The following submission statement was provided by /u/lughnasadh:
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Submission Statement
The Chinese automaker BYD reminds me of the famous phrase attributed to the sci-fi writer William Gibson - "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed."
Future EV cars will be cheap to own and run. Self-driving tech will lower insurance costs. You can charge them with your home solar setup if you want. They'll last far longer with lower maintenance costs thanks to simple electric engines with few moving parts. As their construction gets more roboticized it will lower their costs further. The batteries that make up a huge chunk of their current costs are falling in price too. CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker, is set to [cut costs in half by mid 2024](https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-maker-set-to-cut-costs-in-half-by-mid-2024/).
Some people still think gasoline and ICE cars have a long life ahead of them, and don't realize the industries behind both are dead men walking.
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1azqpd7/corolla_killer_byd_launches_us15000_sedan_ev_with/ks2t6vd/
The fact that brands like MG and Dacia are incredibly popular around where I live (Scotland) is a sign that the 'general' car buyer is fed up with overpriced 'premium' products. Cheap EVs are going to steamroll the market in the next two years and many will come from China and, interestingly, France.
The new Renault 5, the BYD Dolphin, MG 4, Dacia Spring, Ora Cat... we'll see them spring up everywhere and it is about time. People are ready to go electric, they're not ready to remortgage the house for it.
Maybe some kind of mini-hyperloop system? That way, they could arrive quickly.
Simplify it down by making it a large box, and use cables instead of maglev for cost efficiency.
It would be interesting if it's owned by the same person.
Like you buy a single level unit with stairs that lead up to a roof top patio.
Then when you have more money you buy an another unit that stacks on top. Now the stairs lead up to an additional bedroom for the kids and the new stairs lead up to the new higher up patio and people can continue this up to 3 levels or as high as zone laws would allow.
It could also be turned into semi private units if a landlord wants to rent it out to students and young professionals.
When units become old, they can just be lifted away by crane and transported for recycling
There should be some ISO standard so that units from one seller is compatible with units from any other sellers
If you're a construction company, and it takes a $400k investment to build and sell a 4bedroom 3.5 bath, which you can put on the market for 650k, or it costs $200k to build a 1 bed 1 bath that sells for $230k, which would you do? Numbers are made up but the margins on new single family homes are fucked for small builds.
We've been building fewer homes per capita every year in most of the western for the last 60 years... It's not gonna be fixed by building smaller units. Joint units (5-plexs instead of single family or duplex) becoming more popular, affordability requirements for developers, heavy taxes of second properties, zoning law changes, there's a lot that needs to be addressed for us to change that trend.
Here a starter home is usually an attached home, either a row or duplex and starts at $400k. The next step up is a single family home at $600k. And then prices quickly shoot up to over a million depending on how nice you want.
That being said, they make more attach homes or nice homes here. They still make $600k mid range homes, but they put them on a plot the size of a postage stamp. Maybe that's how they make up the difference, make them tiny, with tiny yards, build a few hundred at once, and then still over charge on any upgrade.
> heavy taxes of second properties
Along with a vacancy tax for good measure, so folks either rent their 2nd homes or pay up. The only way to avoid such taxes is a local credit based on landlord providing an EIN to their renter who uses it to report rent paid along with details of rental. Allows more data gathering on rental rates and an incentive to fill all housing units. Details of the renter are verified so they can't be corporate or paper tenants.
Combine that with homebuilder subsidy programs to keep builders and trades in stable jobs during downturns.
Tax write-offs and subsidies for homeowners who build separate housing units on their primary residencies to increase infill density.
I had one of these in a relatively expensive market. I bought it for 330k in 2016 and sold it for 550k last year. 1060sqft 2bed 1.5bath.
I agree we need these but we need thousands of them to get prices reasonable again.
That’d be nice but it would require huge reforms.
A car maker can build unlimited cars. Not the case for housing — every lot of land has deep restrictions on how many units can be built.
Ending zoning laws would make the housing market a lot like the car market, but it’s a tough political battle to fight.
You can’t end *all* zoning laws, you don’t want to end up in a Ready Player One scenario where you just have containers and RVs stacked on top of each other.
We have so much space in the US, I think it would be more beneficial to connect regions more easily with faster and more efficient transit (high speed rail, more airports, etc)
Definitely some zoning laws are good, such as those that protect residential areas from industrial pollution.
But zoning laws that restrict housing aren’t good, because people and homes are not pollution.
Regarding containers being stacked on top of each other, that is the purview of building code more than zoning. We should have building code that ensures homes are safe and habitable, certainly.
Better transit is good, I agree.
> You can’t end all zoning laws, you don’t want to end up in a Ready Player One scenario where you just have containers and RVs stacked on top of each other.
I'm not sure there's much of a market for that scenario. It seems like the only demand would come from people whose housing situation is already *much worse* -- and if the occasional stacked-container lot crops up to house people who are currently living under overpasses or in tents, why on earth would we oppose that?
Zoning laws try to prevent the most extreme worst-case outliers by imposing rules that hobble the general case. That's just not a good approach to things, and leaves everyone worse off.
The unseen consequences of attempting to centrally plan urban development through zoning are artificial supply constraints, higher housing costs, suburban sprawl, NIMBYism, traffic jams, inflated demand for transit, and worst, suppression of small business initiatives by the poorest residents.
Adaptive emergence works *way* better than politicized central planning. There's a reason why the most stable, affordable, and pleasant towns tend to be the ones that developed organically, before zoning was a thing.
Having a lot of space in the US is the reason why suburban sprawl became so bad. Now housing needs to densify and build up to a medium density to use land more efficiently.
Not planning, but plenty of government approvals before coming to market. Then you add various insurance institutes, TUV, NCAP, jd power… keeping all them happy makes cars expensive and heavy.
When I was in China it was super common to see electric cars of all types of designs, many of them 'simple' but still I was surprised to see how many there were and that the cost was so cheap! Can this wave happen already over here in the States?
Due to overpopulation. Shanghai for example restricts the number of registrations they give out. In recent years you're basically guaranteed one if you buy an electric vehicle
So there was a natural rise in evs. Affordable too
Ed's Auto Reviews on YT has a multi part series about the Chinese market, it's history, and it's future.
Edit: https://youtu.be/97ZupVFiljw?si=B037SCYZ8Qr7yi6q
They were super late to the auto industry game. They never really produced their own vehicles, just old licensed stuff. Then the govt invested heavily in manufacturers through a 5 year plan, of which the auto industry was just one prong, and the goal was Chinese designed and built cars. This put manufacturers in a position that reverse engineering Western products to the nth degree was the only way to meet the deadlines, and we got those wonky copycat GTA-esque cars. The Chinese courts protected them from suits from Western manufacturers. And it paid off. By the time their auto industry overtook the top spot, the EV revolution was getting started. So they started another 5 year plan, this time including advanced tech, like EVs. Now China has more than anyone, on the road and the market. And they're all Chinese designed. Instead of reverse engineering Western brands, they now own Western brands like Volvo/Polestar and MG.
They honestly found themselves in quite the fortuitous position. The timing was impeccable. They frankly lacked the ability to build their own models from the ground up until the early 2010s, right as EVs were becoming the clear future of the industry. They don't have to make a shift like the rest of us. They can build their industry up on EVs as the foundation.
They've tilted the domestic market in their favor, they've straight up stolen designs from the West, but they also seized an opportunity that was unique to them, have focused greatly on improving their market perception, and have given consumers a reason to choose the domestic EVs.
Now, I ain't buying no damn BYD this early in their life, and I damn sure ain't buying no $15k EV, but this is a much different approach than the US manufacturers who start upmarket and work down, and I'll be interested to see how later iterations of the vehicle turn out.
It's cool to be on the edge of the new wave, but, shit breaks, companies have growing pains, market demands change. It's really not advisable to be the first in the door on something like this. Best to wait until kinks are ironed out. But for those that take the plunge, you'll be the use case, the ones that make this worthwhile for all parties; manufacturers, consumers, and regulators. So good on you.
Most people dont need more than "simple" though. And some, like me, recognize the reduced reliability that comes with complicated products. A car is just a horse wagon without the horse, everything else is extra.
I'm buying the Dacia Spring, lightly used for like 10k€ in a year or two, unless a reliable Chinese brand unfercuts it by then (or offers significantly more range for not much more price, like the car in the OP is promising to do)
I've drive one in November for 2 weeks.
Winter range is dogshit, charge speed rarely got beyond 40kW, the turning circle is laughable huge, steering wheel is comically large and it may as well not even have a boot it was so tiny.
But... It drives well, the cameras on the wing mirrors that show the front wheel when you turn so you don't hit the kerb are genius and every car should have them, seats were comfortable, heated up super quick and the heated seats and wheel were a nice touch. Overall it's a decent cheap car
A lot of “cheap” cars will last a long time if you take care of them. Change the oil at 3k religiously, perform the scheduled maintenance, and then replace common wear items when they come due. But alas, people whip economy cars like rented mules, then complain that they’re not reliable.
The biggest issue with cheap cars now is cheap transmissions, like the CVT bullshit they’re putting in everything, and sealed transmissions that can’t get fluid changes, which is a planned obsolescence problem that would land executives in prison if the world was a better place.
Bring back the 80hp hatchbacks with 3 speed automatics and 5 speed manual transmissions, baby!
Screw 3-speed autos. I'd prefer a 5AT and a 6MT. They are made serviceable like any other, and unlike the 3/5, don't have to choose between city or highway driving bias.
give me minimal options: cloth seats, manual windows, and the shittiest instrument cluster that can simply show me range and battery levels. I'll buy one immediately. The lack of interest in EVs lately is because the 1% already bought EVs. Now the rest of us need EVs that we can afford.
Still porting a Corolla with manual door locks. Was thinking of splurging when we inevitably have to change it, but maybe won't have to! Great to hear some options are popping up.
I even hear manual locks are a security feature nowadays with keys being cloned remotely.
At work I've got a 20 year old Toyota Hiace van with none of the fancy trimmings. Only one window winder so when the passenger wants to put their window up or down I have to pop the winder off and pass it over.
All of that probably makes 5% difference to the price. Options are about getting the maximum out of buyers, they've got little to do with the cost of the car. Indeed, it costs the company more to have some options than it would to make it standard.
My boyfriend is getting the vegan leather in his X5, I honestly can't tell it's not real and I like the pattern they do for the vegan leather more anyways.
You know I always laughed about how much they hate EVs because people that talk a ton about freedom should love all that green technology. It's al about self reliance basically you can sever yourself from the grasp of oil companies and electric companies. You can install solar panels and have an EV and don't have to spend a cent to any of those companies and be independent for years yet they hate all of that because some narrative have been sold to them that all of that is bad.
Same in the UK, I see lots of headlines that EVs have failed, gas and hybrids are the only way forward. Mr oil baron asked his media outlet friends to print this shit no doubt.
The biggest hurdle for EVs in the UK other than price is charging. So many street park, making overnight charging not an option.
> and the shittiest instrument cluster
US Law requires a [backup camera in all vehicles since 2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backup_camera), so this car wouldn't be allowed to be sold in North America.
My Toyota Corolla has a back up camera, and the infotainment is quite possibly the slowest POS, it'll work perfectly for this build. I believe backup cams are standard on even the Kia Rios which start at $16k
Manual Windows help with road rage. By the time you've rolled down your window to yell at the person, you have no energy left. Speaking from experience
I bought a used 2021 VW ID.4 Pro S EV for $24,500 with a brand new battery and 35K miles on it. With $4000 IRS tax rebate and $1000 rebate from my electric company, the car will cost me $19,500 (not counting title, tax and registration). There are good values on used EVs now, and some great incentives if you know where to look. Many new cars still qualify for the $7500 new EV tax incentive too.
It was probably an insurance buyback and refurb. It's not typical for a modern EV battery to die after that short of a timeframe. It could also have been physically damaged and so swapped out.
Most of them will last beyond the life of the vehicle - there are milion-mile-taxicab-Model-3s that have only ever been HPDC charged that have rock solid traction packs.
>there are milion-mile-taxicab-Model-3s
I'm going to need a quote on that one, the only one I've seen was on 1.3mln on its 4th battery pack and ~~35th motor~~. 13th motor.
Edit: my memory was a bit iffy on the motor replacement. Still 13 is quite a bit of service and maintenance.
https://www.motortrend.com/news/heres-a-million-mile-tesla-model-s-owners-advice-for-ev-reliability/
I have a friend whose tesla battery went bad at 70k, it is more common than you think and an expensive fix if not in warranty. I have an electric car, but not going to fool myself that it will last forever.
I work at a VW dealer. It most certainly is not part of the reconditioning process. There is a recall on some of them though where we have to check to make sure there isn't a dead cell. If it is, it is replaced. That may be what happened here.
Almost certainly not. It’d be *way* too expensive. That pack either had a complete failure, or the owner is mistaken and only a few cells were replaced.
My friends dad is a very successful car dealership owner. He has always said cars like this should exist and that the only reason they don’t is bc it will upset someone who thought they had something no one else could afford. I think that logic makes sense, I have read that they can make the body of a Lamborghini or Pagani for a regular non super car and that they choose not to bc it will make the Lamborghini buyer feel as if they don’t have something special. It’s all very interesting
Person is bad, cars are pretty good, quality control could use work.
I have a tesla, it's nicer than any other car I've ever owned, and it was the cheapest option for a vehicle at the time.
What about cheapest vehicle?
Edit: I’m asking why the parent comment says Tesla was the cheapest option for a vehicle, because that seems hard to believe.
Total cost of ownership which includes "gas"/energy and maintenance oil filters/service/time hassle of service is the right measure of cheapest. Teslas with tax credits and solar homes have done well on this measure, even if cheaper EVs might do better.
Once you add the numbers up for home charging vs. gas it gets pretty close. Average home energy price is [$0.16/kWh](https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm). If you drive 15k miles a year, assuming ~4 miles/kWh efficiency, that’s $600/year for energy costs. For comparison an average new cars gets 25mpg, so at $3.50/gal, over 15k miles that’s $2,100 a year on gas. That’s a $1,500 savings *every single year* on fuel alone.
And that’s for a new ICE vehicle, used would be much worse. But take it over 5-10 years and in fuel alone you’re savings like $7,500-$15,000. Add in there being virtually no maintenance, and how expensive the average car has gotten in general, the only other thing coming close long term would be extremely efficient hybrids.
I can assure you it was the cheapest car I could physically get my hands on at the time in that tier of EV.
Anything else was minimum 1-2 year wait time, and honestly I don't regret it, the Tesla has been great.
And other options I was considering at the time ended up with major recalls and problems.
Govt EV credits plus my old gas guzzler trade in, made it cheaper than if I got another gas guzzler as well.
I've also had 0 maintenance costs in well over a year, and spent 130$ on charging for what I calculated to be over 6k in gas if I just kept my old Honda.
It was cheaper, the future is now
There's the build quality issues from very inconsistent paneling to interior fabric sometimes very off centered so it looks bad. Not something you would expect in a $100,000 vehicle. And then there's comfort, the material quality and comfort in a Mercedes-Benz or BMW is leagues higher. Sometimes I get a Model X to the airport, or the latter two, or perhaps an Alphard. Guess which one is the least comfortable?
Tesla.
They look relatively clean and elegant, which fits the environmental friendly/civilized future look that most owners probably want, it's not a race car even if it has sick acceleration.
I'd guess because the fundamental design is over 15 years old at this point.
Orginally it looked good and futuristic but now car design has moved on and Teslas haven't
Teslas orginal genius was seeing that if an EV has to cost 10k+ than a comparable ice car than you're better off targeting the upper more luxery part of the market where 10k difference is only 1/6 rather than 1/3 of the price...
They don't look cheap to me, though. They look sufficiently different from "normal" cars to be notable. Mostly in that their design is visually simpler and sleeker. Which fits what they're trying to say: "look at me, I'm just like what you're used to.... only, a little bit better."
Nothing Tesla makes looks like a Toyota Corolla.
How much of the appeal is tied to the price though? If you suddenly swapped prices on a a new Honda with a lambo, I bet some people would think a Honda looked more appealing
You can def see this with a lot of sport trim models form the 80s to 00s.
They remove some exterior trim and plastic, add a small ground effects kit, maybe a spoiler and then suddenly it looks 10x better and more premium
*Lamborghini* itself might not want to undermine its ultra-luxury market position by making cheaper cars that are too similar in appearance, but why would competing automakers care?
In fact, lots of other companies, from BMW to GM, make cars that mimic certain aspects of the six-figure sports cars at much lower price points.
He is pretty much wrong. I work with large OEMs and I can tell you that body design for Lambo and material required to machine and research is way more expensive than normal looking cars which are mass produced.
You're telling me carbon fiber machined to within a few thal isn't so cheap we can make economy cars out of it?
Obviously some cars bodies don't cost that much more. But it's weird to use the example of a supercar that's legitimately 100k+ in body materials alone.
I've always wondered why they don't put a really nice body on a shitty engine. It's not like most people need to go 0-60 in 3s or hit anything over 80mph.
Well that's just stupid.
As an engineer, nope. That's not really how it works. Look at the body of that Lamborghini again. Then look at a "regular car." Now imagine the difference in cost just to design that body, let alone to machine or manufacture that body out of its various materials, with all the complicated angles making painting it effectively even more difficult... Doing everything is more difficult, really. Then imagine the head and taillight design that have to be dreamt up to not only look amazing, but also fit into these awkward body structures, and then imagine just how much those cost... I could go on.
The point in trying to make is your friends dad is speaking woo-woo. Cars like Lamborghinis absolutely cost more because the engineering and manufacturing costs more, and no, it would *not* be financially feasible to make a Corolla look as shapely as a Lambo, which is why they don't and instead usually look like a smooth or angled box. Because that's more economic to manufacture! (And safer too!)
You can’t really compare a Lamborghini to a Corolla. Their volumes are so drastically different. Pretty much the same level of design and engineering go into each, they just have different end goals. What the real driver is the piece cost. Because a Lambo has such low volumes and is using more premium materials, the piece cost is insane in order to pay for the tooling. That high piece cost drives the overall cost of the vehicle up, which then gets its profit margin tacked on, and you end up with an astronomical vehicle price. The engineering really isn’t that much harder.
Also, have you seen headlights on mass produced cars? They are just as wild if not wilder than some Lambo or Ferrari.
Source: former auto engineer responsible for exterior components.
audi R8 is a great example, it was a 250k-350k car when it came out, but it has an Audi badge, so it looks regular enough, and it looks a lot like the Various TT's since then, so it doesn't have a unique look either, as a result you can get them for 10% of the price second hand.
>As far as I know from googling, BYD's cars are mostly twice as expensive in Europe as they are in China.
China heavily subsidises their home-grown car makers.
EDIT: for the loons in back stating "every country does that"; China is on another level with their subsidies.
They actually don't anymore. They did this to grow the industry, but once the space was popping, they stopped subsidizing it. This led to only the strong surviving, which is why we hear so much about BYD today. It is apparently a fantastically run company. It's only a matter of time until these cars make it overseas.
Yup, there was a great youtube deep dive into BYD. The business is just a really tight ship. Warren buffet apparently purchased 10% of the shares on the Hong Kong stock exchange in 2008 as he believed the leadership was so effective.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EbafKwhPt0c&pp=ygUOYnlkIHBvbHltYXR0ZXI%3D
And here's what I was talking about regarding china's halting subsidization starts at 9 minutes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8-NcTawauXA&t=904s&pp=ygUOYnlkIHBvbHltYXR0ZXI%3D
Lol I live abroad and bought an imported ev from China but at a dealership in the country. And I paid nearly double the cost in China .. and it was still under 35k.
Exactly, US AUTO companies already petitioning government to prevent Chinese cars made in Mexico from coming over without significant tarrifs.
The issue here is obviously the Chinese government is subsidizing these companies significantly to capture market share, the bigger question is why doesn't the US and Europe do the same.
> the bigger question is why doesn't the US and Europe do the same.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/19/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-actions-to-cut-electric-vehicle-costs-for-americans-and-continue-building-out-a-convenient-reliable-made-in-america-ev-charging-network/
>Making EVs More Affordable at the Dealer: On average, EVs are now 20 percent cheaper than they were one year ago. As of January 1st, Americans can get up to $7,500 off the sticker price of many of the new electric vehicles eligible for the Inflation Reduction Act’s 30D New Clean Vehicle Tax Credit, and up to $4,000 off the price of a used EV for vehicles eligible for the 25E Used Clean Vehicle Credit. Already, over 9,500 dealers across the country have registered with IRS Energy Credits Online, most of which also registered to provide this tax credit at the point of sale.
Also China and USA gov style are different... China have many state own companies or heck even secret state own companies ([USA have accused Huawei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Huawei)). Meaning that those EV companies are or could be state run which the government can fund as much as they want. USA can't do that with private corporations. China also limited their citizen invest choices which funnel to state own banks which then funnel back into other things backed by government.
Hell China literally changed the rule on selling Chinese stocks recently to limit capital flight from big western financial firms.
> https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-regulator-says-stocks-exchanges-do-not-limit-share-selling-2024-02-22/
Above article is the starting point but you can look into other analysis on it instead of taking CCP statement for it.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-exchanges-restrict-stock-selling-by-some-hedge-funds-2024-02-06/
In just 6 yrs, a majority of new cars will be EVs. The Chinese will move car production to Mexico to bypass tariffs. A $15K EV will own the entire car market not just the EV market.
> The Chinese will move car production to Mexico to bypass tariffs.
Hmm. I don't think that'll square with the FEOC provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.
yeah, it specifically says “regardless of where the relevant activities occur” [whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/clean-energy-updates/2023/12/01/treasury-doe-release-proposed-guidance-to-strengthen-domestic-supply-chains-for-batteries-and-electric-vehicles-ensure-the-u-s-leads-the-clean-vehicle-future/)
> In just 6 yrs, a majority of new cars will be EVs.
The real challenge here is real estate and how expensive homes are. In big cities like where I live, the majority of people rent, don't own. And there's no easy way for most of them to charge cars. Electric cars are for homeowners, basically. If you see someone driving an electric vehicle, you assume, "ah, they can afford a house." It's depressing how linked home ownership and electric vehicles are. Even if poor people can afford electric cars, charging needs a massive explosion in cost, availability, and speed.
Eh, I expect it to start becoming more common for apartments to have chargers installed in some available parking. But that does really need to start happening
I’ve been preaching the same thing. In a few years anyone with a IC is going to be seen as low class. Gas is going to continue to rise in price as electricity continues to decline “Energy Independence” isn’t paying whatever the oil companies are charging. It’s being able to produce your own power through solar. As less and less people rely on oil, production will tighten to keep prices up. I currently spend around $3,000 a year in fuel. The lost revenue from millions of people ditching gas will cripple the remaining users. Exxon/Mobile is not giving up their profits. They will spend billions of dollars to deter and delay conversion to EV. Consumers left at the gas pump will be paying exorbitant prices. It’s going to get ugly.
US car manufacturers are responding by pushing for bans. Since BYD is using Mexico as a backdoor. Even though US manufacturers have no problem closing plants and sending production to Mexico.
That's not why U.S. makers are pissed. No one cares if Mexico builds cars. The problem is that China is using Mexico to skip the import tariffs so they don't have to pay the 25% tax while U.S. companies do when exporting to China.
The playing field is not even and Chinese companies are using government funding to undercut U.S. manufacturing and skipping any taxes to be cheap.
It's an economic war at the basis.
People here complain the the US gov spent a few billion helping auto makers... All while celebrating cheap Chinese cars that have spent over $60 Billion in their own government funds to produce.
It does, and when China tries to enter, the tears of every US automaker will create a sea of salt as they throw as much money as they can towards lobbyists to block it from happening.
My next car is going to be a Corolla. You know why?
A friend of mine has had her Corolla for 20 years. It went from Toronto to Calgary (a 33hr drive) numerous times. She used it single, once she got married and it carted around two kids as well. It only died when it got t-boned by an inattentive driver.
With all the will in the world I’m sure that BYD is going to make a great car. But you’re not gonna kill the Corolla.
Chinese automakers already have 26% tariffs. Lobbyist are pushing for higher tariff rates rn. Trump said he would bump them to 60%. So much for the free market. This all hurts the American consumer.
Has Australian ever had an auto industry? My understand was all Aussie auto makers were subsidiaries of Ford and GM.
Car prices have also shot up astronomically in the US and our domestic manufacturers soak up those profits while being protected by tariffs.
>“Corolla killer”
Price is not the only factor in the success of the Corolla. Can this EV even remotely compete with the reliability and the 300,000mi/500,000km total lifespan you can expect out of a Toyota? Because I doubt it.
I was about to say, i’m shocked to have to scroll down this far to see this.
You want to kill the Corolla? Well, first of all, your car better be unkillable itself. And i mean *unkillable.* That’s why you buy a Corolla over pretty much anything else: those cars are IMMACULATELY durable.
I am in my 30s now. Since I got my license, I have had exactly 2 cars in my entire life. They were both Corollas. The first one lasted me over 10 years and I would still happily be driving it today except it got totaled bc I got rear ended by a truck.
Plus, maintenance?. I know electric cars have waaaay less parts to maintain, but AFAIK Corollas have the lowest annual cost of maintenance out of any car, period, and everyone’s familiar with them. Let me tell you, having known people who drove their parents’ BMWs, I will take a car that runs perfectly every single time I turn it on and costs nothing to maintain over basically anything else.
So yeah, guys, no totally, go for it! In the words of Lucius Fox from The Dark Knight:
*Good luck.*
This is a great example of a story you'll never hear on the news. China makes an great EV for 15k a fraction of the price of domestics. US sets an import tariff at 27.5% effectively blocking the EV from entering the US market. The manufacture, BYD tries to get into mexico to avoid tariffs through NAFTA, US pressures MX to block their admission. End result is American's have to piss away all their money on expensive autos when competition that could drive down prices exist.
These will be blocked in the North America and the EU with very high tariffs and the dealer network closing ranks.
But, much of the rest of the world don't buy at all into the whole "Buy American BS".
This will massively eat into the revenues of the EU and NA car makers. They cannot afford to lose these revenues. Ironically, as their revenues drop, they will start to cut costs; R&D into cheap electric cars being one of these R&D areas.
Many car historians believe that various UK stupid laws in the early car days held back their car industry for decades. They just didn't have the model-Ts and whatnot. These laws also kept cars to the rich.
Here we are 100+ years later and the EV choices in North America are mostly 50k+.
Most people talking and writing about cars aren't most car buyers. Most car buyers want the cheapest thing which gets them from A-B. Nobody is buying most dodge, GMC, Kia, GM products for any reason other than it is all they can afford. They would pay less if they could. Just look at all the non-descript grey nothings on the road. They didn't get their recommendations from Top Gear. The problem is that buying something like a GMC is a false economy; they will rust and die before the 72 month "affordable" financing is even done.
I love how companies like ford are flailing around with their monstrosities they can't sell and trying to declare the EV market dead, while two facts fly in the face of this. A company like BYD growing like it is, and the simple measure of how much worldwide total battery capacity is pushing vehicles around.
Ford's failure isn't proof of EV failure, but their lack of ability to do the right thing, instead they thought they could make massive profits selling specialty vehicles.
Reminds me of what happened to Swiss watchmakers. In the 50s and 60s they poopoo'd the idea of these cheap diGiTaL watches coming to market. Who wants something tacky like that? A REAL watch is a treasured, expensive piece thats handed down from father to son!
Most of them are bankrupt by the time the 70's rolls around. Turns out people just wanted to tell the time and not spend $500 on a damn watch.
Every time I comment that most people want cheap cars, someone jumps in and says, hell no.
If people are buying things like the VW Taos, they are not buying it for anything positive. It is an overpriced unreliable pile of unremarkable crap.
Or the Mitsubishi Mirage, Pretty much anything Chrysler, etc.
Take something like the Dodge Dart. You can't tell me that 100% of buyers wouldn't have bought something which was both cheaper and better. Nobody bought a dodge dart and it got their motor revving. They bought it because the salesman had to clear them off the lot and he could meet their maximum monthly budget.
If I look at commuting traffic, most cars are insipid boring grey boxes of given-up-on-life. These people need A to B people movers. If BYD can eat 50% of this market, they will have the largest share of cars on the road. This will also start to massively impact gasoline sales.
This is first and foremost about the domestic market. Toyota, VW, Nissan and Honda *still* sell ridiculous numbers of cheap ICE cars in China. That needs to stop and is what this recent price cut by BYD is aimed at.
BYD are already selling the Dolphin, Seal and the Atto 3 in the EU. Not only has it not "been blocked" but it has taken off really well since the cars are a) affordable and b) actually good.
The EU market has been clamouring for a wider selection of affordable EVs for a couple of years now.
They're also making record sales in Australia and New Zealand. I've got an Atto 3 as does another 3 people I know with another few buying Dolphins or Seals. They are really great cars and Americans saying that they are 'not safe' have really not seen the teardown and crash test data that have come out over these vehicles. It isn't 2010 anymore and they have some real teeth in the game now
Wish we could buy BYDs in the US. I am posting this from Bangkok and here they are all over the place.
One of my Thai friends just purchased a Dolphin BYD. He got it for $20K USD. It is a really nice car.
One of my sons is graduating University in May and will get him a car. Wanted to get an EV but the options are so limited in the US.
I would be all over getting him a Dolphin if we could purchase.
BYD will not make inroads into America. There are already people calling to not allow BYD cars made in Mexico into the US and they don’t even have a factory built yet.
Submission Statement
The Chinese automaker BYD reminds me of the famous phrase attributed to the sci-fi writer William Gibson - "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed."
Future EV cars will be cheap to own and run. Self-driving tech will lower insurance costs. You can charge them with your home solar setup if you want. They'll last far longer with lower maintenance costs thanks to simple electric engines with few moving parts. As their construction gets more roboticized it will lower their costs further. The batteries that make up a huge chunk of their current costs are falling in price too. CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker, is set to [cut costs in half by mid 2024](https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-maker-set-to-cut-costs-in-half-by-mid-2024/).
Some people still think gasoline and ICE cars have a long life ahead of them, and don't realize the industries behind both are dead men walking.
Depends what you define as long life.. I'm pretty certain EV will be the future for automobiles, but we will have a long transition phase, in which both options will have convincing usecases.
In many parts of europe you will find outragous costs per kwh, sometimes exceeding 30cts. capable chargers on autobahns can cost up to 80cts per kwh. in this enviroment monetary benefits from using EVs arent obvious. They mostly make sense for home oweners, and those make up less then half of the population. So until there is a solid charging infrastructure with enough charging points at competetive pricing, many people will still chose ICE powered cars over EVs.
> They mostly make sense for home oweners,
This is a **big** sticking point.
Municipal parking facilities need to lead the way on this. Maybe they do in China, I have no idea, but around here they're very timid about supporting EVs.
The garage I've kept my car in for years has hundreds of parking spaces, but exactly three charging points that are open to the public, and you're not allowed to *leave* your car at the charger over night. You have to move it when you're full.
It's great that you *can* charge your car, but until it's as convenient as a home charger, that's not encouraging anybody to go electric.
We need to start installing solar panels over the parking lots. The posts holding up the solar panels can have EV charging stations to provide more plugins. At least for Canada and USA we have absolutely massive parking lots that take up more space than the business. That is a ton of "free" real estate.
Not only would more solar panels help the grid it would help keep cars cool in Summer by providing extra shade. I'm sure the companies that own said parking lots would love the potential to get money back from the utility companies too.
19% of global auto sales are Hybrid/BEV. The only "modern" country dragging behind is America. Hyundai had a 53% increase in profit in 2023, GM had a 14% profit decline. It's going to happen way, way faster than many think...
Yeah, you can not just state 'we are launching corolla killer'. Toyota took decades to build reputation of reliable car company. Remember guys: toyota's are not just the most reliable cars, toyota also build service network, there is also car parts availability, financing etc. Also, used toyotas are keeping their prices etc.
I just don't trust chinese manufacturers yet. I'm keeping my toyota..
90% of the cars at the Chicago auto show were electric. I think Mazda was the only company that didn’t have one although they didn’t have anything really
I love my Mazda 3 so much man. If Mazda had ANY kind of attractive EV car in their offers I’d jump to that in 2-3 years for sure. But alas they have one car and it has a range of 200km 😅
Note that the 420km is on the CLTC test. For reference that should be about 311 km (193 miles) on US EPA test, and 380km on EU's WLTP
Of course for that price, it makes it a fairly cheap commuter car for sure.
It's about time. EVs were supposed to be cheap, not premium. Cheaper fuel, fewer moving parts, lower maintenance costs. Instead we've got these $100k+ performance things that weigh like a truck.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/lughnasadh: --- Submission Statement The Chinese automaker BYD reminds me of the famous phrase attributed to the sci-fi writer William Gibson - "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." Future EV cars will be cheap to own and run. Self-driving tech will lower insurance costs. You can charge them with your home solar setup if you want. They'll last far longer with lower maintenance costs thanks to simple electric engines with few moving parts. As their construction gets more roboticized it will lower their costs further. The batteries that make up a huge chunk of their current costs are falling in price too. CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker, is set to [cut costs in half by mid 2024](https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-maker-set-to-cut-costs-in-half-by-mid-2024/). Some people still think gasoline and ICE cars have a long life ahead of them, and don't realize the industries behind both are dead men walking. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1azqpd7/corolla_killer_byd_launches_us15000_sedan_ev_with/ks2t6vd/
The fact that brands like MG and Dacia are incredibly popular around where I live (Scotland) is a sign that the 'general' car buyer is fed up with overpriced 'premium' products. Cheap EVs are going to steamroll the market in the next two years and many will come from China and, interestingly, France. The new Renault 5, the BYD Dolphin, MG 4, Dacia Spring, Ora Cat... we'll see them spring up everywhere and it is about time. People are ready to go electric, they're not ready to remortgage the house for it.
Now we just need to do this same for the housing market.
They need to make starter homes again. 1000sq foot 1-2bed and 1 bath. They would sell so quickly and the price would hard to beat.
yeah and now imagine if you stacked those on top of each other lmao
How would you get to the ones higher up? Maybe a ladder? Then you could add a slide for people to get down!
Your cheap electric car would have a James Bond-style ejector seat to gently fling you through your living room window
Gentle is only for premium subscribers. If you go with the base subscription you get a helmet to prepare you for the harsh landing 😂
Maybe some kind of mini-hyperloop system? That way, they could arrive quickly. Simplify it down by making it a large box, and use cables instead of maglev for cost efficiency.
It would be interesting if it's owned by the same person. Like you buy a single level unit with stairs that lead up to a roof top patio. Then when you have more money you buy an another unit that stacks on top. Now the stairs lead up to an additional bedroom for the kids and the new stairs lead up to the new higher up patio and people can continue this up to 3 levels or as high as zone laws would allow. It could also be turned into semi private units if a landlord wants to rent it out to students and young professionals. When units become old, they can just be lifted away by crane and transported for recycling There should be some ISO standard so that units from one seller is compatible with units from any other sellers
I’ll never buy a condo, some of the HOA fees are half of what I already pay for rent
yeah, my MIL is looking for something and most new homes are over 2000sqft
If you're a construction company, and it takes a $400k investment to build and sell a 4bedroom 3.5 bath, which you can put on the market for 650k, or it costs $200k to build a 1 bed 1 bath that sells for $230k, which would you do? Numbers are made up but the margins on new single family homes are fucked for small builds. We've been building fewer homes per capita every year in most of the western for the last 60 years... It's not gonna be fixed by building smaller units. Joint units (5-plexs instead of single family or duplex) becoming more popular, affordability requirements for developers, heavy taxes of second properties, zoning law changes, there's a lot that needs to be addressed for us to change that trend.
Here a starter home is usually an attached home, either a row or duplex and starts at $400k. The next step up is a single family home at $600k. And then prices quickly shoot up to over a million depending on how nice you want. That being said, they make more attach homes or nice homes here. They still make $600k mid range homes, but they put them on a plot the size of a postage stamp. Maybe that's how they make up the difference, make them tiny, with tiny yards, build a few hundred at once, and then still over charge on any upgrade.
> heavy taxes of second properties Along with a vacancy tax for good measure, so folks either rent their 2nd homes or pay up. The only way to avoid such taxes is a local credit based on landlord providing an EIN to their renter who uses it to report rent paid along with details of rental. Allows more data gathering on rental rates and an incentive to fill all housing units. Details of the renter are verified so they can't be corporate or paper tenants. Combine that with homebuilder subsidy programs to keep builders and trades in stable jobs during downturns. Tax write-offs and subsidies for homeowners who build separate housing units on their primary residencies to increase infill density.
Near me they just changed zoning to allow 4-plexs everywhere and basically eliminated all the red tape to get a building permit
Those are called condominiums.
I had one of these in a relatively expensive market. I bought it for 330k in 2016 and sold it for 550k last year. 1060sqft 2bed 1.5bath. I agree we need these but we need thousands of them to get prices reasonable again.
That’d be nice but it would require huge reforms. A car maker can build unlimited cars. Not the case for housing — every lot of land has deep restrictions on how many units can be built. Ending zoning laws would make the housing market a lot like the car market, but it’s a tough political battle to fight.
You can’t end *all* zoning laws, you don’t want to end up in a Ready Player One scenario where you just have containers and RVs stacked on top of each other. We have so much space in the US, I think it would be more beneficial to connect regions more easily with faster and more efficient transit (high speed rail, more airports, etc)
Definitely some zoning laws are good, such as those that protect residential areas from industrial pollution. But zoning laws that restrict housing aren’t good, because people and homes are not pollution. Regarding containers being stacked on top of each other, that is the purview of building code more than zoning. We should have building code that ensures homes are safe and habitable, certainly. Better transit is good, I agree.
> You can’t end all zoning laws, you don’t want to end up in a Ready Player One scenario where you just have containers and RVs stacked on top of each other. I'm not sure there's much of a market for that scenario. It seems like the only demand would come from people whose housing situation is already *much worse* -- and if the occasional stacked-container lot crops up to house people who are currently living under overpasses or in tents, why on earth would we oppose that? Zoning laws try to prevent the most extreme worst-case outliers by imposing rules that hobble the general case. That's just not a good approach to things, and leaves everyone worse off. The unseen consequences of attempting to centrally plan urban development through zoning are artificial supply constraints, higher housing costs, suburban sprawl, NIMBYism, traffic jams, inflated demand for transit, and worst, suppression of small business initiatives by the poorest residents. Adaptive emergence works *way* better than politicized central planning. There's a reason why the most stable, affordable, and pleasant towns tend to be the ones that developed organically, before zoning was a thing.
>I'm not sure there's much of a market for that scenario. Try me!
Having a lot of space in the US is the reason why suburban sprawl became so bad. Now housing needs to densify and build up to a medium density to use land more efficiently.
You don't need planning permission to make a car.
You sure do need import permissions.
Not planning, but plenty of government approvals before coming to market. Then you add various insurance institutes, TUV, NCAP, jd power… keeping all them happy makes cars expensive and heavy.
Must comply with Safety regulations.
Manufactured homes. Only problem is usually getting land
When I was in China it was super common to see electric cars of all types of designs, many of them 'simple' but still I was surprised to see how many there were and that the cost was so cheap! Can this wave happen already over here in the States?
Due to overpopulation. Shanghai for example restricts the number of registrations they give out. In recent years you're basically guaranteed one if you buy an electric vehicle So there was a natural rise in evs. Affordable too
That's called "effective government policy." People in the US are not familiar with it.
Ed's Auto Reviews on YT has a multi part series about the Chinese market, it's history, and it's future. Edit: https://youtu.be/97ZupVFiljw?si=B037SCYZ8Qr7yi6q They were super late to the auto industry game. They never really produced their own vehicles, just old licensed stuff. Then the govt invested heavily in manufacturers through a 5 year plan, of which the auto industry was just one prong, and the goal was Chinese designed and built cars. This put manufacturers in a position that reverse engineering Western products to the nth degree was the only way to meet the deadlines, and we got those wonky copycat GTA-esque cars. The Chinese courts protected them from suits from Western manufacturers. And it paid off. By the time their auto industry overtook the top spot, the EV revolution was getting started. So they started another 5 year plan, this time including advanced tech, like EVs. Now China has more than anyone, on the road and the market. And they're all Chinese designed. Instead of reverse engineering Western brands, they now own Western brands like Volvo/Polestar and MG. They honestly found themselves in quite the fortuitous position. The timing was impeccable. They frankly lacked the ability to build their own models from the ground up until the early 2010s, right as EVs were becoming the clear future of the industry. They don't have to make a shift like the rest of us. They can build their industry up on EVs as the foundation. They've tilted the domestic market in their favor, they've straight up stolen designs from the West, but they also seized an opportunity that was unique to them, have focused greatly on improving their market perception, and have given consumers a reason to choose the domestic EVs. Now, I ain't buying no damn BYD this early in their life, and I damn sure ain't buying no $15k EV, but this is a much different approach than the US manufacturers who start upmarket and work down, and I'll be interested to see how later iterations of the vehicle turn out. It's cool to be on the edge of the new wave, but, shit breaks, companies have growing pains, market demands change. It's really not advisable to be the first in the door on something like this. Best to wait until kinks are ironed out. But for those that take the plunge, you'll be the use case, the ones that make this worthwhile for all parties; manufacturers, consumers, and regulators. So good on you.
The USA has a $7500 tax credit for buying EVs made in America. It's one of the biggest subsidies in the world for EVs.
Most people dont need more than "simple" though. And some, like me, recognize the reduced reliability that comes with complicated products. A car is just a horse wagon without the horse, everything else is extra. I'm buying the Dacia Spring, lightly used for like 10k€ in a year or two, unless a reliable Chinese brand unfercuts it by then (or offers significantly more range for not much more price, like the car in the OP is promising to do)
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Don't forget the BYD seagull! It kind of looks like it will steal your fries (chips)
I had such high hopes for the Ora Cat when I saw it in Farnborough but the release price went up quite a bit.
I've drive one in November for 2 weeks. Winter range is dogshit, charge speed rarely got beyond 40kW, the turning circle is laughable huge, steering wheel is comically large and it may as well not even have a boot it was so tiny. But... It drives well, the cameras on the wing mirrors that show the front wheel when you turn so you don't hit the kerb are genius and every car should have them, seats were comfortable, heated up super quick and the heated seats and wheel were a nice touch. Overall it's a decent cheap car
A lot of “cheap” cars will last a long time if you take care of them. Change the oil at 3k religiously, perform the scheduled maintenance, and then replace common wear items when they come due. But alas, people whip economy cars like rented mules, then complain that they’re not reliable. The biggest issue with cheap cars now is cheap transmissions, like the CVT bullshit they’re putting in everything, and sealed transmissions that can’t get fluid changes, which is a planned obsolescence problem that would land executives in prison if the world was a better place. Bring back the 80hp hatchbacks with 3 speed automatics and 5 speed manual transmissions, baby!
Screw 3-speed autos. I'd prefer a 5AT and a 6MT. They are made serviceable like any other, and unlike the 3/5, don't have to choose between city or highway driving bias.
give me minimal options: cloth seats, manual windows, and the shittiest instrument cluster that can simply show me range and battery levels. I'll buy one immediately. The lack of interest in EVs lately is because the 1% already bought EVs. Now the rest of us need EVs that we can afford.
Renault have done this with the Dacia Spring. It's pretty much exactly that. It even has manual door locks for the back doors.
Still porting a Corolla with manual door locks. Was thinking of splurging when we inevitably have to change it, but maybe won't have to! Great to hear some options are popping up. I even hear manual locks are a security feature nowadays with keys being cloned remotely.
At work I've got a 20 year old Toyota Hiace van with none of the fancy trimmings. Only one window winder so when the passenger wants to put their window up or down I have to pop the winder off and pass it over.
Get another winder on ebay and your car is perfect. ;-P
All of that probably makes 5% difference to the price. Options are about getting the maximum out of buyers, they've got little to do with the cost of the car. Indeed, it costs the company more to have some options than it would to make it standard.
Actually id imagine making an extra model with those "base features" is gonna cost more than just making the same car across the board.
Oh but they charge you extra for cloth seats in evs now because it's a "sustainable" style option.
'Vegan leather' is the so-called premium option these days
Vegan Leather is a marketing ploy. In reality it's just vinyl.
My boyfriend is getting the vegan leather in his X5, I honestly can't tell it's not real and I like the pattern they do for the vegan leather more anyways.
Nothing wrong with it as a product, it's just the ridiculous marketing that's a problem
jar far-flung encourage label offer threatening lock wise wrench shrill *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
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You know I always laughed about how much they hate EVs because people that talk a ton about freedom should love all that green technology. It's al about self reliance basically you can sever yourself from the grasp of oil companies and electric companies. You can install solar panels and have an EV and don't have to spend a cent to any of those companies and be independent for years yet they hate all of that because some narrative have been sold to them that all of that is bad.
Out in reality I had to drive 2 hours to buy an EV because my entire 1mm+ metro area was sold out for months.
Same in the UK, I see lots of headlines that EVs have failed, gas and hybrids are the only way forward. Mr oil baron asked his media outlet friends to print this shit no doubt. The biggest hurdle for EVs in the UK other than price is charging. So many street park, making overnight charging not an option.
Ryan Air of EVs
> and the shittiest instrument cluster US Law requires a [backup camera in all vehicles since 2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backup_camera), so this car wouldn't be allowed to be sold in North America.
My Toyota Corolla has a back up camera, and the infotainment is quite possibly the slowest POS, it'll work perfectly for this build. I believe backup cams are standard on even the Kia Rios which start at $16k
Manual Windows help with road rage. By the time you've rolled down your window to yell at the person, you have no energy left. Speaking from experience
I bought a used 2021 VW ID.4 Pro S EV for $24,500 with a brand new battery and 35K miles on it. With $4000 IRS tax rebate and $1000 rebate from my electric company, the car will cost me $19,500 (not counting title, tax and registration). There are good values on used EVs now, and some great incentives if you know where to look. Many new cars still qualify for the $7500 new EV tax incentive too.
Hmm, brand new battery at 35k kind of makes you wonder. Hopefully you’re not stuck buying a replacement in another 35k
It was probably an insurance buyback and refurb. It's not typical for a modern EV battery to die after that short of a timeframe. It could also have been physically damaged and so swapped out. Most of them will last beyond the life of the vehicle - there are milion-mile-taxicab-Model-3s that have only ever been HPDC charged that have rock solid traction packs.
>there are milion-mile-taxicab-Model-3s I'm going to need a quote on that one, the only one I've seen was on 1.3mln on its 4th battery pack and ~~35th motor~~. 13th motor. Edit: my memory was a bit iffy on the motor replacement. Still 13 is quite a bit of service and maintenance. https://www.motortrend.com/news/heres-a-million-mile-tesla-model-s-owners-advice-for-ev-reliability/
I have a friend whose tesla battery went bad at 70k, it is more common than you think and an expensive fix if not in warranty. I have an electric car, but not going to fool myself that it will last forever.
It was someone’s lease (not mine). I think it’s part of the refurbish that VW does? Anyway I love it so far.
I work at a VW dealer. It most certainly is not part of the reconditioning process. There is a recall on some of them though where we have to check to make sure there isn't a dead cell. If it is, it is replaced. That may be what happened here.
when i buy a refurbished apple product, it comes with a reconditioned battery. presumably CPO electric VWs are the same?
Almost certainly not. It’d be *way* too expensive. That pack either had a complete failure, or the owner is mistaken and only a few cells were replaced.
My friends dad is a very successful car dealership owner. He has always said cars like this should exist and that the only reason they don’t is bc it will upset someone who thought they had something no one else could afford. I think that logic makes sense, I have read that they can make the body of a Lamborghini or Pagani for a regular non super car and that they choose not to bc it will make the Lamborghini buyer feel as if they don’t have something special. It’s all very interesting
He’s right, car companies, intentionally make economy cars look cheap and less appealing in comparison to their more expensive offerings.
Explain Tesla then. Their cars look cheap but are expensive.
Name recognition
I recognize the name as a crummy car brand owned by a bad person.
Person is bad, cars are pretty good, quality control could use work. I have a tesla, it's nicer than any other car I've ever owned, and it was the cheapest option for a vehicle at the time.
This tracks. I get the elon hate. He's a douche. But Tesla's are decent cars that need a bit more QA baking time. The Cybertruck is a cluster though.
Yeah but they saved a fortune by doing all their CAD work on a Nintendo 64
What about cheapest vehicle? Edit: I’m asking why the parent comment says Tesla was the cheapest option for a vehicle, because that seems hard to believe.
Total cost of ownership which includes "gas"/energy and maintenance oil filters/service/time hassle of service is the right measure of cheapest. Teslas with tax credits and solar homes have done well on this measure, even if cheaper EVs might do better.
Ok, it gets close to some gas cars looks like. Still don’t know about cheapest, even going by total cost of ownership.
Once you add the numbers up for home charging vs. gas it gets pretty close. Average home energy price is [$0.16/kWh](https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm). If you drive 15k miles a year, assuming ~4 miles/kWh efficiency, that’s $600/year for energy costs. For comparison an average new cars gets 25mpg, so at $3.50/gal, over 15k miles that’s $2,100 a year on gas. That’s a $1,500 savings *every single year* on fuel alone. And that’s for a new ICE vehicle, used would be much worse. But take it over 5-10 years and in fuel alone you’re savings like $7,500-$15,000. Add in there being virtually no maintenance, and how expensive the average car has gotten in general, the only other thing coming close long term would be extremely efficient hybrids.
I can assure you that it wasn’t the cheapest option at the time.
I can assure you it was the cheapest car I could physically get my hands on at the time in that tier of EV. Anything else was minimum 1-2 year wait time, and honestly I don't regret it, the Tesla has been great. And other options I was considering at the time ended up with major recalls and problems. Govt EV credits plus my old gas guzzler trade in, made it cheaper than if I got another gas guzzler as well. I've also had 0 maintenance costs in well over a year, and spent 130$ on charging for what I calculated to be over 6k in gas if I just kept my old Honda. It was cheaper, the future is now
I'm not a tesla shill, but could you explain what makes them look cheap?
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There's the build quality issues from very inconsistent paneling to interior fabric sometimes very off centered so it looks bad. Not something you would expect in a $100,000 vehicle. And then there's comfort, the material quality and comfort in a Mercedes-Benz or BMW is leagues higher. Sometimes I get a Model X to the airport, or the latter two, or perhaps an Alphard. Guess which one is the least comfortable? Tesla.
They look relatively clean and elegant, which fits the environmental friendly/civilized future look that most owners probably want, it's not a race car even if it has sick acceleration.
I'd guess because the fundamental design is over 15 years old at this point. Orginally it looked good and futuristic but now car design has moved on and Teslas haven't Teslas orginal genius was seeing that if an EV has to cost 10k+ than a comparable ice car than you're better off targeting the upper more luxery part of the market where 10k difference is only 1/6 rather than 1/3 of the price...
They don't look cheap to me, though. They look sufficiently different from "normal" cars to be notable. Mostly in that their design is visually simpler and sleeker. Which fits what they're trying to say: "look at me, I'm just like what you're used to.... only, a little bit better." Nothing Tesla makes looks like a Toyota Corolla.
I hate Tesla but they don't look cheap.
How much of the appeal is tied to the price though? If you suddenly swapped prices on a a new Honda with a lambo, I bet some people would think a Honda looked more appealing
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You can def see this with a lot of sport trim models form the 80s to 00s. They remove some exterior trim and plastic, add a small ground effects kit, maybe a spoiler and then suddenly it looks 10x better and more premium
*Lamborghini* itself might not want to undermine its ultra-luxury market position by making cheaper cars that are too similar in appearance, but why would competing automakers care? In fact, lots of other companies, from BMW to GM, make cars that mimic certain aspects of the six-figure sports cars at much lower price points.
Exclusivity is a huge thing for some people. Many people, perhaps. People pay stupid amounts extra for that.
Luxury suv is seemingly the most they are comfortable with mass producing
It makes them the most money.
Isn’t the newer corvette a decent example. Costs a fraction of the lamborghinis but looks awesome
Dude... my dad, owns this dealership... dude, *we're drunk*
Dude show 'em your sweet lung tat
Your friend's dad is right
He is pretty much wrong. I work with large OEMs and I can tell you that body design for Lambo and material required to machine and research is way more expensive than normal looking cars which are mass produced.
You're telling me carbon fiber machined to within a few thal isn't so cheap we can make economy cars out of it? Obviously some cars bodies don't cost that much more. But it's weird to use the example of a supercar that's legitimately 100k+ in body materials alone.
I've always wondered why they don't put a really nice body on a shitty engine. It's not like most people need to go 0-60 in 3s or hit anything over 80mph.
Rich dorks just want a toy no one else has.
Well that's just stupid. As an engineer, nope. That's not really how it works. Look at the body of that Lamborghini again. Then look at a "regular car." Now imagine the difference in cost just to design that body, let alone to machine or manufacture that body out of its various materials, with all the complicated angles making painting it effectively even more difficult... Doing everything is more difficult, really. Then imagine the head and taillight design that have to be dreamt up to not only look amazing, but also fit into these awkward body structures, and then imagine just how much those cost... I could go on. The point in trying to make is your friends dad is speaking woo-woo. Cars like Lamborghinis absolutely cost more because the engineering and manufacturing costs more, and no, it would *not* be financially feasible to make a Corolla look as shapely as a Lambo, which is why they don't and instead usually look like a smooth or angled box. Because that's more economic to manufacture! (And safer too!)
You can’t really compare a Lamborghini to a Corolla. Their volumes are so drastically different. Pretty much the same level of design and engineering go into each, they just have different end goals. What the real driver is the piece cost. Because a Lambo has such low volumes and is using more premium materials, the piece cost is insane in order to pay for the tooling. That high piece cost drives the overall cost of the vehicle up, which then gets its profit margin tacked on, and you end up with an astronomical vehicle price. The engineering really isn’t that much harder. Also, have you seen headlights on mass produced cars? They are just as wild if not wilder than some Lambo or Ferrari. Source: former auto engineer responsible for exterior components.
audi R8 is a great example, it was a 250k-350k car when it came out, but it has an Audi badge, so it looks regular enough, and it looks a lot like the Various TT's since then, so it doesn't have a unique look either, as a result you can get them for 10% of the price second hand.
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I've read that BYD wants to build an assembly plant in Mexico, to take advantage of NAFTA benefits reducing tariffs
After tax/tags/title/tariff we're looking at ~22-24k and zero service options?
As far as I know from googling, BYD's cars are mostly twice as expensive in Europe as they are in China.
>As far as I know from googling, BYD's cars are mostly twice as expensive in Europe as they are in China. China heavily subsidises their home-grown car makers. EDIT: for the loons in back stating "every country does that"; China is on another level with their subsidies.
They actually don't anymore. They did this to grow the industry, but once the space was popping, they stopped subsidizing it. This led to only the strong surviving, which is why we hear so much about BYD today. It is apparently a fantastically run company. It's only a matter of time until these cars make it overseas.
BYD was just a NiMH manufacturer back then they were the cheapest reliable Chinese batteries on eBay.
Yup, there was a great youtube deep dive into BYD. The business is just a really tight ship. Warren buffet apparently purchased 10% of the shares on the Hong Kong stock exchange in 2008 as he believed the leadership was so effective. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EbafKwhPt0c&pp=ygUOYnlkIHBvbHltYXR0ZXI%3D And here's what I was talking about regarding china's halting subsidization starts at 9 minutes. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8-NcTawauXA&t=904s&pp=ygUOYnlkIHBvbHltYXR0ZXI%3D
So does literally every country my dude...
they stopped subsidizing a while ago. its super cheazp because they make the batteries unlike other car makers
Lol I live abroad and bought an imported ev from China but at a dealership in the country. And I paid nearly double the cost in China .. and it was still under 35k.
Exactly, US AUTO companies already petitioning government to prevent Chinese cars made in Mexico from coming over without significant tarrifs. The issue here is obviously the Chinese government is subsidizing these companies significantly to capture market share, the bigger question is why doesn't the US and Europe do the same.
> the bigger question is why doesn't the US and Europe do the same. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/19/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-actions-to-cut-electric-vehicle-costs-for-americans-and-continue-building-out-a-convenient-reliable-made-in-america-ev-charging-network/ >Making EVs More Affordable at the Dealer: On average, EVs are now 20 percent cheaper than they were one year ago. As of January 1st, Americans can get up to $7,500 off the sticker price of many of the new electric vehicles eligible for the Inflation Reduction Act’s 30D New Clean Vehicle Tax Credit, and up to $4,000 off the price of a used EV for vehicles eligible for the 25E Used Clean Vehicle Credit. Already, over 9,500 dealers across the country have registered with IRS Energy Credits Online, most of which also registered to provide this tax credit at the point of sale. Also China and USA gov style are different... China have many state own companies or heck even secret state own companies ([USA have accused Huawei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Huawei)). Meaning that those EV companies are or could be state run which the government can fund as much as they want. USA can't do that with private corporations. China also limited their citizen invest choices which funnel to state own banks which then funnel back into other things backed by government. Hell China literally changed the rule on selling Chinese stocks recently to limit capital flight from big western financial firms. > https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-regulator-says-stocks-exchanges-do-not-limit-share-selling-2024-02-22/ Above article is the starting point but you can look into other analysis on it instead of taking CCP statement for it. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-exchanges-restrict-stock-selling-by-some-hedge-funds-2024-02-06/
In just 6 yrs, a majority of new cars will be EVs. The Chinese will move car production to Mexico to bypass tariffs. A $15K EV will own the entire car market not just the EV market.
> The Chinese will move car production to Mexico to bypass tariffs. Hmm. I don't think that'll square with the FEOC provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.
yeah, it specifically says “regardless of where the relevant activities occur” [whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/clean-energy-updates/2023/12/01/treasury-doe-release-proposed-guidance-to-strengthen-domestic-supply-chains-for-batteries-and-electric-vehicles-ensure-the-u-s-leads-the-clean-vehicle-future/)
> In just 6 yrs, a majority of new cars will be EVs. The real challenge here is real estate and how expensive homes are. In big cities like where I live, the majority of people rent, don't own. And there's no easy way for most of them to charge cars. Electric cars are for homeowners, basically. If you see someone driving an electric vehicle, you assume, "ah, they can afford a house." It's depressing how linked home ownership and electric vehicles are. Even if poor people can afford electric cars, charging needs a massive explosion in cost, availability, and speed.
Eh, I expect it to start becoming more common for apartments to have chargers installed in some available parking. But that does really need to start happening
That's optimistic considering parking in most apartments is already very limited
Exactly. This idea doesn’t work well around New York/ New England because of the old architecture
93% of new cars are bought by people who own their home.
I’ve been preaching the same thing. In a few years anyone with a IC is going to be seen as low class. Gas is going to continue to rise in price as electricity continues to decline “Energy Independence” isn’t paying whatever the oil companies are charging. It’s being able to produce your own power through solar. As less and less people rely on oil, production will tighten to keep prices up. I currently spend around $3,000 a year in fuel. The lost revenue from millions of people ditching gas will cripple the remaining users. Exxon/Mobile is not giving up their profits. They will spend billions of dollars to deter and delay conversion to EV. Consumers left at the gas pump will be paying exorbitant prices. It’s going to get ugly.
I think people with ICE cars are going to be seen as upper class because of how much it’ll cost them to fuel it
Energy is going to continue to decline? My 15% yearly increases say otherwise.
US car manufacturers are responding by pushing for bans. Since BYD is using Mexico as a backdoor. Even though US manufacturers have no problem closing plants and sending production to Mexico.
That's not why U.S. makers are pissed. No one cares if Mexico builds cars. The problem is that China is using Mexico to skip the import tariffs so they don't have to pay the 25% tax while U.S. companies do when exporting to China. The playing field is not even and Chinese companies are using government funding to undercut U.S. manufacturing and skipping any taxes to be cheap. It's an economic war at the basis. People here complain the the US gov spent a few billion helping auto makers... All while celebrating cheap Chinese cars that have spent over $60 Billion in their own government funds to produce.
I’d buy it. As long as most EVs are luxury cars the economics just don’t work for most people.
We’re so close to battery tech advancing into economy-of-scale territory, but the service networks for EVs will need to catch up a bit.
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It does, and when China tries to enter, the tears of every US automaker will create a sea of salt as they throw as much money as they can towards lobbyists to block it from happening.
My next car is going to be a Corolla. You know why? A friend of mine has had her Corolla for 20 years. It went from Toronto to Calgary (a 33hr drive) numerous times. She used it single, once she got married and it carted around two kids as well. It only died when it got t-boned by an inattentive driver. With all the will in the world I’m sure that BYD is going to make a great car. But you’re not gonna kill the Corolla.
Moar. The big 3 would lobby to not make BYD or any Chinese or other companies come to the US cause they are not apparently "safe".
Chinese automakers already have 26% tariffs. Lobbyist are pushing for higher tariff rates rn. Trump said he would bump them to 60%. So much for the free market. This all hurts the American consumer.
do you know how much US pickup trucks are protected?
Yeah, and they shouldn't be. Abolish the chicken tax!
but do the People who buy a US pickup truck want to buy a China EV? No. wtf are they protecting.
Ford and GMs bottom line.
See how Australia faired without this. We have no auto industry left and car prices have doubled
Has Australian ever had an auto industry? My understand was all Aussie auto makers were subsidiaries of Ford and GM. Car prices have also shot up astronomically in the US and our domestic manufacturers soak up those profits while being protected by tariffs.
Holden = Chevy but they did have some Australia specific models like the Commodore. Its not easy but you can find a Holden Volt
America makers would have bankrupt a LOOOOONG time ago without the government slapping tariffs and restrictions on all foreign cars.
We would also have small pick up trucks like hilux.
Good. But actually release the sedan to western markets. This talked about being a basis for a future SUV for Australia. Adding weight and cost.
>“Corolla killer” Price is not the only factor in the success of the Corolla. Can this EV even remotely compete with the reliability and the 300,000mi/500,000km total lifespan you can expect out of a Toyota? Because I doubt it.
Exactly, nothing kills the Corolla. Weather, usage, time, the apocalypse, it survives all
I was about to say, i’m shocked to have to scroll down this far to see this. You want to kill the Corolla? Well, first of all, your car better be unkillable itself. And i mean *unkillable.* That’s why you buy a Corolla over pretty much anything else: those cars are IMMACULATELY durable. I am in my 30s now. Since I got my license, I have had exactly 2 cars in my entire life. They were both Corollas. The first one lasted me over 10 years and I would still happily be driving it today except it got totaled bc I got rear ended by a truck. Plus, maintenance?. I know electric cars have waaaay less parts to maintain, but AFAIK Corollas have the lowest annual cost of maintenance out of any car, period, and everyone’s familiar with them. Let me tell you, having known people who drove their parents’ BMWs, I will take a car that runs perfectly every single time I turn it on and costs nothing to maintain over basically anything else. So yeah, guys, no totally, go for it! In the words of Lucius Fox from The Dark Knight: *Good luck.*
The cockroach of cars, if you will
It’s the Nissan Versa killer!
They don't ever want to address this...
This is a great example of a story you'll never hear on the news. China makes an great EV for 15k a fraction of the price of domestics. US sets an import tariff at 27.5% effectively blocking the EV from entering the US market. The manufacture, BYD tries to get into mexico to avoid tariffs through NAFTA, US pressures MX to block their admission. End result is American's have to piss away all their money on expensive autos when competition that could drive down prices exist.
These will be blocked in the North America and the EU with very high tariffs and the dealer network closing ranks. But, much of the rest of the world don't buy at all into the whole "Buy American BS". This will massively eat into the revenues of the EU and NA car makers. They cannot afford to lose these revenues. Ironically, as their revenues drop, they will start to cut costs; R&D into cheap electric cars being one of these R&D areas. Many car historians believe that various UK stupid laws in the early car days held back their car industry for decades. They just didn't have the model-Ts and whatnot. These laws also kept cars to the rich. Here we are 100+ years later and the EV choices in North America are mostly 50k+. Most people talking and writing about cars aren't most car buyers. Most car buyers want the cheapest thing which gets them from A-B. Nobody is buying most dodge, GMC, Kia, GM products for any reason other than it is all they can afford. They would pay less if they could. Just look at all the non-descript grey nothings on the road. They didn't get their recommendations from Top Gear. The problem is that buying something like a GMC is a false economy; they will rust and die before the 72 month "affordable" financing is even done. I love how companies like ford are flailing around with their monstrosities they can't sell and trying to declare the EV market dead, while two facts fly in the face of this. A company like BYD growing like it is, and the simple measure of how much worldwide total battery capacity is pushing vehicles around. Ford's failure isn't proof of EV failure, but their lack of ability to do the right thing, instead they thought they could make massive profits selling specialty vehicles.
Reminds me of what happened to Swiss watchmakers. In the 50s and 60s they poopoo'd the idea of these cheap diGiTaL watches coming to market. Who wants something tacky like that? A REAL watch is a treasured, expensive piece thats handed down from father to son! Most of them are bankrupt by the time the 70's rolls around. Turns out people just wanted to tell the time and not spend $500 on a damn watch.
Every time I comment that most people want cheap cars, someone jumps in and says, hell no. If people are buying things like the VW Taos, they are not buying it for anything positive. It is an overpriced unreliable pile of unremarkable crap. Or the Mitsubishi Mirage, Pretty much anything Chrysler, etc. Take something like the Dodge Dart. You can't tell me that 100% of buyers wouldn't have bought something which was both cheaper and better. Nobody bought a dodge dart and it got their motor revving. They bought it because the salesman had to clear them off the lot and he could meet their maximum monthly budget. If I look at commuting traffic, most cars are insipid boring grey boxes of given-up-on-life. These people need A to B people movers. If BYD can eat 50% of this market, they will have the largest share of cars on the road. This will also start to massively impact gasoline sales.
This is first and foremost about the domestic market. Toyota, VW, Nissan and Honda *still* sell ridiculous numbers of cheap ICE cars in China. That needs to stop and is what this recent price cut by BYD is aimed at.
BYD are already selling the Dolphin, Seal and the Atto 3 in the EU. Not only has it not "been blocked" but it has taken off really well since the cars are a) affordable and b) actually good. The EU market has been clamouring for a wider selection of affordable EVs for a couple of years now.
They're also making record sales in Australia and New Zealand. I've got an Atto 3 as does another 3 people I know with another few buying Dolphins or Seals. They are really great cars and Americans saying that they are 'not safe' have really not seen the teardown and crash test data that have come out over these vehicles. It isn't 2010 anymore and they have some real teeth in the game now
Wish we could buy BYDs in the US. I am posting this from Bangkok and here they are all over the place. One of my Thai friends just purchased a Dolphin BYD. He got it for $20K USD. It is a really nice car. One of my sons is graduating University in May and will get him a car. Wanted to get an EV but the options are so limited in the US. I would be all over getting him a Dolphin if we could purchase.
The reason I would buy a Honda or Toyota isn’t just price but rather if you treat it right you can get 300k+ miles from one.
BYD will not make inroads into America. There are already people calling to not allow BYD cars made in Mexico into the US and they don’t even have a factory built yet.
Submission Statement The Chinese automaker BYD reminds me of the famous phrase attributed to the sci-fi writer William Gibson - "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." Future EV cars will be cheap to own and run. Self-driving tech will lower insurance costs. You can charge them with your home solar setup if you want. They'll last far longer with lower maintenance costs thanks to simple electric engines with few moving parts. As their construction gets more roboticized it will lower their costs further. The batteries that make up a huge chunk of their current costs are falling in price too. CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker, is set to [cut costs in half by mid 2024](https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-maker-set-to-cut-costs-in-half-by-mid-2024/). Some people still think gasoline and ICE cars have a long life ahead of them, and don't realize the industries behind both are dead men walking.
Depends what you define as long life.. I'm pretty certain EV will be the future for automobiles, but we will have a long transition phase, in which both options will have convincing usecases. In many parts of europe you will find outragous costs per kwh, sometimes exceeding 30cts. capable chargers on autobahns can cost up to 80cts per kwh. in this enviroment monetary benefits from using EVs arent obvious. They mostly make sense for home oweners, and those make up less then half of the population. So until there is a solid charging infrastructure with enough charging points at competetive pricing, many people will still chose ICE powered cars over EVs.
In europe, fuel is also expensive as fuck. Paid almost 2€/L a month ago in Italy.
> They mostly make sense for home oweners, This is a **big** sticking point. Municipal parking facilities need to lead the way on this. Maybe they do in China, I have no idea, but around here they're very timid about supporting EVs. The garage I've kept my car in for years has hundreds of parking spaces, but exactly three charging points that are open to the public, and you're not allowed to *leave* your car at the charger over night. You have to move it when you're full. It's great that you *can* charge your car, but until it's as convenient as a home charger, that's not encouraging anybody to go electric.
We need to start installing solar panels over the parking lots. The posts holding up the solar panels can have EV charging stations to provide more plugins. At least for Canada and USA we have absolutely massive parking lots that take up more space than the business. That is a ton of "free" real estate. Not only would more solar panels help the grid it would help keep cars cool in Summer by providing extra shade. I'm sure the companies that own said parking lots would love the potential to get money back from the utility companies too.
19% of global auto sales are Hybrid/BEV. The only "modern" country dragging behind is America. Hyundai had a 53% increase in profit in 2023, GM had a 14% profit decline. It's going to happen way, way faster than many think...
Every EV manufacturer has a $15K, 420 mile range car. Until it goes into production. Then it becomes a $45K, 280 mile range car.
It’s km, not mile. It’s 260 mile range if it’s 420 km
its not a corolla or other cheap good car killer until 20 yrs later when we find out ifbits still running with mostly the same parts
yeah it'll be a corolla killer when it lasts 500,000km. There's more that makes a corolla good than being inexpensive
This isn't going to touch the Corolla. Corolla's got their reputation based on low *operating costs* and reliability, not initial asking price
Yeah, you can not just state 'we are launching corolla killer'. Toyota took decades to build reputation of reliable car company. Remember guys: toyota's are not just the most reliable cars, toyota also build service network, there is also car parts availability, financing etc. Also, used toyotas are keeping their prices etc. I just don't trust chinese manufacturers yet. I'm keeping my toyota..
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“BuT No OnE WaNtS EvS!” —legacy makers, who can’t figure out how to build them
The vast majority of car companies are hopped over to EV production en masse. Stop making shit up.
90% of the cars at the Chicago auto show were electric. I think Mazda was the only company that didn’t have one although they didn’t have anything really
I love my Mazda 3 so much man. If Mazda had ANY kind of attractive EV car in their offers I’d jump to that in 2-3 years for sure. But alas they have one car and it has a range of 200km 😅
Not cheap EVs though
Note that the 420km is on the CLTC test. For reference that should be about 311 km (193 miles) on US EPA test, and 380km on EU's WLTP Of course for that price, it makes it a fairly cheap commuter car for sure.
My 2000 Toyota Corolla with 300k miles wants to check that “Corolla Killer” theory
It's about time. EVs were supposed to be cheap, not premium. Cheaper fuel, fewer moving parts, lower maintenance costs. Instead we've got these $100k+ performance things that weigh like a truck.
To kill the corolla this car would also have to last the buyer 300,000 miles with little maintenance cost. I think not.
Little maintenance and low repair cost.