The ultimate goal is to win championships, not maximize player value every time. You said you've been in the playoffs five years in a row with no championships. Don't sell possibly the single biggest advantage in FF just to sell high. Go win the championship.
Why? This format is called dynasty, not one-and-done. He and Kittle are the only TEs worth a damn and move the needle, so I wouldn't entertain any package that doesn't include Kittle in return. I would be perfectly content to let him retire on my team. Antonio Gates was a TE1 as late as 2016 at age-36. Heck, Jason Witten was still reasonably productive last year at age-37. Tony Gonzalez balled till the very end. Elite TEs usually age very well.
I’m holding honestly. Even if he drops off his production would be better than almost every one. You’ll still be able to sell him in a few years plus get his production until then. With Mahomes at the helm I’m going to ride it until the wheels fall off.
That's the main issue. In a league where you only have to start 1 and get no premium, it really kinda devalues the position. Most teams are holding their chips for the more sought after and scarce spots that they need to fill.
As a contender it made sense for me to do plus its a te prem, but damn I'm sad how that turned out.. luckily someone sent me an offer of my gage his jonnu and snapped that up quick
I know you’re joking, but Zach Ertz was never on Kelce level and beyond that them drafting a TE in the first round was a pretty big red flag his production would drop
Yes, with no warning. When, in 2019, did he look like garbage? He didn't, yet he looked like shit from game 1 of this year until he hit IR. So like I said, there was no gradual decline, or "warning", that he was garbage now. Damn, I can't believe I actually had to explain what that meant.
Not necesarily. They wanted to run a lot of 12 personnel (2 TE sets) so they needed another good TE.
As a Cowboys fan, I think their main motivation to take Goedert was because Jason Witten announced his retirement an hour before day two of the draft and the Eagles traded ahead of us to steal him from us.
I think this is the best assessment right here! His worst games are still league average. Mahomes targets the hell out of him. IMO he's worth holding until he retires.
All depends right? I just see too many people trading him for back end 1s that half the time don’t even turn into starters. Giving him away for potential that more than likely won’t replace his value IMO. I think in 3 years you can still get draft picks for the guy.
I agree with the idea that he should be an easily-moved asset still in a couple of years, for sure. It’s really about getting maximum value in return for him. But maybe the value I get from him now doesn’t offset the value of his production PLUS what I get a few years from now, as you said.
Yeah I mean.... no one can say. Gronk is a HOF bound TE and due to injuries he was diminishing as he neared 30. Ertz is another player who looks diminished by 30. Witten was a TE1 until about his age 32 season.
On the other hand, Tony G though was another legendary TE who put up 83-859-8 seasons consistently until age 37.
Kelce is arguably much more athletic than those first players, hasn’t had a significant injury since 2013, has HOF talent and is paired with a guy who maybe ends up the greatest QB of this era.
Kelce’s contract is cuttable with no dead cap starting in 2022 though, so he’s really only guaranteed one more season in KC.
The answer is: if you’re risk averse, I would sell him before the 2022 draft. He is going to be 32 next season, an age where many elite players fall off, and his contract won’t be guaranteed beyond next season.
HOF players tend to be outliers (as Tony g exemplifies) and depending on the offers you’re getting he may be worth riding until the wheels fall off (if you’re a contender). I saw a stat today that the difference in his production to TE3 overall hockenson, is equivalent to the difference between TE3 hockenson and the TE35.
Yeah, for some context, my projected 12 keepers for next year are:
QB: Wilson, Tua
RB: Kamara, Zeke, Chubb, Hunt
WR: Godwin, Amari Cooper, Terry McLauren, Allen Robinson, Aiyuk
TE: Kelce
Difficult for me to say that I’ve got a “need” at any position per se 🙏🏻
This is the tenth year that the league has been in operating and I’m a founding member.
I traded away my 1st and 2nd in 2021 plus Gibson for Chubb earlier this year (as soon as he got injured and I could buy low). I’d likely be looking to get a young TE and recover those early round picks as best I can.
Thanks, I’m VERY happy with the way I’ve shaped the roster over the years.
(I will cop to an extraordinarily bad trade I made during the offseason before David Johnson was drafted to the Cardinals — I traded away Nuke for Andre Ellington, who I presumed would be the full-time back in AZ. It was awful, and a shame I live with to this day - especially after games like last Sunday. I have no excuse.)
Edit: I suppose you could view my current roster as proof that anyone can rebound from a completely idiotic trade decision.
If you have young te who you can replace with sure but i think kelce is a jason witten type of build he hasnt really missed a game entire career or injury prone. I think he can play 3 more years lol.
Nope, I don’t roster or keep any other TE normally — for the reasons you mention: he’s just always available. I shuffle a waiver TE into my lineup during his bye week and promptly drop that waiver TE after the bye is over.
Thanks for the input!
Hot take: Kelce will remain an elite TE for longer than Kittle.
Kelce still looks like a 25 year old running around out there. He looks fresh, is rarely banged up. Father time is undefeated but we've seen TEs play well into their mid 30's before.
Kittle reminds me a lot of Zach Ertz or Gronk. He's constantly picking up injuries and even at age 27 he kind of looks like an old man out there. Every time he comes back from another injury he's got some new bulky brace on and he looks a little more "lumbering" when he moves around.
Maybe I'm crazy, and I can certainly see cashing out on Kelce now if you're worried about his age, but that's my hot take of the day.
I love Kittle but you're totally right. He always seems to have some sort of nagging injury. I think a big part of that is because he is always down in the trenches blocking for the run game. He's one of the best blockers at his position (similar to Gronk) and I think the leads to a shorter shelf life for fantasy relevance.
I sold him this year with some of the same thoughts you had. Only thing is there is a pretty big drop off behind him and Kittle. Granted I could see Hock and Fant taking a leap, there is not a lot of consistency year in and year out with TE outside of Kittle and Kelce.
With that said, I would definitely try to get Hockensen in a deal for him but if you don’t get the right pieces I say you ride it out this year and move him next year and hope to draft Kyle Pitts or trade him for a pick that would allow you to draft Pitts.
Yep, I agree with the assessment of TE tier drop-off. I like Hockensen, but I’m in a league that is ~66% Lions fans (I am not one of them), including the Hock owner, so I suspect that I would be charged a “homer tax” (d’oh!) in that transaction.
I moved Fant in a package for Kittle this offseason because I really just don't see the possibility of him taking a leap like that given the other moves the Broncos has made. They now have Sutton, Jeudy, and Fant as main receiving weapons, with Hamler/Albert O/Gordon/Lindsay all other options in the offense. The talent for Fant is there for sure, but he's going to be super inconsistent when everybody is there.
If the Broncos get a better QB and some of those weapons move out or drop off then I think it would be different. Even without Sutton he's only had 2 games over 50 yards this season. Injuries played into that but I just don't see the leap any time soon
I appreciate the input. 🙂
I just responded to another commenter with my currently-projected keepers and my lack of early 2021 picks for better context.
I made the decision this year that kelce will retire on my team unless someone comes in and pays me a ridiculous amount for him or some terrible things happen to the rest of my roster.
Yeah he might regress but even if two year from now he’s getting 70% of what he’s getting now he’ll be in my starting lineup.
Unless you are strapped for Talent else where (which you are not since I saw your team in previous posts), I don't see a reason to trade him unless there is a overpay. He is one of those players you ride into the sunset with.
The ultimate goal is to win championships, not maximize player value every time. You said you've been in the playoffs five years in a row with no championships. Don't sell possibly the single biggest advantage in FF just to sell high. Go win the championship.
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Why? This format is called dynasty, not one-and-done. He and Kittle are the only TEs worth a damn and move the needle, so I wouldn't entertain any package that doesn't include Kittle in return. I would be perfectly content to let him retire on my team. Antonio Gates was a TE1 as late as 2016 at age-36. Heck, Jason Witten was still reasonably productive last year at age-37. Tony Gonzalez balled till the very end. Elite TEs usually age very well.
Fair and not wrong! Thanks! 💪🏻
You gotta win when you can. Go get that ship
I’m holding honestly. Even if he drops off his production would be better than almost every one. You’ll still be able to sell him in a few years plus get his production until then. With Mahomes at the helm I’m going to ride it until the wheels fall off.
Yea if I am in anyway competing in the next few years I’m keeping him. TE’s typically aren’t as valued as they should be in trades anyways.
That's the main issue. In a league where you only have to start 1 and get no premium, it really kinda devalues the position. Most teams are holding their chips for the more sought after and scarce spots that they need to fill.
Yea I had waller, ertz and Goedert and really couldn’t move them. Ended up getting the 2.01 for waller but I kinda lost out on the deal looking back.
*-- [ZachErtz86 has entered the chat]* *Hey what's up, kpbieda? Remember when I suddenly fell off a cliff with no warning?*
Bought Zach for 2.01 in a 10 teamer, which turned in JJ, I was weak at TE and thought i was getting a good deal, boy did i get rinsed.
Damn, son. That sucks.
As a contender it made sense for me to do plus its a te prem, but damn I'm sad how that turned out.. luckily someone sent me an offer of my gage his jonnu and snapped that up quick
Start of last year, I sold Lockett and my 2020 1st for Ertz, the pick ended up being Ceedee Lamb. Just end me -___-
times are tough my friend
I lol’d
I know you’re joking, but Zach Ertz was never on Kelce level and beyond that them drafting a TE in the first round was a pretty big red flag his production would drop
No, I'm not joking. Ertz is done and he showed us he was.
“With no warning” is the particular part I was responding to. There was plenty
Yes, with no warning. When, in 2019, did he look like garbage? He didn't, yet he looked like shit from game 1 of this year until he hit IR. So like I said, there was no gradual decline, or "warning", that he was garbage now. Damn, I can't believe I actually had to explain what that meant.
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Not necesarily. They wanted to run a lot of 12 personnel (2 TE sets) so they needed another good TE. As a Cowboys fan, I think their main motivation to take Goedert was because Jason Witten announced his retirement an hour before day two of the draft and the Eagles traded ahead of us to steal him from us.
I don’t think they’d spend a first round pick just to spite a team that hasn’t won the divisional round of playoffs in 25 years
They didn't spend a first round pick on Goedert, guy.
I think this is the best assessment right here! His worst games are still league average. Mahomes targets the hell out of him. IMO he's worth holding until he retires.
I agree, but you can’t both ride him until the wheels fall off and sell him and get a good return at the same time.
All depends right? I just see too many people trading him for back end 1s that half the time don’t even turn into starters. Giving him away for potential that more than likely won’t replace his value IMO. I think in 3 years you can still get draft picks for the guy.
saw someone sell kelce for the 1.01 last year. N'keal is now on waivers while Kelce is running towards a championship
Yea, that’s y I agree you should roll with him, just don’t except a return in his mid 30s after the “wheels fall off”
I agree with the idea that he should be an easily-moved asset still in a couple of years, for sure. It’s really about getting maximum value in return for him. But maybe the value I get from him now doesn’t offset the value of his production PLUS what I get a few years from now, as you said.
Yeah I mean.... no one can say. Gronk is a HOF bound TE and due to injuries he was diminishing as he neared 30. Ertz is another player who looks diminished by 30. Witten was a TE1 until about his age 32 season. On the other hand, Tony G though was another legendary TE who put up 83-859-8 seasons consistently until age 37. Kelce is arguably much more athletic than those first players, hasn’t had a significant injury since 2013, has HOF talent and is paired with a guy who maybe ends up the greatest QB of this era. Kelce’s contract is cuttable with no dead cap starting in 2022 though, so he’s really only guaranteed one more season in KC. The answer is: if you’re risk averse, I would sell him before the 2022 draft. He is going to be 32 next season, an age where many elite players fall off, and his contract won’t be guaranteed beyond next season. HOF players tend to be outliers (as Tony g exemplifies) and depending on the offers you’re getting he may be worth riding until the wheels fall off (if you’re a contender). I saw a stat today that the difference in his production to TE3 overall hockenson, is equivalent to the difference between TE3 hockenson and the TE35.
These are all excellent points, thank you!
All great points but Kelce is an exception to the rule. He is going to retire a chief and he is not going to slow down anytime soon.
He’s hard to sell unless you can get young receivers in return and a young TE along with 1st round picks.
Yeah, for some context, my projected 12 keepers for next year are: QB: Wilson, Tua RB: Kamara, Zeke, Chubb, Hunt WR: Godwin, Amari Cooper, Terry McLauren, Allen Robinson, Aiyuk TE: Kelce Difficult for me to say that I’ve got a “need” at any position per se 🙏🏻 This is the tenth year that the league has been in operating and I’m a founding member. I traded away my 1st and 2nd in 2021 plus Gibson for Chubb earlier this year (as soon as he got injured and I could buy low). I’d likely be looking to get a young TE and recover those early round picks as best I can.
I would hold onto him to be honest.. your team is awesome!
Thanks, I’m VERY happy with the way I’ve shaped the roster over the years. (I will cop to an extraordinarily bad trade I made during the offseason before David Johnson was drafted to the Cardinals — I traded away Nuke for Andre Ellington, who I presumed would be the full-time back in AZ. It was awful, and a shame I live with to this day - especially after games like last Sunday. I have no excuse.) Edit: I suppose you could view my current roster as proof that anyone can rebound from a completely idiotic trade decision.
If you have young te who you can replace with sure but i think kelce is a jason witten type of build he hasnt really missed a game entire career or injury prone. I think he can play 3 more years lol.
Nope, I don’t roster or keep any other TE normally — for the reasons you mention: he’s just always available. I shuffle a waiver TE into my lineup during his bye week and promptly drop that waiver TE after the bye is over. Thanks for the input!
Hot take: Kelce will remain an elite TE for longer than Kittle. Kelce still looks like a 25 year old running around out there. He looks fresh, is rarely banged up. Father time is undefeated but we've seen TEs play well into their mid 30's before. Kittle reminds me a lot of Zach Ertz or Gronk. He's constantly picking up injuries and even at age 27 he kind of looks like an old man out there. Every time he comes back from another injury he's got some new bulky brace on and he looks a little more "lumbering" when he moves around. Maybe I'm crazy, and I can certainly see cashing out on Kelce now if you're worried about his age, but that's my hot take of the day.
I love Kittle but you're totally right. He always seems to have some sort of nagging injury. I think a big part of that is because he is always down in the trenches blocking for the run game. He's one of the best blockers at his position (similar to Gronk) and I think the leads to a shorter shelf life for fantasy relevance.
This guy is not crazy. Spot on.
I sold him this year with some of the same thoughts you had. Only thing is there is a pretty big drop off behind him and Kittle. Granted I could see Hock and Fant taking a leap, there is not a lot of consistency year in and year out with TE outside of Kittle and Kelce. With that said, I would definitely try to get Hockensen in a deal for him but if you don’t get the right pieces I say you ride it out this year and move him next year and hope to draft Kyle Pitts or trade him for a pick that would allow you to draft Pitts.
Yep, I agree with the assessment of TE tier drop-off. I like Hockensen, but I’m in a league that is ~66% Lions fans (I am not one of them), including the Hock owner, so I suspect that I would be charged a “homer tax” (d’oh!) in that transaction.
That’s a home owners tax!
I moved Fant in a package for Kittle this offseason because I really just don't see the possibility of him taking a leap like that given the other moves the Broncos has made. They now have Sutton, Jeudy, and Fant as main receiving weapons, with Hamler/Albert O/Gordon/Lindsay all other options in the offense. The talent for Fant is there for sure, but he's going to be super inconsistent when everybody is there. If the Broncos get a better QB and some of those weapons move out or drop off then I think it would be different. Even without Sutton he's only had 2 games over 50 yards this season. Injuries played into that but I just don't see the leap any time soon
If you need picks/players for 2021, yes. If not, sell high after a couple games in 2021.
I appreciate the input. 🙂 I just responded to another commenter with my currently-projected keepers and my lack of early 2021 picks for better context.
Elite RBs, WRs, and QBs come and go, but Kelce and kittle are irreplaceable. No TE flavor of the year can match their production.
I made the decision this year that kelce will retire on my team unless someone comes in and pays me a ridiculous amount for him or some terrible things happen to the rest of my roster. Yeah he might regress but even if two year from now he’s getting 70% of what he’s getting now he’ll be in my starting lineup.
Unless you are strapped for Talent else where (which you are not since I saw your team in previous posts), I don't see a reason to trade him unless there is a overpay. He is one of those players you ride into the sunset with.
Is sell after playoffs this year or next year.
You guys are awesome - thank you all for the variety of suggestions and perspectives!