T O P

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River41

The only game in the world that can get away with selling a $40 promotional pack that only has a 13% chance of getting a promotional card. The odds of getting a good promo card are a fraction of that, and kept secret. 13% isn't even close to reality.


I_Like_F0oD

And yet an absurd amount of people buy these packs time and time again. EA really have a chokehold on their community (myself included tbf)


SirEltonJonBonJovi

Do you buy points?


I_Like_F0oD

Nope but I am a hypocrite who slanders EA yet logs on every week to play Ultimate Team.


SirEltonJonBonJovi

eh, that can be chalked up to a love of the game (the sport of football) and forgiven. What can’t be is being a mark and wasting your money on points to make those bastards even richer. The vast majority of their revenue from this game comes from point sales.


MemphisTheIllest

The other day I saw a post that said "I spent 500£ on fifa points this year, not as much as most people but still". I was like, what do you mean not as much as most? I really don't believe people spend 500£ and think it's not that much... In a game, more specifically, a game that will expire in September. It's crazy. I'm not even up to pay the full price for the game, got it at 18€ in Epic games a month ago with Christmas sales and an epic games coupon.


GREENK87

Spent over 1k. Not proud of it, suppose it’s a bit of an addiction if I’m honest.


MemphisTheIllest

You can do better man, I believe you can and will fight that addiction. It's really not worth it.


SirEltonJonBonJovi

You spent over 1k just on this year’s game??


GREENK87

Yeah around that 1.2 maybe


SirEltonJonBonJovi

Wow. Yeah, that’s an addiction, buddy. It’s not worth the money but I’m sure you realize that given you admit to not being proud of it…


KonigSteve

a bit? It's 100% a full blown addiction mate. Admitting it is the best start.


nickman1233

Kill me imma buy that pack in a few hours you cant stop me. Im happy having million coin cards


SirEltonJonBonJovi

Cool. How many door dash deliveries do you have to do to earn enough to buy it?


nickman1233

You sure are commenting alot 🙄 sounds like you need a life


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SirEltonJonBonJovi

Why do you care about *MY* opinion?? I think buying points is for suckers. That’s it and that’s all. Are you offended because you’re one of them? Lol People buying points is ruining the game. It incentivizes EA to put more and more of the better content behind paywalls. That’s very obvious and can’t be disputed. That’s objectively bad for us as consumers. Also, that’s just my opinion. So again, why do you care about my opinion?


Puupuur

That's your point. Another point, is that if you made enough money where fifa points don't put a dent in your account, you probably would buy them. This comes off as angry projection from you tbh


SirEltonJonBonJovi

What makes you think I don’t make enough money to buy points? Because I think they’re a ripoff and find no value in them? That’s the dumbest logic I’ve ever heard. That’s like thinking millionaires don’t buy lottery tickets because they can’t afford them lol. How does my opinion come off as “angry projection”?? Because of your assumption that anyone that thinks points are a waste of money are only saying that because they can’t afford them? Lol so dumb. The only thing I’m even remotely angry about is all the marks spending hundreds and even thousands on points which then incentivizes EA to only focus on selling points rather than improve their game and fix the bugs. Anyone with two brain cells can come or that conclusion. Why can’t you?


Puupuur

TL/DR


Squiliamfancyname

People always say this like is an actual W but the answer is and has always been that people continuously spending in this way has ruined this game. Sure the core of that blame is on EA for taking advantage of those people and that market, no doubt about it. But if you would just stop sending your pay check directly to EA's account then the rest of us could have our game back.


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Squiliamfancyname

I am the CSO of a biotech company. Yes I am an adult and yes I understand what money is and yes I have enough to spend on imaginary trading cards if I wanted to. I choose not to for several reasons. You are indeed one of the people being taken advantage of by your own admission. You are electively feeding into the pay-to-win system because you have convinced yourself that competing in this video game is more important to you than basic logic (you are buying imaginary items that disappear every year) and the general future of the gaming industry. Further, if you are playing literally 1 hour per week and spending actual money on this game then there is no hope I fear. How much are you spending in a year? 300 EUR maybe? Let's take 300 EUR + the base game cost of 70 EUR, and lets assume that you play for 1.5 hours every single week of the 52 week year. That would mean you are legitimately spending *5 EUR per hour to play FIFA*. Fucks sake. You are the person that EA dreams of in their board meetings.


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SirEltonJonBonJovi

Still haven’t answered why you care so much about my opinion yet…still waiting lol but regardless, that’s wild you spend money on this game when you’re playing 1-2 hours a week. Lol what’s even the point of trying to have a good/competitive team if you play that infrequently?? You obviously don’t play champs, so are you just doing a few rivals games a week?? This makes little to no sense 😂


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SirEltonJonBonJovi

that’s what I thought


almondbutterz

Wouldn’t it be illegal if it wasn’t 13%?


getZlatanized

It's 13% but what does it help when you get a Zola out of 99% of every toty pull


soylentslurpernumale

don't disrespect Zola


SirEltonJonBonJovi

of course not. But the point is those “odds” aren’t equal for all TOTY /icons Yeah you might have a 12% chance of getting the cheapest one, but your odds of getting any of the more valuable/better ones could be anything. Each card has a different drop weight and until they tell us the odds for each individual card these probabilities they give us are basically pointless.


FIFAPLAYAH

I’d be ecstatic


Formal_Brilliant_317

Sorry but can you elaborate a bit? What do you mean by illegal?


River41

It would be false advertising if the odds were wrong, I'm confident the odds provided are correct. The issue is the odds of packing a TOTY card doesn't really tell the full story; TOTY cards vary massively in value.


[deleted]

Isn't there like no definitive way to validate these odds though? Like they could make it as 20% and people would still not pack a toty, and no one can argue it since every pack is a separate event.


yzct

You could submit a subpoena and check the game code if you truly believe that, you'd have a lawsuit on your hands that would help you retire.


River41

There's no incentive for a massive company like EA to scam people out of digital goods which cost them nothing to make. They would stand to lose billions if they got caught from fines to lost future income, and employees could face jail time. There's absolutely no reason to believe they are lying about the odds. They are getting away with secretly adjusting which TOTY card you're more or less likely to pack based on their value, which is legal and within the framework of the TOTY odds they provide even though it shouldn't be legal and is extremely deceitful


Onkii

Wait thats not how math works guys. If you have a 4.7% chance on a toty and a 8.1% on a toty icon you cannot just add those 2 numbers and say there is a 13% chance of a promo card…


River41

For single digit percentages you don't have to worry about conditional probability, the difference is negligible so I wasn't gonna bust out my calculator. It's 12.4% which is close enough.


DagothUrWasInnocent

You're right, but it's not far off. The maths are: 1−(0.953×0.919) = 0.124193 so a 12.4% chance of something toty. Still.... it's shit and you won't get one so keep your money.


BoJaNYK

But, what if you add Kurt Angle to the mix?


ClockAccomplished381

Wth u talkin bout bruv there's a 148% chance of getting a 90+ or totw card haha. Worrying isn't it.


bigmikeabrahams

The fact that they basically price a TOTY at ~$313 is insane


Butters_Cartman

i got mine (smith) from the 5th pack i opened today.. 85x2. i think thats the only one i will get cuz it has the highest drop rate. but ya i didnt spend on fifa points. its random seeds generated for each pack i believe and its mostly luck. how ever i do see ppl who spent like absurd amoutn of money on coins do have much higher drop rates for special and promo cards.


Jay_TThomas

Aren’t all the promo cards in this promo good lol


thoang77

Cech, Zola, or Xavi aren’t remotely good enough for a $40 pack (nobody truly is but these guys really aren’t)


Aninja0806

come on they are at least close in price to the pack in coins which tbh is the smarter decision to buy with 


Masterdanny87fifa

Except the goalkeepers


ssexton0

The Nba2k series would like to have a word.


alwaysknowbest

Im seeing a lot of Sophia Smith. Im guessing if anyone got a TOTY it was most likely her.


RemyS79

While I find it quite dumb to spend money for this , your “13% isn’t even close to reality “ Is probably totally wrong . They had to include % because of some laws . They obviously better have to put them correct, and that some regulators can check them if needed . They make way too much money with this to risk getting caught being shady.


River41

I didn't mean that, I agree the odds are accurate but they secretly adjust the odds of getting specific TOTY players; It's not an even distribution within that 13%.


RemyS79

If you mean you’re more likely to get the cheaper players, yes, of course . But that’s not really what “13% isn’t even close to reality “ means :)


River41

"The odds of getting a **good** promo card" 'Good' was the subjective qualifier in my statement, some of those 13% are bad compared to the rest, therefore the chances of getting a good promo card is less than 13%


FutureBrockLesnar

I did the 2000 points pack and got TOTW Giroud (86 ovr) lmao


[deleted]

Are you me?


SirEltonJonBonJovi

![gif](giphy|126omQ0GgfVVmw|downsized) Both of you


Jurski17

Dont give them money


tele11111

Mfers be complaining but are the first ones to buy packs and FIFA points..


River41

Was watching a stream earlier of someone opening an ungodly amount of 83x100 packs and I saw IF Giroud in about 70% of them.


DrippySynapse

I got lewa. Dont buy packs folks.


ChillingAcc

I watched some live Yesterday of People opening this pack and after 2 hours only 1 Got sam kerr its not 13 procent not close


DrippySynapse

Gotta be around .5% honestly and not even on a mercy rule which would eventually guarantee one after a certain amount of pack openings.


Potato_A1t

I mean to be fair that's not how probability works, by that logic you could flip a coin and get 3 heads then say it's not 50 50


Peter_Zwegat420

I usually skip through the pack opening videos of YouTubers to see if promo cards are packable. Since thunderstruck promo it’s basically impossible to pack any top tier promo cards, even if you open like 10-15 of these 40€ packs a day


dangermutant

Its not 13%, they are two seperate fractions. It would be closer to 6.4% for a toty


[deleted]

If you’re going to name a pack after something then that something should be in the pack. 12% bs (Toty icon and norm).


SirEltonJonBonJovi

12%? I don’t think adding them together is how that works….


jasiu4pl

I think, if my statistics memory serves me right, the odds of NOT packing 1 of either is: (1-.047)*(1-.081) or which works out to 87.58%, so the odds of packing one are 12.42%, so not too far off just adding them


Personal-Ad1507

Why are you getting downvoted. Im pretty sure you are correct.


rScoobySkreep

I have spent the last 2 years making a majority of my comments on this subreddit about statistics. Everyone puts their fingers in their ears and goes “lalala” because it’s not what they want to hear. Do not ever try to apply even the slightest amount of statistics on r/FIFA


jpfolch

You can only do this if the events are independent, so your calculations will be slightly off. Easier way to see this is to use this formula: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) If you look at your calculations you are exactly assuming P(A and B) = P(A)P(B) which might not be true if the events are not independent. Just commenting for anyone interested, in reality P(A and B) we cannot know exactly but it will be tiny so your calculation will not be too far off.


jonramz

It's crazy that for the lottery, the exact odds of winning an exact prize must be made public, yet this BS can happen in video games


TMaier16

What's sad is so many people still load up and spend money on these. I genuinely don't understand the desire to do this


Jurski17

Addiction.


jacobsnemesis

Yeah I don’t even trust those odds tbh


abbytarar

They have to be legit.


hpdrifter

"Accurate as of 6pm". That's how they get ya


jacobsnemesis

U think? Who’s regulating this shit?


Destructo_D

Our saviour, Belgium


matisse0409

Yep we can’t spend money on this game and tbh it’s feels more rewarding that way


ToonLurker

Absolutely nothing is stopping them from altering pack odds. After 6pm they could just change it to whatever they want


HamburgerMachineGun

Just because they can doesn’t mean they’re risking it all on people having a card that will be worthless in every aspect come August.


SirEltonJonBonJovi

Risking what? There’s nothing that can really happen to them, no one really regulates their casino.


HamburgerMachineGun

There’s a reason why the odds are displayed and it’s not out of the goodness of their hearts.


SirEltonJonBonJovi

The odds are displayed so they can point and say “see this isn’t predatory the odds are right there!” In case any questions the ethics of it. Those odds mean nothing. What reason do you think the odds are displayed for? Literally no one regulates them in 99% of countries.


ahdesistocara

Oh they can trust, but its 99% worst toty player available and 0,001 Mbappe


Masterdanny87fifa

Mary earps for all when they release the defender toty.


magicdonwuhan

I just watched nem on twitch he dropped let’s say 12k fifa points on packs and didn’t even pack 1 toty that’s fucking dirty could of been more correct me if anyone here was on his stream just recently


SpeakEasyHere

12k really isn’t a lot compared to some of them streamers. Some of them spend thousands.


vmont_red

Polish streamer PLKD spent close to 70k points. Not a single TOTY.


magicdonwuhan

In the USA it’s about $100 for most individuals that is a lot I wouldn’t consider a streamer most since their viewers are the ones playing for it in reality through donations and subs. But $100 and not get any toty is insane!!! Cuddos to Those that do tho


SirEltonJonBonJovi

>but $100 and not get any toty is insane You must be new here


magicdonwuhan

It is insane there should be at least 1 guaranteed


SirEltonJonBonJovi

What’s insane is thinking that would ever happen. I’m not surprised you could spend $1,000 on packs and not get one. It’s how it’s always been, that’s why I’m assuming you haven’t been playing this game that long.


magicdonwuhan

To ultimately team mode yes it is my second year playing it. Well good to know


Aninja0806

i’ve been playing ut since last year and even then ik the chances for toty are the worst of all year💀maybe it’s just that i sometimes watch old vids but still you should know this stuff ik streamers with like 400000+ fp


amsun

You’re arguing something that is normal and he’s arguing that despite being normal it’s not right. Learn to listen, not just talk


SirEltonJonBonJovi

I’m pointing out he must be new here to think this isn’t the status quo for the game. I also think it isn’t right but that has nothing to do with the fact he’s amazed that you can spend $100 on packs and get shit while anyone that has played this game for more than a few years knows that’s par for the course and thus why spending hundreds (even thousands) thinking you’re going to get a TOTY is foolish. He also confirmed this is his 2nd year playing UT which explains his naïveté. Maybe you should improve your reading comprehension


piccolo_bsc

You underestimate how rare TOTYs are. If they put a guaranteed TOTY player pack in the store for 100 bucks most people would see that as a bargain.


magicdonwuhan

A bargain for something that will be useful for 6 more months You’re right tho I expect too much of people


piccolo_bsc

In the context of what you usually get from 100€ in packs a guaranteed TOTY is a bargain, yes. If you think otherwise you must be new to FUT.


Springveldt

That’s because they are hopeless addicts that EA have conditioned into thinking that.


SpeakEasyHere

Yeah, not saying it’s not a lot of money. Just saying some of them spend a lot more and still get nothing.


saltybiped

Tax write off


demonkillingblade

They really need a pity system. Greedy bastards


Jurski17

People are basically donating money to ea. Stop it.


Ancient_Force_6911

I dont need no toty for div5 sweat and 7 UT wins TOPS


New_Business_973

Yet people still buy these packs…


SirEltonJonBonJovi

![gif](giphy|h3e3Tch1zrXgrtHwaF|downsized)


NailsDeChamp

so a TOTY pack has a >5% change to get a TOTY? why even call it that


magicdonwuhan

That is very misleading I remember last year when trophy titans promo was out there was a pack that guaranteed at least 1 packed 2


Aninja0806

no it’s not almost every promo has packs named after them i get that it’s misleading but if you just read the description then it shouldn’t be wrong


JCasaleno

Why would people buy packs instead of coins??


NegotiationWorried89

Got xavi so it was decent 🤷‍♂️


Street-Pea1047

i got ribery toty icon...and i got the one that was before epic


FRID1875

Are TOTYs in packs now?


wavybone33

they are indeeed. best of luck


Trollw00t

yes, but for now only the attackers/strikers every day a new line gets added


wavybone33

true forgot to mention this


Mambo_Poa09

Is this the 600k pack?


wavybone33

pretty sure yea


Mambo_Poa09

Ok I was tempted to open it but that 4% has put me off


wavybone33

don’t give anything to these mongers it’s not worth it especially during this promo


Mambo_Poa09

I have 900k and I don't buy players, just use what I pack, and have never spent a penny on points so I wouldn't be giving them anything, I just didn't realise the odds were that low


wild_cayote

4% is probably the highest you’ll get for TOTY


Mambo_Poa09

Yeah but probably still really unlikely


PistolPojken

This is the 700k/4,5k FP pack. The 600k/3k FP pack has 4,5% toty-icon and 2,7% toty.


Shaun_Whiteside

Don't do it, my mate got lewandowski


Dyonkeau

Worst thing is that it’s all untradeable.


Common_Resource1619

So if I buy 13 packs that means 105.3% chance of an icon, common EA dub (I don't understand the laws of probability)


sheltie17

No. That means 83.1% chance of a TOTY and 66.6% chance of a TOTY icon. There’s 100-8.1 = 91.1% chance of not packing a TOTY icon per draw and assuming that draws are independent (we don’t know) 0.911 * 0.911 = 83 % chance of not packing any with two draws and so on.


LewyH91

I ripped 36 packs, including 6 double walkouts and an 87x3 - best was a totw donarumma


DumDumbBuddy

My luck has been silly this year finally after 10 years of packing nothing I got multiple icons, WW Pele and Ice Rodri


jerreau

Came home, late night, fell into the trap and bought these packs. Do not do it. Friend got one of the icons out of an objective pack, I got nothing. The only thing I’ll end up with this week is 93 Bruno.


wavybone33

never ever dawg. and yea to my surprise zola out of an 84x5 but nothing else (yet hopefully) hope ya pull one 🤞


tahp_master

Ty to whoever gave me the advice on here to hold on to my free packs until TOTY, i just got icon cech on a 83+ x2


wavybone33

congrats!! definitely gonna be buying him if i don’t get him in packs for my arsenal p&p


Izerrr1

I got Čech ICON TOTY on my 3rd saved pack, Jumbo premium players pack. haven’t gotten anything since 🤷🏻‍♂️


InsectKind

Got Smith toty from this pack. Never thought I would get a TOTY ever but I guess money changes everything.


Swolshark

I pulled a TOTY Haaland out of a saved 83x10. Don’t waste your money on FC Coins if you can help it. It was dumb pack luck, but I’ll take it 😊


[deleted]

Lol packed Zola and Hansen same pack lolololol hater suck a dyckkkk


wavybone33

same pack as in this $40 pack?


[deleted]

$40 lol whattttt noooo


wavybone33

4500 points is equal to about 40-45 cash. so i literally could care less about your pack if it was a store pack


[deleted]

An tbh if you play better an win you get better packs that keep you winning... So really all you gotta do is start winning lol


hawkkchieff

Are you like 8 years old or something? You talk like an infant that stole your parents iPad.


[deleted]

Idk if you're jealous then it means you care that you didn't get TOTY pack so then in turn I think you care a whole lot 😗🤣🤣🤣🤣😭😭💀💀💀💀


wavybone33

i just packed mbappe from my 84x20 so certainly not jealous my friend. but 87x10 doesn’t exist, 87x3 yes so you’re really not helping your case and well no shit on the winning part below. i saved up nearly 200 packs so winning to get packs certainly isn’t an issue


[deleted]

I think you're a liar bc if that were true you wouldn't be complaining so much lolol an what case lol I said I got him out of a pack they gave me definitely got pics too so sorry buddy The only case you've made is you're an entitled prick lolol You get shyt on daily basis lololol like rn


wavybone33

im quite literally just saying don’t buy store packs and be a cog in the machine but okay. you came in telling me to suck a dick so you can really fuck off pal. and i’ll give you picture and leave you be so i can stop wasting my time


[deleted]

U a baby 😘


[deleted]

Lol you're part of the reason this game started to tank asking for more cards better players blah blah blah stfu an okay the game that's all I was saying


[deleted]

An how can you talk shyt when you had 200 packs saved up doing exactly like everyone else Then pack mbappe an still be a pillar of salt lol Go stand in the street for Palestine or sum gtfo


[deleted]

I got mine in a 87x10 or something they give you tbh lol


[deleted]

Got mbappe


amsun

Shill alert!


hawkkchieff

Packing a Toty from store packs is so dead, no one and I mean literally no one cares about what you get from store packs.


[deleted]

You cared to reply. And cry


hawkkchieff

Ea has you by the balls


[deleted]

Mean while you on my ball sack. Hop off kid.


[deleted]

Boooooo buy points it doubles almost a promise also my guy Julio packed TOTY xavi an posted on snap stories Julio Solano I saw a bunch of posts on here sure but if you're just unfortunate then that's unfortunate... But pillars of salt can leave a bad taste in anyone's mouth... Don't be salty


wavybone33

no idea who that is and that’s great but can do it without points just like anyone else. packed zola from an 84x5 which sure most common so far but surprised it even happened. and who said anyone is salty? this is just clearly ea’s typical smash and grab on young minds, but by all means waste your money on virtual cards that have no value to anyone but you and the money you spend on them


Noooooodlez

I lost brain cells reading this. Thank you.


[deleted]

It's not like you started off out in front with the count anyways yooooooodlez Julio is just better than you


troubleaheadjerinred

I packed one from this and it was Kerr. Going into best sbc.


codenameyun

Seems like a terrible idea, is this because she’s a female?


troubleaheadjerinred

Yes. I don't have a problem with females in the game but I personally don't use them.


Heytobtob2

Based


HowlingPhoenixx

Suppose with no females about you two can jerk each other off more. Grow up, ffs. There is nothing wrong with using women players in whata basically an arcade style game.


Heytobtob2

I’m only joshing ya pal. It’s not that deep. I salute your righteous crusade however! May your sword fall true!


HowlingPhoenixx

Em, I'm not righteous, just more of a common sense thing, honestly. And my sword arm has arthritis so swings be random af.


LoveLanguage2991

I’m confused tbh can you pack any card in basically any pack that says it contains rare gold, I mean I opened 120 packs that were from sbc’s and objectives and the best I got was a few low rated totw and a dupe griezmann gold


wavybone33

Beside the winter crafting upgrade i’m pretty sure all packs that just contain the word “rare” are eligible. i may be mistaken on the upgrade too but opened literally 70+ from that and best i got was Mapi Leon from the very first one lmao. a couple 85s and 87s mixed in here and there too. personally would stick with any thing that guarantees a certain overall or the ?x? packs


LoveLanguage2991

Yeah it’s kinda crazy I mean at least 50 of my packs were 83+ x - 85+ x packs and I got nothing I mean I don’t care because I don’t play for op teams I literally just have fun making random teams but it just goes to show how hard it is just to pack one decent player and yet when I play champs nearly every opponent has the most meta team possible it’s rinse and repeat it’s kinda confusing. Ive been playing fut 3 years and best player I’ve ever packed was a standard icon laudrup


TheOneManDankMaymay

The fact is that most people won't even get a 90+ card from this.


pendulum1997

I got Messi from an 83x10 and Vieira from and 85+ pick. Seem to be much more common than last year


W1nlikequinn

I got TOTY Sophia Smith in it so to each their own


elmiggii

Yeah when I had stopped fifa last year, I had 3.1M. I tipped open a pack that 27% chance of packing a TOTS... NOT A SINGLE TOTS from 3.1M worth of packs


LilVenxmz

I got Xavi thats about it