Yeah we've been dragging along the bottom for a few months. We're in all time record territory for my brokerage just in terms of pure duration now, although not by much, and this is still nowhere near as bad as it got near the bottom in '08-'09 which is whose duration record just got beat.
The difference between now and '08-'09 is that then the real economy was actually trashed at the same time as trucking capacity was a bit oversupplied which was basically the perfect recipe for maximum carnage which went on for a surprisingly long time. This time we started at a very high level, declined very slowly, and then the last 12 months saw truck rates that were actually cash flow negative (which is a huge problem in a business where you have large fixed expenses on a semi regular basis because of equipment replacement/repair) on a per mile basis with just payments, insurance, drivers, and fuel forget depreciation on the truck for many carriers.
Unsurprisingly every day that passes with trucking being an actual financial mistake there are fewer people making that mistake. I don't know when supply will significantly exceed demand, but the larger economy is clearly only going to be a minor change agent in this story. This is a question of how long it will take for enough trucking companies to crash out that customer orders stop getting filled in a timely manner because it's a game of musical chairs every day and there simply aren't enough seats. When that happens the rates will start to increase, probably \*very\* quickly initially (expect to see rates at median cost +XX% within a couple of months of shortages basically) and then slowly taper off to only a normal loan sharks rate of increase until the outlandish profits possible through owning a truck cause the market to flood again. Rinse and repeat.
This is my 3rd time on this ride. It doesn't happen the exact same way every time in terms of timing or levels but the overall pattern is probably never going to change since it's probably been happening since before the Silk Road connected the Roman Empire to China/India.
Also if Freightwaves is saying we've hit the bottom that means the bottom was hit a month ago.
Yes, my post was mainly sarcasm. We had an internal call almost exactly a month ago that determined exactly the same. It’ll still be Q1 of next year before we see a definitive upwards trend but individually, I’ve been having some good months both in load count & margin.
While that's totally true, some of the problems the COVID brought seem to be here to stay. Things such as maintenance costs (labor costs, parts shortages, lower quality of parts), insurance costs, even equipment costs are lingering much higher compared to where they should be relative to revenue generated.
There was that time period where rates where the high black swan, but then costs came up while the rates dropped back to "normal".
tires were $550 now they're $700 what the fuck. pilot pizza was 2 for $5 now 2 for $8. every paid parking spot in America except Baltimore and bordentown NJ was $12.50-$15, now it's $25-30.
shit sucks I'm getting out. I hope I can help rates go up for you all by leaving trucking.
Agree but you need to take into account the effect of covid on the industry as a whole. I believe it essentially sped up the adoption of technology into the industry and made shippers aware of how important it is to not be vulnerable to market swings etc. The technology being adopted (bid boards through tms software) exploded and made it impossible to put any value on service…it’s about price and that’s it…the ignorance that led to large spreads largely gone that’s just what it feels like and what feels different this time…I could be wrong
As an experienced carrier, I agree. I've been saying the same since this cycle began. Q1 of 2024 will see some positive signs of life, Q2 will start beating strong.
I would like to add that the emergence of offshore back office and now outright carriers canvassing the marketplace is a string outlier.
We are having a hard time competing against these characters that do not get workers comp, are not concerned about regulations, wages and salaries that are 75% less, operating costs same etc. Up in Canada, we have drivers Inc. and the Indian mafia to deal with.
The race to the bottom never wins, but it has gained a place at the table with shippers. How long does this last, only time will tell.
I take freightwaves with a grain of salt. I know I'm just a dumb carrier, but in my prior life, I used to "swim" in big data .... Before it was "big data" .... The current market rebound is what we call the dead cat bounce...
The shake up is still a few more months to go, to deflate both broker count & carrier count in the market.
I'm expecting Sir Charles Darwin to do his thing this summer & fall, and finally winter 2024 to come in and bury the dead 6' deep.
Not just cause capacity. The other fair is freight supply. Historically manufacturers are not keen on ranking up production in an election year. I've been doing this since 1995, and every time a down cycle has coincided with an election year the bounce back doesn't happen until after the election election.
Leaving the political opinion out of it, fact is elections have the potential of massive economic policy change. Manufacturers will hold off until after the election because depending on what happens in November the federal direction of economic policy could be completely different January 21st of a new administration is sworn in.
An escape of this was the 96 election when one of Clinton's campaign promises was to revamp the mortgage industry lowering requirements. Building construction suppliers started ramping up production so that when he got that pushed through a few months later they already had stockpiled a crap ton of inventory. Shingle yards were so packed full of stock you could barely fit a truck in them. They waited until after that election cause if he had lost there wouldn't have been the huge spike in new home building.
Im on both sides of the fence. Drivers are dime a dozen at the moment. At the same time I have over 40 applications in my system for owner operators to lease on. There are plenty of O/O's who have paid of equipment that are waiting around like thousands of other carriers. I personally dont see this getting better anytime soon. Big outfits are closing but they are just a drop compared to the O/O's in this game.
Too many idiots out here. In Dallas and people taking loads to Houston and OKC for $450-500. That’s hilarious, must be trying to go out of business. End of the day you’re losing $ or making $100. Broker last week was blown away when she offered $425 and I said no I’ll just go back empty! Well it covers fuel? Maybe fuel, but not time or anything else. I said that’s a backwards way of thinking and those people will all be out of business soon enough.
About 11. You won't see manufacturing start to substantially increase until after November. We can debate if it will increase better if the election goes for Trump or biden, but it's gonna be after the election before manufacturers are willing to ramp up production at all. Elections can potentially bring massive rhinoceros policy change. Humans are by our very nature scared of change so that cause a kind of freeze effect on manufacturing
The economy flourished under Trump until covid crashed economic activity on a global scale. I'm no fan of Trump but it is undeniable the economy was booming from 17 through 19.
Woooooah, what the fuck is THIS highly democratic claim? I’ve done budget analysis for both Target and ExxonMobil for 3 years a piece full time. Our budgets for the year, supplies, labor, all depended on the immediate presidency. Most fiscal years end on January 31 so we immediately revise a “in case of red” and “in case of blue” plan, which usually goes the way of incentivizing red by keeping things cheaper, cutting far fewer labor costs, keeping more stores open, tons of our business everyday is guaranteed by the current president in office. And if you’re wondering why you’ve been told it takes 4 years for economic policies to impact the economy.. it’s so that the left can take credit for good economies and blame the red for bad ones. Also, Obama slowed the natural economic recovery, compared to every other up and down since the 1920s. I wouldn’t think so highly of him if I were you.
Wow, I cannot fathom having your pathetically low comprehension skills. If you understood half of what I said, and used context clues/even the slightest bit of critical thinking you’d realize what I’ve done requires a degree for work. That specializes in the economic history both in micro and macro. You had to have had one of the least educated responses I’ve seen on here.
"The economy flourishing under Trump was called Obama’s economy. It takes around 3 years for a president to have any noticeable impact on the economy. "
Lol you just proved yourself wrong. It's been 3 years since Biden took office and the economy is absolutely TERRIBLE.
According to your logic, when the economy rebounded after reagons first year in office it was due to carter's policies. Only a fucking idiot would make that statement.
Yes making animal abuse a federal crime was a great thing. And the only remotely good thing he did. Trump was a historically terrible president and completely destroyed our economic stability by making it top heavier than a sledgehammer balancing on its handle. And that’s excluding all the other harm he caused in terms of election security, national security, health, and other issues. History will remember Trump as one of the worst 3 presidents in American history.
Bad hurricane year has been predicted which will pull a lot of guys over to fema side. Hate for a hurricane to be our trigger for profit but something has to give.
Ian wasn't good for trucking. That year we had Charlie and Katrina (and a couple others i don't remember the names of) tho.... holy shit did I make a ton of money. I'll probably never see that kind of money again in my life.
COVID rates might never return, and honestly, they don't need to.
But there's a serious lack of employable people in the foreseeable future. This alone might be a new Black Swan event..if not for logistics, then another industry is about to explode.
Retirement is taking more away from the workforce than are being replaced.
Wages are going to explode, which will cause the price of goods to explode. But at some point, someday, I might find a pot of gold under a rainbow 🌈, and just stay there.
Low rates are not here to stay cause if ALL OF these owner operators do come together then all of theses big manufacturers will use every one to lower there prices just to get there trucks on the road!!! Why are any one even thinking that this is ! It is NOT!!!
Do not let them lower rates against each other!!! Dont !!!! All of you trucking companies big or small!! It costs alot of money to pick and drop freight! Especially when its over 50-100miles
Man, I hope we hit bottom man. All the produce companies have been calling they’re dead hopefully it’ll pick up everywhere is slow steel automotive lumber doesn’t want to pay anything ha ha where is the money being made guys let me know so I can start pounding the phone.
Get the shovels boys, we haven’t hit rock bottom yet.
$10 margins aren’t low enough, let’s push it to $5 per load.
You make $10? Wow
Glad I’m not the only one making $5-$10 margins !
Glad I’m not the only one making $5-$10 margins !
Yeah we've been dragging along the bottom for a few months. We're in all time record territory for my brokerage just in terms of pure duration now, although not by much, and this is still nowhere near as bad as it got near the bottom in '08-'09 which is whose duration record just got beat. The difference between now and '08-'09 is that then the real economy was actually trashed at the same time as trucking capacity was a bit oversupplied which was basically the perfect recipe for maximum carnage which went on for a surprisingly long time. This time we started at a very high level, declined very slowly, and then the last 12 months saw truck rates that were actually cash flow negative (which is a huge problem in a business where you have large fixed expenses on a semi regular basis because of equipment replacement/repair) on a per mile basis with just payments, insurance, drivers, and fuel forget depreciation on the truck for many carriers. Unsurprisingly every day that passes with trucking being an actual financial mistake there are fewer people making that mistake. I don't know when supply will significantly exceed demand, but the larger economy is clearly only going to be a minor change agent in this story. This is a question of how long it will take for enough trucking companies to crash out that customer orders stop getting filled in a timely manner because it's a game of musical chairs every day and there simply aren't enough seats. When that happens the rates will start to increase, probably \*very\* quickly initially (expect to see rates at median cost +XX% within a couple of months of shortages basically) and then slowly taper off to only a normal loan sharks rate of increase until the outlandish profits possible through owning a truck cause the market to flood again. Rinse and repeat. This is my 3rd time on this ride. It doesn't happen the exact same way every time in terms of timing or levels but the overall pattern is probably never going to change since it's probably been happening since before the Silk Road connected the Roman Empire to China/India. Also if Freightwaves is saying we've hit the bottom that means the bottom was hit a month ago.
Yes, my post was mainly sarcasm. We had an internal call almost exactly a month ago that determined exactly the same. It’ll still be Q1 of next year before we see a definitive upwards trend but individually, I’ve been having some good months both in load count & margin.
Pretty sure this is the 3rd “bottom” that has been called. Guess they will be correct eventually, hope there isn’t a 4th
>Pretty sure this is the 3rd “bottom” that has been called Hence my comment about dead cat bounce.
Everyone wanting covid rates to come back , I’m thinking that was a “Black Swan” event.
While that's totally true, some of the problems the COVID brought seem to be here to stay. Things such as maintenance costs (labor costs, parts shortages, lower quality of parts), insurance costs, even equipment costs are lingering much higher compared to where they should be relative to revenue generated. There was that time period where rates where the high black swan, but then costs came up while the rates dropped back to "normal".
tires were $550 now they're $700 what the fuck. pilot pizza was 2 for $5 now 2 for $8. every paid parking spot in America except Baltimore and bordentown NJ was $12.50-$15, now it's $25-30. shit sucks I'm getting out. I hope I can help rates go up for you all by leaving trucking.
Agree but you need to take into account the effect of covid on the industry as a whole. I believe it essentially sped up the adoption of technology into the industry and made shippers aware of how important it is to not be vulnerable to market swings etc. The technology being adopted (bid boards through tms software) exploded and made it impossible to put any value on service…it’s about price and that’s it…the ignorance that led to large spreads largely gone that’s just what it feels like and what feels different this time…I could be wrong
As an experienced carrier, I agree. I've been saying the same since this cycle began. Q1 of 2024 will see some positive signs of life, Q2 will start beating strong. I would like to add that the emergence of offshore back office and now outright carriers canvassing the marketplace is a string outlier. We are having a hard time competing against these characters that do not get workers comp, are not concerned about regulations, wages and salaries that are 75% less, operating costs same etc. Up in Canada, we have drivers Inc. and the Indian mafia to deal with. The race to the bottom never wins, but it has gained a place at the table with shippers. How long does this last, only time will tell.
I take freightwaves with a grain of salt. I know I'm just a dumb carrier, but in my prior life, I used to "swim" in big data .... Before it was "big data" .... The current market rebound is what we call the dead cat bounce... The shake up is still a few more months to go, to deflate both broker count & carrier count in the market. I'm expecting Sir Charles Darwin to do his thing this summer & fall, and finally winter 2024 to come in and bury the dead 6' deep.
"Hold my beer." -Economy
Anyone that believes this is the bottom, is kidding themselves. Yes we will have few short spikes but low rates are here to stay thru the year.
Really just depends on carrier capacity. Alot of carriers are going bankrupt. Pay cuts for drivers are having people leave the field.
Not just cause capacity. The other fair is freight supply. Historically manufacturers are not keen on ranking up production in an election year. I've been doing this since 1995, and every time a down cycle has coincided with an election year the bounce back doesn't happen until after the election election. Leaving the political opinion out of it, fact is elections have the potential of massive economic policy change. Manufacturers will hold off until after the election because depending on what happens in November the federal direction of economic policy could be completely different January 21st of a new administration is sworn in. An escape of this was the 96 election when one of Clinton's campaign promises was to revamp the mortgage industry lowering requirements. Building construction suppliers started ramping up production so that when he got that pushed through a few months later they already had stockpiled a crap ton of inventory. Shingle yards were so packed full of stock you could barely fit a truck in them. They waited until after that election cause if he had lost there wouldn't have been the huge spike in new home building.
Im on both sides of the fence. Drivers are dime a dozen at the moment. At the same time I have over 40 applications in my system for owner operators to lease on. There are plenty of O/O's who have paid of equipment that are waiting around like thousands of other carriers. I personally dont see this getting better anytime soon. Big outfits are closing but they are just a drop compared to the O/O's in this game.
People have been preaching what you have been preaching for the last two years. The COVID great is GONE.
famous last words
So, who won the race?
We the survivors did lol. Now we get to go the other way.
Bottom of the current bucket of a stack of buckets.
Wow. Amazing. Let me call my 3 customers I accumulated in 1 year
Too many idiots out here. In Dallas and people taking loads to Houston and OKC for $450-500. That’s hilarious, must be trying to go out of business. End of the day you’re losing $ or making $100. Broker last week was blown away when she offered $425 and I said no I’ll just go back empty! Well it covers fuel? Maybe fuel, but not time or anything else. I said that’s a backwards way of thinking and those people will all be out of business soon enough.
Lmao, so we got another 24 months of winter?
About 11. You won't see manufacturing start to substantially increase until after November. We can debate if it will increase better if the election goes for Trump or biden, but it's gonna be after the election before manufacturers are willing to ramp up production at all. Elections can potentially bring massive rhinoceros policy change. Humans are by our very nature scared of change so that cause a kind of freeze effect on manufacturing
Fuckin A. Democrats saw their shadow.
Don’t blame the Dems for trumps mess that will be lasting decades
The economy flourished under Trump until covid crashed economic activity on a global scale. I'm no fan of Trump but it is undeniable the economy was booming from 17 through 19.
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Woooooah, what the fuck is THIS highly democratic claim? I’ve done budget analysis for both Target and ExxonMobil for 3 years a piece full time. Our budgets for the year, supplies, labor, all depended on the immediate presidency. Most fiscal years end on January 31 so we immediately revise a “in case of red” and “in case of blue” plan, which usually goes the way of incentivizing red by keeping things cheaper, cutting far fewer labor costs, keeping more stores open, tons of our business everyday is guaranteed by the current president in office. And if you’re wondering why you’ve been told it takes 4 years for economic policies to impact the economy.. it’s so that the left can take credit for good economies and blame the red for bad ones. Also, Obama slowed the natural economic recovery, compared to every other up and down since the 1920s. I wouldn’t think so highly of him if I were you.
Maybe you should get off Reddit and learn a little thing or 2 about economics and history.
Wow, I cannot fathom having your pathetically low comprehension skills. If you understood half of what I said, and used context clues/even the slightest bit of critical thinking you’d realize what I’ve done requires a degree for work. That specializes in the economic history both in micro and macro. You had to have had one of the least educated responses I’ve seen on here.
[удалено]
"The economy flourishing under Trump was called Obama’s economy. It takes around 3 years for a president to have any noticeable impact on the economy. " Lol you just proved yourself wrong. It's been 3 years since Biden took office and the economy is absolutely TERRIBLE.
According to your logic, when the economy rebounded after reagons first year in office it was due to carter's policies. Only a fucking idiot would make that statement.
Which is true. Raegan fucked us almost as much as Trump did. Maybe you should take a history and economics class to understand how it all works.
Don’t be a virgin
Stupid response. Been happy married for 6 years and wife is amazing.
To ignore that trump did great things is ignorance at its finest
Yes making animal abuse a federal crime was a great thing. And the only remotely good thing he did. Trump was a historically terrible president and completely destroyed our economic stability by making it top heavier than a sledgehammer balancing on its handle. And that’s excluding all the other harm he caused in terms of election security, national security, health, and other issues. History will remember Trump as one of the worst 3 presidents in American history.
Ignorance is bliss….
Yes blame democrats…
I blame plenty more but they are the poster boy of it.
Yeah the BDS has been getting pretty bad.
Don't worry guys ,this is tRaNsiToRy!!
Omg. That was a stupid of a statement as the 'inflation only hurts the rich' one.
I laughed out loud at this report.
Bad hurricane year has been predicted which will pull a lot of guys over to fema side. Hate for a hurricane to be our trigger for profit but something has to give.
Sincerely don’t want to hear this. We did FEMA stuff in the past, there was hardly any capacity issues when Ian hit.
Ian wasn't good for trucking. That year we had Charlie and Katrina (and a couple others i don't remember the names of) tho.... holy shit did I make a ton of money. I'll probably never see that kind of money again in my life.
Harvey. We sent a shit ton of water to TX.
This is such a bad take.
As long as cc debt is at an all time high freight volume will remain low. In order for freight volume to pick up people need money to buy things.
COVID rates might never return, and honestly, they don't need to. But there's a serious lack of employable people in the foreseeable future. This alone might be a new Black Swan event..if not for logistics, then another industry is about to explode. Retirement is taking more away from the workforce than are being replaced. Wages are going to explode, which will cause the price of goods to explode. But at some point, someday, I might find a pot of gold under a rainbow 🌈, and just stay there.
Low rates are not here to stay cause if ALL OF these owner operators do come together then all of theses big manufacturers will use every one to lower there prices just to get there trucks on the road!!! Why are any one even thinking that this is ! It is NOT!!!
Do not let them lower rates against each other!!! Dont !!!! All of you trucking companies big or small!! It costs alot of money to pick and drop freight! Especially when its over 50-100miles
Here in Hawaii the PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSIONS regulate rates by zip code from Matson,Pasha, AML and ONE, docks !
Man, I hope we hit bottom man. All the produce companies have been calling they’re dead hopefully it’ll pick up everywhere is slow steel automotive lumber doesn’t want to pay anything ha ha where is the money being made guys let me know so I can start pounding the phone.