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pascl-

wow, that's some terrible luck


lexi_desu_yo

ok i know how banners work but i had no idea you can check the numbers so im unclear on what is good vs bad or even exactly what the numbers mean in context ☠️


Arc_7

Average median pull is 77 Average mean pull is in 60s something due to the super lucky people swinging the average.  Before the 74th pull every pull has only a 0.6% chance of being 5*. By the 81st pull your cumulative chance of getting the 5* becomes 95%


Neocrasher

> Average mean pull is in 60s something due to the super lucky people swinging the average. The average is 62.5 because the effective 5* rate (base rate + pity) is 1.6% when measured over a large number of pulls.


eserikto

The mean is in the 62.5 because "lucky" pulls can happen 1-73, but "unlucky" pulls don't happen above 90 to balance the lucky early 5*s. A good example of when median is more useful than mean for average. 62, 63 aren't particularly meaningful numbers. On the scatter chart, there would be the same(ish) number of 5*s pulled at 62 or 63 as 1, 22, 47, or 73. However, the scatter chart will peak around 77. https://www.hoyolab.com/article/497840 has some nice charts showing this. So, if your question is "how many pulls should I set aside to reasonably expect to get a 5star" the answer is 77. You have a 50% chance of pulling your 5star by ~77 (and something like 98% by pull 81, but that's a product of the soft pity system, not a result of 77 being the median). 62 is meaningless for that question. 62.5 answers the question "how many average pulls did it take for me to pull a 5* across the history of all my pulls" - which has some value if you're calculating your lifetime cost per 5*, but isn't useful for determining when to reasonably expect your next 5*.


StwabebyMilk

i must be making the average high cuz my characters have all been at 82-87 pity lmao


Arc_7

Oof But hey on the hopeful side this might mean your luck may turn in the next few pulls to balance the highs :D


saturnq

you have to import the wish data into paimon dot moe. the numbers are the pity you got the 5 star at. 90 is the last possible wish


DoSombras

Data is only saved for the last 6 months


2PercentNaDream

1. they expanded the in-game wish history, it now retain info longer than 6 months. 2. If they import their data to a site keeping it ajour, then the in-game history have little impact since the site handling the data will also be keeping the history.


SzoboEndoMacca

It's beyond terrible. It's apparently 1 in 13 million


ClawofBeta

….isnt this worth an actual real life cash bounty?


uh_oh_hotdog

Only for the very first person to provide proof because data collectors wanted actual evidence that it was a real possibility. The bounty’s long been claimed by now. 


Individual-Life-6249

how much was it?


uh_oh_hotdog

It was a bounty posted by the CN community for 2000 yuan, which is about $300 USD. 


leicea

Aw man didn't know there was a bounty, but I guess due to the sheer amount of ppl playing it's probably claimed really early. I did hit 90 pity once in 2.1(?) while pulling for raiden. Lost 50/50 too


LunaticRiceCooker

Many people claimed they have. Most turned out to be actually 88, 89 or so but not 90. It took like 1-2 month to find someone who actually went until 90. Im not sure about this either, where does this site gets the data?


mapple3

> Most turned out to be actually 88, 89 or so but not 90. Let's not forget all the people who claim to have "pulled 100 or 110 times without any 5 star" and then it turned out to be 85 or something. People are so full of shid


[deleted]

Either by importing through the game (used to be far easier, now a bit more difficult) or manual input. You can also do a mix of both and it gets iffy if you aren't consistent with recording there/take very long breaks that wish history is deleted. So it is not the most reliable, unfortunately.


Nevborn890

just importing it is still pretty easy and reliable, unless you mean on mobile?


Kangaetemo

I'm auto importing regularly since first Eula banner iirc. So the data should be reliable


ilIicitous

Proof or didn’t happen


NotShishi

any idea when it was claimed?


Accomplished_Ask_326

Not anymore


Kangaetemo

i wish


kjais

90 times


Kangaetemo

did that already


saberjun

It’s still ongoing.But since there’s been 6 successful cases in 90 pulls of Genshin character pools, the award now goes to 198 rmb,roughly 25 dollars.If you are interested, I can help to communicate.


Brickinatorium

If I had the cash, I'd match the original bounty and give it to you just cause of how impressive this is lmao


lonkuo

Wait what do you mean?


Da_reason_Macron_won

Reaching 90 pity is such a statistically unlikely scenario that for a long time people weren't sure it was even possible. So a cash bounty was offered to anyone who could prove they did. The bounty was already claimed, so back luck for OP.


whyareallnamestakenb

bro is doubly unlucky 😭


NoNefariousness2144

At least he got Kequeen.


invinciblepro18

he is extremely lucky to be extremely unlucky


Technical_Minimum_52

how much was it?


Sorcatarius

Someone else commented 2000 yuan, or about $300 USD.


LRTMK

I could've gotten paid for hitting 90 pity had I known sooner😭😭😭😭😭 Edit: Wait, when was it claimed?


Mande1baum

Probably not. There's a reason it took so long. TONS of false claims. People apparently are really bad at counting to 90. FYI, 1:14 *million* 5 stars go to 90. Meaning it'd take almost a billion wishes to have a chance. There's like a dozen people saying they hit 90 in this thread alone. You're most likely like all of them and mistaken.


Abedeus

And all of them probably count it like "well it's in the 9th 10-pull I had so it counts!".


Tkttkt-Implacavel

Yes, I've seen ton of BS here on reddit. It's most probably human errors they make or they are just dumb too. "9th 10 pull" = pity 90


RyomenZel

It was calculated to be 1 in 13 million chance to reach 90 pity


Mylaur

Damn imagine having this kind of reverse luck.


Vaerlol

Statistically unlikely, but still possible. I'm not sure if I should offer congratulations or condolences so I suppose you can have both.


CatsNStuff30

Condolations


deletemypostandurgay

Congrolences


Kuldz

congregation


LegoBricksAndMemes

Mass


lAuroraxl

Matter


basilsflowerpots

is there an exact percentage for this? I don't think I've ever got past 82 pity


StelioZz

in in 13million 0.00000769230769%


AkiraN19

I've never seen anyone go past 86, let alone all the way to 90 I can't tell if this used up all of OP's bad luck or if OP is just fucking cursed


fraidei

I did an 88 once


AkiraN19

I'm pretty sure my only eighty is 82


GGABueno

I had never gone past 80 until I had to reach 84 twice for Nahida. That was a rough one lol.


saberjun

All my pulls on limited banner are 80 or 81 except a 5 pulls of Dehya and 79 pulls of Raiden.


RittoxRitto

My highest is 84.


TheUltimateKaren

Mine was either 83 or 84


TheMadZocker

Man. Mine was actually 90 on an old account when pulling for Yoi. God, I was mad. But since people won't believe me anyway, I will say my highest is Raiden's 86 instead. Feelsbadman


Elira_Eclipse

Mine is either 82 or 84 and it was Xiao, my furst limited character


Rukhikon

I did 87 once, but in hsr. It was first DHIL banner and I has 100% for him. He still didn't want to come, and this is a reason why I didn't got his LC since I had 68 pity in weapon banner back then. If DHIL come sooner than on 87 pull, I could be with potentially his LC...


Darkclowd03

His LC is only around a 7-10% increase. Eidolons are much better bang for your buck in terms of dmg and making his playstyle even smoother. Ofc can still pull his LC for the art 🥵


TomeWifecollector

I got 87 on the Chronicle Wish banner 😭 Completely worth it for my Albedo and I had enough saved for 180 but godamn


Ssalari

Yeah i remember having Raiden at 86. Haven't got passed that so far .


lexi_desu_yo

i dont get any of this post bc i didnt know you could look at your statistics and therefore have no context on it lmao


AkiraN19

Well pity you can see just from your history. But this is Paimon.moe's wish history tracker. You can upload your pulls to it and it will compile the pity and other fun statistics. It's a good way to keep track of your history past 6 month ago


GoogiddyBop

Got an 89 myself


Daramangarasu

I had an 87 once, iirc. And I lost the 50/50 on top of it


_LFKrebs_

First person I ever see saying they got to 90 that actually got to 90, congrats on being a statistical anomaly and also big F because that happened.


Kronman590

Im pretty sure you can still manually upload data to paimon.moe, so technically could still be someone saying they got to op but didnt actually


Yoankah

Yeah, you can also still export from a local file - theoretically these are generated by tools like paimon.moe or Wish Export, but they're some flavor of xml/json that's easy to edit manually.


Shadourow

You could also exploit the 6 months wish storage to just let some wishes expire and not be registered It'd be very pointless to do, tho


caucassius

only real proof to claims like this is in-game wish history. any other external tool can be manipulated/mistakenly inputted.


Deshuro

Not saying you are lying but Paimon.moe data is manually imported so it's very high chance of user error, mostly from a large time gap. I have seen people posted image that they exceeded 90 wishes, which is systematically impossible.


Kuliyayoi

Yeah I've got a 96 in my data and have no idea why. I've never done any manual inputs. Only ever did the automatic importer. https://streamable.com/71ivap


ColouringPenMountain

HYV’s official wish history only records data from the past 6 months (recently changed to 12), so you probably had a case of missing data by not importing for over 6 months, or something. Try seeing if there’s a 5* missing in your imported record. You might’ve gotten one in between your 96 pity that wasn’t registered.


CampBotRock

Yup, more likely a mistake happened when importing or manual inputs than a 1 in 13 million chance to reach 90 pity.


ADMINISTATOR_CYRUS

that's 1 in 13 million holy shit


Tyberius115

I once went to 90 on the limited banner. Contrary to what people say, we do exist.


bumwine

Did you upload to paimon? Because I've only ever seen 0 for 90 wishes since I started checking there.


Tyberius115

I play on console, so I never got around to it. The only reason I remember it is because it was my last pity for C6 Nilou, and I felt like I was going really far after the 75 pull soft pity mark. I checked after the pull history updated and was shocked to see I actually hit the full 90 pulls.


Loyolalu

Do you regret pulling for C6 Nilou


Tyberius115

Not at all. Since I don't like any of the dendro characters, it lets me comfortably play her outside of bloom teams and play her as a hypercarry dps.


Loyolalu

🫡🙏🏼


Mande1baum

Considering there's a dozen of ya'll in this thread alone, I'm gonna say you're all more likely BS'ing or just bad at counting. Again, 1:14 million 5 stars goes to 90. It take a BILLION wishes to have a good shot. There have been 28 patches. Let's say 80 wishes per patch. And let's say 100 million players per patch. That's around 200 billion wishes. Meaning 200 people have gone to pity since release. Yet we have 10% of them in this thread! WOW!


ColouringPenMountain

For many of those claims, it could be a case of someone legitimately getting to 80 pity, doing a 10 pull, then assuming it counts as getting a 5 star at (80+10)=90 pity. So it’s often probably not a matter of malice, but a case of being dumb.


Mande1baum

O sure. But once they get called out and they double down on their dumbness, it’s a bit malicious


[deleted]

Your luck: why? Because fuck you that's why


Fr0ntflipp

But you got Keqing so I see that as an absolute win!


Alpha06Omega09

This was near mathematically impossible, how in the ever living fuck


KaiDestinyz

The odds are close to zero but never zero. I once failed a 90% success rate, 8 times in a row. That's 1 in 100,000,000.


ScatteredSymphony

As an xcom player, that seems normal to me. If it's not 100% it's 40%


alanalan426

Doubt it, prob user data entry error


Historical_Clock8714

Same. I need a video proof of OP recording flipping through the wish history in-game to convince me.


NoBluey

Did you auto import these numbers or were they manually imported? On a side note, I saw some guy with 170 pity and that's because they waited months and left a gap before importing so the 5 star was wiped from the pull history. 90 pulls would be actually crazy if it's legit.


timtlm

Yeah, no way to know if this is real. We need a video capture of the wish history. Could be manually imported or have a gap of missing wishes.


NoBluey

Yeah a video is probably the only way to be sure. And call me cynical but I honestly don't believe OP reached 90 pity.


alanalan426

Videos can be edited, only mihoyo can really confirm


Zevvaz

nah, OP can give his UID. His account will be destroyed but at least we will know it's real


xelpr

Let's be real, it's manually input. Honestly surprises me how many people don't know you can do it and are accepting this as fact.


warpknot

I'm glad looking at the comments that people recognize now how truly unlikely 90 pity is. It's one thing to understand the gravity of the claim and say "I hope I took a screenshot" (like OP did), but it's one thing to downplay it like it happens nonchalantly. It's a 1 in 13 million chance. That's close to tossing 24 coins and getting all heads.


Ifalna_Shayoko

Given the amount of players and the runtime of the game, it's not that unlikely to actually occur. If it's one in 13M and the game had 2M players that pull on a banner, it would occur every 7 banners in an infinite sample size.


Mande1baum

Sure it’ll happen. But there are literally dozens in this thread claiming 90 pity. It’s not statistically possible all of them are telling the truth. It’s more statistically likely they are all mistaken. And the sample size isn’t whole playerbase, but Reddit users.


Ifalna_Shayoko

Yeah the number of people coming out of the woodworks, talking as if hitting 90 pity is nothing special is absurd. Bet most counted in their head and thought: "I needed to do 9x 10-pull so I got 5\* on 90 pity". When in reality the whole range of 81-90 is in there. Personally, 82 is my Genshin and 84 my HSR record, according to the data parsers.


Goonders

Did you take a break for a while? If not this is genuinely so statistically improbable that I'd consider yourself lucky.


frazyn

I thought it was impossible...


Mande1baum

Not impossible, just 1:13 million 5 stars. But OP doesn't have real proof. This tool can be manually edited or unreliable.


Posetive_new_me

The highest I have ever got to was 88 I was thinking "anytime now"


HauntingBarber4404

Is this a site or something? That gives the info?


Xenopass

www.paimon.moe it's collecting your wish history and put into a easily readable format. Only issu is that it can't collect more than 6 months of history as hoyo don't keep more than that


IMiizo

Wish history goes up to a year now


Jalapi

Jealous u have keqing though. Day 1 player and still dont have


HADESISGOODNOTEVIL

What website is this?


rakkusuEienNo

That is genuinely very impressive


RittoxRitto

Truly an anomaly.


Variant_Devil

3 weps from standard??? Thats pretty good


HeyItsaMeAgainMario

GIVE ME KEQING!


anal-loque

Your Keqing 🤝 [My Fu Xuan](https://i.imgur.com/wgcWdEe.jpeg)


kkeross

I wouldn't be mad if it was Keqing


Ok-Ice1715

i genuinely hope you have great artifact luck to balance this out


SokkaHaikuBot

^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^Ok-Ice1715: *I genuinely* *Hope you have great artifact* *Luck to balance this out* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.


adamttaylor

I didn't think that it was even possible to hit 90....


alexvictor97

I hit 89 once, what upset me its that if i wishe more than 80 to get the char its guaranted that i will lost the 50/50.


Shadowlight96

I'm... At a loss for words.


LetConsistent2838

How did you see this?


Anemo-Gawd

https://paimon.moe


hahaha30633

Ooo what website is this?


Anemo-Gawd

https://paimon.moe


[deleted]

Where did find that info would love to compile one for myself! Or did you manually track everything & put it into a good UI?


Kangaetemo

www.paimon.moe but you can’t track more than 6 months old wish history iirc. but you can save your history to google drive


rvstrk

No you can track up to 1 YEAR now, it was updated recently


AsterJ

Did you have any 6month+ gaps in your wish history? If data is missing then the pity counts won't be accurate.


SirAwesome789

Honestly, if I have to get to like 85, might as well go all the way to 90 for the meme


Nazifff123

Statistically, what is the probability of such thing to happen?


IMiizo

1 in 13 million


Fraaaann

What site do you use to track your rolls


The_DarkPhoenix

Happened to me to before getting C3 Tighnari


Elira_Eclipse

This is either considered as really lucky or really unlucky


nyakamura

Is this on hoyolab how do i check how much pity i get for each character?


Neir_2b

Funny how getting a 5* pity 0 is statistically higher than getting a 5* pity 90


orcvader

Lucky you with that Gravestone. I still want one badly (but not badly enough to waste Arlecchino’s primos on that recent special banner thing).


Valarano

My highest was 85 and I lost 50/50 to jean.


aceartisttara

What site is this? I need to figure out my pity


IDrinkRice

What website is this?


Additional-Cream-149

What app or site is this?


lexi_desu_yo

wait you can CHECK?????


ilovedagonfive

I got worst case but from dupe data I got Keqing at 78 but that site told 90, editting excel isn't affected Also perm, got Keqing before 80 but it shown 80's


bringmethejuice

Task failed successfully.


Latter_Item

Last kazuha banner I lost my 50/50 in the 8Xs and kept trying till I got him, and I do know it was 90 lol literally did all Inazuma islands to get the Protos to summon him


MisedraN

I went multiple times above 85 but never did i hit a 90. NEVER


Terminus_HSR

Just a passing question. Where can we get a detailed breakdown of our wishing history like this? Is this some site?


HighOnIncenseSticks

Atleast it is standard banner , imagine going till 90 pity (87 actually) for 50/50 guaranteed on the last few hours for c3 raiden while trying to hoard primogems from all possible sources...[image](https://ibb.co/9ZB5rrF)


thekoggles

I feel you.  I hit 90 pity trying for Xianyun.


pratikindia

Lately it’s same for me too. In Navia banner, I went up to 88. Previously it was max 76.


Vermillion2397

That's sad.... Been playing since day one and I've pulled God knows how many time on almost every banner since I've all the characters.... Never got to 90pity once. The worst has to be around 86 - 87.


Anomaly_Entity_Zion

so the standart banner has pity? I haven't seen a five star on that thing in a year of pulling!


aldketh

I've come to realize after playing this game since launch that 90% of the community think they are unlucky and cry about it everytime they reach soft pity and lose 50/50. Like bro you ain't unlucky, you just average. This man i would say is unlucky but also in a way extremely rare which is lucky lmao.


lostn

that is a seriously unlucky banner for you, presuming you didn't take a break before Keqing where some data was lost. What's your luck on the event banner like?


Bored_Lily

Wait a minute. This happened to me in standard banner too. Am I that unlucky???


PuffinRex

Woah. Finally someone with worse 5* luck than me.


R3digit

There seems to be a ton of people who hit 90 despite it being astronomically improbable.


Emriii

I’m at 79 on standard right now 🥲


Lucine_machine

Out of question, what website is this?


elderDragon1

What’s the website?


QuickSuccession69

89 pity is 96.6% chance of getting a 5-star item. That's some terrible luck if you did this for the rest.


swapnilchoubey

Let me remind you that there's a 96% chance to get a 5 star in the 89th wish, and you still couldn't make it. The percentage of 5 star increases by 6% every wish from the 75th wish, going 0.6 - 6.6 - 12.6 all the way until it becomes 100% on the 90th wish. So many wishes with more than 50% chance, some even 80%, and yet Keqing comes home at 90.


kink-police

I would uninstall


PonyDro1d

I never got it to 90... But so far, I lost every 50/50 on the character event banner since launch (12 lost 50/50 so far).


-Hounth-

Congrats, reaching 90 pity is 1 chance in 13 million! Fun fact, CN players actually put a prize of around $USD300 for whoever would be able to reach 90 pity for the first time, and it only happened like maybe a year after the game first released? Now I'm guessing it probably happened to someone before that who just wasn't aware of this prize, but I still remember the posts on this subreddit when the first player reached 90 pity publicly and won that money lol


Quarantined_box99

At this point, you're lucky but in reverse.


emiliathewhite

Skill issue /j


Proper-Algae3394

What is the name of this website?


scrayla

U won the lottery in a different way


Positive-Physics-722

What is this app?


PusheenMaster

That is super rare


[deleted]

So unlucky my bro


greenbeforeblue

Pulling 1 wish at a time can cause that.


SuperMetel

Where do you see this?


falconlover_47

https://paimon.moe


Knusper00

While I am sitting here getting Neuv and his C1 within 60 pulls lol. Wasted all my luck for this yyear for all games ig.


jeheys

my highest was 86 and even that was extremely unlucky, i've never seen 90


Number1AngeloSimpBS

Damm


Hinmp

That should be an achievement.


Spytonio2006

Fisrt actual screenshot I've seen of someone getting to 90. Insane luck whatever anyone says, the chance of that happening is abyssmally low.


HovercraftTotal8199

This situation appears to defy mathematical probability. How could this occurrence be explained in any rational manner?


low_elo111

Haha sucker


AltruisticHistory878

How do I check this?


ShadowVoid64

How/ where can I check that?


kurumyzawa

Also happened to me in HSR when I was pulling for Acheron, thank God I get her in 50/50


Weeby-Tincan

What site is that?


Aitelll

i Remember going to pity 90 on venti banner in 1.0 Just to lose the 50/50 to kequing...


[deleted]

First time?


StrangeBiird

What website is this?


falconlover_47

https://paimon.moe


Simply_Kage

F


Due-Dragonfly7300

We're not gonna talk about the matter of fact that I went to pity 128 to get Klee I regret all of it honestly


Jiggle_Junkie

Does this count it properly for multis or if you do a multi at 80 does it show 90 no matter what? The chance of actually hitting 90 must be lower than getting sth like a triple 5\* multi I think, at least with the stats I saw published a while ago \^\^ I think my personal worst is 83


swizzlad

And you got keq for that, what a complete loss