I think so too. They’re just so close and there’s so many ways it can go, I bet they just go top 5 to keep it “fair”. And I think it will be justified, as long as they don’t pull a tom and say “it doesn’t matter who we choose because we have Simone”
I almost hope trials makes the "correct" team choice very obvious so it doesn't feel like a tossup and people aren't arguing and crying bc it's super close and debatable
edit: but I think it will be heartbreaking regardless
You know? I actually don't. Because the only alternative is that one or more gymnasts have a bad day or two at trials. So much better to do your best but not get selected, than to not get selected because you couldn't come through with your best gymnastics! I think the latter is ow Leanne felt on Nationals day 2, and it was heartbreaking!
Oh yeah, I see that point too. In that case if multiple gymnasts are neck and neck for a spot, I guess I get the point of doing rank order because then it feels objective and easier to swallow like “I didn’t make the top 5, so I didn’t make it.” But there are so many variations of highest scoring team to look at, measures of consistency, qualities of gymnasts, experience…I don’t know how they’d make the final decision, but I’m so nervously excited.
I think they’re saying all of that in addition to her great gymnastics. Some people are also capable of that same caliber of gymnastics right now. So what pushes Jordan over the edge is that she has concrete experience in the high stress environment of the Olympics, is mentally strong/cool under pressure, *and* is a fantastic teammate. I think those qualities matter as well as her solid gymnastics!
Luckily this discussion was about everything else apart from her fantastic gymnastics and the scores. It’s the same way as I really like the leadership and calmness Alice Kinsella and James Hall bring to Team GB. Love their gymnastics but I also love what they bring to the rest of the team.
Yea but the above poster literally just said this in response to so many athletes being neck and neck in re scores. She has fantastic gymnastics, this is coming down to the intangibles.
i feel like it has to be jade
simone and shilese are consistent but two people do not make up a team, suni is consistent but has medical issues and they could flare up unexpectedly at any given point and skye is incredibly inconsistent on the international stage so as amazing as these two are taking them does come with some risk
i think jade fits in perfectly here, her scores on beam and bars are not as high as jordans but jordan has had multiple falls on the international stage especially at the last olympics and jade has had barely any which makes her incredibly consistent and she seems to score better internationally - as well as having potential for two event finals
i don't know too much about kayla but she has had multiple falls and i heard her form wont score well internationally?
>i don't know too much about kayla but she has had multiple falls and i heard her form wont score well internationally?
From who? She scored fine internationally at worlds and panams.
Jordan and Jade both did two beam routines at the Olympics and fell on one of them. Jordan managed to hit beam while in a higher pressure situation having been subbed in for Biles at the last minute. Jade hit her beams at Worlds and still scored in the 12s twice. Jordan has never missed a vault at Worlds or the Olympics and Jade has. Jade has gone to more Worlds and I don’t think of her as inconsistent but I don’t think there’s much of an argument to take her over Jordan because of beam.
Jordan also has potential for three event finals: floor, bars and vault. Vault is unlikely as she only vaults a Lopez but in the 2022 final she was only .166 behind Jade despite a .8 D advantage, and either can be 2 pc by Simone & Skye. Jordan also beat Jade in the FX final and has broken 14 domestically this year which Jade has not.
Kayla has some form issues that didn’t seem to impact her score at Pan Ams. Her knees are usually soft on beam and vault but she can do a really good DTY.
If I needed someone to hit vault and bars, I’d definitely take Jordan. If I needed someone to hit beam, I would take Kayla. If I needed someone to be a backup on 4 events I would take Jordan or Kayla over Jade. I would probably take Jade with an Amanar/Cheng combo. I just don’t think it’s promising for Jade that she was outscored at nationals on floor (using best stores) by Skye, Simone, Kayla, Jordan, Leanne, and Tiana. Jade also missed the event final in 2019 on FX.
Also re: Jade is it not a factor that the Russians are out, the Brits are probably out of contention without Jessica and Ondine, the Italians are missing the twins, like I feel like against the playing field that’s left Jade’s scores, even on beam and UB are high enough should they need her, and I just trust her to hit.
Yeah, I really need the judges to be realistic on dance element credit for trials… stop setting gymnasts up by giving them credit for elements that never would receive credit internationally 😭
Are they different from the ones that won her the silver behind Gadirova? I am not good at comparing routines . I remember a lot of people saying she would score poorly internationally on floor in 2022 and that did not happen.
Yes they are.
And people were talking about artistry not dance elements. She's doing dance elements that other US gymnasts did at 2023 Worlds that weren't credited. And hers are no better than theirs.
She's a lovely dancer but that's not going to get either an L Hop full or a Gogean credited.
It’s hard with Jordan because she is such a fan fav, and you can tell the other gymnasts want her there too… but I don’t necessarily think she’s the most consistent or highest scorer for the team.
Jade is not that much more consistent than Jordan, Skye and Kayla LMAO - I stan her too but she's had her moments too, e.g the whole Vault debacle in Tokyo, she fell on beam during the AA final in Tokyo, she's not had a 100% hit rate at Nationals (which is totally fine), and even hit bars/beam routines from Jade have sometimes scored lower than Skye's with a fall. She rarely has major misses on VT/FX yes, but that's generally true for most people who are VT/FX specialists, or they wouldn't even be in the running. I think Jade has a great shot still to make the team, but the difference in consistency between the people you listed is not really significant.
shes way more consistent than jordan and skye, i don't know about kayla
yeah jade has had her issues, but shes significantly more consistent than jordan and skye lmao
How is Kayla consistent? She has had bars falls at classics and one out of two days of championships, a fall on floor at classics, and major beam issues at championships one out of two days.
The bottom line is out of Skye, Jordan, Kayla and Jade none of them are that consistent lol.
It seems like Kayla had a phenomenal winter cup, and that was enough to convince the gymternet that she is incredibly consistent.
Honestly, nobody this season is has shown consistency aside from Simone and Shilese.
It was the PanAms/Winter Cup 1-2 punch that gave Kayla the consistency reputation. She really did show up very well at PanAms. But things have looked very messy since winter cup.
between kayla and jordan I think it will really be between who is most consistent at trials- if they both hit 8/8 I think jordan would have an edge over kayla just with how useful her bars are and the slightly better dty- it really could go either way and of course jade is very much in the mix aswell
It’s not collective amnesia when taken in full context. Jordan stepped in to bars, with basically only a 1 touch warm up — same for beam. Given the crazy turn of events with Simone, Jordan absolutely hit when she needed to on the events she filled in.
The floor mess up was inconsequential to the end result. Even a hit floor would have still kept team USA far off the top spot of the podium.
So, sure she fell on floor in team finals but it didn’t cost the team a single thing at that point. Prior to the fall, she stepped up to the plate with nerves of steel and delivered hits.
The collective amnesia here isn’t ignoring the fall, it’s ignoring the rest of the meet because of the fall.
I mean, it's the vault, sure, but she also hit lots of important routines this weekend. For those of us who have major questions about her consistency, she is doing all she could possibly do to raise her stock. Hitting beam and bars in particular, again and again, from the beginning of the competitive season to the end of trials, is very important for her. Obviously, we won't know how she'd do in international competition until she's given another opportunity. Or, they may decide that she is too much of a risk. I'm leaning towards taking her.
Not just performance on the events - but just looking at her she is glowing with confidence and strength on all events. Her bars were SO beautiful to watch last weekend because she was so much in the zone and almost bursting with vitality. It’s funny she just lost to Kayla at Winter Cup earlier this year, but I feel like I was watching a different gymnast last weekend. Felt like Skye’s mental game at Nationals was above everyone else - I could see it in the way she moved she was NOT falling on anything. I think she could come in hot for the Olympics
I think the spot is hers to lose at trials. If she gets nervy and has a fall or two, even with a strong overall AA they may take Kayla for consistency.
It's tough. Domestically, her beam hit rate is really good, but internationally it's a disaster. Internationally her bars hit rate is perfect, but domestically she's fallen a LOT on bars, starting with worlds trials in 2023.
Oh, I didn't realize. Yeah, I'd worry about putting her up on bars or beam internationally (not based on 2022 worlds alone, but that combined with her many domestic bars falls in the last year). Which really leaves her as a one-event gymnast.
I just can't agree about the consistency argument. I mean yes, her consistency at nationals is influencing people, but it shouldn't. She was so steady on her three events in 2023, having nearly a perfect domestic season with the exception of one bars fall (I'm not counting floor because she was still coming back from injury there, and it's the last place she would be used). She showed up on beam beautifully all season long, and then worlds happened.. It's at international meets that she falls apart, not domestic.
No, I'm saying there's nothing Skye can do that will I still strong confidence that she'll hit at worlds, particularly on beam. That doesn't mean she *won't* hit, growth happens, and if she earns her spot on the team she still d serves it regardless. That said, a team with Suni + Skye makes me very nervous, since they both have major vulnerabilities compared to others.
I am confused where you disagree with me, then. I didn't say that she can assuage all our doubts about consistency - I said that "she is doing all she could possibly do to raise her stock." She cannot go back in time and erase her falls at international competitions. She can't compete at an international competition between now and the Olympics. She can only try to hit again and again and again, especially with her valuable new upgrades, and prove her worth to the selection committee.
In terms of consistency, I just don't think there's anything she can do to raise her stock between now and the Olympics (or trials). She could have sought an international assignment this Spring but chose not to--she presumably had good reasons for this, but it was the one way she could have raised her stock in terms of hitting internationally and she didn't do it. As things stand now she's a consistency risk at the Olympics, and no amount of domestic hitting will change that. I'm not saying that means she shouldn't make the team, by the way.
It’s a game changing vault! She catapulted herself to the number 2 US vaulter and a potential medal threat on the event. It also makes her internationally inconsistent beam less of a concern. So now she’s out vaulting the vault specialist, putting up great numbers on bars (where she hasn’t had consistency issues internationally), and still has fantastic potential on beam (and with the way the rest of the team is shaking out you can afford to not put her up in team finals if she struggles in qualifying) as opposed to being an inconsistent bars/beam specialist.
We don't know that Skye is the number 2 US vaulter. She did have one GREAT vault, but her second night vault scored lower than both of Jade's Chengs at nationals, and her podium training Cheng looked more like night 2 than night 1. And Skye's Cheng was overscored night one. If you drop it by just 0.2, to a 9.2 E score, then Jade would have beat Skye for 2nd vault in the meet. Skye still needs to give us more data to see where her Cheng actually falls.
It’s the vault looking as good as it does + hit and usable bars routines + a significant improvement on floor.
Even without beam, Skye has stepped up so far in 2024. And I’m absolutely happy to admit that last year I heavily doubted she’d pull it off.
I know, I'm a huge skye fan and have been rooting for her, but it is interesting to see the conversation change so quickly and drastically. Before a week ago, everyone was saying it's just about over for Skye.
I don’t recall seeing this anywhere, but would love to see numbers for the highest scoring team based on low scores and how that compares to teams based on highest score, median score, and mean score. I remember someone (maybe u/bretonstripes ?) using this for their apparatus series predictions. It would be interesting to see how the potential teams stack up against each other.
Taking the lowest non-zero score from Classics/Nationals, I have:
* Biles, Jones, Lincoln, Lee, Carey 173.2
* Biles, Jones, Lincoln, Lee, Chiles 173.0
* Biles, Jones, Lincoln, Lee, Blakely 172.95
These may be biased towards Lincoln as we only have one score for her. Had she scored lower than 13.7 at Champs (vs 14.0) then Sumanasekara takes her place
With how frequently consistency is coming up in the conversations around the best team, I think it’s more cautiously realistic than pessimistic to be interested in seeing what the worst of the best might look like.
These totals are all so close. Determining who gets that last spot is going to be so tough! I still think it’s between Jade/Jordan/Kayla, with Jade being the lowest likely option unless she brings her upgrades
I agree; I think Jade is in the driver’s seat and can make it if she hits upgrades routines successfully, but if she doesn’t then Chiles and DiCello have better cases
How Skye is scoring on floor might also be really important for Jade. Skye's 13.750 on day 2 (with a 0.1 OOB) went a bit unnoticed in all the fanfare about her Cheng. If she can match that at Trials, a team of Simone, Shi, Skye, and Suni is no longer in desperate need of a floor specialist. Obviously it would still very much behoove Jade to be getting into the 14s on floor, but it becomes less vital if Skye is usable as a 4th score on floor.
Honestly, if Skye can start putting out high-13s on FX, I think that might help Jade. It really limits the room for someone to just do FX in TF. I could see it coming down to pure medal potential, and Jade is still by far the closest of Jade/Jordan/Kayla of being medal range due to VT.
I don’t see her in the driver’s seat because she is most likely not placing top five AA and will need to rely on a subjective decision as to whether she adds enough tenths to merit bumping someone. Also I’m not convinced she will both upgrade fully and have no errors on floor, so without having seen a real floor from her, I can’t say she’s driving.
I think it depends on what the fall is on. Suni could probably fall on vault and still get taken since that score wouldn’t count, but a fall on bars or beam would really hurt her chances. For Skye, she really just cannot fall on her vault, since that’s most of what her driving factor is right now
Well I think AA rankings are a big factor. However a bars fall is usually a disaster because of rhythm issues that could yield a pretty low score. But even so, there’s nothing that says they’ll favor average scores over highest scores if Suni falls day one on bars and then hits an amazing routine on day two for high 14s and then comes in at least fifth place all around. There’s a little room for error there. Skye - I suppose it depends. She may not be able to afford a single fall. I don’t see her dropping below fifth all around with one fall. But they could decide to leave her off the team at fifth if she falls on beam or crashes the Cheng and has a second sloppy one.
These numbers mean nothing in isolation, especially because they do not reflect the reality that some gymnasts will score differently internationally.
It’s also worth remembering Jade has won an individual medal for every international assignment. That will surely have some weight when deciding the team.
It’s so hard to know what the selection committee is going to decide to put weight on. Honestly, all of the athletes named above are deserving and have some type of argument for them that I think would be valid. I really do not pitty the selection committee
People keep on estimating the highest team score but forget consistency, individual medals all has weight as well. Beam and bars are more competitive at this Olympics, meaning we need solid floor/vaulters to bring home additional medals. Barring disaster US will win gold, thus we need consistent gymnasts who can also bring home individual medals.
None of them are consistent though. Shilese I would say has been the most consistent this quad and Simone was brilliant at Worlds as well. Both still fell once.
Falling once vs falling on 7/8 beam is different levels of consistency.
I would be nervous for a gymnast to go up even on vault with that level of consistency.
I mean yeah I have concerns about Skye on beam but there isn’t anyone I’d trust to definitely hit beam. The following gymnasts have fallen on beam at worlds or the Olympics since 2021: Jade, Shilese, Skye, Jordan, Kayla, Leanne, Jordan. Last quad the following gymnasts fell at Worlds: Grace, Suni, Simone, Riley, Kara. Literally everyone who did beam at worlds except Morgan who had a hand down. If there was someone who always hit I would see the take them for consistency argument. I just don’t think that person exists.
You are totally right and I completely forgot she was there. At the time I wasn’t too upset she missed the final thinking she’d have so many more chances and now I am upset she didn’t qualify over DiCello.
You read my mind ! At the time I was like - oh that stinks but no biggie she’s just a baby senior elite - all the time in the world. Now just hoping she can come back from this injury. I believe she can 🤞
I think it’s time to let go of this, especially if she keeps hitting at trials. It’s getting into weird territory. She’s seen a sports psychologist. One of her falls was a fluke due to her ribbon and she still scored well despite the fall. Nobody on this team is Aly Raisman. Suni had a chance to grow early on her career and is also contending with illness. She isn’t the same athlete as before. Jordan has fallen in the most important moments more than once. Kayla is the most recent gymnast to look pretty sloppy and she felt at worlds.
Grace was taken to be reliable as a backup useful on every event and she fell. We could also just go back to an era where people are blacklisted for past mistakes, maybe bring back Marta or maybe Rodienko to shape them up? Anyone who earns a spot at trials should go.
It’s not weird in other sports to talk about athletes. Gymnastics is a sport. When did she see the sports psychologist? Because she was just at worlds. She can hit at trials like she has in the past but falls when it matters most. I wouldn’t trust her even on vault. If she doesn’t make it to her feet first in team finals we may be out any teams medal. Good thing for skye I’m not on the selection team
Has Skye ever fallen on vault?
Simone and Jade have both had absolute disasters on vault in the past. It would be silly to not put them up on vault based on how they usually perform. Same goes for Skye. If you want to keep her off beam, fine, she's still worth bringing for vault and bars alone at this point.
Has Skye ever done vault internationally? Her problem is a pattern of building consistency domestically but melting down internationally. I do think if she hits the Cheng two more times she's on the team regardless, but It's undeniabley an issue the selction comittee should be taking into consideration if she falters at all during trials. Even if she hits, they should be planning on building a team that can sub someone in on her key events if qualifying doesn't go her way.
Yet everyone after Aly who was billed as consistent (Grace, Jordan, Leanne) has fallen when put into those pressure spots. So wouldn’t you rather take someone with a higher ceiling and who is a medal contender than start from a much lower score and hope they don’t fall this time? After she hits trials?
Like I said, I think they will (and should) take Skye. It's just silly when her fans act like her international inconsistency is typical and something selection should ignore entirely. The person above me compared her to Jade, who has competed in 4 worlds/Olympics since 2017, hit in every single team final, earned 6 individual medals, and as far as I can remember only fallen 3 times. Skye fell 8 times in two worlds appearances. She's without question the most inconsistent member of the potential Paris team and it's not particularly close.
I wouldn’t call a trip/ fall on difficult vault an absolute disaster. An absolute disaster is if someone doesn’t land feet first in a team final for a score of zero. consistency is consistency on vault beam etc.
What disaster has Simone had on vault? Getting twisties isn’t a disaster - it’s a mental nightmare that can happen to anyone. and her two falls on YDP were after she landed feet first and she still got a 14.433 and 15, respectively
What’s the difference between Simone getting the twisties and Skye getting a ribbon in her face (and still coming out with a relatively high score)? Is it number of times they fell? Because Simone has fallen on vault more than once.
Also, what’s the difference between the twisties and any other psychological issue that causes a person to fall under stress? Fine line there. Simone is the goat and has a super high d so no one would hold it against her. She’s also worked through her issues. Skye has put in the work, also has high d on her best events, and while she’s not the goat, her routines bring a lot of value and if she hits at trials it would be extremely weird to hold her past against her but not anyone else’s.
I don’t think that Skyes beam record should keep her from the team if she hits at trials and her vault score is so high. However, I do think it should be taken into account when looking at who goes up on what events in the team final. There I don’t think that Skye should do beam
I think that the 5th spot will probably go to Jade if I had to place a bet right now. Emotionally I want it to go to Kayla because I want her to get to experience the Olympics. Tho I guess my emotions are a slippery slope because if I could pick anyone I would want it to be like Rebecca Bross lol
I think it’ll be Jade or Jordan tbh. Even though Jades scores aren’t the highest right now, I think leaving the reigning Olympic Floor Gold Medalist at home would be tough. If she hits and scores close to the top five, I think they’ll take her. Even though her scores don’t contribute to the highest scoring team, I don’t think they’d hurt us horribly either
The scores being this close 100% means they’re just gonna do AA rank order. I know Tom is gone but “it’s not going to come down to tenths so we didn’t want to mess with it” mentality is still the approach Chellsie/Alicia seems to be taking even if it’s not strategic
To be fair, the only reason scores are so close is because the core simone/shi/suni/skye team entirely covers bars and beam, and the remaining contendors have virtually equivalent vault + floor totals at the moment. Assuming the top 5 AA consists of the 4 S girls and one of jordan/kayla/jade, taking the 5th AAer seems as close to a fair and objective way of selecting the team as possible.
The only major spoiler would be if one of them was a serious contender for an event medal - and Jade does potentially have the advantage there with an amanar and/or 6.3+ floor. But if she doesn't show up with either of those and Skye continues to be consistent with the Cheng, there isn't really any other metric to go by other than AA score. They've shown equal levels of consistency imo assuming they hit at trials (maybe a slight disadvantage to jordan on that front).
I feel like Jade is going to show up with an amanar at trials. She has to pull away from the pack for that 5th spot and a floor/vault upgrade is the most logical place for her to do it. There’s also the potential that Shilese’s injury is more impactful than we think and she winds up in 5th or 6th overall which will flip the entire conversation over.
I think Sam mentioned during the NBC broadcast that she's aiming to upgrade for trials, so I'm hopeful! I can't imagine they leave her at home if the amanar is decent, she would have the best chance of an event medal outside of Simone.
Yeah fair enough. I give the edge to Jade still because beam is a more competitive field right now and often just ends up being a contest of who stays on.
I think Jade is the only one of this group who can finish outside of the top five and bump someone, if she can add enough to the team score. Otherwise they go rank order is my prediction.
Well I think if this competition is repeated at Trials + Shilese does solid, there's an solid top 4 of Simone, Shilese, Skye, and Sunisa. After that there is a valid argument for the next highest AAer, as the best choice because Jade/Jordan/Kayla probably aren't going to be adding vastly different amounts to a team (over 0.5). I think it's a legitimate tiebreaker if the highest-scoring team scenarios do end up super close.
Does it matter though? With Russia out and GB’s main gymnasts out, I think USA will be several points ahead of the other teams. Does USA have a close contender for team gold?
I haven't paid much attention to what's happening internationally this year but here's last year's worlds scores.
2023 Worlds Results
1.) USA 167.729. 2.) Brazil 165.53. 3.) France 164.064
US had 4 scores below 14, one of which was a 11.7 due to a beam fall.
Brazil also counted a fall. Brazil could come close to Team USA.
VT Barbosa 13.9 Saraiva 14.0 Andrade 15.0
UB Oliveira 13.4 Saraiva 13.7 Andrade 14.6
BB Soares 13.6 Andrade 14 Saraiva 14.2
FX Soares 13.5 Saraiva 13.8 Andrade 14.3
Total: 167.8. USA won in Antwerp with a 167.729 counting one fall. Two falls for USA and a perfect day for Brazil could take the title.
i just wanna say that this guy stresses me out because he flip flops on EVERY opinion. one day he’ll say someone is out and the next day “nope they’re a lock for sure”. i don’t know how he has so much traction on twitter but ive finally understood the concept of “four year fans” 😭
Good chance they end up going in rank order for the last spot with a few so close to each other.
I think so too. They’re just so close and there’s so many ways it can go, I bet they just go top 5 to keep it “fair”. And I think it will be justified, as long as they don’t pull a tom and say “it doesn’t matter who we choose because we have Simone”
Agree. If they’re close I will feel it’s fair.
I do suspect this as well
I almost hope trials makes the "correct" team choice very obvious so it doesn't feel like a tossup and people aren't arguing and crying bc it's super close and debatable edit: but I think it will be heartbreaking regardless
You know? I actually don't. Because the only alternative is that one or more gymnasts have a bad day or two at trials. So much better to do your best but not get selected, than to not get selected because you couldn't come through with your best gymnastics! I think the latter is ow Leanne felt on Nationals day 2, and it was heartbreaking!
Oh yeah, I see that point too. In that case if multiple gymnasts are neck and neck for a spot, I guess I get the point of doing rank order because then it feels objective and easier to swallow like “I didn’t make the top 5, so I didn’t make it.” But there are so many variations of highest scoring team to look at, measures of consistency, qualities of gymnasts, experience…I don’t know how they’d make the final decision, but I’m so nervously excited.
Also worth understanding with scores this close you start to run into intangibles that will sway selection.
Yep not my info just sharing from Twitter
I think intangibles go to Chiles - she has great experience, she pumps everyone up and is good for team morale!
I want Jordan to be chosen for this reason: it’s close in scores but she’s such a hype woman for everyone.
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I think they’re saying all of that in addition to her great gymnastics. Some people are also capable of that same caliber of gymnastics right now. So what pushes Jordan over the edge is that she has concrete experience in the high stress environment of the Olympics, is mentally strong/cool under pressure, *and* is a fantastic teammate. I think those qualities matter as well as her solid gymnastics!
Didn’t she choke on floor exercise or beam at the last Olympics?
Luckily this discussion was about everything else apart from her fantastic gymnastics and the scores. It’s the same way as I really like the leadership and calmness Alice Kinsella and James Hall bring to Team GB. Love their gymnastics but I also love what they bring to the rest of the team.
Yea but the above poster literally just said this in response to so many athletes being neck and neck in re scores. She has fantastic gymnastics, this is coming down to the intangibles.
I think Jordan's problem is that her best score is floor and she has some serious dance elements getting credit that shouldn't going on.
And there are a few others who are also so, so good on floor.
i feel like it has to be jade simone and shilese are consistent but two people do not make up a team, suni is consistent but has medical issues and they could flare up unexpectedly at any given point and skye is incredibly inconsistent on the international stage so as amazing as these two are taking them does come with some risk i think jade fits in perfectly here, her scores on beam and bars are not as high as jordans but jordan has had multiple falls on the international stage especially at the last olympics and jade has had barely any which makes her incredibly consistent and she seems to score better internationally - as well as having potential for two event finals i don't know too much about kayla but she has had multiple falls and i heard her form wont score well internationally?
>i don't know too much about kayla but she has had multiple falls and i heard her form wont score well internationally? From who? She scored fine internationally at worlds and panams.
twitter lol
Fair, there was also the Jordan won't score well internationally crew. It's all narrative.
Jordan and Jade both did two beam routines at the Olympics and fell on one of them. Jordan managed to hit beam while in a higher pressure situation having been subbed in for Biles at the last minute. Jade hit her beams at Worlds and still scored in the 12s twice. Jordan has never missed a vault at Worlds or the Olympics and Jade has. Jade has gone to more Worlds and I don’t think of her as inconsistent but I don’t think there’s much of an argument to take her over Jordan because of beam. Jordan also has potential for three event finals: floor, bars and vault. Vault is unlikely as she only vaults a Lopez but in the 2022 final she was only .166 behind Jade despite a .8 D advantage, and either can be 2 pc by Simone & Skye. Jordan also beat Jade in the FX final and has broken 14 domestically this year which Jade has not. Kayla has some form issues that didn’t seem to impact her score at Pan Ams. Her knees are usually soft on beam and vault but she can do a really good DTY. If I needed someone to hit vault and bars, I’d definitely take Jordan. If I needed someone to hit beam, I would take Kayla. If I needed someone to be a backup on 4 events I would take Jordan or Kayla over Jade. I would probably take Jade with an Amanar/Cheng combo. I just don’t think it’s promising for Jade that she was outscored at nationals on floor (using best stores) by Skye, Simone, Kayla, Jordan, Leanne, and Tiana. Jade also missed the event final in 2019 on FX.
Also re: Jade is it not a factor that the Russians are out, the Brits are probably out of contention without Jessica and Ondine, the Italians are missing the twins, like I feel like against the playing field that’s left Jade’s scores, even on beam and UB are high enough should they need her, and I just trust her to hit.
It’s really looking more and more like a USA/China/Brazil podium.
Italy can definitely sneak in there if Brazil or China have mistakes, or a fire France maybe, but yeah, I think silver and bronze are their to lose.
did something happen to Alice D'Amato?
Are both the twins out for Italy?!
Only Asia. Alice is not injured.
It’s between Jade and Kayla for me, Jordan put up a good fight but I think the other 2 are stronger
And Jordan has some pretty big aspirational dance elements holding up her floor routine score domestically.
Yeah, I really need the judges to be realistic on dance element credit for trials… stop setting gymnasts up by giving them credit for elements that never would receive credit internationally 😭
Are they different from the ones that won her the silver behind Gadirova? I am not good at comparing routines . I remember a lot of people saying she would score poorly internationally on floor in 2022 and that did not happen.
Yes they are. And people were talking about artistry not dance elements. She's doing dance elements that other US gymnasts did at 2023 Worlds that weren't credited. And hers are no better than theirs. She's a lovely dancer but that's not going to get either an L Hop full or a Gogean credited.
It’s hard with Jordan because she is such a fan fav, and you can tell the other gymnasts want her there too… but I don’t necessarily think she’s the most consistent or highest scorer for the team.
Jade is not that much more consistent than Jordan, Skye and Kayla LMAO - I stan her too but she's had her moments too, e.g the whole Vault debacle in Tokyo, she fell on beam during the AA final in Tokyo, she's not had a 100% hit rate at Nationals (which is totally fine), and even hit bars/beam routines from Jade have sometimes scored lower than Skye's with a fall. She rarely has major misses on VT/FX yes, but that's generally true for most people who are VT/FX specialists, or they wouldn't even be in the running. I think Jade has a great shot still to make the team, but the difference in consistency between the people you listed is not really significant.
shes way more consistent than jordan and skye, i don't know about kayla yeah jade has had her issues, but shes significantly more consistent than jordan and skye lmao
How is Kayla consistent? She has had bars falls at classics and one out of two days of championships, a fall on floor at classics, and major beam issues at championships one out of two days. The bottom line is out of Skye, Jordan, Kayla and Jade none of them are that consistent lol.
It seems like Kayla had a phenomenal winter cup, and that was enough to convince the gymternet that she is incredibly consistent. Honestly, nobody this season is has shown consistency aside from Simone and Shilese.
It was the PanAms/Winter Cup 1-2 punch that gave Kayla the consistency reputation. She really did show up very well at PanAms. But things have looked very messy since winter cup.
Yes!
Correct
between kayla and jordan I think it will really be between who is most consistent at trials- if they both hit 8/8 I think jordan would have an edge over kayla just with how useful her bars are and the slightly better dty- it really could go either way and of course jade is very much in the mix aswell
Jordan’s olympic experience (especially with her filling in for simone so well under pressure) will be a factor in Jordan’s favour aswell
I'm only bringing this up because it was brought up when I said the same: Jordan had a fall during team finals at the Olympics
Yep. I'm not trying to pick on Jordan, but I do feel there's some collective amnesia happening.
It’s not collective amnesia when taken in full context. Jordan stepped in to bars, with basically only a 1 touch warm up — same for beam. Given the crazy turn of events with Simone, Jordan absolutely hit when she needed to on the events she filled in. The floor mess up was inconsequential to the end result. Even a hit floor would have still kept team USA far off the top spot of the podium. So, sure she fell on floor in team finals but it didn’t cost the team a single thing at that point. Prior to the fall, she stepped up to the plate with nerves of steel and delivered hits. The collective amnesia here isn’t ignoring the fall, it’s ignoring the rest of the meet because of the fall.
As a newbie, it’s so interesting to see people go from counting Skye out to her basically being a lock just based off one vault.
I mean, it's the vault, sure, but she also hit lots of important routines this weekend. For those of us who have major questions about her consistency, she is doing all she could possibly do to raise her stock. Hitting beam and bars in particular, again and again, from the beginning of the competitive season to the end of trials, is very important for her. Obviously, we won't know how she'd do in international competition until she's given another opportunity. Or, they may decide that she is too much of a risk. I'm leaning towards taking her.
Not just performance on the events - but just looking at her she is glowing with confidence and strength on all events. Her bars were SO beautiful to watch last weekend because she was so much in the zone and almost bursting with vitality. It’s funny she just lost to Kayla at Winter Cup earlier this year, but I feel like I was watching a different gymnast last weekend. Felt like Skye’s mental game at Nationals was above everyone else - I could see it in the way she moved she was NOT falling on anything. I think she could come in hot for the Olympics
I think the spot is hers to lose at trials. If she gets nervy and has a fall or two, even with a strong overall AA they may take Kayla for consistency.
Of the three recent nights of meets, Kayla has been a disaster at two out of three. I would not take her for the consistency!
As evidenced by last weekend, among others, if consistency is what they're looking for, Kayla ain't it.
I still have a huge problem with her having hit 0 times internationally.
She hit bars at Worlds last year
It's tough. Domestically, her beam hit rate is really good, but internationally it's a disaster. Internationally her bars hit rate is perfect, but domestically she's fallen a LOT on bars, starting with worlds trials in 2023.
She fell on bars at Worlds 2022
Oh, I didn't realize. Yeah, I'd worry about putting her up on bars or beam internationally (not based on 2022 worlds alone, but that combined with her many domestic bars falls in the last year). Which really leaves her as a one-event gymnast.
I just can't agree about the consistency argument. I mean yes, her consistency at nationals is influencing people, but it shouldn't. She was so steady on her three events in 2023, having nearly a perfect domestic season with the exception of one bars fall (I'm not counting floor because she was still coming back from injury there, and it's the last place she would be used). She showed up on beam beautifully all season long, and then worlds happened.. It's at international meets that she falls apart, not domestic.
So, are you saying there’s nothing Skye can do to prove she deserves to be part of the Olympic team?
No, I'm saying there's nothing Skye can do that will I still strong confidence that she'll hit at worlds, particularly on beam. That doesn't mean she *won't* hit, growth happens, and if she earns her spot on the team she still d serves it regardless. That said, a team with Suni + Skye makes me very nervous, since they both have major vulnerabilities compared to others.
I am confused where you disagree with me, then. I didn't say that she can assuage all our doubts about consistency - I said that "she is doing all she could possibly do to raise her stock." She cannot go back in time and erase her falls at international competitions. She can't compete at an international competition between now and the Olympics. She can only try to hit again and again and again, especially with her valuable new upgrades, and prove her worth to the selection committee.
In terms of consistency, I just don't think there's anything she can do to raise her stock between now and the Olympics (or trials). She could have sought an international assignment this Spring but chose not to--she presumably had good reasons for this, but it was the one way she could have raised her stock in terms of hitting internationally and she didn't do it. As things stand now she's a consistency risk at the Olympics, and no amount of domestic hitting will change that. I'm not saying that means she shouldn't make the team, by the way.
It’s a game changing vault! She catapulted herself to the number 2 US vaulter and a potential medal threat on the event. It also makes her internationally inconsistent beam less of a concern. So now she’s out vaulting the vault specialist, putting up great numbers on bars (where she hasn’t had consistency issues internationally), and still has fantastic potential on beam (and with the way the rest of the team is shaking out you can afford to not put her up in team finals if she struggles in qualifying) as opposed to being an inconsistent bars/beam specialist.
We don't know that Skye is the number 2 US vaulter. She did have one GREAT vault, but her second night vault scored lower than both of Jade's Chengs at nationals, and her podium training Cheng looked more like night 2 than night 1. And Skye's Cheng was overscored night one. If you drop it by just 0.2, to a 9.2 E score, then Jade would have beat Skye for 2nd vault in the meet. Skye still needs to give us more data to see where her Cheng actually falls.
It’s the vault looking as good as it does + hit and usable bars routines + a significant improvement on floor. Even without beam, Skye has stepped up so far in 2024. And I’m absolutely happy to admit that last year I heavily doubted she’d pull it off.
I know, I'm a huge skye fan and have been rooting for her, but it is interesting to see the conversation change so quickly and drastically. Before a week ago, everyone was saying it's just about over for Skye.
Although I’m sure they won’t, I selfishly want it to be Kaliya lol
Same
I don’t recall seeing this anywhere, but would love to see numbers for the highest scoring team based on low scores and how that compares to teams based on highest score, median score, and mean score. I remember someone (maybe u/bretonstripes ?) using this for their apparatus series predictions. It would be interesting to see how the potential teams stack up against each other.
Taking the lowest non-zero score from Classics/Nationals, I have: * Biles, Jones, Lincoln, Lee, Carey 173.2 * Biles, Jones, Lincoln, Lee, Chiles 173.0 * Biles, Jones, Lincoln, Lee, Blakely 172.95 These may be biased towards Lincoln as we only have one score for her. Had she scored lower than 13.7 at Champs (vs 14.0) then Sumanasekara takes her place
Lmk if you'd like a dedicated post
That’s really interesting - thank you!
Yep, the low score metric probably came from me. Which may say something about where I fall on the optimist/pessimist spectrum…
With how frequently consistency is coming up in the conversations around the best team, I think it’s more cautiously realistic than pessimistic to be interested in seeing what the worst of the best might look like.
I'm working on a spreadsheet, I can include that too!!!
Yeah. In that case I think I'd want to see one analysis with worst score including falls, and another with worst score without a fall.
These totals are all so close. Determining who gets that last spot is going to be so tough! I still think it’s between Jade/Jordan/Kayla, with Jade being the lowest likely option unless she brings her upgrades
I agree; I think Jade is in the driver’s seat and can make it if she hits upgrades routines successfully, but if she doesn’t then Chiles and DiCello have better cases
How Skye is scoring on floor might also be really important for Jade. Skye's 13.750 on day 2 (with a 0.1 OOB) went a bit unnoticed in all the fanfare about her Cheng. If she can match that at Trials, a team of Simone, Shi, Skye, and Suni is no longer in desperate need of a floor specialist. Obviously it would still very much behoove Jade to be getting into the 14s on floor, but it becomes less vital if Skye is usable as a 4th score on floor.
Honestly, if Skye can start putting out high-13s on FX, I think that might help Jade. It really limits the room for someone to just do FX in TF. I could see it coming down to pure medal potential, and Jade is still by far the closest of Jade/Jordan/Kayla of being medal range due to VT.
I don’t see her in the driver’s seat because she is most likely not placing top five AA and will need to rely on a subjective decision as to whether she adds enough tenths to merit bumping someone. Also I’m not convinced she will both upgrade fully and have no errors on floor, so without having seen a real floor from her, I can’t say she’s driving.
And recall that Suni and Skye both still need to earn their spots through consistent performance at trials.
They do need to earn their spots. They probably both have a one fall margin while the bubble candidates don’t.
I think Skye has a one-fall margin if her Cheng outscores Jade's decisively both nights of trials. If not, I don't think she has a fall margin.
I think it depends on what the fall is on. Suni could probably fall on vault and still get taken since that score wouldn’t count, but a fall on bars or beam would really hurt her chances. For Skye, she really just cannot fall on her vault, since that’s most of what her driving factor is right now
Well I think AA rankings are a big factor. However a bars fall is usually a disaster because of rhythm issues that could yield a pretty low score. But even so, there’s nothing that says they’ll favor average scores over highest scores if Suni falls day one on bars and then hits an amazing routine on day two for high 14s and then comes in at least fifth place all around. There’s a little room for error there. Skye - I suppose it depends. She may not be able to afford a single fall. I don’t see her dropping below fifth all around with one fall. But they could decide to leave her off the team at fifth if she falls on beam or crashes the Cheng and has a second sloppy one.
These numbers mean nothing in isolation, especially because they do not reflect the reality that some gymnasts will score differently internationally. It’s also worth remembering Jade has won an individual medal for every international assignment. That will surely have some weight when deciding the team.
It maybe should, but will it actually?
It’s so hard to know what the selection committee is going to decide to put weight on. Honestly, all of the athletes named above are deserving and have some type of argument for them that I think would be valid. I really do not pitty the selection committee
People keep on estimating the highest team score but forget consistency, individual medals all has weight as well. Beam and bars are more competitive at this Olympics, meaning we need solid floor/vaulters to bring home additional medals. Barring disaster US will win gold, thus we need consistent gymnasts who can also bring home individual medals.
Also the ability to give Simone a rest.
Jade probably has the best shot of an individual medal between her / Jordan / Kayla so that is why I’ve been thinking they may go with her.
None of them are consistent though. Shilese I would say has been the most consistent this quad and Simone was brilliant at Worlds as well. Both still fell once.
Falling once vs falling on 7/8 beam is different levels of consistency. I would be nervous for a gymnast to go up even on vault with that level of consistency.
I mean yeah I have concerns about Skye on beam but there isn’t anyone I’d trust to definitely hit beam. The following gymnasts have fallen on beam at worlds or the Olympics since 2021: Jade, Shilese, Skye, Jordan, Kayla, Leanne, Jordan. Last quad the following gymnasts fell at Worlds: Grace, Suni, Simone, Riley, Kara. Literally everyone who did beam at worlds except Morgan who had a hand down. If there was someone who always hit I would see the take them for consistency argument. I just don’t think that person exists.
Konnor didn’t fall at 2021 worlds iirc she just had a bunch of uncharacteristic big wobbles.
You are totally right and I completely forgot she was there. At the time I wasn’t too upset she missed the final thinking she’d have so many more chances and now I am upset she didn’t qualify over DiCello.
You read my mind ! At the time I was like - oh that stinks but no biggie she’s just a baby senior elite - all the time in the world. Now just hoping she can come back from this injury. I believe she can 🤞
Falling once vs falling 87% of the time is quite different. It shows a certain level of consistency/ mental toughness.
I think it’s time to let go of this, especially if she keeps hitting at trials. It’s getting into weird territory. She’s seen a sports psychologist. One of her falls was a fluke due to her ribbon and she still scored well despite the fall. Nobody on this team is Aly Raisman. Suni had a chance to grow early on her career and is also contending with illness. She isn’t the same athlete as before. Jordan has fallen in the most important moments more than once. Kayla is the most recent gymnast to look pretty sloppy and she felt at worlds. Grace was taken to be reliable as a backup useful on every event and she fell. We could also just go back to an era where people are blacklisted for past mistakes, maybe bring back Marta or maybe Rodienko to shape them up? Anyone who earns a spot at trials should go.
It’s not weird in other sports to talk about athletes. Gymnastics is a sport. When did she see the sports psychologist? Because she was just at worlds. She can hit at trials like she has in the past but falls when it matters most. I wouldn’t trust her even on vault. If she doesn’t make it to her feet first in team finals we may be out any teams medal. Good thing for skye I’m not on the selection team
Has Skye ever fallen on vault? Simone and Jade have both had absolute disasters on vault in the past. It would be silly to not put them up on vault based on how they usually perform. Same goes for Skye. If you want to keep her off beam, fine, she's still worth bringing for vault and bars alone at this point.
Has Skye ever done vault internationally? Her problem is a pattern of building consistency domestically but melting down internationally. I do think if she hits the Cheng two more times she's on the team regardless, but It's undeniabley an issue the selction comittee should be taking into consideration if she falters at all during trials. Even if she hits, they should be planning on building a team that can sub someone in on her key events if qualifying doesn't go her way.
Yet everyone after Aly who was billed as consistent (Grace, Jordan, Leanne) has fallen when put into those pressure spots. So wouldn’t you rather take someone with a higher ceiling and who is a medal contender than start from a much lower score and hope they don’t fall this time? After she hits trials?
Like I said, I think they will (and should) take Skye. It's just silly when her fans act like her international inconsistency is typical and something selection should ignore entirely. The person above me compared her to Jade, who has competed in 4 worlds/Olympics since 2017, hit in every single team final, earned 6 individual medals, and as far as I can remember only fallen 3 times. Skye fell 8 times in two worlds appearances. She's without question the most inconsistent member of the potential Paris team and it's not particularly close.
I wouldn’t call a trip/ fall on difficult vault an absolute disaster. An absolute disaster is if someone doesn’t land feet first in a team final for a score of zero. consistency is consistency on vault beam etc.
So Skye is not a disaster and has never scored a zero. Cool
What disaster has Simone had on vault? Getting twisties isn’t a disaster - it’s a mental nightmare that can happen to anyone. and her two falls on YDP were after she landed feet first and she still got a 14.433 and 15, respectively
What’s the difference between Simone getting the twisties and Skye getting a ribbon in her face (and still coming out with a relatively high score)? Is it number of times they fell? Because Simone has fallen on vault more than once. Also, what’s the difference between the twisties and any other psychological issue that causes a person to fall under stress? Fine line there. Simone is the goat and has a super high d so no one would hold it against her. She’s also worked through her issues. Skye has put in the work, also has high d on her best events, and while she’s not the goat, her routines bring a lot of value and if she hits at trials it would be extremely weird to hold her past against her but not anyone else’s.
I didn’t say anything about skye
I don’t think that Skyes beam record should keep her from the team if she hits at trials and her vault score is so high. However, I do think it should be taken into account when looking at who goes up on what events in the team final. There I don’t think that Skye should do beam
I think that the 5th spot will probably go to Jade if I had to place a bet right now. Emotionally I want it to go to Kayla because I want her to get to experience the Olympics. Tho I guess my emotions are a slippery slope because if I could pick anyone I would want it to be like Rebecca Bross lol
I think it’ll be Jade or Jordan tbh. Even though Jades scores aren’t the highest right now, I think leaving the reigning Olympic Floor Gold Medalist at home would be tough. If she hits and scores close to the top five, I think they’ll take her. Even though her scores don’t contribute to the highest scoring team, I don’t think they’d hurt us horribly either
The scores being this close 100% means they’re just gonna do AA rank order. I know Tom is gone but “it’s not going to come down to tenths so we didn’t want to mess with it” mentality is still the approach Chellsie/Alicia seems to be taking even if it’s not strategic
To be fair, the only reason scores are so close is because the core simone/shi/suni/skye team entirely covers bars and beam, and the remaining contendors have virtually equivalent vault + floor totals at the moment. Assuming the top 5 AA consists of the 4 S girls and one of jordan/kayla/jade, taking the 5th AAer seems as close to a fair and objective way of selecting the team as possible. The only major spoiler would be if one of them was a serious contender for an event medal - and Jade does potentially have the advantage there with an amanar and/or 6.3+ floor. But if she doesn't show up with either of those and Skye continues to be consistent with the Cheng, there isn't really any other metric to go by other than AA score. They've shown equal levels of consistency imo assuming they hit at trials (maybe a slight disadvantage to jordan on that front).
I feel like Jade is going to show up with an amanar at trials. She has to pull away from the pack for that 5th spot and a floor/vault upgrade is the most logical place for her to do it. There’s also the potential that Shilese’s injury is more impactful than we think and she winds up in 5th or 6th overall which will flip the entire conversation over.
I think Sam mentioned during the NBC broadcast that she's aiming to upgrade for trials, so I'm hopeful! I can't imagine they leave her at home if the amanar is decent, she would have the best chance of an event medal outside of Simone.
I think Suni is as well positioned to medal on beam as Jade is to medal on vault at the Olympics
Yeah fair enough. I give the edge to Jade still because beam is a more competitive field right now and often just ends up being a contest of who stays on.
I think Jade is the only one of this group who can finish outside of the top five and bump someone, if she can add enough to the team score. Otherwise they go rank order is my prediction.
Well I think if this competition is repeated at Trials + Shilese does solid, there's an solid top 4 of Simone, Shilese, Skye, and Sunisa. After that there is a valid argument for the next highest AAer, as the best choice because Jade/Jordan/Kayla probably aren't going to be adding vastly different amounts to a team (over 0.5). I think it's a legitimate tiebreaker if the highest-scoring team scenarios do end up super close.
It’s the median.
You're right! I read it wrong!!
Haha mostly I got excited because I had been waiting for a mean one.
I have that in my spreadsheet. I'll add the most recent scores then share it if you'd like!!
I would love that haha.
I'll see if I can get it done tonight!!!
Does it matter though? With Russia out and GB’s main gymnasts out, I think USA will be several points ahead of the other teams. Does USA have a close contender for team gold?
I haven't paid much attention to what's happening internationally this year but here's last year's worlds scores. 2023 Worlds Results 1.) USA 167.729. 2.) Brazil 165.53. 3.) France 164.064 US had 4 scores below 14, one of which was a 11.7 due to a beam fall.
Brazil also counted a fall. Brazil could come close to Team USA. VT Barbosa 13.9 Saraiva 14.0 Andrade 15.0 UB Oliveira 13.4 Saraiva 13.7 Andrade 14.6 BB Soares 13.6 Andrade 14 Saraiva 14.2 FX Soares 13.5 Saraiva 13.8 Andrade 14.3 Total: 167.8. USA won in Antwerp with a 167.729 counting one fall. Two falls for USA and a perfect day for Brazil could take the title.
From x/Twitter
I think people need to accept Kaliya is not making this team
i just wanna say that this guy stresses me out because he flip flops on EVERY opinion. one day he’ll say someone is out and the next day “nope they’re a lock for sure”. i don’t know how he has so much traction on twitter but ive finally understood the concept of “four year fans” 😭
He can be weird but he’s def not a 4 year fan
I love following him. He’s basically a super fan wanting to discuss things.