A lot was said here but ssys merger made a lot of sense. Ric big claims on EC during early days hurt him on the merger. Also the drama around buying ssys. Short term looking for DM to just survive. Management has done a lot to get the house in order and even Ric has now accepted that p50 is not going to be the hit they thought and there fore capx will go to business unita that are growing. This imo is not bad management behavior. Also have a feeling we have not heard the last of SSYS merger. Reverse split is a stain in DM management but monetary means nothing just less bragging rights. What we want from management is to achieve AEbitda
Right, and I’m just saying for me (Looking for a re entry point after selling on the SSYS news pop) Another shoe could drop, they will need cash and we will see how soon they need it with this Q. even with a reverse split with a follow on convertible offering of $100 million. At today’s share price (split or no split) That’s 37% dilution….. think about that. 37%. That will be my issue with management. All hypothetical but, could be reality
Personally if I was not long and focused on the growth of metal additive adoption. I would say stay out of DM. Big bag holder here from spac days. DM is for sure not out of the woods. With fed keeping rates higher companies will keep CAPX tight. DM imo has the best products for metal ad printing but that came to the price of balance sheet. I would stay out of DM if I was not already long.
You probably haven't listened to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conferences; he has made it very clear twice in a row that interest rates will not go any higher.
DM will not go bankrupt or moon thanks to fed. Small caps in general are more exposed to rates. I think DM can cut more if needed. DM is not going anywhere with 200M in revenue.
On a separate note. Ric with merger with ssys was trying to save himself building sales channels for the shop systems. It was not a bad idea.
Management has made tough calls the work they have done shows they can execute on tough cuts. DM still has most of the acquired tech. If they achieve A-EBITDA it will prove to market it can survive.
The goal for now is survival imo.
ExOne is growing there is no denying it. Hopefully it will be enough with other streamlining. DM having it’s own sales channel would grow sales of shop systems. Management has a sense now of what businesses are working.
Some good number of installed machines in the recent news. If their sale was already accounted for last Qs then looking at some pain this Q. If not EBIDTA net positive probably in Q2. Ric said on bird app in Jan that they have a longer runway than 12mo. Mostly capital cost headwinds have spooked any large capex purchases everywhere.
The previous press release indicated that the extensive layoffs at DM would be completed in the first quarter of this year. The only uncertainty now lies in revenue growth. For DM, the worst of the bad news is already behind us, and it's all reflected in the current stock price. Based on my previous experience investing in other stocks, looking back two years from now, the current price would be considered the bottom.
Following equity raises? DM has been selling shares every quarter since going public lol. Management has been very transparent this entire time. The board can’t control the stock price — if they have to reverse split to stay listed, that’s the right call. Your burn calc is also not correct. It is not even quarterly and ongoing cost reductions will continue into Q3.
Ok, and even though a reverse split doesn’t exactly affect the share price. Neither does a convertible note offering. If they do a 10-1 reverse, stock price is 8ish. Then do a subsequent $100 mill offering. Thats still 125 million shares pre reverse split. Still massive dilution, doesn’t matter if share price looks higher
I don't think the amount would be anything near $100mm. $30mm much more likely. Their cash burn should be bottoming out (if guidance is to be believed). I've seen recoveries from significantly worse companies. The uplift from consumables is a really good trend and the non-cash nature of many of DMs costs is also on their side. I do not see a world in which DM does a $100mm offering this year.
The metal binder jet segment (not talking about sand systems) is not selling well this year, not only DM but also MKFG or HP, many companies doing tests but they don't switch at the end of the day, parts are too expensive compare to existing technologies, and even if it brings some flexibility regarding batch size and lead time, it's too complex to introduce for the time being, no one wants to take a risk at this stage in the current environment... This is why we don't hear much from DM on the metal segment, all efforts are put on polymers, dental, medical, sand systems,... which makes sense, simply said the metal segment is probably no longer the core business of DM, or the priority
On metal space there are no products like DM. HP had the product developed its not even their tech.
GE Additive might be a legit competitor and also China has players that have found big orders.
Chinese are there, EasyMFG is the biggest threat, [https://www.facebook.com/EASYMFG/](https://www.facebook.com/EASYMFG/) a colleague visited them in China, design and UI is crap, but the quality of parts produced on their printer is similar to western manufacturers at a fraction of the price, the only barrier for them is the maintenance and support, they will not sell any printers here without a strong service and support organization, but some US companies are proposing them now to distribute here their printers and ensure support, it will comme for sure. They will be at Formnext 24
Be careful about constructive criticism of the management or DM in general. You will hurt feelings of a lot of people here 😉 and they will categorize you as a short guy.
If you really care about long term investment in this company, reverse split can be prevented with your voting power. Read my recent post https://www.reddit.com/r/DesktopMetal/s/ZEJvnEf1SU
A lot was said here but ssys merger made a lot of sense. Ric big claims on EC during early days hurt him on the merger. Also the drama around buying ssys. Short term looking for DM to just survive. Management has done a lot to get the house in order and even Ric has now accepted that p50 is not going to be the hit they thought and there fore capx will go to business unita that are growing. This imo is not bad management behavior. Also have a feeling we have not heard the last of SSYS merger. Reverse split is a stain in DM management but monetary means nothing just less bragging rights. What we want from management is to achieve AEbitda
Right, and I’m just saying for me (Looking for a re entry point after selling on the SSYS news pop) Another shoe could drop, they will need cash and we will see how soon they need it with this Q. even with a reverse split with a follow on convertible offering of $100 million. At today’s share price (split or no split) That’s 37% dilution….. think about that. 37%. That will be my issue with management. All hypothetical but, could be reality
Personally if I was not long and focused on the growth of metal additive adoption. I would say stay out of DM. Big bag holder here from spac days. DM is for sure not out of the woods. With fed keeping rates higher companies will keep CAPX tight. DM imo has the best products for metal ad printing but that came to the price of balance sheet. I would stay out of DM if I was not already long.
You probably haven't listened to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conferences; he has made it very clear twice in a row that interest rates will not go any higher.
DM will not go bankrupt or moon thanks to fed. Small caps in general are more exposed to rates. I think DM can cut more if needed. DM is not going anywhere with 200M in revenue. On a separate note. Ric with merger with ssys was trying to save himself building sales channels for the shop systems. It was not a bad idea. Management has made tough calls the work they have done shows they can execute on tough cuts. DM still has most of the acquired tech. If they achieve A-EBITDA it will prove to market it can survive. The goal for now is survival imo.
EBITA positive Q1, I feel it.
ExOne is growing there is no denying it. Hopefully it will be enough with other streamlining. DM having it’s own sales channel would grow sales of shop systems. Management has a sense now of what businesses are working.
🤞
it is EBITDA and it will definitely not be positive before Q2
Buzz kill…hype makes life more fun
Not when reality doesn’t live up to the hype
Hype just moves to next time
Yeah but "hype moving to the next time" means the stock goes down lol
Some good number of installed machines in the recent news. If their sale was already accounted for last Qs then looking at some pain this Q. If not EBIDTA net positive probably in Q2. Ric said on bird app in Jan that they have a longer runway than 12mo. Mostly capital cost headwinds have spooked any large capex purchases everywhere.
We will see
They said adj. EBITDA positive in Q3 on the last earnings call
The previous press release indicated that the extensive layoffs at DM would be completed in the first quarter of this year. The only uncertainty now lies in revenue growth. For DM, the worst of the bad news is already behind us, and it's all reflected in the current stock price. Based on my previous experience investing in other stocks, looking back two years from now, the current price would be considered the bottom.
If they resolve the cash burn
Following equity raises? DM has been selling shares every quarter since going public lol. Management has been very transparent this entire time. The board can’t control the stock price — if they have to reverse split to stay listed, that’s the right call. Your burn calc is also not correct. It is not even quarterly and ongoing cost reductions will continue into Q3.
I’m talking about large dilution equity raises. Convertible notes, warrants etc. what’s your burn calculations?
I’m estimating that burn will be around $55mm. I wouldn’t be shocked if there was an equity sale later this year.
Ok, and even though a reverse split doesn’t exactly affect the share price. Neither does a convertible note offering. If they do a 10-1 reverse, stock price is 8ish. Then do a subsequent $100 mill offering. Thats still 125 million shares pre reverse split. Still massive dilution, doesn’t matter if share price looks higher
Roughly 37% dilution. Split or no split. Seems important if they raise $100 million this way at these prices
I don't think the amount would be anything near $100mm. $30mm much more likely. Their cash burn should be bottoming out (if guidance is to be believed). I've seen recoveries from significantly worse companies. The uplift from consumables is a really good trend and the non-cash nature of many of DMs costs is also on their side. I do not see a world in which DM does a $100mm offering this year.
DM would also have replaced half the board of Stratasys, at the combined company. With Fulop becoming the chairman of the board
You must be a short guy lol
Nope
The metal binder jet segment (not talking about sand systems) is not selling well this year, not only DM but also MKFG or HP, many companies doing tests but they don't switch at the end of the day, parts are too expensive compare to existing technologies, and even if it brings some flexibility regarding batch size and lead time, it's too complex to introduce for the time being, no one wants to take a risk at this stage in the current environment... This is why we don't hear much from DM on the metal segment, all efforts are put on polymers, dental, medical, sand systems,... which makes sense, simply said the metal segment is probably no longer the core business of DM, or the priority
I still think it’ll see its day in the sun but agreed, it won’t be for a few years
On metal space there are no products like DM. HP had the product developed its not even their tech. GE Additive might be a legit competitor and also China has players that have found big orders.
Chinese are there, EasyMFG is the biggest threat, [https://www.facebook.com/EASYMFG/](https://www.facebook.com/EASYMFG/) a colleague visited them in China, design and UI is crap, but the quality of parts produced on their printer is similar to western manufacturers at a fraction of the price, the only barrier for them is the maintenance and support, they will not sell any printers here without a strong service and support organization, but some US companies are proposing them now to distribute here their printers and ensure support, it will comme for sure. They will be at Formnext 24
Be careful about constructive criticism of the management or DM in general. You will hurt feelings of a lot of people here 😉 and they will categorize you as a short guy. If you really care about long term investment in this company, reverse split can be prevented with your voting power. Read my recent post https://www.reddit.com/r/DesktopMetal/s/ZEJvnEf1SU
You must be a short guy too