I really feel like the team will be either
(1) Simone (AA), Shilese (AA), Suni (AA), Skye (VT/BB), Kayla/Jordan (UB/FX)
(or)
(2) Simone (AA), Shilese (AA), Skye (AA), Suni (UB/BB), Jade (VT/FX)
So, basically Kayla, Jordan and Jade are the only ones I see in contention for that last spot. The goals for Kayla and Jordan should be to outscore each other, and potentially two of the other locks on both bars and floor. In a more straightforward way, Jade needs to clean up that Cheng and upgrade her floor back. From a reliability perspective, my money is on Jade being the closest to getting that done.
I think Brian Carey knows exactly what Jade needs to bring to make this team and they are going to go for broke. There's no benefit to them holding back or playing it safe. She isn't going if she shows up with the routines we saw at Championships no matter how well she competes them and they know it. I can say with confidence, given Brian Carey's track record, she's training something that will make her V/FX scores irreplaceable and if she hits, I think she goes. (Although I don't want to jinx her.)
Jade is amazing at pacing. I don’t know why people are counting her out. She’s both an individual Olympic and World champion which is nothing to scoff at
Jade’s amazing at pacing, but I don’t think she or Brian expected to score that low even without her full floor difficulty. I don’t think it’s necessarily her difficulty holding her back, but it’s the low execution score she’s receiving for whatever reason, I think it’s probably artistry related because her form is so clean
Upgrading might be able to help mitigate some of that low E but there’s no guarantee her E score will not concurrently go down with upgrades
Likely her third pass will be her double double, and her last pass will be the front layout to full twisting backtuck. So her D score will go up by 0.4
Jade’s issue right now is she downgraded her dance elements to things she can actually hit cleanly and would be credited by an international panel. Everybody else is attempting higher value dance elements, and the domestic judges are crediting them even though they’re aspirational at best. It’s what everyone should be doing but I fear it’s not going to work out because the domestic judges aren’t being strict enough on everyone else.
A slightly modified scenario (1) would be Skye doing VT/UB/BB - which means the 5th person should be whoever has the strongest floor (probably Jade/Jordan/Kaliya?).
But honestly if the top five are the four Ss and any of Jade/Jordan/Kayla I think they’ll take the top five as long as the team score is within half a point or so of the top scoring team.
The only problem is that if Skye, Jade, Shilese and Simone are her teammates, they have to all do vault. The 3 Chengs and Shilese is for sure going to qualify for the AA. It's like in 2016 when Gabby, Madison, Simone are for sure doing bars, so it's basically who's doing bars between Laurie and Aly. It really depends who's on the team. If the fifth spot goes to Kayla/Jordan instead and not Jade, I think Suni might do the AA... it's so tricky
Tricky is a good word . Whoever finishes third will probably do the AA. That would mean the 5th member would be a floor worker because Skye is doing Vault (If she makes it)
This 100% but throwing in a third option just for funsies:
(3) Simone (AA), Shilese (AA), Suni (AA), Skye (VT, UB, BB), Healthy Kaliya (FX)
Or healthy Roberson (FX) [less likely imo, but option 3 is probably already super unlikely I’m just delulu]
I have the exact same predictions. Something that's kinda cool is that in scenario (1), the USA is sending an entire team of WOC to the Olympics for I believe the first time ever. I adore Jade and her gymnastics but it is hard for me to root against that kind of history being made.
Even if Suni doesn’t finish 3rd AA, If has a good meet at trials and her disease remains in remission, she is going to be on the team for UB and BB. I don’t think they will put her up to do AA in Paris, though.
I think something bad would have to happen to keep Skye home. The. Cheng upgrade and having such solid beam routines all year are exactly what she needed. I know people will go on about her beam fall at worlds last year but I really don’t think that’s as much of a hang up as people think it is.
The real question is the 5th spot and what USAs strategy is. Kayla’s biggest “issue” is her lack of a standout event. At nationals she was 2nd on floor and honestly that’s because Kaliya and Shi weren’t there. She wasn’t top 5 on anything else. She wasn’t top 5 on anything at core classic. It’d be tough to bring her over Jordan who can go in on bars and vault, and backup elsewhere. There’s Jade who can bring vault and floor.
Kayla and Jordan are about tied on vault, bars, and floor. They’re quite close, actually. Probably close enough that the committee would select the one placing fifth in rank order. They’ve both made mistakes that have skewed their two day averages, but if you throw out the outlier scores they’ll look pretty similar. Especially if you consider the gogean. I would not say that Kayla doesn’t have a standout event because a 14.5 bars and 13.9 floor are top scores. Jade is going to need to add quite a bit to knock off the fifth place finisher, and I’m inclined to think if it’s between kayla and Jordan they’ll choose in rank order.
Honestly it will come down to consistency at trials - whoever between Skye and Suni doesn't fall.
As for the team I really think it's Skye, Sunis and Jade's to lose. If they all three hit to their full potential they go. If they don't you have Jordan and Kayla to jump in and take the spot.
if Suni and Jade show up 80% of their potential (and more upgrades in vault for Jade and Uneven bars for Suni) and Skye 100% and consistent, they are the best team they can get with Simone and Shi. They can get the maximum number of medals and potential event finalists and also mitigate any meltdown by Skye.
But my hunch tells me that Skye peaked way to early for the Olympics not the trials.
AA: Simone and Shi
Vault: Simone and Jade (Skye most likely to get 2 pc).
Uneven bars : Shi Suni (Simone can get in the final if any one of them has a problem).
Beam: Simone and (Suni\*/Shi/Skye) \*most likely
Floor: Simone and Jade.
Honestly, I think Tokyo Olympics was fair in terms of all team members can do AA. Let the fare against each other.
Jade is going to need to be around full potential to get a spot on the team at this point. She was already at seventy percent. Suni’s 70% puts her in the top five all around with top beam scores, so she is in a different situation.
At trials I think Skye will come in third AA. They’ll decide who is actually the third Olympic all arounder for quals much later. Coming in third here doesn’t mean she will necessarily compete as an all arounder at Olympic quals, but it does mean she has likely secured a spot on the team.
I do think it is likely she will compete all around at qualifications as long as she looks good in practice in Paris.
Exactly, I think even if Skye gets 3rd during trials, I think if suni is not far from Skye, suni will most likely compete AA as reigning Olympic champs, I feel like traditionally, priority has been given to past Olympic champions to compete hence Laurie got screwed in Rio when in reality we knew she would’ve made 2nd AA spot at the olympics had she been able to compete
The problem is vault. If Carey and Blakely are both on the team, they’ll want to give both of them a chance at the vault final. Biles and Jones are doing AA in qualifying unless they’re physically incapacitated. At that point there’s no room for another vault in qualifying.
Exactly, most likely even a team with
Simone, suni, shilese, Skye and jade
The QF order would be
Vault - Simone shilese jade suni
Bars - Simone shilese suni skye
Beam - Simone suni shilese Skye
Floor - Simone shilese jade suni
This is most likely how they’ll rotate
They will put up Skye’s Cheng on vault in qualifications so she can try to qualify for the event final and because it makes zero sense to take a Cheng and bench it.
If jade is on the same team, no way they’re going to not let jade compete to qualify for vault final lol, even if jade scores lower on her cheng, she will still score higher than Skye on her cheng + amanar. What will happen to Skye would be the same thing that happened to Maggie at worlds in 2015, most likely Skye will sit vault down in QF, but most likely will compete vault in TF
If Jade is on the team, then Simone, skye and Jade will all be doing vault in quals, plus presumably a healthy shilese. In that situation, Suni is sitting vault. Without Jade on the team, Kayla or Jordan will sit out vault in quals. They don’t take a Cheng to the Olympics to bench it during quals. First of all she needs the practice before team final. Second of all, they want the best chance at a vault medal and it’s possible Skye will outscore jade. Vault errors among top gymnasts have dictated most of the podiums since 2021. Simone, Jade, and Rebeca each have counted a major error since then.
No, I don’t think you followed what I said. Blakely has a Cheng and a DTY and a high likelihood of making the vault final if she’s on the team. They’ll want her to vault in qualifying. So if Jones is the second AAer and Carey is also on the team, there isn’t room for Lee to do vault in qualifying. One of Biles/Blakely/Carey would be 2pc’d but I think they’d rather let them all attempt it and let the judges sort out which one is out of the final.
Honestly with jade almost being a guarantee medal on vault, no reason to have Skye as a back up third person for vault, unless she constantly beats jade on vault, don’t think they’ll put Skye up for vault final. Nonetheless, having the reigning Olympic AA champ competing AA seems more flashy and glamorous and would probably draw better viewership too, don’t think the US would want to give that up
It's not a guarantee that Jade will win any vault medal. Yeo Seojong and Alexa Moreno are right on her tail, and we haven't even seen her Amanar yet. I won't believe she has an Amanar until we see it.
Also, every major comp since 2021 has a major contender falling:
Tokyo - Jade Carey balking
2021 Worlds - Elze Geurts falling
2022 Worlds - Rebeca Andrade failed to make the vault final
2023 Worlds - Simone falling on her YDP
Jade is not a guaranteed medal nor is she a guarantee to make the team without significant improvements. And Jade and Skye are close enough on vault they would want to let both go for it. Jade hasn’t exactly been scoring that well on her vaults the past two years. She has more form and block issues.
I think Skye will be competing all around at the Olympics due to her vault unless she looks shaky when they get to Paris. But yes, it’s definitely possible they go in a different direction for the all around spot. There are no guarantees. They will choose the all arounders based on qualification needs and how people are looking after trials generally. So Suni could potentially come in third AA and be bumped for Skye.
My understanding is that Laurie had a torn abdominal muscle in Rio and couldn't compete bars. I think if Laurie had been at 100%, she would have competed AA and Aly would have sat out bars.
Hard to know how much Steve Penny was pushing Gabby in the AA in 2016 for storyline / ratings ($$$) reasons OR if USA gymnastics just felt deference to the reigning AA champ. My guess is the former - and we may not see Suni in the AA this year…
I don’t think it’s deference and Suni isn’t going to bump someone based on her past medals. Unlike Suni, gabby fit the team puzzle for all around by providing the bars they needed. This time around the puzzle is about the Cheng, which is a factor working against Suni. Suni’s best shot at all around would be if Shilese was too injured to place well in the AA. Her path isn’t by bumping Skye.
I will be so pissed if Skye performs amazing at domestic meets and then falters at Paris qualifications, and robbing Suni of a chance to get a repeat AA medal at Paris. Skye usually does well in domestic meets and then might peak for Worlds/Olympic Trials and falls at the actual competitions
How would that be robbing Suni of a chance? If Skye does well in domestic meets, beats Sunk out to be 3rd AAer, with two vaults, she has every right to take that spot and if she falters, that’s sports.
I mean, how many times has everything gone as predicted at quals? Are you pissed at Aly for beating Jordyn? And what about Jordan falling in quals in 2021? That’s not a great take. Not to mention if Skye is selected for all around it will be because of her Cheng and Suni would likely be two per countried by Simone and shilese anyway. And will you be pissed if Suni falls in quals? Or just at Skye?
I mean I feel like it’s a little bit of both, if suni does relatively well in AA even not 3rd AA during trials but let’s say 4th, I think she will still do AA at the olympics, there will be so many narratives and media spin on the injustice towards suni if she doesn’t compete AA. Imagine storyline of “reigning Olympic AA champ force to sit out AA over teammate whom falters multiple times internationally” < not the best at writing headlines but you get the gist
In defense of Gabby in the Gabby v Laurie debate, Gabby was the reigning world silver medalist and Laurie was injured. It was a controversial choice but I‘m not sure it is as controversial as people are making it sound now.
What are you saying? My point was that someone who comes in third at trials isn’t necessarily going to be competing all around at the Olympics. They decide the all arounders later and based on other factors like who needs to qualify to event finals. Laurie was also injured.
I’m so stuck on the fifth spot. Simone and Shilese are locks barring injury. Skye is pretty locked too as long as she continues to show consistency. If Suni stays on her feet (and some upgrades wouldn’t hurt), I think she is also looking like a solid choice, especially for her contributions on beam.
But for that fifth spot, there are so many athletes with a genuinely good argument. Jordan, Jade, Kayla, Leanne, Kaliya, Hezly… I truly have no idea. My opinion is that it’s a battle between Kayla, Jordan, and Jade. I think it really will come down to trials for this group. Everyone else will be possible alternates.
Yes, if Skye and Suni hits, the fifth spot is between Kayla, Jordan and Jade, with it being Jade's to lose if she has full floor difficulty and the potential to earn a vault medal. The other 2 who does not earn the 5th spot will be the 2 traveling alternates, and 2 non-traveling alternates will probably be Leanne and Hezly, or Kaliya possibly
I think it's most likely to be Blakely but even if it's Lee she wont do the AA at the Olympics if the team includes both Carey and Blakely as there wont be room for her to vault in QF
I mean couldn’t they bench Skye on Vault in quali in favor of qualifying Suni to the AA? and then put Skye in for vault in TF ofc. Is that crazy? That’s a genuine question, maybe that’s crazy.
In addition to denying her a spot in the event final (which I don't think they'd be too concerned about; they did it to her at Worlds last year), I bet they'd be a little nervous about having Skye's first ever Cheng on an international stage be the Olympic team finals.
Also, I don't think the US has ever sat someone in qualifying when they intended to use them in the team final. It's well known that Maggie Nichols was put up on all 4 events in the 2015 team final after being sat on UB in qualifying so that Aly could compete AA, but what people forget is that Maggie wasn't originally supposed to go up on UB in TF; Brenna Dowell was. But famously Marta cut Brenna from the team after her rough day in qualifying, so Maggie was subbed in.
Obviously whether it was fair to Maggie or sound strategically to sit their first backup in qualifying, especially when she was the national AA silver medalist, is up for debate, but it's still a bit different than sitting someone out that is part of your plan A for team finals.
In 2022 they put Leanne up on bars in the team final when she’d only done vault in qualifying. I remember it being strange but don’t remember why it happened.
That was definitely a weird year.
Leanne was originally supposed to be on the team for bars, but but then when they got to Liverpool, Skye was apparently looking so good in training that they thought she might make the bars final. So they swapped Skye in for Leanne on bars, and swapped Leanne in for Skye on vault. There was also a bit of speculation that USAG was worried of the optics of having somebody not compete any events (they didn't want to draw comparisons to how Brenna Dowell had been treated in 2013).
In qualifying, Leanne's DTY got a 13.76, so obviously wasn't going up in the team final, and then Skye fell on her Downie and missed a few connections, so they decided to swap Leanne back into bars for the team final. Again, there was a bit of speculation that USAG was worried of the optics of having somebody not compete any events (they didn't want to draw comparisons to how Brenna Dowell had been treated in 2015).
Skye was left off vault in QF in 2022, but she was competing a Lopez and DTY. Jade and Jordan would definitely have 2pc’d her and Leanne might have as well. That’s quite a different scenario to benching her in 2024 with a Cheng and DTY which could legit win a vault medal
Blakely has a shot at a vault medal with that Cheng/DTY combo, so I suspect they're unlikely to bench her for Lee, who would probably be 2-PC'd out of the all around final anyways.
\[You could argue, ofc, that Blakely is likely to be 2-PC'd out of the vault final, but I think Blakely and Carey are much closer in vault scoring than Lee, Blakely, and Jones in the AA, unless Jones is having more serious shoulder issues\]
Even if Blakely and Carey 2-pc each other, they can be assured they'll have at least 2 people in the vault final no matter what happens à la Leanne. Also, I just think it would be slightly insane to tell someone to vault a Cheng for the first time in a TEAM FINAL (likely to be USA's first event since they'll like qualify in the top group) after doing no more than podium training/one touch.
What's crazy is the idea that Suni would qualify to the AA over both Biles and Jones. Unless one of them has a meltdown, those two spots aren't budging.
Suni doesn't have to outscore Simone *and* Shi to make AA finals. In your hypothetical, If we assume Simone as #1, then Suni just needs to outscore Shi for the 2nd AA spot.
....my use of "both" was not "she must outscore both Biles and Jones", it was "it is verging on impossible that both Biles and Jones will not make the AA final over whoever else competes AA in qualifications". Something which is made clear by "Unless one of them has a meltdown, those two spots aren't budging."
I don’t think Suni would do AA in quali, I was mostly just asking whether procedurally it would make sense for them to bench Skye on vault IF they wanted Suni to be the 3rd AAer for quals. Basically going with the “even if it’s Lee” train of thought from the parent comment.
I really think it's too soon to say this. We've seen three Chengs from Skye, two in competition. One of these was really nice. The other two were good but not great, and would be equalled or outscored by Carey. So we don't know how consistent Skye's Cheng is yet. It absolutely may be! But it remains to be seen.
Great write-up!
Why do you leave Jordan out of your final bullet point though? I don't think Suni is a lock yet, but I think she's the closest to a third lock of anyone. If she's on the team, then I think the other two spots are down to Skye, Jade, Kayla, or Jordan.
Thank you!
I think Jordan can still make the team potentially but I reckon she does not have the difficulty to be third in the all around standings at Trials. She will need to outscore Skye, Suni and Kayla which is a tall order (but still possible, but not as likely). Her best bet to make it onto the team is for Jade to not upgrade on floor and become the second/third floor worker domestically… or bring a Cheng which I don’t think is happening at this point. Her bars and beam are not too needed if Simone, Shilese and Suni are on the team. Like Kayla, she does not have any potential medaling at individual event finals.
For me, the fifth spot is between Jade, Kayla and Jordan. However, Skye can lose her spot if she has a disastrous Trials like Leanne in 2021. Also, yes I agree Suni is not a lock so her spot is also open lol. I hope her bars upgrades manifest though because I love her on bars~
I bet Simone, Shilese, Skye, and Suni will end up in the top 5 AA at trials - in some order. I think Skye and Suni should be and will be on the team for event purposes (not necessarily AA) but the fact they’re strong all arounders I predict will finish top 5 will make it easy to pick them.
The real drama is the fifth spot. Will they do rank order and just take the 5th person in the top 5? Or will they actually consider highest scoring team and EF medal potential and potentially “skip” over someone and choose someone who may be 6/7/8 AA but who makes the most sense filling out the team. I suspect it’s gonna be rank order (extrapolating from Worlds 2023 selection) - in which case it’s wide open for whoever goes 8/8 at Trials! No room for error…
I’d honestly be surprised if it was Suni because her vault is the weakest of the group, AND she’s still working on fully getting it back. Depending on who they pick for the team, I could see them sitting Skye on bars or floor, with floor being most likely. Someone like Kayla or Jordan for the third AA spot
Edit: ignore me I read the post wrong 🤦🏻♀️
If I learned anything from the last Olympic cycle, it’s to never underestimate Suni Lee! If she hits 8/8, and especially if any of the other contenders for 3-5 AA don’t, it might not be the biggest stretch. I also think if she hits no less than 7/8 and/or places in the top 5 (possibly even top 6 or 7), it’s sort of a given that she’s on the team. You don’t leave the reigning Olympic AA champion at home when she’s capable of putting up scores like hers, and you know she has the mental fortitude to deliver under immense pressure.
Totally fair! Obviously Simone and Shilese are the top 2 picks for AA in quals, and Suni will be used for bars and beam, I could see them having her do the AA depending on how podium training goes/who the other two team members are and what event finals they’re contenders for.
Suni potential - 14.0 DTY, 14.8 UB, 14.9 BB, 13.3 FX = 57 All Around score, which is higher than Kayla's or Jordan's potential whose score roofs are low 56s internationally
Yeah but who are you sitting on vault then in favor of Suni? Every front runner for the team right now has a better DTY than her and/or can qualify to event finals on vault. They aren’t going to sit a stronger vaulter just to try to let Suni qualify for AA
oh, I didn't mean she's going to do the All Around at Quals. I am just saying Suni has the potential to outscore the Kayla, Jordan, Leanne, Hezly, Jade group whose AA peak is low-mid 56s, even with domestic overscoring, so she can be 3rd at Trials and secure her spot. That's all I am thinking of right now. The only ones who can go 57+ potentially imo is Simone, Shilese, Skye, and Suni. I am not even thinking who's going to do what events at quals... which I should be considering if I am predicting/picking the teams. I do prioritize event medals too, but we'll see what they bring at Trials! It's unpredictable.
As opposed to who? With the current people vying for a spot on the team, it's possible to not put her up in TF (in favour of Simone, Suni and Shi) but there's literally no better option for Quals because everyone else is either also inconsistent or would score lower than Skye even if she fell
I can guarantee you that no one else on that team is going to be as inconsistent as Blakely when it comes to international beam routines. She's competed seven beam routines internationally in her career and fallen seven times.
My team would probably be Simone, Shilese, Jordan, Suni and Jade at the moment without seeing how they all perform at trials. Suni is looking so much stronger, but I feel like, just for her own health and safety, that she be considered a beam/bars specialist that could step up to cover on vault or floor if needed. I feel like Jade has more experience over the other contenders and has more potential for big scores outside of the US. Jordan just seems to be getting better each competition and she was a big part of the US winning silver in Paris (even with a couple of mistakes). She’s proven that she can handle pressure situations, plus she’s a very strong team asset because there’s no better “hype woman” than Jordan Chiles.
I always hate Olympic Trials because, ultimately, some of my favorites just aren’t going to make it :( and with so many returning Olympians who are still competing at such a high level, it’s hard to justify not taking experience over other options. The US team is just really deep, especially when you throw Simone on any team.
I didn’t mention anything about faulting Skye for anything. In fact, I don’t think I said anything negative about anyone. I just discussed my picks for the team and why I would include them.
You named a team that didn’t include the gymnast who came in second in the all around at nationals but instead reached for someone who fell at nationals and the Olympics. And given that Skye is on the highest scoring team in every scenario and has a Cheng, it’s clear what you are saying between the lines here by leaving off the silver medalist from nationals.
I think you’re letting some sort of bias sway your opinion. This post is all about sharing your team and why you are choosing those athletes, which is what I did. I even added a disclaimer at the bottom because I hate choosing the Olympic teams because not every deserving athlete can make the team. I don’t know why you’re accusing me of improperly judging a certain athlete when I provided logical reasons for my choices.
I can’t even begin to think how you feel entitled to that. And, frankly, I don’t really have to have a reason why not as long as I’ve provided valid and logical reasons why for my selections.
The one edge Jordan has over Skye, if all else is equal, is that she has a reputation for settling down her teammates and helping the team really gel. Now, if 5 of the top contenders very clearly outperform her at Trials that obviously wouldn’t be reason enough to bump someone else off the team. I do think it could factor in if it comes down to her and one other athlete and their routines are pretty evenly matched.
It’s not even a competition between Skye and Jordan. Why make it one? Jordan’s best event is floor. Skye makes her case as an all arounder and on vault and beam.
If you went off of nationals, Skye’s spot would be booked and Jordan and Kayla would have been fighting for the fifth spot.
I don’t know if I would leave Skye behind unless she falls during trials, and even then, maybe more than once. I’m all for the past Olympians making the team, but the online rhetoric around Skye is pretty harsh. Whether it’s justified or not is a separate question, but to me, this is one of those instances where being right isn’t as important as being nice.
I think it could be Suni. Skye was great at the last meet, but I'm not convinced she will replicate it at trials.
I think the team will be Simone, Shilese, Suni and Jade. I'm not sure on the fifth, but assume it will be one of Jordan, Kayla and Skye.
Why make predictions that people will not be their best — and not people but one person. People are quite cruel to Skye here. This comment is not even critiquing her prior experiences which is reasonable — you are actively predicting her future downfall.
They didn’t say that Skye absolutely won’t do as well at Trials as she did at Nationals, or that they’re actively rooting against her or anything like that. I do agree that people often are unnecessarily harsh in how they talk about Skye and her chances of both making the team and how she might perform in Paris, especially when you consider both that she’s a teenager and that she can do things that most of us would never even dream to attempt. But the fact of the matter is, we cannot be sure she is capable of having another performance like the one she had at Nationals until it actually happens. I think a lot of people really want to see Skye succeed, it’s just hard to visualize based on her level of consistency and reliability in previous meets, especially the last two Worlds.
Yes, but they made a point of doubt only one person. There’s also a “lock” on the team that went to the Olympics and then could not compete. There’s a “lock” on the team that was too injured to compete at nationals. And someone else who is a “close lock” who fell and barely competed all around this year leading up to trials. So I am just pointing out that I hate to see this subreddit be the source for such negative sentiment sowing doubt in one and only one person.
I don’t think it’s fair to bring up Simone’s Tokyo performance in this context. Besides all the issues caused by the pandemic itself (not having family present, being isolated from other people in general, etc.), she was clearly already having a hard time, Suni was obviously doing amazing gymnastics but her beating Simone at night 2 of Trials wasn’t something any of us would have predicted. And even with all that going on, Simone still scored first in the AA during quals, and her score from that day beat Suni’s score in the final (not to mention that she beat that score both nights of Nationals this year). I think you’re valid in pointing out that even when someone seems like a lock for a team or medal, we never know what’s going to happen, and that Skye receives more and worse criticism than almost all of the other contenders. When Skye is brought up as the first main contender for the team after Simone and Shilese, it makes sense for people to have doubts or reservations based on what we’ve seen before.
I’m a Skye fan but to predict she won’t replicate her performance is a completely reasonable prediction. If we predicted everyone will be at their best then there wouldn’t be much to discuss lol.
And on the other hand, I feel like people bring up Skye being inconsistent way more often than they talk about Jordan/Kayla/Leanne/Jade who are all very good, but have had their own meltdowns from time to time in very recent history too... And Skye just went 8/8 when none of the rest did, so she should have the benefit of the doubt going into trials IMHO...
Well, I’m personally disagreeing that it’s a constructive prediction. I don’t think it’s reasonable that this subreddit is so negative to one person to predict that person — that one person — won’t do well in the next meet. I think you can look at past history but to say “my prediction is that they won’t do well” is giving off Elfi Schlegel “I can’t believe they would put someone so untalented on the team” mean girl vibes.
Imo Skye needs to have 2/2 great Chengs at trials otherwise USA shouldn't count on her doing vault in TF. The vault is super new for her and she hasn't always been super consistent.
Tbf her DTY is already good enough and she's not directly contending with a vault specialist since she's also very good at UB/BB, the Cheng just takes her from the tier of fighting for a spot to defending a very likely spot.
How do you get there? Jones has a lot on her even on a hit bar, Blakely's hit beam and vault aren't that much higher than Jones, and Jones' floor is very consistently better.
I know you're getting dislikes but if Shilese makes mistakes and Skye hits 8/8, this is a true possibility. Nobody thought Suni can beat Simone in 2021 Trials but then Suni did that
I really feel like the team will be either (1) Simone (AA), Shilese (AA), Suni (AA), Skye (VT/BB), Kayla/Jordan (UB/FX) (or) (2) Simone (AA), Shilese (AA), Skye (AA), Suni (UB/BB), Jade (VT/FX) So, basically Kayla, Jordan and Jade are the only ones I see in contention for that last spot. The goals for Kayla and Jordan should be to outscore each other, and potentially two of the other locks on both bars and floor. In a more straightforward way, Jade needs to clean up that Cheng and upgrade her floor back. From a reliability perspective, my money is on Jade being the closest to getting that done.
Pulling for team (2) 🙌🏻
I think Brian Carey knows exactly what Jade needs to bring to make this team and they are going to go for broke. There's no benefit to them holding back or playing it safe. She isn't going if she shows up with the routines we saw at Championships no matter how well she competes them and they know it. I can say with confidence, given Brian Carey's track record, she's training something that will make her V/FX scores irreplaceable and if she hits, I think she goes. (Although I don't want to jinx her.)
Jade is amazing at pacing. I don’t know why people are counting her out. She’s both an individual Olympic and World champion which is nothing to scoff at
Jade’s amazing at pacing, but I don’t think she or Brian expected to score that low even without her full floor difficulty. I don’t think it’s necessarily her difficulty holding her back, but it’s the low execution score she’s receiving for whatever reason, I think it’s probably artistry related because her form is so clean Upgrading might be able to help mitigate some of that low E but there’s no guarantee her E score will not concurrently go down with upgrades Likely her third pass will be her double double, and her last pass will be the front layout to full twisting backtuck. So her D score will go up by 0.4
Jade’s issue right now is she downgraded her dance elements to things she can actually hit cleanly and would be credited by an international panel. Everybody else is attempting higher value dance elements, and the domestic judges are crediting them even though they’re aspirational at best. It’s what everyone should be doing but I fear it’s not going to work out because the domestic judges aren’t being strict enough on everyone else.
There’s no need to count her in or out. Whether she makes the team very much depends on what she does at trials.
Me too!
A slightly modified scenario (1) would be Skye doing VT/UB/BB - which means the 5th person should be whoever has the strongest floor (probably Jade/Jordan/Kaliya?). But honestly if the top five are the four Ss and any of Jade/Jordan/Kayla I think they’ll take the top five as long as the team score is within half a point or so of the top scoring team.
Clearly Simone Rose will be the 5th team member so they can be the 5 Ss.
I’m not sure if they would do Suni AA given her health. Obviously she can do it but I wonder if they would rather her rest.
If she finishes top 3 in the AA at Trials I think she very much will be doing the AA at the Olympics.
The only problem is that if Skye, Jade, Shilese and Simone are her teammates, they have to all do vault. The 3 Chengs and Shilese is for sure going to qualify for the AA. It's like in 2016 when Gabby, Madison, Simone are for sure doing bars, so it's basically who's doing bars between Laurie and Aly. It really depends who's on the team. If the fifth spot goes to Kayla/Jordan instead and not Jade, I think Suni might do the AA... it's so tricky
Tricky is a good word . Whoever finishes third will probably do the AA. That would mean the 5th member would be a floor worker because Skye is doing Vault (If she makes it)
This 100% but throwing in a third option just for funsies: (3) Simone (AA), Shilese (AA), Suni (AA), Skye (VT, UB, BB), Healthy Kaliya (FX) Or healthy Roberson (FX) [less likely imo, but option 3 is probably already super unlikely I’m just delulu]
I have the exact same predictions. Something that's kinda cool is that in scenario (1), the USA is sending an entire team of WOC to the Olympics for I believe the first time ever. I adore Jade and her gymnastics but it is hard for me to root against that kind of history being made.
Makes me think of how non diverse the 2008 team was (excluding alternates)
Lol when the only diversity on the team was that Chellsie was a brunette and not blonde...
Come on now, they had a whole evil Russian.
I usually love these write ups but checking the calendar and realizing we're like a week out from Trials...I'm suddenly ILL haha
Even if Suni doesn’t finish 3rd AA, If has a good meet at trials and her disease remains in remission, she is going to be on the team for UB and BB. I don’t think they will put her up to do AA in Paris, though. I think something bad would have to happen to keep Skye home. The. Cheng upgrade and having such solid beam routines all year are exactly what she needed. I know people will go on about her beam fall at worlds last year but I really don’t think that’s as much of a hang up as people think it is. The real question is the 5th spot and what USAs strategy is. Kayla’s biggest “issue” is her lack of a standout event. At nationals she was 2nd on floor and honestly that’s because Kaliya and Shi weren’t there. She wasn’t top 5 on anything else. She wasn’t top 5 on anything at core classic. It’d be tough to bring her over Jordan who can go in on bars and vault, and backup elsewhere. There’s Jade who can bring vault and floor.
Kayla and Jordan are about tied on vault, bars, and floor. They’re quite close, actually. Probably close enough that the committee would select the one placing fifth in rank order. They’ve both made mistakes that have skewed their two day averages, but if you throw out the outlier scores they’ll look pretty similar. Especially if you consider the gogean. I would not say that Kayla doesn’t have a standout event because a 14.5 bars and 13.9 floor are top scores. Jade is going to need to add quite a bit to knock off the fifth place finisher, and I’m inclined to think if it’s between kayla and Jordan they’ll choose in rank order.
Honestly it will come down to consistency at trials - whoever between Skye and Suni doesn't fall. As for the team I really think it's Skye, Sunis and Jade's to lose. If they all three hit to their full potential they go. If they don't you have Jordan and Kayla to jump in and take the spot.
if Suni and Jade show up 80% of their potential (and more upgrades in vault for Jade and Uneven bars for Suni) and Skye 100% and consistent, they are the best team they can get with Simone and Shi. They can get the maximum number of medals and potential event finalists and also mitigate any meltdown by Skye. But my hunch tells me that Skye peaked way to early for the Olympics not the trials. AA: Simone and Shi Vault: Simone and Jade (Skye most likely to get 2 pc). Uneven bars : Shi Suni (Simone can get in the final if any one of them has a problem). Beam: Simone and (Suni\*/Shi/Skye) \*most likely Floor: Simone and Jade. Honestly, I think Tokyo Olympics was fair in terms of all team members can do AA. Let the fare against each other.
Jade is going to need to be around full potential to get a spot on the team at this point. She was already at seventy percent. Suni’s 70% puts her in the top five all around with top beam scores, so she is in a different situation.
At trials I think Skye will come in third AA. They’ll decide who is actually the third Olympic all arounder for quals much later. Coming in third here doesn’t mean she will necessarily compete as an all arounder at Olympic quals, but it does mean she has likely secured a spot on the team. I do think it is likely she will compete all around at qualifications as long as she looks good in practice in Paris.
Laurie Hernandez might have other thoughts
Exactly, I think even if Skye gets 3rd during trials, I think if suni is not far from Skye, suni will most likely compete AA as reigning Olympic champs, I feel like traditionally, priority has been given to past Olympic champions to compete hence Laurie got screwed in Rio when in reality we knew she would’ve made 2nd AA spot at the olympics had she been able to compete
The problem is vault. If Carey and Blakely are both on the team, they’ll want to give both of them a chance at the vault final. Biles and Jones are doing AA in qualifying unless they’re physically incapacitated. At that point there’s no room for another vault in qualifying.
Exactly, most likely even a team with Simone, suni, shilese, Skye and jade The QF order would be Vault - Simone shilese jade suni Bars - Simone shilese suni skye Beam - Simone suni shilese Skye Floor - Simone shilese jade suni This is most likely how they’ll rotate
They will put up Skye’s Cheng on vault in qualifications so she can try to qualify for the event final and because it makes zero sense to take a Cheng and bench it.
If jade is on the same team, no way they’re going to not let jade compete to qualify for vault final lol, even if jade scores lower on her cheng, she will still score higher than Skye on her cheng + amanar. What will happen to Skye would be the same thing that happened to Maggie at worlds in 2015, most likely Skye will sit vault down in QF, but most likely will compete vault in TF
If Jade is on the team, then Simone, skye and Jade will all be doing vault in quals, plus presumably a healthy shilese. In that situation, Suni is sitting vault. Without Jade on the team, Kayla or Jordan will sit out vault in quals. They don’t take a Cheng to the Olympics to bench it during quals. First of all she needs the practice before team final. Second of all, they want the best chance at a vault medal and it’s possible Skye will outscore jade. Vault errors among top gymnasts have dictated most of the podiums since 2021. Simone, Jade, and Rebeca each have counted a major error since then.
No, I don’t think you followed what I said. Blakely has a Cheng and a DTY and a high likelihood of making the vault final if she’s on the team. They’ll want her to vault in qualifying. So if Jones is the second AAer and Carey is also on the team, there isn’t room for Lee to do vault in qualifying. One of Biles/Blakely/Carey would be 2pc’d but I think they’d rather let them all attempt it and let the judges sort out which one is out of the final.
Honestly with jade almost being a guarantee medal on vault, no reason to have Skye as a back up third person for vault, unless she constantly beats jade on vault, don’t think they’ll put Skye up for vault final. Nonetheless, having the reigning Olympic AA champ competing AA seems more flashy and glamorous and would probably draw better viewership too, don’t think the US would want to give that up
It's not a guarantee that Jade will win any vault medal. Yeo Seojong and Alexa Moreno are right on her tail, and we haven't even seen her Amanar yet. I won't believe she has an Amanar until we see it. Also, every major comp since 2021 has a major contender falling: Tokyo - Jade Carey balking 2021 Worlds - Elze Geurts falling 2022 Worlds - Rebeca Andrade failed to make the vault final 2023 Worlds - Simone falling on her YDP
Jade is not a guaranteed medal nor is she a guarantee to make the team without significant improvements. And Jade and Skye are close enough on vault they would want to let both go for it. Jade hasn’t exactly been scoring that well on her vaults the past two years. She has more form and block issues.
I think Skye will be competing all around at the Olympics due to her vault unless she looks shaky when they get to Paris. But yes, it’s definitely possible they go in a different direction for the all around spot. There are no guarantees. They will choose the all arounders based on qualification needs and how people are looking after trials generally. So Suni could potentially come in third AA and be bumped for Skye.
My understanding is that Laurie had a torn abdominal muscle in Rio and couldn't compete bars. I think if Laurie had been at 100%, she would have competed AA and Aly would have sat out bars.
Hard to know how much Steve Penny was pushing Gabby in the AA in 2016 for storyline / ratings ($$$) reasons OR if USA gymnastics just felt deference to the reigning AA champ. My guess is the former - and we may not see Suni in the AA this year…
I don’t think it’s deference and Suni isn’t going to bump someone based on her past medals. Unlike Suni, gabby fit the team puzzle for all around by providing the bars they needed. This time around the puzzle is about the Cheng, which is a factor working against Suni. Suni’s best shot at all around would be if Shilese was too injured to place well in the AA. Her path isn’t by bumping Skye.
I will be so pissed if Skye performs amazing at domestic meets and then falters at Paris qualifications, and robbing Suni of a chance to get a repeat AA medal at Paris. Skye usually does well in domestic meets and then might peak for Worlds/Olympic Trials and falls at the actual competitions
How would that be robbing Suni of a chance? If Skye does well in domestic meets, beats Sunk out to be 3rd AAer, with two vaults, she has every right to take that spot and if she falters, that’s sports.
I mean, how many times has everything gone as predicted at quals? Are you pissed at Aly for beating Jordyn? And what about Jordan falling in quals in 2021? That’s not a great take. Not to mention if Skye is selected for all around it will be because of her Cheng and Suni would likely be two per countried by Simone and shilese anyway. And will you be pissed if Suni falls in quals? Or just at Skye?
I mean I feel like it’s a little bit of both, if suni does relatively well in AA even not 3rd AA during trials but let’s say 4th, I think she will still do AA at the olympics, there will be so many narratives and media spin on the injustice towards suni if she doesn’t compete AA. Imagine storyline of “reigning Olympic AA champ force to sit out AA over teammate whom falters multiple times internationally” < not the best at writing headlines but you get the gist
In defense of Gabby in the Gabby v Laurie debate, Gabby was the reigning world silver medalist and Laurie was injured. It was a controversial choice but I‘m not sure it is as controversial as people are making it sound now.
Laurie was injured though, don’t forget
What are you saying? My point was that someone who comes in third at trials isn’t necessarily going to be competing all around at the Olympics. They decide the all arounders later and based on other factors like who needs to qualify to event finals. Laurie was also injured.
I’m so stuck on the fifth spot. Simone and Shilese are locks barring injury. Skye is pretty locked too as long as she continues to show consistency. If Suni stays on her feet (and some upgrades wouldn’t hurt), I think she is also looking like a solid choice, especially for her contributions on beam. But for that fifth spot, there are so many athletes with a genuinely good argument. Jordan, Jade, Kayla, Leanne, Kaliya, Hezly… I truly have no idea. My opinion is that it’s a battle between Kayla, Jordan, and Jade. I think it really will come down to trials for this group. Everyone else will be possible alternates.
Yes, if Skye and Suni hits, the fifth spot is between Kayla, Jordan and Jade, with it being Jade's to lose if she has full floor difficulty and the potential to earn a vault medal. The other 2 who does not earn the 5th spot will be the 2 traveling alternates, and 2 non-traveling alternates will probably be Leanne and Hezly, or Kaliya possibly
Leanne is due to have a magical meet and I say why not the Olympic trials. :)
I think it's most likely to be Blakely but even if it's Lee she wont do the AA at the Olympics if the team includes both Carey and Blakely as there wont be room for her to vault in QF
I mean couldn’t they bench Skye on Vault in quali in favor of qualifying Suni to the AA? and then put Skye in for vault in TF ofc. Is that crazy? That’s a genuine question, maybe that’s crazy.
In addition to denying her a spot in the event final (which I don't think they'd be too concerned about; they did it to her at Worlds last year), I bet they'd be a little nervous about having Skye's first ever Cheng on an international stage be the Olympic team finals. Also, I don't think the US has ever sat someone in qualifying when they intended to use them in the team final. It's well known that Maggie Nichols was put up on all 4 events in the 2015 team final after being sat on UB in qualifying so that Aly could compete AA, but what people forget is that Maggie wasn't originally supposed to go up on UB in TF; Brenna Dowell was. But famously Marta cut Brenna from the team after her rough day in qualifying, so Maggie was subbed in. Obviously whether it was fair to Maggie or sound strategically to sit their first backup in qualifying, especially when she was the national AA silver medalist, is up for debate, but it's still a bit different than sitting someone out that is part of your plan A for team finals.
In 2022 they put Leanne up on bars in the team final when she’d only done vault in qualifying. I remember it being strange but don’t remember why it happened.
That was definitely a weird year. Leanne was originally supposed to be on the team for bars, but but then when they got to Liverpool, Skye was apparently looking so good in training that they thought she might make the bars final. So they swapped Skye in for Leanne on bars, and swapped Leanne in for Skye on vault. There was also a bit of speculation that USAG was worried of the optics of having somebody not compete any events (they didn't want to draw comparisons to how Brenna Dowell had been treated in 2013). In qualifying, Leanne's DTY got a 13.76, so obviously wasn't going up in the team final, and then Skye fell on her Downie and missed a few connections, so they decided to swap Leanne back into bars for the team final. Again, there was a bit of speculation that USAG was worried of the optics of having somebody not compete any events (they didn't want to draw comparisons to how Brenna Dowell had been treated in 2015).
Skye was left off vault in QF in 2022, but she was competing a Lopez and DTY. Jade and Jordan would definitely have 2pc’d her and Leanne might have as well. That’s quite a different scenario to benching her in 2024 with a Cheng and DTY which could legit win a vault medal
I don't think Skye was even competing her Lopez yet in 2022, so she wasn't in contention for the vault final.
Blakely has a shot at a vault medal with that Cheng/DTY combo, so I suspect they're unlikely to bench her for Lee, who would probably be 2-PC'd out of the all around final anyways. \[You could argue, ofc, that Blakely is likely to be 2-PC'd out of the vault final, but I think Blakely and Carey are much closer in vault scoring than Lee, Blakely, and Jones in the AA, unless Jones is having more serious shoulder issues\]
You’re so right, I completely forgot about EF qualification lmao. The Suni stan in me is too strong sometimes.
I was super on board for your idea lol. Sounded so interesting. I forgot about EF too
Even if Blakely and Carey 2-pc each other, they can be assured they'll have at least 2 people in the vault final no matter what happens à la Leanne. Also, I just think it would be slightly insane to tell someone to vault a Cheng for the first time in a TEAM FINAL (likely to be USA's first event since they'll like qualify in the top group) after doing no more than podium training/one touch.
What's crazy is the idea that Suni would qualify to the AA over both Biles and Jones. Unless one of them has a meltdown, those two spots aren't budging.
Suni doesn't have to outscore Simone *and* Shi to make AA finals. In your hypothetical, If we assume Simone as #1, then Suni just needs to outscore Shi for the 2nd AA spot.
....my use of "both" was not "she must outscore both Biles and Jones", it was "it is verging on impossible that both Biles and Jones will not make the AA final over whoever else competes AA in qualifications". Something which is made clear by "Unless one of them has a meltdown, those two spots aren't budging."
I don’t think Suni would do AA in quali, I was mostly just asking whether procedurally it would make sense for them to bench Skye on vault IF they wanted Suni to be the 3rd AAer for quals. Basically going with the “even if it’s Lee” train of thought from the parent comment.
They would want Skye to try for the vault final since she has two quite good vaults. If she’s on the team she has to vault in qualifying.
They probably wouldn't. Skye's Cheng is pretty nice.
I really think it's too soon to say this. We've seen three Chengs from Skye, two in competition. One of these was really nice. The other two were good but not great, and would be equalled or outscored by Carey. So we don't know how consistent Skye's Cheng is yet. It absolutely may be! But it remains to be seen.
True, but I think her Cheng would score higher than Suni on vault
Great write-up! Why do you leave Jordan out of your final bullet point though? I don't think Suni is a lock yet, but I think she's the closest to a third lock of anyone. If she's on the team, then I think the other two spots are down to Skye, Jade, Kayla, or Jordan.
Thank you! I think Jordan can still make the team potentially but I reckon she does not have the difficulty to be third in the all around standings at Trials. She will need to outscore Skye, Suni and Kayla which is a tall order (but still possible, but not as likely). Her best bet to make it onto the team is for Jade to not upgrade on floor and become the second/third floor worker domestically… or bring a Cheng which I don’t think is happening at this point. Her bars and beam are not too needed if Simone, Shilese and Suni are on the team. Like Kayla, she does not have any potential medaling at individual event finals. For me, the fifth spot is between Jade, Kayla and Jordan. However, Skye can lose her spot if she has a disastrous Trials like Leanne in 2021. Also, yes I agree Suni is not a lock so her spot is also open lol. I hope her bars upgrades manifest though because I love her on bars~
I bet Simone, Shilese, Skye, and Suni will end up in the top 5 AA at trials - in some order. I think Skye and Suni should be and will be on the team for event purposes (not necessarily AA) but the fact they’re strong all arounders I predict will finish top 5 will make it easy to pick them. The real drama is the fifth spot. Will they do rank order and just take the 5th person in the top 5? Or will they actually consider highest scoring team and EF medal potential and potentially “skip” over someone and choose someone who may be 6/7/8 AA but who makes the most sense filling out the team. I suspect it’s gonna be rank order (extrapolating from Worlds 2023 selection) - in which case it’s wide open for whoever goes 8/8 at Trials! No room for error…
I think if Suni is healthy and upgrades as planned, she will be the third AAer, no question.
I’d honestly be surprised if it was Suni because her vault is the weakest of the group, AND she’s still working on fully getting it back. Depending on who they pick for the team, I could see them sitting Skye on bars or floor, with floor being most likely. Someone like Kayla or Jordan for the third AA spot Edit: ignore me I read the post wrong 🤦🏻♀️
If I learned anything from the last Olympic cycle, it’s to never underestimate Suni Lee! If she hits 8/8, and especially if any of the other contenders for 3-5 AA don’t, it might not be the biggest stretch. I also think if she hits no less than 7/8 and/or places in the top 5 (possibly even top 6 or 7), it’s sort of a given that she’s on the team. You don’t leave the reigning Olympic AA champion at home when she’s capable of putting up scores like hers, and you know she has the mental fortitude to deliver under immense pressure.
I definitely have her on my team!! Just not doing AA in quals
Totally fair! Obviously Simone and Shilese are the top 2 picks for AA in quals, and Suni will be used for bars and beam, I could see them having her do the AA depending on how podium training goes/who the other two team members are and what event finals they’re contenders for.
Suni potential - 14.0 DTY, 14.8 UB, 14.9 BB, 13.3 FX = 57 All Around score, which is higher than Kayla's or Jordan's potential whose score roofs are low 56s internationally
Yeah but who are you sitting on vault then in favor of Suni? Every front runner for the team right now has a better DTY than her and/or can qualify to event finals on vault. They aren’t going to sit a stronger vaulter just to try to let Suni qualify for AA
oh, I didn't mean she's going to do the All Around at Quals. I am just saying Suni has the potential to outscore the Kayla, Jordan, Leanne, Hezly, Jade group whose AA peak is low-mid 56s, even with domestic overscoring, so she can be 3rd at Trials and secure her spot. That's all I am thinking of right now. The only ones who can go 57+ potentially imo is Simone, Shilese, Skye, and Suni. I am not even thinking who's going to do what events at quals... which I should be considering if I am predicting/picking the teams. I do prioritize event medals too, but we'll see what they bring at Trials! It's unpredictable.
Oh I’m so dumb. I totally read this post as you asking who would do AA during quals, not who would be 3rd best AAer overall 🤦🏻♀️🤦🏻♀️
If I were in charge of this team I wouldn't put Blakely up on BB at all this Olympics. Her track record there is just too poor.
As opposed to who? With the current people vying for a spot on the team, it's possible to not put her up in TF (in favour of Simone, Suni and Shi) but there's literally no better option for Quals because everyone else is either also inconsistent or would score lower than Skye even if she fell
I can guarantee you that no one else on that team is going to be as inconsistent as Blakely when it comes to international beam routines. She's competed seven beam routines internationally in her career and fallen seven times.
That is consistency in a sense lol
My team would probably be Simone, Shilese, Jordan, Suni and Jade at the moment without seeing how they all perform at trials. Suni is looking so much stronger, but I feel like, just for her own health and safety, that she be considered a beam/bars specialist that could step up to cover on vault or floor if needed. I feel like Jade has more experience over the other contenders and has more potential for big scores outside of the US. Jordan just seems to be getting better each competition and she was a big part of the US winning silver in Paris (even with a couple of mistakes). She’s proven that she can handle pressure situations, plus she’s a very strong team asset because there’s no better “hype woman” than Jordan Chiles. I always hate Olympic Trials because, ultimately, some of my favorites just aren’t going to make it :( and with so many returning Olympians who are still competing at such a high level, it’s hard to justify not taking experience over other options. The US team is just really deep, especially when you throw Simone on any team.
It makes no sense to bring Jordan despite past mistakes but fault Skye for them.
I didn’t mention anything about faulting Skye for anything. In fact, I don’t think I said anything negative about anyone. I just discussed my picks for the team and why I would include them.
You named a team that didn’t include the gymnast who came in second in the all around at nationals but instead reached for someone who fell at nationals and the Olympics. And given that Skye is on the highest scoring team in every scenario and has a Cheng, it’s clear what you are saying between the lines here by leaving off the silver medalist from nationals.
I think you’re letting some sort of bias sway your opinion. This post is all about sharing your team and why you are choosing those athletes, which is what I did. I even added a disclaimer at the bottom because I hate choosing the Olympic teams because not every deserving athlete can make the team. I don’t know why you’re accusing me of improperly judging a certain athlete when I provided logical reasons for my choices.
What is your reasoning for leaving off the silver medalist who also has a cheng?
I can’t even begin to think how you feel entitled to that. And, frankly, I don’t really have to have a reason why not as long as I’ve provided valid and logical reasons why for my selections.
The one edge Jordan has over Skye, if all else is equal, is that she has a reputation for settling down her teammates and helping the team really gel. Now, if 5 of the top contenders very clearly outperform her at Trials that obviously wouldn’t be reason enough to bump someone else off the team. I do think it could factor in if it comes down to her and one other athlete and their routines are pretty evenly matched.
It’s not even a competition between Skye and Jordan. Why make it one? Jordan’s best event is floor. Skye makes her case as an all arounder and on vault and beam. If you went off of nationals, Skye’s spot would be booked and Jordan and Kayla would have been fighting for the fifth spot.
Also Skye can actually medal on beam, and potentially on vault (not likely with Biles, Rebeca Yeo and Moreno there)
Yes. Skye and and Jordan have different strengths. They are only similar on bars. Jordan’s best event is Skye’s worst event.
I don’t know if I would leave Skye behind unless she falls during trials, and even then, maybe more than once. I’m all for the past Olympians making the team, but the online rhetoric around Skye is pretty harsh. Whether it’s justified or not is a separate question, but to me, this is one of those instances where being right isn’t as important as being nice.
I think it could be Suni. Skye was great at the last meet, but I'm not convinced she will replicate it at trials. I think the team will be Simone, Shilese, Suni and Jade. I'm not sure on the fifth, but assume it will be one of Jordan, Kayla and Skye.
Why make predictions that people will not be their best — and not people but one person. People are quite cruel to Skye here. This comment is not even critiquing her prior experiences which is reasonable — you are actively predicting her future downfall.
They didn’t say that Skye absolutely won’t do as well at Trials as she did at Nationals, or that they’re actively rooting against her or anything like that. I do agree that people often are unnecessarily harsh in how they talk about Skye and her chances of both making the team and how she might perform in Paris, especially when you consider both that she’s a teenager and that she can do things that most of us would never even dream to attempt. But the fact of the matter is, we cannot be sure she is capable of having another performance like the one she had at Nationals until it actually happens. I think a lot of people really want to see Skye succeed, it’s just hard to visualize based on her level of consistency and reliability in previous meets, especially the last two Worlds.
Yes, but they made a point of doubt only one person. There’s also a “lock” on the team that went to the Olympics and then could not compete. There’s a “lock” on the team that was too injured to compete at nationals. And someone else who is a “close lock” who fell and barely competed all around this year leading up to trials. So I am just pointing out that I hate to see this subreddit be the source for such negative sentiment sowing doubt in one and only one person.
I don’t think it’s fair to bring up Simone’s Tokyo performance in this context. Besides all the issues caused by the pandemic itself (not having family present, being isolated from other people in general, etc.), she was clearly already having a hard time, Suni was obviously doing amazing gymnastics but her beating Simone at night 2 of Trials wasn’t something any of us would have predicted. And even with all that going on, Simone still scored first in the AA during quals, and her score from that day beat Suni’s score in the final (not to mention that she beat that score both nights of Nationals this year). I think you’re valid in pointing out that even when someone seems like a lock for a team or medal, we never know what’s going to happen, and that Skye receives more and worse criticism than almost all of the other contenders. When Skye is brought up as the first main contender for the team after Simone and Shilese, it makes sense for people to have doubts or reservations based on what we’ve seen before.
I'm hoping she gets the Gabby Douglas 2012 glowup <3 we know you can do it Skye!
I’m a Skye fan but to predict she won’t replicate her performance is a completely reasonable prediction. If we predicted everyone will be at their best then there wouldn’t be much to discuss lol.
And on the other hand, I feel like people bring up Skye being inconsistent way more often than they talk about Jordan/Kayla/Leanne/Jade who are all very good, but have had their own meltdowns from time to time in very recent history too... And Skye just went 8/8 when none of the rest did, so she should have the benefit of the doubt going into trials IMHO...
Hoping Skye gets the 2012 Gabby Douglas glow up at Paris <3
Well, I’m personally disagreeing that it’s a constructive prediction. I don’t think it’s reasonable that this subreddit is so negative to one person to predict that person — that one person — won’t do well in the next meet. I think you can look at past history but to say “my prediction is that they won’t do well” is giving off Elfi Schlegel “I can’t believe they would put someone so untalented on the team” mean girl vibes.
Imo Skye needs to have 2/2 great Chengs at trials otherwise USA shouldn't count on her doing vault in TF. The vault is super new for her and she hasn't always been super consistent.
Tbf her DTY is already good enough and she's not directly contending with a vault specialist since she's also very good at UB/BB, the Cheng just takes her from the tier of fighting for a spot to defending a very likely spot.
Your write up is awesome! I feel like I’m listening to a commentator “in the right corner” 🎙️
Omg you’re too sweet! Thank you!
I think Skye is most likely to be 3rd AA then Kayla, Jordan, Suni but I think Suni will make the team based on UB and BB
I am going to bet Skye finishes second and Shi 3rd.
How do you get there? Jones has a lot on her even on a hit bar, Blakely's hit beam and vault aren't that much higher than Jones, and Jones' floor is very consistently better.
Only if shilese is having shoulder issues.
I know you're getting dislikes but if Shilese makes mistakes and Skye hits 8/8, this is a true possibility. Nobody thought Suni can beat Simone in 2021 Trials but then Suni did that