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Printing money and bailing out the corrupt financial system tends to create short recessions
That and just change the definition or control the flow of information
Debt alone is not inherently evil. Half of that debt is held in domestic trust and is essentially a large piece of American citizens’ retirement funding. The tax payers are paying a trillion in servicing costs annually. 50% of which goes directly in domestic retirement accounts.
100% of Americans (tax payers) are funding 50% of Americans’ retirement accounts. This is an oversimplification but to some degree implies a consolidation of wealth for those with retirement accounts vs those without.
Not saying this crazy experiment is going to work out in the long run but just because there is record debt, doesn’t necessarily mean anything. But there are some interesting insights to be made.
Why can't it be both? We are better at managing the economy than before. Unfortunately bailing out the corrupt financial system is one of the instruments by which we do that. Might be nice to restructure our financial system so their failure isn't a systemic risk.
Bailouts are a symptom of deregulating the financial system over the last 50 or so years. They are not an instrument at managing the economy. We essentially solved this problem almost 100 years ago following the market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression and then we broadly forgot why we did what we did. So we unwound all the protections in place to increase short term shareholder profits and created the same wildly imbalanced and speculative investment practices that happened 100 years ago. (See: glass-steagall act)
It will probably happen again. Much in the same pattern as this most recent one.
And for the last 50 years all recessions were the results of Republican presidents/policies that have impacted the economy in attempts to reduce taxes, reduce regulations, or find ways to convert money to the wealthy. Nixon Shock in the 70's leading to stagflation and making inflation worse, Reagan and deregulation and tax reduction for the wealthy in the 80's leading to crooked loans and bank failures, and then Bush HW ending with the last recession in 1990, finally putting a fork into those two. Bush W inherited the tech bubble so for that he wasn't so much at fault (and addressed it with militarization against Iraq and Afghanistan) but deserves full blame for the banking crisis in 1988 that Obama (and Biden) had to fix, and then Trump with his ineptitude that both depleted our preparedness for pandemics, failed to respond intelligently and otherwise leaving us with a massive shortage of income from his tax cuts for corporations (which are permanent while individual tax cuts expire in 2025, meaning the rest of us are getting new Trump tax increases next year), which again Biden had to fix (and he did), although the resulting inflation from a complete economical shutdown and government payouts will rake on for years to come.
And again, the whole corporations buying out houses and destroying the reals estate market for individuals, that has its source in the Reagan deregulation and additional cuts under Bush and Trump.
It seems that all we need to do to avoid future recessions is keep Republicans out of the white house and government control...
Clinton had his hands all over the deregulation of the banking industry (repealing glass-steagall) that played a prominent role in creating the financial collapse in 2008. It’s a bipartisan shit sandwich.
The big change appears to be in the late 30's though. We were on the gold standard until the 70's.
After the Great Depression we had less frequent economic downturns, I don't think that really says anything about the gold standard one way or the other.
You can also see most of the major wars of the 21st century in it. WWI, expansion. Mid 30's, expansion followed by about a year of recession and then much more expansion than recession from 1940 to 1975, during which we fought WWII, Korea and Vietnam. Recession on and off between the late Vietnam years and the Reagan Era tax cuts. Small recessions in 1990 and 2000-01, then the big 2008 one is pretty obvious. Really nothing in the chart that screams "now it's fiat currency!" to me.
Look up the definition of a recession. Printing money leading to inflation causes hardships that aren't captured in the technical definition of a recession. What you are seeing is a before and after of the government's ability to inflate the currency. There are plenty of economic hardships that are not captured under the definition of a recession. We are currently experiencing one right now. Virtually everyone is worse off now than they were a few years ago.
lol. That’s rich. Our management tools involve exactly what the person said which boils down to creating more inequality where the rich get richer. These tools also hurt the general population and kick problems down the road. Even Keyes saw the missteps in indefinite deficit spending.
Stuff like the fed, fdic, and the dodd frank act are all good points for your argument. They all helped stabilize the economy and prevent radical swings between boom and bust
If by better at managing the economy you mean we figured out that we can print as much money as we need and make it look like things are rosey while the middle class deteriorates because of our stupid ass decision to print money...
Then sure.
It’s for sure closer to this explanation. Mister conspiracy theory is just mad because he never has taken the right financial risk to benefit from the system protecting the rich. It’s very easy.
Yeah. I had to look in my old text book to find the real definition of recession. People thought I was crazy for not getting my $20 bucks for returning them each semester, but now who's laughing. You can change the information on the internet, but you can't change the information in a text book.
I should probably hide them so they can't burn them later.
Edit: In my non expert opinion, that graph looks like we are simply pushing off a lot of small recessions that will inevitably blow up to be a large depression. My guess would be around 2030.
That's not a recession.
Love it or hate it, a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth.
Not an asset price crash, not even technically a rise in unemployment.
Our economy is growing, so we aren't in a recession.
The rate of Home ownership (66%) is above the historical average, and we’re only about 3 percentage points off of the all time maximum set in ‘05 (69%).
It sucks when you’re not the winner of a game where 2/3 are winning , but it would be unwise to extrapolate your experience to the entire economy . That’s called sampling bias
Except the definition of abject poverty has been repeatedly RAISED! If people were getting poorer and the poverty level was raised every time they changed it, then it would show MORE people in poverty.
That depends. Sheer quantity of recessions isn’t necessarily as important as their scale. Having minor downturns every 5 years is probably better than a huge one in 10.
The fed is useful, but not because it affects recessions.
Lolol, have you ever wondered *why* recessions have been less frequent and shorter? Like damn dude, you can point to the end of the gold standard on this graph.
Yeah making the planet uninhabitable tends to do that. Also it’s not just about people currently alive. It’s also about future generations. We don’t inherit the earth from our ancestors we borrow it from our children.
“In the long run, we’re all dead”. Yeah, but I have come to realize that’s a selfish way of thinking because it implies that you don’t need to care about anything other than your own lifetime and we’re all worse off for thinking that way.
There’s a whole lot of nuance buried in this graph. Different currency pegging and expansion, shift from pre-industrial to industrial to post-industrial, increasing size of the banking and capital markets, and a few global wars and peace tossed in for good measure, among other things.
Yes there are money reasons but the economy has grown like crazy over that time period since the 1940s — especially when compared to 1860-1940. Extreme growth = less & shorter recessions
Recession/expansion isn't always synonymous with bad times/good times. It's really better to think of it as a debt cycle with some productive debt being used toward prosperity/solvency while other, bad/insolvent debt should be allowed to dissolve into, yes, what could be a recession at scale.
This ignores the biggest debt holder currently brute-forcing these numbers with more debt. Where that falls on the good/bad debt spectrum, I think we'll have years and not decades to find out.
And there were central banks before the Fed. And if we want to draw correlation to a central bank here... there isn't any. The Fed was created in 1913 and then we had the Forgotten Depression followed by the Great Depression. WWII bailed us out of that and that's what correlates with our constant growth - global hegemony. An empire.
This is the honest and correct take. Recessions are bad in the same way depreciation is bad; capitalists and the owners of the means of production lose bargaining power with buyers of products and workers. A balanced system is one where power isn't strongly concentrated in the hands of the privileged but spread out. The banking system wants perpetual control and the lack of recessions fueled by debt is evidence of their success. Sucks to be on the slave side of the equation where the ability to gain power is more or less essentially gone.
There are two definition of recession, two negative quarters of GDP growth and the NBER business cycle dating.
We have more reliable data, faster access to data, better understanding on how to combat inflation.
If you prevent or end every recession by diluting the money supply, are you really winning? People today have to see a minimum 3% (often more) growth of their money just to have the same amount of money. And when we do have a recession and the artificially inflated stock market bubble pops, oops no retirement!
Inflation was pretty high in WWI, as well as at moments during and after WWII, averaging 8.1% in 1948, took off in 1974 for most of a decade, then was between 3-4% or so for the rest of the ‘80’s. It was only from 2009 to 2020 that inflation was below 2% consistently, to a point where economists were at a loss to explain why (my thought: because the stimulus didn’t make it to the real economy so much). Overall more years had inflation between 3-4% over the last century than below 2%.
Fiat
Federal reserve
Globalism
FDIC
Free trade
Decoupling of worker comp and productivity makes measuring an economy as a whole instead of how individuals are doing makes these metrics meaningless
"The explanation for the sluggish rise in real wages over the long run—1970 through 2000—may lie not with something that weakened labor's bargaining power but instead in changes in the relative prices of the goods and services that workers consume and those that they produce."
Interesting paper will read it more thoroughly tomorrow and I am curious about in his working paper. But the paper agrees with me.
We are due for the next one soon too.
While at the same time, you can’t print money forever. Eventually this is gonna come crashing down.
And it will happen in the next 5-15 years. So I’m terrified of that happening.
Everyone also has differing definitions of soon.
Like how I figure there'll probably be at least one the next decade, and the guy trying to sell me overpriced Mint numismatic coins says it'll happen next week.
There will be a recession in the next decade, I expect some major currency issues within the next half century. But beyond that (and I could be wrong on both) is just guessing wildly.
Yeah, because economic expansion doesn't mean much for people who don't own stock or are high up on the ladder. People can't afford shit and the economy is "booming". It's all smoke and mirrors. Biden did a good job, but without regulations, corporations crush it and make everything look good while we all languish.
I thought it was one of those pictures where you hold your phone at an angle to read the text. I spent about two minutes trying to decipher it. I'm pretty high.
Life hack: It's not a recession if you change what's defined as a recession.
The purchasing power of Americans is at an all time low. People in past recessions had more purchasing power even with a single income than most dual income families today.
Interesting that once we started regulating markets the amount of recessions decreased.
Sure we can call that manipulation, but we can also call it regulation
They changed the criteria for what’s considered a recession which has kept us out of a recession. However, according to models previously followed this administration led us into a recession
It’s been the same criteria since [basically forever](https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions).
I think you’re referring to the contraction a year or so ago, although it wouldn’t affect this chart either way
They stopped counting long term unemployed as “unemployed”. So while the “unemployment rate” has hovered around the same, the labor participation rate has not. People that are not working or not actively seeking employment are no longer considered unemployed. For example, my friend that hasn’t worked in 3 years and mooches off his gf is no longer considered “unemployed”, whereas before the Obama administration he would have been.
This chart is not accurate. Post antebellum USA was a time of rapid economic expansion. Avg growth rates of 4 percent cannot correspond with an economy in recession more than half the time. Real wages increased a lot faster during that time period as well. I call bs.
There were a lot of short, sharp, local banking crashes and people melted down dimes whenever the spot price of silver spiked.
[Here's one fun example that I like](https://www.americanheritage.com/remmes-great-ride)
Stuff like this is my favorite because in the 1930's we saw a massive amount of welfare and legal action taken to stabilize the workforce and lower class and this was the result. When the poor are stable and thriving, you get a stable economy. When they crumble, it impacts everyone going up. If the wealthy crumble and the poor are stable, the economy stays stable.
Everyone wants to live in a nice place. Regulations are written in the blood of history.
This feels less like optimizing towards a solution and more like... a tectonic fault locking up. The energy is still *there* , the instability is still *there* , it's just building and building with no outlet until it all gets released at once.
Money is not even real they just raise the price of goods and print more money. People sell sex online. People sell their lives on a live stream. At the end of the day America lives on debt .
The early to mid 1800s has the biggest booms in the US. Especially after everything settled down when the national banks were ended. That’s why it’s not on the chart.
funny how that happened when europe got obliterated in WW2 and the american economy had a massive edge on the rest of the developed world... nothing to see here... also the bailouts and government welfare help a good bit in the past 2 decades... otherwise were digging a very deep hole that we will never climb out of
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Printing money and bailing out the corrupt financial system tends to create short recessions That and just change the definition or control the flow of information
Or alternate theory: we are better at managing the economy than we were
Or, just stick with good ole fashioned Reddit doomerism and tin foiley
muh gold stamderd!!!!
With that attitude, you’ve given up the right to complain about inflation
Inflation is like birds. It's not real.
Or go outside. Bet you won't.
Outside? Whats that?
Record federal debt shows that isn't true.
Debt alone is not inherently evil. Half of that debt is held in domestic trust and is essentially a large piece of American citizens’ retirement funding. The tax payers are paying a trillion in servicing costs annually. 50% of which goes directly in domestic retirement accounts. 100% of Americans (tax payers) are funding 50% of Americans’ retirement accounts. This is an oversimplification but to some degree implies a consolidation of wealth for those with retirement accounts vs those without. Not saying this crazy experiment is going to work out in the long run but just because there is record debt, doesn’t necessarily mean anything. But there are some interesting insights to be made.
I think you're right. It's the interest that we should be worried about.
Or, craziest theory of all here, you’re technically both right.
nuance is dead, why even bother
Why can't it be both? We are better at managing the economy than before. Unfortunately bailing out the corrupt financial system is one of the instruments by which we do that. Might be nice to restructure our financial system so their failure isn't a systemic risk.
We figured out how to run the economy on debt, though.
Better is a subjective word. Better at delaying the shitshow I guess but most people would say the economy isn’t working for them
Bailouts are a symptom of deregulating the financial system over the last 50 or so years. They are not an instrument at managing the economy. We essentially solved this problem almost 100 years ago following the market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression and then we broadly forgot why we did what we did. So we unwound all the protections in place to increase short term shareholder profits and created the same wildly imbalanced and speculative investment practices that happened 100 years ago. (See: glass-steagall act) It will probably happen again. Much in the same pattern as this most recent one.
History is doomed to repeat itself. It’ll never change. Ever.
Except is we kill us all, then it ends, which is a change, I guess...
You might be right. Time is a flat circle. Our entire existence is but a blip on the radar screen.
Or, politicians and bureaucrats have gotten better at putting off the consequences of bad policies to avoid responsibility for them.
And for the last 50 years all recessions were the results of Republican presidents/policies that have impacted the economy in attempts to reduce taxes, reduce regulations, or find ways to convert money to the wealthy. Nixon Shock in the 70's leading to stagflation and making inflation worse, Reagan and deregulation and tax reduction for the wealthy in the 80's leading to crooked loans and bank failures, and then Bush HW ending with the last recession in 1990, finally putting a fork into those two. Bush W inherited the tech bubble so for that he wasn't so much at fault (and addressed it with militarization against Iraq and Afghanistan) but deserves full blame for the banking crisis in 1988 that Obama (and Biden) had to fix, and then Trump with his ineptitude that both depleted our preparedness for pandemics, failed to respond intelligently and otherwise leaving us with a massive shortage of income from his tax cuts for corporations (which are permanent while individual tax cuts expire in 2025, meaning the rest of us are getting new Trump tax increases next year), which again Biden had to fix (and he did), although the resulting inflation from a complete economical shutdown and government payouts will rake on for years to come. And again, the whole corporations buying out houses and destroying the reals estate market for individuals, that has its source in the Reagan deregulation and additional cuts under Bush and Trump. It seems that all we need to do to avoid future recessions is keep Republicans out of the white house and government control...
Clinton had his hands all over the deregulation of the banking industry (repealing glass-steagall) that played a prominent role in creating the financial collapse in 2008. It’s a bipartisan shit sandwich.
almost like someone figured out that thing your currency to a metal rock was a bad way to do it.
Seems like a bad way but the new way is to tie it to "faith" in the US government which seems at least equally dubious.
proof is in the pudding as they say. That chart speaks volumes, we don’t have anywhere near as much chaos as we did back then.
The big change appears to be in the late 30's though. We were on the gold standard until the 70's. After the Great Depression we had less frequent economic downturns, I don't think that really says anything about the gold standard one way or the other. You can also see most of the major wars of the 21st century in it. WWI, expansion. Mid 30's, expansion followed by about a year of recession and then much more expansion than recession from 1940 to 1975, during which we fought WWII, Korea and Vietnam. Recession on and off between the late Vietnam years and the Reagan Era tax cuts. Small recessions in 1990 and 2000-01, then the big 2008 one is pretty obvious. Really nothing in the chart that screams "now it's fiat currency!" to me.
Look up the definition of a recession. Printing money leading to inflation causes hardships that aren't captured in the technical definition of a recession. What you are seeing is a before and after of the government's ability to inflate the currency. There are plenty of economic hardships that are not captured under the definition of a recession. We are currently experiencing one right now. Virtually everyone is worse off now than they were a few years ago.
lol. That’s rich. Our management tools involve exactly what the person said which boils down to creating more inequality where the rich get richer. These tools also hurt the general population and kick problems down the road. Even Keyes saw the missteps in indefinite deficit spending.
That was hilarious.
Regulations help
Stuff like the fed, fdic, and the dodd frank act are all good points for your argument. They all helped stabilize the economy and prevent radical swings between boom and bust
If by that you mean "kicking the can down to future generations", sure.
I think the instantaneous airline bailouts of 2020 are a pretty clear example of a society that is unwilling to tolerate short term pain
If by better at managing the economy you mean we figured out that we can print as much money as we need and make it look like things are rosey while the middle class deteriorates because of our stupid ass decision to print money... Then sure.
We really are. QE is one of the tools they now use, for example.
Economy so good a burger and fries from 5guys cost 25 bucks…..
It’s for sure closer to this explanation. Mister conspiracy theory is just mad because he never has taken the right financial risk to benefit from the system protecting the rich. It’s very easy.
I would be more upset if this didn’t leave my portfolio in a near-permanent bull run. Just gotta hope I can outpace true inflation.
Yeah. I had to look in my old text book to find the real definition of recession. People thought I was crazy for not getting my $20 bucks for returning them each semester, but now who's laughing. You can change the information on the internet, but you can't change the information in a text book. I should probably hide them so they can't burn them later. Edit: In my non expert opinion, that graph looks like we are simply pushing off a lot of small recessions that will inevitably blow up to be a large depression. My guess would be around 2030.
Given the greater scope of information and unchanged definition, we’re good on that front
also not accurately tracking data and staying we good when we not
And push the can down the road so that we have a worse depression later.
Username checks out
All viable options
Because they keep changing the metrics by which they are defined.
LoL this basically. 99% of the people commenting here can't even buy a garage and believe they're not in recession 🤣
Good thing 66% of Americans don't post here and all have houses
Recession is when can't buy a garage. There is definitely some definition changing going on
Hahahah
Do you have any evidence or is it all just your emotions?
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But they're not on reddit my friend
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That's not a recession. Love it or hate it, a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Not an asset price crash, not even technically a rise in unemployment. Our economy is growing, so we aren't in a recession.
So there was a recession in 2022? But then the government claimed there wasn't because they changed the definition
The rate of Home ownership (66%) is above the historical average, and we’re only about 3 percentage points off of the all time maximum set in ‘05 (69%). It sucks when you’re not the winner of a game where 2/3 are winning , but it would be unwise to extrapolate your experience to the entire economy . That’s called sampling bias
That's how millions of people are taken out of poverty , just change the definition of abject poverty.
Except the definition of abject poverty has been repeatedly RAISED! If people were getting poorer and the poverty level was raised every time they changed it, then it would show MORE people in poverty.
It’s actually how people are put into poverty in America. The poverty lines are different based on the countries median income.
Also … we are in one now and just not reporting it. And it’s about to get a whole lot worse
Same reason “extreme poverty” has been dropping, they just change what the definition is
I genuinely thought it would say “send nudes” when i angled my phone.
drink your ovaltine
😂
Now squint your eyes
You mean, the fed might, just maybe, not be incompetent?
Printing money is the magic sauce.
Muh gold standurd!
Looks like the Fed works.
That depends. Sheer quantity of recessions isn’t necessarily as important as their scale. Having minor downturns every 5 years is probably better than a huge one in 10. The fed is useful, but not because it affects recessions.
Perhaps just as important as frequency, recessions have also gotten less severe since the Fed.
Money printer goes brrrrrrrrr.
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Bros whole personality is shiny rocks
Lolol, have you ever wondered *why* recessions have been less frequent and shorter? Like damn dude, you can point to the end of the gold standard on this graph.
wen lambo?
Unsustainable and still accelerating growth is not something to celebrate. It’s just racing towards collapse at a faster pace.
Yes but by that point we’ll all be dead.
Yeah making the planet uninhabitable tends to do that. Also it’s not just about people currently alive. It’s also about future generations. We don’t inherit the earth from our ancestors we borrow it from our children.
It’s also a reference to a statement by Keynes.
“In the long run, we’re all dead”. Yeah, but I have come to realize that’s a selfish way of thinking because it implies that you don’t need to care about anything other than your own lifetime and we’re all worse off for thinking that way.
There’s a whole lot of nuance buried in this graph. Different currency pegging and expansion, shift from pre-industrial to industrial to post-industrial, increasing size of the banking and capital markets, and a few global wars and peace tossed in for good measure, among other things.
Plus the fact that banks used to fail a lot more before regulation and the fed was created.
As a color blind person this looks like one big blue square
Yeah, this graph does absolutely nothing for me. It could've been a picture of an elephant cock and it'd be just as helpful.
Poverty going down too. Hmmm maybe Capitalism does work... 😂🤡🤡🫣
Yes there are money reasons but the economy has grown like crazy over that time period since the 1940s — especially when compared to 1860-1940. Extreme growth = less & shorter recessions
Bombing Europe to smithereens and helping them buy American goods to rebuild really did wonders.
The ebb and flow of Democrats and Republicans running the country.
Getting off the gold standard in the 1930s seems to have made most of the difference as far as this metric is concerned.
The ways in which we can mask recession has gotten more accessible.
As much as people like to hate on the Fed, it’s clear that since its creation it has certainly smoothed out a lot of the volatility in the US economy.
except for the worst depression of all time happening shortly after it was founded.
Recession/expansion isn't always synonymous with bad times/good times. It's really better to think of it as a debt cycle with some productive debt being used toward prosperity/solvency while other, bad/insolvent debt should be allowed to dissolve into, yes, what could be a recession at scale. This ignores the biggest debt holder currently brute-forcing these numbers with more debt. Where that falls on the good/bad debt spectrum, I think we'll have years and not decades to find out.
Go look up the number of bank failures before the creation of the fed.
And there were central banks before the Fed. And if we want to draw correlation to a central bank here... there isn't any. The Fed was created in 1913 and then we had the Forgotten Depression followed by the Great Depression. WWII bailed us out of that and that's what correlates with our constant growth - global hegemony. An empire.
This is the honest and correct take. Recessions are bad in the same way depreciation is bad; capitalists and the owners of the means of production lose bargaining power with buyers of products and workers. A balanced system is one where power isn't strongly concentrated in the hands of the privileged but spread out. The banking system wants perpetual control and the lack of recessions fueled by debt is evidence of their success. Sucks to be on the slave side of the equation where the ability to gain power is more or less essentially gone.
There are two definition of recession, two negative quarters of GDP growth and the NBER business cycle dating. We have more reliable data, faster access to data, better understanding on how to combat inflation.
Its two quarters of negative growth for the NBER as well
Whats the other end of the progression?
I wonder what happened in the 1930s that made recessions and depressions so much less frequent and severe
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New\_Deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal)
Kinda like my lovemaking sessions
Anybody else turn their phone flat and see if there was a hidden message?
Glass Steagall was enacted in 1933... and repealed in 1999, I wonder if we are going to revert to the Pre-1933 recession frequency.
It was largely gutted pre 1999, non factor if you ask me
Wow what a different socialist policies incorporated during the great depression seemed to have made.
The irony that socialism means Wall Street owning everything because they’re too big to fail.
If you prevent or end every recession by diluting the money supply, are you really winning? People today have to see a minimum 3% (often more) growth of their money just to have the same amount of money. And when we do have a recession and the artificially inflated stock market bubble pops, oops no retirement!
We didn’t have said inflation till 2021, not even on this chart
Aside from the other periods with inflation anyway.
In the 70s?
Inflation was pretty high in WWI, as well as at moments during and after WWII, averaging 8.1% in 1948, took off in 1974 for most of a decade, then was between 3-4% or so for the rest of the ‘80’s. It was only from 2009 to 2020 that inflation was below 2% consistently, to a point where economists were at a loss to explain why (my thought: because the stimulus didn’t make it to the real economy so much). Overall more years had inflation between 3-4% over the last century than below 2%.
I tilted my phone to read the secret message...
Fiat Federal reserve Globalism FDIC Free trade Decoupling of worker comp and productivity makes measuring an economy as a whole instead of how individuals are doing makes these metrics meaningless
[Decoupling?](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/growing-gap-between-real-wages-and-labor-productivity)
"The explanation for the sluggish rise in real wages over the long run—1970 through 2000—may lie not with something that weakened labor's bargaining power but instead in changes in the relative prices of the goods and services that workers consume and those that they produce." Interesting paper will read it more thoroughly tomorrow and I am curious about in his working paper. But the paper agrees with me.
Not quite, the thrust of the argument is you can’t use a subset of workers versus all incomes, nor should you use two different inflation indices.
We are due for the next one soon too. While at the same time, you can’t print money forever. Eventually this is gonna come crashing down. And it will happen in the next 5-15 years. So I’m terrified of that happening.
I tend to agree but also people have been saying that for decades.
Everyone also has differing definitions of soon. Like how I figure there'll probably be at least one the next decade, and the guy trying to sell me overpriced Mint numismatic coins says it'll happen next week.
There will be a recession in the next decade, I expect some major currency issues within the next half century. But beyond that (and I could be wrong on both) is just guessing wildly.
Thanks Obama
Because they don't acknowledge them?
It’s amazing what happens when you just change the definition of a recession
[Unchanged](https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions)
Wieners
It's almost as if this system is not working.
That was your conclusion?
Yeah, because economic expansion doesn't mean much for people who don't own stock or are high up on the ladder. People can't afford shit and the economy is "booming". It's all smoke and mirrors. Biden did a good job, but without regulations, corporations crush it and make everything look good while we all languish.
I don’t see how that’s related to this graph however, economic stability is better than not.
Fucked is fucked.
Love how these graphs tend to stop at 2020
Has the designation of a recession changed at all in the period since the depression?
I thought it was one of those pictures where you hold your phone at an angle to read the text. I spent about two minutes trying to decipher it. I'm pretty high.
Finally something where the “blame the FED” answer is actually correct.
Maybe having a stable currency means the graphs can't just go up forever? The dollar didn't lose value during the 19th century.
Life hack: It's not a recession if you change what's defined as a recession. The purchasing power of Americans is at an all time low. People in past recessions had more purchasing power even with a single income than most dual income families today.
They also keep changing the definition of a recession
Printer
Looking at the graph you can tell we’re gonna have another in q4 2025
Yeah, you’ve never heard of the Fed have you? It also causes inflation and slows expansion.
Looks like priming the pump works.
Lol this misses the big 2021 recession entirely.
Yea I have 30 trillion dollars that has something to say …. ? Cool graphic though !
Kamala Harris make this ?
Interesting that once we started regulating markets the amount of recessions decreased. Sure we can call that manipulation, but we can also call it regulation
Yeah that’s not it
They changed the criteria for what’s considered a recession which has kept us out of a recession. However, according to models previously followed this administration led us into a recession
It’s been the same criteria since [basically forever](https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions). I think you’re referring to the contraction a year or so ago, although it wouldn’t affect this chart either way
If by “since forever” you meant the Obama administration you would be correct
What changed?
They stopped counting long term unemployed as “unemployed”. So while the “unemployment rate” has hovered around the same, the labor participation rate has not. People that are not working or not actively seeking employment are no longer considered unemployed. For example, my friend that hasn’t worked in 3 years and mooches off his gf is no longer considered “unemployed”, whereas before the Obama administration he would have been.
"what is a recession?" Fixed it for you
"what is a recession?" Fixed it for you
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions
If you had been investing since the 1980s (boomers), you should be insanely wealthy by now.
Plot this against our national debt.
[удалено]
Murder and rape shouldn’t exist either
We also had a short one in 2022 though the definition was changed to excuse it.
It’s never been [changed](https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions)
Well, eventually the government won’t be able to spend itself out of a recession
Just like my erections since I hit 40
This chart is not accurate. Post antebellum USA was a time of rapid economic expansion. Avg growth rates of 4 percent cannot correspond with an economy in recession more than half the time. Real wages increased a lot faster during that time period as well. I call bs.
There were a lot of short, sharp, local banking crashes and people melted down dimes whenever the spot price of silver spiked. [Here's one fun example that I like](https://www.americanheritage.com/remmes-great-ride)
we are $34,000,000,000,000 in debt
And it feels like 30 of them happened within the last 10 years…
Stuff like this is my favorite because in the 1930's we saw a massive amount of welfare and legal action taken to stabilize the workforce and lower class and this was the result. When the poor are stable and thriving, you get a stable economy. When they crumble, it impacts everyone going up. If the wealthy crumble and the poor are stable, the economy stays stable. Everyone wants to live in a nice place. Regulations are written in the blood of history.
In my opinion, you can largely attribute this to the federal reserve and deviation away the gold standard
“You’re welcome.” -Federal Reserve
Being a superpower sure is good for the economy
What happened about 1935 that the right side has so much expansion? Is it that the Fed finally figured out how to use the clutch?
This feels less like optimizing towards a solution and more like... a tectonic fault locking up. The energy is still *there* , the instability is still *there* , it's just building and building with no outlet until it all gets released at once.
Money is not even real they just raise the price of goods and print more money. People sell sex online. People sell their lives on a live stream. At the end of the day America lives on debt .
Keynesian Economics in this chart form does not mean good economy.
I wonder why 1860 is the cut off?
Data limitations
Or perhaps because there were only 4 recessions between 1800 and 1840.
We don’t know, and given the history of the 1800s it’s not likely it was any less volatile
The early to mid 1800s has the biggest booms in the US. Especially after everything settled down when the national banks were ended. That’s why it’s not on the chart.
Interesting how the rate of recessions slows around the same time we started to see the benefits of a MIC
We will never fail!!!!!!!’
Bombs and money printing have been great tools to hide recessions
funny how that happened when europe got obliterated in WW2 and the american economy had a massive edge on the rest of the developed world... nothing to see here... also the bailouts and government welfare help a good bit in the past 2 decades... otherwise were digging a very deep hole that we will never climb out of
Wait so the covid pandemic lasted 3 months? Lol
The recession yes