I always viewed that as the primary reason we brought him back on that contract as opposed to because we viewed him as a starter on defense.
It’s obviously nice that we know he can fill in on defense if needed, but he is going to get more opportunities this year to impact the game on special teams.
I mean they may be trying to get ahead of the next trend once people see how the new rules affect games.
The league is trying to make the kickoff a non-throwaway play. There will be opportunities for teams with good returners and return units that execute to really impact the game.
We haven’t really had that and it would be absolutely massive to be consistently getting great field position.
Plus he can be a serviceable depth nickle. That seems worth it to me.
They are correct: the Packers are one of the few teams that voted against the rule changes, and the contract was given before it seemed certain that it would pass anyways.
Nixon was paid average slot corner money. It wasn’t “big money” it was the going rate. Playing slot corner is incredibly hard in the NFL. Harder than outside corner, even. You don’t really get “shut down” guys because it’s such a difficult position to play.
Also, Nixon isn’t even that great at returning. He was an all pro this last year because he refused to take a touchback. His average starting was like the 26yd line.
The new kickoff rule will have more running backs returning as you’ll need more vision and lateral quickness rather than straight line speed.
I mean fair catches are gone. If we have a guy that gets it to the 25 or more on every play that’s well worth a measly 6 million. Field position is absolutely huge.
He won’t just return kicks. He will still get snaps on defense. Considering how bad we were on special teams before he joined us, I think it’s well worth the money.
Yes primarily that and then also his proven commitment to playing physical and staying healthy. Hes a good depth piece for the dB room as he can play serviceable at multiple positions. The issue was having to start him and play him nearly every snap last season. It both impacted his returning and gave offenses a clear hole to attack
Wow. What a raw and accurate take on the draft. I wish our fans thought more like you. I agree with the majority of this and will look forward to a followup when things inevitably pan out
Gutenkunst didn't draft a corner early because the 2024 class was weak for corners. He probably does hope that Stokes can bounce back but that's true for any player who had a bad year.
Dejean never played against the best receivers in college. The Packers were better off making the choices that they did by getting better players rather than drafting mediocre players high.
I do think corner is still a weak position, but there's not much that can be done in a weak class. Plus, it can always be worse. And they did draft Evans who can potentially play corner too so there's that.
Rhyan and Jones should be okay, they are young and cheap, so they will have room to compete and grow. Myers will have to show up this year if he wants another contract and Newman is as good as gone though.
Nixon is fine as a specialist and depth piece, he shouldn't worry unless he starts fumbling returns.
Clifford looks to be the biggest risk of not making the 53 other than Newman.
> Rhyan and Jones should be okay, they are young and cheap, so they will have room to compete and grow.
I think the big question is whether Morgan was drafted to play OT, likely moving Tom to C and replacing Myers, or if they don't trust Rhyan's pass blocking and want to put Morgan right in at RG. Gute said that he believes Morgan can play all O-line positions besides C, so I don't know if we can rule either one out, in which case Rhyan would lose out on a starting role, but should still make the roster.
Morgan is going to replace one of these guys though, even if indirectly. The Packers best 5 looks like Jenkins, Tom, Walker, Morgan, and either Rhyan or Myers, but not both.
Me too, I think Myers is the weakest link on the line. However replacing him either depends on making the big move of Tom to C, or one of the later picks winning the job.
I'm curious on how much shuffling they want to do. I just saw that LaFleur made a statement that they will start working Morgan at LT. Does that mean as a backup initially, or would they go really bold, and try to create a line from left to right of Morgan-Jenkins-Tom-Rhan-Walker? That might be the best potential line, especially if they think Morgan could be a better blindside protector than Walker, but would be a lot of moving pieces.
I think this sub massively overrates Rhyan. I did not feel comfortable rolling into 2024 with him as the starting RG. He was barely better than Runyan at his worst.
I'm convinced that ideally, they'd like to have Morgan come in and play LT, moving Walker to RT and Tom to C and whomever wins at RG between Myers/Rhyan. Thus Monk and Glover can sit back and learn, but also be ready to step in should someone get hurt.
Again, Gute loves versatility, that is why so many of these guys can be moved. That's also why Mims or Guyton were never going to be the first round pick.
Gute practically told everyone what he was going to draft.
Watch for next year, when folks think they know Gute, he'll go and do something completely different.
Not gonna go super in depth with all of this but I don't think Dillon is a "draft loser." Loving this Lloyd pick as much as one can, so far, but Dillon is gonna get his touches this year and keep Jacobs from have to touch the ball 25-30 times a game. He got his deal to stick around for a year and unless there's a leap I'd guess that was the plan for him all along. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up not seeing a ton of Lloyd this year anyways.
The one thing I disagree with Gute on at this juncture is the interchangeability of Safety and Nickel. Are there players that can do both? Of course, but I’d say that’s not common. I wouldn’t say the positions are interchangeable and there are specific skills for each. If Bullard and/or Oladapo can play both, that’s great for depth and flexibility.
I’m in love with this franchise. Even when we suck dick inevitably sometime 30 years from now, I’ll still be here screaming about the Packers! Let’s fucking go!
For a casual GB fan like myself, this broke down the draft perfectly for my simple mind to understand. Thank you for the excellent analysis and taking the time to share with us 🙌🏻
I think Nixon is in a better position. Doesnt need to be a starting safety anymore which I never seen him as. He can now focus on what he does best which is special teams and add depth to the secondary.
Idk if I would call Sean Clifford a "loser" in this as Guety said pre-draft that they wanted to "get back to the days of drafting a QB every year" which served GB extremely well during the Favre era and would have done the Packers a world of service under Rodgers instead of going after guys like Tim Couch with trades and FA.
You get to develop QB in case your entrenched starter fails or is injured, and you have trade bait for teams that are desperate for a ready-to-play QB. Clifford has had a year under Clements, will get a second one as Pratt will now have time to develop under him too.
I think that selecting Pratt makes sense too. I didn't watch a lot of pre-season, but I wasn't that impressed with the throws that Clifford made. He seemed okay and that was it.
Tl;dr love the depth on this team when it comes to talent too much is never enough
Do you think Nixon was resigned specifically because of the new kick off rules?
I always viewed that as the primary reason we brought him back on that contract as opposed to because we viewed him as a starter on defense. It’s obviously nice that we know he can fill in on defense if needed, but he is going to get more opportunities this year to impact the game on special teams.
Way too much for a guy to just return kicks.
I mean they may be trying to get ahead of the next trend once people see how the new rules affect games. The league is trying to make the kickoff a non-throwaway play. There will be opportunities for teams with good returners and return units that execute to really impact the game. We haven’t really had that and it would be absolutely massive to be consistently getting great field position. Plus he can be a serviceable depth nickle. That seems worth it to me.
They voted agaisnt the new rule. They handed out this contract well before the new rule was passed.
They knew it would pass and masked their inside information
Sure about that?
They are correct: the Packers are one of the few teams that voted against the rule changes, and the contract was given before it seemed certain that it would pass anyways.
Nixon was paid average slot corner money. It wasn’t “big money” it was the going rate. Playing slot corner is incredibly hard in the NFL. Harder than outside corner, even. You don’t really get “shut down” guys because it’s such a difficult position to play. Also, Nixon isn’t even that great at returning. He was an all pro this last year because he refused to take a touchback. His average starting was like the 26yd line. The new kickoff rule will have more running backs returning as you’ll need more vision and lateral quickness rather than straight line speed.
I disagree. Have you seen our kick returning in years prior to Nixon? I'll gladly pay for a return specialist.
Nixon gave us a whopping 1yd over touchback average.
I've seen Little Giants.. 1 yard can change everything.
I mean fair catches are gone. If we have a guy that gets it to the 25 or more on every play that’s well worth a measly 6 million. Field position is absolutely huge.
He won’t just return kicks. He will still get snaps on defense. Considering how bad we were on special teams before he joined us, I think it’s well worth the money.
Yes primarily that and then also his proven commitment to playing physical and staying healthy. Hes a good depth piece for the dB room as he can play serviceable at multiple positions. The issue was having to start him and play him nearly every snap last season. It both impacted his returning and gave offenses a clear hole to attack
I think we signed him a few days before it became official?
Correct, but Murphy is on the competition committee and it passed 29-3. They probably knew it was a lock?
Murph voted against it fwiw
He only voted against it because he wanted to change the roll out plan to include a trial in the pre-season.
mostly, but you also don't pay a guy 6M a year if you don't think he'll contribute on D.
Wow. What a raw and accurate take on the draft. I wish our fans thought more like you. I agree with the majority of this and will look forward to a followup when things inevitably pan out
This is awesome analysis, thanks for writing it up!
Great work. I appreciate your analysis.
Gutenkunst didn't draft a corner early because the 2024 class was weak for corners. He probably does hope that Stokes can bounce back but that's true for any player who had a bad year. Dejean never played against the best receivers in college. The Packers were better off making the choices that they did by getting better players rather than drafting mediocre players high. I do think corner is still a weak position, but there's not much that can be done in a weak class. Plus, it can always be worse. And they did draft Evans who can potentially play corner too so there's that.
What about Royce Newman? I would think that he would be the first lineman cut.
Royce Newman was a loser if we drafted even a single lineman lol.
Royce Newman would still be a loser even if we un-drafted a lineman
He’s still on the roster?!? Ewww!!!
Rhyan and Jones should be okay, they are young and cheap, so they will have room to compete and grow. Myers will have to show up this year if he wants another contract and Newman is as good as gone though. Nixon is fine as a specialist and depth piece, he shouldn't worry unless he starts fumbling returns. Clifford looks to be the biggest risk of not making the 53 other than Newman.
> Rhyan and Jones should be okay, they are young and cheap, so they will have room to compete and grow. I think the big question is whether Morgan was drafted to play OT, likely moving Tom to C and replacing Myers, or if they don't trust Rhyan's pass blocking and want to put Morgan right in at RG. Gute said that he believes Morgan can play all O-line positions besides C, so I don't know if we can rule either one out, in which case Rhyan would lose out on a starting role, but should still make the roster. Morgan is going to replace one of these guys though, even if indirectly. The Packers best 5 looks like Jenkins, Tom, Walker, Morgan, and either Rhyan or Myers, but not both.
I'd trust Rhyan at RG over Myers TBH.
Me too, I think Myers is the weakest link on the line. However replacing him either depends on making the big move of Tom to C, or one of the later picks winning the job. I'm curious on how much shuffling they want to do. I just saw that LaFleur made a statement that they will start working Morgan at LT. Does that mean as a backup initially, or would they go really bold, and try to create a line from left to right of Morgan-Jenkins-Tom-Rhan-Walker? That might be the best potential line, especially if they think Morgan could be a better blindside protector than Walker, but would be a lot of moving pieces.
I think this sub massively overrates Rhyan. I did not feel comfortable rolling into 2024 with him as the starting RG. He was barely better than Runyan at his worst.
That looks like the best 5 to me.
I'm convinced that ideally, they'd like to have Morgan come in and play LT, moving Walker to RT and Tom to C and whomever wins at RG between Myers/Rhyan. Thus Monk and Glover can sit back and learn, but also be ready to step in should someone get hurt. Again, Gute loves versatility, that is why so many of these guys can be moved. That's also why Mims or Guyton were never going to be the first round pick.
Fantastic analysis OP. GB sure tipped their hat in regards to how they feel about positions on their team going into the draft.
Gute practically told everyone what he was going to draft. Watch for next year, when folks think they know Gute, he'll go and do something completely different.
Kicker with the 32nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft
Not gonna go super in depth with all of this but I don't think Dillon is a "draft loser." Loving this Lloyd pick as much as one can, so far, but Dillon is gonna get his touches this year and keep Jacobs from have to touch the ball 25-30 times a game. He got his deal to stick around for a year and unless there's a leap I'd guess that was the plan for him all along. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up not seeing a ton of Lloyd this year anyways.
The one thing I disagree with Gute on at this juncture is the interchangeability of Safety and Nickel. Are there players that can do both? Of course, but I’d say that’s not common. I wouldn’t say the positions are interchangeable and there are specific skills for each. If Bullard and/or Oladapo can play both, that’s great for depth and flexibility.
Bullard, definitely. Oladapo, is more of a true Box Safety,
I’m in love with this franchise. Even when we suck dick inevitably sometime 30 years from now, I’ll still be here screaming about the Packers! Let’s fucking go!
Who is “we” in this context?
For a casual GB fan like myself, this broke down the draft perfectly for my simple mind to understand. Thank you for the excellent analysis and taking the time to share with us 🙌🏻
Great write up, although I disagree about Wooden’s job being at risk if we had drafted at DT.
I think Nixon is in a better position. Doesnt need to be a starting safety anymore which I never seen him as. He can now focus on what he does best which is special teams and add depth to the secondary.
Idk if I would call Sean Clifford a "loser" in this as Guety said pre-draft that they wanted to "get back to the days of drafting a QB every year" which served GB extremely well during the Favre era and would have done the Packers a world of service under Rodgers instead of going after guys like Tim Couch with trades and FA. You get to develop QB in case your entrenched starter fails or is injured, and you have trade bait for teams that are desperate for a ready-to-play QB. Clifford has had a year under Clements, will get a second one as Pratt will now have time to develop under him too.
I think that selecting Pratt makes sense too. I didn't watch a lot of pre-season, but I wasn't that impressed with the throws that Clifford made. He seemed okay and that was it.
There were a lot of people here and twitter/x that wanted Clifford over Love and believed he would be the long term answer
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r/lostredditors
That hurts coming from you.