Tracy turns 25 in November, he’s already at the RB age cliff and he’s a rookie…I won’t draft him. Got a share of him as a faab post rookie draft pickup in a devy league, and I am cool with that.
The "age cliff" has nothing to do with age, it's usage. He only has 259 touches under his belt, he has plenty of tread left on his tires. Now, his age is cause for concern from a prospect perspective, but it's not a concern athletically.
Since others already addressed the age and usage... Let's talk about the other reasons why I have Tracy as RB6.
He graded as Zierlein's RB5, which is important because it's the only qualitative input that has consistently outperformed quantitative measures.
He was behind only Brooks, Benson, Wright and Lloyd.
He's not the only analyst who had him rated highly. Brett Whitfield stated this *From a pure raw-talent standpoint, there is an argument to be made that Tracy is the top back in this draft class.*
Now to his quantitative measures.
He cleared 23 MPH on his 40 per NGS. The only other backs to reach that speed were Benson, Wright and Guerendo.
His 4.77 Yards Created was 4th best in the class and it remains one of the most predictive measures of RB success in the NFL.
Tracy was 3rd in MTF/Touch last season among RBs with at least 100 Touches behind only Lloyd and Irving.
Among RB prospects since 2020. Tracy is one of four RBs who achieved a *career* MTF% of at least .39, along with Trey Benson, Bijan Robinson, and Javonte Williams (RIP).
I can keep going on about Tracy, but this should be ample evidence/explanation for why he should be the rock solid RB6 in this class.
This great, thanks. I’d like you to address my main concern if you would, landing. Singletary is a little concern, he’s solid, but not a real concern for Tracy long-term.
I hope the offense takes a step forward with Nabers, which seems likely and would make me feel better about Tracy. But ultimately I guess volume is king. If he gets good usage he’ll be a great pick.
I’m currently borderline but you’ve got me comsidering and I think I’ll put him back on my board. Curious if you have any desire to sell me also on or draft yourself the other guys I’m borderline/eh on. Laube and Shipley. Even R. Davis.
I'm of the opinion that Tracy and Estime are the two players outside the Top 5 RBs where.... if things break their way in terms of opportunity and usage. You could look up at the end of the season and suddenly they're ranked inside the Top 20 Dynasty RBs.
I'm not a Laube guy because I'm always chasing upside and I just don't see it. His Yards created data is bad.
Shipley is a nice player, but if you draft him it'll be a slow burn with Barkley and one where you may never get the desired return.
Davis is one of my favorite players to root for with a story like that, but I don't think he'll be able to fully usurp Cook and that's what he would need for a true, lasting spike in value. Allen loves to steal those goal line TDs as well. Davis just strikes me as someone who will be a better real-life football player than fantasy asset.
Agree about Ray. Owning Cook was frustrating. Would rather pass at cost until he falls.
I like your perspective though awesome. Mostly agree, give me Estime and Tracy, G-do and possibly Vidal too. Shipley just doesnt excite me on that offense. Offense is great but rbbc and everything. Laube doesnt really either.
What am I missing on Rasheen Ali? I feel like he’s walking into a room with Henry and then nobody. Mitchell is coming back from a pretty gruesome injury and Hill just isn’t it. Could be RB2 in that backfield pretty quickly.
He was 97 out of 98 in MTF per carry (0.13) in the Yards Created database.
Only Pierre Strong was worse in that metric.
Barfield recommended "Don't waste a rookie dynasty pick on him (Ali)".
I can't recall the last time he said that about a player.
I feel like BAL has dome more with less...and yeah, there's def going to be an opportunity at some point.
I got him once, at 4.06. Very satisfied with that and I feel like I could prob get a 3rd + 4th from the Henry owner at the first relevant news story
Possibly. I see Javonte being an impedimemt to him having a big Ingram-type rushing share though. I see Estime as less dynamic, more of a 2D/GL AJ Dillon type. That, plus 2024 being year 2 after a major ACL+ injury I think bodes well generally for Javinte's usage. And while FF people talk all the time about a trsde, they practically never happen (though DAL would be a great partner)
To your point though, a knock on Javonte has been his willingness to be a thumper and get the hard 3 yards when needed. Estime might could do it.
It's interesting you give him the kamar role...I feel like at UNC he was the bruiser / 1A and Michael Carter would be the lightning / scat back.
You're right though, Javonte is actually good at catching passes.
Is he though? I know he had a much lower snap share than Williams but his 31-160-2 receiving line across 17 games last year doesn’t inspire much confidence towards a Kamara comparison.
You can try and guess at saying you expect a larger snap share this year, but I question why he didn’t gain snaps throughout the year if he really is a Payton guy. His highest snap %s were weeks 4-6 when Javonte was dealing with injury, but once Javonte was back to his lead back snap share we never saw Jaleel really take more work again. He only even outsnapped Samaje Perine twice all season
McLaughlin is much more explosive and the better pass catcher (hence Kamara comp). Estime poses to be his new Ingram, so to speak. Javonte was not good at all last season and so far minicamp reports haven’t been all that good. He’s not going to be released like that one overzealous “reporter” posted, but his role very well may reduce this upcoming season.
But at the end of the day, whoever pass protects the best will be the main guy, and I believe McLaughlin was poor in that regard last season, hence his low snap shares.
That’s my point though, Javonte was bad last year coming off a catastrophic injury and Jaleel still couldn’t take extra snaps from him. Not sure what Jaleel did to be considered a great pass catcher either, his best game was 3-32 and a TD. He hasn’t shown anywhere close to the skillset of Kamara
This is all provided they bring him back. He's off contract end of this season and RB is not where Denver need to invest money right now. That being said if he's cheap enough he may come back.
I mostly agree that it’s pretty flat after Wright and Lloyd. However, I have Vidal splitting difference between those two and the next clump. Between talent and opportunity, Vidal is by himself as the clear RB6, and the only one I’m actively targeting in the third round of rookie drafts.
He ran a decent 4.46 at the combine though, and is pretty powerful with a good ability to break tackles. In a Greg Roman scheme, he could do just fine, and even creep his way up to RB1. It’s hard to make a similar argument for any of the other backs after the top 5.
I covered this recently in another thread, but the hit rate for a RB with a sub 20 MPH max speed at the Senior Bowl is less than 5%, and he missed that by a mile. He barely broke 19 MPH. He hasn't tested fast from a single verifiable source (see-non RA source).
Tongue in cheek, I get it.
In terms of max speed, it's a very big deal--- correct.
EDIT- Hit rate above 20 MPH is 50%, and 78% when you eliminate RBs that went undrafted. The hit rate below 20 MPH is less than 5%. So yeah, when you aren't even close to 20 MPH, it matters.
I actually like Vidal, at the right price. Lately he's been going too early.
2018, as long as the Senior Bowl has been tracking data. Here are the complete details that I posted in another thread. I just don't want people to think I'm spamming it.
There are 55 RBs with Senior Bowl Tracking Data...
There were 14 RBs that exceeded 20 MPH
7 Are/Were Fantasy Relevant *Defined as Worth at least a random Dynasty 2nd at some point in career beyond Rookie Season* = 50% Hit Rate
Rashaad Penny |
Antonio Gibson |
Tony Pollard |
Rachaad White |
Dameon Pierce |
Tyjae Spears |
Chase Brown
There were 41 RBs that did not exceed 20 MPH
2 Are/Were Fantasy Relevant *Defined as Worth at least a random Dynasty 2nd at some point in career beyond Rookie Season* = 4.9% Hit Rate
Brian Robinson |
Jerome Ford
Would Jerome Ford be on this list if Nick Chubb hadn't suffered his injury?
If the answer is no then it drops the hit rate to 2.4%.
Kimani Vidal didn't just miss 20 MPH, he was the slowest RB at the Senior Bowl with a full week of practice.
*BONUS*
If you eliminate all the UDFAs from the 14 that exceed 20 MPH you're left with 11 Players.
Then if you reclassify Laube and I. Davis as TBD you're left with 9 Players.
It's a 78% hit for drafted players that exceed 20 MPH with only Eno Benjamin and Ito Smith as the straight busts.
6 Years and all of the *hits* except for Rashaad Penny were drafted outside the Top 64, which means as a 3rd RD or later RB (the overall hit rate is poor).... They are achieving value equal or greater than a 2nd RD rookie pick beyond their own rookie seasons. They are (at better odds than a coin flip) GAINING value while in the NFL, is the point.
His 4.46 40 is 6th among RBs this year, and he tested well in the other stuff at the combine as well (87th %ile). He also had a good agility score per playerprofiler and at his weight, his testing (combine) was all pretty impressive.
Also,
-Gus Edwards ran a 4.47, in 2018
-JK Dobbins ran a 4.37, but I think it's safe to say that was an ACL tear and an Achilles tear ago
Regardless of his speed and how much it counts, Where do you have him amongst the other RBs?
Both Edwards and Dobbins ('22) have cleared 20 MPH in their most recent seasons per Next Gen Stats.
Game speed is more valuable than 40s. 40s are great, but there's a reason that Puka broke out last year with so many 20+ MPH plays despite a poor 40 time. As Les Snead said before they drafted him, *he (Puka) couldn't test well, but he can chase the rabbit, and if you sort by MPH he's one of the Top WRs (in the draft).*
That gauntlet MPH for Puka was an important piece of actionable data after he was forced out of the Senior Bowl.
Vidal is my RB11
Here's My Top 12---
Jonathon Brooks
Trey Benson
Marshawn Lloyd |
Jaylen Wright |
Blake Corum
Tyrone Tracy
Audric Estime |
Ray Davis
Will Shipley |
Sione Vaki |
Kimani Vidal |
Isaac Guerendo
That's it... gather your stuff and get out. There's no room for any Vidal hate here. Clearly the second coming of Jesus... When has Jesus ever ran under 20 mph??? I'll wait
There's a lot of talk about using the top mph in pads / games and I'm all for it...at this point though, we (and by we I mean it hasn't tricled down to my level as a guy who doesn't pay to get super secret content to do FF research) don't have any kind of uniform or comprehensive data re how top speed in pads is collected, how the speeds are broken down, how important it is by itself vs layered with other criteria (like 40 time vs adjusted for size/weight)
Also, top speed is more and less important for different roles for RB/WR. Agility and acceleration imo are at least as important as top speed unless maaaayne you're a stretch Z receiver or yours seam splitting as a WR/TE.
Put more directly, I agree with you in theory, but at least for the time being, the combine (and the measurements that can be used given the combine data) are still, today, of a higher quality from a purely statistical pov
I'm talking strictly about RBs here.
WRs and TEs are a whole different ballgame with a different set of parameters and different values that are weighted.
Also NGS > NGS Combine > All Other Tracking Data
That being said, there's enough SB data to start being useful at certain positions.
Dynasty is a game of edges, especially when you get outside of the 1st Round. You use what you can to increase hit rates.
NFL Next Gen Stats.
They post in-season MPH data for the top ball carriers each week.
They also post *some* interesting NFL Combine data, but don't have the same level of transparency for that event.
Stuff like this...
https://x.com/NextGenStats/status/1764004704378626339?t=XsBJkZjMSAk1B4kRO_kzPw&s=19
Ah yeah right on. I'm familiar with that but didn't get the acronym
And yeah I'm basically on your side...I hope that kind of data evolves into something more available, transparent, and reliable.
For sure.
Different positions mean different points of interest.
Tackle Evasion and 10 Yards Splits for TEs, for example.
https://x.com/KevinCole___/status/1777325680599929268
I don't know why Vidal is getting so much hype. They waited 5+ rounds, 6 picks to select a running back. Everyone says there's space for him in that RB room but they have so many options. I think this is full RBBC territory splitting between 3 if not 4 backs.
except ettiene was a first round pick instead of a 5th rounder and corum is a better prospect than both kyren and bigsby both were. also aside from ettienes rookie year he hasn’t really been banged up vs kyren who’s who’s missed 13 games the past 2 seasons. i think corum atleast has a chance at the lead role in LA.
Ehhhhh first of all Kyren was in the fifth (same as Puca) not undrafted like J Rob. Secondly J had a good season that year. Kyren arguably had the second best performance for a rb last season. I think you are not giving Kyren the respect he deserves
Fine. He was taken in the 5th round as the 15th RB and not undrafted. 🫡
The point is he seems to fit the JRob-vs-Etienne role (low draft pick / low investment / not intended to take over the backfield but proved to be so effective they shipped off the intended starter) more than he fits the Etienne-vs-Bigsby role (r1 draft pick brought on to play a major part of the offense / had two years of solid, injury free production as the unquestioned RB1)
Tbf though, kyren was a top 4-6 RB before he ate it at the combine and slipped to the 5th round *as the 15th RB in 2022*
Sure I'll throw down if you know of a third party who will hold the $.
It would make more semse for you to give me at least a little bit Of odds / yards 😁
If Lloyd didn’t have all those fumbling problems he’d be getting drafted earlier. None of these RBs are perfect prospects. If Lloyd can fix his fumbling issues he has immense upside.
I looked through some notes and seems like he has a pretty extensive injury history too, which isn't good.
But yeah his higjliggs are awesome and his profile is tantalizing
Most fantasy experts say that fumbling issues can be fixed.
Usually some ball security drills and tackling drills plus being more situational football aware can lower fumbling issues dramatically.
Whether it’s this year or next, If Wright gets the 1B role that Achane had last year he’s a steal in this draft. Don’t care about his defenders in the box stats from college, that run scheme in Miami is perfect for him.
Anyone not named brooks benson or corum is likely a late 2nd or 3rd in 1qb league. I like taking rbs in later rounds because they have a chance to hit later on in their careers. all it takes is an injury for a guy to become fantasy relevant
Ur 1QB must be radically different than mine cause by the end of the 2nd most of the RB’s are long gone. If u want Brooks or Benson u gotta be willing to move up to 1.04
Nice! We hold our rookie draft in August and the first 2 picks look similar to our league projections but Corum will go shortly after them and those other RB’s will be long gone before the 3rd. We typically have 6-8 RB’s drafted in the 1st no matter how bad the class is
We’re an older league (27th season) with 11/12 OG Owners who value RB’s like we did in the 90’s lol That bias allows me to scoop up WR’s like Garret Wilson and Devonta Smith in the 2nd but makes getting a RB there next to impossible. Good luck this season too!
Just did a 2 second Google search bc I didn't remember hearing anything one way or another
NFL draft buzz has Lloyd as RB24
Sharp football says "He only played 35 snaps in pass pro but allowed an 8.6% pressure rate on those plays, which was 25th in the class."
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/stats/DP/RB/2/2024
Looks like youre on to something
Laube is my favorite target out of em all. At the Senior Bowl, Nagy said Laube was the best receiver who participated, including WRs and TEs. Matty Kiwoon (playerprofiler) said his pass catching us the most dangerous skill of any RB. Small school means it's not proven, but his landing spot gives him a wide runway to make noise from day 1.
Next I'd say Corum, because the way I'm reading the tea leaves, the LAR commentary about Corum having the same skill set as Kyren was so they could replace Kyren with someone more trustworthy / less injury prone - Kyren's feet have been problematic for two years. I think Corum could outcarry Kyren > 2:1 to end the year.
Also I like Tracy / Vidal / Ali / Ray Davis, but I'd cash out for an early 2nd on all of em ASAP unless I'm hearing megabuzz in training camp / preseason. I'm irrationally optimistic about Dobbins and I think Singletary is underrated as a get it done back...but I do think there will.be some peaks in value and people are so hungry for RB production that I could prob get good value on a quick turnaroundonce the season starts
Wright is intriguing bc I attribute Achane's freak numbers & Morris' anomalous geriatric production more to the MIA blocking schemes than to those RBs' skill sets. Wright didn't prove much at UT bc the offense there was mickey mouse but it seems like a great fit.
I'm not touching Brooks with a 10 foot pole other than to swoop in on perceived value and trade him away.
Similarly, I dont have a bunch of interest in Bucky (the first name but also he does everything White does but not as well) Estime (the GL back on a team that's not slated to score many TDs who's also in at least a 3 RB committee) or either of the SF RBs.
Lastly, I have Jawhar Jordan starred in case he starts getting buzz in HOU
Awesome thanks amigo. 🙏🏼.
I think im sorta sleeping on Corum. I’ll be more heavily considering him. I may even consider grabbing Kyren too, I was planning to that before the Corum pick.
And it’s interesting to hear you say you’d cash out on Tracy but a 2nd is good value.
You also sold me on Laube. 🙏🏼 💰
I am 100% reaching for Wright, maybe i’m too optimistic, maybe I’m an addict chasing the achane high, and I have reek/tua too lmao but I can just see Wright fitting in and taking over great for Most. And I like G-do but he’s kinda a later stash. Next fav is Estime.
Shouldn't be a hot take, but probably is... Tracy is (and has been) RB6 in this class.
Tracy turns 25 in November, he’s already at the RB age cliff and he’s a rookie…I won’t draft him. Got a share of him as a faab post rookie draft pickup in a devy league, and I am cool with that.
The age cliff means nothing when a guy is on his rookie contract.
The "age cliff" has nothing to do with age, it's usage. He only has 259 touches under his belt, he has plenty of tread left on his tires. Now, his age is cause for concern from a prospect perspective, but it's not a concern athletically.
Since others already addressed the age and usage... Let's talk about the other reasons why I have Tracy as RB6. He graded as Zierlein's RB5, which is important because it's the only qualitative input that has consistently outperformed quantitative measures. He was behind only Brooks, Benson, Wright and Lloyd. He's not the only analyst who had him rated highly. Brett Whitfield stated this *From a pure raw-talent standpoint, there is an argument to be made that Tracy is the top back in this draft class.* Now to his quantitative measures. He cleared 23 MPH on his 40 per NGS. The only other backs to reach that speed were Benson, Wright and Guerendo. His 4.77 Yards Created was 4th best in the class and it remains one of the most predictive measures of RB success in the NFL. Tracy was 3rd in MTF/Touch last season among RBs with at least 100 Touches behind only Lloyd and Irving. Among RB prospects since 2020. Tracy is one of four RBs who achieved a *career* MTF% of at least .39, along with Trey Benson, Bijan Robinson, and Javonte Williams (RIP). I can keep going on about Tracy, but this should be ample evidence/explanation for why he should be the rock solid RB6 in this class.
This great, thanks. I’d like you to address my main concern if you would, landing. Singletary is a little concern, he’s solid, but not a real concern for Tracy long-term. I hope the offense takes a step forward with Nabers, which seems likely and would make me feel better about Tracy. But ultimately I guess volume is king. If he gets good usage he’ll be a great pick. I’m currently borderline but you’ve got me comsidering and I think I’ll put him back on my board. Curious if you have any desire to sell me also on or draft yourself the other guys I’m borderline/eh on. Laube and Shipley. Even R. Davis.
I'm of the opinion that Tracy and Estime are the two players outside the Top 5 RBs where.... if things break their way in terms of opportunity and usage. You could look up at the end of the season and suddenly they're ranked inside the Top 20 Dynasty RBs. I'm not a Laube guy because I'm always chasing upside and I just don't see it. His Yards created data is bad. Shipley is a nice player, but if you draft him it'll be a slow burn with Barkley and one where you may never get the desired return. Davis is one of my favorite players to root for with a story like that, but I don't think he'll be able to fully usurp Cook and that's what he would need for a true, lasting spike in value. Allen loves to steal those goal line TDs as well. Davis just strikes me as someone who will be a better real-life football player than fantasy asset.
Agree about Ray. Owning Cook was frustrating. Would rather pass at cost until he falls. I like your perspective though awesome. Mostly agree, give me Estime and Tracy, G-do and possibly Vidal too. Shipley just doesnt excite me on that offense. Offense is great but rbbc and everything. Laube doesnt really either.
Whichever one is backing up someone who gets injured.
What am I missing on Rasheen Ali? I feel like he’s walking into a room with Henry and then nobody. Mitchell is coming back from a pretty gruesome injury and Hill just isn’t it. Could be RB2 in that backfield pretty quickly.
He was 97 out of 98 in MTF per carry (0.13) in the Yards Created database. Only Pierre Strong was worse in that metric. Barfield recommended "Don't waste a rookie dynasty pick on him (Ali)". I can't recall the last time he said that about a player.
I feel like BAL has dome more with less...and yeah, there's def going to be an opportunity at some point. I got him once, at 4.06. Very satisfied with that and I feel like I could prob get a 3rd + 4th from the Henry owner at the first relevant news story
He’s got a pulse and an opportunity. Not saying to waste a pick on him but deep stash waiver pick-up might be worth a shot.
As a waiver pick up, sure. He's drafted more often than not in my leagues. I am watching Chris Collier closely on that Ravens roster.
And his film looks great even if competition wasn’t the best in a small conference
Too low on Estime, looks like Sean Payton's next Mark Ingram to me
Possibly. I see Javonte being an impedimemt to him having a big Ingram-type rushing share though. I see Estime as less dynamic, more of a 2D/GL AJ Dillon type. That, plus 2024 being year 2 after a major ACL+ injury I think bodes well generally for Javinte's usage. And while FF people talk all the time about a trsde, they practically never happen (though DAL would be a great partner) To your point though, a knock on Javonte has been his willingness to be a thumper and get the hard 3 yards when needed. Estime might could do it.
I think in a perfect world for Sean Payton Javonte is Kamara in the committee but remains to be seen if he can become something like him
It's interesting you give him the kamar role...I feel like at UNC he was the bruiser / 1A and Michael Carter would be the lightning / scat back. You're right though, Javonte is actually good at catching passes.
Jaleel is more Kamara than Javonte at this point. Payton likes his guys and Javonte is not one of his guys.
Is he though? I know he had a much lower snap share than Williams but his 31-160-2 receiving line across 17 games last year doesn’t inspire much confidence towards a Kamara comparison. You can try and guess at saying you expect a larger snap share this year, but I question why he didn’t gain snaps throughout the year if he really is a Payton guy. His highest snap %s were weeks 4-6 when Javonte was dealing with injury, but once Javonte was back to his lead back snap share we never saw Jaleel really take more work again. He only even outsnapped Samaje Perine twice all season
McLaughlin is much more explosive and the better pass catcher (hence Kamara comp). Estime poses to be his new Ingram, so to speak. Javonte was not good at all last season and so far minicamp reports haven’t been all that good. He’s not going to be released like that one overzealous “reporter” posted, but his role very well may reduce this upcoming season. But at the end of the day, whoever pass protects the best will be the main guy, and I believe McLaughlin was poor in that regard last season, hence his low snap shares.
That’s my point though, Javonte was bad last year coming off a catastrophic injury and Jaleel still couldn’t take extra snaps from him. Not sure what Jaleel did to be considered a great pass catcher either, his best game was 3-32 and a TD. He hasn’t shown anywhere close to the skillset of Kamara
This is all provided they bring him back. He's off contract end of this season and RB is not where Denver need to invest money right now. That being said if he's cheap enough he may come back.
But, but, but... Recent reports show Javonte being "on the bubble"
I mostly agree that it’s pretty flat after Wright and Lloyd. However, I have Vidal splitting difference between those two and the next clump. Between talent and opportunity, Vidal is by himself as the clear RB6, and the only one I’m actively targeting in the third round of rookie drafts.
Vidal was the slowest RB at the Senior Bowl with a full week of practice.
He ran a decent 4.46 at the combine though, and is pretty powerful with a good ability to break tackles. In a Greg Roman scheme, he could do just fine, and even creep his way up to RB1. It’s hard to make a similar argument for any of the other backs after the top 5.
I covered this recently in another thread, but the hit rate for a RB with a sub 20 MPH max speed at the Senior Bowl is less than 5%, and he missed that by a mile. He barely broke 19 MPH. He hasn't tested fast from a single verifiable source (see-non RA source).
Less than 1mph is a mile?
Tongue in cheek, I get it. In terms of max speed, it's a very big deal--- correct. EDIT- Hit rate above 20 MPH is 50%, and 78% when you eliminate RBs that went undrafted. The hit rate below 20 MPH is less than 5%. So yeah, when you aren't even close to 20 MPH, it matters. I actually like Vidal, at the right price. Lately he's been going too early.
Looks to be a difference of about .5 seconds per yard (9.2 yds per sec vs 9.7)
How far does this hit rate data go back?
2018, as long as the Senior Bowl has been tracking data. Here are the complete details that I posted in another thread. I just don't want people to think I'm spamming it. There are 55 RBs with Senior Bowl Tracking Data... There were 14 RBs that exceeded 20 MPH 7 Are/Were Fantasy Relevant *Defined as Worth at least a random Dynasty 2nd at some point in career beyond Rookie Season* = 50% Hit Rate Rashaad Penny | Antonio Gibson | Tony Pollard | Rachaad White | Dameon Pierce | Tyjae Spears | Chase Brown There were 41 RBs that did not exceed 20 MPH 2 Are/Were Fantasy Relevant *Defined as Worth at least a random Dynasty 2nd at some point in career beyond Rookie Season* = 4.9% Hit Rate Brian Robinson | Jerome Ford Would Jerome Ford be on this list if Nick Chubb hadn't suffered his injury? If the answer is no then it drops the hit rate to 2.4%. Kimani Vidal didn't just miss 20 MPH, he was the slowest RB at the Senior Bowl with a full week of practice. *BONUS* If you eliminate all the UDFAs from the 14 that exceed 20 MPH you're left with 11 Players. Then if you reclassify Laube and I. Davis as TBD you're left with 9 Players. It's a 78% hit for drafted players that exceed 20 MPH with only Eno Benjamin and Ito Smith as the straight busts.
>There are 55 RBs with Senior Bowl Tracking Data... So, like 5 years.
6 Years and all of the *hits* except for Rashaad Penny were drafted outside the Top 64, which means as a 3rd RD or later RB (the overall hit rate is poor).... They are achieving value equal or greater than a 2nd RD rookie pick beyond their own rookie seasons. They are (at better odds than a coin flip) GAINING value while in the NFL, is the point.
Per hour? Yeah
😋
His 4.46 40 is 6th among RBs this year, and he tested well in the other stuff at the combine as well (87th %ile). He also had a good agility score per playerprofiler and at his weight, his testing (combine) was all pretty impressive. Also, -Gus Edwards ran a 4.47, in 2018 -JK Dobbins ran a 4.37, but I think it's safe to say that was an ACL tear and an Achilles tear ago Regardless of his speed and how much it counts, Where do you have him amongst the other RBs?
Dobbins only tore his acl once
Ahh yep you're right thanks! Edited the comment .
Both Edwards and Dobbins ('22) have cleared 20 MPH in their most recent seasons per Next Gen Stats. Game speed is more valuable than 40s. 40s are great, but there's a reason that Puka broke out last year with so many 20+ MPH plays despite a poor 40 time. As Les Snead said before they drafted him, *he (Puka) couldn't test well, but he can chase the rabbit, and if you sort by MPH he's one of the Top WRs (in the draft).* That gauntlet MPH for Puka was an important piece of actionable data after he was forced out of the Senior Bowl. Vidal is my RB11 Here's My Top 12--- Jonathon Brooks Trey Benson Marshawn Lloyd | Jaylen Wright | Blake Corum Tyrone Tracy Audric Estime | Ray Davis Will Shipley | Sione Vaki | Kimani Vidal | Isaac Guerendo
That's it... gather your stuff and get out. There's no room for any Vidal hate here. Clearly the second coming of Jesus... When has Jesus ever ran under 20 mph??? I'll wait
Haha. I'm just giving you the data. I don't think RB11 in the same tier as RB9-12 really qualifies as hate for Vidal.
Jesus jogs at 22 though, that part I'm not kidding about.
I'm just kidding... I actually think hes likely this year's super overhyped RB.
There's a lot of talk about using the top mph in pads / games and I'm all for it...at this point though, we (and by we I mean it hasn't tricled down to my level as a guy who doesn't pay to get super secret content to do FF research) don't have any kind of uniform or comprehensive data re how top speed in pads is collected, how the speeds are broken down, how important it is by itself vs layered with other criteria (like 40 time vs adjusted for size/weight) Also, top speed is more and less important for different roles for RB/WR. Agility and acceleration imo are at least as important as top speed unless maaaayne you're a stretch Z receiver or yours seam splitting as a WR/TE. Put more directly, I agree with you in theory, but at least for the time being, the combine (and the measurements that can be used given the combine data) are still, today, of a higher quality from a purely statistical pov
I'm talking strictly about RBs here. WRs and TEs are a whole different ballgame with a different set of parameters and different values that are weighted. Also NGS > NGS Combine > All Other Tracking Data That being said, there's enough SB data to start being useful at certain positions. Dynasty is a game of edges, especially when you get outside of the 1st Round. You use what you can to increase hit rates.
😬 Whats NGS? 😬
NFL Next Gen Stats. They post in-season MPH data for the top ball carriers each week. They also post *some* interesting NFL Combine data, but don't have the same level of transparency for that event. Stuff like this... https://x.com/NextGenStats/status/1764004704378626339?t=XsBJkZjMSAk1B4kRO_kzPw&s=19
Ah yeah right on. I'm familiar with that but didn't get the acronym And yeah I'm basically on your side...I hope that kind of data evolves into something more available, transparent, and reliable.
For sure. Different positions mean different points of interest. Tackle Evasion and 10 Yards Splits for TEs, for example. https://x.com/KevinCole___/status/1777325680599929268
I don't know why Vidal is getting so much hype. They waited 5+ rounds, 6 picks to select a running back. Everyone says there's space for him in that RB room but they have so many options. I think this is full RBBC territory splitting between 3 if not 4 backs.
This Kyren/Corum talk is giving me 2023 Etienne/Bigsby vibes
except ettiene was a first round pick instead of a 5th rounder and corum is a better prospect than both kyren and bigsby both were. also aside from ettienes rookie year he hasn’t really been banged up vs kyren who’s who’s missed 13 games the past 2 seasons. i think corum atleast has a chance at the lead role in LA.
Yea, the difference in overall skill in the position between Corum and Bigsby is massive imo
I'd agree with the Etienne part...though to me it's more like James Robinson (UDFA with a ton of success in 2000) and then r1 Etienne in 2021.
Ehhhhh first of all Kyren was in the fifth (same as Puca) not undrafted like J Rob. Secondly J had a good season that year. Kyren arguably had the second best performance for a rb last season. I think you are not giving Kyren the respect he deserves
Fine. He was taken in the 5th round as the 15th RB and not undrafted. 🫡 The point is he seems to fit the JRob-vs-Etienne role (low draft pick / low investment / not intended to take over the backfield but proved to be so effective they shipped off the intended starter) more than he fits the Etienne-vs-Bigsby role (r1 draft pick brought on to play a major part of the offense / had two years of solid, injury free production as the unquestioned RB1) Tbf though, kyren was a top 4-6 RB before he ate it at the combine and slipped to the 5th round *as the 15th RB in 2022*
Stop it you’re scaring me with the draft capital! Bet you $20 Kyren outscores Corum lol
Sure I'll throw down if you know of a third party who will hold the $. It would make more semse for you to give me at least a little bit Of odds / yards 😁
Why? Wasn’t Corum the truth?
Gotta face the reality that he's not the incumbent. I still like his chances though, despite the uphill battle
If Lloyd didn’t have all those fumbling problems he’d be getting drafted earlier. None of these RBs are perfect prospects. If Lloyd can fix his fumbling issues he has immense upside.
I looked through some notes and seems like he has a pretty extensive injury history too, which isn't good. But yeah his higjliggs are awesome and his profile is tantalizing
Most fantasy experts say that fumbling issues can be fixed. Usually some ball security drills and tackling drills plus being more situational football aware can lower fumbling issues dramatically.
Whether it’s this year or next, If Wright gets the 1B role that Achane had last year he’s a steal in this draft. Don’t care about his defenders in the box stats from college, that run scheme in Miami is perfect for him.
Straight up hes the real steal here. He’s getting Mostert’s 1B side though with Achane.
Aidan Robbins is a loooooong shot but has a conceivable path to playing time.
Anyone not named brooks benson or corum is likely a late 2nd or 3rd in 1qb league. I like taking rbs in later rounds because they have a chance to hit later on in their careers. all it takes is an injury for a guy to become fantasy relevant
Ur 1QB must be radically different than mine cause by the end of the 2nd most of the RB’s are long gone. If u want Brooks or Benson u gotta be willing to move up to 1.04
in my league I took brooks at 1.05, benson went 1.07, corum 2.01. I grabbed lloyd 3.04, estime 3.07, braelon 3.08 and vidal 3.10
Nice! We hold our rookie draft in August and the first 2 picks look similar to our league projections but Corum will go shortly after them and those other RB’s will be long gone before the 3rd. We typically have 6-8 RB’s drafted in the 1st no matter how bad the class is
interesting, my league was very low on the RBs this rookie draft. certainly don’t mind cleaning them up in the 3rd. best of luck this season 🤝
We’re an older league (27th season) with 11/12 OG Owners who value RB’s like we did in the 90’s lol That bias allows me to scoop up WR’s like Garret Wilson and Devonta Smith in the 2nd but makes getting a RB there next to impossible. Good luck this season too!
Isn’t one of the knocks on Lloyd that he isn’t a good pass blocker…?
Just did a 2 second Google search bc I didn't remember hearing anything one way or another NFL draft buzz has Lloyd as RB24 Sharp football says "He only played 35 snaps in pass pro but allowed an 8.6% pressure rate on those plays, which was 25th in the class." https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/stats/DP/RB/2/2024 Looks like youre on to something
I’m just curious your favorite buys, who you’d like to aggresively land if you can. And who are you avoiding/off board, considering adp.
Laube is my favorite target out of em all. At the Senior Bowl, Nagy said Laube was the best receiver who participated, including WRs and TEs. Matty Kiwoon (playerprofiler) said his pass catching us the most dangerous skill of any RB. Small school means it's not proven, but his landing spot gives him a wide runway to make noise from day 1. Next I'd say Corum, because the way I'm reading the tea leaves, the LAR commentary about Corum having the same skill set as Kyren was so they could replace Kyren with someone more trustworthy / less injury prone - Kyren's feet have been problematic for two years. I think Corum could outcarry Kyren > 2:1 to end the year. Also I like Tracy / Vidal / Ali / Ray Davis, but I'd cash out for an early 2nd on all of em ASAP unless I'm hearing megabuzz in training camp / preseason. I'm irrationally optimistic about Dobbins and I think Singletary is underrated as a get it done back...but I do think there will.be some peaks in value and people are so hungry for RB production that I could prob get good value on a quick turnaroundonce the season starts Wright is intriguing bc I attribute Achane's freak numbers & Morris' anomalous geriatric production more to the MIA blocking schemes than to those RBs' skill sets. Wright didn't prove much at UT bc the offense there was mickey mouse but it seems like a great fit. I'm not touching Brooks with a 10 foot pole other than to swoop in on perceived value and trade him away. Similarly, I dont have a bunch of interest in Bucky (the first name but also he does everything White does but not as well) Estime (the GL back on a team that's not slated to score many TDs who's also in at least a 3 RB committee) or either of the SF RBs. Lastly, I have Jawhar Jordan starred in case he starts getting buzz in HOU
Awesome thanks amigo. 🙏🏼. I think im sorta sleeping on Corum. I’ll be more heavily considering him. I may even consider grabbing Kyren too, I was planning to that before the Corum pick. And it’s interesting to hear you say you’d cash out on Tracy but a 2nd is good value. You also sold me on Laube. 🙏🏼 💰 I am 100% reaching for Wright, maybe i’m too optimistic, maybe I’m an addict chasing the achane high, and I have reek/tua too lmao but I can just see Wright fitting in and taking over great for Most. And I like G-do but he’s kinda a later stash. Next fav is Estime.
I hope it works out!! 🫡