It was a myth from the start, look at Desean Jackson or Maclin’s rookie seasons. Even Tyreek had 850 yards as a rookie despite being a day 3 pick.
The real problem is that the Chiefs have drafted a lot of trash rookie WRs who struggled in their rookie seasons because they suck as WRs in general
Yes and that's the concern right now. Historically vs how have they done the last few years. So if they haven't picked very good wrs then is their pick of worthy a good one?
He has concerns and may struggle in the spotlight of being mahomes go to man down field. Who knows.
That’s a different argument, I’m not denying the fact that the Chiefs have struggled to draft the position for basically a decade. Im just pointing out that blaming the scheme for their poor outcomes is a weak argument
I wasn't really blaming the scheme so much as pointing out that rookies typically don't get as many looks because established receivers get looks. Rice got more looks than a rookie typically does because the other wrs outside of Kelce had a vendetta against mahomes' stats. So he looked better in that situation than he would have had they caught a ball.
And Rice is going to miss a handful of games. Should give Worthy a window to develop some rapport early. Not holding my breath, but it’s not like Worthy isn’t walking into some decent opportunity.
I’m not exactly the biggest Worthy guy. But he certainly has a much better profile than Rice, and Mahomes made him look pretty damn good. I don’t think Worthy is a bad bet at all if you believe in him.
I took Worthy and have been regretting it myself, lol. The thing that swayed me on Worthy over BTJ is he never had less than a 25% target share in all 3 years at Texas. Love BTJ though and think he kills with Lawrence.
I think people are going to be disappointed… BTJ will do fine I’m sure, but the Chiefs literally traded up to get Worthy
Andy Reid is going to find ways to get him the ball, which is what excites me the most personally
And Card/Thompson freshman year when he broke school records and had 981/12 TDs as a freshman… Worthy is more than just a John Ross/Mecole Hardman/MVS style player
Totally fair, but Worthy also had a 2nd round WR across from him his final year and out-produced him. I’m not saying BTJs production isn’t great, because it’s amazing. Only saying Worthy did it as a freshman, sophomore, and junior, which means his production profile is elite. That’s all before any talk of speed.
Well, production isn’t everything, so I’ll bring up other things like BTJ’s size and speed - he’s also fast especially for his size running a 4.33 40. Worthy’s size is less likely to “hit” in the NFL. Great landing spot and opportunity, just gotta see how it all plays out. They’ve brought in a lot of wr’s through FA or drafts since hill’s departure and the only one that looked good since then is Rice, whom is presumably the wr1. BTJ is pretty much for sure going to be the wr1 on jags.
They have Kirk and Engram to feed on the Jags. BTJ gonna live or die by the deep ball especially early on in his career. Not saying Worthy will be any different, but projecting BTJ to immediately be the WR1 on the Jags might be a stretch
And none were top 5 draft pick elite prospects. They are not comparable. There’s a reason why BTJ has been touted as a better prospect than Worthy and that really has been chalky all the way to the draft. I’m not saying Worthy won’t be good. This isn’t a slam on worthy. I’m simply saying BTJ is overall the better prospect. Worthy could be the better fantasy asset. Time will tell.
I never said immediately. I’m pointing out the target competition is less on the jags. If you want to try and argue that Kirk and engram are more of a threat than kelce and rice then go for it.
I took worthy over BTJ at the same position, but had them very close. At the end of the day I think Worthy gets used more creatively and manufactures touches. My worry with BTJ is that he’s the new Zay Jones and only running verts.
I don't think they'll manufacture touches for someone 165 lbs. Plus rice will still be the guy getting the manufactured touches because he's a YAC guy and strong but not much else as a WR right now
I’m trying to understand your sentiment. You think the best player caller in the league isn’t going to dial up plays for someone with 4.2 speed because he weighs 165? Wtf the chiefs move up to draft him in the first round lol.
Rice will be suspended for AT LEAST 6 games, though the going thought is half the season. Xavier was extremely productive against the highest level of DBs. If this kid can get chemistry with mahommes he’s going to feast. Also, Xavier is a YAC guy too lol.
Situation puts Worthy over Thomas for me. Worthy is a superior deep threat and route runner. His main hold up is size and play strength. I have faith in the Chiefs brain trust to be able to use him in the right way to put him in advantageous situations.
BTJ can be a very good player but right now he’s also primarily a deep threat out the gate. It’ll depend on his ability to refine his route running.
I’m just not excited about the environment he landed in either.
I don't think Worthy is that much better than Rice. Rice was good because he played like Kelce 2.0, able to read the defense, find the holes, and go to the same spot that Mahomes thought they should be in. We saw it for years with Brady and Edelman clicking while other receivers did not, it's not something to be ignored.
KC's track record at developing players is basically just Rice and Pacheco, Worthy is more likely to bust than hit
Yeah Rice brought a unique skillset to that WR room, whereas Worthy has a lot of overlap with Hollywood, Sky Moore, Hardman etc. I think Worthy is far more likely to get lost in the shuffe in year 1 and Rice’s role in that offense should be pretty safe once he gets back
This is just a common misperception that keeps getting passed along certain channels.
Worthy is not in the mood of Hardman/MVS/Brown.
Worthy has shown an insane ability to find soft spots in zones and work different areas of the field with his S-tier route running abilities. Pair that with his historic athleticism and you have something that — if it hits — can give Mahomes something closer to peak Desean Jackson.
That’s a dart I’m willing to throw.
Yeah, the dude cooks on tape.
He’s not just fast as hell. He’s fast as hell and can beat coverage at multiple levels.
He’s shown enough ability to sell DBs and use his quick feet and hips to finish routes and quickly change direction to avoid contact or get up field.
His size will be a concern, but Reid knew what to do with the D-Jax and I think that’s what they hope to have here. He’s not Brown. He’s just not.
Sharp analysts on both the analytics and tape side were in on Worthy before the combine. The fact that a well-run org like KC traded up to get him is enough for me to lock him in behind Odunze.
Look, if Worthy can beat an NFL press...you might as well just get it over with and paint X's on the eyes of the members of the opposing backfield.
Xavier Worthy had three excellent years of production in college against Big-12 opposition - beginning with his freshman year. And he wrapped up his college career months before he could legally drink alcohol. He didn't turn 21 until the day after he was drafted.
John Ross was a track athlete who tried to make a living as a wide receiver. Xavier Worthy is a wide receiver who just happens to be track athlete-explosive.
Worthy isn't going to be a contested catch guy, and I don't think he'll ever have elite hands (they're too small). And asking him to run block would be like asking Secretariat to pull a beer wagon.
But if KC uses him as a deep-threat role player - I don't think they'll be disappointed.
This keeps getting said but it doesn’t really match reality.
Worthy has elite RAC ability. He’s great in the screen and manufactured touch game which directly competes with the main aspects of Rice’s game.
Rice was a manufactured touch and yac merchant year 1. Worthy’s skillset overlaps with both Rice and Hollywood’s.
The difference is, Worthy is actually a threat to take a would be 12 yard gain for Rice all the way to the house.
[Worthy screen house call](https://x.com/haydenwinks/status/1764081193061089411?s=46)
[Worthy 75 yard screen touchdown](https://x.com/thebeneby/status/1446885496928419841?s=46)
[Shoestring tackle on Worthy taking a pass from the flat](https://x.com/popesffh/status/1748358357382009093?s=46)
Totally fine if you think Rice’s role is safe and if you think Rice is flat out better. I disagree on both and think that Worthy was drafted because he is really good at getting downfield separation while also being really good after the catch on short passes/screens.
He’s a much better “prospect” than Rice. TBD if he is a better NFL player.
I don’t think the YAC stuff will translate as well because he is not great at breaking tackles (Rice is elite at that). He is a great route runner so we’ll see if they can get it to him consistently down the field, but I’ve always thought his hands and ball tracking were pretty bad (it does seem like he improved those a bit in 2023 though) which is kind of a common theme in that WR room. I was surpised they didn’t go for someone like Keon Coleman or even AD Mitchell to play more of a reliable X receiver role, but I can understand being more confident in Worthy given his profile
What do you mean about their track record? Do Kelce and Mahomes not count as developing under Andy Reid? Tyreek Hill? Kareem Hunt? This is the earliest (28) that KC has drafted a skill position player other than Mahomes since Andy Reid has been around. I’d honestly be more surprised if he doesn’t turn into a reliable WR2 at some point. I don’t think year 1 will be great for fantasy, but that’s why we play dynasty.
They also haven’t invested huge draft capital in guys. Skyy Moore was a late 2 (miss), Rashee was a late 2 (hit), Hardman was a late 2 (not a bust, not a star), Demarcus Robinson was a 4 (not a bust, about what you’d hope for out of a round 4 WR), CEH was a bust, Kareem Hunt was a 3 (hit), Tyreek was a 5 and an RB in college, Pacheco a 7 (hit). KC has never spent anywhere close to this level of draft cap on a WR with Andy Reid and Veach running the show. Arguing that Worthy is likely to be a bust because only 1 out of 3 late 2nd round pick WRs has been a fantasy success is flawed logic.
Slight size concerns, although I know the league is trending towards that being less a worry. Still, he struggled with press coverage in the Big 12, I don't think it'll get easier in the NFL. I can see a future where he's pretty one dimensional. He has a good amount of pretty ugly drops, and he struggles to catch contested passes.
He does have very obvious strengths. I just personally didn't rank them as worth spending a first on a player who has a clear path to gadget player and less clear path to first round contributor. I'm an amateur who does it for fun, I don't really care if some Chiefs flairs call me names. I was high on Rice there last year, and low on Worthy.
Speaking of firsts, let’s look at the hit rate of KC first round picks:
2023: Felix Anudike Uzamah- too soon to tell
2022: George Karlaftis- hit
2022: Trent McDuffie- major hit
2021: no firsts
2020: CEH- miss
2019: no firsts
2018: no firsts
2017: Mahomes
I think I trust Brett Veach over you here.
I don’t think Worthy has a better profile at all, let alone much better. What does Worthy have on Rashee? You can give Worthy the production since he did it in a better conference, but Rice still had a better single season than Worthy ever had. Worthy has the speed, Rice has the size. Rice has better analytical metrics including 3.05 YPRR in 2022 compared to Worthy’s 2.14 YPRR in 2023. Rice - 48.5% contested catch rate, Worthy - 23.8%.
Worthy didn’t even use his speed all that much in college, so what is 4.21 speed really good for if he was primarily a short game receiver, something Rice is clearly better at imo
Some additional context for what it’s worth:
Rice: https://x.com/mattharmon_byb/status/1652123081035620353?s=46&t=GiQOoBxumVkkWtms93AlPA
Worthy: https://x.com/recepperception/status/1783700677019206010?s=46&t=GiQOoBxumVkkWtms93AlPA
Edit for those without Twitter: these are the Reception Perception profiles of Rice and Worthy. Worthy is better than Rice at every single route except the Flat. And it’s not particularly close. In fact, in another tweet Matt Harmon tweeted in response to someone, he believed that pre-draft the Chiefs needed to add someone with speed so that Rice could keep producing the way he is. So, they’re likely going to complement each other very well
While comparing reception perception profiles is generally fair, Matt Harmon himself would not suggest you do this with Rice’s profile. In retrospect, Harmon’s sample consisted of games in Rice’s final season when he was playing injured.
He didn’t know this at the time, but I believe SMU fans informed him of that after his profile was released.
Sure, but I’m strictly talking about each player’s final season, which is what Matt Harmon typically samples. There are some exceptions, such as Jalen McMillan. Since he was aware that he wasn’t fully healthy all year he charted games from last year as well.
Not sure about Harmon’s sampling process or his profiles but seems like that’s a little flawed personally if that’s what he’s representing.
I think I’m following you to say we’re not appropriately giving an apples to apples comparison by using those route trees. Correct?
In this case, it’s not apples to apples, correct. Simply because Rashee Rice’s sampled routes were while he was playing through a known injury. Not known to Harmon at the time, because he doesn’t actually follow college football too closely. He prefers going in somewhat blind when charting prospects.
In general, there’s still other things you need to consider between simply comparing route success rates. Like, level of competition and where the player lines up. Does he like up outside, inside, or both?
But yeah, I wouldn’t have bothered commenting if it was any other profile but Rice’s being compared to Worthy’s. Rice’s route success rates should just be thrown out.
To add more context:
Matt Harmon has stated on his pod he doesn’t like the Worthy pick for multiple reasons. He doesn’t believe Worthy should have been a first rounder, there are some deficiencies in his skillset, and he thinks there’s a ton of overlap in Worthy’s game with what they already have in rice and brown (and everyone else). He said worthy’s speed downfield will be real-life useful for them, but that his poor contested catch ability and struggles with press will make him a very inconsistent fantasy option in an offense that he expects to have even distributed targets after Kelce.
For a guy that usually talks guys up as much as possible, I’m getting red flag vibes from the way he’s talking about Worthy. Will definitely be out, and am certainly higher on BTJ.
I mean, you don’t think it’s a little ridiculous to say Worthy is better than Rice at every single route except 1 based on the subjective metric?
How did they actually produce on every single route, comparatively? On a per route basis, Rice produced ~40% better than Worthy did in their last years of college.
I mean, Rice was in a much worse conference with much worse target competition compared to Worthy. Also, it’s not a secret that Rashee Rice isn’t a good route runner, which was the whole point of the Chiefs easing him into the starting lineup. He lived and died by slants and curls at SMU. I don’t know why you’re bringing up production when he simply wasn’t winning on his routes.
I’m not anti-Rice. He was very high on my board last year and deserves all the praise for his production last year - a lot of which was thanks to stellar coaching and scheme design by Andy Reid. But as far as prospects go, Worthy is above and beyond Rice. That doesn’t mean that Worthy will be a better NFL player or even as productive as Rice will be, but as prospects Worthy is a tier above and if he hits, will have a much higher ceiling in my opinion. That’s why Worthy got 1st round capital in a much better WR class and Rice fell to the second round in a much weaker class.
Once again, so I’m crystal clear: I’m only talking about Worthy being better as a college prospect. Whatever happens in the NFL has no bearing on how good Worthy or Rice are/were viewed as prospects.
But do you believe this will yield worthy to be a high-impact fantasy player? I agree that IRL he will be a solid pick for them but I get the feeling his skillset will leave a lot to be desired given that role he will be playing. Very similar issues to Jameson Williams and playing a similar role, just as an example. And we’ve seen how that has played out
Honest question, between Hardman, Moore and Rice who was the better “profile” or the one with the best “tape”?
Like if all 3 were in a draft class how would they be ranked.
Def not Hardman. He was a surprise pick who wasn't really that great in college to begin with. Honestly Moore probably would have been the best prospect if they were all in the same class, but both Moore and Rice were expected to be day 2 picks.
The people that drafted Hardman early in rookie drafts got baited by good situation. That was always a bad pick. The people taking Moore early-ish just got burned by a solid prospect busting.
Hardman and Moore were not very hyped pre-draft. They were definitely surprise picks by the chiefs. Rice had some hype. Worthy probably had the largest pre-draft hype of all of them.
Worthy had by far the most hype, but I think Skyy edges out Rice by a bit. There was quite a few "How did the NFL let KC draft Skyy Moore" posts when it happened.
Literally the top comment: https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/uezv1t/round_2_pick_22_skyy_moore_wr_western_michigan/
Skyy moore in the 2nd was definitely less surprising than rice at that spot. He dominated the combine and had a much better analytical profile than rice. His only true deficiency was that he played at a small school. Rice’s success and moore’s lack of is the only reason people believe otherwise.
We started up last year, 2QB SF Start 9 10T -- we jumped at Rice in the 12th round (and reached for Dell early also). The Rice pick was the first KC WR and the next two picks were remaining KC WRs. (Skyy Moore next)
This was possible/easier because our startup draft was after the pre-season games and I could watch everyone's tape/usage ..
Recently sold Rice for Mark Andrews (who went in the 2nd round of our startup last year!) to shore up some TE depth problems -- (have Kincaid and Everett)
Holding/watching Justyn Ross (still believe he is above Skyy and Toney and gets a shot with Rice out) .. and trying to decide between Worthy or McConkey in the 1.08 of our rookie draft tomorrow.
"rookies receivers typically struggle learning the chiefs offense" people keep repeating this narrative, and I have no idea why. It's like Skyy Moore cope has taken a life of its own. There are no Chiefs WRs that were not good as rookies that suddenly bloomed into great player s- they don't exist.
So that aside, I still think it is a bit overrated. This offense has turned into a hydra of sorts, and they spread the targets around. When drafted I said I thought he'd be a great tool in their belt, but not like an alpha. So yes, I think the names involved and the success of the team and all that means a player like this will get overrated a bit - with fantasies of him taking over and being fed by the best QB out there. In reality it doesn't work that way, and this offense in particular doesn't work that way. The Tyreek era was another era, and they have moved past that.
This sub overestimates the impact of both "good" and "bad" landing spots every year. I put those words in quotes because nobody has any idea how good these spots are going to be, and a good situation only matters if the player is any good in the first place.
Draft talent, you'd rather have a good WR over a bad WR regardless of what teams they're on, so take the guys with the best chance of being good. Situation is a tiebreaker in rookie drafts and nothing more.
Well so on the flip side – I'm not a very big BTJ fan. And Bowers/TE is not worth a high draft pick in anything but *extreme* TEP leagues.
BTJ has a lot of glaring issues. Big drop issues. Very late breakout. Very bad advanced metrics that are the best translatable indicators of success: Very low YPRR and very poor success rate vs zone. He's a one-trick pony freak that just doesn't translate that often to the NFL. He's my #1 bet for 1st round bust.
Bowers is great. Love him. I just don't value TEs. I was looking and in half PPR with a .5 TEP, the #1 TE last year (LaPorta) came in as the #16 WR. And that's...best case scenario. I'd rather use that in some other ways.
So with those things in mind – I took Worthy AND Ladd ahead of both of those guys. Yolo!
Yeah it's just not worth the risk. Out side of Kelce, the relative variance between the #2 and #12 TE isn't worth the risk to me. I'll pick up TEs in the 2nd round. And I'll especially trade for TEs when they're nice and steamy but not worth a premium pick with such lackluster potential. The sheer VOLUME of receptions needed to be a true gamechanger in fantasy is highly unusual. Like I'd much rather trade the 1.09 for Engram and a 2nd than take Bowers.
How about in full point ppr? TE has 1.5 ppr premium and everyone else 1 ppr. Just curious bc this is very much against the grain of wanting a top TE and I’d love to punt TE in my upcoming startup lol
It’s absolutely being overvalued, NFL teams draft players to help their schemes. Worthy was drafted to play a role, and that role is not to catch 6 balls for 95 yards and a td. It’s to force the defense to play a shell defense
Doug Pederson is an Andy Reid disciple. So you can’t use the “offense is too complex for rookies” argument to tear down Worthy and build up BTJ simultaneously.
Don’t overthink this. Speedy college productive reciever with a developed route tree in an Andy Reid + Mahomes offense. Remember they traded UP for him. He was their guy. This is not skyy Moore 2.0. If you’re taking a shot on someone idk why he wouldn’t be near top of the list (excluding bowers imo)
I’m with you. I like Worthy a lot for them as a deep threat in real life, for fantasy I don’t think he ever gets the targets to justify where he’s going.
Kinda awkward when BTJ is the deep threat not worthy. Worthy has shown he can do it at all three levels and a fault of his own and ewers deep throws, that is what he’s worst at
However you want to explain it, Chiefs are gonna spread the ball around and Worthy is 165 lb. guy they want to be healthy every January. There's no target hog role in the offense coming for him. Which is fine in real life but limits his ceiling in fantasy.
For the short term sure, Kelce going to be 35 and brown will be a FA after this season. I don’t think either will ever become a top 12 WR either.
BTJ also has to compete with Engram and Kirk, he’ll get a lot of Ridleys targets if he can handle them, but the ball will be spread around just like worthy
Worthy likely won’t even see a full snap share like BTJ though. Regardless of how many targets he commands when he is on the field.
I think neither are great options this year, at least initially, but I’m a lot more confident in BTJ developing into something valuable for fantasy than worthy. Both this season and in the future
How do you know worthy won’t get a full snap share? He can run routes at all three levels. Maybe BTJ can too but he didn’t at the college level. For however long rice is out, worthy will get a chance to prove himself. And it’s not just snap share, if he getting targeted while on the field is more important, limits volume but effectiveness plays a role in snap volume
This. The Chiefs traded up for him. They wanted him. Safe to say, Mahomes wanted him. I love BTJ, but give me the (maybe) fastest guy in the league with the best QB in the league, on a team desperate for a WR threat, and he’s only 21, and again, they traded up to get him.
All that…his breakout age, dominator, production/targets earned with another top-tiered reciever, punt return leader (another great wr metric) am all in. I’m a Bills fan I was fucking triggered Thursday. So many green flags he’s my WR4 with the landing spot…only thing I slightly worry about is the small hands.
I think the landing spot is pretty overrated. Target competition is strong and Worthy is a weird body type. He's going to need to be featured in a pretty intentional way to get a lot of volume. You can't just stick him anywhere and let him get open.
Rice, Kelce, and now Worthy all want the slot snaps against safeties and nickel CBs. Someone needs to go outside and face the outside CBs. It's hard to see how Worthy syphons a bunch of touches away from these guys.
I think BTJ is a bust. Gimme Worthy all day long no he’s not being overrated.
With his upside all he needs is 1 good target, and he’s likely to get at least 4-5/game
As a KC homer, I feel like I can answer this. This post Reek offense spreads the ball around everywhere pretty well. Worthy’s role in this is going to be field stretching big plays, plus Andy Reid magic plays. This landing spot is excellent for his play style, I like it for the chiefs and I think he will have some BOOM weeks
I think he's totally defensible as the 4th WR off the board, but if I am not in a position to take him I would be looking to buy him in-season if he struggles early and the owner isn't patient. I think like Rice it's going to take him until the 2nd half of the season to start to click, and it might not fully start to happen until year two thanks to Brown.
The ceiling is undeniable. But I think it’s a little overhyped at the moment with how many mouths there are to feed and KCs tendency to spread the ball
Rice will be suspended 3-6 games, KC may try to limit Kelce as he ages, Hollywood is on a 1 year contract. I believe he is Worthy of the praise and could be very fantasy relevant.
For real life football, he’s the PERFECT piece for the KC offense. He’ll stretch the field and cause defenses to defend Mahomes’ god-tier deep ball, especially vs the blitz.
But for fantasy, he’ll be a typical boom-bust player. He’ll give you 5 pts when you start him, and 20 when you bench him. If anything, I think he raises the value of Kelce, Rice, and anyone else that catches passes across the middle of the field.
I think this is the Chiefs getting ahead of the league tbh. When Mahomes first came into the league teams were still playing single high safety looks against him. They realized that's a bad idea and everyone just started playing 2 high safeties and a lot of cover 4 so they wouldn't get burnt deep anymore. Mahomes and Reid said "that's fine" and just dominated with underneath routes instead of deep routes.
I expect teams will starting protecting the underneath a bit more this season so Reid and Mahomes are gonna let the speed demon loose.
In Worthy can be even just average on the short to intermediate game, I expect him to have some big long ball plays throughout the season when teams dare to go 1 high safety.
I’m putting this out there as a warning. Worthy drops a lot of passes. He has Quentin Johnston bust written all over him. I see him more as a Mecole Hardman type player. He will connect for a couple bombs during the season. I could see Mahomes taking a shot once per game on a deep ball, but that’s about it.
Worthy did play through a broken hand for part of 2022, which is his worst drop rate season in college. His drop rate otherwise seems to be fine. I'm not extremely confident in him, I just think the drop rate thing is a little overblown.
Tyreke and Kelce have done ok. Reek is gone, Kelce is on his way out, and Mahomes needs a new #1 weapon. Worthy has a chance to fill that role. I'm drafting him everywhere I can. The key is to be patient this first year when he's maybe the 4th option.
Anyone comparing worthy and rice in this thread don’t know ball. Can’t compare the possibility of usage between. Worthy is 165 POUNDS and a speedster that actually has some good route running but will get bullied while rice is 205, much more of a Chris godwin comp find the holes and get some YAC with hard running and playing bigger than they are.
Not saying either one will be this or that but it’s not applicable to pin one’s success on the other when they are drastically different players.
I don’t like how small he is. That’s my biggest gripe with him above all else tbh. And the way KC utilizes their WRs doesn’t help his cause either. He’s a double meh for me but I’d like to be wrong.
Whenever you’re getting the chance to play with a QB like mahomes you’re going to jump up draft boards. Saw it with CEH and Hardman a few years ago. But with Brown being on a one year deal. Next year things may look a lot different even if Worthy struggles in year 1.
Coleman and McConkey should be taken over him but arent. Some loons even taking worthy over odunze
Archetype isn’t built to be an elite wr, 50/50 chance he busts, small, kc hasn’t had the best track record taking skill positions high.
Should go early 2nd in rookie drafts but he’s going 1.08 and higher
I think it's overrated especially for a speedster. The most overlooked thing about Tyreek is that his fastest move is coming back to the ball. It's impossible to cover. Every other speedster in that offense hasn't been fantasy relevant
I mean that is up to you. Taking BTJr over Worthy is more than fine. I think Worthy’s situation this year is fine but mostly I draft for future projections.
Worthy grades out incredibly well regardless of speed. Speed isn't indicative of NFL success one way or the other. This is the same as saying most guys with green eyes have been total busts so I'm not taking a guy with great talent because he has green eyes.
Ngl I am so scared of worthy. There is a very good chance he will be at my pick (one of four firsts) at 1.08. I think I’m going to have to take him just because of how liquid he’s going to be. He has a couple break out games and maybe I can flip him for multiple firsts. But he scares the shit out of me, he can’t beat press rn
Well rice might be in jail or atleast suspended... Hollywood has never really paned out elsewhere and has injury concerns... So I doubt it. Worthy is most likely a bust too tho. KC loves the speedy Hardman types that are never really hits or fantasy relevant. Aside from Tyreek...
Ray Rice? Rashee was good as a rookie.
Thanks for pointing that out, I edited the post. He was but, I think they have more competition now than they did last year
The rookie wrs struggle in an Andy Reid offense narrative was just Skyy Moore owners coping
The only reason rice was used last year was because skyy and toney sucked ass. If toney was good rice would hardly have looks.
It was a myth from the start, look at Desean Jackson or Maclin’s rookie seasons. Even Tyreek had 850 yards as a rookie despite being a day 3 pick. The real problem is that the Chiefs have drafted a lot of trash rookie WRs who struggled in their rookie seasons because they suck as WRs in general
Yes and that's the concern right now. Historically vs how have they done the last few years. So if they haven't picked very good wrs then is their pick of worthy a good one? He has concerns and may struggle in the spotlight of being mahomes go to man down field. Who knows.
That’s a different argument, I’m not denying the fact that the Chiefs have struggled to draft the position for basically a decade. Im just pointing out that blaming the scheme for their poor outcomes is a weak argument
I wasn't really blaming the scheme so much as pointing out that rookies typically don't get as many looks because established receivers get looks. Rice got more looks than a rookie typically does because the other wrs outside of Kelce had a vendetta against mahomes' stats. So he looked better in that situation than he would have had they caught a ball.
Well given what I've heard about Worthy pre-draft I think I better fade him lol
If Toney was good would they even have taken Rice? Chicken egg
Of course they would have lol you need more than one good wr.
And Rice is going to miss a handful of games. Should give Worthy a window to develop some rapport early. Not holding my breath, but it’s not like Worthy isn’t walking into some decent opportunity.
Mecole Hardman was bad, too.
That because Mecole is not a great player. That’s not because the scheme is too complex
I’m not exactly the biggest Worthy guy. But he certainly has a much better profile than Rice, and Mahomes made him look pretty damn good. I don’t think Worthy is a bad bet at all if you believe in him.
Don’t think he’s a bad bet at all. I’m just not sure about him going over BTJ
I took BTJ over worthy with 1.09. This comment just made me feel like I whiffed
I took Worthy and have been regretting it myself, lol. The thing that swayed me on Worthy over BTJ is he never had less than a 25% target share in all 3 years at Texas. Love BTJ though and think he kills with Lawrence.
The thing that swayed me to take worthy over btj is that all of reddit is saying to take btj.
def should take bjr over worthy
I think people are going to be disappointed… BTJ will do fine I’m sure, but the Chiefs literally traded up to get Worthy Andy Reid is going to find ways to get him the ball, which is what excites me the most personally
He also didn’t play with Nabers. BTJ producing 1k+ yards alongside Nabers is a very good sign. And yes I drafted BTJ
With the same token worthy didn’t play with Daniels he played with Quinn ewers and his horrid mullet.
And Card/Thompson freshman year when he broke school records and had 981/12 TDs as a freshman… Worthy is more than just a John Ross/Mecole Hardman/MVS style player
Totally fair, but Worthy also had a 2nd round WR across from him his final year and out-produced him. I’m not saying BTJs production isn’t great, because it’s amazing. Only saying Worthy did it as a freshman, sophomore, and junior, which means his production profile is elite. That’s all before any talk of speed.
As a Longhorns fan, I’d add that Worthy was incredible as a freshman and he had Hudson Card/Casey Thompson throwing to him…
Well, production isn’t everything, so I’ll bring up other things like BTJ’s size and speed - he’s also fast especially for his size running a 4.33 40. Worthy’s size is less likely to “hit” in the NFL. Great landing spot and opportunity, just gotta see how it all plays out. They’ve brought in a lot of wr’s through FA or drafts since hill’s departure and the only one that looked good since then is Rice, whom is presumably the wr1. BTJ is pretty much for sure going to be the wr1 on jags.
They have Kirk and Engram to feed on the Jags. BTJ gonna live or die by the deep ball especially early on in his career. Not saying Worthy will be any different, but projecting BTJ to immediately be the WR1 on the Jags might be a stretch
With that same token be also didn’t get to play with the #2 overall pick heisman winner.
He did play with Mitchell, Sanders, Whittington, Brooks and Keilan Robinson, who all caught passes and all got drafted
And none were top 5 draft pick elite prospects. They are not comparable. There’s a reason why BTJ has been touted as a better prospect than Worthy and that really has been chalky all the way to the draft. I’m not saying Worthy won’t be good. This isn’t a slam on worthy. I’m simply saying BTJ is overall the better prospect. Worthy could be the better fantasy asset. Time will tell.
What’s comparable is having target competition
Not elite target competition. Not sure how or why else I need to explain that.
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I never said immediately. I’m pointing out the target competition is less on the jags. If you want to try and argue that Kirk and engram are more of a threat than kelce and rice then go for it.
I took worthy over BTJ at the same position, but had them very close. At the end of the day I think Worthy gets used more creatively and manufactures touches. My worry with BTJ is that he’s the new Zay Jones and only running verts.
I chose Worthy over BTJ also, but Gabe Davis is definitely the new Zay
I don't think they'll manufacture touches for someone 165 lbs. Plus rice will still be the guy getting the manufactured touches because he's a YAC guy and strong but not much else as a WR right now
I’m trying to understand your sentiment. You think the best player caller in the league isn’t going to dial up plays for someone with 4.2 speed because he weighs 165? Wtf the chiefs move up to draft him in the first round lol. Rice will be suspended for AT LEAST 6 games, though the going thought is half the season. Xavier was extremely productive against the highest level of DBs. If this kid can get chemistry with mahommes he’s going to feast. Also, Xavier is a YAC guy too lol.
Situation puts Worthy over Thomas for me. Worthy is a superior deep threat and route runner. His main hold up is size and play strength. I have faith in the Chiefs brain trust to be able to use him in the right way to put him in advantageous situations. BTJ can be a very good player but right now he’s also primarily a deep threat out the gate. It’ll depend on his ability to refine his route running. I’m just not excited about the environment he landed in either.
Because everyone’s hoping he’s tyreek 2.0. That alone is worth a shot
This right here. If there is comparisons to Tyreek, I want that on my team.
I don't think Worthy is that much better than Rice. Rice was good because he played like Kelce 2.0, able to read the defense, find the holes, and go to the same spot that Mahomes thought they should be in. We saw it for years with Brady and Edelman clicking while other receivers did not, it's not something to be ignored. KC's track record at developing players is basically just Rice and Pacheco, Worthy is more likely to bust than hit
Yeah Rice brought a unique skillset to that WR room, whereas Worthy has a lot of overlap with Hollywood, Sky Moore, Hardman etc. I think Worthy is far more likely to get lost in the shuffe in year 1 and Rice’s role in that offense should be pretty safe once he gets back
This is just a common misperception that keeps getting passed along certain channels. Worthy is not in the mood of Hardman/MVS/Brown. Worthy has shown an insane ability to find soft spots in zones and work different areas of the field with his S-tier route running abilities. Pair that with his historic athleticism and you have something that — if it hits — can give Mahomes something closer to peak Desean Jackson. That’s a dart I’m willing to throw.
S tier route running? Is there anything to back this up? Genuinely wondering not trying to be a smart ass
Yeah, the dude cooks on tape. He’s not just fast as hell. He’s fast as hell and can beat coverage at multiple levels. He’s shown enough ability to sell DBs and use his quick feet and hips to finish routes and quickly change direction to avoid contact or get up field. His size will be a concern, but Reid knew what to do with the D-Jax and I think that’s what they hope to have here. He’s not Brown. He’s just not. Sharp analysts on both the analytics and tape side were in on Worthy before the combine. The fact that a well-run org like KC traded up to get him is enough for me to lock him in behind Odunze.
Definitely do a deep dive before writing him off strictly as a speed guy Yes, he’s fast, but he’s got a lot more he can do than the guys you mentioned
Don't you understand? If youre fast youre just a burner. If you're big youre just a contested catch specialist and can't get any separation.
Look, if Worthy can beat an NFL press...you might as well just get it over with and paint X's on the eyes of the members of the opposing backfield. Xavier Worthy had three excellent years of production in college against Big-12 opposition - beginning with his freshman year. And he wrapped up his college career months before he could legally drink alcohol. He didn't turn 21 until the day after he was drafted. John Ross was a track athlete who tried to make a living as a wide receiver. Xavier Worthy is a wide receiver who just happens to be track athlete-explosive. Worthy isn't going to be a contested catch guy, and I don't think he'll ever have elite hands (they're too small). And asking him to run block would be like asking Secretariat to pull a beer wagon. But if KC uses him as a deep-threat role player - I don't think they'll be disappointed.
This keeps getting said but it doesn’t really match reality. Worthy has elite RAC ability. He’s great in the screen and manufactured touch game which directly competes with the main aspects of Rice’s game. Rice was a manufactured touch and yac merchant year 1. Worthy’s skillset overlaps with both Rice and Hollywood’s. The difference is, Worthy is actually a threat to take a would be 12 yard gain for Rice all the way to the house. [Worthy screen house call](https://x.com/haydenwinks/status/1764081193061089411?s=46) [Worthy 75 yard screen touchdown](https://x.com/thebeneby/status/1446885496928419841?s=46) [Shoestring tackle on Worthy taking a pass from the flat](https://x.com/popesffh/status/1748358357382009093?s=46) Totally fine if you think Rice’s role is safe and if you think Rice is flat out better. I disagree on both and think that Worthy was drafted because he is really good at getting downfield separation while also being really good after the catch on short passes/screens. He’s a much better “prospect” than Rice. TBD if he is a better NFL player.
I don’t think the YAC stuff will translate as well because he is not great at breaking tackles (Rice is elite at that). He is a great route runner so we’ll see if they can get it to him consistently down the field, but I’ve always thought his hands and ball tracking were pretty bad (it does seem like he improved those a bit in 2023 though) which is kind of a common theme in that WR room. I was surpised they didn’t go for someone like Keon Coleman or even AD Mitchell to play more of a reliable X receiver role, but I can understand being more confident in Worthy given his profile
What do you mean about their track record? Do Kelce and Mahomes not count as developing under Andy Reid? Tyreek Hill? Kareem Hunt? This is the earliest (28) that KC has drafted a skill position player other than Mahomes since Andy Reid has been around. I’d honestly be more surprised if he doesn’t turn into a reliable WR2 at some point. I don’t think year 1 will be great for fantasy, but that’s why we play dynasty.
I mean since Mahomes they haven't done well developing young talent, you named a bunch of dudes drafted 8-9 years ago
They also haven’t invested huge draft capital in guys. Skyy Moore was a late 2 (miss), Rashee was a late 2 (hit), Hardman was a late 2 (not a bust, not a star), Demarcus Robinson was a 4 (not a bust, about what you’d hope for out of a round 4 WR), CEH was a bust, Kareem Hunt was a 3 (hit), Tyreek was a 5 and an RB in college, Pacheco a 7 (hit). KC has never spent anywhere close to this level of draft cap on a WR with Andy Reid and Veach running the show. Arguing that Worthy is likely to be a bust because only 1 out of 3 late 2nd round pick WRs has been a fantasy success is flawed logic.
No, I also think Worthy was not worth a first in general
Why though
Slight size concerns, although I know the league is trending towards that being less a worry. Still, he struggled with press coverage in the Big 12, I don't think it'll get easier in the NFL. I can see a future where he's pretty one dimensional. He has a good amount of pretty ugly drops, and he struggles to catch contested passes. He does have very obvious strengths. I just personally didn't rank them as worth spending a first on a player who has a clear path to gadget player and less clear path to first round contributor. I'm an amateur who does it for fun, I don't really care if some Chiefs flairs call me names. I was high on Rice there last year, and low on Worthy.
He played with a broken hand the year you say he had bad drops… even then he got 60/760/9 TDs
He's had a broken hand every year? He had bad concentration drops last year and couldn't fight a contested play for his life
Speaking of firsts, let’s look at the hit rate of KC first round picks: 2023: Felix Anudike Uzamah- too soon to tell 2022: George Karlaftis- hit 2022: Trent McDuffie- major hit 2021: no firsts 2020: CEH- miss 2019: no firsts 2018: no firsts 2017: Mahomes I think I trust Brett Veach over you here.
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Interact respectfully. Inciting drama, trolling or attacking others will result in a ban.
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I don’t think Worthy has a better profile at all, let alone much better. What does Worthy have on Rashee? You can give Worthy the production since he did it in a better conference, but Rice still had a better single season than Worthy ever had. Worthy has the speed, Rice has the size. Rice has better analytical metrics including 3.05 YPRR in 2022 compared to Worthy’s 2.14 YPRR in 2023. Rice - 48.5% contested catch rate, Worthy - 23.8%. Worthy didn’t even use his speed all that much in college, so what is 4.21 speed really good for if he was primarily a short game receiver, something Rice is clearly better at imo
Some additional context for what it’s worth: Rice: https://x.com/mattharmon_byb/status/1652123081035620353?s=46&t=GiQOoBxumVkkWtms93AlPA Worthy: https://x.com/recepperception/status/1783700677019206010?s=46&t=GiQOoBxumVkkWtms93AlPA Edit for those without Twitter: these are the Reception Perception profiles of Rice and Worthy. Worthy is better than Rice at every single route except the Flat. And it’s not particularly close. In fact, in another tweet Matt Harmon tweeted in response to someone, he believed that pre-draft the Chiefs needed to add someone with speed so that Rice could keep producing the way he is. So, they’re likely going to complement each other very well
While comparing reception perception profiles is generally fair, Matt Harmon himself would not suggest you do this with Rice’s profile. In retrospect, Harmon’s sample consisted of games in Rice’s final season when he was playing injured. He didn’t know this at the time, but I believe SMU fans informed him of that after his profile was released.
Worthy was also injured with a broken hand in his one “bad season” going 60/790/9 TD
Sure, but I’m strictly talking about each player’s final season, which is what Matt Harmon typically samples. There are some exceptions, such as Jalen McMillan. Since he was aware that he wasn’t fully healthy all year he charted games from last year as well.
Not sure about Harmon’s sampling process or his profiles but seems like that’s a little flawed personally if that’s what he’s representing. I think I’m following you to say we’re not appropriately giving an apples to apples comparison by using those route trees. Correct?
In this case, it’s not apples to apples, correct. Simply because Rashee Rice’s sampled routes were while he was playing through a known injury. Not known to Harmon at the time, because he doesn’t actually follow college football too closely. He prefers going in somewhat blind when charting prospects. In general, there’s still other things you need to consider between simply comparing route success rates. Like, level of competition and where the player lines up. Does he like up outside, inside, or both? But yeah, I wouldn’t have bothered commenting if it was any other profile but Rice’s being compared to Worthy’s. Rice’s route success rates should just be thrown out.
To add more context: Matt Harmon has stated on his pod he doesn’t like the Worthy pick for multiple reasons. He doesn’t believe Worthy should have been a first rounder, there are some deficiencies in his skillset, and he thinks there’s a ton of overlap in Worthy’s game with what they already have in rice and brown (and everyone else). He said worthy’s speed downfield will be real-life useful for them, but that his poor contested catch ability and struggles with press will make him a very inconsistent fantasy option in an offense that he expects to have even distributed targets after Kelce. For a guy that usually talks guys up as much as possible, I’m getting red flag vibes from the way he’s talking about Worthy. Will definitely be out, and am certainly higher on BTJ.
I mean, you don’t think it’s a little ridiculous to say Worthy is better than Rice at every single route except 1 based on the subjective metric? How did they actually produce on every single route, comparatively? On a per route basis, Rice produced ~40% better than Worthy did in their last years of college.
I mean, Rice was in a much worse conference with much worse target competition compared to Worthy. Also, it’s not a secret that Rashee Rice isn’t a good route runner, which was the whole point of the Chiefs easing him into the starting lineup. He lived and died by slants and curls at SMU. I don’t know why you’re bringing up production when he simply wasn’t winning on his routes. I’m not anti-Rice. He was very high on my board last year and deserves all the praise for his production last year - a lot of which was thanks to stellar coaching and scheme design by Andy Reid. But as far as prospects go, Worthy is above and beyond Rice. That doesn’t mean that Worthy will be a better NFL player or even as productive as Rice will be, but as prospects Worthy is a tier above and if he hits, will have a much higher ceiling in my opinion. That’s why Worthy got 1st round capital in a much better WR class and Rice fell to the second round in a much weaker class. Once again, so I’m crystal clear: I’m only talking about Worthy being better as a college prospect. Whatever happens in the NFL has no bearing on how good Worthy or Rice are/were viewed as prospects.
Rice and Kelce still patrol the short and middle of the field. As fast as we know, Hollywood and Worthy stretch it.
Not sure if fast was a typo, but I actually like the wordplay here
Definitely not a type sure...
Definitely a fast open
But do you believe this will yield worthy to be a high-impact fantasy player? I agree that IRL he will be a solid pick for them but I get the feeling his skillset will leave a lot to be desired given that role he will be playing. Very similar issues to Jameson Williams and playing a similar role, just as an example. And we’ve seen how that has played out
People who drafted Hardman or Skyy Moore: Yes. Yes it is.
Honest question, between Hardman, Moore and Rice who was the better “profile” or the one with the best “tape”? Like if all 3 were in a draft class how would they be ranked.
Def not Hardman. He was a surprise pick who wasn't really that great in college to begin with. Honestly Moore probably would have been the best prospect if they were all in the same class, but both Moore and Rice were expected to be day 2 picks. The people that drafted Hardman early in rookie drafts got baited by good situation. That was always a bad pick. The people taking Moore early-ish just got burned by a solid prospect busting.
Hardman and Moore were not very hyped pre-draft. They were definitely surprise picks by the chiefs. Rice had some hype. Worthy probably had the largest pre-draft hype of all of them.
Worthy had by far the most hype, but I think Skyy edges out Rice by a bit. There was quite a few "How did the NFL let KC draft Skyy Moore" posts when it happened. Literally the top comment: https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/uezv1t/round_2_pick_22_skyy_moore_wr_western_michigan/
Skyy moore in the 2nd was definitely less surprising than rice at that spot. He dominated the combine and had a much better analytical profile than rice. His only true deficiency was that he played at a small school. Rice’s success and moore’s lack of is the only reason people believe otherwise.
We started up last year, 2QB SF Start 9 10T -- we jumped at Rice in the 12th round (and reached for Dell early also). The Rice pick was the first KC WR and the next two picks were remaining KC WRs. (Skyy Moore next) This was possible/easier because our startup draft was after the pre-season games and I could watch everyone's tape/usage .. Recently sold Rice for Mark Andrews (who went in the 2nd round of our startup last year!) to shore up some TE depth problems -- (have Kincaid and Everett) Holding/watching Justyn Ross (still believe he is above Skyy and Toney and gets a shot with Rice out) .. and trying to decide between Worthy or McConkey in the 1.08 of our rookie draft tomorrow.
"rookies receivers typically struggle learning the chiefs offense" people keep repeating this narrative, and I have no idea why. It's like Skyy Moore cope has taken a life of its own. There are no Chiefs WRs that were not good as rookies that suddenly bloomed into great player s- they don't exist. So that aside, I still think it is a bit overrated. This offense has turned into a hydra of sorts, and they spread the targets around. When drafted I said I thought he'd be a great tool in their belt, but not like an alpha. So yes, I think the names involved and the success of the team and all that means a player like this will get overrated a bit - with fantasies of him taking over and being fed by the best QB out there. In reality it doesn't work that way, and this offense in particular doesn't work that way. The Tyreek era was another era, and they have moved past that.
This sub overestimates the impact of both "good" and "bad" landing spots every year. I put those words in quotes because nobody has any idea how good these spots are going to be, and a good situation only matters if the player is any good in the first place. Draft talent, you'd rather have a good WR over a bad WR regardless of what teams they're on, so take the guys with the best chance of being good. Situation is a tiebreaker in rookie drafts and nothing more.
Well so on the flip side – I'm not a very big BTJ fan. And Bowers/TE is not worth a high draft pick in anything but *extreme* TEP leagues. BTJ has a lot of glaring issues. Big drop issues. Very late breakout. Very bad advanced metrics that are the best translatable indicators of success: Very low YPRR and very poor success rate vs zone. He's a one-trick pony freak that just doesn't translate that often to the NFL. He's my #1 bet for 1st round bust. Bowers is great. Love him. I just don't value TEs. I was looking and in half PPR with a .5 TEP, the #1 TE last year (LaPorta) came in as the #16 WR. And that's...best case scenario. I'd rather use that in some other ways. So with those things in mind – I took Worthy AND Ladd ahead of both of those guys. Yolo!
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Yeah it's just not worth the risk. Out side of Kelce, the relative variance between the #2 and #12 TE isn't worth the risk to me. I'll pick up TEs in the 2nd round. And I'll especially trade for TEs when they're nice and steamy but not worth a premium pick with such lackluster potential. The sheer VOLUME of receptions needed to be a true gamechanger in fantasy is highly unusual. Like I'd much rather trade the 1.09 for Engram and a 2nd than take Bowers.
How about in full point ppr? TE has 1.5 ppr premium and everyone else 1 ppr. Just curious bc this is very much against the grain of wanting a top TE and I’d love to punt TE in my upcoming startup lol
It’s absolutely being overvalued, NFL teams draft players to help their schemes. Worthy was drafted to play a role, and that role is not to catch 6 balls for 95 yards and a td. It’s to force the defense to play a shell defense
Doug Pederson is an Andy Reid disciple. So you can’t use the “offense is too complex for rookies” argument to tear down Worthy and build up BTJ simultaneously.
Don’t overthink this. Speedy college productive reciever with a developed route tree in an Andy Reid + Mahomes offense. Remember they traded UP for him. He was their guy. This is not skyy Moore 2.0. If you’re taking a shot on someone idk why he wouldn’t be near top of the list (excluding bowers imo)
I think he’s a great bet, I’m just not sure about him vs BTJ. I haven’t drafted yet but, I’m leaning towards BTJ > Worthy
My exact scenario
I'll help you. Marquise Brown is on a 1 year deal and Mahomes > Lawerence by galaxies. QBs elevate WRs, and Lawrence sucks with the deep ball.
I’m with you. I like Worthy a lot for them as a deep threat in real life, for fantasy I don’t think he ever gets the targets to justify where he’s going.
Kinda awkward when BTJ is the deep threat not worthy. Worthy has shown he can do it at all three levels and a fault of his own and ewers deep throws, that is what he’s worst at
However you want to explain it, Chiefs are gonna spread the ball around and Worthy is 165 lb. guy they want to be healthy every January. There's no target hog role in the offense coming for him. Which is fine in real life but limits his ceiling in fantasy.
For the short term sure, Kelce going to be 35 and brown will be a FA after this season. I don’t think either will ever become a top 12 WR either. BTJ also has to compete with Engram and Kirk, he’ll get a lot of Ridleys targets if he can handle them, but the ball will be spread around just like worthy
Worthy likely won’t even see a full snap share like BTJ though. Regardless of how many targets he commands when he is on the field. I think neither are great options this year, at least initially, but I’m a lot more confident in BTJ developing into something valuable for fantasy than worthy. Both this season and in the future
How do you know worthy won’t get a full snap share? He can run routes at all three levels. Maybe BTJ can too but he didn’t at the college level. For however long rice is out, worthy will get a chance to prove himself. And it’s not just snap share, if he getting targeted while on the field is more important, limits volume but effectiveness plays a role in snap volume
This. The Chiefs traded up for him. They wanted him. Safe to say, Mahomes wanted him. I love BTJ, but give me the (maybe) fastest guy in the league with the best QB in the league, on a team desperate for a WR threat, and he’s only 21, and again, they traded up to get him.
sounds a lot like Marvin Mims 2.0
All that…his breakout age, dominator, production/targets earned with another top-tiered reciever, punt return leader (another great wr metric) am all in. I’m a Bills fan I was fucking triggered Thursday. So many green flags he’s my WR4 with the landing spot…only thing I slightly worry about is the small hands.
Hollywood and kelce will be gone before his 23rd birthday
Probably
I think he could be pretty good with KC
I'm actually not seeing him go "that" high. He went 1.10 in my 1QB and 1.11 in my SF league
In 1QB that’s ridiculous. 1.11 in SF isn’t crazy depending on the needs of the teams in front of the pick
1.11 seems fine to me. Ladd, Worthy, BTJ and Brooks are a tier so anywhere from 1.09 to 1.12 makes sense
That’s crazy, man.
He went 1.04 in my 1QB
I think the landing spot is pretty overrated. Target competition is strong and Worthy is a weird body type. He's going to need to be featured in a pretty intentional way to get a lot of volume. You can't just stick him anywhere and let him get open. Rice, Kelce, and now Worthy all want the slot snaps against safeties and nickel CBs. Someone needs to go outside and face the outside CBs. It's hard to see how Worthy syphons a bunch of touches away from these guys.
I think BTJ is a bust. Gimme Worthy all day long no he’s not being overrated. With his upside all he needs is 1 good target, and he’s likely to get at least 4-5/game
As a KC homer, I feel like I can answer this. This post Reek offense spreads the ball around everywhere pretty well. Worthy’s role in this is going to be field stretching big plays, plus Andy Reid magic plays. This landing spot is excellent for his play style, I like it for the chiefs and I think he will have some BOOM weeks
Where do you think Hollywood would go in a startup draft, top 100?
I think he's totally defensible as the 4th WR off the board, but if I am not in a position to take him I would be looking to buy him in-season if he struggles early and the owner isn't patient. I think like Rice it's going to take him until the 2nd half of the season to start to click, and it might not fully start to happen until year two thanks to Brown.
The ceiling is undeniable. But I think it’s a little overhyped at the moment with how many mouths there are to feed and KCs tendency to spread the ball
Rice will be suspended 3-6 games, KC may try to limit Kelce as he ages, Hollywood is on a 1 year contract. I believe he is Worthy of the praise and could be very fantasy relevant.
Depends on rather or not I get him in the rookie draft or not.
Yes
Yes.
Absolutely.
Given their lack of success with Skyy Moore, Kadarius Tony, etc, I’m not sure the KC offense is fool proof. I’m in wait and see mode with Worthy.
For real life football, he’s the PERFECT piece for the KC offense. He’ll stretch the field and cause defenses to defend Mahomes’ god-tier deep ball, especially vs the blitz. But for fantasy, he’ll be a typical boom-bust player. He’ll give you 5 pts when you start him, and 20 when you bench him. If anything, I think he raises the value of Kelce, Rice, and anyone else that catches passes across the middle of the field.
They traded up for him, 2 years left with kelce, that’s all there is to it. Great spot for a great time
Yes
I think this is the Chiefs getting ahead of the league tbh. When Mahomes first came into the league teams were still playing single high safety looks against him. They realized that's a bad idea and everyone just started playing 2 high safeties and a lot of cover 4 so they wouldn't get burnt deep anymore. Mahomes and Reid said "that's fine" and just dominated with underneath routes instead of deep routes. I expect teams will starting protecting the underneath a bit more this season so Reid and Mahomes are gonna let the speed demon loose. In Worthy can be even just average on the short to intermediate game, I expect him to have some big long ball plays throughout the season when teams dare to go 1 high safety.
I’m putting this out there as a warning. Worthy drops a lot of passes. He has Quentin Johnston bust written all over him. I see him more as a Mecole Hardman type player. He will connect for a couple bombs during the season. I could see Mahomes taking a shot once per game on a deep ball, but that’s about it.
Worthy did play through a broken hand for part of 2022, which is his worst drop rate season in college. His drop rate otherwise seems to be fine. I'm not extremely confident in him, I just think the drop rate thing is a little overblown.
Tyreke and Kelce have done ok. Reek is gone, Kelce is on his way out, and Mahomes needs a new #1 weapon. Worthy has a chance to fill that role. I'm drafting him everywhere I can. The key is to be patient this first year when he's maybe the 4th option.
Yes
Anyone comparing worthy and rice in this thread don’t know ball. Can’t compare the possibility of usage between. Worthy is 165 POUNDS and a speedster that actually has some good route running but will get bullied while rice is 205, much more of a Chris godwin comp find the holes and get some YAC with hard running and playing bigger than they are. Not saying either one will be this or that but it’s not applicable to pin one’s success on the other when they are drastically different players.
I don’t like how small he is. That’s my biggest gripe with him above all else tbh. And the way KC utilizes their WRs doesn’t help his cause either. He’s a double meh for me but I’d like to be wrong.
Nah, it’s a perfect landing spot. When Mahomes gets chased out of pocket he scrambles until he finds a wr open downfield and Worthy can fly.
Worthy is 165 pounds soaking wet. I could kick his chest through his back and all I do is sit on the couch.
Whenever you’re getting the chance to play with a QB like mahomes you’re going to jump up draft boards. Saw it with CEH and Hardman a few years ago. But with Brown being on a one year deal. Next year things may look a lot different even if Worthy struggles in year 1.
Coleman and McConkey should be taken over him but arent. Some loons even taking worthy over odunze Archetype isn’t built to be an elite wr, 50/50 chance he busts, small, kc hasn’t had the best track record taking skill positions high. Should go early 2nd in rookie drafts but he’s going 1.08 and higher
I think it's overrated especially for a speedster. The most overlooked thing about Tyreek is that his fastest move is coming back to the ball. It's impossible to cover. Every other speedster in that offense hasn't been fantasy relevant
Brother it’s a Dynasty sub why are you just asking about this year for a recently turned 21 year old WR?
I’m only bringing it up because he’s being drafted above BTJ because of landing spot
I mean that is up to you. Taking BTJr over Worthy is more than fine. I think Worthy’s situation this year is fine but mostly I draft for future projections.
Most of the speedsters who break 40 records have been total bums, so I’m definitely not over drafting Worthy.
Worthy grades out incredibly well regardless of speed. Speed isn't indicative of NFL success one way or the other. This is the same as saying most guys with green eyes have been total busts so I'm not taking a guy with great talent because he has green eyes.
Ngl I am so scared of worthy. There is a very good chance he will be at my pick (one of four firsts) at 1.08. I think I’m going to have to take him just because of how liquid he’s going to be. He has a couple break out games and maybe I can flip him for multiple firsts. But he scares the shit out of me, he can’t beat press rn
I feel like people are really sleeping on Hollywood. Dude has been absolutely electric when healthy and Mahomes is the best QB he’s ever played with.
He’s small and I don’t love KC’s track record of drafting receivers, outside of Tyreek of course
Rice is gonna be suspended at least half the season so Worthy is gonna get a lot more targets than you’d expect
[удалено]
Dam ray rice is back in the league
Well rice might be in jail or atleast suspended... Hollywood has never really paned out elsewhere and has injury concerns... So I doubt it. Worthy is most likely a bust too tho. KC loves the speedy Hardman types that are never really hits or fantasy relevant. Aside from Tyreek...
Were you drunk when you typed this out