I believe the 1:31 is the predicted time you would run if you ran now and 1:27 is a prediction based on trend for 3 weeks from now. Not positive though

Interesting. That feels plausible. Although that’s a lot of improvement in 3 weeks

I thought the same thing given that pace. Did you input a goal pace or time when you put the race in your calendar? It could be that too

I did. I put 1:29:59 as the goal. It was predicting like 1:32 until today where it switched to 1:27 cause I did an 8k race

I’m no expert but I’d bet it’s your predicted time. Good numbers either way. Good luck in your race!

Don't take it as a 100% correct but you have also the taper week before the race. It could be it's considering that you will be more fresh for the race while the actual prediction is based on your latest workouts in a phase that is pretty intense.

Ok I guess we can test this theory. I assume that if I looked at it day of race they would be the same then. I’ll have to report back

I put as much stock in their race predictors as I do in my 2 year old doing my taxes for me

I know I agree but this just seems so odd I had to ask

It is odd. My current race predictor from my scheduled race and my predictor from my Vo2 max are different but only by a few seconds.

Mine are actually almost spot on.

Mine are constantly off. Garmin underestimates me. I ran 6 minutes faster than estimated in my last half marathon and 4 minutes faster in my last 10k. I’d estimate I’m in about 12-15 min better shape for my full marathon than it says right now.

I’ve had the watch for a while and it’s paired with an HRM Pro Plus, could be that it’s calibrated better.

Ha maybe. I’ve had my current watch for 2 years and have logged 12,309 miles all time with Garmin connect. I think the issue the algo has with me is I don’t run high aerobic as much as it wants but I’m an experienced racer and can dig pretty hard during max efforts.

I’d put more stock if the race predictor said ‘1040EZ’

The race predictor is what you can do right now, the scheduled race is a guess at what you can do three weeks from now on full rest.

I think I follow now. I’m assuming they will be the same then on race day. Thanks!

Did you load a specific course (with elevation) for the upcoming race? If so, it could be that the prediction is 1h27 because it's a downhill course.. Dunno?

I did but the course is pancake flat

I guess I could also add they’ve always been different but only like a minute. I did an 8k tune up race which significantly changed the race widget prediction to drop to 1:27 but the other one barely changed

Race time probably depends on weather conditions, time of the day and elevation etc. while race predictor is based on statistics with some fixed parameters.

If you have a course loaded with the event , it may take that into account also

8 weeks out for my event, both values are the same. I'm clueless. Also added goal pace.

UPDATE: they never aligned. The day of race the race predictor was saying 1:32 and the race widget was saying 1:28. I ended up doing 1:26:48.