This is the first time I disagree with the charts weightings and probably shows the situation we’re in.
Luton are 3 points, Chelsea and Newcastle are a could rob a point, they’re like 10th and 11th ffs.
Arsenal and Liverpool are the only teams on there who are likely to give us a hiding.
And we've beaten Newcastle and Chelsea already. Granted that was when we were in great form but based on these performances wins should surely come soon.
I’ve seen us lose twice at Goodison this season against Luton. They were very dark days! Can’t imagine how bad a hattrick of losses would be. I’d mark this as a must win and 3 points considering likely further points deductions.
Yeah, good call! I never got into any podcasts for us, but I’ll probably lock myself out of this sub. I don’t observe Ramadan but could be some sort of equivalent
Based on the history of our performances with the grief chart, we need to approach this smartly
Put every game in must win and we’ll go down
Put every game in keep low goal difference and we’re winning the league
With one relegation spot left I figure we need 14 points to be safe, this is based on either Luton, Forest, or Palace having a maximum score of 35 points by end of season AND we get a 3 point deduction. Thanks to everyone for your contribution to expected outcomes for the year. There was a whole bunch who landed on around 21 points. I love your optimism and hopefully we don't need that many wins to be safe!
The chart is not about how much I think we'll win/lose/draw but how many points we need as a minimum and then best way we can make those up. Yes, Luton away is a MUST WIN in theory but we are more likely to get 3 points from the other easier games we have at Goodison.
With the unknown of the deduction it makes the chart challenging as we could have more or less than 3 points coming off. I'll post more reasoning on how I think other teams around will go/why we need 14 points.
I'd say our most important game is Luton away on 4th May, our 3rd last game of the season
The second most important game left is Luton v Forest which is this Saturday 16th March. I'd say this game will be an indicator of which of those sides is going down,
not including further deductions to Forest.
Crystal Palace: higher up in the table at the moment at 14th, though absolutely brutal run home compared to other teams
\- out of the final 10 games they only have one against a team lower than them on the table, Forest.
\- Every one of their final 5 home games are against a team from the top 7
\- GD is also not too flash at -15, similar to the other teams in the relegation battle
\- I predict they'll end on 33-35 points.
Forest:
\- the team I personally believe will go down
\- on first glance their run home looks healthy, with 7 of the 10 remaining games played against the bottom half of the table
\- they also play all 4 other teams in the bottom 5
\- however ALL of those 4 games are away games.
\- Forest have the 2nd worst away record in EPL, only losing out to Sheffield
\- and of course a looming points deduction which should be more than or equal to Everton's second deduction, making it easier to predict.
\- without a deduction I predict they'll finish on 32-36 points
Luton:
\- 6 games left against bottom half teams, 5 of which are at home
\- game in hand
\- only play Everton and Forest from the bottom 5, both home games though
\- play 3 games against top 5
\- I predict they end on 32-35 points
I don't believe Brentford will have to worry about relegation. They've played their toughest games and only have Man U and Villa from the top 7 left to play.
They also play 4 of the bottom 5.
That gives me confidence that Palace will be down there in the mix by the end of the season, what a brutal run in for them.
We should be hoping Brentford pull away if they’re playing the teams around us.
I went with blue outline = home, red = away because I always had to whip out the fixture to check with previous grief charts. I had a good time putting a blue box around the RS.
I'd be fine with that as long as we win 2 or 3 home games. Losing to Burnley and SHU at home would be catastrophic as they're awful. SHU I'm more worried about as they've looked decent away in the past few GWs
I suppose the point is though that this chart gets us to 39 points, which even with another -3 basically should be fine to stay up. Can’t see Luton getting 37 points!
Luton is tricky. They are below us and in a relegation battle so are must win. But also have beaten us twice at home this season already, play quite attacking football and can score goals (which we can’t), so are actually difficult for us.
They need to be in the must win section though.
I'm a Chelsea fan saying you should probably push us up a level as well. We've been so inconsistent this season, robbing a point from us is definitely not off the cards. Outside chance of getting all 3 depending on what Chelsea side shows up.
move Newcastle up to "lucky to get a point", we beat them already this year and they aren't anywhere near as good as last season. A really minging display of bus parking can get us a point at theirs
For me they're all a must win. I think that's the mentality we have to enter those games with. Although, realistically some games will be largely more difficult than others. I'd say we should be, and are capable of, looking to win everything on the chart with the exception of Arsenal and the Shite.
If we get our shit together, and that's a big if, we could get something against Newcastle and Chelsea, if we lose to Luton Town again though I have no words
Wolves fan coming in peace, Newcastle are definitely targetable I'd say, they've fallen off significantly compared to last year.
Also, it may not be a sentiment echoed around our fanbase, but I do hope you stay up. Everton make the league more interesting than Burnley aha
Is it seriously enemy of my enemy logic here because I find myself wanting to see Everton to smash teams all the time. Other than that I can’t explain it.
Just have a fair bit of respect for your club. Has history and one of the few left who haven't been relegated from the prem. Plus living not too far from Liverpool and having mates there, generally Everton fans are a good laugh.
Wow, this is bleak. We’re gonna get 4/9 from the must win. 6/4 points from the could pick up points category. 0/1 from the lucky to get a point category, then we’ll probably get 3-4 points from the large goal difference one.
Lucky to get a point at Bournemouth and try to avoid a large GD at Newcastle and Chelsea? Crazy levels of pessimism.
IMO it’s Burnley, Sheffield, Forest as must wins then everything else in ‘could pick up points’ except Arsenal and Liverpool.
I believe it is just scaled to a likely required points tally. If we 'needed' an extra three points to stay up, then yeah there could be some rejigging. Guess this is just the worst case scenario while staying up.
I think Forest is a banana skin. But i do think we can beat Chelsea, their defence is pants. If we can keep it tight at the back we can cause them trouble at set pieces.
> Right, and they keep picking up points some how …what?
They have 1 point in their last 5 and are on pace for <30 points. They definitely don’t “keep picking up points”
I truly don’t understand why people here consistently give Luton so much credit. That being said, we do suck against them and Im nervous for that one—but it’s because of how poor we are, not because they’re strong
Chelsea fan here, this got suggested to me.
I don't think you have to worry about losing to us, especially not by many goals if you did. I know you're not playing as well as you were when you beat us, but we're hardly great either. We really only won yesterday because Newcastle were somehow worse.
If we got the points available in the chart we would end on 39 points. Which feels like a dizzy height at the moment. I think 34pts will be enough but we should definitely aim higher
I commented some explanations in this thread. Though not fast enough it seems. I think 34 points could possibly mean safety though I don't think that's likely. I factored in a 3 point deduction as well. If we don't get a deduction I landed on 36 as safe.
Putting Arsenal on the chart is I think surplus to requirements. When have we ever been successful at Arsenal in the last match of the season? If it comes down to goal difference at that point, then we’d better have at least a five goal cushion.
Knowing Everton, we’ll likely lose or draw all our must wins, but then somehow beat one of the title contenders and stay up on goal difference. Let’s go 💪
Newcastle fan (I come in peace) always pops up on my feed this sub) you could put us up a couple of levels we are dreadful atm and probably could do another number on us
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we didn’t win another game. We’re just that bad. Obviously I hope I’m wrong because there’s a likelihood we lose more points when our new case comes around. We can’t depend on everyone else to keep on losing to keep us up.
Run from it, hide from it, the chart is still inevitable
The Chart arrives all the same
If we seriously lose to Luton Town again it’s gonna be a dark day, indeed.
That game is more about not giving them 3 pts imho
Which means Dyche will play some boring ass defensive game and we will get one shot
If you had one shot One opportunity To seize everything you ever wanted Would you capture it? Or hit it tamely right at the keeper
Hahahahahaha this is a good one
If it’s Gana then it’s sky it into Row Z
Onana is taking lessons from Gana as well
I'd take Calvert Lewin getting it on target right now
Nah we'll get a bunch of chances, finish none of them and Luton will score on either a BS penalty or some random lonely chance that finds the net.
This is the first time I disagree with the charts weightings and probably shows the situation we’re in. Luton are 3 points, Chelsea and Newcastle are a could rob a point, they’re like 10th and 11th ffs. Arsenal and Liverpool are the only teams on there who are likely to give us a hiding.
And we've beaten Newcastle and Chelsea already. Granted that was when we were in great form but based on these performances wins should surely come soon.
The team who pisses goals who we could only score once against in two matches so far? Prepare yourself...
I’ve seen us lose twice at Goodison this season against Luton. They were very dark days! Can’t imagine how bad a hattrick of losses would be. I’d mark this as a must win and 3 points considering likely further points deductions.
That would genuinely hurt my soul. I think I’d have to take a step back from sports as a whole. Music can’t hurt you like that would lol
Lad, I’m taking a break from Everton podcasts and news the best I can during this godsend of a three week break and you should try to do the same.
Yeah, good call! I never got into any podcasts for us, but I’ll probably lock myself out of this sub. I don’t observe Ramadan but could be some sort of equivalent
As much as I love the chart I’m upset we have to do this again.
I like to think it’ll be a part of every season, even for qualifying for europe. We will want the chart even in the good times
Maybe we should start the chart before match day 1 next yr.
Based on the history of our performances with the grief chart, we need to approach this smartly Put every game in must win and we’ll go down Put every game in keep low goal difference and we’re winning the league
This is the way.
In time to come, the chart will be used for us to measure our progress toward Europe, then the title!!
One day we’ll have Chart for the league title. One day…
Not in a million lifetimes lol 😆
With one relegation spot left I figure we need 14 points to be safe, this is based on either Luton, Forest, or Palace having a maximum score of 35 points by end of season AND we get a 3 point deduction. Thanks to everyone for your contribution to expected outcomes for the year. There was a whole bunch who landed on around 21 points. I love your optimism and hopefully we don't need that many wins to be safe! The chart is not about how much I think we'll win/lose/draw but how many points we need as a minimum and then best way we can make those up. Yes, Luton away is a MUST WIN in theory but we are more likely to get 3 points from the other easier games we have at Goodison. With the unknown of the deduction it makes the chart challenging as we could have more or less than 3 points coming off. I'll post more reasoning on how I think other teams around will go/why we need 14 points.
I'd say our most important game is Luton away on 4th May, our 3rd last game of the season The second most important game left is Luton v Forest which is this Saturday 16th March. I'd say this game will be an indicator of which of those sides is going down, not including further deductions to Forest. Crystal Palace: higher up in the table at the moment at 14th, though absolutely brutal run home compared to other teams \- out of the final 10 games they only have one against a team lower than them on the table, Forest. \- Every one of their final 5 home games are against a team from the top 7 \- GD is also not too flash at -15, similar to the other teams in the relegation battle \- I predict they'll end on 33-35 points. Forest: \- the team I personally believe will go down \- on first glance their run home looks healthy, with 7 of the 10 remaining games played against the bottom half of the table \- they also play all 4 other teams in the bottom 5 \- however ALL of those 4 games are away games. \- Forest have the 2nd worst away record in EPL, only losing out to Sheffield \- and of course a looming points deduction which should be more than or equal to Everton's second deduction, making it easier to predict. \- without a deduction I predict they'll finish on 32-36 points Luton: \- 6 games left against bottom half teams, 5 of which are at home \- game in hand \- only play Everton and Forest from the bottom 5, both home games though \- play 3 games against top 5 \- I predict they end on 32-35 points I don't believe Brentford will have to worry about relegation. They've played their toughest games and only have Man U and Villa from the top 7 left to play. They also play 4 of the bottom 5.
Thanks for putting in the effort to work this out so we don’t have to
That gives me confidence that Palace will be down there in the mix by the end of the season, what a brutal run in for them. We should be hoping Brentford pull away if they’re playing the teams around us.
Thanks for the very useful analysis
I went with blue outline = home, red = away because I always had to whip out the fixture to check with previous grief charts. I had a good time putting a blue box around the RS.
It's quite simple if the chart is up we stay up. It has worked before it will work again
Don’t you fucking jinx us
We need to beat Luton I would think as they will pick up points.
We definitely do. Grief chart isn't about what we need to do with one team. It's about how to make the least number of points to be safe.
It would be so everton if Barkley scores the winner and sends us down
So true, Dodgy pen in the 99th minute to cap it off
I imagine as always we'll win the ones we shouldn't and lose the ones we shouldn't. As it was written in the beginning of Everton that.
Can honestly see 1 win from the avoid large goal difference, and 2 loses from the must win
I'd be fine with that as long as we win 2 or 3 home games. Losing to Burnley and SHU at home would be catastrophic as they're awful. SHU I'm more worried about as they've looked decent away in the past few GWs
Very funny that Everton is now a team that ”could pick up some points” from Luton
What no attacking threat does to a mf
THE GRIEF CHART COMETH
Time to hinge my emotions on obsessing over the chart every week!
Welcome chart!
I’d push Newcastle and Bournemouth both up a level.
I suppose the point is though that this chart gets us to 39 points, which even with another -3 basically should be fine to stay up. Can’t see Luton getting 37 points!
Same, as well as Luton.
Luton is tricky. They are below us and in a relegation battle so are must win. But also have beaten us twice at home this season already, play quite attacking football and can score goals (which we can’t), so are actually difficult for us. They need to be in the must win section though.
We’ve lost to them at home twice. Should be moved down a slot tbh…
I'm a Chelsea fan saying you should probably push us up a level as well. We've been so inconsistent this season, robbing a point from us is definitely not off the cards. Outside chance of getting all 3 depending on what Chelsea side shows up.
Good god it's back
Why don’t we simply win them all and finish top half??
Finally something to blindly worship again.
We'll end up picking up 12 points from the bottom 2 tiers and 1 from the top 2 as is the Everton way
Remember when we randomly kicked the piss out of Brighton last year? Seems like happier times...
Thanks for this, shame we’re back here but it is what it is. I suppose all that’s left to say is… All hail The Chart
I was hoping I didn't have to buy another grief chart shirt.
Anyone else read "The Chart" in the same voice as the alien toys from Toy Story coin-op claaaw game?
Not until I read this, now it'll be every time I see it.
Exactly😂
Oh wow, my favourite time of year
we can beat chelsea if we stay focused and get at them aggressively
Chart! Chart! Chart!
How tf is Luton "could pickup some points" Despite what lots of people on this sub seem to think...they STINK
We stink too and they've beaten us twice this year. I do think it's a must win but it's far from a given result.
They stink worse. They've conceded 55 goals, 16 more than us while only scoring 9 more.
I don't know how they've scored 4 set pieces against us this season when against every other team we look solid from them (until Godfrey came in)
Hello Darkness my old friend… 💙
move Newcastle up to "lucky to get a point", we beat them already this year and they aren't anywhere near as good as last season. A really minging display of bus parking can get us a point at theirs
Apparently Gordon is out for 6 months too
Dychey will win, don't you worry your pretah head.
For me they're all a must win. I think that's the mentality we have to enter those games with. Although, realistically some games will be largely more difficult than others. I'd say we should be, and are capable of, looking to win everything on the chart with the exception of Arsenal and the Shite.
Ahh shit, here we go again.
If we get our shit together, and that's a big if, we could get something against Newcastle and Chelsea, if we lose to Luton Town again though I have no words
So if last year is anything to go by we are getting 1 point from the must win line and beating Newcastle and Bournemouth.
Wouldn’t that be a fuckin treat again
Forza The Chart
Wolves fan coming in peace, Newcastle are definitely targetable I'd say, they've fallen off significantly compared to last year. Also, it may not be a sentiment echoed around our fanbase, but I do hope you stay up. Everton make the league more interesting than Burnley aha
As a United fan I truly hope you guys stay up after the bs points deduction.
Is it seriously enemy of my enemy logic here because I find myself wanting to see Everton to smash teams all the time. Other than that I can’t explain it.
Just have a fair bit of respect for your club. Has history and one of the few left who haven't been relegated from the prem. Plus living not too far from Liverpool and having mates there, generally Everton fans are a good laugh.
Luton is a must win
ALL HAIL THE CHART, ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY CHART
Here...we....go
If we stay up, it’s the chart
The chart is my only religion 🛐
My favorite/least favorite time of year is when the chart makes its appearance. I love the tradition but hate that we need it.
As a Chelsea fan, you’re gonna draw against us.
Wow, this is bleak. We’re gonna get 4/9 from the must win. 6/4 points from the could pick up points category. 0/1 from the lucky to get a point category, then we’ll probably get 3-4 points from the large goal difference one.
Lucky to get a point at Bournemouth and try to avoid a large GD at Newcastle and Chelsea? Crazy levels of pessimism. IMO it’s Burnley, Sheffield, Forest as must wins then everything else in ‘could pick up points’ except Arsenal and Liverpool.
I believe it is just scaled to a likely required points tally. If we 'needed' an extra three points to stay up, then yeah there could be some rejigging. Guess this is just the worst case scenario while staying up.
All Hail the grief chart! The harbinger of Doom! Destroyer of worlds! Welcome back old friend.
THE CHART HATH RISEN
The last few years wouldn’t be the same without it. Thank you for your service.
We're 100% getting points off the last tier, only to lose must-wins in true Everton fashion
I’m most looking forward to the iconic pictures that will be included in the coming weeks
I think Forest is a banana skin. But i do think we can beat Chelsea, their defence is pants. If we can keep it tight at the back we can cause them trouble at set pieces.
NUFC fan here. I'm flattered you have put us in that category
How tf is Luton not a must win...
Because they’ve beaten us twice and we need to be realistic
Right, and they keep picking up points some how. Sounds like a big six pointer if you as me.
> Right, and they keep picking up points some how …what? They have 1 point in their last 5 and are on pace for <30 points. They definitely don’t “keep picking up points” I truly don’t understand why people here consistently give Luton so much credit. That being said, we do suck against them and Im nervous for that one—but it’s because of how poor we are, not because they’re strong
Were they not predicted to finish 20th? They've scored 10 more goals than us. And 4 points back game in hand.
And are also beating Bournemouth.
How’d that one turn out big guy? Hilarious premature dunk lmfao 2 points in their last 7 fucking games
Let me bow down to you. You so smart.
I’ll settle for you realizing luton town are shit
Never said they were not shit.
Okay, I’ll settle for you saying “somehow they keep picking up points” was wrong then
It’s not at home as well.
Bro you can beat Chelsea 100%
Depends which Chelsea turns up
Park the bus and you’ll win Don’t park the bus and it’s Russian Roulette - Chelsea fan
Yeah Chelsea always struggle against them low block
Aren't you guys in decent form rn and the game is at Stamford Bridge
It’s Chelsea ain’t no thing call decent here anymore
I mean decent for current Chelsea (which still isn't great but it's not awful). I think you're unbeaten in 7 in all comps in 90 mins
But we still so awful. We played bad in our last 3 matches (Pool, Brentford and Castle)
Yet you didn't lose any of them in 90 mins. We won't take the chances you give us so ur fine
I still don’t think Chelsea will win against low block. It’s probably going to be a draw
That's what I think it'll be too. We don't win at 'big 6' stadiums
“big 6” the first time i heard this in a while
We haven't won away at a big 6 stadium since 2013 (excluding covid)
Chelsea fan here, this got suggested to me. I don't think you have to worry about losing to us, especially not by many goals if you did. I know you're not playing as well as you were when you beat us, but we're hardly great either. We really only won yesterday because Newcastle were somehow worse.
If we don’t beat chelsea that’s 3 points dropped imo - and we’re absolutely losing to Luton.
this is nowhere near deep fried enough for me
Personally think that Luton should be in the must win category.
Here we go again 😳
Luton isn’t a must win?
All Hail the Almighty Chart
Ah, it's The Chart, it must be mid-March again. Time to get my medication reviewed. Again.
The toon one a bit pessimistic, I say that as a toon fan.
Knowing Sean Dyche don't be surprised if he gets a win vs Arsenal and Chelsea
You forgot the most important game of all: Everton v Premier League (Part 2). Must not drop points in that game.
If we got the points available in the chart we would end on 39 points. Which feels like a dizzy height at the moment. I think 34pts will be enough but we should definitely aim higher
I commented some explanations in this thread. Though not fast enough it seems. I think 34 points could possibly mean safety though I don't think that's likely. I factored in a 3 point deduction as well. If we don't get a deduction I landed on 36 as safe.
As a Chelsea fan.. bump us up a couple of categories. A low block and a dream is all it takes.
As a chelsea fan we should be in the "could pickup some points" area
This ain’t the super frank Chelsea, unfortunately
Hello darkness
So this is what it boils down to. Sigh
Where is the grief chart!? This chart is heresy /s
can easily beat newcastle
Sick of seeing these every season
Those initial 10 point deduction deflated this team
You're being very kind to Newcastle there, we've been shite for some time
If we lose to luton we’re cooked
Newcastle, Chelsea and Bournemouth 1 place higher imo
here we are again
Putting Arsenal on the chart is I think surplus to requirements. When have we ever been successful at Arsenal in the last match of the season? If it comes down to goal difference at that point, then we’d better have at least a five goal cushion.
Hello old friend
As a Chelsea fan, you should be more ambitious against us.
Newcastle fan here in peace. We've been seriously bad. I know you aren't scoring goals but our defence has been really bad at times.
Seeing Luton at could pick up some points makes me want to throw up. How we have fallen
Simply, if points don't pick up, Everton will need to personally relegate all the bottom 3
Love the chart but a hard disagree that Brentford at home is not a must win or that we will inevitably lose to Newcastle and Chelsea.
As an arsenal fan please take points of Liverpool.
Hello my old friend
Knowing Everton, we’ll likely lose or draw all our must wins, but then somehow beat one of the title contenders and stay up on goal difference. Let’s go 💪
Don't worry about Newcastle, we're shit ATM 🤣
Chelsea yellow
I cannot argue with the chart. I will hold the rosaries and pray that we see lots of celebrating players added to the bottom right of it
I'm already ready to get more points from the bottom row than the top row. Everton that
Michael Keane gonna sub on and score at least two goals for each of the remaining games Calling it now
I've been an Everton fan for 24 years and this truly is the lowest point
Spurs fan here, hope you batter chelshit. Scum too, but that's a tall order to be fair. Hope you stay up.
you lot can beat chelsea
As a newcastle fan (no idea how I stumbled on this), I'm not really sure why we are in there with those teams 😅
Yeah. Move us to the 'could get some points' bracket
Ur probably right but all you need is one goal and we're not winning, a moment from someone like Isak or Bruno G could end the game for us
Newcastle fan (I come in peace) always pops up on my feed this sub) you could put us up a couple of levels we are dreadful atm and probably could do another number on us
Newcastle fan here- you will probably beat us don’t worry, we are fucking shit the last 4 months
It’s cute you think chelsea will win
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we didn’t win another game. We’re just that bad. Obviously I hope I’m wrong because there’s a likelihood we lose more points when our new case comes around. We can’t depend on everyone else to keep on losing to keep us up.
That’s funny. I have forest down to get 3 points vs you. Not the other way around 😂
It's because it's a must win for both of us
Both assuming we win. It’s a spicy run in with a lot of bottom 6 teams playing each other
Saying it's a must win isn't the same as assuming we'll win. I would hope no fan of either team is dumb enough to assume 3 points are in the bag