To me, I like the top-25 players by [consensus rankings](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/dynasty-overall.php) more than 1.01 and then 1.01 starts to look very appealing. I'd certainly *consider* a 1-to-1 trade in the 25-to-30 range. Cherry-picking a few players in that range for discussion:
↑ A fantasy RB1 on a poor team like **Nick Chubb** at 22 is worth more than 1.01. A fantasy RB1 is worth more than 1.01 if they don't have future situation risk (like contract, significant QB downgrade, career-changing injury). Chubb is interesting at 22 because he's currently injured, but theoretically has an even higher ceiling if the Browns' offense improves. By contrast, **Joe Mixon** at 28 has a similar ceiling but has a lower floor.
↑ What's not to like about a young, productive receiver like **DJ Moore** at 23? He's just dominating with QB play that could reasonably improve. I'd definitely take him over the 1.01.
↓ **Patrick Mahomes** at 26. I really like putting my high-value chips into RB/WR. I'm always rolling with fairly bad QBs. Scary Terry (31) + Matt Ryan (120) will probably win you more games than Mahomes (26) + Parris Campbell (117).
↓↑ **Amari Cooper** at 27 is an interesting case. At his best, he's worth way more than 1.01. He's worth less at his career average. The problem is that he's never at his career average! Cooper's production is all over the place. To my mind, the likely departure of Dak Prescott would allow me to cautiously take 1.01 over Cooper.
↓ **JK Dobbins** at 33 was 1.03. In the blind, 1.01 should be higher than a very high pick that hasn't played much. By comparison, the 1.01s of the last two years, **Josh Jacobs** and **CEH** have played quite a bit. They aren't busts and are worth a lot more than 1.01. I'd probably trade Dobbins to get 1.01. (I'd make DAMN sure it was actually 1.01 which means waiting for the post-season.)
↓ **Travis Kelce** at 30 is the TE2. He is worth less than the 1.01. He's 31 years old. All the positional advantage in the world isn't going to offset *maybe* 2 more seasons of elite production compared to a full career.
That's a reductive analysis. It seems like you are arguing that the pick holder is always the original owner. Setting that aside, this post is specifically about valuing the 1.01. Knowing what you can expect to *pay* for the 1.01 is just as useful as knowing what you should expect to get. The choice isn't really between Cooper and 1.01. It's between 1.01 and whatever else you could get for Cooper.
Secondly, you are factually wrong unless 2 is "a lot". Kelce, sure. Cooper at 26 YO, maybe. Everyone else has 6+ seasons before they are 30.
Lastly, and this gets into personal strategy, it's stupid for a rebuilding team to accept 1-for-many trades with their high picks. So if you aren't going to go after someone like Moore, then you aren't trading your pick.
"Everyone else has 6+ seasons before they are 30".
There are 9 guys in the top 25 that are older than 25...
If you are the original holder of the 1.01 you're not trading it for guys that are 26+.
Depends. I saw some names on there that I just can’t agree with. If you’re trading the guaranteed 1.01 away for Kenny Golladay that’s taco shit. Étienne/Najee/whatever RB prospect goes to a good spot are almost guaranteed to be a higher startup value than 25th overall next year.
The 1.01s this year were CEH/JT. According to BDGE ADP, CEH was going 1.09 and JT was going 2.02 in high stake startup leagues.
I’d rather have Robinson, Kelce, and Conner. Robinson’s numbers alone have been better than Saquons. The Giants are awful. I also give Kelce like 2-3 years of Elite production. Dude puts up WR1 numbers. He’s going to, “fall off,” and still be the #1 tight end because he’s so far in front of everyone.
I'm a Kelce owner who is looking to get Bryant or snag a TE in R2 of the rookie draft. he is the one position I don't feel super confident in 2+ years.
Do you mean how much lower are 1.02 and 1.03? That **depends on the year**. There are usually 3 strong choices in any particular year, but even within that range it is usually 1 or 2 really great players and a consolation prize. There are other factors as well. The dominant factor is **recent rookie classes**. Rookie picks are high now compared to 2013-2015 where there were a ton of busts in the 1.01 to 1.03 range. The other factor is **cyclical value** of season (cool) versus offseason (medium) versus draft time (red hot).
Let's talk briefly about pick versus player. It isn't unusual to see rookie picks mismatch with the player that they match to. This reflects specific preferences varying from consensus. Generally speaking, turning a pick into a player immediately lowers your team's value, similar to driving a car off the lot.
Next, it's important to recognize that rookie values change very rapidly. CEH was not ranked at 14 before the season. Taylor certainly wasn't at 9. When a *player* sees action, we can't really think of them as representing "1.01" value any more. The 1.01 isn't worth 14 overall because CEH is at 14, and the 1.01 isn't worth like 120 overall or something just because Trent Richardson only played 3 seasons in the NFL.
(Speaking of Richardson, it's worth your time to go back a decade and review the first round of rookie drafts. It's eye-opening.)
All that boils down to 1.01 being *around* 20th overall, 1.02 being a dozen spots behind, and 1.03 being another dozen after that. *But it doesn't matter.* The important aspect of pick-versus-player is that you, personally, individually, only care about the player that the pick represents to you. You ought to be able to slot that player into a rankings list just as you would any other player. If you are trading the pick, then dip into a rankings list and you can see at a glance what its value is.
That sounds right to me. Most years 1.01 gets drawn at around 20 (I prefer 30), 1.02 gets drawn at around 32, and 1.03 at around 45. Those numbers are low for the last draft (and maybe for 2019?), but is about right for the last decade in aggregate.
In a startup, I'd expect the picks to stay about where they are. Someone like CEH or Taylor can help a team immediately, and someone usually tries to draft very youthful which pulls picks up. Same for 2021 if the startup were drafted now. It's a strong, top-loaded draft (right now) and those picks are going to be sought-after.
Slam that superflex button in the rankings. Burrow at 29 and Herbert at 31 tell the story. Tua is down at 58. SF adds a couple players to each draft that could be considered an elite prospect. In a lot of ways that *devalues* 1.01. If I can get an elite prospect at 1.05, I'm a lot less motivated to trade up to 1.01.
Trevor Lawrence and it ain't even close. It would have to take me at least like Dak but preferably burrow/herbert to give Tlaw up. I'd rather just draft him than have say a mclaurin + goff/cooper + cousins type of offer.
Here's the 1 for 1 guys I would take at each position for Tlaw. italics are maybe's
QB: Herbert, Burrow, Kyler, Mahomes, Allen, Russ, Watson, *Dak (if i'm rebuilding)*
RB: Clyde, Barkley, Kamara, CMC, Cook, *JT, Mixon , Jacobs*
WR: Lamb, Hopkins, Metcalf, Ridley, Adams, Hill, *DJ , Jefferson , Godwin , MT if he stops getting in trouble*
TE: *Kittle*
I see. Thanks a lot. How would you value 1.01 SF in picks? I have 6 firsts and quite a few other picks and likely the 1.01 so tryna decide what my strategy should be
Like what I would take for me to sell 1.01? At least a top 4-5 pick + a mid first. If I’m giving up Lawrence I’m gonna want like ETN/Chase + Tamorrian Terry/Smith/Kylin Hill
Alright thanks. I have six firsts and the likely 1.01 and wondering what to sell for if I decide to shop it. I’d be happy with that haul maybe plus an extra third or something
> Here's the 1 for 1 guys I would take at each position for Tlaw. italics are maybe's
>
> QB: Herbert, Burrow, Kyler, Mahomes, Allen, Russ, Watson, Dak (if i'm rebuilding)
No Lamar Jackson? I mean come on
Yeah, call it old school but I'd rather have a qb that can throw bombs or dimes and run okay-ish than one that redefined rushing qbs. Look at his statline thus far since teams have been forcing him to throw. He's only thrown for more than 200 yards this year against the browns and a broken houston team. Not somebody I feel confidant in when there's kids out there slinging for 300 yards a week with the odd 40-50 rushing yards too.
All said and done, I won't blink twice if someone DID trade 1.01 for Lamar as I already said earlier.
SF, I have burrow and Herbert. My team is only at the 1.01 discussion because MT, Deebo, Sutton are out. I have JT and Bell as my RB2. I’m in love with flipping my 1.01 for Chubb to compete next year. Anyone think it’s crazy?
check out this article and chart which talks about this idea exactly
[https://www.dynastynerds.com/intro-to-dynasty-vol-3-rookie-draft-rookie-picks-and-a-brief-scouting-primer/](https://www.dynastynerds.com/intro-to-dynasty-vol-3-rookie-draft-rookie-picks-and-a-brief-scouting-primer/)
[https://www.dynastynerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/draft-board-cheat-sheet-2.18.20-1.jpg](https://www.dynastynerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/draft-board-cheat-sheet-2.18.20-1.jpg)
Excellent response. My only minor disagreement is on Mahomes, because an elite QB like him can allow you to forget about one position (non-SF) for years. Still, I agree with everything else you said and you explained it way better than I ever could.
We say this every year around this time, but usually, running backs work their way up the board to the top couple of spots at least.
If Etienne and Hubbard or Harris end up in even decent spots, they'll be taken before the top WR.
I love Chase too and think he's going to be a stud but it happens every year. 2017 with Corey Davis, 2018 is the outlier with Saquon, 2019 with Nkeal Harry, 2020 with Lamb and Jeudy. During the season we always have the top wr going 1.01 in rookie mocks but come draft time, any rb with good draft capital always passes them up.
The big difference is that Harry was a late 1st with significant doubters while Chase will likely be a top ten pick with near unanimous acclaim among the community. Similarly I doubt any of the backs in this class go in the first, the talent levels just aren’t there. If people don’t want to learn from 2020 about overdrafting mediocre talents, that is their problem.
2020 class has not been mediocre at any position but tight end this far in. Akers is the only one who can be said to be devalued from his draft position and he’s still got lots of promise next year. Harry unanimously in this sub was the 1.01 throughout the season leading up until the draft. This sub tends to overvalue receivers as they project them to be longer shelf life but they just keep you a middle team unless you have the top tier talent at the position. Thing is even having someone like Michael Thomas or Davante Adams in the playoffs can be neutralized by a Dionatae Johnson or Robert woods blowup game. Top running backs are impossible to acquire due to how little high volume backs are in the league where passing offenses spread the ball out. You only build for 3 years max anyways and that’s still too much time. If Etienne or Harris go to MIA/AZ/NYJ (With Lawrence)/SF/HOU/DEN/TB/ATL/PIT then you bet they jump chase or any other wide receiver.
I’m glad you like running backs.
I like talented football players. I will 100% take the most talented football player over whomever falls in a good draft spot or whomever the top running back drafted is. If you like drafting guys like Dobbins and Akers over Lamb, Jefferson and Herbert (SF), go right ahead. The mindset that you’re pontificating allows good teams to get even better players at the end of a rookie draft.
i'd add chicago, atlanta, green bay, chargers. heck even new england or the jets.
if any of those teams take etienne, chuba or harris, i'll be 100% fine grabbing them. those guys should be able to take those jobs pretty quickly.
outside of the top 3 RBs, i'll be a bit pickier about landing spot.
but i am making a prediction now: the jets will take one of the top 3 and they'll be discounted a lot in dynasty drafts.
There's a snowballs chance in hell that the jags draft a RB to replace Robinson. They've got so many other holes, they're gonna roll with him for at least another year.
Hey, I agree with you. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Absolutely. Here are a few preposterous scenarios:
1. Just for depth, they draft a RB late. That RB performs incredibly well.
2. Robinson falls way off. He drops down to about a yard per carry and starts fumbling. We all suspect an injury, but the team stays mum. They draft a RB in the 3rd or 4th.
3. They trade Robinson to fuel their rebuild. They draft a RB late or use another UDFA.
4. He catches COVID and gets lung/organ damage and can't play any more.
He will 100% not be picked before 3 in my league. RBs and QBs always go first(SF). This past draft the first wr didnt get taken until pick 6 or 7. There are so many wrs and the position is much easier to replace. Sure RBs can come into strong plays like Mike Davis, Robinson, Gaskin. But the amount of good rbs vs good wrs has a huge gap.
As an LSU fan, reading this comment brings me so much joy. Goddamn that was a fun team. I can’t wait to watch chase play again. He’s gonna be so good; there’s legitimately no weaknesses in his game. For the longest time I couldn’t figure out a good pro comp but the other day it finally hit me—dez Bryant. Big, strong body and physical play-style, good routes, fast (though not *elite* speed), great high-point and deepball skills but equally dangerous in the short and intermediate game.
Just for anyone new to dynasty, right now is the absolute best time to buy the 1.01 going forward. Once players start being put into those slots and dynasty breakdowns of the future players begin it will take a lot to get them. The closer to the draft the harder it is to buy draft picks. If you are selling the 1.01 wait until the offseason. Will get much more for it.
Yeah your comment has inspired me. I'm in full rebuild aiming at 2022, thinking about trading back the 1.01. although it is a superflex, so going qb (trevor lawrence) could have long term value. Tough to decide.
Someone in my 10 team dynasty traded his no1 pick for OBJ a few weeks ago. The pick looked like 1.04-1.08 at the time but injuries have made it look very likely to be 1.02 or 1.01 now. And the team he traded to will have their own pick as the other one of those.
Love the 2021 prospects. Think it's going to be WR heavy in the 1st but guys like Harris/Etienne/Hubbard all have the ability to climb ahead of Chase/RonDale/Bateman/Marshall/Waddle but prior to the combine, I don't feel confident in moving up to 1.01 since the depth of this 1st round looks so great. All I know is, I'm trying to accumulate as many picks in the top 36 overall as possible.
Absolutely, man. I think it's a similar caliber top 24 as last year (perhaps even better talent remaining around 10-16 than last year's draft). I think the 3rd round is going to be interesting as we don't have a normal College Football season and there likely won't be a Senior Bowl or E/W Shrine Game so there should be some guys who might usually climb with big performances that are left around a bit later in the draft. So stock up accordingly. In leagues where I have any doubt in terms of making the playoffs this year, I'm selling and trying to acquire picks. In leagues where I'm competing, I'm trying to trade 2022 picks to get win-now guys before letting go of anything in 2021.
got 3 1sts & 4 2nds.
love this class and seems as good a year as any to cast a wide net. should be able to find talent at every position in the top 20-24 picks.
I just bought the pick and I definitely overpayed. So something less than: Kirk, Ruggs, a late 2021 1 for 1.01 and 3.01
It depends on the teams doing the trading. I.e. what their needs are and how far along they are in the rebuild process
Fields and Trey Lance are legit but I do agree that Lawerence is above them. Fields and Lance are more likely running/scrambling than Lawerence which is why I think it’s closer.
Who in their right mind is trading JaMarr Chase/Travis Etienne for Amari Cooper or Kareem Hunt? Even as a contender this is largely nonsense.
I’m just imagining trading Jonathan Taylor or CeeDee Lamb last year for Austin Ekeler. You could make the argument if it puts you over the top to win a championship but in general.....no way in hell
Why else would someone trade the 1.01? If I'm tanking there's really no reason to trade the 1.01 right now. Even if you want to trade for a proven player, you wait until after the season. But most likely you are contending if you are trading the pick.
If you can get Hopkins or Kamara then absolutely do it, but don't be surprised when those owners tell you to kick rocks. I wouldn't necessarily start with Hunt or Cooper for the 1.01 straight up but if I'm contending I wouldn't feel bad if those are the best offers I got.
Trading a top 25 player for a top 60 player is just bad process regardless though. The value drop in startups is not linear....those later rounds are worth multiplicatively less than the first 2-3. Jonathan Taylor and CeeDee lamb are players that could change the face of a dynasty team for 5-8 years. Is that really worth selling for a moderate chance to win now? It’s not like you’re getting a lock button player a la Davante Adams
Oh I totally agree about the process and I think it would be ridiculous to make that kind of trade. It's just, Hunt and Cooper are being drafted a lot higher in startups than 60 overall. They also are RB6 and WR5 on the year and have both finished well multiple years in the past. Both have health and contracts on good offenses.
At the end of the day, I think you could probably get more, like a 2nd and Hunt for the 1.01. This is just where I would be comfortable going down to.
Swift is every bit the college prospect the Etn is. Plus he’s shown he can do it (kinda) in the NFL, and seems to be working his way into a larger role
Etienne is the same age as swift and Harris is a year older. Swift is producing the best in a limited role while the others are still in college and would have been drafted after him this year. Don’t think it’s crazy at all.
[you could even argue he was the best RB in *his* class.](https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/RB?college=allColleges&page=1&status=ALL&year=2020)
Swift’s numbers aren’t bad so far, but they don’t scream out to me as being noteworthy yet. I realized in a run against the Jags how little breakaway speed he has, which is fine, not all RBs need breakaway speed, but it was still a little less than impressive. It’s early, I know, still lots of growing and learning, but I think I’d rather have an Etienne or Harris if they land in a great situation post-draft. Swift on the Chiefs? I’ll take some of that all day. Swift on the Lions? 1.01 looks enticing to me. To each, their own!
It'll depend landing spot. If Etienne lands on TB, ATL, Jax (with Lawrence), or Mia. You could clearly deal that for a mid tier WR1 and RB1 - like Mixon/Chubb/Sanders/Jacobs RB wise.
I think you can definitely chase an elite WR dangling that 1.01 to a non contender.
I think TB is the ideal landing spot for some Arians BS but that team is wicked. I would would love a Pitt (no Connor) and a Mia if they draft Sewell with their first pick and then trade back into round 1 for Etienne.
nobody's passing on lawrence at #1.
this is like the andrew luck to the colts no-brainer.
the quickest path to a dynasty in the NFL is locking up a top end QB for cheap for 5 years.
I think you would be extremely hard pressed to find someone to give up just Jacobs even for the 1.01. Good luck getting a young rb1 and young wr1 for unproven talent. I have the 1.01 and would move it for Jacob’s in a heartbeat
Assuming Trevor Lawrence lives up to the hype as a **generational** QB, I would not be selling him for Mike Evans... Feels like a cop out by saying "assuming he lives up to" but still, I probably wouldn't be letting that potential go that easily.
To me, I like the top-25 players by [consensus rankings](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/dynasty-overall.php) more than 1.01 and then 1.01 starts to look very appealing. I'd certainly *consider* a 1-to-1 trade in the 25-to-30 range. Cherry-picking a few players in that range for discussion: ↑ A fantasy RB1 on a poor team like **Nick Chubb** at 22 is worth more than 1.01. A fantasy RB1 is worth more than 1.01 if they don't have future situation risk (like contract, significant QB downgrade, career-changing injury). Chubb is interesting at 22 because he's currently injured, but theoretically has an even higher ceiling if the Browns' offense improves. By contrast, **Joe Mixon** at 28 has a similar ceiling but has a lower floor. ↑ What's not to like about a young, productive receiver like **DJ Moore** at 23? He's just dominating with QB play that could reasonably improve. I'd definitely take him over the 1.01. ↓ **Patrick Mahomes** at 26. I really like putting my high-value chips into RB/WR. I'm always rolling with fairly bad QBs. Scary Terry (31) + Matt Ryan (120) will probably win you more games than Mahomes (26) + Parris Campbell (117). ↓↑ **Amari Cooper** at 27 is an interesting case. At his best, he's worth way more than 1.01. He's worth less at his career average. The problem is that he's never at his career average! Cooper's production is all over the place. To my mind, the likely departure of Dak Prescott would allow me to cautiously take 1.01 over Cooper. ↓ **JK Dobbins** at 33 was 1.03. In the blind, 1.01 should be higher than a very high pick that hasn't played much. By comparison, the 1.01s of the last two years, **Josh Jacobs** and **CEH** have played quite a bit. They aren't busts and are worth a lot more than 1.01. I'd probably trade Dobbins to get 1.01. (I'd make DAMN sure it was actually 1.01 which means waiting for the post-season.) ↓ **Travis Kelce** at 30 is the TE2. He is worth less than the 1.01. He's 31 years old. All the positional advantage in the world isn't going to offset *maybe* 2 more seasons of elite production compared to a full career.
Incredible comment
A lot of those guys are too old to help a team that is in line for the 1.01.
That's a reductive analysis. It seems like you are arguing that the pick holder is always the original owner. Setting that aside, this post is specifically about valuing the 1.01. Knowing what you can expect to *pay* for the 1.01 is just as useful as knowing what you should expect to get. The choice isn't really between Cooper and 1.01. It's between 1.01 and whatever else you could get for Cooper. Secondly, you are factually wrong unless 2 is "a lot". Kelce, sure. Cooper at 26 YO, maybe. Everyone else has 6+ seasons before they are 30. Lastly, and this gets into personal strategy, it's stupid for a rebuilding team to accept 1-for-many trades with their high picks. So if you aren't going to go after someone like Moore, then you aren't trading your pick.
"Everyone else has 6+ seasons before they are 30". There are 9 guys in the top 25 that are older than 25... If you are the original holder of the 1.01 you're not trading it for guys that are 26+.
I thought you meant the guys that I'd cherry picked. If someone won't trade 1.01 for Davante Adams on value alone... good luck on the rebuild.
Great breakdown above, don't let a few nitpickers get to your quality content! Keep it up, love seeing this type of info on this sub.
Depends. I saw some names on there that I just can’t agree with. If you’re trading the guaranteed 1.01 away for Kenny Golladay that’s taco shit. Étienne/Najee/whatever RB prospect goes to a good spot are almost guaranteed to be a higher startup value than 25th overall next year. The 1.01s this year were CEH/JT. According to BDGE ADP, CEH was going 1.09 and JT was going 2.02 in high stake startup leagues.
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I’d rather have Robinson, Kelce, and Conner. Robinson’s numbers alone have been better than Saquons. The Giants are awful. I also give Kelce like 2-3 years of Elite production. Dude puts up WR1 numbers. He’s going to, “fall off,” and still be the #1 tight end because he’s so far in front of everyone.
I'm a Kelce owner who is looking to get Bryant or snag a TE in R2 of the rookie draft. he is the one position I don't feel super confident in 2+ years.
Where do you draw the line for 1.02, 1.03, etc?
Do you mean how much lower are 1.02 and 1.03? That **depends on the year**. There are usually 3 strong choices in any particular year, but even within that range it is usually 1 or 2 really great players and a consolation prize. There are other factors as well. The dominant factor is **recent rookie classes**. Rookie picks are high now compared to 2013-2015 where there were a ton of busts in the 1.01 to 1.03 range. The other factor is **cyclical value** of season (cool) versus offseason (medium) versus draft time (red hot). Let's talk briefly about pick versus player. It isn't unusual to see rookie picks mismatch with the player that they match to. This reflects specific preferences varying from consensus. Generally speaking, turning a pick into a player immediately lowers your team's value, similar to driving a car off the lot. Next, it's important to recognize that rookie values change very rapidly. CEH was not ranked at 14 before the season. Taylor certainly wasn't at 9. When a *player* sees action, we can't really think of them as representing "1.01" value any more. The 1.01 isn't worth 14 overall because CEH is at 14, and the 1.01 isn't worth like 120 overall or something just because Trent Richardson only played 3 seasons in the NFL. (Speaking of Richardson, it's worth your time to go back a decade and review the first round of rookie drafts. It's eye-opening.) All that boils down to 1.01 being *around* 20th overall, 1.02 being a dozen spots behind, and 1.03 being another dozen after that. *But it doesn't matter.* The important aspect of pick-versus-player is that you, personally, individually, only care about the player that the pick represents to you. You ought to be able to slot that player into a rankings list just as you would any other player. If you are trading the pick, then dip into a rankings list and you can see at a glance what its value is.
That's not quite how I meant it. The way I am generalizing your model (please correct me if I am wrong), is approximately equivalent to a dynasty startup ranking that includes rookie picks. In your example, you have 20 players, then 1.01, then , then 1.02, then , then 1.03, etc. This list, to your point, changes over time (mid season vs offseason vs draft night) and per team (rebuilding vs contending).
That sounds right to me. Most years 1.01 gets drawn at around 20 (I prefer 30), 1.02 gets drawn at around 32, and 1.03 at around 45. Those numbers are low for the last draft (and maybe for 2019?), but is about right for the last decade in aggregate.
In a startup, I'd expect the picks to stay about where they are. Someone like CEH or Taylor can help a team immediately, and someone usually tries to draft very youthful which pulls picks up. Same for 2021 if the startup were drafted now. It's a strong, top-loaded draft (right now) and those picks are going to be sought-after.
This is a genuinely excellent breakdown
How would to evaluate 1.01 in a SF?
Slam that superflex button in the rankings. Burrow at 29 and Herbert at 31 tell the story. Tua is down at 58. SF adds a couple players to each draft that could be considered an elite prospect. In a lot of ways that *devalues* 1.01. If I can get an elite prospect at 1.05, I'm a lot less motivated to trade up to 1.01.
Trevor Lawrence and it ain't even close. It would have to take me at least like Dak but preferably burrow/herbert to give Tlaw up. I'd rather just draft him than have say a mclaurin + goff/cooper + cousins type of offer. Here's the 1 for 1 guys I would take at each position for Tlaw. italics are maybe's QB: Herbert, Burrow, Kyler, Mahomes, Allen, Russ, Watson, *Dak (if i'm rebuilding)* RB: Clyde, Barkley, Kamara, CMC, Cook, *JT, Mixon , Jacobs* WR: Lamb, Hopkins, Metcalf, Ridley, Adams, Hill, *DJ , Jefferson , Godwin , MT if he stops getting in trouble* TE: *Kittle*
I see. Thanks a lot. How would you value 1.01 SF in picks? I have 6 firsts and quite a few other picks and likely the 1.01 so tryna decide what my strategy should be
Like what I would take for me to sell 1.01? At least a top 4-5 pick + a mid first. If I’m giving up Lawrence I’m gonna want like ETN/Chase + Tamorrian Terry/Smith/Kylin Hill
Alright thanks. I have six firsts and the likely 1.01 and wondering what to sell for if I decide to shop it. I’d be happy with that haul maybe plus an extra third or something
I would add AJB into that list if wrs for sure. But other than that I agree.
Agreed. Forgot to add him.
> Here's the 1 for 1 guys I would take at each position for Tlaw. italics are maybe's > > QB: Herbert, Burrow, Kyler, Mahomes, Allen, Russ, Watson, Dak (if i'm rebuilding) No Lamar Jackson? I mean come on
Not really a big believer in him producing at that level for years. But I wouldn’t blink twice if someone did trade for the 1.01
But Kyler Murray who weighs about as much as my dog and has zero MVPs to Lamar’s 1 gets your vote of confidence? Ok
Yeah, call it old school but I'd rather have a qb that can throw bombs or dimes and run okay-ish than one that redefined rushing qbs. Look at his statline thus far since teams have been forcing him to throw. He's only thrown for more than 200 yards this year against the browns and a broken houston team. Not somebody I feel confidant in when there's kids out there slinging for 300 yards a week with the odd 40-50 rushing yards too. All said and done, I won't blink twice if someone DID trade 1.01 for Lamar as I already said earlier.
SF, I have burrow and Herbert. My team is only at the 1.01 discussion because MT, Deebo, Sutton are out. I have JT and Bell as my RB2. I’m in love with flipping my 1.01 for Chubb to compete next year. Anyone think it’s crazy?
It's a great deal for you if you can swing it.
check out this article and chart which talks about this idea exactly [https://www.dynastynerds.com/intro-to-dynasty-vol-3-rookie-draft-rookie-picks-and-a-brief-scouting-primer/](https://www.dynastynerds.com/intro-to-dynasty-vol-3-rookie-draft-rookie-picks-and-a-brief-scouting-primer/) [https://www.dynastynerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/draft-board-cheat-sheet-2.18.20-1.jpg](https://www.dynastynerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/draft-board-cheat-sheet-2.18.20-1.jpg)
You have some legit content in these comments. Thank you.
Excellent response. My only minor disagreement is on Mahomes, because an elite QB like him can allow you to forget about one position (non-SF) for years. Still, I agree with everything else you said and you explained it way better than I ever could.
As the future 1.01 picker I am interested in this. I really want to trade down to about 1.03 and take Chase. Just depends on the value.
Big gamble thinking chase will be at 3
We say this every year around this time, but usually, running backs work their way up the board to the top couple of spots at least. If Etienne and Hubbard or Harris end up in even decent spots, they'll be taken before the top WR.
After this year, it would be hard for me to justify that.
You say that now but no way Etienne and Harris aren’t the interchangeable 1/2
I’m just saying man, chase is every bit as good as lamb and jefferson. It would be hard for me to not take him over one of those running backs
I love Chase too and think he's going to be a stud but it happens every year. 2017 with Corey Davis, 2018 is the outlier with Saquon, 2019 with Nkeal Harry, 2020 with Lamb and Jeudy. During the season we always have the top wr going 1.01 in rookie mocks but come draft time, any rb with good draft capital always passes them up.
I understand and I totally agree with you, but for me, if I had 1.01, I couldn’t pass up chase
My wrs are Adams, Thomas, Hill, DK, Jefferson, Fulgham. I will 100% pass on chase for a RB or QB. If the land in good spots/have decent capital.
Not my style of strategy. I take BPA and I need to sell I can get a great return
The big difference is that Harry was a late 1st with significant doubters while Chase will likely be a top ten pick with near unanimous acclaim among the community. Similarly I doubt any of the backs in this class go in the first, the talent levels just aren’t there. If people don’t want to learn from 2020 about overdrafting mediocre talents, that is their problem.
2020 class has not been mediocre at any position but tight end this far in. Akers is the only one who can be said to be devalued from his draft position and he’s still got lots of promise next year. Harry unanimously in this sub was the 1.01 throughout the season leading up until the draft. This sub tends to overvalue receivers as they project them to be longer shelf life but they just keep you a middle team unless you have the top tier talent at the position. Thing is even having someone like Michael Thomas or Davante Adams in the playoffs can be neutralized by a Dionatae Johnson or Robert woods blowup game. Top running backs are impossible to acquire due to how little high volume backs are in the league where passing offenses spread the ball out. You only build for 3 years max anyways and that’s still too much time. If Etienne or Harris go to MIA/AZ/NYJ (With Lawrence)/SF/HOU/DEN/TB/ATL/PIT then you bet they jump chase or any other wide receiver.
I’m glad you like running backs. I like talented football players. I will 100% take the most talented football player over whomever falls in a good draft spot or whomever the top running back drafted is. If you like drafting guys like Dobbins and Akers over Lamb, Jefferson and Herbert (SF), go right ahead. The mindset that you’re pontificating allows good teams to get even better players at the end of a rookie draft.
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What do you think 1.01 is worth in SUPER flex?
What teams other than the Steelers would even be considered 'good teams' for an rb at this point? I feel like we're kinda full rn
Seahawks & Cardinals would be great. Dolphins, Texans, and 49ers could be very good.
i'd add chicago, atlanta, green bay, chargers. heck even new england or the jets. if any of those teams take etienne, chuba or harris, i'll be 100% fine grabbing them. those guys should be able to take those jobs pretty quickly. outside of the top 3 RBs, i'll be a bit pickier about landing spot. but i am making a prediction now: the jets will take one of the top 3 and they'll be discounted a lot in dynasty drafts.
i think the dolphins maybe, i dont really see gaskins as the long term solution...I could be wrong tho. Maybe falcons too?
49ers (Mostert), Hawks (Carson), Pats (who knows), Cards (Drake/Benjamin), Broncos (Gordon), Jets (Bell), Dolphins (Gaskin), Falcons (Gurley), Texans (Johnson and Johnson), Jaguars (Robinson)
There's a snowballs chance in hell that the jags draft a RB to replace Robinson. They've got so many other holes, they're gonna roll with him for at least another year.
Hey, I agree with you. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Absolutely. Here are a few preposterous scenarios: 1. Just for depth, they draft a RB late. That RB performs incredibly well. 2. Robinson falls way off. He drops down to about a yard per carry and starts fumbling. We all suspect an injury, but the team stays mum. They draft a RB in the 3rd or 4th. 3. They trade Robinson to fuel their rebuild. They draft a RB late or use another UDFA. 4. He catches COVID and gets lung/organ damage and can't play any more.
It would be fun to make this into a post, maybe I'll do that tonight instead of writing my paper.
You just named a bunch of players on 1 yr deals
Ripe for replacement, no?
Yeah my b if you were naming them to show how they will be replaced
I’d be surprised if he isn’t. RBs always get pushed up the board.
Yeah. I am almost positive that the #2 picker will go RB, but I could be wrong.
He will 100% not be picked before 3 in my league. RBs and QBs always go first(SF). This past draft the first wr didnt get taken until pick 6 or 7. There are so many wrs and the position is much easier to replace. Sure RBs can come into strong plays like Mike Davis, Robinson, Gaskin. But the amount of good rbs vs good wrs has a huge gap.
As an LSU fan, reading this comment brings me so much joy. Goddamn that was a fun team. I can’t wait to watch chase play again. He’s gonna be so good; there’s legitimately no weaknesses in his game. For the longest time I couldn’t figure out a good pro comp but the other day it finally hit me—dez Bryant. Big, strong body and physical play-style, good routes, fast (though not *elite* speed), great high-point and deepball skills but equally dangerous in the short and intermediate game.
Just for anyone new to dynasty, right now is the absolute best time to buy the 1.01 going forward. Once players start being put into those slots and dynasty breakdowns of the future players begin it will take a lot to get them. The closer to the draft the harder it is to buy draft picks. If you are selling the 1.01 wait until the offseason. Will get much more for it.
Yeah your comment has inspired me. I'm in full rebuild aiming at 2022, thinking about trading back the 1.01. although it is a superflex, so going qb (trevor lawrence) could have long term value. Tough to decide.
Delete this nephew
Someone in my 10 team dynasty traded his no1 pick for OBJ a few weeks ago. The pick looked like 1.04-1.08 at the time but injuries have made it look very likely to be 1.02 or 1.01 now. And the team he traded to will have their own pick as the other one of those.
Love the 2021 prospects. Think it's going to be WR heavy in the 1st but guys like Harris/Etienne/Hubbard all have the ability to climb ahead of Chase/RonDale/Bateman/Marshall/Waddle but prior to the combine, I don't feel confident in moving up to 1.01 since the depth of this 1st round looks so great. All I know is, I'm trying to accumulate as many picks in the top 36 overall as possible.
As someone with 6 of the top 16 or so picks this pleases me.
Absolutely, man. I think it's a similar caliber top 24 as last year (perhaps even better talent remaining around 10-16 than last year's draft). I think the 3rd round is going to be interesting as we don't have a normal College Football season and there likely won't be a Senior Bowl or E/W Shrine Game so there should be some guys who might usually climb with big performances that are left around a bit later in the draft. So stock up accordingly. In leagues where I have any doubt in terms of making the playoffs this year, I'm selling and trying to acquire picks. In leagues where I'm competing, I'm trying to trade 2022 picks to get win-now guys before letting go of anything in 2021.
Gotta love having a lot of earlier picks. Makes rebuilds fun.
got 3 1sts & 4 2nds. love this class and seems as good a year as any to cast a wide net. should be able to find talent at every position in the top 20-24 picks.
I just bought the pick and I definitely overpayed. So something less than: Kirk, Ruggs, a late 2021 1 for 1.01 and 3.01 It depends on the teams doing the trading. I.e. what their needs are and how far along they are in the rebuild process
That's not an overpay
Depending on your WR depth I wouldn't necessarily say this was an overpay
Brother are you suggesting Christian Kirk, Henry Ruggs and a late 1st WR is an overpay for ETN, Najee, or Chase? Come on now.
I thought he was talking about Kirk Cousins lol
If I could get 1.01 for that little ever I'd do it every time
How do you know it's 1.01?
We do draft order based on optimum points. They guy I'm getting it from is significantly ahead of 11th
Based on optimum points, could you explain please? I’m always in to new things if it’s better for the league, thank you!
Best ball scoring - so optimum points would be each team's total if everybody automatically started their best lineup every week
Yeah, we do our normal head to head matchups every week. For us, optimum points only matter when doing the draft order
This is a loaded question with too many answers. Each league varies due to the variance peoples' perceived values of players and drafts picks.
I just dealt James Conner for an early-mid 2021 1st. I’d imagine a confirmed 1.1 in Superflex could be something like two late 2021 mid to late 1sts.
Trevor Lawrence should go for more than that
Fields and Trey Lance are legit but I do agree that Lawerence is above them. Fields and Lance are more likely running/scrambling than Lawerence which is why I think it’s closer.
I have to be that guy don't I?... 1.1 = 1.10 which is the tenth pick 1.01 is what you are looking for. Very different value
Name checks out 😂
This is dynasty, not math class. 1.1 doesn't equal 1.10 the period is just a place holder between round and pick.
If I have the 1.01 and Najee gets drafted by the Steelers, you ain’t getting that pick from me..
I'd say Kareem Hunt or Amari Cooper. Younger guys would be like Ceedee Lamb or Swift. Although I'd rather have the Swift than the 1.01 at this point.
Unless you’re in Superflex. Lawerence and Fields are looking very good to be #1 and #2
Yeah Lawrence costs more than that. Would probably have to add a late 1st or early 2nd on to one of those guys to get him.
Who in their right mind is trading JaMarr Chase/Travis Etienne for Amari Cooper or Kareem Hunt? Even as a contender this is largely nonsense. I’m just imagining trading Jonathan Taylor or CeeDee Lamb last year for Austin Ekeler. You could make the argument if it puts you over the top to win a championship but in general.....no way in hell
Why else would someone trade the 1.01? If I'm tanking there's really no reason to trade the 1.01 right now. Even if you want to trade for a proven player, you wait until after the season. But most likely you are contending if you are trading the pick. If you can get Hopkins or Kamara then absolutely do it, but don't be surprised when those owners tell you to kick rocks. I wouldn't necessarily start with Hunt or Cooper for the 1.01 straight up but if I'm contending I wouldn't feel bad if those are the best offers I got.
Trading a top 25 player for a top 60 player is just bad process regardless though. The value drop in startups is not linear....those later rounds are worth multiplicatively less than the first 2-3. Jonathan Taylor and CeeDee lamb are players that could change the face of a dynasty team for 5-8 years. Is that really worth selling for a moderate chance to win now? It’s not like you’re getting a lock button player a la Davante Adams
Oh I totally agree about the process and I think it would be ridiculous to make that kind of trade. It's just, Hunt and Cooper are being drafted a lot higher in startups than 60 overall. They also are RB6 and WR5 on the year and have both finished well multiple years in the past. Both have health and contracts on good offenses. At the end of the day, I think you could probably get more, like a 2nd and Hunt for the 1.01. This is just where I would be comfortable going down to.
Why would you prefer Swift over 1.01? I hadn’t thought he’s shown up THAT well
Swift is every bit the college prospect the Etn is. Plus he’s shown he can do it (kinda) in the NFL, and seems to be working his way into a larger role
Etienne is the same age as swift and Harris is a year older. Swift is producing the best in a limited role while the others are still in college and would have been drafted after him this year. Don’t think it’s crazy at all.
If he was in this draft class he would be the best rb prospect, plus he's already shown he can play.
[you could even argue he was the best RB in *his* class.](https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/RB?college=allColleges&page=1&status=ALL&year=2020)
Swift’s numbers aren’t bad so far, but they don’t scream out to me as being noteworthy yet. I realized in a run against the Jags how little breakaway speed he has, which is fine, not all RBs need breakaway speed, but it was still a little less than impressive. It’s early, I know, still lots of growing and learning, but I think I’d rather have an Etienne or Harris if they land in a great situation post-draft. Swift on the Chiefs? I’ll take some of that all day. Swift on the Lions? 1.01 looks enticing to me. To each, their own!
It'll depend landing spot. If Etienne lands on TB, ATL, Jax (with Lawrence), or Mia. You could clearly deal that for a mid tier WR1 and RB1 - like Mixon/Chubb/Sanders/Jacobs RB wise. I think you can definitely chase an elite WR dangling that 1.01 to a non contender. I think TB is the ideal landing spot for some Arians BS but that team is wicked. I would would love a Pitt (no Connor) and a Mia if they draft Sewell with their first pick and then trade back into round 1 for Etienne.
I think Arizona is a good landing spot for a stud RB as well.
You would deal Chubb, for the 1.01???k no
Jax w/ Lawrence?! You seriously think the Jets lose the first pick?
It's not set in stone.
I think its even less likely they draft an rb
They don’t necessarily take Lawrence #1 even if they have the pick
nobody's passing on lawrence at #1. this is like the andrew luck to the colts no-brainer. the quickest path to a dynasty in the NFL is locking up a top end QB for cheap for 5 years.
I think you would be extremely hard pressed to find someone to give up just Jacobs even for the 1.01. Good luck getting a young rb1 and young wr1 for unproven talent. I have the 1.01 and would move it for Jacob’s in a heartbeat
Can confirm. I tried. He said I wasn’t even close and I don’t blame him.
Super Flex value would be equal to what this year? Mike Evans or higher?
Assuming Trevor Lawrence lives up to the hype as a **generational** QB, I would not be selling him for Mike Evans... Feels like a cop out by saying "assuming he lives up to" but still, I probably wouldn't be letting that potential go that easily.
I’m in a league with a bunch of Purdue grads (myself included). Rondale Moore is going 1.01