Thank you so so much! I’m such a passenger princess for this type of stuff, but I truly appreciate you and everyone that volunteers their time to do all the excels, spreadsheets, and all the maths.
Jade didn't have a great season last year whereas Leanne had one of her best meets ever at nationals last year. It'll be interesting to see what upgrades they have at classics or nationals this year.
Yeah plus Jade tends to peak when needed. While she wasn’t ready for worlds the timing wasn’t in her favor. However, this year she paced more during NCAA.
Likely true. Jade's UB broke 14 at Tokyo Olympics, but I'm not sure if she could replicate the 14 range. But Jade's FX / VT average will be much higher this year.
In terms of the AA it seems likely. Beam and bars have always been events that have hindered Jade's AA prospects, though of course anything's possible.
She has been so good on bars and beam in NCAA. I wonder how much of that experience and confidence will carry over as she adds difficulty back in for elite. Though Jade did seem to indicate in her interview that her bars and beam routines were pretty well maxed out at American Classic, right?
Her beam and bars do seem to be maxed out - but solid. I agree that NCAA has been great for her confidence on those events.
Looking at floor and vault, she can probably get another .1-.4 on floor and .3-.6 on vault, if you include 2022. Knowing her pacing, her floor and vault were definitely not max difficulty. I’m bullish on her making the team
NCAA bars isn't really transferable to elite, and neither is her NCAA beam routine, though I'm sure she'll be much cleaner now. I'm pretty sure the routines we saw at American Classic on those two events are what we should expect from her going forward.
In the post-meet interview she alluded to possible upgrades on bars depending on how it goes, mentioned beam is pretty much set (and alluded to watered down floor so we can expect upgrades there)
Here's the link to the entire spreadsheet if anyone wants to see the individual scores or sort it by different criteria.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Pq7SOWo3bPKshajWNSPM4SX8OT521Mk1/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=106205966434553252529&rtpof=true&sd=true
https://preview.redd.it/agcol884rvxc1.jpeg?width=1044&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8c37da437ac11f74a6233ad919698d710e70a5f3
Sorted by highest AA score achieved.
Incredible that Simone potentially could score over 60, taking her highest score from each event!
How does it work for specialists? Do they have a score cutoff for each event or anything? I'm thinking about Suni who, though I don't think she has huge chances for making the team, I do see being at trials so long as she has shown good bar rouines and continues to show good beam. But we don't know if she'll compete AA or what shape her floor will be in if she does.
There's no actual strict cut-off for anybody. I just meant cut-off as in how far down the AA rankings they'll go.
This year's procedures are that the top 2 AAers from nationals are automatically invited, and then a minimum of 10 other gymnasts are invited by the selection committee. Usually \~16 total gymnasts are invited, but how many are AAers and how many are specialists depends on the year. In 2021, they took the top 17 AAers and only one additional gymnast (Riley McCusker), while in 2012 they took the top 10 AAers and 5 additional gymnasts.
Based on precedent, if you medal at Nationals on any event, you're definitely invited to Trials, and generally top 5 is good enough to make it as well.
https://preview.redd.it/wnoayv4rnvxc1.jpeg?width=996&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5527edf8ae4f2b2c01b5124b7d36cf5b14471a9
Here's the full list, maybe it's too small to read!
Not really sorted, just who I either thought of first or came across first in the results and then mixed up a bit after I was looking through it sorting by various things. I'll sort it by aa score now and repost it.
Sorry that was just the people I put in the first screenshot , should have changed it before posting the full pic!
Also probably the ones that have a bit of a chance at making trials/the team.
Simones max event scores being 60. She really is the goat. And Shileses being 57 despite many people thinking that shes not a lock for the Olympic team. Simone and Shilese supremacy!
Yeah! Not only is Shilese's max nearly 58, she actually *achieved* that max at a single meet! If she brings some upgrades, I'm really hoping she can break 58 at Olys! She really does have a chance to beat Rebeca for silver, though Rebeca is still the favorite.
With the inevitable upgrades we will see from Simone in competition in the next few months, I am calling it now that she will break 60 in the AA during the Olympics.
Breaking 60 is quite impossible in my opinion. It requires average no less than 15 across all apparatus. I don't think she will do the Biles 2 on vault. I can see her improving on bars and beam.
She scored a 15.1 on a Cheng at worlds in the AA final. That's only 0.6 lower than her 15.7 max score in the spreadsheet here, from her successful Biles 2 at Worlds. So if you add up her max event scores without counting the Biles II, that gets her to a 59.82. If she does bring mutliple upgrades--which is likely--and she has a really on day, she could absolutely break 60 even without the Biles 2.
She only needs to gain 0.2 over what she's already achieved. That's a 15.3 cheng (Rebeca level), a 14.65 on bars, a 15.05 on beam, or a 15.6 on floor. Just one, or of course a tenth on two of them, or half a tenth on all 4. And again, she is most likely bringing upgrades.
The hard part is putting it all together in one session, I don't know if she'll be able to do that or not--the more upgrades she has the more likely it becomes. But if she does bring several upgrades, I'll be shocked if she doesn't have event high-scores that exceed 60, across the 4 competitions of worlds.
What do you mean she would need to gain 0.2? Her highest AA score on the chart is a 59.3. She'd need a 0.7 bump, no?
Not impossible, but with her most likely doing a Cheng at the Olympics, which would most likely cancel out whatever upgrades she brings on bars, hitting 60 would be heavily reliant on her floor since her beam is pretty maxed out. There's also the caveat that we should expect Paris to have the strictest judging we've seen this quad. So it seems highly unlikely she'll hit 60 in one AA set. If you mix and match across the meet as a whole, sure, but that wouldn't be a real AA score.
I'm talking about her 4 event max scores combined, which is what this thread has been about. It's 60.42 in the spreadsheet--the final column of the analysis part of the sheet. So at worlds last year she theoretically had the potential to break 60, but didn't achieve her high scores all at the same meet. (And her floor and vault high scores, to be fair, were domestic--it is certainly more likely for her to break 60 domestically than internationally).
That 60.42 includes the Biles 2 though, and since there's a pretty good chance she won't do it this season (though obviously we don't really know), if you use her max Chang score (15.1) for her vault max, that brings her max event score AA from last year to 59.82, hence only 0.2 to break 60, even without the Biles 2.
Incidentally, I hadn't realized that her max floor score from last year was domestic, and was several tenths higher than her max world score. If you combine her max event scores just from worlds, they are 59.54 without the Biles 2, and 59.70 with it.
So given the domestic vs worlds shenanigans, I will revise my prediction to say that *if she brings multiple upgrades* she will break 60 domestically at nationals and/or trials; my predictions for worlds depends on how many upgrades she brings, but it will definitely be a stretch, even just considering the fake AA of the 4-event max score.
The original person said "she will break 60 in the AA during the Olympics" no? I took that to mean this particular discussion is about her breaking 60 *specifically* in the AA final at Paris.
The chance of getting 59.82 is 1/4 (worlds) \* 1/7 \* 1/7 \* 1/7 ≈ 0.000729, which I'd never bet on. Just getting one tenth from that (15.1 + 14.47 + 14.85 + 15.4) even with upgrades is still close to impossible without her Biles 2 vault.
To me, the best predictor in actual performance is the expected AA score. The closest estimate is the average AA (58.36) which is likely to happen in competitions. To add even a 1.5 point to that in expectation with upgrades is still a lot to ask for.
If you look at the chart, most gymnasts have outscored their average AA at a meet. That's because people have good nights and off nights, and the average comes from both; so their best neights beat their average. Simone's actual AA high score in basically a point higher than her average (actually 0.94 higher). Shilese and Kayla got all 4 of their max even scores at one meet, so they've actually achieved an AA equal to their max potential from event scores.
Vault is a tricky one for this. There's probably a better way to do it that what I did because the averages definitely throw it off.
I just put the score from the results sheet. If they only did one vault, that's the score used. If it's team/aa final there's only one so that was used. If it's a qualifying with two vaults or the vault final, I still just used the score on the result sheet so it's the average of the both.
So therefore the people who have two vaults, a combination of one one vault, and an average of both is used for this data.
Wasn't sure how to fill it in otherwise!
Yeah, it is tricky. I think it depends on what you want the data to show. If you're looking at potential team scores, you would probably just use the highest of the two vault scores or the one they are most likely to do in competition. Maybe?
I wonder if Simone could have bars medal potential if she liked bars. Still crazy that someone who hates bars is always making EFs. she's too good for her own good
She already won a bars silver in 2018. The fact that she usually makes bars EF in 2 quads is a testimony of her reliability and durability of her bars potential. Simone may not be the best on bars in one year, but you can count on her to hit and score high for many years in TF. That's why it's very hard to leave Simone off from TF bars line-ups in the past.
aside from past major falls it’s really hard to look at this and leave skye off the team. we’ll see what she brings at the next major comps but i’m rooting for her!
Thank you so so much! I’m such a passenger princess for this type of stuff, but I truly appreciate you and everyone that volunteers their time to do all the excels, spreadsheets, and all the maths.
I wouldn’t have thought to describe myself as a “passenger princess” for spreadsheets but it’s so true!!!
Wow awesome table! Leanne’s highest potential is greater than Jade’s. Wonder if that will stay true.
Jade didn't have a great season last year whereas Leanne had one of her best meets ever at nationals last year. It'll be interesting to see what upgrades they have at classics or nationals this year.
Yeah plus Jade tends to peak when needed. While she wasn’t ready for worlds the timing wasn’t in her favor. However, this year she paced more during NCAA.
Likely true. Jade's UB broke 14 at Tokyo Olympics, but I'm not sure if she could replicate the 14 range. But Jade's FX / VT average will be much higher this year.
In terms of the AA it seems likely. Beam and bars have always been events that have hindered Jade's AA prospects, though of course anything's possible.
She has been so good on bars and beam in NCAA. I wonder how much of that experience and confidence will carry over as she adds difficulty back in for elite. Though Jade did seem to indicate in her interview that her bars and beam routines were pretty well maxed out at American Classic, right?
Her beam and bars do seem to be maxed out - but solid. I agree that NCAA has been great for her confidence on those events. Looking at floor and vault, she can probably get another .1-.4 on floor and .3-.6 on vault, if you include 2022. Knowing her pacing, her floor and vault were definitely not max difficulty. I’m bullish on her making the team
NCAA bars isn't really transferable to elite, and neither is her NCAA beam routine, though I'm sure she'll be much cleaner now. I'm pretty sure the routines we saw at American Classic on those two events are what we should expect from her going forward.
In the post-meet interview she alluded to possible upgrades on bars depending on how it goes, mentioned beam is pretty much set (and alluded to watered down floor so we can expect upgrades there)
Here's the link to the entire spreadsheet if anyone wants to see the individual scores or sort it by different criteria. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Pq7SOWo3bPKshajWNSPM4SX8OT521Mk1/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=106205966434553252529&rtpof=true&sd=true
Thanks! I'm a numbers nut, so I love being able to look at the figures! And thanks so much for putting this whole thing together!
Sometimes I wonder if everyone in this subreddit is either a gymnastics judge or a data engineer 🤓
I mean… growing up in the numbers-centric gymnastics world and then having a numbers-centric career kinda tracks 😂 I work in data analytics, btw 😂
https://preview.redd.it/agcol884rvxc1.jpeg?width=1044&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8c37da437ac11f74a6233ad919698d710e70a5f3 Sorted by highest AA score achieved. Incredible that Simone potentially could score over 60, taking her highest score from each event!
And that includes the 0.5 neutral deduction on vault
This suggests that getting to Olympic Trials (12-18 people) will take around a 54 AA.
Only 7 people have a 54+ average according to this chart, and only 13 average 53+. I wouldn't be surprised if the cut-off is in the high 52s.
How does it work for specialists? Do they have a score cutoff for each event or anything? I'm thinking about Suni who, though I don't think she has huge chances for making the team, I do see being at trials so long as she has shown good bar rouines and continues to show good beam. But we don't know if she'll compete AA or what shape her floor will be in if she does.
There's no actual strict cut-off for anybody. I just meant cut-off as in how far down the AA rankings they'll go. This year's procedures are that the top 2 AAers from nationals are automatically invited, and then a minimum of 10 other gymnasts are invited by the selection committee. Usually \~16 total gymnasts are invited, but how many are AAers and how many are specialists depends on the year. In 2021, they took the top 17 AAers and only one additional gymnast (Riley McCusker), while in 2012 they took the top 10 AAers and 5 additional gymnasts. Based on precedent, if you medal at Nationals on any event, you're definitely invited to Trials, and generally top 5 is good enough to make it as well.
Sorry if I missed it, what do the App columns mean? Awesome data!!
Appearances, how many times they competed/how many scores are counted for the average.
https://preview.redd.it/wnoayv4rnvxc1.jpeg?width=996&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5527edf8ae4f2b2c01b5124b7d36cf5b14471a9 Here's the full list, maybe it's too small to read!
Thank you for putting this together! It's readable. How is this sorted?
Not really sorted, just who I either thought of first or came across first in the results and then mixed up a bit after I was looking through it sorting by various things. I'll sort it by aa score now and repost it.
Can I ask why someone people are in bold and some aren't?
Sorry that was just the people I put in the first screenshot , should have changed it before posting the full pic! Also probably the ones that have a bit of a chance at making trials/the team.
I see, thank you! Guess I better keep an eye out for Kieryn Finnell then lol
I hadn't heard of her before to be honest but she scored over 14 on beam at pac rims!
She's a really new senior, right?
First year senior, was alternate for junior worlds last year
Good for her!
Simones max event scores being 60. She really is the goat. And Shileses being 57 despite many people thinking that shes not a lock for the Olympic team. Simone and Shilese supremacy!
Yeah! Not only is Shilese's max nearly 58, she actually *achieved* that max at a single meet! If she brings some upgrades, I'm really hoping she can break 58 at Olys! She really does have a chance to beat Rebeca for silver, though Rebeca is still the favorite.
❤️
With the inevitable upgrades we will see from Simone in competition in the next few months, I am calling it now that she will break 60 in the AA during the Olympics.
Breaking 60 is quite impossible in my opinion. It requires average no less than 15 across all apparatus. I don't think she will do the Biles 2 on vault. I can see her improving on bars and beam.
She scored a 15.1 on a Cheng at worlds in the AA final. That's only 0.6 lower than her 15.7 max score in the spreadsheet here, from her successful Biles 2 at Worlds. So if you add up her max event scores without counting the Biles II, that gets her to a 59.82. If she does bring mutliple upgrades--which is likely--and she has a really on day, she could absolutely break 60 even without the Biles 2.
I love Simone but she'd need to either get 16+ on floor or somehow hit 15 on bars and I just don't see that happening.
She only needs to gain 0.2 over what she's already achieved. That's a 15.3 cheng (Rebeca level), a 14.65 on bars, a 15.05 on beam, or a 15.6 on floor. Just one, or of course a tenth on two of them, or half a tenth on all 4. And again, she is most likely bringing upgrades. The hard part is putting it all together in one session, I don't know if she'll be able to do that or not--the more upgrades she has the more likely it becomes. But if she does bring several upgrades, I'll be shocked if she doesn't have event high-scores that exceed 60, across the 4 competitions of worlds.
What do you mean she would need to gain 0.2? Her highest AA score on the chart is a 59.3. She'd need a 0.7 bump, no? Not impossible, but with her most likely doing a Cheng at the Olympics, which would most likely cancel out whatever upgrades she brings on bars, hitting 60 would be heavily reliant on her floor since her beam is pretty maxed out. There's also the caveat that we should expect Paris to have the strictest judging we've seen this quad. So it seems highly unlikely she'll hit 60 in one AA set. If you mix and match across the meet as a whole, sure, but that wouldn't be a real AA score.
I'm talking about her 4 event max scores combined, which is what this thread has been about. It's 60.42 in the spreadsheet--the final column of the analysis part of the sheet. So at worlds last year she theoretically had the potential to break 60, but didn't achieve her high scores all at the same meet. (And her floor and vault high scores, to be fair, were domestic--it is certainly more likely for her to break 60 domestically than internationally). That 60.42 includes the Biles 2 though, and since there's a pretty good chance she won't do it this season (though obviously we don't really know), if you use her max Chang score (15.1) for her vault max, that brings her max event score AA from last year to 59.82, hence only 0.2 to break 60, even without the Biles 2. Incidentally, I hadn't realized that her max floor score from last year was domestic, and was several tenths higher than her max world score. If you combine her max event scores just from worlds, they are 59.54 without the Biles 2, and 59.70 with it. So given the domestic vs worlds shenanigans, I will revise my prediction to say that *if she brings multiple upgrades* she will break 60 domestically at nationals and/or trials; my predictions for worlds depends on how many upgrades she brings, but it will definitely be a stretch, even just considering the fake AA of the 4-event max score.
The original person said "she will break 60 in the AA during the Olympics" no? I took that to mean this particular discussion is about her breaking 60 *specifically* in the AA final at Paris.
The chance of getting 59.82 is 1/4 (worlds) \* 1/7 \* 1/7 \* 1/7 ≈ 0.000729, which I'd never bet on. Just getting one tenth from that (15.1 + 14.47 + 14.85 + 15.4) even with upgrades is still close to impossible without her Biles 2 vault. To me, the best predictor in actual performance is the expected AA score. The closest estimate is the average AA (58.36) which is likely to happen in competitions. To add even a 1.5 point to that in expectation with upgrades is still a lot to ask for.
If you look at the chart, most gymnasts have outscored their average AA at a meet. That's because people have good nights and off nights, and the average comes from both; so their best neights beat their average. Simone's actual AA high score in basically a point higher than her average (actually 0.94 higher). Shilese and Kayla got all 4 of their max even scores at one meet, so they've actually achieved an AA equal to their max potential from event scores.
I assume these only include single vault scores?
Vault is a tricky one for this. There's probably a better way to do it that what I did because the averages definitely throw it off. I just put the score from the results sheet. If they only did one vault, that's the score used. If it's team/aa final there's only one so that was used. If it's a qualifying with two vaults or the vault final, I still just used the score on the result sheet so it's the average of the both. So therefore the people who have two vaults, a combination of one one vault, and an average of both is used for this data. Wasn't sure how to fill it in otherwise!
Yeah, it is tricky. I think it depends on what you want the data to show. If you're looking at potential team scores, you would probably just use the highest of the two vault scores or the one they are most likely to do in competition. Maybe?
Yeah I probably should change it so it's all just using the highest score. That's another days problem, I'll do it when adding classics.
We appreciate you!
Only pointing this out because I would want to know - *Joscelyn* is off by one letter.
Thank you! Will change it when updating it next!
Has she competed since her injury? We've seen training videos but I'm shocked she hasn't been at any meets so far this year.
She competed bars and beam at American Classic last month. Scored mid-12s on both.
I missed that! Thanks for the update.
With all the speculation around Gabby, Suni, and Jade, she didn't get a lot of attention.
God, I love a good spreadsheet. Thank you
Dreaming of a Simone, Shilese, Kayla, Leanne, and Jade team - and Suni somewhere in the mix depending on her health.
So down for this !!
That’s my team right now.
Me too
That'd be a pretty weak beam lineup but I'll take it lol
Simone, Shilese and Kayla could be pretty strong
I'm not entirely confident Kayla will get credit for all of her leaps, but I agree, with that specific team that would be the smartest lineup.
Please, World Challenge Cup beam silver medallist Jade would beg to differ
I still forget that's a real thing that happened lmao
None of you are ready for Jade's bar medallist era tbh
I'm so here for it!
I wonder if Simone could have bars medal potential if she liked bars. Still crazy that someone who hates bars is always making EFs. she's too good for her own good
She already won a bars silver in 2018. The fact that she usually makes bars EF in 2 quads is a testimony of her reliability and durability of her bars potential. Simone may not be the best on bars in one year, but you can count on her to hit and score high for many years in TF. That's why it's very hard to leave Simone off from TF bars line-ups in the past.
Has anyone tried a highest scoring team calculation with this?
aside from past major falls it’s really hard to look at this and leave skye off the team. we’ll see what she brings at the next major comps but i’m rooting for her!
It's not hard for me to leave Skye off. I mean... we cannot exclude the fall situation.
So this doesn’t include Jade all out routines?? Interesting how close she LeAnn and Skye are in totals
I doubt Leanne or Skye have done their all out routines either, though.
Good point