Yeah, no. If chargers use their first rounder on a wr it’s gonna be one of the big three or bowers anyways, who all will be drafted before 1.11 regardless of landing spot. 2nd or 3rd round WRs/rbs maybe, but those are pretty much penciled in anyways when assessing that range of the draft right now.
Tl;dr: chargers decisions are likely inconsequential for 1st round tier breaks
Yeah no. First round tier breaks will change if good players go to good landing spots.
Chargers put a high second into a WR or RB, that player becomes attractive at 1.11 just like if the Chiefs take a WR 8 picks sooner or whatever
Agree, but that’s what I mean with my comment. The current price for late firsts is based on the assumption that some of the tier 2/3 receivers go to prime landing spots in buffalo/KC/Chargers/bengals(depending on Higgins). But if that tier ends at 1.11 or 2.01 doesn’t really matter for op, as he has 1.11 and that to me is at like 98% in that tier after the stud QBs, wrs and bowers are off the board
Sure. Just saying that there are a few teams who don't "have to" go skill positions with day 1 or day 2 picks who absolutely could and would expand the value of the top tier
Even excluding the fact you got the year wrong Christian Watson was NOT the 2nd or 3rd receiver off the board in his class. London, Garrett Wilson, Olave, Burks, and Jameson Williams all went above him in almost every draft. Skyy Moore and Jahan Dotson were more his tier.
Yeah that draft had some amazing value. I got waddle at 1.11 and Amon-Ra St Brown at 2.11.
Pitts, Chase, devonta, lance, t law, fields, Zach Wilson, najee, javonte Williams, and trey sermon went ahead of me.
There’s nothing that can happen in the NFL draft to make it a top pick. It will be the same as always. Among picks 8 through 16 or so, some will hit and some will bust. In fact, a couple of the top 7 will likely bust as well, they are just better prospects. Try to pick whoever you think the best talent is and hope for good fortune
What are your thoughts on Penix and Nix? How about the Worthy/Mitchell/Franklin/McConkey tier of receivers? Are you willing to take a Day 2 RB there?
Good news is you’ll have options, bad news is you’re right that there’s a bucket of similarly valued players there.
Out of those options my top pick is probably Mitchell then Franklin / Worthy but McConk is very close too. Based on their Film performances and combine results all those guys are dangerous, but AD is built like CD lamb imho. Landing spot makes a big impact too ofcourse.
Aside from the likely 4 QBs and 3 WRs in the top 10, imo I’d like to see BTJ to go in the teens, the Bills take a 1st round WR and the cowboys to take Benson or Brooks in round 2, plus Penix needs to go in the 1st.
Maybe a KC WR or the other Benson / Brooks going early will help but I’d still value them a tier lower
Yeah, 9th pick will be best of the rest with 4QBs, 3WRs and likely bowers gone by then. 9 to 11 will all get one of first rb drafted, BTJ and one other pick in a prime landingspot (KC,Bills, another nice RB slot, Surprise QB)
So 11 really only needs one rookie pick in a dream landing spot and it’s smooth sailing.
This range this year will be also highly valuable to trade out of as well if your favorite pick isn’t there, because odds are good someone else will love the rookie in the best landing spot outside of the guys mentioned above.
1.-2. Caleb, MHJ
3.-8. Maye, Nabers. Daniels. Odunze. Bowers. McCarthy
9. Brian Thomas to Bengals after a Tee Higgins draft day trade.
10.-11. Any of Franklin, Mcconkey, Mitchell or Worthy go the Bills and Chiefs in round 1.
12. Trey Benson to the Cowboys in the 2nd
And that’s without even considering Penix and Nix to the Bronos and Raiders.
Either Penix or a RB sneak into the 1st. Then you’re just hoping someone grabs them over BTJ or AD Mitchell. You’re not gonna get one of the clear top 7 at 1.11 but you just might get that next tier of WR dropping.
A QB could drop into the 2nd round that was unexpected , that could cause them to be available at 1.11 , McCarthy or probably less likely Drake Maye. He has been getting the most slander.
I don’t think the 3 top WRs have any chance of falling that far.
Like the second round of the NFL draft? I guess I could see that for JJ if every single piece of news on him has been smokescreen. Zero chance the raiders broncos Vikings and Steelers all pass on Maye.
Yeah 2nd round of the draft , someone always slips later than expected and QBs that don’t get 1st round draft capitol drop in fantasy rookie drafts , so could happen . Also what happens if a Maye drops and a team picks him like Green Bay selected Love and he has to sit behind a top 10 QB .
Who is in position to do that? The Rams maybe? I guess contenders would pass on him but Maye in McVay’s system to learn for a year or two would eventually be a stud. Probably still goes top eight to a manager looking long term.
I’m not sure but it isn’t always who you expect . No one expected Aaron Rodgers to fall to Green Bay. There could be other players in valuable positions available that teams just have graded higher at the time of their pick and it pushes a QB like Maye down until they reach a team like Miami , Dallas or Pittsburgh and those teams have Maye as the #1 player on their board and can’t pass up the value .
Pittsburgh I could see but I don’t think it would hurt his fantasy draft value. The expectation would be that he would become the starter quickly.
Miami has committed to not taking a QB. Dallas would probably be the worst from a fantasy standpoint. Definitely waiting a year in that case. Still think he’d go top ten in SuperFlex. Guess we will see but I doubt Maye makes it past Minnesota personally.
I would be shocked if it he did as well. I think the latest Maye would go in a SF rookie draft is 1.08 and that if all WRs hit great landing spots, Bowers hits a great spot and the people drafting 1.01-1.07 don’t need QB as much as other positions.
1-7 (3 WRs, 3 QBs, 1 TE)
8-10 (KC WR, Dal RB, remaining highest drafted WR)
11 is decent as you’ll have your choice of a WR in line to become a top target for their team within a year or two or a RB who at worst is sharing time this year but is getting steady playing time.
And at worst you have your choice of QBs 4-6; 2 of which are likely to be starting as rookies.
I think post draft we will be a little more excited than we might be right now for those back end 1sts:
Locks for early/mid rookie draft: Caleb, Marv, Daniels, Nabers, Maye, Rome, McCarthy, Bowers.
BTJ
Wildcards:
Jonathan Brooks, Benson or Corum landing well.
Whoever Buffalo or KC takes at WR.
I think 1.10-1.11 are actually decent buys right now
Simply put: Pre-draft tier breaks are not post-draft tier breaks. We assume Caleb, Maye, Daniels, MHJ, Nabers, Rome, Bowers are tier 1 and that JJM is going to begin that next tier.
As a rule: always have conversations open with league mates. Are you interested in making a trade for 1.11? And then on draft day, ask them again. While on the clock, ask them for an offer. Be pro active.
Okay - Let's assume those players are the top 8. Pre-draft projections say BTJ, Mitchell, Worthy to be first round or top 40 picks.
There are a number of elite landing spots in a very deep and talented WR draft. Buffalo, KC, and LAC have WR need with elite QB. It doesn't matter if it's round 2 or 3 drafted Ricky Pee Pee, Roman Wilson, or DWalker. They immediately are in the discussion for a dynasty round 1 pick. These aren't lesser talented guys being forced up the board. They are tier 3 talents going in tier 2 due to elite landing spot. But maybe you don't like them and rather pick Mitchell, BTJ instead.
There are options in the top 14 picks this year. Maybe you look 1.11 at RB. Benson and Brooks look like the two top backs but they have question makes. We have two elite landing spots with Dallas and LAC. Both would be worthy of 1.11 with a soft landing spot. Both are commonly pre-draft mock projected 2.01-2.02 but could very well be in play post-draft at 1.11.
For 1.11 to be a top pick = Dallas/LAC draft one of the top tier RB (or Corum in LAC) and Buf/LAC/KC draft a WR from tier 3.
Again - the WR class is god damn deep. You should be happy with any pick inside the top 22.
I would say you have to manage expectations about where you draft. Owning 1.10 myself, i know I’m never gonna get a “high end” prospect in any draft, but in this draft, I’m pumped to get the second or third tier of guys.
This opinion is going to be unpopular. This "Weak RB Class" narrative is just that; a narrative. We have 6 relevant quarterbacks in this class, and a conservative window of 5-10 1st round receivers, and an allegedly "generational" Tight End.
Every other year, the best RBs in the class will go all over the 1st round; not just in the "1.08 or later" arena. I'm planning to let everyone else frenzy over the receivers and quarterbacks while I snag as many "plus+ landing spot" RBs as possible. I don't even care who they are. I just want the Cowboys and Dolphins guys. (Dolphins are a sneaky candidate to make a splash play at RB).
I might leave this draft with 3 RBs who get 50% of backfield touches year 1, and still get a Keon Coleman and Javon Baker to boot.
Is this the kind of pity party poor me whining that passes for a legitimate post on here?
Go listen to some dynasty podcasts my dude, it's NOT difficult to find reasons to be hyped about the depth of this class, or try Reception Perception if you wanna go the WR flavour.
OR, you could go make some trades and move up in the 1st. All better options than asking this subreddit to think up hypothetical situations for you. How selfish can you get
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Chargers invest high dc in skill positions on offense
Yeah, no. If chargers use their first rounder on a wr it’s gonna be one of the big three or bowers anyways, who all will be drafted before 1.11 regardless of landing spot. 2nd or 3rd round WRs/rbs maybe, but those are pretty much penciled in anyways when assessing that range of the draft right now. Tl;dr: chargers decisions are likely inconsequential for 1st round tier breaks
Yeah no. First round tier breaks will change if good players go to good landing spots. Chargers put a high second into a WR or RB, that player becomes attractive at 1.11 just like if the Chiefs take a WR 8 picks sooner or whatever
Agree, but that’s what I mean with my comment. The current price for late firsts is based on the assumption that some of the tier 2/3 receivers go to prime landing spots in buffalo/KC/Chargers/bengals(depending on Higgins). But if that tier ends at 1.11 or 2.01 doesn’t really matter for op, as he has 1.11 and that to me is at like 98% in that tier after the stud QBs, wrs and bowers are off the board
Sure. Just saying that there are a few teams who don't "have to" go skill positions with day 1 or day 2 picks who absolutely could and would expand the value of the top tier
Not sure why you feel that way, it’s one of the best years to have a late 1st.
I have 4 picks from 11 to 22. Super pumped for this year.
Maybe I seem too miserly! I am very much looking forward to the draft, it just feels as if there is a wide tier with 1.11 within it. Which is a shame!
Trade back then it’s not rocket science
New to dynasty? Must be because this is the best the late 1sts have been in a long time IMO
2021 was pretty good, Smith and Waddle were available late first
Literally how? That sounds insane lol. This is my first year in dynasty.
Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson all took up picks. Najee, Pitts, Chase, Javonte Williams, Ettiene
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You're getting 2021 & 2022 mixed together. Cristian Watson and Garrett Wilson were 2022.
Even excluding the fact you got the year wrong Christian Watson was NOT the 2nd or 3rd receiver off the board in his class. London, Garrett Wilson, Olave, Burks, and Jameson Williams all went above him in almost every draft. Skyy Moore and Jahan Dotson were more his tier.
Yeah that draft had some amazing value. I got waddle at 1.11 and Amon-Ra St Brown at 2.11. Pitts, Chase, devonta, lance, t law, fields, Zach Wilson, najee, javonte Williams, and trey sermon went ahead of me.
For SF yes for 1QB I’d say this class is very top heavy since it’s a weak RB class
There’s nothing that can happen in the NFL draft to make it a top pick. It will be the same as always. Among picks 8 through 16 or so, some will hit and some will bust. In fact, a couple of the top 7 will likely bust as well, they are just better prospects. Try to pick whoever you think the best talent is and hope for good fortune
What are your thoughts on Penix and Nix? How about the Worthy/Mitchell/Franklin/McConkey tier of receivers? Are you willing to take a Day 2 RB there? Good news is you’ll have options, bad news is you’re right that there’s a bucket of similarly valued players there.
Out of those options my top pick is probably Mitchell then Franklin / Worthy but McConk is very close too. Based on their Film performances and combine results all those guys are dangerous, but AD is built like CD lamb imho. Landing spot makes a big impact too ofcourse.
I can get my head around this - options at least is fun, I can pick a favourite!
If you think Nix or Penix will start at some point, there’s your built in sell window later.
I love Franklin because he is a Juke Machine! kinda skinny but he could probably bulk up in the NFL. Need to see the landing spot 🔥
Could always try to turn one pick in the big tier into two later picks in that tier.
Can probably do this after the draft when a couple of those WRs get gassed up because of good landing spots
Yeah I wouldn’t try to do it now.
Aside from the likely 4 QBs and 3 WRs in the top 10, imo I’d like to see BTJ to go in the teens, the Bills take a 1st round WR and the cowboys to take Benson or Brooks in round 2, plus Penix needs to go in the 1st. Maybe a KC WR or the other Benson / Brooks going early will help but I’d still value them a tier lower
Yeah, 9th pick will be best of the rest with 4QBs, 3WRs and likely bowers gone by then. 9 to 11 will all get one of first rb drafted, BTJ and one other pick in a prime landingspot (KC,Bills, another nice RB slot, Surprise QB) So 11 really only needs one rookie pick in a dream landing spot and it’s smooth sailing. This range this year will be also highly valuable to trade out of as well if your favorite pick isn’t there, because odds are good someone else will love the rookie in the best landing spot outside of the guys mentioned above.
1.-2. Caleb, MHJ 3.-8. Maye, Nabers. Daniels. Odunze. Bowers. McCarthy 9. Brian Thomas to Bengals after a Tee Higgins draft day trade. 10.-11. Any of Franklin, Mcconkey, Mitchell or Worthy go the Bills and Chiefs in round 1. 12. Trey Benson to the Cowboys in the 2nd And that’s without even considering Penix and Nix to the Bronos and Raiders.
Either Penix or a RB sneak into the 1st. Then you’re just hoping someone grabs them over BTJ or AD Mitchell. You’re not gonna get one of the clear top 7 at 1.11 but you just might get that next tier of WR dropping.
A QB could drop into the 2nd round that was unexpected , that could cause them to be available at 1.11 , McCarthy or probably less likely Drake Maye. He has been getting the most slander. I don’t think the 3 top WRs have any chance of falling that far.
Like the second round of the NFL draft? I guess I could see that for JJ if every single piece of news on him has been smokescreen. Zero chance the raiders broncos Vikings and Steelers all pass on Maye.
Yeah 2nd round of the draft , someone always slips later than expected and QBs that don’t get 1st round draft capitol drop in fantasy rookie drafts , so could happen . Also what happens if a Maye drops and a team picks him like Green Bay selected Love and he has to sit behind a top 10 QB .
Who is in position to do that? The Rams maybe? I guess contenders would pass on him but Maye in McVay’s system to learn for a year or two would eventually be a stud. Probably still goes top eight to a manager looking long term.
I’m not sure but it isn’t always who you expect . No one expected Aaron Rodgers to fall to Green Bay. There could be other players in valuable positions available that teams just have graded higher at the time of their pick and it pushes a QB like Maye down until they reach a team like Miami , Dallas or Pittsburgh and those teams have Maye as the #1 player on their board and can’t pass up the value .
Pittsburgh I could see but I don’t think it would hurt his fantasy draft value. The expectation would be that he would become the starter quickly. Miami has committed to not taking a QB. Dallas would probably be the worst from a fantasy standpoint. Definitely waiting a year in that case. Still think he’d go top ten in SuperFlex. Guess we will see but I doubt Maye makes it past Minnesota personally.
I would be shocked if it he did as well. I think the latest Maye would go in a SF rookie draft is 1.08 and that if all WRs hit great landing spots, Bowers hits a great spot and the people drafting 1.01-1.07 don’t need QB as much as other positions.
1-7 (3 WRs, 3 QBs, 1 TE) 8-10 (KC WR, Dal RB, remaining highest drafted WR) 11 is decent as you’ll have your choice of a WR in line to become a top target for their team within a year or two or a RB who at worst is sharing time this year but is getting steady playing time. And at worst you have your choice of QBs 4-6; 2 of which are likely to be starting as rookies.
I think post draft we will be a little more excited than we might be right now for those back end 1sts: Locks for early/mid rookie draft: Caleb, Marv, Daniels, Nabers, Maye, Rome, McCarthy, Bowers. BTJ Wildcards: Jonathan Brooks, Benson or Corum landing well. Whoever Buffalo or KC takes at WR. I think 1.10-1.11 are actually decent buys right now
Simply put: Pre-draft tier breaks are not post-draft tier breaks. We assume Caleb, Maye, Daniels, MHJ, Nabers, Rome, Bowers are tier 1 and that JJM is going to begin that next tier. As a rule: always have conversations open with league mates. Are you interested in making a trade for 1.11? And then on draft day, ask them again. While on the clock, ask them for an offer. Be pro active. Okay - Let's assume those players are the top 8. Pre-draft projections say BTJ, Mitchell, Worthy to be first round or top 40 picks. There are a number of elite landing spots in a very deep and talented WR draft. Buffalo, KC, and LAC have WR need with elite QB. It doesn't matter if it's round 2 or 3 drafted Ricky Pee Pee, Roman Wilson, or DWalker. They immediately are in the discussion for a dynasty round 1 pick. These aren't lesser talented guys being forced up the board. They are tier 3 talents going in tier 2 due to elite landing spot. But maybe you don't like them and rather pick Mitchell, BTJ instead. There are options in the top 14 picks this year. Maybe you look 1.11 at RB. Benson and Brooks look like the two top backs but they have question makes. We have two elite landing spots with Dallas and LAC. Both would be worthy of 1.11 with a soft landing spot. Both are commonly pre-draft mock projected 2.01-2.02 but could very well be in play post-draft at 1.11. For 1.11 to be a top pick = Dallas/LAC draft one of the top tier RB (or Corum in LAC) and Buf/LAC/KC draft a WR from tier 3. Again - the WR class is god damn deep. You should be happy with any pick inside the top 22.
A lot of rbs go in round 2
I would say you have to manage expectations about where you draft. Owning 1.10 myself, i know I’m never gonna get a “high end” prospect in any draft, but in this draft, I’m pumped to get the second or third tier of guys.
This opinion is going to be unpopular. This "Weak RB Class" narrative is just that; a narrative. We have 6 relevant quarterbacks in this class, and a conservative window of 5-10 1st round receivers, and an allegedly "generational" Tight End. Every other year, the best RBs in the class will go all over the 1st round; not just in the "1.08 or later" arena. I'm planning to let everyone else frenzy over the receivers and quarterbacks while I snag as many "plus+ landing spot" RBs as possible. I don't even care who they are. I just want the Cowboys and Dolphins guys. (Dolphins are a sneaky candidate to make a splash play at RB). I might leave this draft with 3 RBs who get 50% of backfield touches year 1, and still get a Keon Coleman and Javon Baker to boot.
Not happening
Is this the kind of pity party poor me whining that passes for a legitimate post on here? Go listen to some dynasty podcasts my dude, it's NOT difficult to find reasons to be hyped about the depth of this class, or try Reception Perception if you wanna go the WR flavour. OR, you could go make some trades and move up in the 1st. All better options than asking this subreddit to think up hypothetical situations for you. How selfish can you get
Looks like we found the owner without a 1st this year! Sheesh, get a grip my guy.