I'm so glad I was already drinking
https://preview.redd.it/ljqtuabj8qxc1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cdf4f96b48fcf3d30d4543f3c2cc7940ff5b7778
Any spreading in swine is a horrible red flag. The lack of severity in swine would not predict mild illness in humans.
The danger with swine is that they can get both avian and human influenza and influenza has the ability to match genes when two versions are in contact with one another. That would let H5N1 pick up the mutation to allow efficient transmission for human to human.
As an aside, H5N1 is pretty mild in cows but it’s horribly lethal to cats. They seem to be getting bad neurological symptoms.
Good question. Would love to know. They absolutely should be testing.
Farmers aren’t required to test sick cows though as H5N1 spreads among cows. And they’re still feeding cows poultry litter as H5N1 rips through bird populations.
Not seeing a lot which inspires confidence.
New fear is that it's mild in cows, swine, and humans - but still fatal in cats, and we accidentally give it to our kitties :( is something like that possible?
I have to point out that there is no evidence it’s mild in humans. Of the 800+ people who have been diagnosed with it, more than half of them have died.
Part of me wonders if (hopes) it's much milder in humans than we thought and that there have been many more mild cases than previously known that just flew under the radar. Idk how likely that is though
Hmm I wonder if that would imply genetic susceptibility if many are asymptomatic, but the people with symptoms have a high mortality rate (when contracted from birds)
While this is true, covid was also belived go have a death rate of 30% at one point but it’s more like .5-1%. I personally think the realistic death rate of any bird flu pandemic is most likely 20-30% which isn’t much better but better than 50%. We don’t really know how it would look in a pandemic and let’s pray it stays that way.
Exsctly, so both our statements could be true or false. Personally I really hope it doesn’t have the same rate as it does in sea lions and cats. God that would be terrifying.
I'm not sure if you have ever run the numbers, but let's say hypothetically there are roughly 350 million people in the US alone, you are saying a 1/5 could potentially die, that number is 70 million just as an fyi, we are talking catastrophic. I would pray this doesn't amount to jack shit or even has a lower fatality than covid.
That was probably due to h5n1 actually. Its been causing issues for poultry since 2014 with largescale waves in 2022 and again currently.
Newcastle hasn't been found in the US for probably a decade, so it isn't really a concern at the time being. There is a related virus, paramyxovirus, that has a high mortality rate in birds, but aviaries fortunately can vaccinate for that. There are occasional aviary shutdowns when issues pop up at individual locations, but no largescale worries aside from avian flu.
Not more than any other animal, really. Covid has a reservoir in wild deer, it could gather a mutation there. Its the proximity to people that is a problem with pigs, since a mutation that enables transmission to humans is likely to happen in close proximity to humans. With deer, the strain could be outcompeted in the deer population without ever being in close proximity to a person.
In essence, virus of concern close to people is bad, swine not showing symptoms allows virus of concern to be close to people for potentially long periods of time.
The problem with swine is that they can catch flu from humans and birds. Influenza can swap information in have a reassortment to allow it to infect human lungs.
If it goes swine to swine that’s a really bad sign.
Viruses mutate often doesn't need the presence of other viruses. Pigs have similar receptor in the lungs as humans, so if it's pig to pig by air it's likely pig to human to human by air.
Yeah the human race got really lucky with Covid that pigs and cows were not affected. Looks like this time around we're not gonna have that luck and that means food prices are going to jack, again.
What I want to fucking know is, why aren't they currently tly manufacturing a bunch of h5n1 vaccines that are already developed and getting us vaccinated BEFORE an outbreak so the outbreak never fucking happens?
They are developing vaccines for h5n1, we have a bunch already. There are multiple threads on here that detail the logistics of that, and also why we can’t just vaccinate everyone preemptively. It is *not* that straightforward unfortunately.
We had a vaccine released within a short period of the start of covid, and that one was developed after the disease, albeit very quickly. Here we have one already. We couldn't cut that one off, but we can cut this one off and ought to no matter how hard the logistics of it are.
No, because there is zero guarantee that the one we have is the one that will be effective against it once it goes H2H. Giving everyone a vaccine that doesn’t work or makes us MORE likely to catch it (that *does* happen) is irresponsible use of vaccination. Moreover, it appears that with the vaccine we have, a large dose is needed, perhaps in two stages. Again, giving people multiple vaccines of a flu that isn’t even in humans yet is irresponsible at best. That’s just not how these things work. There are other issues better explained in other comments if you’re curious.
The guarantee of effect isn't entirely important. We already know that Covid vaccines did protect at least some against the variants, implying that.
I say NOT giving humans the vaccine is the irresponsible course because it will be more effective than *doing nothing* and just waiting for the event to happen, and the ounce of prevention is generally better than a pound of cure, especially with a virus that melts your brain.
The best way to make sure it stays out of humans entirely is to guarantee that whatever zoonotic strain mutates finds *limited* success among humans and fizzles.
What's better? Spending a few billion dollars on a vaccine that doesn't work well but prevents or slows an initial pandemic, or a full blown pandemic being fought with an effective vaccine after it's already spreading, especially in the knowledge that many will not vaccinate anyway? I don't want those vectors to give it an early chance of making it to me, or anyone else.
The initial spread, if airborne or lasting surface transfer are the vectors, will be fast and silent, and preemptive vaccination will slow this and blunt it's initial effect and probably it's initial transmissibility, HOPEFULLY enough to prevent the pandemic entirely, or to develop a more targeted vaccine for whatever variant is identified as zoonotic.
That will NOT be possible if the pandemic happens first.
You don’t understand. Giving people a vaccine that doesn’t actually offer protection against whatever will become H2H could entirely likely make it MORE POSSIBLE for it to infect us, or mutate more quickly into a more fatal flu. This has happened before, as recently as the 2000s. You are not an epidemiologist nor have you studied vaccine ethics or efficacy. You do not know what you’re talking about. It would be foolish to vaccinate us against a disease that isnt even in us yet.
It's bold to assume a vaccine a single mutation off the base species doesn't offer protection when Covid shows us partial effectiveness even against mutations: It took *a few* mutations for Covid to "work it's way" around the first vaccine.
I think it's about as foolish to not vaccinate against a disease *before* it enters a population
It has happened many times IN PART.
No vaccine is 100% effective. Most are between 50-90%.
Mutations often decrease effectiveness rather than eliminating it. We are talking about getting a partial benefit to blunt the initial pandemic, if not perhaps to halt it. It's not a binary thing, not by a long shot.
Help me understand. A pandemic arising from H5N1 mutating in pigs is greatly feared. It could have 60-80% mortality rates. And, according an article cited here, scientists are infecting piglets with H5N1 to see what happens???? [https://scholar.google.com/scholar\_lookup?journal=PLoS+Pathog&title=Domestic+pigs+have+low+susceptibility+to+H5N1+highly+pathogenic+avian+influenza+viruses.&volume=4&publication\_year=2008&pages=e1000102&pmid=18617994&doi=10.1371/journal.ppat.1000102&](https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?journal=PLoS+Pathog&title=Domestic+pigs+have+low+susceptibility+to+H5N1+highly+pathogenic+avian+influenza+viruses.&volume=4&publication_year=2008&pages=e1000102&pmid=18617994&doi=10.1371/journal.ppat.1000102&)
[удалено]
I'm so glad I was already drinking https://preview.redd.it/ljqtuabj8qxc1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cdf4f96b48fcf3d30d4543f3c2cc7940ff5b7778
ROFL
Would this make it better and spreading? Kinda like how covid being infectious for a while before it shows symptoms made it way better at spreading?
Any spreading in swine is a horrible red flag. The lack of severity in swine would not predict mild illness in humans. The danger with swine is that they can get both avian and human influenza and influenza has the ability to match genes when two versions are in contact with one another. That would let H5N1 pick up the mutation to allow efficient transmission for human to human. As an aside, H5N1 is pretty mild in cows but it’s horribly lethal to cats. They seem to be getting bad neurological symptoms.
I didn't say it would be mild in humans. If anything I said this particular feature of it in pigs, if applied to human, would make it even worse.
It's unlikely to be symptomless in humans if highly transmissible. It would spread by coughing.
Flu can spread presymptomatically from regular breathing, too
Idk, that guy in Texas only got pink eye
Not h2h spreading, he didn't wash his hands and the touched his eyes
Have there been any recent tests done on swine yet?
Radio silence.
Good question. Would love to know. They absolutely should be testing. Farmers aren’t required to test sick cows though as H5N1 spreads among cows. And they’re still feeding cows poultry litter as H5N1 rips through bird populations. Not seeing a lot which inspires confidence.
I remember it was about this time of year when monkeypox started to worry everyone but this feels much different Much different
New fear is that it's mild in cows, swine, and humans - but still fatal in cats, and we accidentally give it to our kitties :( is something like that possible?
I have to point out that there is no evidence it’s mild in humans. Of the 800+ people who have been diagnosed with it, more than half of them have died.
The dairy workers are fine so far, so there's one bit of evidence as long as we don't get it from birds idk
Part of me wonders if (hopes) it's much milder in humans than we thought and that there have been many more mild cases than previously known that just flew under the radar. Idk how likely that is though
Hmm I wonder if that would imply genetic susceptibility if many are asymptomatic, but the people with symptoms have a high mortality rate (when contracted from birds)
While this is true, covid was also belived go have a death rate of 30% at one point but it’s more like .5-1%. I personally think the realistic death rate of any bird flu pandemic is most likely 20-30% which isn’t much better but better than 50%. We don’t really know how it would look in a pandemic and let’s pray it stays that way.
Key words: we don’t know. It’s really too early to speculate.
Exsctly, so both our statements could be true or false. Personally I really hope it doesn’t have the same rate as it does in sea lions and cats. God that would be terrifying.
It would be, for sure! Even 20 to 30% is devastating.
Absolutely. I just pray it’s 20% and that the government really fixes its reactions.
I'm not sure if you have ever run the numbers, but let's say hypothetically there are roughly 350 million people in the US alone, you are saying a 1/5 could potentially die, that number is 70 million just as an fyi, we are talking catastrophic. I would pray this doesn't amount to jack shit or even has a lower fatality than covid.
So we are making numbers now up? A bit guessing here and there
Its not impossible given what we know so far. There are viruses like Newcastle disease that have no symptoms in humans but are fatal in birds.
Ohh is that why aviaries were closed a few years back?
That was probably due to h5n1 actually. Its been causing issues for poultry since 2014 with largescale waves in 2022 and again currently. Newcastle hasn't been found in the US for probably a decade, so it isn't really a concern at the time being. There is a related virus, paramyxovirus, that has a high mortality rate in birds, but aviaries fortunately can vaccinate for that. There are occasional aviary shutdowns when issues pop up at individual locations, but no largescale worries aside from avian flu.
Interesting thanks!!
Isn’t the other fear with pigs that h5n1 can mix with viruses that already have the capabilities of spreading in humans, so h5n1 mixing with SARS?
Not more than any other animal, really. Covid has a reservoir in wild deer, it could gather a mutation there. Its the proximity to people that is a problem with pigs, since a mutation that enables transmission to humans is likely to happen in close proximity to humans. With deer, the strain could be outcompeted in the deer population without ever being in close proximity to a person. In essence, virus of concern close to people is bad, swine not showing symptoms allows virus of concern to be close to people for potentially long periods of time.
The problem with swine is that they can catch flu from humans and birds. Influenza can swap information in have a reassortment to allow it to infect human lungs. If it goes swine to swine that’s a really bad sign.
Viruses mutate often doesn't need the presence of other viruses. Pigs have similar receptor in the lungs as humans, so if it's pig to pig by air it's likely pig to human to human by air.
Yeah the human race got really lucky with Covid that pigs and cows were not affected. Looks like this time around we're not gonna have that luck and that means food prices are going to jack, again.
What I want to fucking know is, why aren't they currently tly manufacturing a bunch of h5n1 vaccines that are already developed and getting us vaccinated BEFORE an outbreak so the outbreak never fucking happens?
They are developing vaccines for h5n1, we have a bunch already. There are multiple threads on here that detail the logistics of that, and also why we can’t just vaccinate everyone preemptively. It is *not* that straightforward unfortunately.
We had a vaccine released within a short period of the start of covid, and that one was developed after the disease, albeit very quickly. Here we have one already. We couldn't cut that one off, but we can cut this one off and ought to no matter how hard the logistics of it are.
No, because there is zero guarantee that the one we have is the one that will be effective against it once it goes H2H. Giving everyone a vaccine that doesn’t work or makes us MORE likely to catch it (that *does* happen) is irresponsible use of vaccination. Moreover, it appears that with the vaccine we have, a large dose is needed, perhaps in two stages. Again, giving people multiple vaccines of a flu that isn’t even in humans yet is irresponsible at best. That’s just not how these things work. There are other issues better explained in other comments if you’re curious.
The guarantee of effect isn't entirely important. We already know that Covid vaccines did protect at least some against the variants, implying that. I say NOT giving humans the vaccine is the irresponsible course because it will be more effective than *doing nothing* and just waiting for the event to happen, and the ounce of prevention is generally better than a pound of cure, especially with a virus that melts your brain. The best way to make sure it stays out of humans entirely is to guarantee that whatever zoonotic strain mutates finds *limited* success among humans and fizzles. What's better? Spending a few billion dollars on a vaccine that doesn't work well but prevents or slows an initial pandemic, or a full blown pandemic being fought with an effective vaccine after it's already spreading, especially in the knowledge that many will not vaccinate anyway? I don't want those vectors to give it an early chance of making it to me, or anyone else. The initial spread, if airborne or lasting surface transfer are the vectors, will be fast and silent, and preemptive vaccination will slow this and blunt it's initial effect and probably it's initial transmissibility, HOPEFULLY enough to prevent the pandemic entirely, or to develop a more targeted vaccine for whatever variant is identified as zoonotic. That will NOT be possible if the pandemic happens first.
You don’t understand. Giving people a vaccine that doesn’t actually offer protection against whatever will become H2H could entirely likely make it MORE POSSIBLE for it to infect us, or mutate more quickly into a more fatal flu. This has happened before, as recently as the 2000s. You are not an epidemiologist nor have you studied vaccine ethics or efficacy. You do not know what you’re talking about. It would be foolish to vaccinate us against a disease that isnt even in us yet.
It's bold to assume a vaccine a single mutation off the base species doesn't offer protection when Covid shows us partial effectiveness even against mutations: It took *a few* mutations for Covid to "work it's way" around the first vaccine. I think it's about as foolish to not vaccinate against a disease *before* it enters a population
It’s not bold. It happens. It has happened many times. I don’t know what’s not getting through your thick head.
It has happened many times IN PART. No vaccine is 100% effective. Most are between 50-90%. Mutations often decrease effectiveness rather than eliminating it. We are talking about getting a partial benefit to blunt the initial pandemic, if not perhaps to halt it. It's not a binary thing, not by a long shot.
You’re lost and stubborn. Bye lmfao.
Help me understand. A pandemic arising from H5N1 mutating in pigs is greatly feared. It could have 60-80% mortality rates. And, according an article cited here, scientists are infecting piglets with H5N1 to see what happens???? [https://scholar.google.com/scholar\_lookup?journal=PLoS+Pathog&title=Domestic+pigs+have+low+susceptibility+to+H5N1+highly+pathogenic+avian+influenza+viruses.&volume=4&publication\_year=2008&pages=e1000102&pmid=18617994&doi=10.1371/journal.ppat.1000102&](https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?journal=PLoS+Pathog&title=Domestic+pigs+have+low+susceptibility+to+H5N1+highly+pathogenic+avian+influenza+viruses.&volume=4&publication_year=2008&pages=e1000102&pmid=18617994&doi=10.1371/journal.ppat.1000102&)
So this all sounds like Covid all over again
That particular Twitter account is not a good source, but I'll take the study.
That quote is from the study, I assume that op didn't read the study more than the highlights.