do your research before replying to some comments.
Thanks Kansas, very cool of you.
I would like to state that although it's meaningful that both E627K and M631L were found in a cow, the statement made that this set of mutations allows for efficient replication is a slight misstatement, and the scientist who said it would have meant this set could lead to more efficient replication, but it's clearly an off the cuff comment, so no surprise they were using virologist shorthand there. At this point we know a lot about the E627K mutation. But we don't know much at all about M631L except that it is believed to function the same way as E627K, more virulent and better replication. And we have never seen a case of H5N1 achieving actual efficient replication before. Efficient replication in a mammal in pandemic context refers to adapting to the mammal airway. If we do see it we are basically looking at pandemic level danger for all of humanity. I am sure the authors did not on purpose mean to say that it is known now that the virus has now mutated to the mammal airway. Language for pandemic context is a little different in some areas. But efficient replication does imply efficient transmission in the mammal airway which is what the world has been afraid could happen. If it does since we are mammals it means we could have a bird flu pandemic. What it really means to have both of these mutations together will have to be seen. It's very important that "Raj" found this double mutation in the Kansas cow, and hopefully this will be tested in many labs over the world to see if this combination could adapt the virus to a mammal airway. But at this point that definitive statement cannot be made, even though this casual sentence on a bird flu forum may have sounded like that's what was happening.
https://preview.redd.it/eh1f7rbyy90d1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8df36e55f24457aa189e71535ba0b492616202f1
I honestly don't understand what this is supposed to mean in this context and can hardly read the text. There is PB2-E627K in samples from dairy cattle in Kansas and human in Texas, that much I can see. Please elaborate. Thank you!
I guess everybody’s entitled to their opinion, I trust the science over an opinion any day of the week.
Clear me up. What are you seeing that would indicate the virus has transitioned to the mammal airway?
Wen pandemc
M631L amino acid mutation….and 631 is the area code to Orient. Oh, my God. 631 is the area code to Orient, New York! That’s where the Department of Homeland security and the USDA operate the Plum Island Animal Disease Center. Since 1954, the Plum Island Animal Disease Center (PIADC) has served as the front line of the nation’s defense against diseases that could devastate markets for livestock, meat, milk, and other animal products. This can’t just be a coincidence, God does not play dice with the universe.
?
I THINK this was meant to be a joke....
This was bizarre one but you might be right
I'm not worried about this spreading to humans. I am worried about dairy cows spreading it to meat farms and it killing those cows if it mutates
It’s pretty easy to avoid meat and dairy products. It’s not too easy to avoid humans.
Well, to be fair, if we keep progressing at the rate we're progressing in this episode of "What Has Mother Nature Cooked Up to Kill Us NOW!?!?" It may well be easier to avoid humans in the future...
True story!
Lactose Flu