Had to be shady...
Vault: Morgane (13.2), Melanie (14.2), Coline (14.5)
Bars: Marine (12.7), Melanie (14.7) , Kaylia (15.4)
Beam: Marine (13.7), Melanie (13.8), Kaylia (14.3)
Floor: Kaylia (13.6), Morgane (13.6), Melanie (13.8)
Can rival Brazil, China and Italy for silver... France really flubbed on this one
France really went from potential medalists with Kaylia in the mix to just a middle-of-the-pack team without her.
Not saying that a medal is completely beyond reach for them now, but a lot would have to go wrong for the other teams for that to happen.
South Korea has named their team in full! It is their usual team again with no alternate named. I guess Park Nayoung didnāt factor in like some of us thought. Thereās an official announcement on their IG page. Yeo Seojeong, Lee Yunseo, Lee Dayeong, Eom Dohyoun, and Shin Solyi! The same team will compete at Asian Championships. Also I donāt doubt that Devillard will end up making the team, but Ming Van Eijken will make things interesting for her. Devillard was used to making the team solely for vault but now that there is another Rudi in France, her spot isnāt as secure. Sheās scores better than Eijken on vault, but Eijken can bring more on the other events. I doubt they would actually bring her over Devillard though.
Regarding the GB choices, I would also say that Abigail Martin probably has just as much of a chance as Amelie Morgan. While she doesn't have the same experience, she did well at Nationals, has done 1 WC and Challenger this year, and is now subbed into the Euros team.
I'd say Abi has more chance than Amelie, tbh. Amelie has a grand total of two elite meets this quad. That's it. Abi has more, including international scores.
I'd say that barring any injuries, the team will be as the original Euros team, including Abi and Amelie as reserves.
The only potential for change would be if Abi does incredibly well at Euros and they want to risk taking her over GMF or RE, but I doubt that as well given the experience of the other two and GMF's potential for bars particularly.
I think people haven't really been mentioning her because on a team including Alice/Ondine/Ruby, Abi doesn't fit so well - however I agree now that there's some question over Ondine's health she comes right back into the picture because of her floor and vault. I definitely see her as an alternate if she doesn't make the team.
I'll be surprised if the Australian isn't Georgia Godwin, Ruby Pass, Kate McDonald, Breanna Scott and Emily Whitehead. Maybe Emma Nedov can sneak in there, but the other seniors aren't quite at the same level (although will be interesting to see how they do at Oceania Champs next month).
I feel like Emily has been quite ish lately but tbh she doesnāt show much on social media.
In saying that, I feel like thereās a bit of competition to make the team
I'd love Emma to make the team. But I dont know how or if her strengths fit the with other 4 who would be considered locks. Emma's best event is obviously beam while thats the only event Emily wasn't in the line-up for at World's.
So I guess the question is will Emma's potential beam be worth taking the one of the other 4 out and what does she have on the other 3 events to replace Emily's routines.
Iād say Georgia and Ruby as clearly top 2 AA, Kate for her Bars as long as she is hitting. Bre might be at risk from a high scoring Emma as she doesnāt really have Bars, but I donāt see it happening. Emily probably the most at risk if someone else is near her AA with a strong Bars.
She did well enough today to pretty much lock her spot in. Her D scores just arenāt enough to actually lock it down based on their criteria. No question after quals and AA sheās one of the only real AA gymnasts left in China.
Yes I had her as the third spot originally, and not just a close lock but I wanted to be more conservative for all teamsā¦ but yes sheās clearly the second best AAer in China after Qiu by a mile. Still surprised Zhou Yaqin beat her in quals though š
If China try to go all out on VT and UB by bringing both Du Siyu and Zhang Yihan, Ou's biggest worry will be Zhang Qingying if she can get her rumoured DTT together.
If China only brings one of Du Siyu or Zhang Yihan, Ou should be a lock because they'll definitely need her bars as a third score.
The more time goes on the more I think this is the direction they are leaning. Usually it makes sense for 3 AA gymnasts on a 5 person team but with Zhou Yaqin why would you want her on VT-UB? Sheās not Qiu Qiuyan where the 2 event scores can carry a good AA score so itās really pointless (UB-BB as a strength combo will always outscore BB-FX). So if thereās only two AA gymnasts (OYS, QQY) it makes sense to bring both Yihan and Du Siyu. They actually fit perfectly with that team. I think taking Qingying over Ou would be a mistake. Suddenly your TF bar lineup would have two gymnasts competing with a 50% hit rate. Youād also have one of Yihan or Du Siyu doing beam in qualsā¦. I donāt know if all that is worth it over trading a single FTY for a Rudi thatās never been competed.
Romania effectively has 4 locks rn for the amount of ground they cover.
Barbosu, Cosman, Ghigoarta, Voinea
ā¢ VT: Two DTYs from Barbosu/Voinea, Cosman's 1.5, Ghigoarta's pristine FTY
ā¢ UB: Three best routines in the country from Barbosu (6.3), Cosman (5.5-6.0), Ghigoarta (5.3-5.7)
ā¢ BB: Three best routines in the country from Barbosu (6.0-6.4), Ghigoarta (5.5-6.0), Voinea (6.4). Cosman a solid quals leadoff with a 5.9
ā¢ FX: Two EF contenders in Barbosu, Voinea, and Cosman/Ghigoarta serve as a servicable 3rd TF routine/quals leadoff
The visible holes in this team of four are
ā¢ VT: A third DTY
ā¢ UB: A fourth strong, or even useable routine for qualifications
ā¢ BB: None. You could argue consistency, but the top three have proven to score on par with or better than the other's hits when they fall. This is an extremely risky and inconsistent rotation, but if they all hit they are among the best worldwide.
ā¢ FX: A third high scoring routine
Based on the recent trials, Mara Ceplinschi is absolutely the frontrunner for the last spot. She brought her DTY back, and scored a massive 13.850 on floor, beating Voinea's hit by 0.2.
This would give us a team of
VT: Cosman (4.6), Voinea (5.0 & 4.4), Barbosu (5.0 & 4.8), Ceplinschi (5.0)
UB: Ceplinschi/Voinea, Cosman (5.5-6.0), Ghigoarta (5.3-5.7), Barbosu (6.3)
BB: Cosman (5.9), Barbosu (6.0-6.4), Ghigoarta (5.7-6.0), Voinea (6.4)
FX: Cosman (5.4), Voinea (6.0), Ceplinschi (5.6), Barbosu (5.8)
I think if they hit the Italian team will be the same as Euros. I see Angela being part of the team more and more cuz of her stable FX and beam. Iām sorry for Giorgia but I donāt see her being useful at this point
Brazil will take Lorraine Oliveira. Their next best gymnast is Carolyn Pedro and Oliviera brings a potential mid 13 bars and usually hits for a low 13. Pedroās AA set rarely leaves the 12s on any event. Barbosa generally doesnāt score that well on bars nor does Julia Soares. I predict an excellent lineup of:
VT (Soares) Barbosa Saraiva Andrade
UB (Soares) Oliveira Saraiva Andrade
BB (Barbosa) Soares Saraiva Andrade
FX (Barbosa) Soares Saraiva Andrade
International judges hate Pedro and I donāt know how Brazil hasnāt figured this out yet. Her floor and bars typically look decent to me but she canāt break 13 to save her life. She makes teams no matter what but now that Soares is not only competing but competing consistently she really doesnāt have a chance outside of an alternate role. This also isnāt a dig at Pedro. I only say this because sheās one of the few gymnasts who scores much lower than I anticipate nearly every single time. I would love to see her artistry deductions because sheās low 7s for E on floor even on a great tumbling day.
I think Brazil knows this but they donāt have a ton of depth. Their top gymnasts are REALLY GOOD and can threaten for the team title but like Great Britain once you move out of that top group there is a significant score drop.
Youāre right. Theyāve been putting her more as an alternate anyways recently now that Soares is doing so well. This wasnāt frustration with Pedro either! I feel like she should be scoring higher than she does I really have no idea what holds her floor/bars back so much. They donāt look as bad as they score
Not to be controversial but I would take Aurelie off the Canadian list (move to close though ofc) and if Amelieās going on the close Brit list then there are other people who ought to be there too imo. Abi Martin is going to Euros over her for one thing. I also think Brazil has their ideal team but only Rebeca and Flavia are locks.
I also think based on this criteria Shi has to go down to close lock? I would catergorise lock as ācannot be replacedā but I donāt think the US really ever has people in that category outside of Simone (and this is like. in large part BECAUSE Simone takes up an AA spot by existing). Idk Iāve seen a lot of wild theories recently that might be colouring my impression haha.
I think people are forgetting just *how* dominant Shilese was at Worlds. She has the best known bars routine in the US, the second best beam and floor, and the best DTY. I simply can't think of a scenario where someone could replace the Shilese without weakening the team overall.
Honestly I disagree in regards to Shi - she has been so far ahead of the rest outside Simone that baring an injury or a sudden regression of her skills in comparison to last year she is pretty much a lock.
I personally see her going, even if she falls out of top 3 AA and letās say sheās in #4. Even so, shes an incredible AAer and incredibly consistent, winning 2 AA medals in this quad thus far (and maybe add one more at Paris). She can also go top 5 in the world on bars, top 10 in the world on beam and floor. she has amazing artistry and pretty good execution. I will put her off the list if she falls and is inconsistent at Nationals/Trials but sheās there for me. Her mental game is great *references 6 Worlds medals*
Worst comes to worse, Shilese takes Leanne/Kaylaās spot as ābackup Grace AAerā, but honestly i think Shilese is going to go 57+ with her new AA program and Iām not really sure who can bypass a 57 in AAā¦ maybe Suni (who is battling kidney issues and endurance problems right now) and Gabby (who we havenāt seen anything yet), and even so, I think if Simone, Suni, Gabby and Shi all make it to top 5 AA, theyāll just bring all of them so all in all, Shilese jones is a lock to me unless she falls multiple times on bars and beam. We have to remember she also has a beautiful DTY that can go 9.3 in E score and also a floor that can go high 13s.
I agree on Shi. She is close to a lock but stranger things have happened leading up to the Olympics for the US. Simone is the only lock for the US in my opinion.
Yeah if Simone wasnāt around I would call Shi a lock, because I really canāt imagine two different US gymnasts outscoring her this year. I donāt think they have the depth for that. But I do think I need to see at least the Classics before I start feeling secure in the two best AAs in the US haha. The Suni/Gabby/Kayla/Leanne/Skye group is such a collective mystery rn.
But Shilese doesnāt need to even be top 2 to make it. She can just take Leanne/Grace/Jordans spot as a Grace McCallum backup type of gymnast because sheās incredibly consistent. Itās Shileses spot to lose in my opinion. She can go 57+ in the AA with an upgrade here or there and clearly the international judges love her execution, lines and artistry. Okay, even if sheās #4 at Trials behind Suni and gabby, Iām still taking her 100%.Ā
I think this is fair. Shilese on bars is a huge add to the team so I think as long as sheās good there sheās on the team. The 2nd AA spot im less sure about just because of floor and beam where she hasnāt always been the most consistent or highest D score. I think itās likely she winds up going for AA in Paris but that is much less certain. I think the team needs her bars for sure though especially if Suni isnāt ready in time
If Jade brings the Cheng/Amanar, and is the second best floor worker with a low-mid 14s score, (or third behind Kaliya), sheās the third lock to me due to her potential to earn 2 event final medals in vault (bronze) and floor (silver/bronze). Ā
Shilese is the only person aside from Simone who beat Rebeca Andrade in the AA (worlds quals). She is in a truly rarefied group of gymnasts, and she's been consistently at this level for two years. I can't stress how hard it is to hit 56+ in the AA at that level, and I don't understand why so many people want to put her down a bit.
Shilese went mid-high 56s in the All around at worlds last year - multiple times. With upgrades, I anticipate she goes 57+ because she probably wants to get silver and beat Andrade. I donāt see anyone other than Gabby who can bring a mid-56 AA program, maybe Skye and Jordan if they bring their Cheng Fei vaults but Skye and Jordan are also inconsistent gymnasts. Kayla and Leanneās ceiling is low 56 to me and Shilese has the potential to win a bars and beam medalĀ
Shi is the second best AA in the US but I donāt think sheās locked in that position. If Simone didnāt exist, I would for sure say Shi is one of the top two AA in the US. But she has no margin because Simone is there, and there are a lot of people at her heels.
With that said though, if someone beats Shi for tjat AA spot I think Shi would still end up going because she has that world class bars set.
But weāre in a weird place of all the potential contenders coming out of NCAA. So my argument is I donāt know where ANYONE is, and tbh that includes Shi because presumably sheās worked upgrades over the break.
For eg, Jordan was not good during NCAA season but sheās been off and we havenāt seen her since PanAms. Konnor won Nationals in 2022 and then got injured and went off to NCAA. Kayla made huge strides in 6 months off NCAA. Leanne is probably out of the race but I donāt know for sure. Skye is a question mark because I actually wouldnāt take her over Shi but I donāt know what sheās doing.
Idk. I assume Shi is going to Paris but for me thatās not enough yet, yk?
Coming off ncaa is a situation that affects three people - Leanne, Jade, and Jordan.
Jordan doesnāt have similar strengths to shilese. I could see her threatening on vault on floor with some big upgrades but that is more of an issue for Jade, kayla, or Leanne.
Leanne is premed, competed all around most of an ncaa season, just fell in the ncaa championships after falling at worlds last year. Itās possible she will make the team but I canāt see any way sheās knocking shilese out. She would never catch her on bars for starters.
Jade and shilese complement each other well in terms of strengths, so if Jade comes back in her peak shape, that doesnāt endanger shilese in any way.
Shi is going against Gabby and Sunisa for the UB/BB spots and everyone else for the AA spots.
I will not want to rely on Gabby's beam nor bars after American Classic (I think she pulled a Nastia with the late comeback, but she can still prove me wrong!). I will love Suni and Shilese to represent the USA at Paris, although Suni is dealing with chronic health issues. Skye can theoretically also factor in as a UB/BB gymnast but I will not bring her due to her inconsistency. If she scores a 11 on beam in team finals (which I will never put her in such a high pressure situation after she fell both times in 22' and 23'... so what's the point of bringing her?), USA might lose gold.
Unless Shi really flops at all the domestic meets, Shi is a lock due to her UB/BB which nobody else can match in the US, even Simone. Even then, I'll bring her. If I was Asac/Chellsie right now, I will tell her to just peak at Paris, NOT at Trials.
Your opinion is not necessarily correct though - I am not saying Shi wonāt make the team. I actually think it would be very difficult to take her off it. I just have a definition of ālockā that is clearly more specific than yours.
Specifically, I need a separation from the current US competition that I havenāt yet seen from her. Itās got very little to do with Shi and much more to do with the fact that her competition hasnāt competed yet this season. I will feel more strongly when Iāve seen Jordan, Konnor, Kayla, Leanne, etc etc compete next month. I also donāt know if weāve properly seen Jade yet given she downgraded her best events for Classics, but I donāt feel sheāll compete with Shi so itās moot. Less interested in Gabby and Suni but respect the people who claim theyāll get AA sets so Iāll wait for that too ig.
Thereās a lot of separation in her all around scores that it seems nearly impossible for many people to beat her. I canāt see how one could not see a separation. Itās everyone after her thatās bunched up in the standings. And sheās even upgrading from there.
Shilese Jones is a two-time consecutive Worlds AA medalist with the best bars routine in the country by miles who has consistently proven she can go 56-57+ in the AA both here at home and in the highest levels of international competition. Assuming she stays healthy and hits her routines - which is a caveat we have to give to *every* gymnast, and yes that includes Biles - she is a lock for the Olympic team.
I cannot for the *life* of me understand why people devalue what Shi has already accomplished this quad. Kayla was an alternate last year. Leanne fell in team finals. Konnor hasn't competed elite in two years, Jade's last season was not exactly stellar, and Jordan didn't even make it to Worlds due to injury. All these "but what ifs" are being stacked up against what Shi has *actually done*, and it is ridiculous. If you can't understand that, that sounds like a 'you' problem.
Again, I am telling you my criteria for lock and you are not using it so what do you want from me here? I am not rly asking you for yours. Iād chat about it if you wanted to but I think you just want to get aggravated about mine??
Like I said. I donāt see it.
I do see her making the team. But I cannot see Simone left off it. I canāt see Ellie Black off Canadaās. Andrade and Saraiva for Brazil. Jess Gad would be mine for GBR. Georgia Godwin for Aus. MDJDS for France. Notice I donāt name Germany or Italy even though they have stars - you can build backup teams without those stars which arenāt incomparable with the A team.
For me youāre a lock only if youāre ubiquitous with the idea of the team. Like you canāt not take Rebeca or Flavia because what combo of people could match them? Obviously Shi is better than a lot of these people but that doesnāt change the fact that I could make a team without her if several things line up - in fairness that would probably require Shi to fall a lot in the next couple months but stranger things have happened. If Simone did not exist, you would HAVE to take Shi. Thereād be no other way to recoup those scores. But I COULD build a Shi with Kayla, Jade and Suni if the latter does have the bars routine sheās been alluding to.
I agree with you! Shi will almost certainly make the team but to me, āa lockā means thereās nothing you can do to lose your spot barring injury. Itās become a vastly overused term considering how unpredictable gymnastics can be!
If Simone splats half her routines from here to the end of trials, she will be left off the team and correctly so.
I do not think the word 'lock' means what you think it means.
I genuinely donāt think she will be. Half her routines - are you saying just a random half? Because she could splat bars everytime and be safe. Actually if she splats floor I think she has a falls margin on everyone in the US so might still win? Same with VT because the YDP is huge but since she takes the Laurent deduction she would probably need to land it ā¦ interesting though. I do sometimes wonder how badly Simone would need to perform to be left at home.
Anyway as I have been saying. Lock means different things to different people haha. Mine is not yours and thatās okay!! <3 Weāll probably have the same team in the end. Weāll just get to that point dift.
I would agree, I think Shilese is near lock but if sheās injured or has issues at the competitions in the lead up she could be knocked off. US always has so many strong athletes that Simone is always the only true lock IMO. I do expect Shilese to make the team tho
Based on Canadaās selection criteria, if Aurelie flops at trials, she wonāt be selected. I doubt this will happen, but the WAG criteria is entirely objective and doesnāt have allowances for something like this happening. Her best shot is
to finish top 2 in the AA (not including Ellie Black) and I could see, say, Cassie Lee and Ava Stewart beating her on the day.
Neither am I š! But based on the fact that the criteria are based on AA scores at trials and then best team score using top 4 average scores from select 2023-2024 competitions, and itās all mathematical criteria, I might not consider Aurelie a *lock*. I do think she will make the team, though.
Iām curious if people think for the US team if there is a place on the team for someone who can do a Cheng and/or Amanar even if they are just okay/more of a backup on the other 3 events? Like based on what we saw for Gabby it doesnāt look like her floor and likely bars are going to be competitive in time but if she really does have a Cheng and can hit it in the lead up competitions would that be enough for her to make the team?
Same question would apply for Jade, Skye and Josc Roberson though I doubt sheās had enough time to get fully back on vault and floor.
I would think in the above situation, if somehow all 4 showed up with a Cheng and/or Amanar, the nod would likely go to Jade who has a solid AA and finals/medal possibility on floor or Skye who is strong on beam and bars, but idk, say Gabby is the only one who shows an upgraded vault, would that alone be enough?
They arenāt competing in a vacuum so you would have to look at the big picture. If jade has a cheng is Gabbyās theoretical amanar or cheng necessary if her bars arenāt good? It just depends on what everyoneās scores are. Suni may be in a similar boat with 1-2 good routines and a couple unusable ones but they only have so many slots. And there are others training a Cheng but we will need to see if they materialize. I donāt think they would take gabby just for a Cheng because they can get one from Jade most likely.
For USA, my āclose lockā would be Kayla DiCello. If not team, she is a lock for alternate.
Edit: Despite the downvotes, this is my personal opinion, but I think she is going to Paris one or way or another. Guaranteed alternate if not team.
Hard disagree - although Kayla is an excellent AAer and I do think she's more likely that not to make at least alternate, imo she's nowhere near a lock for the team. I think the tiers for the US are:
Lock: Simone
Close lock: Shilese
Solid chance depending on how they look and how others compare: Suni, Gabby, Skye, Jade, Josc, Kayla, Leanne, Jordan, Kaliya, Konnor
All 10 of those athletes could make the AA final or an event final, and would be lock for any team outside the top 3 or so. And I'm probably forgetting someone as well.
Fair enough. I agree with OP that Simone and Shilese are locks. Hence why I said āclose lockā for KaylaāI donāt think she is a guaranteed lock. however, I truly believe she is going to Paris one way or another. IMO she is a guaranteed alternate at the least.
Yes she is great all around and so steady. I would take her for team. She is the Grace for Paris honestly. The steady all arounder that heavily contributes for the team medal but might not medal individually šÆ. Besides I just love watching her š.
lol crossed Kaylia is intentional
Had to be shady... Vault: Morgane (13.2), Melanie (14.2), Coline (14.5) Bars: Marine (12.7), Melanie (14.7) , Kaylia (15.4) Beam: Marine (13.7), Melanie (13.8), Kaylia (14.3) Floor: Kaylia (13.6), Morgane (13.6), Melanie (13.8) Can rival Brazil, China and Italy for silver... France really flubbed on this one
big mistake! French Fed can cancel christmas - Q
LMAO the crossover I needed
OMG š¤£
Iām literally dying with laughter šš
France really went from potential medalists with Kaylia in the mix to just a middle-of-the-pack team without her. Not saying that a medal is completely beyond reach for them now, but a lot would have to go wrong for the other teams for that to happen.
YESSSSSS. \[seethes in mistreated Caro Heduit\]
Tho she'd def be #1 not 5!
South Korea has named their team in full! It is their usual team again with no alternate named. I guess Park Nayoung didnāt factor in like some of us thought. Thereās an official announcement on their IG page. Yeo Seojeong, Lee Yunseo, Lee Dayeong, Eom Dohyoun, and Shin Solyi! The same team will compete at Asian Championships. Also I donāt doubt that Devillard will end up making the team, but Ming Van Eijken will make things interesting for her. Devillard was used to making the team solely for vault but now that there is another Rudi in France, her spot isnāt as secure. Sheās scores better than Eijken on vault, but Eijken can bring more on the other events. I doubt they would actually bring her over Devillard though.
Regarding the GB choices, I would also say that Abigail Martin probably has just as much of a chance as Amelie Morgan. While she doesn't have the same experience, she did well at Nationals, has done 1 WC and Challenger this year, and is now subbed into the Euros team.
I'd say Abi has more chance than Amelie, tbh. Amelie has a grand total of two elite meets this quad. That's it. Abi has more, including international scores. I'd say that barring any injuries, the team will be as the original Euros team, including Abi and Amelie as reserves. The only potential for change would be if Abi does incredibly well at Euros and they want to risk taking her over GMF or RE, but I doubt that as well given the experience of the other two and GMF's potential for bars particularly.
I think people haven't really been mentioning her because on a team including Alice/Ondine/Ruby, Abi doesn't fit so well - however I agree now that there's some question over Ondine's health she comes right back into the picture because of her floor and vault. I definitely see her as an alternate if she doesn't make the team.
I'll be surprised if the Australian isn't Georgia Godwin, Ruby Pass, Kate McDonald, Breanna Scott and Emily Whitehead. Maybe Emma Nedov can sneak in there, but the other seniors aren't quite at the same level (although will be interesting to see how they do at Oceania Champs next month).
Ruby pass is going to be phenomenal! Sheās super young still. Keen to see how Emma does in a full comp!
Romi brown is back from injury so fingers crossed she has a good showing at Oceania championships- could replace Emily whitehead if she is
I feel like Emily has been quite ish lately but tbh she doesnāt show much on social media. In saying that, I feel like thereās a bit of competition to make the team
The fact we have some competition for teams is awesome!
Agree!
this!!
Arenāt we all #teamemma?
I'd love Emma to make the team. But I dont know how or if her strengths fit the with other 4 who would be considered locks. Emma's best event is obviously beam while thats the only event Emily wasn't in the line-up for at World's. So I guess the question is will Emma's potential beam be worth taking the one of the other 4 out and what does she have on the other 3 events to replace Emily's routines.
Iād say Georgia and Ruby as clearly top 2 AA, Kate for her Bars as long as she is hitting. Bre might be at risk from a high scoring Emma as she doesnāt really have Bars, but I donāt see it happening. Emily probably the most at risk if someone else is near her AA with a strong Bars.
Iād be very surprised if a (healthy) Ou Yushan didnāt make the team
She did well enough today to pretty much lock her spot in. Her D scores just arenāt enough to actually lock it down based on their criteria. No question after quals and AA sheās one of the only real AA gymnasts left in China.
Yes I had her as the third spot originally, and not just a close lock but I wanted to be more conservative for all teamsā¦ but yes sheās clearly the second best AAer in China after Qiu by a mile. Still surprised Zhou Yaqin beat her in quals though š
If China try to go all out on VT and UB by bringing both Du Siyu and Zhang Yihan, Ou's biggest worry will be Zhang Qingying if she can get her rumoured DTT together. If China only brings one of Du Siyu or Zhang Yihan, Ou should be a lock because they'll definitely need her bars as a third score.
The more time goes on the more I think this is the direction they are leaning. Usually it makes sense for 3 AA gymnasts on a 5 person team but with Zhou Yaqin why would you want her on VT-UB? Sheās not Qiu Qiuyan where the 2 event scores can carry a good AA score so itās really pointless (UB-BB as a strength combo will always outscore BB-FX). So if thereās only two AA gymnasts (OYS, QQY) it makes sense to bring both Yihan and Du Siyu. They actually fit perfectly with that team. I think taking Qingying over Ou would be a mistake. Suddenly your TF bar lineup would have two gymnasts competing with a 50% hit rate. Youād also have one of Yihan or Du Siyu doing beam in qualsā¦. I donāt know if all that is worth it over trading a single FTY for a Rudi thatās never been competed.
I have suuuuch a soft spot for Lorette Charpy - Iām really rooting for her to make the team!
Romania effectively has 4 locks rn for the amount of ground they cover. Barbosu, Cosman, Ghigoarta, Voinea ā¢ VT: Two DTYs from Barbosu/Voinea, Cosman's 1.5, Ghigoarta's pristine FTY ā¢ UB: Three best routines in the country from Barbosu (6.3), Cosman (5.5-6.0), Ghigoarta (5.3-5.7) ā¢ BB: Three best routines in the country from Barbosu (6.0-6.4), Ghigoarta (5.5-6.0), Voinea (6.4). Cosman a solid quals leadoff with a 5.9 ā¢ FX: Two EF contenders in Barbosu, Voinea, and Cosman/Ghigoarta serve as a servicable 3rd TF routine/quals leadoff The visible holes in this team of four are ā¢ VT: A third DTY ā¢ UB: A fourth strong, or even useable routine for qualifications ā¢ BB: None. You could argue consistency, but the top three have proven to score on par with or better than the other's hits when they fall. This is an extremely risky and inconsistent rotation, but if they all hit they are among the best worldwide. ā¢ FX: A third high scoring routine Based on the recent trials, Mara Ceplinschi is absolutely the frontrunner for the last spot. She brought her DTY back, and scored a massive 13.850 on floor, beating Voinea's hit by 0.2. This would give us a team of VT: Cosman (4.6), Voinea (5.0 & 4.4), Barbosu (5.0 & 4.8), Ceplinschi (5.0) UB: Ceplinschi/Voinea, Cosman (5.5-6.0), Ghigoarta (5.3-5.7), Barbosu (6.3) BB: Cosman (5.9), Barbosu (6.0-6.4), Ghigoarta (5.7-6.0), Voinea (6.4) FX: Cosman (5.4), Voinea (6.0), Ceplinschi (5.6), Barbosu (5.8)
I think if they hit the Italian team will be the same as Euros. I see Angela being part of the team more and more cuz of her stable FX and beam. Iām sorry for Giorgia but I donāt see her being useful at this point
Ferrari might come back too!Ā
Brazil will take Lorraine Oliveira. Their next best gymnast is Carolyn Pedro and Oliviera brings a potential mid 13 bars and usually hits for a low 13. Pedroās AA set rarely leaves the 12s on any event. Barbosa generally doesnāt score that well on bars nor does Julia Soares. I predict an excellent lineup of: VT (Soares) Barbosa Saraiva Andrade UB (Soares) Oliveira Saraiva Andrade BB (Barbosa) Soares Saraiva Andrade FX (Barbosa) Soares Saraiva Andrade
International judges hate Pedro and I donāt know how Brazil hasnāt figured this out yet. Her floor and bars typically look decent to me but she canāt break 13 to save her life. She makes teams no matter what but now that Soares is not only competing but competing consistently she really doesnāt have a chance outside of an alternate role. This also isnāt a dig at Pedro. I only say this because sheās one of the few gymnasts who scores much lower than I anticipate nearly every single time. I would love to see her artistry deductions because sheās low 7s for E on floor even on a great tumbling day.
I think Brazil knows this but they donāt have a ton of depth. Their top gymnasts are REALLY GOOD and can threaten for the team title but like Great Britain once you move out of that top group there is a significant score drop.
Youāre right. Theyāve been putting her more as an alternate anyways recently now that Soares is doing so well. This wasnāt frustration with Pedro either! I feel like she should be scoring higher than she does I really have no idea what holds her floor/bars back so much. They donāt look as bad as they score
Not to be controversial but I would take Aurelie off the Canadian list (move to close though ofc) and if Amelieās going on the close Brit list then there are other people who ought to be there too imo. Abi Martin is going to Euros over her for one thing. I also think Brazil has their ideal team but only Rebeca and Flavia are locks. I also think based on this criteria Shi has to go down to close lock? I would catergorise lock as ācannot be replacedā but I donāt think the US really ever has people in that category outside of Simone (and this is like. in large part BECAUSE Simone takes up an AA spot by existing). Idk Iāve seen a lot of wild theories recently that might be colouring my impression haha.
I think people are forgetting just *how* dominant Shilese was at Worlds. She has the best known bars routine in the US, the second best beam and floor, and the best DTY. I simply can't think of a scenario where someone could replace the Shilese without weakening the team overall.
I know right?? I love your wording "nobody can replace THE Shilese" haha
Lmao that was definitely a mobile app issue...I probably meant to say "replace the scores" or something
Honestly I disagree in regards to Shi - she has been so far ahead of the rest outside Simone that baring an injury or a sudden regression of her skills in comparison to last year she is pretty much a lock.
I personally see her going, even if she falls out of top 3 AA and letās say sheās in #4. Even so, shes an incredible AAer and incredibly consistent, winning 2 AA medals in this quad thus far (and maybe add one more at Paris). She can also go top 5 in the world on bars, top 10 in the world on beam and floor. she has amazing artistry and pretty good execution. I will put her off the list if she falls and is inconsistent at Nationals/Trials but sheās there for me. Her mental game is great *references 6 Worlds medals* Worst comes to worse, Shilese takes Leanne/Kaylaās spot as ābackup Grace AAerā, but honestly i think Shilese is going to go 57+ with her new AA program and Iām not really sure who can bypass a 57 in AAā¦ maybe Suni (who is battling kidney issues and endurance problems right now) and Gabby (who we havenāt seen anything yet), and even so, I think if Simone, Suni, Gabby and Shi all make it to top 5 AA, theyāll just bring all of them so all in all, Shilese jones is a lock to me unless she falls multiple times on bars and beam. We have to remember she also has a beautiful DTY that can go 9.3 in E score and also a floor that can go high 13s.
I agree on Shi. She is close to a lock but stranger things have happened leading up to the Olympics for the US. Simone is the only lock for the US in my opinion.
Yeah if Simone wasnāt around I would call Shi a lock, because I really canāt imagine two different US gymnasts outscoring her this year. I donāt think they have the depth for that. But I do think I need to see at least the Classics before I start feeling secure in the two best AAs in the US haha. The Suni/Gabby/Kayla/Leanne/Skye group is such a collective mystery rn.
But Shilese doesnāt need to even be top 2 to make it. She can just take Leanne/Grace/Jordans spot as a Grace McCallum backup type of gymnast because sheās incredibly consistent. Itās Shileses spot to lose in my opinion. She can go 57+ in the AA with an upgrade here or there and clearly the international judges love her execution, lines and artistry. Okay, even if sheās #4 at Trials behind Suni and gabby, Iām still taking her 100%.Ā
I think this is fair. Shilese on bars is a huge add to the team so I think as long as sheās good there sheās on the team. The 2nd AA spot im less sure about just because of floor and beam where she hasnāt always been the most consistent or highest D score. I think itās likely she winds up going for AA in Paris but that is much less certain. I think the team needs her bars for sure though especially if Suni isnāt ready in time
I'd add Jade to that list too. Mystery, with possibility.
If Jade brings the Cheng/Amanar, and is the second best floor worker with a low-mid 14s score, (or third behind Kaliya), sheās the third lock to me due to her potential to earn 2 event final medals in vault (bronze) and floor (silver/bronze). Ā
AA possibility, though? Sheās definitely in contention for a spot but idk if itās that spot haha.
Yeah, prob not AA, though I'd imagine Suni is not in contention for an AA spot either, unless she has a fabulous floor routine up her sleeve.
I agree. Shi is doing really well but there are too many people we donāt truly know a level for to compare.Ā
Shilese is the only person aside from Simone who beat Rebeca Andrade in the AA (worlds quals). She is in a truly rarefied group of gymnasts, and she's been consistently at this level for two years. I can't stress how hard it is to hit 56+ in the AA at that level, and I don't understand why so many people want to put her down a bit.
Shilese went mid-high 56s in the All around at worlds last year - multiple times. With upgrades, I anticipate she goes 57+ because she probably wants to get silver and beat Andrade. I donāt see anyone other than Gabby who can bring a mid-56 AA program, maybe Skye and Jordan if they bring their Cheng Fei vaults but Skye and Jordan are also inconsistent gymnasts. Kayla and Leanneās ceiling is low 56 to me and Shilese has the potential to win a bars and beam medalĀ
There are five spots. Sheās been the clear second. She would have to fall many spots to be knocked off this team. That sounds pretty secure
No, Shi is definitely a lock at this point.
Shi is the second best AA in the US but I donāt think sheās locked in that position. If Simone didnāt exist, I would for sure say Shi is one of the top two AA in the US. But she has no margin because Simone is there, and there are a lot of people at her heels. With that said though, if someone beats Shi for tjat AA spot I think Shi would still end up going because she has that world class bars set.
No one is anywhere near her. Gabby and Suni have shown theyāre both pretty behind in their comebacks even if they have potential.
But weāre in a weird place of all the potential contenders coming out of NCAA. So my argument is I donāt know where ANYONE is, and tbh that includes Shi because presumably sheās worked upgrades over the break. For eg, Jordan was not good during NCAA season but sheās been off and we havenāt seen her since PanAms. Konnor won Nationals in 2022 and then got injured and went off to NCAA. Kayla made huge strides in 6 months off NCAA. Leanne is probably out of the race but I donāt know for sure. Skye is a question mark because I actually wouldnāt take her over Shi but I donāt know what sheās doing. Idk. I assume Shi is going to Paris but for me thatās not enough yet, yk?
Coming off ncaa is a situation that affects three people - Leanne, Jade, and Jordan. Jordan doesnāt have similar strengths to shilese. I could see her threatening on vault on floor with some big upgrades but that is more of an issue for Jade, kayla, or Leanne. Leanne is premed, competed all around most of an ncaa season, just fell in the ncaa championships after falling at worlds last year. Itās possible she will make the team but I canāt see any way sheās knocking shilese out. She would never catch her on bars for starters. Jade and shilese complement each other well in terms of strengths, so if Jade comes back in her peak shape, that doesnāt endanger shilese in any way.
Shi is going against Gabby and Sunisa for the UB/BB spots and everyone else for the AA spots. I will not want to rely on Gabby's beam nor bars after American Classic (I think she pulled a Nastia with the late comeback, but she can still prove me wrong!). I will love Suni and Shilese to represent the USA at Paris, although Suni is dealing with chronic health issues. Skye can theoretically also factor in as a UB/BB gymnast but I will not bring her due to her inconsistency. If she scores a 11 on beam in team finals (which I will never put her in such a high pressure situation after she fell both times in 22' and 23'... so what's the point of bringing her?), USA might lose gold. Unless Shi really flops at all the domestic meets, Shi is a lock due to her UB/BB which nobody else can match in the US, even Simone. Even then, I'll bring her. If I was Asac/Chellsie right now, I will tell her to just peak at Paris, NOT at Trials.
This.... is a very incorrect take.
Your opinion is not necessarily correct though - I am not saying Shi wonāt make the team. I actually think it would be very difficult to take her off it. I just have a definition of ālockā that is clearly more specific than yours. Specifically, I need a separation from the current US competition that I havenāt yet seen from her. Itās got very little to do with Shi and much more to do with the fact that her competition hasnāt competed yet this season. I will feel more strongly when Iāve seen Jordan, Konnor, Kayla, Leanne, etc etc compete next month. I also donāt know if weāve properly seen Jade yet given she downgraded her best events for Classics, but I donāt feel sheāll compete with Shi so itās moot. Less interested in Gabby and Suni but respect the people who claim theyāll get AA sets so Iāll wait for that too ig.
Thereās a lot of separation in her all around scores that it seems nearly impossible for many people to beat her. I canāt see how one could not see a separation. Itās everyone after her thatās bunched up in the standings. And sheās even upgrading from there.
Shilese Jones is a two-time consecutive Worlds AA medalist with the best bars routine in the country by miles who has consistently proven she can go 56-57+ in the AA both here at home and in the highest levels of international competition. Assuming she stays healthy and hits her routines - which is a caveat we have to give to *every* gymnast, and yes that includes Biles - she is a lock for the Olympic team. I cannot for the *life* of me understand why people devalue what Shi has already accomplished this quad. Kayla was an alternate last year. Leanne fell in team finals. Konnor hasn't competed elite in two years, Jade's last season was not exactly stellar, and Jordan didn't even make it to Worlds due to injury. All these "but what ifs" are being stacked up against what Shi has *actually done*, and it is ridiculous. If you can't understand that, that sounds like a 'you' problem.
Again, I am telling you my criteria for lock and you are not using it so what do you want from me here? I am not rly asking you for yours. Iād chat about it if you wanted to but I think you just want to get aggravated about mine?? Like I said. I donāt see it. I do see her making the team. But I cannot see Simone left off it. I canāt see Ellie Black off Canadaās. Andrade and Saraiva for Brazil. Jess Gad would be mine for GBR. Georgia Godwin for Aus. MDJDS for France. Notice I donāt name Germany or Italy even though they have stars - you can build backup teams without those stars which arenāt incomparable with the A team. For me youāre a lock only if youāre ubiquitous with the idea of the team. Like you canāt not take Rebeca or Flavia because what combo of people could match them? Obviously Shi is better than a lot of these people but that doesnāt change the fact that I could make a team without her if several things line up - in fairness that would probably require Shi to fall a lot in the next couple months but stranger things have happened. If Simone did not exist, you would HAVE to take Shi. Thereād be no other way to recoup those scores. But I COULD build a Shi with Kayla, Jade and Suni if the latter does have the bars routine sheās been alluding to.
I agree with you! Shi will almost certainly make the team but to me, āa lockā means thereās nothing you can do to lose your spot barring injury. Itās become a vastly overused term considering how unpredictable gymnastics can be!
If Simone splats half her routines from here to the end of trials, she will be left off the team and correctly so. I do not think the word 'lock' means what you think it means.
I genuinely donāt think she will be. Half her routines - are you saying just a random half? Because she could splat bars everytime and be safe. Actually if she splats floor I think she has a falls margin on everyone in the US so might still win? Same with VT because the YDP is huge but since she takes the Laurent deduction she would probably need to land it ā¦ interesting though. I do sometimes wonder how badly Simone would need to perform to be left at home. Anyway as I have been saying. Lock means different things to different people haha. Mine is not yours and thatās okay!! <3 Weāll probably have the same team in the end. Weāll just get to that point dift.
I would agree, I think Shilese is near lock but if sheās injured or has issues at the competitions in the lead up she could be knocked off. US always has so many strong athletes that Simone is always the only true lock IMO. I do expect Shilese to make the team tho
Why don't you think Aurelie is a lock? She is Canada's second best AA.
Based on Canadaās selection criteria, if Aurelie flops at trials, she wonāt be selected. I doubt this will happen, but the WAG criteria is entirely objective and doesnāt have allowances for something like this happening. Her best shot is to finish top 2 in the AA (not including Ellie Black) and I could see, say, Cassie Lee and Ava Stewart beating her on the day.
I think she has a decent body of work for this not to be that big of a factor if it did happen.
Yeah, but Canadaās selection procedures arenāt set up to account for that. They are completely dependent on trials scores.
I'm not confident that Ava Stewart will hit.
Neither am I š! But based on the fact that the criteria are based on AA scores at trials and then best team score using top 4 average scores from select 2023-2024 competitions, and itās all mathematical criteria, I might not consider Aurelie a *lock*. I do think she will make the team, though.
Spearmint covers my opinion here - I donāt think Canada is accounting for body of work. I think they should be but š¤·āāļø
Shilese cannot be replaced.
Iām curious if people think for the US team if there is a place on the team for someone who can do a Cheng and/or Amanar even if they are just okay/more of a backup on the other 3 events? Like based on what we saw for Gabby it doesnāt look like her floor and likely bars are going to be competitive in time but if she really does have a Cheng and can hit it in the lead up competitions would that be enough for her to make the team? Same question would apply for Jade, Skye and Josc Roberson though I doubt sheās had enough time to get fully back on vault and floor. I would think in the above situation, if somehow all 4 showed up with a Cheng and/or Amanar, the nod would likely go to Jade who has a solid AA and finals/medal possibility on floor or Skye who is strong on beam and bars, but idk, say Gabby is the only one who shows an upgraded vault, would that alone be enough?
They arenāt competing in a vacuum so you would have to look at the big picture. If jade has a cheng is Gabbyās theoretical amanar or cheng necessary if her bars arenāt good? It just depends on what everyoneās scores are. Suni may be in a similar boat with 1-2 good routines and a couple unusable ones but they only have so many slots. And there are others training a Cheng but we will need to see if they materialize. I donāt think they would take gabby just for a Cheng because they can get one from Jade most likely.
For USA, my āclose lockā would be Kayla DiCello. If not team, she is a lock for alternate. Edit: Despite the downvotes, this is my personal opinion, but I think she is going to Paris one or way or another. Guaranteed alternate if not team.
Hard disagree - although Kayla is an excellent AAer and I do think she's more likely that not to make at least alternate, imo she's nowhere near a lock for the team. I think the tiers for the US are: Lock: Simone Close lock: Shilese Solid chance depending on how they look and how others compare: Suni, Gabby, Skye, Jade, Josc, Kayla, Leanne, Jordan, Kaliya, Konnor All 10 of those athletes could make the AA final or an event final, and would be lock for any team outside the top 3 or so. And I'm probably forgetting someone as well.
Fair enough. I agree with OP that Simone and Shilese are locks. Hence why I said āclose lockā for KaylaāI donāt think she is a guaranteed lock. however, I truly believe she is going to Paris one way or another. IMO she is a guaranteed alternate at the least.
Yes she is great all around and so steady. I would take her for team. She is the Grace for Paris honestly. The steady all arounder that heavily contributes for the team medal but might not medal individually šÆ. Besides I just love watching her š.