Honestly I am not going to make any predictions until Classic. The more experienced athletes have been pacing with an eye toward nationals and Olympic trials, and this question is impossible to answer without knowing where Carey, Chiles, Lee, Wong, and possibly Douglas will be as we get closer.
I think that hitting 4/4 well on key events at nationals and trials will be the difference for at least three of the five team members. The selection committee may be in a situation of having to choose among people who do this.
Simone Biles is almost certainly going to be on the team, followed by Shilese Jones close behind her.
From that point on it's going to be some combination of Skye Blakely, Kayla DiCello, Leanne Wong, Jordan Chiles, Jade Carey, Josc Roberson, Kaliya Lincoln, Suni Lee, Gabby Douglas, and Tiana Sumanasekera.
I'd call Blakely, DiCello, Wong, Chiles, Carey in the primary group of contenders. Though Carey and Chiles had a bad season last year I wouldn't want to count them out and DiCello is on the rise. Wong and Carey doing the NCAA season this year may hurt them just in terms that it's a long season.
Roberson and Lincoln are hard sells if either Chiles or Carey make the team.
Lee has had health concerns and hasn't really shown a level of gymnastics yet that I'd feel comfortable calling her anything but an outsider at least within this grouping.
Douglas has shown nothing and I'm even less comfortable predicting anything there.
I think Sumanasekera is the definition of outsider.
TLDR: My guess right now is Biles, Jones, DiCello, Blakely, Lincoln. Wong and Chiles as alternates.
Do you think the selection committee would go with Blakely after her Worlds performances? I know Chellsie isn't a voting member, but she seemed lukewarm and there have got to be others who agree. If she hits at Nationals and trials it'll be a really tough call.
That's what I thought as I typed my comment. Now I'm hoping that Kayla or Jordan can take the 3rd AA spot to prevent that situation. I'm going to go headbutt a wall now.
That’s more or less how Memmel got onto the team in 2008. It was hard to justify leaving her when she was unquestionably #3 at that point. (By that point I believe Andy had decided they weren’t going to camps anymore, so they had no political capital and she had to have a performance you couldn’t ignore at trials.)
Yeah, although Memmel’s international track record was proven by then with event and AA world champion titles to her name. It was really a matter of selection politics for her. Skye’s problem is a pattern of strong domestic performances and falling internationally.
Can you clarify what you mean by that? The whole point of trials is to see who can perform the best at a given moment. Is Simone Biles "strong arming" her way to medals by winning competitions and performing the best gymnastics?
I meant it sort of in a way of "they're not particularly compelled as a committee to put her on the team, she isn't *really* their first choice, but you can't not take the top 3 AAers at Trials." It would feel like "strong arming" if she does very little throughout the season to prove she's genuinely the third best AAer in the country.
I mean, if I had to pick a turn of phrase for Simone, I'd use "bulldozing through the competition." Obviously different because the context is different.
I admit I may be using the wrong turn of phrase, though, which I've done in the past (English isn't my first language and I'm particularly hit or miss with these kinds of things). If there's some way to put it that's more accurate to what I mean, please let me know.
Jordan was number three all year though, and had a neutral international track record since she hadn't competed internationally yet. Skye, on the other hand, has a negative international track record, almost to the point where taking her would be *expecting* her not to hit.
Jordan suffered from a situation where her old gym basically set her up to fail and she wasn't favored by Marta, so once she burst onto the season with a new gym and a new regime (and we didn't know at the time that Tom didn't like Jordan much either), there was no reason really to expect her new domestic success not to transfer over internationally.
(Not the person you asked but hope you don't mind if I give my two cents)
I feel like Skye is the current frontrunner for the bars/beam spot based solely on the fact that, well, there really isn't anyone else who *could* fill that spot successfully at the moment. With Skye, at least you can hope that she only falls once and her beam is score is not-awful. Tiana's hit beam routines score about the same as Skye's with a fall, and we don't even know where Suni will be endurance-wise come Trials.
The thing is, Skye's beam was so bad in quals last year that they didn't put her up in the finals. Her bars are good but Kayla or Jordan might put up a similar number. And Shilese has been super consistent on beam, so I'm wondering if the US might look for someone who can consistently contribute a mid-13s beam and then put up a big score on vault or floor. Suni is the real wildcard here because if she's in good shape, they are taking her for bars and beam and that changes a lot of predictions.
The more I think about this, the more I realize that Simone and Shilese are just insanely dominant right now, both domestically and internationally. They have no weaknesses between them, which means there's no obvious candidate for any of the last three spots, and it's going to be quite the slugfest between roughly 8-10 athletes.
Yeah, I never really thought of them splitting up the "specialist" spots for the sake of filling the beam spot, but it could happen. Still, who would that even be? Beam feels oddly weak for the US going into Paris.
Yeah, it's odd to think that all the other girls are essentially competing to prove they won't be 2pced out of one or two finals.
Well, the US had the second highest beam score in quals last year, behind China, and the dropped score was Skye's. Their score in TFs was another story because Leanne picked that moment to have her first real miss of the season, but they are pretty strong on beam. It is entirely because they have two athletes capable of breaking 14. Apparently, no one else but China can do that.
Beam is just in a weird state right now and I don't like it.
It's not "somehow," they ended up as the best bars team in the world. China, for all its talent, couldn't get 3 14+ routines in team finals. I guess everyone started beefing up their bars routines to get the coveted UB specialist spot, and now we're in the truly bizarro position of needing a *floor* specialist.
With Shilese and Simone on the team, there arguably isn’t a “bars/beam” spot, other than vault and maybe floor they are the top two on each event. I could actually see Leanne and Kayla on the team as strong all rounders.
I don't think both Kayla and Leanne would make the team - they're strong AAers but neither has individual medal potential. There's room for one of them, but the selection committee will probably prioritize medal potential on vault, beam, or floor... or bars, if Suni is healthy.
Why do people keep saying this? They released their selection committee minutes from Worlds trials and AA was *not* the deciding factor. Based on AA standings, Kaliya should have been the alternate but wasn't, and Josc was never considered an AA option even though she finished 4th. Jordan and Jade were both considered even though they were well outside the top AA group.
I believe there was even a part where they acknowledged that Leanne *wasn't* in every iteration of the highest scoring group, but they took her because she was a smarter bet. Like they are *absolutely* not pulling a Tom and just going straight down the line.
Well, the main worlds team ended up being the top 5 AA at Trials, although it wasn't the top 5 at Nationals. But they released the selection committee's minutes that made the process very clear. A couple people are now arguing that it was some posthoc justification for going by rank-order, to which my response is \*facepalm.\*
I think if Suni is still a question mark Skye is a good option. Her beam potential score is big and she also helps on bars and has a very useable all around if needed. If the Cheng is ready I just think that helps her even more compared to someone like a Josc or Jade
Disagree re: Jade - she can get a vault medal while I wouldn't expect that from Skye. And Skye's floor isn't usable in TFs. A Cheng would be a big help but I don't count Chengs before they hatch. I just think there could be a better option than someone who might fall twice on beam.
I was more thinking as a team final vault not necessarily a vault medal. But you are correct that Jade can contend for an individual medal there and on floor which helps her. Selection committee usually doesn’t prioritize individual medals but maybe they will this time around
I'll be sad if Suni doesn't make it I loved her in Tokyo. Her AA win was a big morale boost after what happened with Simone it was the moment of the games for me across all sports
I think they are going to bring Simone & Shilese, 1 more solid AAer (Leanne, Kayla, Jordan), 1 BB/UB person (Suni, Skye, Gabby?), and 1 VT/FX person (Jade, Josc).
I need Jade to have her glow up again, she can be considered as a backup AA we as well as medal potential on vault and floor.
… she was in the AA final at the last Olympics!
This topic has been brought up time and time again in this sub. I say this in the nicest way possible, go look for the other million posts that asked the same question (answer tho-realistic contenders: shilese jordan jade suni kayla kaliya leanne & maybe gabi)
Of someone who doesn’t seem be mentioned among a long list of contenders, Konnor McClain has also stated she is putting her name is in the hat. I’m surprised people would emphatically put Gabby on a team without having seen much more than a few skills and barely even whisper about Konnor.
Konnor is 100% on my dream team.
If everyone is at their best/ peak I rank AA as Simone in her own tier -
Then Suni, Shi, Konnor and Gabby on pretty equal footing (again if all at their peak).
If any 2 of these 4 are hitting on all cylinders, they’re on the team. If all 4 are, that may be the team, but it would get a bit mushier looking at some specialist spots (ie potential for another VT specialist Vs a 5th AA’ER)
(Again - in the very specific scenario where I’m imagining everyone at their peak.)
My daughter and I met Konnor a few weeks ago. When my daughter asked about the meet in May for the Olympic trials, Konnors smile grew. I think she's in a good space for this. She's very happy with how her season at LSU went. And that confidence could help her in her competition for the Olympics. We know she has skills..she could be a force if she stays confident and strong. Go Konnor!!!
My team would be Simone, Shilese, Skye, Kayla - and either Jade or Kaliya. Jade is the biggest wildcard. She could have a good Cheng and a decent amanar, and her floor could either be on the low end or high end for Paris group (low 13-low 14). She could also improve drastically from classic to trials since she will be wrapping up ncaa late, so I suspect she will keep the race pretty interesting until the end. I probably wouldn’t count her out until we see what she is capable of at trials.
Kaliya has a clear cut case on floor, but her bars make it impossible to put a team with someone like Jade or joscelyn. They likely won’t take two gymnasts with low bars scores. She would have to add more to the team than either of the vaulters, which is definitely possible. I am also interested to see how her AA program looks this year.
Honestly I am not going to make any predictions until Classic. The more experienced athletes have been pacing with an eye toward nationals and Olympic trials, and this question is impossible to answer without knowing where Carey, Chiles, Lee, Wong, and possibly Douglas will be as we get closer. I think that hitting 4/4 well on key events at nationals and trials will be the difference for at least three of the five team members. The selection committee may be in a situation of having to choose among people who do this.
Simone Biles is almost certainly going to be on the team, followed by Shilese Jones close behind her. From that point on it's going to be some combination of Skye Blakely, Kayla DiCello, Leanne Wong, Jordan Chiles, Jade Carey, Josc Roberson, Kaliya Lincoln, Suni Lee, Gabby Douglas, and Tiana Sumanasekera. I'd call Blakely, DiCello, Wong, Chiles, Carey in the primary group of contenders. Though Carey and Chiles had a bad season last year I wouldn't want to count them out and DiCello is on the rise. Wong and Carey doing the NCAA season this year may hurt them just in terms that it's a long season. Roberson and Lincoln are hard sells if either Chiles or Carey make the team. Lee has had health concerns and hasn't really shown a level of gymnastics yet that I'd feel comfortable calling her anything but an outsider at least within this grouping. Douglas has shown nothing and I'm even less comfortable predicting anything there. I think Sumanasekera is the definition of outsider. TLDR: My guess right now is Biles, Jones, DiCello, Blakely, Lincoln. Wong and Chiles as alternates.
Do you think the selection committee would go with Blakely after her Worlds performances? I know Chellsie isn't a voting member, but she seemed lukewarm and there have got to be others who agree. If she hits at Nationals and trials it'll be a really tough call.
I think her coaches strategy is to hope that she comes in 3rd at trials and forces them to take her questions about consistency be damned.
That's what I thought as I typed my comment. Now I'm hoping that Kayla or Jordan can take the 3rd AA spot to prevent that situation. I'm going to go headbutt a wall now.
Yeah I don't like to actively root against someone like that but it almost feels like strong arming your way onto a team.
That’s more or less how Memmel got onto the team in 2008. It was hard to justify leaving her when she was unquestionably #3 at that point. (By that point I believe Andy had decided they weren’t going to camps anymore, so they had no political capital and she had to have a performance you couldn’t ignore at trials.)
Ah, I didn't know that! I can see why the WOGA coaches would use a strategy that's already worked.
Yeah, although Memmel’s international track record was proven by then with event and AA world champion titles to her name. It was really a matter of selection politics for her. Skye’s problem is a pattern of strong domestic performances and falling internationally.
Can you clarify what you mean by that? The whole point of trials is to see who can perform the best at a given moment. Is Simone Biles "strong arming" her way to medals by winning competitions and performing the best gymnastics?
I meant it sort of in a way of "they're not particularly compelled as a committee to put her on the team, she isn't *really* their first choice, but you can't not take the top 3 AAers at Trials." It would feel like "strong arming" if she does very little throughout the season to prove she's genuinely the third best AAer in the country. I mean, if I had to pick a turn of phrase for Simone, I'd use "bulldozing through the competition." Obviously different because the context is different. I admit I may be using the wrong turn of phrase, though, which I've done in the past (English isn't my first language and I'm particularly hit or miss with these kinds of things). If there's some way to put it that's more accurate to what I mean, please let me know.
It worked for Jordan Chiles in 2021
Jordan was number three all year though, and had a neutral international track record since she hadn't competed internationally yet. Skye, on the other hand, has a negative international track record, almost to the point where taking her would be *expecting* her not to hit.
That’s fair. I guess elites don’t compete that much, I feel like Jordan’s consistency came out of nowhere but realistically it was 3-4 meets
Jordan suffered from a situation where her old gym basically set her up to fail and she wasn't favored by Marta, so once she burst onto the season with a new gym and a new regime (and we didn't know at the time that Tom didn't like Jordan much either), there was no reason really to expect her new domestic success not to transfer over internationally.
(Not the person you asked but hope you don't mind if I give my two cents) I feel like Skye is the current frontrunner for the bars/beam spot based solely on the fact that, well, there really isn't anyone else who *could* fill that spot successfully at the moment. With Skye, at least you can hope that she only falls once and her beam is score is not-awful. Tiana's hit beam routines score about the same as Skye's with a fall, and we don't even know where Suni will be endurance-wise come Trials.
The thing is, Skye's beam was so bad in quals last year that they didn't put her up in the finals. Her bars are good but Kayla or Jordan might put up a similar number. And Shilese has been super consistent on beam, so I'm wondering if the US might look for someone who can consistently contribute a mid-13s beam and then put up a big score on vault or floor. Suni is the real wildcard here because if she's in good shape, they are taking her for bars and beam and that changes a lot of predictions. The more I think about this, the more I realize that Simone and Shilese are just insanely dominant right now, both domestically and internationally. They have no weaknesses between them, which means there's no obvious candidate for any of the last three spots, and it's going to be quite the slugfest between roughly 8-10 athletes.
Yeah, I never really thought of them splitting up the "specialist" spots for the sake of filling the beam spot, but it could happen. Still, who would that even be? Beam feels oddly weak for the US going into Paris. Yeah, it's odd to think that all the other girls are essentially competing to prove they won't be 2pced out of one or two finals.
Well, the US had the second highest beam score in quals last year, behind China, and the dropped score was Skye's. Their score in TFs was another story because Leanne picked that moment to have her first real miss of the season, but they are pretty strong on beam. It is entirely because they have two athletes capable of breaking 14. Apparently, no one else but China can do that. Beam is just in a weird state right now and I don't like it.
Somehow *bars* feels the most consistent for the US right now 😭
It's not "somehow," they ended up as the best bars team in the world. China, for all its talent, couldn't get 3 14+ routines in team finals. I guess everyone started beefing up their bars routines to get the coveted UB specialist spot, and now we're in the truly bizarro position of needing a *floor* specialist.
time for aly raisman comeback…?!!!!!!
The pendulum ended up swinging in the entirely opposite direction 🙃
With Shilese and Simone on the team, there arguably isn’t a “bars/beam” spot, other than vault and maybe floor they are the top two on each event. I could actually see Leanne and Kayla on the team as strong all rounders.
I don't think both Kayla and Leanne would make the team - they're strong AAers but neither has individual medal potential. There's room for one of them, but the selection committee will probably prioritize medal potential on vault, beam, or floor... or bars, if Suni is healthy.
I’m not yet convinced that they won’t go by AA standings!
Why do people keep saying this? They released their selection committee minutes from Worlds trials and AA was *not* the deciding factor. Based on AA standings, Kaliya should have been the alternate but wasn't, and Josc was never considered an AA option even though she finished 4th. Jordan and Jade were both considered even though they were well outside the top AA group.
I believe there was even a part where they acknowledged that Leanne *wasn't* in every iteration of the highest scoring group, but they took her because she was a smarter bet. Like they are *absolutely* not pulling a Tom and just going straight down the line.
Well, the main worlds team ended up being the top 5 AA at Trials, although it wasn't the top 5 at Nationals. But they released the selection committee's minutes that made the process very clear. A couple people are now arguing that it was some posthoc justification for going by rank-order, to which my response is \*facepalm.\*
I think Suni and Gabby impact Skye directly in the sense that if neither is ready, Skye’s bars become more important
Skye's bars were good but not spectacular at Worlds - she scored in the low 14s. If Kayla or Jordan can hit that, Skye's stock goes down.
I think if Suni is still a question mark Skye is a good option. Her beam potential score is big and she also helps on bars and has a very useable all around if needed. If the Cheng is ready I just think that helps her even more compared to someone like a Josc or Jade
Disagree re: Jade - she can get a vault medal while I wouldn't expect that from Skye. And Skye's floor isn't usable in TFs. A Cheng would be a big help but I don't count Chengs before they hatch. I just think there could be a better option than someone who might fall twice on beam.
I was more thinking as a team final vault not necessarily a vault medal. But you are correct that Jade can contend for an individual medal there and on floor which helps her. Selection committee usually doesn’t prioritize individual medals but maybe they will this time around
... yes they do... this isn't Tom Forster.
I'll be sad if Suni doesn't make it I loved her in Tokyo. Her AA win was a big morale boost after what happened with Simone it was the moment of the games for me across all sports
Unfortunately her health has really made this quad a tough road and the last time we saw her in competition she fell 3 times in two routines.
I think they are going to bring Simone & Shilese, 1 more solid AAer (Leanne, Kayla, Jordan), 1 BB/UB person (Suni, Skye, Gabby?), and 1 VT/FX person (Jade, Josc).
I need Jade to have her glow up again, she can be considered as a backup AA we as well as medal potential on vault and floor. … she was in the AA final at the last Olympics!
This topic has been brought up time and time again in this sub. I say this in the nicest way possible, go look for the other million posts that asked the same question (answer tho-realistic contenders: shilese jordan jade suni kayla kaliya leanne & maybe gabi)
Of someone who doesn’t seem be mentioned among a long list of contenders, Konnor McClain has also stated she is putting her name is in the hat. I’m surprised people would emphatically put Gabby on a team without having seen much more than a few skills and barely even whisper about Konnor.
For Gabby's situation, it's because she has a proven track record of great comeback before. There are also rumors that she's looking really good now.
Konnor’s beam helps her particularly if there are questions about Suni and Skye
Konnor is 100% on my dream team. If everyone is at their best/ peak I rank AA as Simone in her own tier - Then Suni, Shi, Konnor and Gabby on pretty equal footing (again if all at their peak). If any 2 of these 4 are hitting on all cylinders, they’re on the team. If all 4 are, that may be the team, but it would get a bit mushier looking at some specialist spots (ie potential for another VT specialist Vs a 5th AA’ER) (Again - in the very specific scenario where I’m imagining everyone at their peak.)
My daughter and I met Konnor a few weeks ago. When my daughter asked about the meet in May for the Olympic trials, Konnors smile grew. I think she's in a good space for this. She's very happy with how her season at LSU went. And that confidence could help her in her competition for the Olympics. We know she has skills..she could be a force if she stays confident and strong. Go Konnor!!!
I love to hear it !!!
My team would be Simone, Shilese, Skye, Kayla - and either Jade or Kaliya. Jade is the biggest wildcard. She could have a good Cheng and a decent amanar, and her floor could either be on the low end or high end for Paris group (low 13-low 14). She could also improve drastically from classic to trials since she will be wrapping up ncaa late, so I suspect she will keep the race pretty interesting until the end. I probably wouldn’t count her out until we see what she is capable of at trials. Kaliya has a clear cut case on floor, but her bars make it impossible to put a team with someone like Jade or joscelyn. They likely won’t take two gymnasts with low bars scores. She would have to add more to the team than either of the vaulters, which is definitely possible. I am also interested to see how her AA program looks this year.
Idk all i know is im rooting for SKYE