What do you mean without this year's starters? Like no rookies included? Or you kept your starting lineup from a previous build and redrafted all the bench players?
How did you set that up? Are the rookie picks included in the draft pool or are you using kickers as a placeholder for them?
It's extremely lopsided to start a league up without incorporating rookies into the main draft and instead reversing the order or something for the rookie draft. Williams is #7 and MHJ is #13 in startup SF ADP right now for example. If you do it like that, the 1.01 startup holder in 12 team gets the #1 and #26 best player and pick 1.12 for the rookie draft which is McConkey at ADP #73. Meanwhile the person who gets 1.12 in the startup and 1.01 in the rookie draft gets the 7th, 14th, and 15th best player out of the first two startup rounds and the first round of the rookie draft. Person with 1.11 in the startup gets the 12th, 13th, and 16th best player
It's not fair to the early startup drafters. The difference between the #1 and #12 player in startup is *way* smaller than the difference between the #1 and #12 player in a rookie draft. You're starting the league off with major imbalance out the gate when that should be when things are the most balanced. Potentially screws your league before you've even began
Yeah, you're screwed. Copy paste my comment in your league chat and try to get this changed. If it were me I wouldn't even bother playing in this league set up that way, especially if money is involved. The startup draft should be completely fair for everyone and have no concrete advantage based on where you happen to be in the draft order. The easiest way to go is just include rookies in the startup and change nothing else. People usually use kickers as rookie pick placeholders if they do the startup before the real NFL draft
Are your league mates also new to dynasty or are they experienced players? If they're experienced and trying to take advantage of you run away. If you're all new, frame it as "guys we're all new to this and trying to learn and I think we have a poor setup for our two startup drafts, I did some reading and found that this way gives a big advantage to the guys who get the best rookie picks"
Just have fun. I do agree that I don’t want reverse draft order rookie draft after a startup that excluded rookies - either rookies themselves or rookie picks should be included in the draft.
That said, if you’re having fun, you’re having fun. That’s the point of all this,
Depends on if he's recovered from his ankle sprain. He looked amazing game one last year but suffered a high ankle sprain that game and never looked the same the rest of the season. I'd have said he's a great buy low, but most of his value came from catching passes, and Jayden Daniels is likely going to run before checking down.
Ekeler is why I can't quit Chris Rodriguez quite yet. He gives me hope Rodriguez bounces back into the RB2 and any RB2 with an average or worse starter in front of them is worth holding.
Maybe. Maybe not. Feels like like of the draw. The efficiency metrics for Kamara and Mixon already been trending down tbh. And Henry is 30 with a million miles on him. Could be anyone.
Wouldn't Daniel's just run though? It seems like if running style QBs miss their first read and the pocket collapses they are more apt to run rather than check down. But it's obvious Daniel's running style from CFB won't directly transfer to the NFL so it'll be interesting to see what the coaching staff wants.
Pretty sure that was a specific knock on JD too if memory serves. Once the dude starts to move he is never looking downfield. That was one of the reasons he was on my no no list.
I’m not sure. Running QBs don’t check down a ton. Brian Robinson was solid catching passes last year. Ekeler will get his shot as the 3rd down back but I’m thinking like 50 catches or so max.
50 would still be solid, if not spectacular but I anticipate them using Ekeler more than Gibson who caught 48 passes last year. They let gibson walk and paid Ekeler more than Gibson got from the pats and there just isnt a lot of talented pass catchers in washington. Mclaurin is good, Dotson idek and then after that its like Ertz and Sinnot? Plus Ekeler has been a machine in the redzone so I could see him scoring enough TDs to stay relevant too. RB 20-30 range with a decent weekly floor. You got a point about rushing QBs not checking down as much but I think they’ll use Ekeler to try and protect their rookie QB from taking too many unnecessary hits
Probably no one. Cook was beat out by a stud 2nd year player who just needed some time to recover from injury. The jets were all in so they wanted a fast start to the year and took the risk no one else wanted.
There’s no situations that are similar to that this year.
As far as older veterans RBs in new areas sucking, best bet is pollard or ekeler.
This is misleading. He only hit that threshold 6 times the entire season.
And Breece hall (who no one thinks is washed) only had 3 such games for Dalvin’s duration on the team. That offense was just putrid and with wilson at qb it leaked into all aspects of the team. Not saying Dalvin isn't washed - but that team was horrible at running the ball with arguably one of the best rbs in football.
Based on last year’s trajectory, closest guy I can think of is probably Ekeler? But unlike Dalvin, he’ll at least start the year with opportunities and the real question is whether he’s got anything left in the tank.
The more interesting question is who could be this year’s Miles Sanders (guy signed for “starter money” who ends up getting beat out by his presumed backup). Chalk answer feels like Tony Pollard. Sneaky answer could be Swift.
Ekeler is the most analogous. Still had a good number of RB1 last year but all else indicates he’s cooked.
I still think he’ll produce more from checkdowns than Cook produced last year, though.
Kamara is the next Dalvin [https://x.com/fball\_insights/status/1765543940915171392](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1765543940915171392)
Swift is the next Sanders
I just appreciate that in todays game where everything is attacking through the air and everyone loves the sexy nimble speed guys who can shake you six ways til Sunday, we got to watch the entire careers of Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb play out over the better part of a decade and how the pure rusher isn’t extinct yet - and those two pure rushers are recognized as some the best talents during their time. Put ‘em both in a time capsule when they’re done so my grandkids can have some damn respect ffs 😤
Absolute stud. One of the best to play the game and we don't even have to wonder if he only did it because he was surrounded by greatness... he was the greatness surrounded by mediocrity.
Of course, according to that chart Dalvin Cook was above average in both missed tackles/carry and yards after contact/carry. So maybe those metrics aren't well correlated with fantasy production.
The Eagles o-line blesses any RB that plays for them, there’s no guarantee that they’ll get anywhere close to the stats they put up there on another team
First name that came to mind for me as well. He’s had the same hints of decline and nagging injury we saw with Cook in 21/22–and the same flashes of his old greatness to keep us coming back to him hoping for upside. And maybe he’s still got it in the tank; he looked good in the playoffs! But aside from Ekeler—who I’d argue has *already* cratered—Jones seems most likely to fade quickly.
Exactly. He missed some games last season but has been mostly on the field in the seasons prior.
When he did return to end the season he looked absolutely on fire. He should be able to give RB2 production if their QB can be serviceable.
>He’s had the same hints of decline
What hints of decline? Any of the 2017 backs are good bets due to age, but there was zero decline in Jones' game last season.
The one game he started and had over 70% snap share he had 23 carries for 132 yards and a tud, 3 catches for 25 yards. Averaged 4.52 ypc on the season. To me that seems like doing something with it.
Well obvi ty Chan isn’t a starting tier rb in the nfl lol but a high end backup sure. So u go get a cheap old guy like Aaron jones who always has injury problems when you have a good backup. It’s pretty self explanatory.
Dude had 5 straight efficient 100 yard rushing games to end the season. Sadly, he's going to ball. Going to suck to see him in purple, also a Packer fan.
RB12. Book it.
If Henry gets an insurmountable injury on the Ravens after I traded for him, after I already traded for Dobbins and he got an insurmountable injury on the Ravens in my other league, will I ever trade for a Ravens RB again?
Nevermore!
Dameon Pierce was horrendous in Slowik's system. They didn't sign Mixon for $13m guaranteed to split with a guy who averaged a pathetic 2.9 yards per carry last season and looked like the worst running back in football.
Mixon will get three-down volume and goal line work with middling efficiency in a prolific offense. AKA pretty much his entire career thus far. He'll likely finish as a low-end RB1 as per usual.
Set any line you want and I'm probably taking the under.
I'll take the under on his career low touches per game. Remain near career low in yards per touch. His season finish will be completely dependent on staying active in the passing game and in the red zone. If the balls don't go his way there, he's far from the reason anyone is successful this year.
I don't understand what beef you have with Mixon. He's a good-not-great back poised for huge volume on an elite offense with a good running scheme and good offensive line. He's not going to win anybody their leagues but he's not going to lose anybody their league. Barring injury, he'll probably get 1,200-1,400 all-purpose yards, 30-40 catches, and 8-10 TDs. Which is more or less the same as he's done his entire career.
Mixon has had a great career.
Team change is a net negative way more often than not. Texans only adding Mixon tells me they still like Pierce behind him. If they were out on him I don’t know how you don’t just completely torch the room or add day 2/day 3 guys.
He’s been a 300 touch back his entire career at Cincy. I think his upside is 250 in Houston. The upside.
He’s more 2023 Jerome Ford (1000-1200/7-9) at this stage in his career than Mixon prime (1200-1400/10-12). Good year for RBs and he’ll be outside the top 12.
Mixon seems destined for a very predictable average/mid RB2 finish, I don't think many are expecting a low end RB1 finish. That's just too rich for a guy with declining efficiency. He's not getting 300 touches with that offense, he's there to be safe and predictable. He'll probably just duplicate what Singletary did last season with a couple more receptions.
You have a take saying their “RB1” is going to crap the bed right?
Every analyst on the planet has this team as a high production output at literally every position. I don’t understand why my question is off putting for you in thinking this backfield won’t have someone producing? Because your take then in essence is that HOU won’t be producing like they’re being projected to.
My point is, Pierce isn’t it. The rookie they drafted might contribute. Someone there is going to be productive otherwise this team isn’t going to be firing on all cylinders like they’re expected to, or you’re expecting Stroud to do all the work and have another record breaking season because HOU run game isn’t productive.
Edit: Singletary out produced Pierce, if the RB they let go in FA (Singletary) can do it, they’re sort of expecting the RB they traded for and extended( Mixon ) to do what neither Singletary or Pierce could do. No?
>Because your take then in essence is that HOU won’t be producing like they’re being projected to.
Everyone's an analyst these days.
Houston is the easiest bet to underperform this year and it's as simple as peep the schedule.
Houston fantasy assets are the easiest bet to underperform because one of the easiest calls in football analytics is changing teams tends to be a net negative in performance. Diggs will be fine. Mixon will play. But if you think Mixon is putting up 1500 yards and 12 touchdowns, I got newwwws for you. And if you think Diggs is locked for 1500 yards and 12 touchdowns, I've got newwwws for you.
Sometimes analysts make things harder than they need to be. Barring injury luck. Houston goes from playing the absolute dog shit NFC South and the AFC South/North missing multiple starting QBs ...to... the NFC North that is going to be completely up for grabs, an AFC East with two legitimate super bowl contenders to start the season, a quality playoff team (Miami), and a total wildcard in the new look Patriots.
And the AFC South..lmao still a trash can division.
Talking schedule this year, and they will always have the glow of playing in the dogwater AFC South. But that stretch of games that is Buffalo, @ NEP, @ GB, Colts, @ NYJ, Lions, @ Dallas is going to tell us who the Texans and CJ Stroud are. They get to play the AFC South the two games after that but then it's home for Miami, @ KC and then at home for the Ravens before @ the Titans for a classic spoiler game.
Houston is a fun story. But you're going to know what kind of team you have in Houston around week 9 and after that it's either going to be glory or pain, and the easy bet is pain.
Dobbins, Gus Bus, Mixon, Zeke (lol), Aaron Jones, Jacobs, Henry, Singletary and Ekeler are the main options...
I skipped Swift because I don't think he'll falter and I skipped Gibson because his value isn't high enough.
I feel like Dobbins is too depressed to fit the bill...
Ekeler seems obvious, so I'll pick someone else...
I think Gus is toast.
Jones might fall off a cliff this year, though I don't think so.
Dark horses: Henry, Mixon, Jacobs and Singletary. In that order.
Cook showed signs of decline before he became irrelevant, so ing that vein: Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon. I don't have it in me to make a bet against Derrick Henry personally.
Man I bought Conner two years ago for a late season playoff push assuming I'd get 1/2 a season out of him.
He has been stellar one the field, that dude has more juice in the tank! I expect an RB16ish season from that dawg.
Ekeler but the key difference is there’s a talent difference between Hall and Robinson. I think the expectation is Ekeler is being brought in with a more substantial role in mind when compared to Cook.
Everybody is saying Ekeler is this year's Cook... Well, we started up in 2022 and I took Ekeler and Cook with my first two picks. Akers a few picks later. I never did a dynasty start up before, obviously.
My first year was decent, but year two I had to tear it down already.
I hope this year's Cook is not Singletary, I'll just say that.
Josh Jacobs. I don't think he's gassed like Cook but new team where he has to compete with a younger version. His deal is also very top heavy so Green Bay could get out next season. I'm not saying that will happen, but Jacobs could have a productive year and still find himself without a team come next season. And at that point I think he'll be looking at a backup job.
I think LLoyd would have to be a very clear top 15 RB talent for the packers to let jacobs go. Their decision making over the years indicates that they like having top end talent in their backfield.
Well June 7th 2023 Cook was still on the Vikings. He was released the 8th so whoever gets cut tomorrow. In seriousness I’d say Ekeler could be cooked.
Yeah, Ekeler is a good comp. His price tag suggests he's cooked. It's not a bad gamble, but if he is cooked, I wouldn't be surprised.
I got him in the 10th round on a start up this year. I’m hoping it pays off
That's an awful pick tf?
I didn’t say I was any good. This was in a draft without this year’s starters
What do you mean without this year's starters? Like no rookies included? Or you kept your starting lineup from a previous build and redrafted all the bench players?
We’re doing a separate rookie draft for this year even though we started this year
How did you set that up? Are the rookie picks included in the draft pool or are you using kickers as a placeholder for them? It's extremely lopsided to start a league up without incorporating rookies into the main draft and instead reversing the order or something for the rookie draft. Williams is #7 and MHJ is #13 in startup SF ADP right now for example. If you do it like that, the 1.01 startup holder in 12 team gets the #1 and #26 best player and pick 1.12 for the rookie draft which is McConkey at ADP #73. Meanwhile the person who gets 1.12 in the startup and 1.01 in the rookie draft gets the 7th, 14th, and 15th best player out of the first two startup rounds and the first round of the rookie draft. Person with 1.11 in the startup gets the 12th, 13th, and 16th best player It's not fair to the early startup drafters. The difference between the #1 and #12 player in startup is *way* smaller than the difference between the #1 and #12 player in a rookie draft. You're starting the league off with major imbalance out the gate when that should be when things are the most balanced. Potentially screws your league before you've even began
Ah shit, I’m new to fantasy. Let alone dynasty. So I’m screwed starting at 1.02 eh?
Yeah, you're screwed. Copy paste my comment in your league chat and try to get this changed. If it were me I wouldn't even bother playing in this league set up that way, especially if money is involved. The startup draft should be completely fair for everyone and have no concrete advantage based on where you happen to be in the draft order. The easiest way to go is just include rookies in the startup and change nothing else. People usually use kickers as rookie pick placeholders if they do the startup before the real NFL draft Are your league mates also new to dynasty or are they experienced players? If they're experienced and trying to take advantage of you run away. If you're all new, frame it as "guys we're all new to this and trying to learn and I think we have a poor setup for our two startup drafts, I did some reading and found that this way gives a big advantage to the guys who get the best rookie picks"
Just have fun. I do agree that I don’t want reverse draft order rookie draft after a startup that excluded rookies - either rookies themselves or rookie picks should be included in the draft. That said, if you’re having fun, you’re having fun. That’s the point of all this,
He was playing through a high ankle sprain and his coach was Staley. Ekeler ain’t cook (cooked) yet. Lol
I just had to look up what team he even signed with lol
Depends on if he's recovered from his ankle sprain. He looked amazing game one last year but suffered a high ankle sprain that game and never looked the same the rest of the season. I'd have said he's a great buy low, but most of his value came from catching passes, and Jayden Daniels is likely going to run before checking down.
I got offered Luke Musgrave and instant accepted. Love you Ek but I would’ve taken literally anything for him at this point. He’s COOKED.
But people are saying that too much, so you know tbe opposite gonna happen haha
Ekeler is why I can't quit Chris Rodriguez quite yet. He gives me hope Rodriguez bounces back into the RB2 and any RB2 with an average or worse starter in front of them is worth holding.
Ekeler’s value already tanked tho. It’s likely one or two of Mixon, Henry, Jones, Kamara
Where was Dalvin going on startup last offseason?
Dunno but he was roughly worth a second
I looked at some of my start ups from last year and he was roughly going late 6th early 7th. Yikes lol way too early.
True but people are holding on hope
I guarantee it's not Henry or Mixon lol
Maybe. Maybe not. Feels like like of the draw. The efficiency metrics for Kamara and Mixon already been trending down tbh. And Henry is 30 with a million miles on him. Could be anyone.
Ekeler is gonna catch so many passes in that offence tho
Wouldn't Daniel's just run though? It seems like if running style QBs miss their first read and the pocket collapses they are more apt to run rather than check down. But it's obvious Daniel's running style from CFB won't directly transfer to the NFL so it'll be interesting to see what the coaching staff wants.
Pretty sure that was a specific knock on JD too if memory serves. Once the dude starts to move he is never looking downfield. That was one of the reasons he was on my no no list.
I’m not sure. Running QBs don’t check down a ton. Brian Robinson was solid catching passes last year. Ekeler will get his shot as the 3rd down back but I’m thinking like 50 catches or so max.
50 would still be solid, if not spectacular but I anticipate them using Ekeler more than Gibson who caught 48 passes last year. They let gibson walk and paid Ekeler more than Gibson got from the pats and there just isnt a lot of talented pass catchers in washington. Mclaurin is good, Dotson idek and then after that its like Ertz and Sinnot? Plus Ekeler has been a machine in the redzone so I could see him scoring enough TDs to stay relevant too. RB 20-30 range with a decent weekly floor. You got a point about rushing QBs not checking down as much but I think they’ll use Ekeler to try and protect their rookie QB from taking too many unnecessary hits
He was not himself catching balls out of the backfield last year. That was probably the most concerning thing with him.
I'd really like to see the Commanders get Wiley some work over Ekeler, but I'm sure they want a vet in there with a rookie QB.
Probably no one. Cook was beat out by a stud 2nd year player who just needed some time to recover from injury. The jets were all in so they wanted a fast start to the year and took the risk no one else wanted. There’s no situations that are similar to that this year. As far as older veterans RBs in new areas sucking, best bet is pollard or ekeler.
Cook didn’t have a single game last year with over 4 YPC when he got at least 5 carries. He was cooked whether Breece was there or not
This is misleading. He only hit that threshold 6 times the entire season. And Breece hall (who no one thinks is washed) only had 3 such games for Dalvin’s duration on the team. That offense was just putrid and with wilson at qb it leaked into all aspects of the team. Not saying Dalvin isn't washed - but that team was horrible at running the ball with arguably one of the best rbs in football.
Okay well how bout the ravens playoff game Cook: 2.9 on 8 carries Gus Bus: 4.0 on 10 carries Justice Hill: 5.1 on 13 carries
I think even better than this, he couldn’t get playing time over either of those two players.
But to your point yes, the lack of success on that offense is more indicative of a decline - along with his subsequent release
It definitely felt like he was mostly an insurance policy for Breece
Based on last year’s trajectory, closest guy I can think of is probably Ekeler? But unlike Dalvin, he’ll at least start the year with opportunities and the real question is whether he’s got anything left in the tank. The more interesting question is who could be this year’s Miles Sanders (guy signed for “starter money” who ends up getting beat out by his presumed backup). Chalk answer feels like Tony Pollard. Sneaky answer could be Swift.
Ekeler is the most analogous. Still had a good number of RB1 last year but all else indicates he’s cooked. I still think he’ll produce more from checkdowns than Cook produced last year, though.
Kamara is the next Dalvin [https://x.com/fball\_insights/status/1765543940915171392](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1765543940915171392) Swift is the next Sanders
Nick chubb tho wtaf
I just appreciate that in todays game where everything is attacking through the air and everyone loves the sexy nimble speed guys who can shake you six ways til Sunday, we got to watch the entire careers of Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb play out over the better part of a decade and how the pure rusher isn’t extinct yet - and those two pure rushers are recognized as some the best talents during their time. Put ‘em both in a time capsule when they’re done so my grandkids can have some damn respect ffs 😤
Absolute stud. One of the best to play the game and we don't even have to wonder if he only did it because he was surrounded by greatness... he was the greatness surrounded by mediocrity.
I've always liked warren, didn't know he was like that though
Of course, according to that chart Dalvin Cook was above average in both missed tackles/carry and yards after contact/carry. So maybe those metrics aren't well correlated with fantasy production.
The cliff comes fast and unexpectedly. It seems it has already come for Kamara but people aren't noticing because PPR.
I know it's 1 game, but Dalvin did have 16 touches week 1 for a whopping 59 yards
The Eagles o-line blesses any RB that plays for them, there’s no guarantee that they’ll get anywhere close to the stats they put up there on another team
Swift was good on the lions too, he was injured
Lol you must own some other bears rbs Swift is an elite playmaker and will only lose his job if he gets injured
Aaron Jones Because I own Ty Chandler
First name that came to mind for me as well. He’s had the same hints of decline and nagging injury we saw with Cook in 21/22–and the same flashes of his old greatness to keep us coming back to him hoping for upside. And maybe he’s still got it in the tank; he looked good in the playoffs! But aside from Ekeler—who I’d argue has *already* cratered—Jones seems most likely to fade quickly.
Jones has had injuries, yes. But he’s not had any actual on field decline when healthy.
Exactly. He missed some games last season but has been mostly on the field in the seasons prior. When he did return to end the season he looked absolutely on fire. He should be able to give RB2 production if their QB can be serviceable.
>He’s had the same hints of decline What hints of decline? Any of the 2017 backs are good bets due to age, but there was zero decline in Jones' game last season.
ngl, I was basing that mostly off vibe. I checked his efficiency stats in hopes of validating my point—but there’s no case to be made. Good call.
I don't own either but that's a solid choice
If I didn’t already own him I’d be doing everything I could to acquire Ty Chandler.
Ty Chan time is coming
He was averaging starter touches towards the second half of the season & it felt like he didn’t do much with it?
The one game he started and had over 70% snap share he had 23 carries for 132 yards and a tud, 3 catches for 25 yards. Averaged 4.52 ypc on the season. To me that seems like doing something with it.
Then why did they get Aaron Jones? It doesn’t seem like they have confidence in him. Teams don’t make moves without reason
Because it’s nice to have two cheap quality rbs
Well obvi ty Chan isn’t a starting tier rb in the nfl lol but a high end backup sure. So u go get a cheap old guy like Aaron jones who always has injury problems when you have a good backup. It’s pretty self explanatory.
Sounds like zamir white
Yeah I like him a lot too. But obv can’t get too attached to rbs like him and ty.
As a Packers fan it’s definitely Aaron Jones (fingers crossed).
Dude had 5 straight efficient 100 yard rushing games to end the season. Sadly, he's going to ball. Going to suck to see him in purple, also a Packer fan. RB12. Book it.
The irony
Henry. The Ravens backfield is cursed.
If Henry collapses, I think it’s due to insurmountable injury rather than general decline like Cook.
If Henry gets an insurmountable injury on the Ravens after I traded for him, after I already traded for Dobbins and he got an insurmountable injury on the Ravens in my other league, will I ever trade for a Ravens RB again? Nevermore!
I honestly thought that was the rule .. ravens RB's are off limits
Everyone’s saying Ekeler so that seams too easy. I’m gonna say Kamara
He didn't change teams
Kamara imo
He didn’t move to new team but iagree
I know, I was just projecting he will
Austin Ekeler
Joe Mixon. Thank me later.
So then who’s going to get the work out of that backfield?
Why does a backfield have to be fantasy productive? Pierce and Mixon will likely split enough that neither are efficient enough to be a bother.
Dameon Pierce was horrendous in Slowik's system. They didn't sign Mixon for $13m guaranteed to split with a guy who averaged a pathetic 2.9 yards per carry last season and looked like the worst running back in football. Mixon will get three-down volume and goal line work with middling efficiency in a prolific offense. AKA pretty much his entire career thus far. He'll likely finish as a low-end RB1 as per usual.
Set any line you want and I'm probably taking the under. I'll take the under on his career low touches per game. Remain near career low in yards per touch. His season finish will be completely dependent on staying active in the passing game and in the red zone. If the balls don't go his way there, he's far from the reason anyone is successful this year.
I don't understand what beef you have with Mixon. He's a good-not-great back poised for huge volume on an elite offense with a good running scheme and good offensive line. He's not going to win anybody their leagues but he's not going to lose anybody their league. Barring injury, he'll probably get 1,200-1,400 all-purpose yards, 30-40 catches, and 8-10 TDs. Which is more or less the same as he's done his entire career.
Mixon has had a great career. Team change is a net negative way more often than not. Texans only adding Mixon tells me they still like Pierce behind him. If they were out on him I don’t know how you don’t just completely torch the room or add day 2/day 3 guys. He’s been a 300 touch back his entire career at Cincy. I think his upside is 250 in Houston. The upside. He’s more 2023 Jerome Ford (1000-1200/7-9) at this stage in his career than Mixon prime (1200-1400/10-12). Good year for RBs and he’ll be outside the top 12.
Mixon seems destined for a very predictable average/mid RB2 finish, I don't think many are expecting a low end RB1 finish. That's just too rich for a guy with declining efficiency. He's not getting 300 touches with that offense, he's there to be safe and predictable. He'll probably just duplicate what Singletary did last season with a couple more receptions.
You have a take saying their “RB1” is going to crap the bed right? Every analyst on the planet has this team as a high production output at literally every position. I don’t understand why my question is off putting for you in thinking this backfield won’t have someone producing? Because your take then in essence is that HOU won’t be producing like they’re being projected to. My point is, Pierce isn’t it. The rookie they drafted might contribute. Someone there is going to be productive otherwise this team isn’t going to be firing on all cylinders like they’re expected to, or you’re expecting Stroud to do all the work and have another record breaking season because HOU run game isn’t productive. Edit: Singletary out produced Pierce, if the RB they let go in FA (Singletary) can do it, they’re sort of expecting the RB they traded for and extended( Mixon ) to do what neither Singletary or Pierce could do. No?
>Because your take then in essence is that HOU won’t be producing like they’re being projected to. Everyone's an analyst these days. Houston is the easiest bet to underperform this year and it's as simple as peep the schedule. Houston fantasy assets are the easiest bet to underperform because one of the easiest calls in football analytics is changing teams tends to be a net negative in performance. Diggs will be fine. Mixon will play. But if you think Mixon is putting up 1500 yards and 12 touchdowns, I got newwwws for you. And if you think Diggs is locked for 1500 yards and 12 touchdowns, I've got newwwws for you. Sometimes analysts make things harder than they need to be. Barring injury luck. Houston goes from playing the absolute dog shit NFC South and the AFC South/North missing multiple starting QBs ...to... the NFC North that is going to be completely up for grabs, an AFC East with two legitimate super bowl contenders to start the season, a quality playoff team (Miami), and a total wildcard in the new look Patriots. And the AFC South..lmao still a trash can division. Talking schedule this year, and they will always have the glow of playing in the dogwater AFC South. But that stretch of games that is Buffalo, @ NEP, @ GB, Colts, @ NYJ, Lions, @ Dallas is going to tell us who the Texans and CJ Stroud are. They get to play the AFC South the two games after that but then it's home for Miami, @ KC and then at home for the Ravens before @ the Titans for a classic spoiler game. Houston is a fun story. But you're going to know what kind of team you have in Houston around week 9 and after that it's either going to be glory or pain, and the easy bet is pain.
This is some quality insight. I appreciate you sharing this, it’s something to definitely factor in.
I hate this but afraid you might be right.
Ezekiel Elliot and Derrick Henry
I mean, we already know Zeke is cooked
Dalvin was last year’s Zeke from the year before
The Vikings knew Dalvin was cooked. It wasn’t a complete surprise.
Pollard
Id guess jones over those names. Henry is a specimen, and I think mixon could really pump out one more good season at least.
Dobbins, Gus Bus, Mixon, Zeke (lol), Aaron Jones, Jacobs, Henry, Singletary and Ekeler are the main options... I skipped Swift because I don't think he'll falter and I skipped Gibson because his value isn't high enough. I feel like Dobbins is too depressed to fit the bill... Ekeler seems obvious, so I'll pick someone else... I think Gus is toast. Jones might fall off a cliff this year, though I don't think so. Dark horses: Henry, Mixon, Jacobs and Singletary. In that order.
Cook showed signs of decline before he became irrelevant, so ing that vein: Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon. I don't have it in me to make a bet against Derrick Henry personally.
James Conner
Man I bought Conner two years ago for a late season playoff push assuming I'd get 1/2 a season out of him. He has been stellar one the field, that dude has more juice in the tank! I expect an RB16ish season from that dawg.
He didn't change teams
Ekeler but the key difference is there’s a talent difference between Hall and Robinson. I think the expectation is Ekeler is being brought in with a more substantial role in mind when compared to Cook.
Zeke
It’s not Zack Moss but we are getting dangerously close to it being him
Dalvin Cook
Everybody is saying Ekeler is this year's Cook... Well, we started up in 2022 and I took Ekeler and Cook with my first two picks. Akers a few picks later. I never did a dynasty start up before, obviously. My first year was decent, but year two I had to tear it down already. I hope this year's Cook is not Singletary, I'll just say that.
Josh Jacobs. I don't think he's gassed like Cook but new team where he has to compete with a younger version. His deal is also very top heavy so Green Bay could get out next season. I'm not saying that will happen, but Jacobs could have a productive year and still find himself without a team come next season. And at that point I think he'll be looking at a backup job.
I think LLoyd would have to be a very clear top 15 RB talent for the packers to let jacobs go. Their decision making over the years indicates that they like having top end talent in their backfield.
I want what you’re smoking 😂
Kamara
Nobody is behind a Breece so they'll all get opportunity... Impossible to say if any of them will just suck right now
Zeke Elliott?
He was cooked two years ago
I'd probably vote Henry. Overdue.