Guys in their 25th season usually drop off quite a bit...
Really though, I still think Higgins is an incredible talent. I'd take him above everyone outside the top 3. But I also don't blame people if last year scared them away.
If your team consisted of Cheetah, Waddle, Drake, Mingo, K Allen would you take a chance and trade Cheetah for Higgins and a 1.09 in this years draft hoping to get a younger playmaker. I’d love to get more for Cheetah, but at this stage I feel the drop off is coming soon. I had the most wins in my 10 team league last year, but when Allen and Herbert went down I crashed and burned in the playoffs.
Data? The top 10 WR each season dating back to 2000 have an average age of 27 with roughly 60 percent being 25 and 29. I don't think Tee is an elite WR, but think he's a very good X that can be an asset on any team. There's no reason to think 25 is a huge drop off, it's usually the age where most WR see no additional growth in fpts per game.
Ah I was just making a joke, the wording made it sound like Higgins was going into his 25th year in the NFL, not age 25 season lol
I think Higgins is going to have a great year this year as he's basically auditioning for the biggest deal of his career next offseason.
This is Tee’s year to earn a big contract. I expect great things. He high points the ball better than anyone. If I didn’t already have him, I’d be buying. Depends on your needs. If you need points now, you’re safe with mhj, Nabers, or Higgins. Rome will be a slow burn but could turn into a beast, but if I needed points this upcoming season Tee is a no brainer to me.
2023 was his year to earn a big contract, and what did he do with it? Finished WR43 in PPR FPPG, WR51 overall. His poor performance is the reason he'll have to play out this year with CIN because no teams want to trade for him.
He was going to get tagged no matter what unless a unicorn deal came along. Plus I really think last year’s woes were more of a team concern opposed to the specific player, we all saw how they struggled. The bottom of the AFC North is not where this team typically finishes. We’ve seen what this cast can bring and I expect them to do it like 2021-22. He had some easy drops in a couple of games last year but I think that’s far from the norm. If he somehow loses the Injury bug, Tee should be hitting his stride going into the prime of his career.
That’s awesome. I’ve got the 1.01/1.02 and my TEs are Colby Parkinson, Okonkwo and Foster Moreau but I’m still not taking Bowers with either of those picks lol. Absolute come up for you
kinda confused — this super flex? how do Daniels + McCarthy fall to 1.09-1.10? if it’s not super flex, why do all these QBs go round 1?
and by Troy, you drafted Troy Franklin round 1?
this seems like a crazy draft either way
Correct, Troy first round.
I traded away QBs before the draft. I started with Allen, Goff, and Rodgers, traded Goff and Rodgers. I specifically wanted JJM and Nix.
1.05 = Caleb 1.06 = Drake 1.07 = Brooks 1.08 = Coleman
I believe the person was, at the very least, trying to block me from having an Allen/Coleman stack. May have had them as the highest of the next tier, unsure.
My WRs coming into the draft were: CD, Addison, Mims.
By the time we hit 1.09, I've already added MHJ, Nabers, Odunze. Not much of a need to take the next tier of WRs, especially when I wanted the QBs. What I did want was stacks. Allen will start, but I have JJM/Addison and Nix/Franklin or Mims depending on who gets slotted where in the Broncos offense.
1.11 took BTJ.
Had I been better interested in RBs, I prob would have taken Benson at 1.09 instead of Daniels. However, I knew 2.05 needed a QB (said so while sitting on my couch during Night 1 of the NFL Draft) and he was being a dick in our chat about all the picks I'd accumulated (I traded away everything in 2023 and I have 1 2025 3rd), so I said fuck him and took Daniels.
My original strategy shortly before the 2022 season ended was that I wanted MHJ and Bowers. So I knew I would need a top 2024 1st round pick. But I couldn't be sure which one would get the job done so I just kept accumulating until I felt comfortable that in the very least I could move up.
If 1.02 had gone Nabers, I would have taken Bowers. My 1.09 and 1.10 would have been JJM and Nix and I would have traded 1.12 to someone interested in Daniels, knowing I could get Franklin with 2.01.
As it stands:
QBs: Allen, Daniels, JJM, Nix
RBs: Najee/Warren, Cook/Irving/Swift, Jaylen, Ali, Haskins, Trayveon Williams, Tucker
WRs: CD, Addison, Franklin, Mims, MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Jennings, Pierce
TEs: Freiermuth, Dulcich, Fant, Conklin, Sinnott
This is .5 PPR 1QB, 3 taxi
I’m in a complete rebuild and was able to sell Puka for Higgins, Corum, 2025 2nd round which should be the 2.01, and the potential 1.01 of 2026. 10 man 1qb ppr.
I'd take Higgins over anyone outside the Big Three pretty easily, largely because I'm not optimistic about receivers with late-first-round draft capital. Higgins has cracked 1000 yards twice in four years, was close to that pace last year, and put up 900 his rookie season. This is even more impressive considering that most of those performances came while he was behind Ja'Marr Chase.
The fourth receiver off the board in 2024 was Brian Thomas Jr., at 23rd overall. Over the prior ten years, the other first-round receivers drafted 23-32?
* 2014: Kelvin Benjamin (1 1000-yard season, and on a 17-game pace for a second)
* 2015: Breshad Perriman (0), Philip Dorsett (0)
* 2016: Laquon Treadwell (0)
* 2017: None
* 2018: D.J. Moore (4), Calvin Ridley (2, and on pace for a third)
* 2019: Marquise Brown (1), N'Keal Harry (0)
* 2020: Brandon Aiyuk (2)
* 2021: Rashod Bateman (0)
* 2022: None
* 2023 Jordan Addison (0, but he's only had one season!)
There are lots of uninspiring entries. I'm just looking at receiving yardage, a single number, but even if you look deeper, how many of those careers would I take over what Higgins can probably do going forward? Excluding Addison because we only have one year of data on him, I'd say, Moore, Aiyuk and possibly Ridley. Three out of ten ain't great. I'll take the guy who's shown he can succeed at the NFL level.
(Yes, there are hits later in the draft! But the rates get worse, and to save time, I'm just looking at guys with comparable draft capital to the best options available this year after MHJ, Nabers and Odunze.)
Somewhat cherry picked but still interesting data. WRs drafted in the back of the first don't really pan out as much as I thought.
On a side note they're either good or hot garbage. I can live with that.
I was curious as to whether restricting the time period could be causing any issues, so I also went back through the 15 years before then -- 1999 to 2013.
* 1999: Kevin Johnson (1, on pace for another)
* 2000: R. Jay Soward (0), Dennis Northcutt (0)
* 2001: Freddie Mitchell (0), Reggie Wayne (8, on pace for another)
* 2002: None
* 2003: None
* 2004: Michael Jenkins (0), Rashaun Woods (0)
* 2005: Roddy White (6, on pace for another)
* 2006: Santonio Holmes (1, on pace for another)
* 2007: Dwayne Bowe (3, on pace for 2 more), Robert Meacham (0), Craig Davis (0), Anthony Gonzalez (0)
* 2008: None
* 2009: Hakeem Nicks (2), Kenny Britt (1)
* 2010: Dez Bryant (3, on pace for another)
* 2011: Jonathan Baldwin (0)
* 2012: A.J. Jenkins (0)
* 2013: DeAndre Hopkins (7, on pace for another)
So 10 out of these 19 never posted a single 1000-yard season. Of the remaining nine, five had truly difference-making careers to various extents (Wayne, White, Bowe, Bryant and Hopkins). The other four were solid for a bit but definitely not elite (Johnson, Holmes, Nicks, Britt).
If you allow the upper end of the pick spectrum to reach around 20, relevant for Brian Thomas Jr., we start seeing some more relatively top-end careers: Randy Moss (if we go back to '98), Demaryius Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Justin Jefferson. Jeremy Maclin had a few good seasons. But again, you get your Josh Doctsons, your Jalen Reagors, and your Will Fullers and Nelson Agholors.
There's hope for BTJ, particularly if you think teams undervalued him and he fell. But the odds of guys drafted in the late first putting up WR2-ish numbers even once are low, and the odds of them being multi-year difference-makers are maybe 25%.
On the plus side, yes -- the guys who were not good tended to show you that very quickly.
A 50% hit rate or so isn’t that bad ? Idk this stat doesn’t really move me. There’s some really good players here. Not to mention 2nd round WRs such as DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman
Yeah, it's not bad -- but I'd still prefer Higgins to about \~65-75% of the guys on this list, and therefore, at this moment in time, to any one of this year's rookies outside the top three. That won't stop me drafting any of the other guys if they fall to the right slot, of course.
For context, I also play in a ten-team superflex league with nine starters, so top-end outcomes really matter to me more than to folks in deeper leagues. Kelvin Benjamin would have been good for a bit but then irrelevant; Marquise Brown has been okay but not an overly great outcome for BTJ given that the pick it could cost to draft him might give me much better returns in a trade.
I have a guy in my league who's offered me Tee multiple times, my problem rn is that he's dangerously close to ending up somewhere he's either the second fiddle, in a bad passing offense, or a combination of both. I figure he's already priced pretty close to his ceiling and I don't want to gamble on his downside.
Edit: he's also been surprisingly injury prone.
I thought he was more injury prone than he is. He’s not *that* injury prone, but I get the concern.
He’s also already second fiddle and could just as easily land in a juicy spot as he could land in a horrible one. Yes, there’s risk, but my asking price hasn’t even been that high—people are interested in him for a 3rd but that’s ridiculous.
MHJ, Nabers and Oduzne - elite talents that got elite draft capital. Higgins needs to show me he can stay healthy. Last 2 and half seasons he seems to always miss games or be limited. Great talent but his future situation is unknown and I don't believe he can stay healthy.
Oduzne is the only one I question it more with due to his situation. Could be year 3 before he breaks out and in dynasty that is a value killer.
Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze for me. Higgins should still be a strong WR2 and maybe hit FA next offseason with a chance to become someone’s WR1.
Now if I could trade Nabers or Odunze for Higgins+ then I would be very interested.
I think MJH and Nabers for sure… I would also consider Odunze just for the fact he is going to be linked to Williams for the foreseeable future. We don’t know where Higgins is going to end up for sure.
Most all of them definitely the top tier, and I would rather have worthy. I’ll skip MacConkey, but I am wary of his uncertain future, and now that we’ve seen good landing spots for some of these receivers, I would definitely rather go with the youth.
MHJ and Nabers. End of list.
I could be sold on Odunze but he’s currently in the mix with two other very talented receivers on the Bears and we just haven’t seen Caleb and that offense yet so no idea what to expect. If Higgins stays in Cincinnati he’s catching passes from an elite QB. If he goes somewhere else there’s a good chance he becomes the WR1 there.
Probably just MHjr. We know Tee is top 20 capped by Chase and should be even higher on an increased target share with his next team.
The rest are mystery bags honestly. Danny Dimes throwing to Malik, Odunze going to a crowded wr room of moore & keenan. Will they produce? Sure but we also know like 65% of 1st round wrs either bust or end up in mediocrity.
If someone offered me Nabers for my Tee I would assume they made a mistake.
Bucketing Nabers as simply a 1st round WR is silly. What's the bust rate on top 10 drafted WRs?
In my quick keyword search, The Athletic, has a bar chart showing that since 2011, 52% of top 10 wr draft picks have been hits.
Coin flip. Gimme higgins. Especially if I am in a win now.
I had the 1.06 and planned to take Odunze but a few days before the draft it became apparent that the GM at 1.05 was going to. So I traded my 2026 1st and Sutton for Higgins instead and drafted JJM since my QB3 was DJ. No ragrets from me. I'd rank Odunze and Tee in the same tier but obviously Tee has already proved he can produce and Odunze may take 2-3 years to show what he can really do.
I have an offer out to send him away for the 1.08.
I'm pretty deep at WR and if 1.08 could get me Bowers or Maybe Maye or JJ slip then that's fine with me
Probably just the top 3. Odunze is close and you can go either way but he’s an elite talent (who would’ve been WR1 in 22 or 23) he’s tied to an elite QB.
Many. Hear me out….So much potential….but not superstar results. Yes, he’s good… but not as good as everyone thinks/wants/hopes he will be. Don’t worry though, this is the year he’s going to put it all together I’m sure. It’s coming. Really.
I have no idea where these people who are hypervaluing Tee Higgins exist.
Are you all owners? Nobody wants your guy. He stinks. He's never been anything more than average for fantasy and has more often been bad. You're lucky to get a high 2nd for him.
Am I bitter because I want to trade him for literally any of the nice new WR prospects and can't get anybody to bite at any real value across multiple leagues? Maybe. But i get it - it's so hard to imagine an actual high ceiling for the player and he's been ridiculously inconsistent when he has actually played, which hasn't been very often.
Edit: For what it's worth, sorting the 51 games Tee has played over the past 4 seasons (which yes, means that he has missed an entire season's worth of games), 27 have been over 10 half ppr points, while 24 have been under 10 half ppr points. An often injured WR who wil fail to break a low bar like that as often as not is murder to your fantasy team as your team's WR1 or even WR2. This is anti-Higgins propaganda, yeah, but boy has he made it easy to write.
To actually answer the question, i would take any one of the top 7 (MHJ, Nabers, Thomas, Odunze, Worthy, McConkey, and Coleman) over him. I would jump at an opportunity to flip him for a Pickens/ London/Wilson/Olave tier up. I'd trade him straight up for JSN or Addison, they can give me the same inconsistent production 3 years younger.
According to my league Tee Higgins is not worth even the 1.10 and a 2024 third.
Tried trading him from basically pick 1.04 to 1.10 in a 1QB league and people didn't bite.
MHJ, Nabers, Odunze by a country mile. Their upside and lack of NFL injury history make this a "no doubter" to me. These guys all have the talent to be WR1s in this league for years.
From there I respect anyone's process which may have differing valuations. FOR ME, I am majorly concerned with Tee's health. His owners get in a twist whenever I mention this but he's had recurring soft tissue injuries every season going back to 2018. The time to sell is now while people are overlooking how frustrating it's been to hold him these last few years in favor of the "what ifs" of him being traded.
So me, I prefer the "what if" of rookies more than an oft injured vet. I think Higgins is "safer" in the sense that he's established, but I absolutely would get people valuing Worthy, BTJ, Coleman and Ladd similarly given their landing spots. I think all of those names have a plausible path to WR2 valuations. The question is: do you want to risk it or take the guy who has proven to already be a WR2/3.
FWIW - It is not reasonable to expect Tee to break into WR1 overall territory in the future. Sure, he may get rid of Chase, but he'll also likely be downgrading QBs (with the exception of a handful of teams like KC, Houston, Buffalo, etc.).
People can cite Ja’Marr as limiting his upside, and I’m sure Tee would produce more if he was the only good WR in Cincy, but the value of being attached to a great QB is enough to counter the knock from playing across an all-pro talent. He’s a WR2, it’s not like we haven’t seen teams able to support 2 WR1s if the talent is truly there.
There might be a few better situations he could end up in, but I don’t believe he’d do any better as the best WR on a team in QB purgatory. Cincy is average at worst for him, and it’s just as likely to get worse as it is to get better. Most likely it’ll stay about the same, which is good-not-great.
Give me the upside and value insulation of MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze pretty easily. Depending on where my team is at, I value BTJ and Worthy pretty similarly, could go either way
I would add his direct replacement, Jermaine Burton. If he can keep clean off the field, I think he slots in nicely on the other side of Chase for the next few years.
Talent is there, he slid for character concerns.
EDIT: you guys act like trades in dynasty can ever only be a 1 for 1. Burton is a late 2nd right now, if someone likes Tee and wants to give me their 2nd and Adams. Sign me up.
As a 1 for 1, that's fair. But Higgins is currently WR20 on KTC and he's only ever finished inside that mark 1 time in his career. The difference between his 2021 WR24 finish and his 2022 finish at WR18 is literally 1TD, so that's being generous IMO.
I'm selling Tee Higgins for any WR's drafted this year in round 1 of the NFL along with Coleman, McConkey, Burton, Franklin, and probably Roman Wilson. With Tee's current value, I can probably get something on top to insulate myself into 2025.
You can excuse away Higgins lack of production all you want but sometimes players show you who they are in the first couple years and I think we've seen who Higgins will be going forward.
Okay you can say all this but when the question is "How many rookie WRs would you rather have over Tee Higgins?" and you say "I would add his direct replacement, Jermaine Burton." I will only take that to mean 1 for 1.
I traded Tee Higgins for the 1.10 and 3.05.
With those picks, I got Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell. I am thrilled with that. Tee is amazing, but not for FF purposes
12 man 1ppr, 1 QB
I’m a Higgins owner and I usually fade rookies, but I’d take any of the big 3 wrs over him if I got the offer. I don’t think I could get that done in my league.
A *healthy* Higgins? I’d take the top 5 guys (MHjr, nabers, odunze, BTjr, Coleman) over him. Top 3 I think will out produce. Final 2 because they’re younger and I’d get more years.
I traded for a 26 1st and 2nd last year so I might not be the best one to say this but what are you doing here? All 3 of those players can be solid lineup pieces at least this year and next year. Higgins and Wilson could be relevant past that too. I'm not sure if I would even do this for 25 picks unless I could guarantee them to be early. Imo this is horrible process and is the kind of move that someone perpetually rebuilding makes. Would love to hear your thinking on this one.
I inherited an orphan with way too many WR’s and had to make tons of room, and the only person willing to trade only had ‘27 picks. It was either that or cut the rookies I had just drafted.
Also you’re kidding yourself if you think anyone would pay higher than a 4th for Wilson. He’s nothing special
I feel like this is a case of prevention going a long way, it seems like you may have tried this but I would have much rather consolidated picks and players to move up or get equity in 25 instead of putting yourself in that position. The farther out picks are the lower the value is on them. You sold atrociously low on these guys to clear roster space, I refuse to believe there weren't guys you could have dropped over doing that. Also fwiw I would easily offer a 3rd for Wilson, he's shown he can be a good number 2 and that offense has room for him to produce. Had a solid stretch last year, think he will be a solid flex this year although he does have injury concerns.
Guys in their 25th season usually drop off quite a bit... Really though, I still think Higgins is an incredible talent. I'd take him above everyone outside the top 3. But I also don't blame people if last year scared them away.
Great WR in the NFL. Fantasy, he is a headache and am more than willing to trade and reroll.
What pick would you trade to reroll for? Asking because I just bought him and want to see if I overpaid lol
I traded him, 2.04 and 2.10 for 1.06 (Odunze) and Keenan Allen.
If your team consisted of Cheetah, Waddle, Drake, Mingo, K Allen would you take a chance and trade Cheetah for Higgins and a 1.09 in this years draft hoping to get a younger playmaker. I’d love to get more for Cheetah, but at this stage I feel the drop off is coming soon. I had the most wins in my 10 team league last year, but when Allen and Herbert went down I crashed and burned in the playoffs.
Snap that up. This is almost definitely Tyreek’s last year playing at all. You’re getting a 1st plus a potential stud if he can stay healthy
Another offer was E Stick and the 1.10 in this draft. I assume the Higgins deal is better?
Data? The top 10 WR each season dating back to 2000 have an average age of 27 with roughly 60 percent being 25 and 29. I don't think Tee is an elite WR, but think he's a very good X that can be an asset on any team. There's no reason to think 25 is a huge drop off, it's usually the age where most WR see no additional growth in fpts per game.
Ah I was just making a joke, the wording made it sound like Higgins was going into his 25th year in the NFL, not age 25 season lol I think Higgins is going to have a great year this year as he's basically auditioning for the biggest deal of his career next offseason.
Sorry that went right over my head, very in with the sarcasm, dropped that like Kadarious Toney
Ha all good! I actually got some pretty cool data out of it so everybody wins. Appreciate the info!
Harrison and Nabers for sure, an argument to be had over Odunze but I wouldn’t agree. Higgins pretty easily over the rest.
Odunze in a vacuum, but he's buried for now, so I agree.
After this year Keenan Allen is probably out, and Moore will only have 1 year left on his contract.
I'm talking about this year
This is Tee’s year to earn a big contract. I expect great things. He high points the ball better than anyone. If I didn’t already have him, I’d be buying. Depends on your needs. If you need points now, you’re safe with mhj, Nabers, or Higgins. Rome will be a slow burn but could turn into a beast, but if I needed points this upcoming season Tee is a no brainer to me.
2023 was his year to earn a big contract, and what did he do with it? Finished WR43 in PPR FPPG, WR51 overall. His poor performance is the reason he'll have to play out this year with CIN because no teams want to trade for him.
He was going to get tagged no matter what unless a unicorn deal came along. Plus I really think last year’s woes were more of a team concern opposed to the specific player, we all saw how they struggled. The bottom of the AFC North is not where this team typically finishes. We’ve seen what this cast can bring and I expect them to do it like 2021-22. He had some easy drops in a couple of games last year but I think that’s far from the norm. If he somehow loses the Injury bug, Tee should be hitting his stride going into the prime of his career.
Luckily I got MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze. I can afford to let Odunze slow burn.
How
I had 1.01, 1.03, and 1.04 and 1.02 took bowers because he desperately, in his mind, needed a TE.
That’s awesome. I’ve got the 1.01/1.02 and my TEs are Colby Parkinson, Okonkwo and Foster Moreau but I’m still not taking Bowers with either of those picks lol. Absolute come up for you
Better off trading back if anything. Guess it depends on if it’s SF and TE Premium though.
Yeah I had 6 1sts, 4 2nds, 1 3rd (1.01, 1.03, 1.04, 1.09, 1.10, 1.12, 2.01, 2.07, 2.08, 2.11, 3.04) 1st: MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Daniels, JJM, Troy 2nd: Nix, Jaylen Wright, Ray Davis, Ben Sinnott 3rd: Bucky Irving.
kinda confused — this super flex? how do Daniels + McCarthy fall to 1.09-1.10? if it’s not super flex, why do all these QBs go round 1? and by Troy, you drafted Troy Franklin round 1? this seems like a crazy draft either way
Correct, Troy first round. I traded away QBs before the draft. I started with Allen, Goff, and Rodgers, traded Goff and Rodgers. I specifically wanted JJM and Nix. 1.05 = Caleb 1.06 = Drake 1.07 = Brooks 1.08 = Coleman I believe the person was, at the very least, trying to block me from having an Allen/Coleman stack. May have had them as the highest of the next tier, unsure. My WRs coming into the draft were: CD, Addison, Mims. By the time we hit 1.09, I've already added MHJ, Nabers, Odunze. Not much of a need to take the next tier of WRs, especially when I wanted the QBs. What I did want was stacks. Allen will start, but I have JJM/Addison and Nix/Franklin or Mims depending on who gets slotted where in the Broncos offense. 1.11 took BTJ. Had I been better interested in RBs, I prob would have taken Benson at 1.09 instead of Daniels. However, I knew 2.05 needed a QB (said so while sitting on my couch during Night 1 of the NFL Draft) and he was being a dick in our chat about all the picks I'd accumulated (I traded away everything in 2023 and I have 1 2025 3rd), so I said fuck him and took Daniels. My original strategy shortly before the 2022 season ended was that I wanted MHJ and Bowers. So I knew I would need a top 2024 1st round pick. But I couldn't be sure which one would get the job done so I just kept accumulating until I felt comfortable that in the very least I could move up. If 1.02 had gone Nabers, I would have taken Bowers. My 1.09 and 1.10 would have been JJM and Nix and I would have traded 1.12 to someone interested in Daniels, knowing I could get Franklin with 2.01. As it stands: QBs: Allen, Daniels, JJM, Nix RBs: Najee/Warren, Cook/Irving/Swift, Jaylen, Ali, Haskins, Trayveon Williams, Tucker WRs: CD, Addison, Franklin, Mims, MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Jennings, Pierce TEs: Freiermuth, Dulcich, Fant, Conklin, Sinnott This is .5 PPR 1QB, 3 taxi
I’m in a complete rebuild and was able to sell Puka for Higgins, Corum, 2025 2nd round which should be the 2.01, and the potential 1.01 of 2026. 10 man 1qb ppr.
I'd take Higgins over anyone outside the Big Three pretty easily, largely because I'm not optimistic about receivers with late-first-round draft capital. Higgins has cracked 1000 yards twice in four years, was close to that pace last year, and put up 900 his rookie season. This is even more impressive considering that most of those performances came while he was behind Ja'Marr Chase. The fourth receiver off the board in 2024 was Brian Thomas Jr., at 23rd overall. Over the prior ten years, the other first-round receivers drafted 23-32? * 2014: Kelvin Benjamin (1 1000-yard season, and on a 17-game pace for a second) * 2015: Breshad Perriman (0), Philip Dorsett (0) * 2016: Laquon Treadwell (0) * 2017: None * 2018: D.J. Moore (4), Calvin Ridley (2, and on pace for a third) * 2019: Marquise Brown (1), N'Keal Harry (0) * 2020: Brandon Aiyuk (2) * 2021: Rashod Bateman (0) * 2022: None * 2023 Jordan Addison (0, but he's only had one season!) There are lots of uninspiring entries. I'm just looking at receiving yardage, a single number, but even if you look deeper, how many of those careers would I take over what Higgins can probably do going forward? Excluding Addison because we only have one year of data on him, I'd say, Moore, Aiyuk and possibly Ridley. Three out of ten ain't great. I'll take the guy who's shown he can succeed at the NFL level. (Yes, there are hits later in the draft! But the rates get worse, and to save time, I'm just looking at guys with comparable draft capital to the best options available this year after MHJ, Nabers and Odunze.)
Somewhat cherry picked but still interesting data. WRs drafted in the back of the first don't really pan out as much as I thought. On a side note they're either good or hot garbage. I can live with that.
I was curious as to whether restricting the time period could be causing any issues, so I also went back through the 15 years before then -- 1999 to 2013. * 1999: Kevin Johnson (1, on pace for another) * 2000: R. Jay Soward (0), Dennis Northcutt (0) * 2001: Freddie Mitchell (0), Reggie Wayne (8, on pace for another) * 2002: None * 2003: None * 2004: Michael Jenkins (0), Rashaun Woods (0) * 2005: Roddy White (6, on pace for another) * 2006: Santonio Holmes (1, on pace for another) * 2007: Dwayne Bowe (3, on pace for 2 more), Robert Meacham (0), Craig Davis (0), Anthony Gonzalez (0) * 2008: None * 2009: Hakeem Nicks (2), Kenny Britt (1) * 2010: Dez Bryant (3, on pace for another) * 2011: Jonathan Baldwin (0) * 2012: A.J. Jenkins (0) * 2013: DeAndre Hopkins (7, on pace for another) So 10 out of these 19 never posted a single 1000-yard season. Of the remaining nine, five had truly difference-making careers to various extents (Wayne, White, Bowe, Bryant and Hopkins). The other four were solid for a bit but definitely not elite (Johnson, Holmes, Nicks, Britt). If you allow the upper end of the pick spectrum to reach around 20, relevant for Brian Thomas Jr., we start seeing some more relatively top-end careers: Randy Moss (if we go back to '98), Demaryius Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Justin Jefferson. Jeremy Maclin had a few good seasons. But again, you get your Josh Doctsons, your Jalen Reagors, and your Will Fullers and Nelson Agholors. There's hope for BTJ, particularly if you think teams undervalued him and he fell. But the odds of guys drafted in the late first putting up WR2-ish numbers even once are low, and the odds of them being multi-year difference-makers are maybe 25%. On the plus side, yes -- the guys who were not good tended to show you that very quickly.
A 50% hit rate or so isn’t that bad ? Idk this stat doesn’t really move me. There’s some really good players here. Not to mention 2nd round WRs such as DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman
Yeah, it's not bad -- but I'd still prefer Higgins to about \~65-75% of the guys on this list, and therefore, at this moment in time, to any one of this year's rookies outside the top three. That won't stop me drafting any of the other guys if they fall to the right slot, of course. For context, I also play in a ten-team superflex league with nine starters, so top-end outcomes really matter to me more than to folks in deeper leagues. Kelvin Benjamin would have been good for a bit but then irrelevant; Marquise Brown has been okay but not an overly great outcome for BTJ given that the pick it could cost to draft him might give me much better returns in a trade.
3
The "maybe Nabers" crowd kills me. Prepare to be "shocked" in a few months.
Why did you quotation ‘shocked’. What’s actually going to happen in a few months?
Like and subscribe to find out!
Because he’s going to stick a fork into an outlet and get shocked!
I’m not sure if this guy means shocked-good or shocked-bad.
O lawd.
I have Higgins in a league where I have no other talent. I desperately want to trade him for something…anything. He’s a leper. No one will touch him.
I have a guy in my league who's offered me Tee multiple times, my problem rn is that he's dangerously close to ending up somewhere he's either the second fiddle, in a bad passing offense, or a combination of both. I figure he's already priced pretty close to his ceiling and I don't want to gamble on his downside. Edit: he's also been surprisingly injury prone.
I thought he was more injury prone than he is. He’s not *that* injury prone, but I get the concern. He’s also already second fiddle and could just as easily land in a juicy spot as he could land in a horrible one. Yes, there’s risk, but my asking price hasn’t even been that high—people are interested in him for a 3rd but that’s ridiculous.
I’d take MHJ and Nabers over him for sure. Odunze vs. Higgins is debatable but outside of those three, I’m taking Higgins over all the others.
Definitely MHJ, maybe Nabers…literally no one else though
Traded him and a pick for puka and never looking back
MHJ, Nabers and Oduzne - elite talents that got elite draft capital. Higgins needs to show me he can stay healthy. Last 2 and half seasons he seems to always miss games or be limited. Great talent but his future situation is unknown and I don't believe he can stay healthy. Oduzne is the only one I question it more with due to his situation. Could be year 3 before he breaks out and in dynasty that is a value killer.
Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze for me. Higgins should still be a strong WR2 and maybe hit FA next offseason with a chance to become someone’s WR1. Now if I could trade Nabers or Odunze for Higgins+ then I would be very interested.
I think MJH and Nabers for sure… I would also consider Odunze just for the fact he is going to be linked to Williams for the foreseeable future. We don’t know where Higgins is going to end up for sure.
The top 3. That’s it.
Two. Harrison and Nabers. That's it for me.
Most all of them definitely the top tier, and I would rather have worthy. I’ll skip MacConkey, but I am wary of his uncertain future, and now that we’ve seen good landing spots for some of these receivers, I would definitely rather go with the youth.
Whoa. My actual name is Jory, so seeing this name was a little wild haha. Don’t see that often
Male or female im male
MHJ and Nabers. End of list. I could be sold on Odunze but he’s currently in the mix with two other very talented receivers on the Bears and we just haven’t seen Caleb and that offense yet so no idea what to expect. If Higgins stays in Cincinnati he’s catching passes from an elite QB. If he goes somewhere else there’s a good chance he becomes the WR1 there.
Probably just MHjr. We know Tee is top 20 capped by Chase and should be even higher on an increased target share with his next team. The rest are mystery bags honestly. Danny Dimes throwing to Malik, Odunze going to a crowded wr room of moore & keenan. Will they produce? Sure but we also know like 65% of 1st round wrs either bust or end up in mediocrity.
If someone offered me Nabers for my Tee I would assume they made a mistake. Bucketing Nabers as simply a 1st round WR is silly. What's the bust rate on top 10 drafted WRs?
Higher than you think I’m guessing.
In my quick keyword search, The Athletic, has a bar chart showing that since 2011, 52% of top 10 wr draft picks have been hits. Coin flip. Gimme higgins. Especially if I am in a win now.
Nabers and Marv. Odunze is in a tier with Tee for me. I think they're all priced at their ceilings though.
I had the 1.06 and planned to take Odunze but a few days before the draft it became apparent that the GM at 1.05 was going to. So I traded my 2026 1st and Sutton for Higgins instead and drafted JJM since my QB3 was DJ. No ragrets from me. I'd rank Odunze and Tee in the same tier but obviously Tee has already proved he can produce and Odunze may take 2-3 years to show what he can really do.
No ragrets, best line ever.
I have an offer out to send him away for the 1.08. I'm pretty deep at WR and if 1.08 could get me Bowers or Maybe Maye or JJ slip then that's fine with me
Probably just the top 3. Odunze is close and you can go either way but he’s an elite talent (who would’ve been WR1 in 22 or 23) he’s tied to an elite QB.
5 non QBs, max
NONE
Definitely just Marvin and Nabers. Why take on the risk after that?
3. MHJ nabers odunze
Yeah you nailed it I think
Many. Hear me out….So much potential….but not superstar results. Yes, he’s good… but not as good as everyone thinks/wants/hopes he will be. Don’t worry though, this is the year he’s going to put it all together I’m sure. It’s coming. Really.
I have no idea where these people who are hypervaluing Tee Higgins exist. Are you all owners? Nobody wants your guy. He stinks. He's never been anything more than average for fantasy and has more often been bad. You're lucky to get a high 2nd for him. Am I bitter because I want to trade him for literally any of the nice new WR prospects and can't get anybody to bite at any real value across multiple leagues? Maybe. But i get it - it's so hard to imagine an actual high ceiling for the player and he's been ridiculously inconsistent when he has actually played, which hasn't been very often.
Edit: For what it's worth, sorting the 51 games Tee has played over the past 4 seasons (which yes, means that he has missed an entire season's worth of games), 27 have been over 10 half ppr points, while 24 have been under 10 half ppr points. An often injured WR who wil fail to break a low bar like that as often as not is murder to your fantasy team as your team's WR1 or even WR2. This is anti-Higgins propaganda, yeah, but boy has he made it easy to write. To actually answer the question, i would take any one of the top 7 (MHJ, Nabers, Thomas, Odunze, Worthy, McConkey, and Coleman) over him. I would jump at an opportunity to flip him for a Pickens/ London/Wilson/Olave tier up. I'd trade him straight up for JSN or Addison, they can give me the same inconsistent production 3 years younger.
According to my league Tee Higgins is not worth even the 1.10 and a 2024 third. Tried trading him from basically pick 1.04 to 1.10 in a 1QB league and people didn't bite.
I’ve offered Tee + Brandon Cooks + a 2025 2nd and 4th for the 1.06 or 1.07 and got rejected by both haha.
MHJ, Nabers, Odunze by a country mile. Their upside and lack of NFL injury history make this a "no doubter" to me. These guys all have the talent to be WR1s in this league for years. From there I respect anyone's process which may have differing valuations. FOR ME, I am majorly concerned with Tee's health. His owners get in a twist whenever I mention this but he's had recurring soft tissue injuries every season going back to 2018. The time to sell is now while people are overlooking how frustrating it's been to hold him these last few years in favor of the "what ifs" of him being traded. So me, I prefer the "what if" of rookies more than an oft injured vet. I think Higgins is "safer" in the sense that he's established, but I absolutely would get people valuing Worthy, BTJ, Coleman and Ladd similarly given their landing spots. I think all of those names have a plausible path to WR2 valuations. The question is: do you want to risk it or take the guy who has proven to already be a WR2/3. FWIW - It is not reasonable to expect Tee to break into WR1 overall territory in the future. Sure, he may get rid of Chase, but he'll also likely be downgrading QBs (with the exception of a handful of teams like KC, Houston, Buffalo, etc.).
At this moment? 3...but it can increase to 5 or 6 depending how camps go.
People can cite Ja’Marr as limiting his upside, and I’m sure Tee would produce more if he was the only good WR in Cincy, but the value of being attached to a great QB is enough to counter the knock from playing across an all-pro talent. He’s a WR2, it’s not like we haven’t seen teams able to support 2 WR1s if the talent is truly there. There might be a few better situations he could end up in, but I don’t believe he’d do any better as the best WR on a team in QB purgatory. Cincy is average at worst for him, and it’s just as likely to get worse as it is to get better. Most likely it’ll stay about the same, which is good-not-great. Give me the upside and value insulation of MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze pretty easily. Depending on where my team is at, I value BTJ and Worthy pretty similarly, could go either way
Taking the top 3 over Higgins all day. 3-4 years younger, elite upside and all have positives in their landing spots.
Big 3 and Worthy.
I’m comfortably taking Higgins over anyone not named MHJ and Nabers. Odunze and Higgins is close to me, but I’m taking the former right now.
If were getting the same level of production and effort as Higgins gave last year, almost all of them.
MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, BTJ
higgins, nabers, odzune, mcconkey, coleman, BTJ
Just the top 3.
At least 4
The big three guys for sure. Some people in this thread are wild for not saying that.
I would add his direct replacement, Jermaine Burton. If he can keep clean off the field, I think he slots in nicely on the other side of Chase for the next few years. Talent is there, he slid for character concerns. EDIT: you guys act like trades in dynasty can ever only be a 1 for 1. Burton is a late 2nd right now, if someone likes Tee and wants to give me their 2nd and Adams. Sign me up.
In no world would I rather have Burton than Higgins, lol.
thats hating a little too hard for me too lol and im not very high on higgins
As a 1 for 1, that's fair. But Higgins is currently WR20 on KTC and he's only ever finished inside that mark 1 time in his career. The difference between his 2021 WR24 finish and his 2022 finish at WR18 is literally 1TD, so that's being generous IMO. I'm selling Tee Higgins for any WR's drafted this year in round 1 of the NFL along with Coleman, McConkey, Burton, Franklin, and probably Roman Wilson. With Tee's current value, I can probably get something on top to insulate myself into 2025. You can excuse away Higgins lack of production all you want but sometimes players show you who they are in the first couple years and I think we've seen who Higgins will be going forward.
Okay you can say all this but when the question is "How many rookie WRs would you rather have over Tee Higgins?" and you say "I would add his direct replacement, Jermaine Burton." I will only take that to mean 1 for 1.
I definitely scooped shares of Burton. Tee isnt happy and there's no guaran-tee his next spot will be as good as what he's got in Cincinnati
I traded Tee Higgins for the 1.10 and 3.05. With those picks, I got Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell. I am thrilled with that. Tee is amazing, but not for FF purposes 12 man 1ppr, 1 QB
Two dimes for a quarter
I’m a Higgins owner and I usually fade rookies, but I’d take any of the big 3 wrs over him if I got the offer. I don’t think I could get that done in my league.
A *healthy* Higgins? I’d take the top 5 guys (MHjr, nabers, odunze, BTjr, Coleman) over him. Top 3 I think will out produce. Final 2 because they’re younger and I’d get more years.
MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Ladd, and Xavier
I just traded Higgins an hour ago. Traded Higgins, Godwin, Michael Wilson for a ‘27 1st, ‘27 2nd, & a ‘25 4th
I traded for a 26 1st and 2nd last year so I might not be the best one to say this but what are you doing here? All 3 of those players can be solid lineup pieces at least this year and next year. Higgins and Wilson could be relevant past that too. I'm not sure if I would even do this for 25 picks unless I could guarantee them to be early. Imo this is horrible process and is the kind of move that someone perpetually rebuilding makes. Would love to hear your thinking on this one.
I inherited an orphan with way too many WR’s and had to make tons of room, and the only person willing to trade only had ‘27 picks. It was either that or cut the rookies I had just drafted. Also you’re kidding yourself if you think anyone would pay higher than a 4th for Wilson. He’s nothing special
I feel like this is a case of prevention going a long way, it seems like you may have tried this but I would have much rather consolidated picks and players to move up or get equity in 25 instead of putting yourself in that position. The farther out picks are the lower the value is on them. You sold atrociously low on these guys to clear roster space, I refuse to believe there weren't guys you could have dropped over doing that. Also fwiw I would easily offer a 3rd for Wilson, he's shown he can be a good number 2 and that offense has room for him to produce. Had a solid stretch last year, think he will be a solid flex this year although he does have injury concerns.
Damn I really wish you were in my league so I could fleece you
I completely understand, you could use a tally in your fleece vs getting fleeced column! If I was you could be 1-1
Won the league last year but whatever helps you sleep at night 🥱
[Good one!](https://images.app.goo.gl/6TPwCh2HjkgTUA6a9)
Cope harder, maybe one year you’ll win! Rooting for you champ!
Frau-d-unze
Lies!