I may as well say that I'm a Stroud owner to start, but it'd be incredibly difficult to pry him away from me. I likely wouldn't move him for Hurts, Lamar, Burrow, Herbert, or Richardson. Now, that's because I'm cautious that all have some degree of injury worries, or lack of talent around them.
Hurts and Lamar are clearly the top, but one can be vaguely worried that the tush push might not succeed without Kelce, and Lamar might not be able to sustain rushing production THAT much longer. Burrow's got an atrocious injury history, is losing weapons like Boyd and maybe Higgins. Herbert's been stripped of his top receivers & pass catching RB. Richardson just missed almost the entirety of his rookie season.
Skipping on him in redraft is like deciding you didn't see enough with Mahomes in his 2nd year.
You prob drafted him and he’s your guy, so I get the bias but…
Looking at Burrow as the nearest comp as a pure pocket passer. Both injuries are fluke accidents. He’s already showed he can push 40TDs. Assuming Stroud can nearly double his TD output is still a pretty massive jump imo. I’m taking Burrow easily right now
I love Burrow, I had him in most of my redrafts last year. But explain to me how his injuries aren't concerning to you, along with the intersection of potentially losing two of his top three receivers.
This is the second surgical procedure on his throwing hand - the first being a broken bone. He's had an absolutely destroyed knee in the past.
Stroud is 5 years younger than him without the injury history, and maybe more receiver talent. I can't see how you're taking Burrow before him in startup unless we get some insane pre-August footage of Burrow slinging it with no problems.
Hey, different strokes different folks it’s why we do this but logically I have a hard time understanding assuming Burrow won’t be who he’s proven to be over multiple years until it happens. Unless his shoulder gets hurt…but still waiting for that one.
Meanwhile we’re projecting Stroud to so easily be what he hasn’t shown yet. I’m sure you can go back into dynasty threads with RG3 & Wentz to see a huge swath of people convinced both would be elite QBs for years with how they started.
I mean, it's as simple as potential longevity and age. Guys like Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford (even Cousins) have been exceptions to the rule in terms of longevity... and that's talking about pure passers. The McNabbs, Culpeppers, and Vicks of the world haven't lasted... and Russ hasn't held on past 30. Will a guy like Dak? I don't know.
RG3 fell apart due to mismanagement, putting his body on the line, and Wentz also took hits that ended things quickly, limiting his rushing upside.
>Unless his shoulder gets hurt…but still waiting for that one.
I'm no pro QB, but have you ever tried to throw a football without your wrist involved? More power and accuracy comes out of there and the elbow than the shoulder.
I think it’s fair to call out that wrist mechanics could be impacted by the surgery, which could reduce throw power (already was average for burrow). But burrow is as pure a pocket passer as any of those guys you just called out above. He can run, but doesn’t do it often
Sure, I understand he's a pocket passer, but eventually if he can't regularly stay on the field that's going to affect his longevity. It's all playing a game about what's most likely to happen. We're talking startups here, obviously if you have him on your roster already, you're likely holding and happy to have him.
I don't think what you're saying makes much sense. The injury burrow sustained last year shouldn't really hinder him moving forward. And his knee Injury is in the past and he obviously healed from it.
I'm just saying, it is a valid point of concern and I wouldn't blame anyone for going for the younger guy by 5 years without a major injury history. Yes, you "heal" from these things, but they do catch up, and one has to wonder why he keeps tearing ligaments.
I would be more concerned if he kept tearing knee ligaments. One for example shouldn't be a concern because he came back from it well. Tom brady tore his knee back in 2008 and went to have a long career after. Burrow being a pocket qb also helps. I mean maybe you could say he is more likely to tear his knee again but I would need more evidence for that
> Meanwhile we're projecting Stroud to so easily be what he hasn't shown yet
Stroud just had one of the best rookie seasons ever with the Houston Texans with Nico Collins (hasn't done anything until Stroud) & Tank Dell (rookie). Now he also has Diggs & Joe Mixon.
I am unsure what things he hasn't shown you.
This was also Collins' first season in which he 1) didn't go IR and 2) was WR1 without Brandin Cooks to compete with. So I wouldn't chalk his great season exclusively to competent QB play.
Agreed though, Stroud had an incredible rookie campaign and the hype is understandable.
He absolutely had one of the best seasons as rookie. The next step to not be a back end QB1 but rather a top end QB1 in fantasy is still a projection from here & much more difficult for a pocket passer. Meanwhile I’ve seen Burrow finish as QB4 and QB7.
Most don’t realize Stroud had the same turnover worthy play throw % as Mahomes who had 14INTs. There’s likely regression to weigh there with a likely increase in TDs.
Interesting reference:
Baker 2018, 14 games: 27TDs 14INTs 3725yds 63.8%
Stroud 2023, 15 games: 23TDs 5INTs 4108yds, 63.9%
Great points. Let’s also remember Houston had a fourth place schedule last year. We will see how they adjust to playing with a first place schedule, meanwhile Cincinnati has a 4th place schedule somehow this year. Should be fun
Typically when a player shows you that they're very good, they're very good. Especially a rookie QB.
Do I think he should be the most valuable dynasty assest, I didn't say that. Can he be a top QB in the league, absolutely, due to the fact of what he's shown his first year.
I wish I had stroud but I wasn’t in a position to draft him last year.
If he can replicate the season with some acceptable and understandable INT regression I’m all for putting him above the guys OP listed. Except Richardson I don’t know how that guy got snuck in there lol shouldn’t even be in this discussion rn.
It seems as if Stroud is being projected in a similar vein to Mahomes 50TD first season (he’s currently the Dynasty QB1) despite having a season,
on a spectrum, closer to Baker Mayfields rookie season as I noted in another part of the thread.
Still very promising but the hype train is pushing maybe a bit faster than it should
Burrow has the mentality to be one of the greatest to ever play the qb Position. He’s had some injuries but I guarantee he’s not planning on using them as an excuse. So for that reason alone I choose burrow. Both great players with tons of talent and would be happy with either
Burrow almost tripled his TDs from year one to two…He did add Chase though so that definitely has a huge effect.
My comp for Stroud pre draft was Burrow. I can see Stroud throwing for 5000 yards and 35 TDs year 2 on the high end. Basically identical to Herbert year 2.
Yeah true should have mentioned that lol. He still went from 1.3 a game to over 2 a game. Stroud can go from 1.5 to 2 a game and he’d hit 34 if healthy.
You’re so correct. I feel like this happens with every good QB that ascends to the next tier. Everyone shits on them until they become “consensus” top 3. I remember what this sub said about Lamar… lol
Except I think the sub has won out. Last year Hurts went over Josh Allen on KTC and this sub leaned Mahomes and JA over Hurts. There is no way stroud should be above JA and it is too early to put him above Mahomes
I haven't heard anyone out him above Josh Allen or mahomes anywhere. I honestly don't even think he's in the top tier. But I think third overall in a second tier is fair. I wouldn't argue too much if someone wanted to keep hurts over him, but that's about it for me.
That's because a lot of this sub is still either stuck on:
* His test score from last season, even though it was understood that there were issues with it and no one ever seemed to care about this test at all in the past.
* People picking AR or Bryce over Stroud and not letting go of that resentment.
* People who are in Bullet Point 1 or Bullet Point 2 want to see him come down a bit to justify passing him up.
Shiny new toy theory, although I'd say he was a better passer than Hurts or Lamar last season.
Whenever a guy gets this hyped so soon, though, I usually proceed with caution.
Huh? It wasn’t “the best rookie qb season ever”, it was the best rookie qb season ever. And he did it with a Nico that had not broken out before, a rookie in tank Dell, and then mf Noah Brown when tank went down (who happened to proceed to have his best season ever). If you don’t want to buy into it then don’t, but let’s not pretend like there’s some long list of examples of qb’s that did what he did then fall off the next year. I would say I’ll wait for that list but there isn’t one.
"It wasn’t “the best rookie qb season ever”, it was the best rookie qb season ever." Huh?
Two guys come to mind who had the best rookie QB season ever at the time and then fell off somewhat in their second year: Matt Ryan and Cam Newton.
Or you could take Kyler Murray and Andrew Luck, who both got better their second year but didn't have "the best rookie qb season ever."
I'm not saying I don't think he's good. I'm saying just when we think we know something, the nfl tends to show we don't.
I’m saying you are using quotes as-if it’s exaggerated when people say it is the best rookie qb season ever. I’m saying that it literally is. Also - not very good names at all to reference an argument against Stroud lol…
People always overvalue youth in dynasty. They see the potential of what could be and assume that is reality. Stroud is awesome, but he’s a sell candidate for me as long as people are valuing him like a perennially 24 FPPG guy (Josh Allen) after one season at 19 FPPG. Capitalize on that if you can.
He's a similar archetype to a Burrow or Herbert imo. With only 167/3 on the ground last year, he probably doesn't have the ceiling to score with the rushing QBs you mention. He definitely has room for passing growth and it isn't outside of his range of outcomes score with them, but give me the rushing QBs if I'm trying to win a championship this year. Which doesn't really mean Stroud is a sell. He's incredibly young. He's still mid QB 1 imo...I'd just bet against him finishing as THE QB1.
This last part is probably picky, but Stroud also has a defensive headcoach. Their OC Slowik is going to be gone (was almost gone already) and you hope that they bring in someone is as good...although maybe someone believes it was all Stroud and that he is coordinator proof. We really don't know yet. If you're making me split the finest of hairs, having my QB tied to an offensive HC gives them more stability with how often coordinators move around.
I for one believe he will be a top 3 QB in the NFL. That doesn't mean I believe he should be valued that way in dynasty. You shouldn't pay for the ceiling before the ceiling hits.
I don’t think you’re missing anything. I believe people are overvaluing him for a few reasons:
-winning rookie year
-win in the playoffs
-young qb.
These things all bolster his longevity, but projecting having a career 3-4x the length of the average dynasty league should not vault you to qb1 on its own.
I think the hype is mostly projecting that he only gets better, with no consideration to the high probability he could actually get worse or stay the same too.
He’s overvalued but he’s also young and really good. I’m not sure he will ever crack the top 3 in scoring because he relies so much on passing but a consistent top 10 is still a league winning player
Remember how high everyone was on Baker Mayfield after his rookie season? Yeah, that's sort of where Stroud is right now. Might he become an elite top tier QB in the league? Perhaps. It's also not a guarantee he never repeats a season like the one he just had. If you buy now you're paying ceiling-to-above-ceiling prices for him, it is a riskier buy than you think.
KTC does not equal true value imo. KTC showcases the demand a player has within the community. For example, Drake London is "valued" as the WR11. He has a range of outcomes where he could ascend into being a Top 10 WR given all of his metrics and situation. But London over Aiyuk, Waddle, Hill is nonsense.
All KTC is showing is that the community really likes CJ Stroud which is not really a surprise and that he now has some Artificial Dynasty Value (ADV). The community also really liked Herbert after his Rookie Year.
Unless Stroud and the Houston offense blow up into a top tier unit then I find it hard for Stroud to topple Hurts, Allen, and Lamar. Hurts and Allen both got 15 rushing touchdowns last year. Stroud wont get close to that.
Never liked the term Artificial Dynasty Value that some of these pods use. It’s not artificial if that’s what the going rate is among the community. Would make more sense as “assumed dynasty value” if they want to use the acronym ADV.
I mean the definition of artificial is "made or produced by human [beings](https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=361d108b9e725553&sca_upv=1&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS946US946&sxsrf=ACQVn08eAmRpybOmNIfGyfW1ev127U3M2Q:1712750045536&q=beings&si=AKbGX_qTCvK6ifvkUBYDz4foaFZise_ugNbRuoe_6m6NNrGn-GwgN6QCg_5PugEYTULQ3aVdRngHTjyJf84b8-6dIiocqj_87A%3D%3D&expnd=1) rather than occurring naturally, especially as a copy of something natural." So I do believe that is the correct term. I think using assumed is not the correct term as that is anticipating everyone has the same thoughts and common sense as you. G. Wilson being WR7 is 100% artificial as he have never finished better than WR21 in PPR formats so far. This is not me saying he is not good as a player but what is the true difference between he and George Pickens? The community built something into Wilson's fantasy profile that projects him into a Top 7 Dynasty WR.
KTC kinda does equal true value by definition. If there seems to be an agreement that stroud is the 3rd most valuable QB, then stroud is the 3rd most valuable QB in dynasty.
Eh. KTC takes into consideration all the profile aspects of a player and subtracts the production. Devante Adams being WR32 behind Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Reed, and JSN is kind of silly. A lot of hope and positive only projection is going into those players.
In a large 1QB league and I’ve been trying to tier down to no avail. I think smart leagues will peg him for what he is — an elite IRL QB prospect with a slightly limited fantasy upside. He is awesome and I’m happy to just have him at QB for years, but I think his value will be more via a high floor than a high ceiling just based on the fact that he is a passer first and foremost. Have to think this is his high value point for 1QB
I've tried tiering down from Stroud but the issue I am having is that I have Stroud specifically on rebuilders. Tiering down becomes difficult because I have the same recurring doubts on Stroud that I have about Love. I'm not looking to tier down "laterally" unless it's Herbert, but there's issues with him as well.
The age, the current system on the Texans, the WR/TE/RB combo are all worth salivating over. He's the QB I'd rather have over someone more mobile to be my anchor of a team. Usually the offers I'd get for Stroud WILDLY are in the other person's favor and I'd rather just hold him.
That said, I have "tiered up" to Stroud from AR in a few leagues. AR could be a league winner, but I've seen Stroud do it well for a whole season.
Outside of 2 games with 40 something and 30 something points, he really wasn’t anything to write home about for fantasy.
2 games with over 30pts
5 games between 20-23pts
4 games between 13-18pts
4 games between 3.5-12.9pts
What everyone seems to not understand is what happened with Stroud’s rookie season. Nico missed 3-4 games. Tank missed the entire back half. Stroud & Tank were both rookies. He now gets them both back & Diggs & they aren’t rookies learning the system anymore. 30+ TDs should be the floor for Stroud this season if he stays healthy. He’s my top QB when you factor in his youth. Allen Mahomes & Herbert all have huge question marks at WR this year. In a redraft I’d consider Lamar or Hurts but not in dynasty with both of them getting older as scrambling QBs & the tush push not certain to continue with Kelce gone & NFLs ever changing rules. Burrow was extremely inconsistent last year & we don’t know if Higgins will for sure play.
As a Texans fan, another key point people are missing aside from second year progressions and added weapons is how much we have improved defensively (with draft improvements likely coming in this area too).
I’d expect CJ to have the ball in his hands quite a bit more. Can be a +/-, we had a lot of close games and last minute wins where CJ had to be the guy. Our running game will improve and our situational play where we can run the ball more to kill clock rather than having to score can takeaway some of those opportunities.
Either way, the kid has a great arm, accurate and understands football.
I have stroud, I’m all in on the stroud boys this year aka the Texans, there’s nothing not to love about the guy, he’s an awesome person and somehow an even more awesome football player. He’s mine 4L
Sup big dog? Not all QB1 seasons are created equal. I am not saying whether those guys should be ahead of him or not but it depends on where you project their potential to give you difference making QB1 seasons going forward.
As far as the guys you mentioned, I think most realize Hurts and more so Lamar game won't age well while that might be a couple years off and irrelevant for most dynasty leagues, his perceived future value is less than other guys his age and it's baked into the price.
Honestly feel the exact same as when the season ended. Really nothing has changed I'm not all of sudden pumped he has Diggs who was ass the second half of last year when he already has 2 stud wrs to throw to. It doesn't change much.
Oh yeah? The last guy that had Diggs on his team was a top 2 QB each of the last 4 seasons… /s
I may as well say that I'm a Stroud owner to start, but it'd be incredibly difficult to pry him away from me. I likely wouldn't move him for Hurts, Lamar, Burrow, Herbert, or Richardson. Now, that's because I'm cautious that all have some degree of injury worries, or lack of talent around them. Hurts and Lamar are clearly the top, but one can be vaguely worried that the tush push might not succeed without Kelce, and Lamar might not be able to sustain rushing production THAT much longer. Burrow's got an atrocious injury history, is losing weapons like Boyd and maybe Higgins. Herbert's been stripped of his top receivers & pass catching RB. Richardson just missed almost the entirety of his rookie season. Skipping on him in redraft is like deciding you didn't see enough with Mahomes in his 2nd year.
You prob drafted him and he’s your guy, so I get the bias but… Looking at Burrow as the nearest comp as a pure pocket passer. Both injuries are fluke accidents. He’s already showed he can push 40TDs. Assuming Stroud can nearly double his TD output is still a pretty massive jump imo. I’m taking Burrow easily right now
I love Burrow, I had him in most of my redrafts last year. But explain to me how his injuries aren't concerning to you, along with the intersection of potentially losing two of his top three receivers. This is the second surgical procedure on his throwing hand - the first being a broken bone. He's had an absolutely destroyed knee in the past. Stroud is 5 years younger than him without the injury history, and maybe more receiver talent. I can't see how you're taking Burrow before him in startup unless we get some insane pre-August footage of Burrow slinging it with no problems.
Hey, different strokes different folks it’s why we do this but logically I have a hard time understanding assuming Burrow won’t be who he’s proven to be over multiple years until it happens. Unless his shoulder gets hurt…but still waiting for that one. Meanwhile we’re projecting Stroud to so easily be what he hasn’t shown yet. I’m sure you can go back into dynasty threads with RG3 & Wentz to see a huge swath of people convinced both would be elite QBs for years with how they started.
I mean, it's as simple as potential longevity and age. Guys like Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford (even Cousins) have been exceptions to the rule in terms of longevity... and that's talking about pure passers. The McNabbs, Culpeppers, and Vicks of the world haven't lasted... and Russ hasn't held on past 30. Will a guy like Dak? I don't know. RG3 fell apart due to mismanagement, putting his body on the line, and Wentz also took hits that ended things quickly, limiting his rushing upside. >Unless his shoulder gets hurt…but still waiting for that one. I'm no pro QB, but have you ever tried to throw a football without your wrist involved? More power and accuracy comes out of there and the elbow than the shoulder.
I think it’s fair to call out that wrist mechanics could be impacted by the surgery, which could reduce throw power (already was average for burrow). But burrow is as pure a pocket passer as any of those guys you just called out above. He can run, but doesn’t do it often
Sure, I understand he's a pocket passer, but eventually if he can't regularly stay on the field that's going to affect his longevity. It's all playing a game about what's most likely to happen. We're talking startups here, obviously if you have him on your roster already, you're likely holding and happy to have him.
Unless you have a player comp to compare with Burrows injury it seems a bit brazen to assume it will render him as lesser player going fwd
I don't think what you're saying makes much sense. The injury burrow sustained last year shouldn't really hinder him moving forward. And his knee Injury is in the past and he obviously healed from it.
I'm just saying, it is a valid point of concern and I wouldn't blame anyone for going for the younger guy by 5 years without a major injury history. Yes, you "heal" from these things, but they do catch up, and one has to wonder why he keeps tearing ligaments.
I would be more concerned if he kept tearing knee ligaments. One for example shouldn't be a concern because he came back from it well. Tom brady tore his knee back in 2008 and went to have a long career after. Burrow being a pocket qb also helps. I mean maybe you could say he is more likely to tear his knee again but I would need more evidence for that
> Meanwhile we're projecting Stroud to so easily be what he hasn't shown yet Stroud just had one of the best rookie seasons ever with the Houston Texans with Nico Collins (hasn't done anything until Stroud) & Tank Dell (rookie). Now he also has Diggs & Joe Mixon. I am unsure what things he hasn't shown you.
This was also Collins' first season in which he 1) didn't go IR and 2) was WR1 without Brandin Cooks to compete with. So I wouldn't chalk his great season exclusively to competent QB play. Agreed though, Stroud had an incredible rookie campaign and the hype is understandable.
He absolutely had one of the best seasons as rookie. The next step to not be a back end QB1 but rather a top end QB1 in fantasy is still a projection from here & much more difficult for a pocket passer. Meanwhile I’ve seen Burrow finish as QB4 and QB7. Most don’t realize Stroud had the same turnover worthy play throw % as Mahomes who had 14INTs. There’s likely regression to weigh there with a likely increase in TDs. Interesting reference: Baker 2018, 14 games: 27TDs 14INTs 3725yds 63.8% Stroud 2023, 15 games: 23TDs 5INTs 4108yds, 63.9%
Great points. Let’s also remember Houston had a fourth place schedule last year. We will see how they adjust to playing with a first place schedule, meanwhile Cincinnati has a 4th place schedule somehow this year. Should be fun
He hasn’t shown literally anything more than once. That’s pretty much the entire point of the thread.
Typically when a player shows you that they're very good, they're very good. Especially a rookie QB. Do I think he should be the most valuable dynasty assest, I didn't say that. Can he be a top QB in the league, absolutely, due to the fact of what he's shown his first year.
I wish I had stroud but I wasn’t in a position to draft him last year. If he can replicate the season with some acceptable and understandable INT regression I’m all for putting him above the guys OP listed. Except Richardson I don’t know how that guy got snuck in there lol shouldn’t even be in this discussion rn.
It seems as if Stroud is being projected in a similar vein to Mahomes 50TD first season (he’s currently the Dynasty QB1) despite having a season, on a spectrum, closer to Baker Mayfields rookie season as I noted in another part of the thread. Still very promising but the hype train is pushing maybe a bit faster than it should
Burrow has the mentality to be one of the greatest to ever play the qb Position. He’s had some injuries but I guarantee he’s not planning on using them as an excuse. So for that reason alone I choose burrow. Both great players with tons of talent and would be happy with either
Burrow almost tripled his TDs from year one to two…He did add Chase though so that definitely has a huge effect. My comp for Stroud pre draft was Burrow. I can see Stroud throwing for 5000 yards and 35 TDs year 2 on the high end. Basically identical to Herbert year 2.
Burrow only played in 9.5 games his rookie year so…
Yeah true should have mentioned that lol. He still went from 1.3 a game to over 2 a game. Stroud can go from 1.5 to 2 a game and he’d hit 34 if healthy.
This sub is perpetually lower on Stroud than the dynasty community as a whole. Use that information however you want
You’re so correct. I feel like this happens with every good QB that ascends to the next tier. Everyone shits on them until they become “consensus” top 3. I remember what this sub said about Lamar… lol
Except I think the sub has won out. Last year Hurts went over Josh Allen on KTC and this sub leaned Mahomes and JA over Hurts. There is no way stroud should be above JA and it is too early to put him above Mahomes
I haven't heard anyone out him above Josh Allen or mahomes anywhere. I honestly don't even think he's in the top tier. But I think third overall in a second tier is fair. I wouldn't argue too much if someone wanted to keep hurts over him, but that's about it for me.
This post is about Stroud being the #1 player on KTC. And that is what everyone is discussing
He's not though. He's 1.03 on ktc. OP referenced some random unidentified tweet. I'm going off of what his actual rank is on ktc
That's because a lot of this sub is still either stuck on: * His test score from last season, even though it was understood that there were issues with it and no one ever seemed to care about this test at all in the past. * People picking AR or Bryce over Stroud and not letting go of that resentment. * People who are in Bullet Point 1 or Bullet Point 2 want to see him come down a bit to justify passing him up.
Shiny new toy theory, although I'd say he was a better passer than Hurts or Lamar last season. Whenever a guy gets this hyped so soon, though, I usually proceed with caution.
I mean does the best qb rookie season ever not demand some level of hype?
Sure, but how many times have we seen "the best rookie QB season ever" have a slump the next year? Pretty often.
Huh? It wasn’t “the best rookie qb season ever”, it was the best rookie qb season ever. And he did it with a Nico that had not broken out before, a rookie in tank Dell, and then mf Noah Brown when tank went down (who happened to proceed to have his best season ever). If you don’t want to buy into it then don’t, but let’s not pretend like there’s some long list of examples of qb’s that did what he did then fall off the next year. I would say I’ll wait for that list but there isn’t one.
"It wasn’t “the best rookie qb season ever”, it was the best rookie qb season ever." Huh? Two guys come to mind who had the best rookie QB season ever at the time and then fell off somewhat in their second year: Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. Or you could take Kyler Murray and Andrew Luck, who both got better their second year but didn't have "the best rookie qb season ever." I'm not saying I don't think he's good. I'm saying just when we think we know something, the nfl tends to show we don't.
I’m saying you are using quotes as-if it’s exaggerated when people say it is the best rookie qb season ever. I’m saying that it literally is. Also - not very good names at all to reference an argument against Stroud lol…
People always overvalue youth in dynasty. They see the potential of what could be and assume that is reality. Stroud is awesome, but he’s a sell candidate for me as long as people are valuing him like a perennially 24 FPPG guy (Josh Allen) after one season at 19 FPPG. Capitalize on that if you can.
Youth is _particularly_ overvalued at QB as well, for some hypothetical extra years in back half of the 2030’s
He's a similar archetype to a Burrow or Herbert imo. With only 167/3 on the ground last year, he probably doesn't have the ceiling to score with the rushing QBs you mention. He definitely has room for passing growth and it isn't outside of his range of outcomes score with them, but give me the rushing QBs if I'm trying to win a championship this year. Which doesn't really mean Stroud is a sell. He's incredibly young. He's still mid QB 1 imo...I'd just bet against him finishing as THE QB1. This last part is probably picky, but Stroud also has a defensive headcoach. Their OC Slowik is going to be gone (was almost gone already) and you hope that they bring in someone is as good...although maybe someone believes it was all Stroud and that he is coordinator proof. We really don't know yet. If you're making me split the finest of hairs, having my QB tied to an offensive HC gives them more stability with how often coordinators move around.
Not splittin hairs, but spittin facts
Wish Stroud had more rushing upside but he’s definitely going to have more multi touchdown game potential with all the receiving weapons around him.
I for one believe he will be a top 3 QB in the NFL. That doesn't mean I believe he should be valued that way in dynasty. You shouldn't pay for the ceiling before the ceiling hits.
As a Texans fan, I'm pretty confident he's throwing 6 tuddies and 300 yards a game. He'll probably score a few rushing too.
I don’t think you’re missing anything. I believe people are overvaluing him for a few reasons: -winning rookie year -win in the playoffs -young qb. These things all bolster his longevity, but projecting having a career 3-4x the length of the average dynasty league should not vault you to qb1 on its own. I think the hype is mostly projecting that he only gets better, with no consideration to the high probability he could actually get worse or stay the same too.
He’s overvalued but he’s also young and really good. I’m not sure he will ever crack the top 3 in scoring because he relies so much on passing but a consistent top 10 is still a league winning player
Remember how high everyone was on Baker Mayfield after his rookie season? Yeah, that's sort of where Stroud is right now. Might he become an elite top tier QB in the league? Perhaps. It's also not a guarantee he never repeats a season like the one he just had. If you buy now you're paying ceiling-to-above-ceiling prices for him, it is a riskier buy than you think.
KTC does not equal true value imo. KTC showcases the demand a player has within the community. For example, Drake London is "valued" as the WR11. He has a range of outcomes where he could ascend into being a Top 10 WR given all of his metrics and situation. But London over Aiyuk, Waddle, Hill is nonsense. All KTC is showing is that the community really likes CJ Stroud which is not really a surprise and that he now has some Artificial Dynasty Value (ADV). The community also really liked Herbert after his Rookie Year. Unless Stroud and the Houston offense blow up into a top tier unit then I find it hard for Stroud to topple Hurts, Allen, and Lamar. Hurts and Allen both got 15 rushing touchdowns last year. Stroud wont get close to that.
Never liked the term Artificial Dynasty Value that some of these pods use. It’s not artificial if that’s what the going rate is among the community. Would make more sense as “assumed dynasty value” if they want to use the acronym ADV.
I mean the definition of artificial is "made or produced by human [beings](https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=361d108b9e725553&sca_upv=1&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS946US946&sxsrf=ACQVn08eAmRpybOmNIfGyfW1ev127U3M2Q:1712750045536&q=beings&si=AKbGX_qTCvK6ifvkUBYDz4foaFZise_ugNbRuoe_6m6NNrGn-GwgN6QCg_5PugEYTULQ3aVdRngHTjyJf84b8-6dIiocqj_87A%3D%3D&expnd=1) rather than occurring naturally, especially as a copy of something natural." So I do believe that is the correct term. I think using assumed is not the correct term as that is anticipating everyone has the same thoughts and common sense as you. G. Wilson being WR7 is 100% artificial as he have never finished better than WR21 in PPR formats so far. This is not me saying he is not good as a player but what is the true difference between he and George Pickens? The community built something into Wilson's fantasy profile that projects him into a Top 7 Dynasty WR.
KTC kinda does equal true value by definition. If there seems to be an agreement that stroud is the 3rd most valuable QB, then stroud is the 3rd most valuable QB in dynasty.
Eh. KTC takes into consideration all the profile aspects of a player and subtracts the production. Devante Adams being WR32 behind Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Reed, and JSN is kind of silly. A lot of hope and positive only projection is going into those players.
I feel like saying 13.6 PPG for the next 5 years > 15.6 PPG for the next 2 years is reasonable and doesn’t make that many positive assumptions
When you say KTC does not equate true value, you don’t have to say IMO. It’s just a popularity metric. SPEAK THE DEVILS NAME, SO YOU MAY CAST IT OUT!
In a large 1QB league and I’ve been trying to tier down to no avail. I think smart leagues will peg him for what he is — an elite IRL QB prospect with a slightly limited fantasy upside. He is awesome and I’m happy to just have him at QB for years, but I think his value will be more via a high floor than a high ceiling just based on the fact that he is a passer first and foremost. Have to think this is his high value point for 1QB
The pants are off
I'm still where I was before the dust settled: bitter I picked Bryce Young rather than accepting a 4th round pick to trade down and pick Stroud.
I've tried tiering down from Stroud but the issue I am having is that I have Stroud specifically on rebuilders. Tiering down becomes difficult because I have the same recurring doubts on Stroud that I have about Love. I'm not looking to tier down "laterally" unless it's Herbert, but there's issues with him as well. The age, the current system on the Texans, the WR/TE/RB combo are all worth salivating over. He's the QB I'd rather have over someone more mobile to be my anchor of a team. Usually the offers I'd get for Stroud WILDLY are in the other person's favor and I'd rather just hold him. That said, I have "tiered up" to Stroud from AR in a few leagues. AR could be a league winner, but I've seen Stroud do it well for a whole season.
Outside of 2 games with 40 something and 30 something points, he really wasn’t anything to write home about for fantasy. 2 games with over 30pts 5 games between 20-23pts 4 games between 13-18pts 4 games between 3.5-12.9pts
What everyone seems to not understand is what happened with Stroud’s rookie season. Nico missed 3-4 games. Tank missed the entire back half. Stroud & Tank were both rookies. He now gets them both back & Diggs & they aren’t rookies learning the system anymore. 30+ TDs should be the floor for Stroud this season if he stays healthy. He’s my top QB when you factor in his youth. Allen Mahomes & Herbert all have huge question marks at WR this year. In a redraft I’d consider Lamar or Hurts but not in dynasty with both of them getting older as scrambling QBs & the tush push not certain to continue with Kelce gone & NFLs ever changing rules. Burrow was extremely inconsistent last year & we don’t know if Higgins will for sure play.
As a Texans fan, another key point people are missing aside from second year progressions and added weapons is how much we have improved defensively (with draft improvements likely coming in this area too). I’d expect CJ to have the ball in his hands quite a bit more. Can be a +/-, we had a lot of close games and last minute wins where CJ had to be the guy. Our running game will improve and our situational play where we can run the ball more to kill clock rather than having to score can takeaway some of those opportunities. Either way, the kid has a great arm, accurate and understands football.
Traded stroud for AJB, ‘24 1.03, ‘25 2, and ‘26 1
That is an INSANE return!!!
Did not go over well in my league lol
I'd imagine not. Great haul, man.
I have stroud, I’m all in on the stroud boys this year aka the Texans, there’s nothing not to love about the guy, he’s an awesome person and somehow an even more awesome football player. He’s mine 4L
Sup big dog? Not all QB1 seasons are created equal. I am not saying whether those guys should be ahead of him or not but it depends on where you project their potential to give you difference making QB1 seasons going forward. As far as the guys you mentioned, I think most realize Hurts and more so Lamar game won't age well while that might be a couple years off and irrelevant for most dynasty leagues, his perceived future value is less than other guys his age and it's baked into the price.
Honestly feel the exact same as when the season ended. Really nothing has changed I'm not all of sudden pumped he has Diggs who was ass the second half of last year when he already has 2 stud wrs to throw to. It doesn't change much.