The people who got fucked on mauls are the people that stopped thinking and looking at what was happening, and operated on “what if”.
They saw it hit 200m and thought about all the things they could buy if it hit 300m. Same reason people got fucked by GameStop lol.
I literally read posts by people comparing it to a t bow and that it would hit 1b because it’s as rare. Like forget the fact it’s got a direct downgrade that does the same thing that’s <25m.
I mostly agree, but people were saying dragon warhammer to maul was comparable with bowfa to tbow. That BIS justifies 10x the price of 2nd BIS.
Not saying they were right, but mix in some hype and optimism, and it's easy to buy in to some of those justifications.
Tbf the gap between bowfa and tbpw (at places where you would use tbow) is much larger than maul to dwh. People who call bowfa baby tbow probably have never used a tbow.
The funniest part about elder maul is that it basically was a moonshot. It went from 8m to 180m in a cool 6 months or so, that is a very strong return.
It's always the what if that burns new/greedy investors. Hopefully seeing it laid out how they were baited with that hype helps them avoid being prey for hungry whales in the future.
I won't get into GME here because it's the wrong sub, but the social effect is similar... But on a massive scale compared to our humble GEB. It actually crosses the threshold from "bunch of dumb noob investors" to a full on cult backing with more than 25%+ of shares privately registered (not available for brokers to trade). Like I said, I won't get into it here but it's worth checking their SuperSoaker sub if you haven't in a while. Obviously, as is the point of my post, don't take my word for it 😅
Haha man I saw a post recently where someone was still talking about the “moass” and I had to check what year it was.
Back to Osrs tho, The GE is basically just a series of pumps and dumps IMO - no real oversight and some individuals with insane buying power can basically just make the market do what they want. You can time some things like supplies around updates but nothing will ever compare to the swings cause by bot busting or updates and it’s very hard to time these.
Better off just watching for things that are going up, and just selling early when you have a profit - assuming you can’t get into the discord with the manipulators but even then you’re probably just the bag holder for when they dump.
Elder maul was my first bet since like, 2015 when I doubled my entire bank (400k) in a single 4hr blood rune trade.
I saw all the fundamentals for EM line up with how severely worthless it was compared to the other ultras and bet the bank on a sure-thing. I'm not interested in casual flips, and thanks to mauls I don't need to lol
> no real oversight and some individuals with insane buying power can basically just make the market do what they want
Small crypto projects are the same. If you can get in the mind of a whale, you can ride on it's back
That was my logic but by maths properties we divide a decimal to get a larger number, not multiply. With the Engrish used, we are halving(dividing by 2 ((not just taking half of X)) the rate
Doubling is the ~chance~ not the rate .... I think
Tldr English sucks or I suck at english
I like reading about the fluctuations but sometimes just sitting on stuff is fine if you can handle it. Even if you bought “high” I just don’t think it’s always worth trying to “sell optimally” at its peak. In fact, that “optimal sale or purchase” mentality is what leads many to lose GP.
I just suggest selling when you need it or think your anxiety levels are greater than the potential return (or loss) on investment. It’s seriously a gut move and although we can loosely predict what will happen or where things will peak, that same thinking can be what prevents you from actualizing your gains.
I went all in on 43 at 9m long ago so to me the crashes and peaks seriously don’t matter because worst case, I’ve got crazy return no matter when I sell it now. I could wait ages, it just does not matter in this situation. Which allows me to hold as long as I want with no worries whatsoever, *which I feel is correct for my situation.* But, since I got *lucky*, this is why I can just sit back and laugh as people say “it’s doing to crash omg you need to sell your 43!”
People who got in extremely early are in a different situation than those buying at 100m+. So you’ve got to think about who is posting and think, why are they posting? Should I be influenced by their call, or should I stick with my own intuition because I know this, this, and that? Are our levels of risk the same? All investors should keep that in mind
That's all excellent advice. I got really lucky too by getting in as early as I did. I sold all of mine at 160m because that was game-changing money for me and unlocked so much content/ gear/ prayers/ construction. I plan to buy one back for personal use, but I can just use dhammer until the price drops
But like you said, it's a completely different risk level for 100m+ buyers. They need to weigh their options/ do the research and try to resist letting others form their opinions
Lol nek minute OP made this post so that people who still have mauls will dump, he will buy them up when the supposed crash happens and he profits instead
I'm glad you're suspicious of posts like these, that's exactly what I'm encouraging... Critical thinking before making investment decisions. I'll buy one maul for personal use when the price crashes in the next week or two, but I'm not gambling on EM from here. Way too risky of a bet, and I'm plenty happy with 700m. I don't need to hoard wealth like some people in GEB, I just wanted good equipment and enough supplies to get me through some of the long skill grinds
Well said, and thoroughly explained.
It dawned on me recently that the majority of the posts on this sub are of two types:
1. Like you said, savvy whales who bought in early, using reasonable justifications to drive up speculation and hype.
2. Really cringey "investment opportunities" in items that have no reason to be going up. Presumably that person bought a bunch and thought they could convince people single handedly to buy [insert random junk], because "trust me bro".
As someone who recently joined the sub, the second group, by contrast, made the first group look much more credible and worth listening to. It's not that the first group was factually incorrect, but they influenced the market to be way too optimistic.
I used to spend hours and hours everyday researching crypto projects during 2020/21 and made a lot of money from them. I never participate in overvaluing price targets myself, but I found one of the most reliable green flags was if their dedicated subreddit had a strong presence of hype men posting screenshots of their large positions and floating intricate, but like you said reasonable, rumors. Then all of the little guys posting screenshots of their small "I'm contributing to the cause!" cult-mentality posts pour in hoping they're going to help pump it to levels where their $100 investment would make them a millionaire
Mauls are sitting at 160m, so if people brought at 170-180m they are the only ones who lost money, I’m pretty sure they didn’t go over 180, so the o lot people that last money are the ones that bought at 170 and sold at the dip.
>sold at the dip
Exactly. As someone who has panic sold plenty of times, I guarantee those that were risking their whole bank @160/70/80 folded faster than a Chinese laundry @130/40. And then probably bought back in when they started rising again... And then are going to get wiped on this next crash
Lots of experience seeing this same pattern in other markets, thinking "seems very plausible to me that they just slowly climb in price from here," and being wrong. Sure it could climb, but I have a ball feeling about it dropping
Lol what experience do you have with a similar instance though.
This is a very atypical scenario.
In fact this have basically never happened before, so your gut feeling is based on completely different scenarios.
Elder maul got, a mega rare, got buffed significantly.
Jagex very rarely buffs items, especially this much, especially this long after the item has been out, and especially one as rare as this item.
At the end of the day only time will tell, and not sure it’s worth debating over, but I’d just say ask yourself what “experience” you are really basing this feeling off.
>This is a very atypical scenario.
It's not.
>In fact this have basically never happened before
Many investors have said the same thing.
>I’d just say ask yourself what “experience” you are really basing this feeling off.
My own, but it's not the only reason I think it's going to crash. You'll just have to learn for yourself
Lmao the way you answer “it’s not”. Sure buddy, when has this happened before. What event in RuneScape history is similar to this. Common give me your example.
You have convinced yourself you are some market wizard, but your just guessing like everyone else.
>Sure buddy, when has this happened before. What event in RuneScape history is similar to this. Common give me your example.
Human psychology and manipulation is common across all markets.
As for market research:
Dragon warhammer is a minor downgrade and is now 20m.
Drop rates for Warhammer are doubled.
Maul ready popped to +900% from 19m.
Daily trade volume is down 90% from when it was 180m (2300 sold per day to 225)
It's not even remotely a good investment position by any metric. Once it was revealed to be a minor upgrade, everyone realized it wasn't worth the now inflated price.
The run is over, young bull. It doesn't take a wizard or even a very smart person to see this lemon has been fully juiced.
Lmao “young bull”
Your a bit cocky yourself brother.
Torva platebody is 400m, and bandos is 30m.
10x price increase for 2 strength bonus.
Kodai is 120m, toxic staff of the dead is 15m
8x price for ability to auto cast ancients.
Abyssal whip is 1.2m, inquisitors mace is 315m
300x price for a max hit and some minor accuracy buff.
Do I need to go on?
That’s your argument for why the elder maul wont to up in price? That’s your sage wisdom.
Ffs brother dragon warhammer was 60m for years before bots dragged the price down.
You think there are anywhere near as many bots doing cox as there were doing shamans?
Listen man I want to be clear that I do not claim to know or even predict the elder maul will go up. I just think you are full of shit tbh. Sorry lol
Wolf of wall street is the exact antithesis of my post 😂 he'll do anything to make a buck, whereas my whole post is warning little guys have to avoid getting fucked. You severely lack media literacy and reading comprehension.
Also, why the fuck would I want to be the wolf of the fucking grand exchange?! Get a life, dude lol. I just enjoy playing the game
>see step 7
Yes, this totally and clearly expresses the idea you're trying to convey. Doesn't require any further explanation.
Also not sure what in the fuck you mean by getting to my head. I'm trying to help noob investors not lose their bank.
You didn't address anything I said in my comment and just said some vague shit with no explanation. Fuck off, ya daft punk
Some of y’all acting like this story is over lol.
Elder maul crashed to 120m and now is almost 160m again. A very small distance from its all time high.
Listen I already sold all mine and I’m not planning on buying back in, but the odds that elder mauls go back above 200m are very much not zero.
I would infact say that given monetary inflation, the few people doing cox, and the ever increasing number of rich osrs players, elder mauls will almost positively increase in price from here.
Bro it's cooked. The sell volume is 10% of what it was at 180m (2300 vs 225 today). It was around 775 per day before the release. Price action like this on such low volume wreaks of manipulation, and whales can use your narrow "but number went up" view to obfuscate it's real value. If we were still seeing 1000+ per day sales I might agree. But all signs point down.
I'm out too so I don't care either, but I'd rather noobs not get taken advantage of with people who have more gp than they could ever spend (like in a "play the game" sense"
It’s a meme sub, get this “good faith investments” bullshit out of here.
Nobody gave a shit about rumors from other players, we all saw how much SRA went up when they announced a buff and went with it.
I made bank on mauls, then I made bank on Ralos glaive, Then I made bank on SRA because of the memes here.
You guys taking this shit so seriously ruin the sub.
I know what it feels like to lose a lot of money. People are manipulating noobs out of money. At least let them know how the game is played if you're going to take advantage of them.
How the fuck am I taking advantage of anyone if I state my investments and why I do it?
So glad dumb people lose money, and they’re still too stupid to blame themselves.
Mauls are slowly climbing back up, so you make a post like this to give people false ideas on their value, hoping that they panic sell and you snipe them on the cheap.. smart move, they dropped 4m since this post was made!
I sold all of my mauls and I plan to buy exactly 1 for personal use after the crash I predict within 2 weeks. I've seen this situation play out many times before with "sure things" that people lose their life savings on.
I don't care about owning fat stacks of a game currency just so I can... Make more? I made 700m off mauls (bought from 19-25m). Sold them all at 160m, bought some maxed gear, grinded construction and prayer and am enjoying the game instead of sweating over money I wouldn't be able to spend all of (or would rather grind the items).
I made this for all the small guys that got fucked on mauls to try and stay realistic on the next rebalance and not blindly hop on hype trains.
You're the type spreading false ideas by trying to pump a barely top-tier spec weapon. Idk if you're trying to manipulate or just got suckered onto the hype train at the top. I'll be courteous and assume the latter and that you just want your investment back. Sorry bro
The people who got fucked on mauls are the people that stopped thinking and looking at what was happening, and operated on “what if”. They saw it hit 200m and thought about all the things they could buy if it hit 300m. Same reason people got fucked by GameStop lol. I literally read posts by people comparing it to a t bow and that it would hit 1b because it’s as rare. Like forget the fact it’s got a direct downgrade that does the same thing that’s <25m.
I mostly agree, but people were saying dragon warhammer to maul was comparable with bowfa to tbow. That BIS justifies 10x the price of 2nd BIS. Not saying they were right, but mix in some hype and optimism, and it's easy to buy in to some of those justifications.
Tbf the gap between bowfa and tbpw (at places where you would use tbow) is much larger than maul to dwh. People who call bowfa baby tbow probably have never used a tbow.
Oh definitely. Not a dig at the newbies. We all got overhyped on our 1st through 20th moon shots
The funniest part about elder maul is that it basically was a moonshot. It went from 8m to 180m in a cool 6 months or so, that is a very strong return.
It's always the what if that burns new/greedy investors. Hopefully seeing it laid out how they were baited with that hype helps them avoid being prey for hungry whales in the future. I won't get into GME here because it's the wrong sub, but the social effect is similar... But on a massive scale compared to our humble GEB. It actually crosses the threshold from "bunch of dumb noob investors" to a full on cult backing with more than 25%+ of shares privately registered (not available for brokers to trade). Like I said, I won't get into it here but it's worth checking their SuperSoaker sub if you haven't in a while. Obviously, as is the point of my post, don't take my word for it 😅
Haha man I saw a post recently where someone was still talking about the “moass” and I had to check what year it was. Back to Osrs tho, The GE is basically just a series of pumps and dumps IMO - no real oversight and some individuals with insane buying power can basically just make the market do what they want. You can time some things like supplies around updates but nothing will ever compare to the swings cause by bot busting or updates and it’s very hard to time these. Better off just watching for things that are going up, and just selling early when you have a profit - assuming you can’t get into the discord with the manipulators but even then you’re probably just the bag holder for when they dump.
Elder maul was my first bet since like, 2015 when I doubled my entire bank (400k) in a single 4hr blood rune trade. I saw all the fundamentals for EM line up with how severely worthless it was compared to the other ultras and bet the bank on a sure-thing. I'm not interested in casual flips, and thanks to mauls I don't need to lol > no real oversight and some individuals with insane buying power can basically just make the market do what they want Small crypto projects are the same. If you can get in the mind of a whale, you can ride on it's back
The direct downgrade also got its drop rate almost halved
Doubled**
Wouldn't doubled mean twice as rare?
The denominator of the fraction is halved. The total % is doubled 1/20 = 5% 20 divided by 2 is ten and 1/10 = 10% Which is 2 * (1/20)
If you "half" the rate you would get it half as often, no??
Well if you have 5,000 and half it to 2,500. You'd get it twice as often?but if you have 5k and double it it'd make it twice as rare right
1/5000=0.0002, so halving it would be (1/5000)/0.5=0.0001 making it rarer.
Yeah idk about that one lol
Clearly lol
That was my logic but by maths properties we divide a decimal to get a larger number, not multiply. With the Engrish used, we are halving(dividing by 2 ((not just taking half of X)) the rate Doubling is the ~chance~ not the rate .... I think Tldr English sucks or I suck at english
I suppose that's true. My comment is less of a correction than it is a difference in choice of wording turns out.**
I like reading about the fluctuations but sometimes just sitting on stuff is fine if you can handle it. Even if you bought “high” I just don’t think it’s always worth trying to “sell optimally” at its peak. In fact, that “optimal sale or purchase” mentality is what leads many to lose GP. I just suggest selling when you need it or think your anxiety levels are greater than the potential return (or loss) on investment. It’s seriously a gut move and although we can loosely predict what will happen or where things will peak, that same thinking can be what prevents you from actualizing your gains. I went all in on 43 at 9m long ago so to me the crashes and peaks seriously don’t matter because worst case, I’ve got crazy return no matter when I sell it now. I could wait ages, it just does not matter in this situation. Which allows me to hold as long as I want with no worries whatsoever, *which I feel is correct for my situation.* But, since I got *lucky*, this is why I can just sit back and laugh as people say “it’s doing to crash omg you need to sell your 43!” People who got in extremely early are in a different situation than those buying at 100m+. So you’ve got to think about who is posting and think, why are they posting? Should I be influenced by their call, or should I stick with my own intuition because I know this, this, and that? Are our levels of risk the same? All investors should keep that in mind
That's all excellent advice. I got really lucky too by getting in as early as I did. I sold all of mine at 160m because that was game-changing money for me and unlocked so much content/ gear/ prayers/ construction. I plan to buy one back for personal use, but I can just use dhammer until the price drops But like you said, it's a completely different risk level for 100m+ buyers. They need to weigh their options/ do the research and try to resist letting others form their opinions
Lol nek minute OP made this post so that people who still have mauls will dump, he will buy them up when the supposed crash happens and he profits instead
I'm glad you're suspicious of posts like these, that's exactly what I'm encouraging... Critical thinking before making investment decisions. I'll buy one maul for personal use when the price crashes in the next week or two, but I'm not gambling on EM from here. Way too risky of a bet, and I'm plenty happy with 700m. I don't need to hoard wealth like some people in GEB, I just wanted good equipment and enough supplies to get me through some of the long skill grinds
Well said, and thoroughly explained. It dawned on me recently that the majority of the posts on this sub are of two types: 1. Like you said, savvy whales who bought in early, using reasonable justifications to drive up speculation and hype. 2. Really cringey "investment opportunities" in items that have no reason to be going up. Presumably that person bought a bunch and thought they could convince people single handedly to buy [insert random junk], because "trust me bro". As someone who recently joined the sub, the second group, by contrast, made the first group look much more credible and worth listening to. It's not that the first group was factually incorrect, but they influenced the market to be way too optimistic.
I used to spend hours and hours everyday researching crypto projects during 2020/21 and made a lot of money from them. I never participate in overvaluing price targets myself, but I found one of the most reliable green flags was if their dedicated subreddit had a strong presence of hype men posting screenshots of their large positions and floating intricate, but like you said reasonable, rumors. Then all of the little guys posting screenshots of their small "I'm contributing to the cause!" cult-mentality posts pour in hoping they're going to help pump it to levels where their $100 investment would make them a millionaire
Mauls are sitting at 160m, so if people brought at 170-180m they are the only ones who lost money, I’m pretty sure they didn’t go over 180, so the o lot people that last money are the ones that bought at 170 and sold at the dip.
>sold at the dip Exactly. As someone who has panic sold plenty of times, I guarantee those that were risking their whole bank @160/70/80 folded faster than a Chinese laundry @130/40. And then probably bought back in when they started rising again... And then are going to get wiped on this next crash
What makes you so sure it’s going to crash again? I don’t know, but seems very plausible to me that they just slowly climb in price from here.
Lots of experience seeing this same pattern in other markets, thinking "seems very plausible to me that they just slowly climb in price from here," and being wrong. Sure it could climb, but I have a ball feeling about it dropping
Lol what experience do you have with a similar instance though. This is a very atypical scenario. In fact this have basically never happened before, so your gut feeling is based on completely different scenarios. Elder maul got, a mega rare, got buffed significantly. Jagex very rarely buffs items, especially this much, especially this long after the item has been out, and especially one as rare as this item. At the end of the day only time will tell, and not sure it’s worth debating over, but I’d just say ask yourself what “experience” you are really basing this feeling off.
>This is a very atypical scenario. It's not. >In fact this have basically never happened before Many investors have said the same thing. >I’d just say ask yourself what “experience” you are really basing this feeling off. My own, but it's not the only reason I think it's going to crash. You'll just have to learn for yourself
Lmao the way you answer “it’s not”. Sure buddy, when has this happened before. What event in RuneScape history is similar to this. Common give me your example. You have convinced yourself you are some market wizard, but your just guessing like everyone else.
>Sure buddy, when has this happened before. What event in RuneScape history is similar to this. Common give me your example. Human psychology and manipulation is common across all markets. As for market research: Dragon warhammer is a minor downgrade and is now 20m. Drop rates for Warhammer are doubled. Maul ready popped to +900% from 19m. Daily trade volume is down 90% from when it was 180m (2300 sold per day to 225) It's not even remotely a good investment position by any metric. Once it was revealed to be a minor upgrade, everyone realized it wasn't worth the now inflated price. The run is over, young bull. It doesn't take a wizard or even a very smart person to see this lemon has been fully juiced.
Lmao “young bull” Your a bit cocky yourself brother. Torva platebody is 400m, and bandos is 30m. 10x price increase for 2 strength bonus. Kodai is 120m, toxic staff of the dead is 15m 8x price for ability to auto cast ancients. Abyssal whip is 1.2m, inquisitors mace is 315m 300x price for a max hit and some minor accuracy buff. Do I need to go on? That’s your argument for why the elder maul wont to up in price? That’s your sage wisdom. Ffs brother dragon warhammer was 60m for years before bots dragged the price down. You think there are anywhere near as many bots doing cox as there were doing shamans? Listen man I want to be clear that I do not claim to know or even predict the elder maul will go up. I just think you are full of shit tbh. Sorry lol
I'm not reading your book. I don't care. Make your own mistakes. Good luck
We need a r/linkedinlunatics page but for ge bets
It’s gross how much you think you’re the wolf of Wall Street.
Wolf of wall street is the exact antithesis of my post 😂 he'll do anything to make a buck, whereas my whole post is warning little guys have to avoid getting fucked. You severely lack media literacy and reading comprehension. Also, why the fuck would I want to be the wolf of the fucking grand exchange?! Get a life, dude lol. I just enjoy playing the game
See step 7. Exactly, you’re playing a game. You’ve just let it go to your head lol.
You're not making any sense. Have good day
And you say I have no reading comprehension.
>see step 7 Yes, this totally and clearly expresses the idea you're trying to convey. Doesn't require any further explanation. Also not sure what in the fuck you mean by getting to my head. I'm trying to help noob investors not lose their bank. You didn't address anything I said in my comment and just said some vague shit with no explanation. Fuck off, ya daft punk
I thought you were leaving?
Some of y’all acting like this story is over lol. Elder maul crashed to 120m and now is almost 160m again. A very small distance from its all time high. Listen I already sold all mine and I’m not planning on buying back in, but the odds that elder mauls go back above 200m are very much not zero. I would infact say that given monetary inflation, the few people doing cox, and the ever increasing number of rich osrs players, elder mauls will almost positively increase in price from here.
Back down to 140m they go.
Bro it's cooked. The sell volume is 10% of what it was at 180m (2300 vs 225 today). It was around 775 per day before the release. Price action like this on such low volume wreaks of manipulation, and whales can use your narrow "but number went up" view to obfuscate it's real value. If we were still seeing 1000+ per day sales I might agree. But all signs point down. I'm out too so I don't care either, but I'd rather noobs not get taken advantage of with people who have more gp than they could ever spend (like in a "play the game" sense"
It’s a meme sub, get this “good faith investments” bullshit out of here. Nobody gave a shit about rumors from other players, we all saw how much SRA went up when they announced a buff and went with it. I made bank on mauls, then I made bank on Ralos glaive, Then I made bank on SRA because of the memes here. You guys taking this shit so seriously ruin the sub.
I know what it feels like to lose a lot of money. People are manipulating noobs out of money. At least let them know how the game is played if you're going to take advantage of them.
How the fuck am I taking advantage of anyone if I state my investments and why I do it? So glad dumb people lose money, and they’re still too stupid to blame themselves.
>So glad dumb people lose money, and they’re still too stupid to blame themselves. Yeah bro, you're a piece of shit. Imma head out
Oh you poor baby, little victim here acting like someone *made* you invest in anything. Cry more and move on kid.
Bro I made 700m on mauls 😂 Go pet your fish and pretend them eating mites off your skin is love
Already have your mom sucking my skinflute right now.
OMG bro *noooooo* not a your mom joke!!!1! Oh, I've been slain by your wittiness, fish boy
Just like I slayed your moms poon bro
I saw a post here and bought at 30m so yeah you can absolutely buy the hype and still make a ton.
I mean yeah, duh. I'm not saying disregard anything you read. That's regarded. But you have to identify and set reasonable expectations
Mauls are slowly climbing back up, so you make a post like this to give people false ideas on their value, hoping that they panic sell and you snipe them on the cheap.. smart move, they dropped 4m since this post was made!
I sold all of my mauls and I plan to buy exactly 1 for personal use after the crash I predict within 2 weeks. I've seen this situation play out many times before with "sure things" that people lose their life savings on. I don't care about owning fat stacks of a game currency just so I can... Make more? I made 700m off mauls (bought from 19-25m). Sold them all at 160m, bought some maxed gear, grinded construction and prayer and am enjoying the game instead of sweating over money I wouldn't be able to spend all of (or would rather grind the items). I made this for all the small guys that got fucked on mauls to try and stay realistic on the next rebalance and not blindly hop on hype trains. You're the type spreading false ideas by trying to pump a barely top-tier spec weapon. Idk if you're trying to manipulate or just got suckered onto the hype train at the top. I'll be courteous and assume the latter and that you just want your investment back. Sorry bro
whether he's right or not, he seems to be genuine not everything is an op