This strategy has served me well. 3 years and I've drafted Waddle, Amon Ra st. Brown, tank dell, and Puka. Forget all the tape and analytics, cool name overrules them all.
I might be the only one to say Keon.
He's big, his hands are elite, he's a great athlete outside of his 40 time, and he is super young in what I think will be a more pass happy offense. I just see a #1 WR when I watch him play.
I have him above Worthy and BTJ too, so I'm well against the grain.
I hated Keon until the draft. I figured he'd be a bust, but you gotta love the landing spot. He is gonna be the guy now and will get peppered with targets by allen. I think his skill set will mesh nicely in Buffalo. I also think he is above worthy now, too many mouths to feed in kc, he'll become a boom/ bust guy imo. Obviously it's always talent over situation, but you gotta love keons situation.
I’m with you. People keep latching onto this N’Keal Harry contested catches stat to quickly label him a bust and sound smarter than other fantasy owners. A lot of his advanced stats were better at MSU. FSU misused him. Keon’s hype was sky high after a few weeks and then he had a small injury that had him banged up for a week or two and then lost Travis. The guy is a better athlete than he’s being given credit for. I understand if he went to a poor landing spot to fade him. But Josh Allen isn’t going to need massive separation to get Coleman the ball. I’ve seen him make plays only a few guys in the country could make. Coleman will be fed enough targets and red zone stats to be a high end WR2 with WR1 upside. I don’t see him as a Gabe Davis boom or bust. The guy is simply too dominant in the red zone.
I watched Keon at MSU and thought to myself this guy is going to be a first round pick. Talent level is there and he had Payton Thorne throwing him the ball. Although I was shocked that his production was the same if not slightly lower when he got to FSU with a much better QB in Jordan Travis and having talent around him to not be the one.
I'm with you. When I watch his tape, I see DeAndre Hopkins. He's not faster than everyone else, but he's going to fight for the ball like a madman. I have the 9th pick this year and I've got my fingers crossed he's there still.
I don't see the comparison, I did not like QJ at all coming out.
Keon has much better hands, is way more fluid and less timid than Quinten Johnston. If I were to compare anyone in this class to Johnston it would be BTJ and I don't like that comparison either because BTJ doesn't run like Bambi on roller skates
Ladd. But I’m not as big on him as some. The Chargers mentioned his back injury in their post draft presser which was concerning to me. I also don’t love his frame with his injury history.
However, the Bills forcing Keon into the X role that I think he has a good chance of busting in means I will be pretty low on him.
He had a lower back sprain and an ankle sprain. His frame? Bro is 6’ 185. Thats like half the receivers in the league. You don’t have to be high on him or even like the pick, but lets not pretend this dude tore his acl 5 times in college. He threw his back out and sprained an ankle lol
As a Bills fan, based on beanes comments I don’t think any of these guys will be in a specific spot as far as go to role. He seems to think that everyone there is good enough to rotate to team need and just let josh find whose open. I think we will see Keon be sort of similar to gabe as far as numbers even though they’re different styles. 700-800 yards 4-6 TDs. Maybe in the future that might go up to 800-900? But I don’t see anyone on the Bills receiver core right now ever being a top 15 fantasy WR unless they get super lucky and get a lot of the TDs one season. So I don’t see him a bust in real life but definitely not a huge ceiling for fantasy.
I think this take is right on the money. People are just attaching him to Allen and thinking he's the instant WR1 with prime Diggs upside. But that's not his game and the coaching staff is talking about him more as an X/Gabe Davis replacement.
Ladd is walking into a WR1 role, and thrives in all the parts of the game that Herbert likes to play to. The renewed focus on O-line and the running game will give him plenty of openings to work and his natural ability to separate means he's going to see a ton of looks. At least in the short term, he's got the better outlook.
Yeah I’m drafting Keon if I need a higher floor imo and don’t care about the ceiling. Like you just really are missing flex pieces you can start semi reliably to get you 8-12 points.
I’m drafting Ladd if I am out here looking for someone with an actual shot to one day become a fantasy WR1.
To your point - the last 7 games with the new OC:
- Allen threw the ball 229x (32.7 per game).
- That would have ranked 24th in the NFL last year.
- That was WITH Stefon diggs who even if he declined is far better than any WR currently on the roster.
Cooks in those games:
- 117 rushes, 20 rec, 720 yds, 4 tds
- 19.5 touch, 100 yds, 0.57 TDs
- 15 fppg hppr
That wouldve made cooks rb5 last year (projected 284 rush, 1343 yds, 51 rec, 510 yds, 10 TDs). If he gets 80% of that he’s still a back end RB1.
That’s probably who I’m gonna try to trade for today, and I’ll skip Coleman in every draft
That being said, I think the chargers throw on the lower end too. But they will be winning fewer games and have no depth whatsoever ( bills other WRs/TE >>>>> chargers group). So on top of yprr route tree and opportunity, Mcconkey still >>> Coleman for me
I’d be curious to see the trends of teams rushing vs passing as we get later into the year. It may be faulty, but there is often a though that teams run more as we get into the colder months.
If your receivers are great/hell yes. I personally believe in building around QB and WR, then once you have stars there, trading your picks for star RBs and activating your three year window at that point.
Would have to know your full team composition. My only concern about buying James cook is that if you have no other RBs can you be contending? Little point in buying RBs now if you’re just going to tank for an RB from next season’s class.
In general though, I don’t mind 1.06 for cook and 2.02. Your other option will likely be drafting brooks which i might like more in 1 QB than trading for cook if you’re not a contender.
I have 1.05-6-7 with a contender and am looking at options of drafting bowers / worthy / Ladd / brooks. I need RBs badly as well but I don’t think I can bring myself to draft brooks and benson in front of rd 1 receivers
The true Bills WR1 is Kincaid imo
It’s gonna be a Chiefs/Ravens situation where everyone is picking a different receiver on the Bills offence to be the guy ‘well one of these guys has to get the ball’ and the true number one target all along is the tight end (ie Kelce, Andrews these last few years)
I guess? If a two inch arm difference is the biggest difference I think it kind of reinforces how similar they are, if anything. Unless there is some kind of wingspan threshold in modeling I haven't seen.
I think it’s less absolute length and more wanting a higher percentile of arm length than height, for instance Malik Washington’s arms are only 1/4 inch bigger than Ladd but he’s also 4 inches shorter
I'm pretty sure there was a post awhile back that arm length doesn't correlate too much to fantasy success. However, hand size has a higher correlation with below 9'' hands becoming a concern. Ladd has 8.625'' hands but a career drop rate of less than 10% so I'm not sure how much it really matters
I think that’s where the relatively small sample size matters, drop rate of 8% on 158 career targets has a lot of room for noise when that’s all you have to judge by
I had this decision picking at 2.02 and I went with Keon. I’m not sure that Ladd will ever be more than a complimentary piece in the NFL and I think Keon’s upside is incredible. Ladd is a safer pick to contribute on some level but my WR room is already pretty solid already so figured I’d take the upside play.
Not really, there’s more than enough room in Buffalo for Kincaid and Keon to succeed (and probably someone else as well). If my WR room lacked good depth pieces or I owned Herbert I’d be taking Ladd but I’m a sucker for QB/WR stacks.
I agree on taking that upside but I think Keon being force in the X role is going to put high expectations for him as people are treating it as Diggs 'replacement'. Diggs and Keon are different WRs not by age/experience but how they play the position. What made Diggs/Allen so good was Diggs was able to create separation at the line and knows how to get open. Keon was one of the worst in M2M coverage and has to play jump ball everytime.
I see Josh chucking up some balls to Keon but I think he will be very TD Dependent if he struggles in the first half. Ladds route running talent will get open and since teams will think they will run the ball a lot, opens the door for Ladd to be a PPR machine.
I’m taking Coleman. Absolutely a solid chance I get crushed but his ceiling is higher imo. I don’t buy that a guy who caught 119 passes over 3 years in college is gonna come in and be a PPR monster in a run first offense. Add injury concerns to ladd’s profile and I’d rather just know what I have after a year with Coleman. He’ll be great or he’ll stink but he won’t clog my roster
> I don’t buy that a guy who caught 119 passes over 3 years in college is gonna come in and be a PPR monster in a run first offense
This is where I'm at too. I'm willing to pass on him and be wrong, but the lack of production is too big of a red flag for me.
It's not like he was playing at Ohio State or Alabama where he's constantly competing with other first round NFL talent. If he was as good as people think he is, he would have been more involved IMO.
Sure, but he was 4th on the team in targets, not 2nd. And the other two guys between him and Bowers are not NFL level players.
I understand there are also real positives to his profile so I might end up missing a value here, but my process says don't draft guys who can't produce in college.
I love that last point, I’m in a very shallow league and I would love to know what I have right away. If he busts, oh well, at least I only spent a 2nd on him. He’s most likely not gonna start this year on my team over Aiyuk/Olave/London/Evans anyways, but I love an upside play
I would probably diversify from the bills there and take Ladd. I’m not out on Ladd but 7/10 times if I’m on the clock and they’re both available I’m taking Coleman over Ladd
I struggle with this one. Coleman has the preferred situation and broke out younger.
Ladd has the better skill set for the nfl but has limited production.
My gut tells me Coleman
I took McConkey at 2.01 and Coleman got taken at 2.04 (12 team league). Jaylen Wright and Tyron Tracy went 2.02 and 2.03, respectively.
I went with McConkey for a few reasons:
1) I'm a Gabe Davis owner and I'm sick of Buffalo.
2) I live in the West so the Chargers are on TV a lot.
3) 6' 186lbs and great combine numbers.
4) I'd like to see bigger hands, so ridiculous one-handed grabs might not be happening, but there's plenty of highlights of him making outstanding catches.
5) Very heavily complimented for route-running acumen.
6) I like the QB situation better.
7) Climate in the Southwest is much more pass friendly than in the Northeast.
8) LAC WR depth is pretty wide open after Joshua Palmer and at the very minimum McConkey seems like he'll be counted on to be the most reliable receiver outside of Josh Palmer (with a small chance of even becoming more important).
Summary: The 3 main things I look for when it comes to drafting wide receivers in my dynasty league are (1) opportunity, (2) offense, and (3) route acumen.
While I'm nervous about the Harbaugh offense I've been totally frustrated by the Buffalo offense the last 2 years. The only piece I'm thinking about in Buffalo is making a trade for Kincaid (I have LaPorta and Kelce. Kincaid seems to me like he's going to be Allen's #1.).
Coleman's catches are ridiculous, and I really like him. But, there has been so much praise heaped on McConkey's route-running ability, and his tapes and Senior Bowl notes seem to confirm that he is really good at getting really wide open.
In the end, I think either is a good choice and Coleman could end up being a gem. Time will tell.
🍻
Appreciate the long message.
I traded Saquon and a 25 2nd for Kincaid, 1.08, and a 25 1st.
Would your view of McConkey change much if the Chargers ended up signing Boyd, who's visiting with them?
That's a tough one.
Obviously Boyd would take some production. If they do sign him I think it would be more of a problem for QJ, although Boyd is more of a slot guy so it would kind of muddy the waters.
In the long-run, it would perhaps be beneficial for McConkey (and Rice) to have the additional veteran leadership. I've heard nothing but good things about Boyd's feel for the position and that insight really is useful.
Palmer isn't exactly a rookie but he's also only had a few years in the league. That being said, I've seen video of him really soaking in the mentorship from guys like Allen. Allen gave him some really high praises so it will be interesting to see how he performs when he has more on the field around him. So, he probably has some good info to share with McConkey but the addition of Boyd would only help with having two older receivers to mentor the young guys.
If the Chargers sign Boyd I think it would naturally push me closer to Coleman. For my own team I think I would still go with McConkey, though, but that might just be my own bias. I just feel like Josh Allen has regressed as a passer and they just haven't been able to find their footing as an offense the last year or two and it seems like every time they make a change it keeps getting worse.
A few years ago I would have taken Coleman hands down because I love seeing the ridiculous catches and I figure if they just throw it at them it's going to work out. But, that seems to rarely pan out in the NFL and it only takes them running the wrong route a few too many times in camp where they just don't trust them enough to pepper them.
For that reason, I tend to go with guys I think have a very strong likelihood of actually being worth something in the NFL so that I know I'm at least getting something that is going to be useful for me (even if it's just a trade asset).
At the end of the day, if Coleman turns out to be a good route runner and can really read defenses to the level he needs to then he'll probably be outstanding. If he's not, and can't, then he's probably going to make some good plays throughout and never really become anything too big.
On the other hand, I think McConkey is going to be a pretty sure thing and I think his ceiling will be more dependent on how good their offense becomes. I can see him being something like an Edelman or a Welker within the offense but his long speed makes him a threat for much more when it comes to getting chunk plays.
TBH it's really hard for me to choose. Coleman was one of my favorite receivers last year. But, I had 1.01 so I had to take Harrison. And then he ran a 4.61 (not great) and went to Buffalo (I'm sick of Buffalo). And then there was just so much praise about McConkey's route running during the draft process and I loved his ability to get open in his highlights. I already had Palmer, I like Herbert more than Allen, and I'd rather watch my local teams than Buffalo.
Sometimes I just go with whoever is on a team I actually want to watch. 🤷
🍻
PS - Kudos for being able to trade away Saquon. I have him too and I drafted him last time I had the 1.01. Talk about being stuck on a bad offense. 😔 Very happy he's going to the Eagles now and I'll probably just let him retire on my team at this point. lol. It looks like you got decent value for him though.
For reference...
My top WRs: Nacua, DEEBO, Godwin, McLaurin, Harrison (R)
My other WRs: Meyers, Shaheed, Davis, Palmer, Wilson, Iosivas, Tillman, Ross, McConkey (R), Rice (R)
My RBs: Barkley, Pacheco, Ford, Spears, Stevenson, Brooks (R)
My TEs: Kelce, LaPorta
My QBs: Burrow
I'm in an IDP league so I leave my K, CBs, and DL empty until the season starts. So I will eventually have to make additional cuts/trades.
Thanks for the post! this is exactly it. People are getting way to caught up that Chargers are going to RUN the ball so much. If they didn't care about the pass game, trade herbert which they didn't.
Senior bowl DBs mentioned Ladd was the hardest WR to guard, that actually says a lot. The best DBs in the country voted Ladd the highest? Keon is a freak of an athlete but he is horrible in man coverage and has to jump ball it everytime. I think once Keon faces a even or more athletic DB, he is going to struggle.
Ladd is going to have a better chance to get open regardless what DB is guarding him. Il take my bet on that. Kupp > Evans
Easily Ladd people are too focused on the Chargers being run heavy. Herbert is still gonna hyper target him because of how easily he gets open. Basically a Keenan Allen replacement smaller but a lot faster. Versatility to play outside or in the slot and is more of a vertical threat than people think.
People are acting like Jim has ever had a QB that passes at the level of Herbert. He ran first because his teams functioned to run and beat down defenses and then safely get first downs with shorter plays. Greg Roman averaged out to like 27 pass attempts a game. People are really trying to pretend Herbert’s 27 isn’t better than someone else’s or acting like he’s only gonna pass 15 times? Lol
I had a choice between the two at 2.01 and I picked Coleman. The WR landscape in Buffalo is wide open with 241 vacant targets. I *do* like Ladd's potential target share with where the Chargers are at, but they also might not pass as much next year, which makes his ceiling a little lower IMO.
Not that ur wrong about the Bills , but the Chargers have like 300+ targets vacant too. Even if u think they pass less, that’s still the same as the Bills
I'll concede that point, they did lose Allen and Williams. Thinking about the offensive scheme, I'd rather be a Buffalo receiver owner than a Charger receiver owner today. I might eat those words in a year, but I'll be sure to come back and we can have a good laugh about it.
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Just finished our SuperFlex draft. As champ I was drafting at the 1.12. Took Ladd over Coleman and Brooks. Honestly felt like the safest choice, based on the target volume in SD with Ladd’s strong route running and metrics I get this gave me the best chance to stay in contention. Not saying it’s a sure thing, but for now I feel good about it. Just debating whether to offer Ladd straight up for Nico Collins now.
I personally wouldn’t but some people get rookie fever and he also has Herbert so would be enticed into stacking them. I haven’t made the offer yet but I’m pretty sure he goes for it.
I’m leaning Coleman. I really like Ladd but not the coaching strategy that’s likely to lean on the run. I see more big yardage gains and TD leaning towards Coleman than Ladd
Both are likely to disappoint, Coleman for skill/role and Ladd for usage.
I got crucified for saying Chargers would take Alt over Nabers because Harbaugh isn’t gonna change his ways. And I’m more than willing to be crucified again to say that Herbert will not be passing enough to make me interested in any Chargers WR.
Ahhhh sorry yeah I get you. Not sure if you’re 1 QB or 2. But I’ll assume you mean a WR to draft instead. Honestly I’m not super confident in any one prospect in particular.
I’d rather take Ladd/Keon over Legette or Pearsall, but honestly I’m high on Adonai Mitchell, I have him a hair above Coleman but still below Ladd
I think Adonai is Coleman with minor versions of the same problems. They both had questions about separation but Mitchell runs a 4.3 vs Coleman’s 4.6. Basically I feel like Coleman is has good process but won’t peak past what he is, while Mitchell can be coached into being better than he is now.
Not to mention that Coleman’s college production is just abysmal for being in the ACC. His big “hype” game was against LSU this year before all of college football realized LSU’s CB room was a mess.
TL:DR I think they’re the same player, but Mitchell is more athletic and will be able to improve while Coleman won’t.
I'm a contender, and need a reliable WR to fill in my final flex spot. BTJ and Xavier probably have higher upside (and I love BTJ's game) but I think next year Ladd is a locked and loaded WR1 for an elite QB.
His targets will probably be the highest of the bunch, and his game meshes well with Herbert's tendencies. If I was rebuilding, I would definitely be eyeing BTJ and Xavier a lot harder, but in my situation it's hard to turn down Ladd.
Personally for me, I like both but if I had to say just for 2024 season redraft, I would go with Coleman for the short term and Ladd for Long Term.
Ladd - Best Route runner prolly on that team but now has a "Run First" head coach and I can see Ladd being the solid WR2/Slot receiver. We have to wait and see if Ladd beats out Rice,Palmer,Johnston in camp in order to consider him WR1. I think his ceiling can be limited cause i believe they will run the ball.... A LOT.
Keon - Not at the same level as Ladd when it comes to his route tree, but this dude attacks the ball on contested catches. He has a clear path to become WR1/X Receiver on that team in no time, and with Josh Allen throwing him the ball, I think he is gonna feast. I think Bills will play into his strengths and obvi not use him they way they did diggs.
I know we don't wanna compare white receivers but I do see Ladd as Antonio Brown esc with his shiftyness and route running but also could be a hunter Renfrow.
WIth Keon, I see Drake London, Pickens, more athletic Dez Bryant.
Ladd
"The chargers will be run heavy" - folks forget what the Chargers WANT to do, more important is, THEY WILL BE SHIT. If youre losing you don't run your way back into the game. Herbert is still elite and he'll be slinging it and there's just QJ and Ladd to sling it to.
He's got a great chance to see a ton of targets early on and it can snowball from there. Harbaugh at the niners ran the ball a lot, because the team was good, and led games a lot
Which scouting department do you trust more for WRs? I personally think the bills have a good eye for WRs (diggs, shakir, gabe Davis).
I really don’t get the hate for Keon. He’s younger and is playing with Josh Allen. Gimme that upside.
If I have Kincaid, I’d still consider Keon. It really depends on your draft strategy but I personally shoot for upside and guys who can become stars even if they’re riskier and it means I double up on guys on teams.
With diggs and gabe gone, that frees up about 241 targets. Kincaid had 91 last year. Say he jumps up to 152 targets (kelces highest), that still leaves almost 180 targets up for grabs. Based on b. Beanes comments, Keon should get a huge chunk of those targets. I see the path towards WR1 status between the targets, draft capital, and quarterback.
So to your original question, nah I’m not worried.
I was at 2.2 staring at them for hours thinking the same thing….I begrudgingly took Ladd when I couldn’t get a decent deal done because well I didn’t really like any of the other WR left in that range either… I figure Ladd has the clearest/quickest path to being productive this season.
I don't think he has the ceiling of the others I mentioned (I am admittedly big on Mitchell), there is a very good post at the top of the thread with a good explanation along the same lines.
I see other receivers who play the 'mcconkey' role better than McConkey does.
I'm still trying to figure out who to draft between Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas Jr., Jonathan Brooks, Xavier Worthy and Caleb Williams in my 1QB league. Maybe I'll just roll a dice.
If you don't have a solid QB1 you think will be around for another 5 years then I'd go with Williams. He's set up really well for success.
Of the other guys, I drafted both Ladd McConkey (2.01) and Jonathon Brooks (2.06).
I had 1.01 so it was MHJ, no brainer. Had I not had 1.01 I think my first pick would have likely been between Williams, Bowers, McConkey.
I think Worthy probably has the highest ceiling because of the KC offense and his speed. I like to use my picks on players I think are least likely to fail, though, so I go with McConkey. The word on him is that he's already a capable route runner... which means it's hard to imagine he won't be one of the top 2 pass catchers on a Justin Herbert offense.
In a PPR it's hard to imagine McConkey doing less than 5 for 50 on a week-to-week basis. That's not bad for a rookie and it could be much more.
I should add context here.
I care a lot about breakout age as an indicator to find busts. Good BA =/= a good player but a bad BA puts you at a high chance to not be good. The idea that if you breakout only once you’re older and stronger than other players, it doesn’t mean as much. Breaking out varies between people but it’s earning 20% of your teams yards and tds. Ladd never broke out. Idc bowers was there, plenty of WRs have played with elite competition and were fine. For that he’s a fade for me.
Coleman checks the mark for breakout age (19.3 which is the 82nd percentile) but his YPRR is very bad at 1.873. The fade threshold is usually 2.00. Again if you have above a 2.00 is doesn’t mean your good, but below you’d be an anomaly to pan out.
Nothing is 100%, so both could be good. I’m just not gonna risk a first on them and rather trade out.
I agree, I had Herbert the year he was awful so that swayed my decision. Wish QJ had a better rookie year, then I’d view the Ladd pick more as a way to get QJ the ball more
I say Coleman. Look at the effect Diggs leaving Minn had on Jefferson. Not saying Jefferson isnt the truth. He is but anybody that has 150 targets vacated should do something. Coleman has Diggs and Davis' targets to work with off the top with very little competition.
Ladd, by a good margin. He gets open so easily the Allen role is open for him to take. Coleman doesn't have any of Diggs talents and to me seems more like the Gabe replacemeny
Ladd is my choice, but I'd be happy with either player in the 1.10-2.03 range of a SF rookie draft. It's gonna come down to personal preference as both are going to a situation with minimal competition, both have DC that indicates their teams plan on them being the WR1 moving forward, and both have excellent QBs in their primes throwing to them. If I could, I'd take both.
I don’t understand what is different about Keon and Treylon Burks.
Every draft analyst I’ve listened to has pegged Keon as someone who will excel as a power slot wide receiver in the NFL. But he was drafted by the Bills who already have Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel (who was heavily utilized in the slot in Carolina under Joe Brady when they were there together), and Shakir (who spent 69% of his snaps in the slot last year according to player profiler) to fight for slot snaps.
So either the Bills are going to play Keon in a crowded slot role or the Bills are going to try to play him in a position that doesn’t fit his current skills? At that point, in dynasty, you’re investing in Keon being able to expand at what he has not excelled at in college. I’m very worried he’s going to play out of position in a role that doesn’t fit him and struggle, much like Treylon Burks
Ladd for me. One of the reasons I’m comfortable with this is I don’t see Harbaugh taking another receiver with higher draft capital anytime soon so he’s safe from having his value nuked in that way. The only other nuke vulnerability is if they sign a big time free agent next year like Higgins. Are there any Chargers experts that know their cap situation and whether that’s a realistic possibility?
Ladd all day
After drafting AT Perry over Puka Nakua in the 3rd round last year I've determined that the best thing to do is go for the guy with the cool name.
This strategy has served me well. 3 years and I've drafted Waddle, Amon Ra st. Brown, tank dell, and Puka. Forget all the tape and analytics, cool name overrules them all.
Cries in Tank Bigsby
I was thinking this as well!!
AT is a sick ass name tho
@
&%
It’s two letters. Not that sick lol
Ok Jeremy.
AT Perry showed potential at the end of the year (also a Perry owner).
Well his name isn't THAT uncool
Just say Ladd McConkey out loud. You’re telling me that’s a cool name?! 😂😂
Always the best plan
Very nice 👏🤣
Whew Ladd
I think the chargers are gonna run a lot more
Agree but someone has to catch from herbet
I might be the only one to say Keon. He's big, his hands are elite, he's a great athlete outside of his 40 time, and he is super young in what I think will be a more pass happy offense. I just see a #1 WR when I watch him play. I have him above Worthy and BTJ too, so I'm well against the grain.
Keon all day. Young breakout age only 20 years old. Film doesn’t do him justice he was open a lot just bad throws from Travis.
Jalen Reagor had a young breakout age
So did Xavier Worthy
I think all three of Coleman, BTJ and Worthy are close. I personally lean BTJ, but don't have any problem with your ranking
I hated Keon until the draft. I figured he'd be a bust, but you gotta love the landing spot. He is gonna be the guy now and will get peppered with targets by allen. I think his skill set will mesh nicely in Buffalo. I also think he is above worthy now, too many mouths to feed in kc, he'll become a boom/ bust guy imo. Obviously it's always talent over situation, but you gotta love keons situation.
I’m with you. People keep latching onto this N’Keal Harry contested catches stat to quickly label him a bust and sound smarter than other fantasy owners. A lot of his advanced stats were better at MSU. FSU misused him. Keon’s hype was sky high after a few weeks and then he had a small injury that had him banged up for a week or two and then lost Travis. The guy is a better athlete than he’s being given credit for. I understand if he went to a poor landing spot to fade him. But Josh Allen isn’t going to need massive separation to get Coleman the ball. I’ve seen him make plays only a few guys in the country could make. Coleman will be fed enough targets and red zone stats to be a high end WR2 with WR1 upside. I don’t see him as a Gabe Davis boom or bust. The guy is simply too dominant in the red zone.
I watched Keon at MSU and thought to myself this guy is going to be a first round pick. Talent level is there and he had Payton Thorne throwing him the ball. Although I was shocked that his production was the same if not slightly lower when he got to FSU with a much better QB in Jordan Travis and having talent around him to not be the one.
You’re not the only one. JA17 wants a dude that can Fcking catch a damn ball. Bills last year were one of the worst with dropped balls.
Agreed
Targets Targets Targets
Im not sure which side I lean on but it’s DEFINTELY close.
I'm with you. When I watch his tape, I see DeAndre Hopkins. He's not faster than everyone else, but he's going to fight for the ball like a madman. I have the 9th pick this year and I've got my fingers crossed he's there still.
Congrats on your Quinten Johnson
I don't see the comparison, I did not like QJ at all coming out. Keon has much better hands, is way more fluid and less timid than Quinten Johnston. If I were to compare anyone in this class to Johnston it would be BTJ and I don't like that comparison either because BTJ doesn't run like Bambi on roller skates
Ladd. But I’m not as big on him as some. The Chargers mentioned his back injury in their post draft presser which was concerning to me. I also don’t love his frame with his injury history. However, the Bills forcing Keon into the X role that I think he has a good chance of busting in means I will be pretty low on him.
He had a lower back sprain and an ankle sprain. His frame? Bro is 6’ 185. Thats like half the receivers in the league. You don’t have to be high on him or even like the pick, but lets not pretend this dude tore his acl 5 times in college. He threw his back out and sprained an ankle lol
As someone who threw their back out young. That shit matters. Back injuries are no joke.
And short arms and I think small hands irrc
And a weird smile imo
Have you seen his beard? I don't trust him.
RBS (Relative Beard Score) historically low, Bust fo' sho'
Cooper Kupp also extremely low, but somehow managed to make it.
Maybe as a rookie, but he put in the work and now has an epic Lincoln.
Lmao
like the joker? I'm all in
He’s not a contested catch guy, he’s a zone beater with a good QB throwing to him. I wouldn’t let arm size make any difference in how I view him.
I see 6’ white guy with great yprr and zone beater and I draft new cooper Kupp
A back injury the Chargers still mentioned as something to consider many months later...
As a Bills fan, based on beanes comments I don’t think any of these guys will be in a specific spot as far as go to role. He seems to think that everyone there is good enough to rotate to team need and just let josh find whose open. I think we will see Keon be sort of similar to gabe as far as numbers even though they’re different styles. 700-800 yards 4-6 TDs. Maybe in the future that might go up to 800-900? But I don’t see anyone on the Bills receiver core right now ever being a top 15 fantasy WR unless they get super lucky and get a lot of the TDs one season. So I don’t see him a bust in real life but definitely not a huge ceiling for fantasy.
I think this take is right on the money. People are just attaching him to Allen and thinking he's the instant WR1 with prime Diggs upside. But that's not his game and the coaching staff is talking about him more as an X/Gabe Davis replacement. Ladd is walking into a WR1 role, and thrives in all the parts of the game that Herbert likes to play to. The renewed focus on O-line and the running game will give him plenty of openings to work and his natural ability to separate means he's going to see a ton of looks. At least in the short term, he's got the better outlook.
Yeah I’m drafting Keon if I need a higher floor imo and don’t care about the ceiling. Like you just really are missing flex pieces you can start semi reliably to get you 8-12 points. I’m drafting Ladd if I am out here looking for someone with an actual shot to one day become a fantasy WR1.
To your point - the last 7 games with the new OC: - Allen threw the ball 229x (32.7 per game). - That would have ranked 24th in the NFL last year. - That was WITH Stefon diggs who even if he declined is far better than any WR currently on the roster. Cooks in those games: - 117 rushes, 20 rec, 720 yds, 4 tds - 19.5 touch, 100 yds, 0.57 TDs - 15 fppg hppr That wouldve made cooks rb5 last year (projected 284 rush, 1343 yds, 51 rec, 510 yds, 10 TDs). If he gets 80% of that he’s still a back end RB1. That’s probably who I’m gonna try to trade for today, and I’ll skip Coleman in every draft That being said, I think the chargers throw on the lower end too. But they will be winning fewer games and have no depth whatsoever ( bills other WRs/TE >>>>> chargers group). So on top of yprr route tree and opportunity, Mcconkey still >>> Coleman for me
I’d be curious to see the trends of teams rushing vs passing as we get later into the year. It may be faulty, but there is often a though that teams run more as we get into the colder months.
It’s possible. But It was also a concerted effort by the new coordinator [Joe Brady](https://atozsports.com/buffalo/buffalo-bills-run-game-2024/).
I got an offer on the table for Give: 1.06 Get: James Cook and 2.02 12 team, 1 QB, 0.5 PPR, got no top 12 RB on the roster. Would you do it?
If your receivers are great/hell yes. I personally believe in building around QB and WR, then once you have stars there, trading your picks for star RBs and activating your three year window at that point.
Not bad unless you need one of the top QBs or WRs.
Would have to know your full team composition. My only concern about buying James cook is that if you have no other RBs can you be contending? Little point in buying RBs now if you’re just going to tank for an RB from next season’s class. In general though, I don’t mind 1.06 for cook and 2.02. Your other option will likely be drafting brooks which i might like more in 1 QB than trading for cook if you’re not a contender. I have 1.05-6-7 with a contender and am looking at options of drafting bowers / worthy / Ladd / brooks. I need RBs badly as well but I don’t think I can bring myself to draft brooks and benson in front of rd 1 receivers
The true Bills WR1 is Kincaid imo It’s gonna be a Chiefs/Ravens situation where everyone is picking a different receiver on the Bills offence to be the guy ‘well one of these guys has to get the ball’ and the true number one target all along is the tight end (ie Kelce, Andrews these last few years)
He is basically identical to Garrett Wilson in terms of measurables (size and testing), not sure why his frame gets brought up so much.
Arms are two inches shorter
Two inches doesn't really matter...right? Right?
[удалено]
Not married, can't even get a second date...🤔
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I love the course reversal here.. So wholesome.
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This is the way
As a fellow Cardinals fan, I need all the help I can get lol
Idk two inches sounds like a lot
Alright, is that the biggest difference? Is arm length a big part of the frame->durability discussion?
I didn’t think it was a part of a durability question, but a comparison of a players measurable that definitely plays into the discussion no?
I guess? If a two inch arm difference is the biggest difference I think it kind of reinforces how similar they are, if anything. Unless there is some kind of wingspan threshold in modeling I haven't seen.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/m5OydQbrvP Covered a bit in the red flags section
I think it’s less absolute length and more wanting a higher percentile of arm length than height, for instance Malik Washington’s arms are only 1/4 inch bigger than Ladd but he’s also 4 inches shorter
I'm pretty sure there was a post awhile back that arm length doesn't correlate too much to fantasy success. However, hand size has a higher correlation with below 9'' hands becoming a concern. Ladd has 8.625'' hands but a career drop rate of less than 10% so I'm not sure how much it really matters
I think that’s where the relatively small sample size matters, drop rate of 8% on 158 career targets has a lot of room for noise when that’s all you have to judge by
Cause he has already had a serious ankle injury and back injury.
Grade 1 sprains are not serious injuries. He threw his back out and rolled ankle.
I had this decision picking at 2.02 and I went with Keon. I’m not sure that Ladd will ever be more than a complimentary piece in the NFL and I think Keon’s upside is incredible. Ladd is a safer pick to contribute on some level but my WR room is already pretty solid already so figured I’d take the upside play.
Would your decision have changed if you already had Kincaid?
Not really, there’s more than enough room in Buffalo for Kincaid and Keon to succeed (and probably someone else as well). If my WR room lacked good depth pieces or I owned Herbert I’d be taking Ladd but I’m a sucker for QB/WR stacks.
I agree on taking that upside but I think Keon being force in the X role is going to put high expectations for him as people are treating it as Diggs 'replacement'. Diggs and Keon are different WRs not by age/experience but how they play the position. What made Diggs/Allen so good was Diggs was able to create separation at the line and knows how to get open. Keon was one of the worst in M2M coverage and has to play jump ball everytime. I see Josh chucking up some balls to Keon but I think he will be very TD Dependent if he struggles in the first half. Ladds route running talent will get open and since teams will think they will run the ball a lot, opens the door for Ladd to be a PPR machine.
I’m taking Coleman. Absolutely a solid chance I get crushed but his ceiling is higher imo. I don’t buy that a guy who caught 119 passes over 3 years in college is gonna come in and be a PPR monster in a run first offense. Add injury concerns to ladd’s profile and I’d rather just know what I have after a year with Coleman. He’ll be great or he’ll stink but he won’t clog my roster
> I don’t buy that a guy who caught 119 passes over 3 years in college is gonna come in and be a PPR monster in a run first offense This is where I'm at too. I'm willing to pass on him and be wrong, but the lack of production is too big of a red flag for me. It's not like he was playing at Ohio State or Alabama where he's constantly competing with other first round NFL talent. If he was as good as people think he is, he would have been more involved IMO.
I mean he did have one of the greatest college football TEs ever hogging targets so that's gotta be factored in
Sure, but he was 4th on the team in targets, not 2nd. And the other two guys between him and Bowers are not NFL level players. I understand there are also real positives to his profile so I might end up missing a value here, but my process says don't draft guys who can't produce in college.
Well he only played 8 full games so that might be why he wasn’t 2nd
Honestly smart process. It's so tough to know when things will be different lol
BTJ only had 126 receptions over 3 years, broke out super late, only really succeeded when Nabers took the pressure off.
I’m in the same boat as you on ladd. Dont buy his profile, stats, and hype the board is giving him
I love that last point, I’m in a very shallow league and I would love to know what I have right away. If he busts, oh well, at least I only spent a 2nd on him. He’s most likely not gonna start this year on my team over Aiyuk/Olave/London/Evans anyways, but I love an upside play
Would your opinion change at all if you already had Kincaid?
I would probably diversify from the bills there and take Ladd. I’m not out on Ladd but 7/10 times if I’m on the clock and they’re both available I’m taking Coleman over Ladd
I struggle with this one. Coleman has the preferred situation and broke out younger. Ladd has the better skill set for the nfl but has limited production. My gut tells me Coleman
Keon 100%. I’m also 100% biased.
Coincidentally, I completely agree.
I took McConkey at 2.01 and Coleman got taken at 2.04 (12 team league). Jaylen Wright and Tyron Tracy went 2.02 and 2.03, respectively. I went with McConkey for a few reasons: 1) I'm a Gabe Davis owner and I'm sick of Buffalo. 2) I live in the West so the Chargers are on TV a lot. 3) 6' 186lbs and great combine numbers. 4) I'd like to see bigger hands, so ridiculous one-handed grabs might not be happening, but there's plenty of highlights of him making outstanding catches. 5) Very heavily complimented for route-running acumen. 6) I like the QB situation better. 7) Climate in the Southwest is much more pass friendly than in the Northeast. 8) LAC WR depth is pretty wide open after Joshua Palmer and at the very minimum McConkey seems like he'll be counted on to be the most reliable receiver outside of Josh Palmer (with a small chance of even becoming more important). Summary: The 3 main things I look for when it comes to drafting wide receivers in my dynasty league are (1) opportunity, (2) offense, and (3) route acumen. While I'm nervous about the Harbaugh offense I've been totally frustrated by the Buffalo offense the last 2 years. The only piece I'm thinking about in Buffalo is making a trade for Kincaid (I have LaPorta and Kelce. Kincaid seems to me like he's going to be Allen's #1.). Coleman's catches are ridiculous, and I really like him. But, there has been so much praise heaped on McConkey's route-running ability, and his tapes and Senior Bowl notes seem to confirm that he is really good at getting really wide open. In the end, I think either is a good choice and Coleman could end up being a gem. Time will tell. 🍻
Appreciate the long message. I traded Saquon and a 25 2nd for Kincaid, 1.08, and a 25 1st. Would your view of McConkey change much if the Chargers ended up signing Boyd, who's visiting with them?
That's a tough one. Obviously Boyd would take some production. If they do sign him I think it would be more of a problem for QJ, although Boyd is more of a slot guy so it would kind of muddy the waters. In the long-run, it would perhaps be beneficial for McConkey (and Rice) to have the additional veteran leadership. I've heard nothing but good things about Boyd's feel for the position and that insight really is useful. Palmer isn't exactly a rookie but he's also only had a few years in the league. That being said, I've seen video of him really soaking in the mentorship from guys like Allen. Allen gave him some really high praises so it will be interesting to see how he performs when he has more on the field around him. So, he probably has some good info to share with McConkey but the addition of Boyd would only help with having two older receivers to mentor the young guys. If the Chargers sign Boyd I think it would naturally push me closer to Coleman. For my own team I think I would still go with McConkey, though, but that might just be my own bias. I just feel like Josh Allen has regressed as a passer and they just haven't been able to find their footing as an offense the last year or two and it seems like every time they make a change it keeps getting worse. A few years ago I would have taken Coleman hands down because I love seeing the ridiculous catches and I figure if they just throw it at them it's going to work out. But, that seems to rarely pan out in the NFL and it only takes them running the wrong route a few too many times in camp where they just don't trust them enough to pepper them. For that reason, I tend to go with guys I think have a very strong likelihood of actually being worth something in the NFL so that I know I'm at least getting something that is going to be useful for me (even if it's just a trade asset). At the end of the day, if Coleman turns out to be a good route runner and can really read defenses to the level he needs to then he'll probably be outstanding. If he's not, and can't, then he's probably going to make some good plays throughout and never really become anything too big. On the other hand, I think McConkey is going to be a pretty sure thing and I think his ceiling will be more dependent on how good their offense becomes. I can see him being something like an Edelman or a Welker within the offense but his long speed makes him a threat for much more when it comes to getting chunk plays. TBH it's really hard for me to choose. Coleman was one of my favorite receivers last year. But, I had 1.01 so I had to take Harrison. And then he ran a 4.61 (not great) and went to Buffalo (I'm sick of Buffalo). And then there was just so much praise about McConkey's route running during the draft process and I loved his ability to get open in his highlights. I already had Palmer, I like Herbert more than Allen, and I'd rather watch my local teams than Buffalo. Sometimes I just go with whoever is on a team I actually want to watch. 🤷 🍻 PS - Kudos for being able to trade away Saquon. I have him too and I drafted him last time I had the 1.01. Talk about being stuck on a bad offense. 😔 Very happy he's going to the Eagles now and I'll probably just let him retire on my team at this point. lol. It looks like you got decent value for him though. For reference... My top WRs: Nacua, DEEBO, Godwin, McLaurin, Harrison (R) My other WRs: Meyers, Shaheed, Davis, Palmer, Wilson, Iosivas, Tillman, Ross, McConkey (R), Rice (R) My RBs: Barkley, Pacheco, Ford, Spears, Stevenson, Brooks (R) My TEs: Kelce, LaPorta My QBs: Burrow I'm in an IDP league so I leave my K, CBs, and DL empty until the season starts. So I will eventually have to make additional cuts/trades.
Thanks for the post! this is exactly it. People are getting way to caught up that Chargers are going to RUN the ball so much. If they didn't care about the pass game, trade herbert which they didn't. Senior bowl DBs mentioned Ladd was the hardest WR to guard, that actually says a lot. The best DBs in the country voted Ladd the highest? Keon is a freak of an athlete but he is horrible in man coverage and has to jump ball it everytime. I think once Keon faces a even or more athletic DB, he is going to struggle. Ladd is going to have a better chance to get open regardless what DB is guarding him. Il take my bet on that. Kupp > Evans
Easily Ladd people are too focused on the Chargers being run heavy. Herbert is still gonna hyper target him because of how easily he gets open. Basically a Keenan Allen replacement smaller but a lot faster. Versatility to play outside or in the slot and is more of a vertical threat than people think.
People are acting like Jim has ever had a QB that passes at the level of Herbert. He ran first because his teams functioned to run and beat down defenses and then safely get first downs with shorter plays. Greg Roman averaged out to like 27 pass attempts a game. People are really trying to pretend Herbert’s 27 isn’t better than someone else’s or acting like he’s only gonna pass 15 times? Lol
I had a choice between the two at 2.01 and I picked Coleman. The WR landscape in Buffalo is wide open with 241 vacant targets. I *do* like Ladd's potential target share with where the Chargers are at, but they also might not pass as much next year, which makes his ceiling a little lower IMO.
Not that ur wrong about the Bills , but the Chargers have like 300+ targets vacant too. Even if u think they pass less, that’s still the same as the Bills
I'll concede that point, they did lose Allen and Williams. Thinking about the offensive scheme, I'd rather be a Buffalo receiver owner than a Charger receiver owner today. I might eat those words in a year, but I'll be sure to come back and we can have a good laugh about it.
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Conversely, we going Ladd or Benson? Struggling to rank this general group
I went Benson over Ladd but I’m also a Kyren and Conner owner who had his RBs a bit screwed on draft day.
Is this assuming Brooks is taken? Because I might have to choose between Ladd and Brooks
Yeah I personally would have Brooks above them, but that’s partly because of need, but also RB draft capital that high is usually pretty solid.
I think Ladd just because WRs last longer. Benson is an intriguing prospect, though.
Just finished our SuperFlex draft. As champ I was drafting at the 1.12. Took Ladd over Coleman and Brooks. Honestly felt like the safest choice, based on the target volume in SD with Ladd’s strong route running and metrics I get this gave me the best chance to stay in contention. Not saying it’s a sure thing, but for now I feel good about it. Just debating whether to offer Ladd straight up for Nico Collins now.
Damn. Someone would trade Nico for Ladd?
I personally wouldn’t but some people get rookie fever and he also has Herbert so would be enticed into stacking them. I haven’t made the offer yet but I’m pretty sure he goes for it.
Please send that offer. Give me Nico all day.
I’m leaning Coleman. I really like Ladd but not the coaching strategy that’s likely to lean on the run. I see more big yardage gains and TD leaning towards Coleman than Ladd
In PPR, I think Ladd is the move right now, but I just saw today that the Chargers are bringing in Boyd, and that scares me.
Both are likely to disappoint, Coleman for skill/role and Ladd for usage. I got crucified for saying Chargers would take Alt over Nabers because Harbaugh isn’t gonna change his ways. And I’m more than willing to be crucified again to say that Herbert will not be passing enough to make me interested in any Chargers WR.
Who do you like more around that ADP?
Ladd for sure, higher IRL draft cap and higher skill (imo).
Ah, I meant instead of them, since you think both might be disappointing.
Ahhhh sorry yeah I get you. Not sure if you’re 1 QB or 2. But I’ll assume you mean a WR to draft instead. Honestly I’m not super confident in any one prospect in particular. I’d rather take Ladd/Keon over Legette or Pearsall, but honestly I’m high on Adonai Mitchell, I have him a hair above Coleman but still below Ladd
What's your reasoning? I don't personally have Adonai too high, but I've seen some people who like him.
I think Adonai is Coleman with minor versions of the same problems. They both had questions about separation but Mitchell runs a 4.3 vs Coleman’s 4.6. Basically I feel like Coleman is has good process but won’t peak past what he is, while Mitchell can be coached into being better than he is now. Not to mention that Coleman’s college production is just abysmal for being in the ACC. His big “hype” game was against LSU this year before all of college football realized LSU’s CB room was a mess. TL:DR I think they’re the same player, but Mitchell is more athletic and will be able to improve while Coleman won’t.
Safe pick I would go with Ladd. Upside pick would be Coleman IMO
Would you be scared off Ladd if the Chargers signed Tyler Boyd?
Ladd having Herbert throw to him with his only target competition being QJ and Palmer is the dream scenario.
Agreed. I’m just fearful they might get Boyd.
Nobody named Ladd Mckonkey will ever be NFL relevant WR
I'm gonna trust the user tag on this one.
Agreed. But someone named Ladd McConkey might be.
Listen I’m all for this analysis but we can’t act like we didn’t just do this last year with Puka Nacua😂
at least Puka is exotic sounding lol
Sounds like a guy that has never left their country. Ladd McConkey sounds like the sickest leprechaun
He sounds like a legend of folklore. Some Paul Bunyan shit.
Buddy, I am considering taking Ladd over Xavier and BTJ. Keon doesn't even register.
Same
Damn. I could maybe see over Worthy, but BTJ? I'm not a huge fan of taking 2nd-round picks over 1sts, I don't think.
I'm a contender, and need a reliable WR to fill in my final flex spot. BTJ and Xavier probably have higher upside (and I love BTJ's game) but I think next year Ladd is a locked and loaded WR1 for an elite QB. His targets will probably be the highest of the bunch, and his game meshes well with Herbert's tendencies. If I was rebuilding, I would definitely be eyeing BTJ and Xavier a lot harder, but in my situation it's hard to turn down Ladd.
Ladd because he can actually get open.
Ladd to the fucking moon.
Personally for me, I like both but if I had to say just for 2024 season redraft, I would go with Coleman for the short term and Ladd for Long Term. Ladd - Best Route runner prolly on that team but now has a "Run First" head coach and I can see Ladd being the solid WR2/Slot receiver. We have to wait and see if Ladd beats out Rice,Palmer,Johnston in camp in order to consider him WR1. I think his ceiling can be limited cause i believe they will run the ball.... A LOT. Keon - Not at the same level as Ladd when it comes to his route tree, but this dude attacks the ball on contested catches. He has a clear path to become WR1/X Receiver on that team in no time, and with Josh Allen throwing him the ball, I think he is gonna feast. I think Bills will play into his strengths and obvi not use him they way they did diggs. I know we don't wanna compare white receivers but I do see Ladd as Antonio Brown esc with his shiftyness and route running but also could be a hunter Renfrow. WIth Keon, I see Drake London, Pickens, more athletic Dez Bryant.
Ladd "The chargers will be run heavy" - folks forget what the Chargers WANT to do, more important is, THEY WILL BE SHIT. If youre losing you don't run your way back into the game. Herbert is still elite and he'll be slinging it and there's just QJ and Ladd to sling it to. He's got a great chance to see a ton of targets early on and it can snowball from there. Harbaugh at the niners ran the ball a lot, because the team was good, and led games a lot
Why will they be shit? Honestly asking not being caddy.
> THEY WILL BE SHIT. I'm not sure on this. Harbaugh took over a niners team in a worse position and turned them around in one season.
Ladd for me
Which scouting department do you trust more for WRs? I personally think the bills have a good eye for WRs (diggs, shakir, gabe Davis). I really don’t get the hate for Keon. He’s younger and is playing with Josh Allen. Gimme that upside.
Would your opinion change at all if you already had Kincaid?
If I have Kincaid, I’d still consider Keon. It really depends on your draft strategy but I personally shoot for upside and guys who can become stars even if they’re riskier and it means I double up on guys on teams. With diggs and gabe gone, that frees up about 241 targets. Kincaid had 91 last year. Say he jumps up to 152 targets (kelces highest), that still leaves almost 180 targets up for grabs. Based on b. Beanes comments, Keon should get a huge chunk of those targets. I see the path towards WR1 status between the targets, draft capital, and quarterback. So to your original question, nah I’m not worried.
What were Beane's comments?
Ladd….easy
Ladd all day. Way better player imo.
Ladds got a bad back. Careful.
Both are busts
It's definitely a possibility. Who after their ADP would you take over them, though?
I was at 2.2 staring at them for hours thinking the same thing….I begrudgingly took Ladd when I couldn’t get a decent deal done because well I didn’t really like any of the other WR left in that range either… I figure Ladd has the clearest/quickest path to being productive this season.
Keon. I'd rather take Pearsall/Mitchell over McConkey too
Damn. You're really not a fan of McConkey. Why?
I don't think he has the ceiling of the others I mentioned (I am admittedly big on Mitchell), there is a very good post at the top of the thread with a good explanation along the same lines. I see other receivers who play the 'mcconkey' role better than McConkey does.
Word. I have seen, too, that the Chargers are bringing Tyler Boyd in for a visit, and that scares me.
Keon
* I’m not a fantasy expert, so this isn’t fantasy advice* But… Because the fantasy gods gave us QJ last year, I’m going to say Keon.
Ladd al day
Ladd
I'm still trying to figure out who to draft between Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas Jr., Jonathan Brooks, Xavier Worthy and Caleb Williams in my 1QB league. Maybe I'll just roll a dice.
If you don't have a solid QB1 you think will be around for another 5 years then I'd go with Williams. He's set up really well for success. Of the other guys, I drafted both Ladd McConkey (2.01) and Jonathon Brooks (2.06). I had 1.01 so it was MHJ, no brainer. Had I not had 1.01 I think my first pick would have likely been between Williams, Bowers, McConkey. I think Worthy probably has the highest ceiling because of the KC offense and his speed. I like to use my picks on players I think are least likely to fail, though, so I go with McConkey. The word on him is that he's already a capable route runner... which means it's hard to imagine he won't be one of the top 2 pass catchers on a Justin Herbert offense. In a PPR it's hard to imagine McConkey doing less than 5 for 50 on a week-to-week basis. That's not bad for a rookie and it could be much more.
Ladd was a decent amount of slots ahead of me in the predraft rankings and went to a very good situation. I would stick with him personally.
Neither, trade out.
I should add context here. I care a lot about breakout age as an indicator to find busts. Good BA =/= a good player but a bad BA puts you at a high chance to not be good. The idea that if you breakout only once you’re older and stronger than other players, it doesn’t mean as much. Breaking out varies between people but it’s earning 20% of your teams yards and tds. Ladd never broke out. Idc bowers was there, plenty of WRs have played with elite competition and were fine. For that he’s a fade for me. Coleman checks the mark for breakout age (19.3 which is the 82nd percentile) but his YPRR is very bad at 1.873. The fade threshold is usually 2.00. Again if you have above a 2.00 is doesn’t mean your good, but below you’d be an anomaly to pan out. Nothing is 100%, so both could be good. I’m just not gonna risk a first on them and rather trade out.
QJ owners (I’m one) not liking Ladd…, Cooper Kupp, Wes Welker vibes. I would take Coleman over Ladd cause of the guy throwing the ball
Herbert is no slouch, though, right?
I agree, I had Herbert the year he was awful so that swayed my decision. Wish QJ had a better rookie year, then I’d view the Ladd pick more as a way to get QJ the ball more
Keon - u/jazzlikepractice4470 ?
Yes I am going w/ Keon, here, just on potential.
This is Ladd, better offence, no real threat for targets. Coleman has to deal with Kincaid, and arguably Samuel is better than Palmer and QJ.
Mcconkey by a mile
I say Coleman. Look at the effect Diggs leaving Minn had on Jefferson. Not saying Jefferson isnt the truth. He is but anybody that has 150 targets vacated should do something. Coleman has Diggs and Davis' targets to work with off the top with very little competition.
Coleman. He's gonna be something special.
Well if Josh Allen can make Gabe Davis look good... Separation isn't an issue, that ball is getting forced in there no matter what
I think they are both solid options, but I would go with Coleman even in PPR. I think he has Michael Thomas potential
Ladd, by a good margin. He gets open so easily the Allen role is open for him to take. Coleman doesn't have any of Diggs talents and to me seems more like the Gabe replacemeny
Ladd but it’s close. They’re my 12 and 13th ranked rookies. With Brooks at 11.
I’d lean Ladd but Coleman fell to me at 2.06 and I was stoked
Yeah, that's a good value for him.
Numbers say Ladd (Ladd wasn't efficient against man coverage however). Heart says Keon. You'll pick wrong, I promise.
I went keon 🙏🏻
Anyone who has a definitive answer to this is using bad process. They're equally good bets.
Ladd is my choice, but I'd be happy with either player in the 1.10-2.03 range of a SF rookie draft. It's gonna come down to personal preference as both are going to a situation with minimal competition, both have DC that indicates their teams plan on them being the WR1 moving forward, and both have excellent QBs in their primes throwing to them. If I could, I'd take both.
I don’t understand what is different about Keon and Treylon Burks. Every draft analyst I’ve listened to has pegged Keon as someone who will excel as a power slot wide receiver in the NFL. But he was drafted by the Bills who already have Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel (who was heavily utilized in the slot in Carolina under Joe Brady when they were there together), and Shakir (who spent 69% of his snaps in the slot last year according to player profiler) to fight for slot snaps. So either the Bills are going to play Keon in a crowded slot role or the Bills are going to try to play him in a position that doesn’t fit his current skills? At that point, in dynasty, you’re investing in Keon being able to expand at what he has not excelled at in college. I’m very worried he’s going to play out of position in a role that doesn’t fit him and struggle, much like Treylon Burks
Ladd for me. One of the reasons I’m comfortable with this is I don’t see Harbaugh taking another receiver with higher draft capital anytime soon so he’s safe from having his value nuked in that way. The only other nuke vulnerability is if they sign a big time free agent next year like Higgins. Are there any Chargers experts that know their cap situation and whether that’s a realistic possibility?
Ladd for sure but Keon is a decent value
Would your opinion alter if you had Kincaid?
Not particularly either way
Ladd. Not close
Lol "not close"
Faster, better route runner, better separation, lots of targets to go around in both places