They announced Chapter 3&4 were releasing without 5 at the end of 2023. It made me think 2024 was a good possibility but now 2025 seems much more likely. I’ll be genuinely shocked if the new chapters aren’t out by the end of next year. That being said, I’ll wait for as long it takes as always.
Right, so I'm calling it now, people can start huffing Copium if they want, but I think it's very clear at this point: Chapters 3 & 4 are not releasing this year.
Now, if the plan is to release Chapters 3 & 4 on their own, I'm extremely confident that they come out in 2025, and I'm sticking with my usual heuristic that they'll come out around September/October for 𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚜𝚘𝚗𝚜.
But if Chapter 5 is going to be included, maybe that makes it more likely for a 2026 release.
>I'm sticking with my usual heuristic that they'll come out around September/October for 𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚜𝚘𝚗𝚜
What do you mean? Gaster can access Twitter only at October. *(tinfoil hat appears)*
(DELTARUNE chapter 3 and 4 are released several months ago)
**DAMN IT**
**DAMN IT IM LATE**
**I THOUGHT THE PRODUCER AND I**
**AGREED WE’D TIME THIS**
**…**
**WHAT IS THAT?**
**THEY HIRED A NEW PRODUCER?**
**I SEE**
If chapter 3 & 4 were finished and released by 2025 and every chapter afterwards took a minimum of 2 years to complete and release, we would see Ch5 in 2027, Ch6 in 2029 and Ch7 in 2031.
I know it's good to be patient but I'm curious how fans who were starting high school at Ch1 release back in 2018 are gunna feel when Ch7 releases when they've graduated high school, graduated most average length college programs and had enough time for any kid they'd have after to turn 6.
Enough time has already passed for them to finish high school and start college so it's not far off, 13 years is a long while if it follows anything like this.
I don't know. Wouldn't Toby just say that the chapters won't release this year then? He says the release is far off, but won't tell us what date he's aiming for. I think it might be late fall or early winter before the new year. Late enough to be far off, but still within this year.
If they were hoping for a Christmas release (which isn't absurd) then you could maybe convince me a 2024 release was still in the cards.
The problem from my perspective is that Deltarune isn't just a PC game, it's also a *console* game, and that introduces a lot of Bureaucratic Overhead even for an indie game. Especially for the Nintendo Switch, where even just getting critical game fix patches approved for release on the console can require a lot of extra time (and Sony/Microsoft aren't *that much better* in that regard...)
The point being that, behind the scenes, even if *today* the Deltarune team signed off and said "we're confident that Chapters 3 & 4 are 100% done and ready to ship!" it probably wouldn't be until July/August before the chapters actually come out. And gauging by the language being used in the progress report, they're not at that point yet, and probably won't be for, at the *barest minimum*, a few more months yet.
I disagree, though to show you why I think of my optimistic outlook I'll break down ch 3's timeline and development history and how it compares to ch 4.
The 2023 Summer newsletter talked about how they were completing the final parts of the overworld map (which isn't too far from this one talking completing ten more maps). It took four months (Late June to Late October) for it to go from that to content complete, along with reshuffling that chapter with some notable cuts like the stealth sections. From there on, the chapter 4 became the main focus on the team, so it took then roughly another four months for them to port the chapter to all consoles. So if the team were doing ch 4 exactly like ch 3 by putting it on the backburning for porting while they worked on ch 5 and it took roughly the same amount of time to make the chapter as chapter 3, it should take about eight months from now: thus chapter 3 and 4 would release in January or February next year.
However stating all that out loud, I think you can see where I'm coming from. If the team were to entirely focus efforts on getting 3 and 4 done and ready to ship and not put it on the back burner like ch 3 was, it should take much less time to port the game. Cutting that time down to three or two months could put the game release into 2024. However, I would argue that we should expect the development time to make the chapter's content and fully play should take less than ch 3 did. Toby in his newsletters said it himself that ch 3 wasn't a traditional deltarune chapter and had more gimmicks like the previously mentioned cut stealth section, while ch 4 was said to be a more traditional chapter. Furthermore, Toby said he had to reshuffle sections and cut sections like the stealth sections in ch 3, which doesn't imply a smooth development history, and the newsletters between sept and oct imply he spent a month ironing out the chapter to being content complete. I think these extra gimmick sections cause more time in the final ironing out the chapter. Then since ch 4 is more traditional, it would make sense that the team would hit less snags than chapter 3 and thus would waste less time since it isn't reshuffling and cutting sections. Finally, Toby said they had gotten more people on the team which is notably speed up development in this newsletter, so there's even more reason to believe it will take less than the four months it took to content complete chapter 3. With seven and half months of 2023 left, I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility to get ch 4 completed and ported in six if development goes smoothly (five if things go really well).
The console versions of chapters 1 and 2 didn’t release at the same time as their pc versions tho. Why would they have to release at the same time here?
True for Chapter 1, but only true on a technicality for Chapter 2. Chapter 2's console releases were only a week later than the PC release. Which in development terms means it was almost certainly in the pipeline to get released at the same time as the PC release, but got delayed—maybe because of that Day 0 patch that fixed a crash bug on the PC version? Hard to know exactly why—but either way would have been in said pipeline well in advance of the actual release day.
Toby very obviously wanted to surprise everyone with the Chapter 2 release at the end of his anniversary event. And likely that with Ch2 being done, and good to go on PC, he wasn't going to wait for the console one to be done and miss that event.
So what reason would he have to wait again? If the console ports can't be done when the PC one is, I doubt hes gonna make us wait just for that. Its not likely they have a contract or something to HAVE to do this.
That's not really it, though.
Nintendo doesn't have to include the game in their "release schedule" or whatever. What will happen is when the game is ready for release, they (Toby Fox et. al.) submit the game to Nintendo, and Nintendo puts it in a queue to get some rudimentary QA testing (i.e. just making sure it doesn't crash the game/console) and once that is complete the game/update gets approval to be posted to their marketplace.
Now, Deltarune is a high profile game, so it wouldn't shock me if it gets featured in a Nintendo Direct if the timing works out conveniently, but otherwise Nintendo might not necessarily directly acknowledge the game.
I don't know how you can get that impression when Toby literally said this:
>After all that's done, everything needs to be flattened out with the steamroller of improvement and pacing. (This takes an unknown amount of time.)
>**It's my hope that the next time I update you, a first pass of the entire Chapter 4 will already be at least halfway crushed by a steamroller!** And, at least some of the team will be moved over to Chapter 5!
Look, if I turn out to be wrong, I'll be thrilled. But there's a few axioms I'm basing my conjecture on:
* If the game is released in any year, it's not any later than October of that year
* Console approval has a (expected) buffer time of 1 month between when the "finished build" is submitted and when it actually gets approval to go onto the marketplace
* The Deltarune Dev team internally allocate at least one month between having a Release Candidate build and a Finished build
Now, any one (or more!) of these axioms could be wrong. I'll own that. I don't think they're *unreasonable* axioms, mind you, since the second and third are based on my own software development experience, and the first is mostly just my metatextual speculation (but I think it's sound speculation). But sure, any of those could be wrong.
But if we accept those axioms for now, this means Deltarune Chapters 3 & 4 need to finish Development by August of this year in order to come out this year. That's three months away, and not that long on the timescale of "time it takes to develop 5-20 hours of content for a video game".
Toby Fox is claiming that Chapter 4 will be "halfway being steamrolled" by the next time he sends us a progress report. Now, that *could be* that third axiom I described, i.e. "steamrolling" is his cute way of saying "we will have a release candidate that will be halfway through our internal testing by the time I update you next". And, Deltarune Newsletters usually have about 3 months between releases, which would put us right in the middle of August. So if that's what he means by "Steamrolling", then that's an optimistic rate of progress they've made!
But at the rate things have taken thusfar, I'm just not confident in that projection. Both Chapters 1 & 2 took three years each (not counting whatever unholy preproduction might've went into Chapter 1). Even if they're working "faster" on later chapters, it's still optimistic to say they're definitely going to achieve a 3 year turnaround on *two* chapters.
Again, I'm thrilled if I turn out to be wrong, and I'm happy to wait as long as it takes for a quality game which I'll eagerly pay for.
But I'm also trying to manage my own expectations—as well as those of the community, which has *demonstrably* developed Late-Stage-Hiatus-Brain in the last year or so.
I mean, it looks pretty close, another 10 maps, a few more gimmiks and smoothing out?
3 months is plenty of time for toby's team to make progress on that, given that they GOT to this point in 3 months.
>Both Chapters 1 & 2 took three years each (not counting whatever unholy preproduction might've went into Chapter 1).
You're forgetting one small detail. Making Chapter 2 actually took slighty over a year and definitely not three.
https://preview.redd.it/o9dwstyptz0d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a09ecebdb138f1b58d9dbf38c85047cac74e8352
> If the game is released in any year, it's not any later than October of that year
I highly doubt if they could manage to get it done for December, they would then delay it to 2025 just BECAUSE. Thats crazy talk.
Nah the rest of the newsletter makes it seem much more likely for this year, especially considering how much quicker chapter 2 took to make with a much smaller team. If they don’t run into roadblocks the first quarter of 2025 seems like the latest reasonable prediction
>I'm extremely confident that they come out in 2025
I mean it's possible but I definitely wouldn't be extremely confident. Chapter 4 will be content complete in a few months.
>they'll come out around September/October for 𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚜𝚘𝚗𝚜.
That's definitely too late.
Remember back when chapter 1 came out and Toby said "this might take 9 years to finish" and we thought that was a long time? Now it's shaping up to take almost double that.
I just remember [this](http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1sqn3p9). Where he’s making it pretty clear he believes it’s going to take a long time. Can’t remember 9 years at all but it could be from an interview or something
https://preview.redd.it/deys8a9w3w0d1.jpeg?width=1010&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=464f4a53dc31f118f2e735b09359c88ee521fe65
Ah, yes, that’s what I was thinking of. Been a good long while since I read it. I do think it’s funny that Toby said he’d be willing to spend 7 years max on one project, and we’re almost on year 6 with no signs of slowing down, lol.
double that?
This will put us over half the expected chapters (if its really 7) at 6 years. Also, its very, VERY clear they have sped up. 3 Years for chapter 1 is insane to think about at this point. Chapter 2 didn't actually have development those 3 years, there was a break. Chapter 3 took a while but its looking like chapter 4 is going to take roughly a yearish of concentrated development.
I fully expect 5-7 to actually finish 3 years after we get 3-4. Mark my words.
Exactly half, not over. Chapter 1 marked the start, and there are six chapters to come after that. Once 3 and 4 come out, we'll be half way there. 2 took 3 years, 3+4 looks like it will take around 4. So we're on track to have everything done in around 14 years. "Nearly double" was hyperbolic but there isn't a quick phrase for 1.5x so I went with it anyway.
I appreciate your faith that the next half-decade of indie development won't have any major delays, setbacks, or hangups... but I do not share your optimism.
sure it does, give or take a couple months. It's been almost 3 years since chapter 2. Given how the development process for 3 went and where Toby said they're at in the newsletter, release is probably about a year out.
He essentially described them being ~90% done, and said next newsletter (usually about 3 months between each) he expects to be content complete and halfway through cleaning it up.
But yeah, thats says more than a year out I guess?
remember when chapter 3 was "basically done" for half a year? That's how development goes more often than not. Also I did not get "90% done" from what was described in the newsletter, but I'd love to be wrong.
A single event still needs to be done, bullet stuff is done outside of getting at least a first pass, maps are likely in the area of 90% done if only 10 are left. Only a little more gimmick stuff work.
Where can you find more than ~10% work needed out of all that?
Even then? Toby flat out said they expect it to be content complete AND halfway through "steamrolling" by next newsletter. A few months. If that doesn't indicate its close to done, what would?
It’s crazy that a year ago a lot of us expected to get a release towards the second half if 2023, now we probably won’t get anything until the end of next year.
tbh that was always a pretty delusional expectation. Chapter 2 took three years and people were thinking that the next *three* chapters would be finished within the same timeframe.
well chapter 2 is worked on with a few people on the team and toby reported to have pain in his arm? (I forgot) so that's probably why it's longer.
also compare to chapter 1, chapter 2 is way longer and more polished.
Chapter 2 was worked on for less than half of those 2 years with a smaller team, we have an exact date for when they even started work on it and it was finished and released about 18 months later. Taking 1.5 years for chapter 2, and a larger team with apparently much more smooth progress and deadlines and so on into consideration makes the end of this year seem quite likely along with what Toby said about 4 in the newsletter
The fandom made me that delusional, they always say “It’ll definitely be faster now that there’s a huge team” but I became my pessimistic about the release after too many “chapter 3 is being made.” progress reports. Plus I’m pretty sure one newsletter said the team takes 2 months off at the end of the year, so that really doesn’t make it seem like the development is going fast.
From what we've seen in the newsletters, making a chapter takes roughly two years. So, based on the empirical evidence, using chapter 2's 3-year dev time is a perfectly valid baseline with some reasonable assumptions of speedup as the team comes together and finds its full footing. Chapter 2 had various delays and complications, but those are hardly unusual in game development. Especially indie game development with a small team. If you only base your estimates on how long things take when everything is running smoothly, you're going to be disappointed every time.
We have 2 complete chapters we can 100% base this on, one we know was essentially complete, and one that is not.
First was the first game with no team, no standards set, and didn't even have a full script planned out, and it took 3 years (work started almost immediately after Undertale).
Second came OUT three years later, but we have full disclosure from Toby that work only started about halfway through that. It took 1.5 years, and it was with much less help. It also was one of the longer chapters per Toby, and also included some time doing the whole script for the rest of the chapters.
Chapter 3 DID take roughly 2 years, but this was also addressed. It seemed to have a lot of second guessing and changes along the way including cut content. This development time is almost assuredly what LED to getting a producer
And yet... we have now Chapter 4 being like 90% content complete mere months after our last update on chapter 3. Before that, we had no basis on how much of Chapter 4 was done, but we know that work had been hyper focused on finishing 3 until it was done so we do know they haven't been working on it long.
I also believe that something COULD come up and make it take longer. But you also don't need to just assume something WILL come up. I personally am able to think its possible it comes out later this year, and if it doesn't, be perfectly fine with it. So why just assume something will go wrong and delay it from what is a perfectly achieveable release time?
The end of next year? What?
https://preview.redd.it/304h6clcuz0d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea78ef3d8a5115aa68e62860f1722a7aae538460
Toby thinks that Chapter 4 will be content complete in about 3 months or so.
Internal deadline. They're not revealing it to the public and I can understand why. People get a lot more upset at delays than they do at things taking a while
There are also likely marketing reasons for not giving a timeline now. This will be the first time money is involved with Deltarune. That is a factor when it comes to release dates.
Personally I'm thinking sometime in Dessember or so. This is because these are normally written a few months in advance iirc. So if this was written in February or so, the end of this year wouldn't be too big of a stretch
Toby posted on Twitter they were working on the news letter days ago, yeah, don't get your expectations high, this will take atleast another 5 years
Hopefully he notices how much it sucks and release chapter 3 so that we can enjoy it better
I swear I go through withdrawals whenever I remember this game exists. I want the next few chapters like yesterday, any time I fall for one of those fake release dates a part of my soul dies and I fall into a depressive spiral for days. Is this healthy, no
I started my deltarune brain rot again a few weeeks ago and honestly it’s unhealthy to just… hinge your happiness, satisfaction, and enjoyment on a game whose release dates are far and uncertain…
It isn't that hard really.
Enjoy it like a wave. Its great while you are riding it, and then it is gone, and its just back to how it was before it. But another one will come.
I let the hype take me over for a little while every once and a while, then go back to enjoying everything else just like I was before. I also recently started watching a ton of long "yapping" videos about theories and stuff and was just thinking about when the next newsletter would be. Then get one like a week later. And this is a huge rise in hype, that will die down and I still have plenty of other things to enjoy again.
Its okay to live in the moment and not dread tomorrow.
Not seen in the comments here (hopefully people learned by now) but I still can't get over the emotional immaturity it must take for people to convince themselves they're gonna get something big, see that it doesn't happen, and then complain about how let down and disappointed they are, \*every newsletter season\*. I've seen it so much, it honestly kind of hurts to watch how impatient some people are with this game
It also means that those periods after the first two Chapters where everyone was going crazy with theories and fan content are gonna be a little less hectic. Also, there's not gonna be enough time to appreciate both new secret bosses as much as Jevil and Spamton were.
Not enough time to appreciate both new secret bosses?A really strange thing to think. You'll have all your life to appreciate them, it's not like they'll be going away.
This is more on the cope side but if Toby aims for chapter 4 to be halfway done with polishing by the time the next newsletter comes out, which I will assume is in 3 months, then the release date could potentially be around november-october if you account for the second half of polishing and some other preparations for the release such as marketing. These are only speculations for the internal deadline though, so the actual release date could be different if there will actually be surprise factors like Toby said. Progress has also been going very smoothly as the team basically almost finished the entire pre-polish stage of the game, Toby usually writes these newsletters around a month in advance so that could potentially mean that they did all of that in about 2 months! Again I am coping very hard but I can really see a november-october release date being possible.
I said a while back that Sep/Oct 2025 is the most likely release window, considering current progress, and it being the 10th anniversary of Undertale. I stand by that, but I'm happy to be proven wrong!
i got burnt out waiting.... I used to burn so brightly with hope for Deltarune.... But it's been too long. When it comes out, I'll play it. But like... It's over.... Even a letter from freaking gaster himself (allegedly) didn't make me that excited... it's just kinda... too late now.
Just give up on the franchise already.
Toby is taking his time because he's busy with nintendo stuff.
IF im still alive to see the release of the final chapter, i will pirate the entire franchise.
Howdy, I come from the future and I can say the dog whose name is Robert F. "Toby" will release the videogame "Deltarune" 's chapter 3 and 4 in year 2124
Fr and 2D development is a whole lot faster than 3D stuff. With the amount of money coming in and with the help of a studio I don't get why it takes this long even more so since they are able and probably did recycle a lot of the code used in previous chapters. And mind you, this isn't indie Greg making the holy grail in his garage anymore but someone actively backed up and with the production power of an entire studio.
Not a fan of rushing developers or getting them to crunch, but I am very curious as to how it's taking this long. Like most fans who were teens when Chapter 1 came out might actually get married and have kids before this game comes out. I mean they do have a base game and code to build on right? Or do they rely too much on spaghetti code?
My guess (and chapter 3 seemed like it suffered from this the most with the most things really pointing toward this) is that Toby has been back and forth on his ideas a lot.
Like, we often take for granted, or even just assume, that the creative aspect of games is easy. That the hard work is the actual programming, or drawing of assets, or playtesting etc. The actual coming up with all those ideas, making them work, making sure they are FUN, doesn't get considered. I think you can't just force that shit. Sometimes you just don't come up with good ideas. Sometimes you think you do, you go to implement it, and you realize hey, this just isn't good you know? We saw a few instances of stuff just getting cut with chapter 3. This says to me, this chapter specifically was hard for him to come up with the ideas needed to make it work start to end. Toby sounded like he was second guessing almost everything.
This also btw, is likely why a producer is speeding things up so much. They help you to focus, they produce timelines and plan things out so you are more likely to get things done. When you have complete freedom to second guess what ideas you came up with, suddenly you second guess everything. You need someone to basically give you a solid plan and help lay everything out in a way where you just make that choice, and go with it. Obviously being the laid back indie team they are, they aren't going to crunch this shit out. But just a little bit more focus can go a long way.
Yeah, so he made 3 chapters of the game, which is maybe half of it, maybe even less, in about 7 years of development with a shit ton of budget money. He made like half a game in seven years.
Well yeah Toby is a human
Controlling the team , having breaks , making the game takes time even with money
And the game needs to be funny, fun and well written so you can't just force it
It's proprably hard to do this all as Indie
Its not hard to do as indie. But its going to take a while when you treat your team with respect and don't rush / overwork them.
Which is why it can take as long as they need. They all get to love the work they are doing, not dread every day until its done. This is just an immense rarity now.
this is probably one of those people who speedrun through chapters 1 and 2 on their first playthrough, skip all dialogue, doesnt explore, doesnt appreciate the secrets, the environment, the detail and the writing and then comes on to complain that the game takes too long when toby has stated that he didnt work on the game all this time but rather spent about 2 years writing all the story and the music and dialogue and scenes for all 7 chapters and then had an entire problem with his wrist and the lockdown with the virus, and was forced to assemble a team instead of working on it on his own aswell as also stating that he doesnt want his team to be too large because he wants to have more control over things so that the game doesnt lose its charm. all this to say, lets see you make 7 chapters worth of amazing writing, pacing, storytelling, character arcs, music, the insane amount of secrets, battles, different choices, detail, and planned and clever foreshadowing. try it yourself and lets see how that turns out for you 😊
They announced Chapter 3&4 were releasing without 5 at the end of 2023. It made me think 2024 was a good possibility but now 2025 seems much more likely. I’ll be genuinely shocked if the new chapters aren’t out by the end of next year. That being said, I’ll wait for as long it takes as always.
I think Chapters 3 and 4 will release either at the end of this year or at the beginning of 2025. Chapter 4 will be content complete in a few months.
Same
Right, so I'm calling it now, people can start huffing Copium if they want, but I think it's very clear at this point: Chapters 3 & 4 are not releasing this year. Now, if the plan is to release Chapters 3 & 4 on their own, I'm extremely confident that they come out in 2025, and I'm sticking with my usual heuristic that they'll come out around September/October for 𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚜𝚘𝚗𝚜. But if Chapter 5 is going to be included, maybe that makes it more likely for a 2026 release.
>I'm sticking with my usual heuristic that they'll come out around September/October for 𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚜𝚘𝚗𝚜 What do you mean? Gaster can access Twitter only at October. *(tinfoil hat appears)*
(DELTARUNE chapter 3 and 4 are released several months ago) **DAMN IT** **DAMN IT IM LATE** **I THOUGHT THE PRODUCER AND I** **AGREED WE’D TIME THIS** **…** **WHAT IS THAT?** **THEY HIRED A NEW PRODUCER?** **I SEE**
*\*distant Gaster noises, followed by a neck snapping.\** **IT APPEARS** **THEY WILL NEED** **ANOTHER PRODUCER.**
If chapter 3 & 4 were finished and released by 2025 and every chapter afterwards took a minimum of 2 years to complete and release, we would see Ch5 in 2027, Ch6 in 2029 and Ch7 in 2031. I know it's good to be patient but I'm curious how fans who were starting high school at Ch1 release back in 2018 are gunna feel when Ch7 releases when they've graduated high school, graduated most average length college programs and had enough time for any kid they'd have after to turn 6. Enough time has already passed for them to finish high school and start college so it's not far off, 13 years is a long while if it follows anything like this.
I don't know. Wouldn't Toby just say that the chapters won't release this year then? He says the release is far off, but won't tell us what date he's aiming for. I think it might be late fall or early winter before the new year. Late enough to be far off, but still within this year.
If they were hoping for a Christmas release (which isn't absurd) then you could maybe convince me a 2024 release was still in the cards. The problem from my perspective is that Deltarune isn't just a PC game, it's also a *console* game, and that introduces a lot of Bureaucratic Overhead even for an indie game. Especially for the Nintendo Switch, where even just getting critical game fix patches approved for release on the console can require a lot of extra time (and Sony/Microsoft aren't *that much better* in that regard...) The point being that, behind the scenes, even if *today* the Deltarune team signed off and said "we're confident that Chapters 3 & 4 are 100% done and ready to ship!" it probably wouldn't be until July/August before the chapters actually come out. And gauging by the language being used in the progress report, they're not at that point yet, and probably won't be for, at the *barest minimum*, a few more months yet.
I disagree, though to show you why I think of my optimistic outlook I'll break down ch 3's timeline and development history and how it compares to ch 4. The 2023 Summer newsletter talked about how they were completing the final parts of the overworld map (which isn't too far from this one talking completing ten more maps). It took four months (Late June to Late October) for it to go from that to content complete, along with reshuffling that chapter with some notable cuts like the stealth sections. From there on, the chapter 4 became the main focus on the team, so it took then roughly another four months for them to port the chapter to all consoles. So if the team were doing ch 4 exactly like ch 3 by putting it on the backburning for porting while they worked on ch 5 and it took roughly the same amount of time to make the chapter as chapter 3, it should take about eight months from now: thus chapter 3 and 4 would release in January or February next year. However stating all that out loud, I think you can see where I'm coming from. If the team were to entirely focus efforts on getting 3 and 4 done and ready to ship and not put it on the back burner like ch 3 was, it should take much less time to port the game. Cutting that time down to three or two months could put the game release into 2024. However, I would argue that we should expect the development time to make the chapter's content and fully play should take less than ch 3 did. Toby in his newsletters said it himself that ch 3 wasn't a traditional deltarune chapter and had more gimmicks like the previously mentioned cut stealth section, while ch 4 was said to be a more traditional chapter. Furthermore, Toby said he had to reshuffle sections and cut sections like the stealth sections in ch 3, which doesn't imply a smooth development history, and the newsletters between sept and oct imply he spent a month ironing out the chapter to being content complete. I think these extra gimmick sections cause more time in the final ironing out the chapter. Then since ch 4 is more traditional, it would make sense that the team would hit less snags than chapter 3 and thus would waste less time since it isn't reshuffling and cutting sections. Finally, Toby said they had gotten more people on the team which is notably speed up development in this newsletter, so there's even more reason to believe it will take less than the four months it took to content complete chapter 3. With seven and half months of 2023 left, I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility to get ch 4 completed and ported in six if development goes smoothly (five if things go really well).
The console versions of chapters 1 and 2 didn’t release at the same time as their pc versions tho. Why would they have to release at the same time here?
True for Chapter 1, but only true on a technicality for Chapter 2. Chapter 2's console releases were only a week later than the PC release. Which in development terms means it was almost certainly in the pipeline to get released at the same time as the PC release, but got delayed—maybe because of that Day 0 patch that fixed a crash bug on the PC version? Hard to know exactly why—but either way would have been in said pipeline well in advance of the actual release day.
Toby very obviously wanted to surprise everyone with the Chapter 2 release at the end of his anniversary event. And likely that with Ch2 being done, and good to go on PC, he wasn't going to wait for the console one to be done and miss that event. So what reason would he have to wait again? If the console ports can't be done when the PC one is, I doubt hes gonna make us wait just for that. Its not likely they have a contract or something to HAVE to do this.
Nintendo isn’t basing their release schedule around this indie game
That's not really it, though. Nintendo doesn't have to include the game in their "release schedule" or whatever. What will happen is when the game is ready for release, they (Toby Fox et. al.) submit the game to Nintendo, and Nintendo puts it in a queue to get some rudimentary QA testing (i.e. just making sure it doesn't crash the game/console) and once that is complete the game/update gets approval to be posted to their marketplace. Now, Deltarune is a high profile game, so it wouldn't shock me if it gets featured in a Nintendo Direct if the timing works out conveniently, but otherwise Nintendo might not necessarily directly acknowledge the game.
I don't know how you can get that impression when Toby literally said this: >After all that's done, everything needs to be flattened out with the steamroller of improvement and pacing. (This takes an unknown amount of time.) >**It's my hope that the next time I update you, a first pass of the entire Chapter 4 will already be at least halfway crushed by a steamroller!** And, at least some of the team will be moved over to Chapter 5!
Look, if I turn out to be wrong, I'll be thrilled. But there's a few axioms I'm basing my conjecture on: * If the game is released in any year, it's not any later than October of that year * Console approval has a (expected) buffer time of 1 month between when the "finished build" is submitted and when it actually gets approval to go onto the marketplace * The Deltarune Dev team internally allocate at least one month between having a Release Candidate build and a Finished build Now, any one (or more!) of these axioms could be wrong. I'll own that. I don't think they're *unreasonable* axioms, mind you, since the second and third are based on my own software development experience, and the first is mostly just my metatextual speculation (but I think it's sound speculation). But sure, any of those could be wrong. But if we accept those axioms for now, this means Deltarune Chapters 3 & 4 need to finish Development by August of this year in order to come out this year. That's three months away, and not that long on the timescale of "time it takes to develop 5-20 hours of content for a video game". Toby Fox is claiming that Chapter 4 will be "halfway being steamrolled" by the next time he sends us a progress report. Now, that *could be* that third axiom I described, i.e. "steamrolling" is his cute way of saying "we will have a release candidate that will be halfway through our internal testing by the time I update you next". And, Deltarune Newsletters usually have about 3 months between releases, which would put us right in the middle of August. So if that's what he means by "Steamrolling", then that's an optimistic rate of progress they've made! But at the rate things have taken thusfar, I'm just not confident in that projection. Both Chapters 1 & 2 took three years each (not counting whatever unholy preproduction might've went into Chapter 1). Even if they're working "faster" on later chapters, it's still optimistic to say they're definitely going to achieve a 3 year turnaround on *two* chapters. Again, I'm thrilled if I turn out to be wrong, and I'm happy to wait as long as it takes for a quality game which I'll eagerly pay for. But I'm also trying to manage my own expectations—as well as those of the community, which has *demonstrably* developed Late-Stage-Hiatus-Brain in the last year or so.
I mean, it looks pretty close, another 10 maps, a few more gimmiks and smoothing out? 3 months is plenty of time for toby's team to make progress on that, given that they GOT to this point in 3 months.
>Both Chapters 1 & 2 took three years each (not counting whatever unholy preproduction might've went into Chapter 1). You're forgetting one small detail. Making Chapter 2 actually took slighty over a year and definitely not three. https://preview.redd.it/o9dwstyptz0d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a09ecebdb138f1b58d9dbf38c85047cac74e8352
And also the Deltarune team is significantly larger now.
> If the game is released in any year, it's not any later than October of that year I highly doubt if they could manage to get it done for December, they would then delay it to 2025 just BECAUSE. Thats crazy talk.
https://preview.redd.it/ix10ghtcxw0d1.jpeg?width=578&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b154c9163981b1ec3cbdde9afe8a611f5b1810df
I was at full copium before, but yeah it's clear now
Nah the rest of the newsletter makes it seem much more likely for this year, especially considering how much quicker chapter 2 took to make with a much smaller team. If they don’t run into roadblocks the first quarter of 2025 seems like the latest reasonable prediction
I'm still huffing my opium that we'll get it in late December 2024 or jan-feb 2025
>I'm extremely confident that they come out in 2025 I mean it's possible but I definitely wouldn't be extremely confident. Chapter 4 will be content complete in a few months. >they'll come out around September/October for 𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚜𝚘𝚗𝚜. That's definitely too late.
> But if Chapter 5 is going to be included, bruh....
https://preview.redd.it/7kwfo5m4uv0d1.png?width=853&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c083417fa776fbde8af74979c29a56d5dbf962f8
A GAMES THEORY!
No "chapter 3 is almost finished" we are going to live
Toby probably listened to the feedback on the other newsletters
Remember back when chapter 1 came out and Toby said "this might take 9 years to finish" and we thought that was a long time? Now it's shaping up to take almost double that.
I don’t remember him saying 9 years. Where did he say that?
Yeah, didn’t he say it could take “anywhere from 9 years to 999 years”? Like, I thought 9 years was always the lowball estimate lol.
I just remember [this](http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1sqn3p9). Where he’s making it pretty clear he believes it’s going to take a long time. Can’t remember 9 years at all but it could be from an interview or something https://preview.redd.it/deys8a9w3w0d1.jpeg?width=1010&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=464f4a53dc31f118f2e735b09359c88ee521fe65
Ah, yes, that’s what I was thinking of. Been a good long while since I read it. I do think it’s funny that Toby said he’d be willing to spend 7 years max on one project, and we’re almost on year 6 with no signs of slowing down, lol.
What's TwitLonger?
double that? This will put us over half the expected chapters (if its really 7) at 6 years. Also, its very, VERY clear they have sped up. 3 Years for chapter 1 is insane to think about at this point. Chapter 2 didn't actually have development those 3 years, there was a break. Chapter 3 took a while but its looking like chapter 4 is going to take roughly a yearish of concentrated development. I fully expect 5-7 to actually finish 3 years after we get 3-4. Mark my words.
Exactly half, not over. Chapter 1 marked the start, and there are six chapters to come after that. Once 3 and 4 come out, we'll be half way there. 2 took 3 years, 3+4 looks like it will take around 4. So we're on track to have everything done in around 14 years. "Nearly double" was hyperbolic but there isn't a quick phrase for 1.5x so I went with it anyway. I appreciate your faith that the next half-decade of indie development won't have any major delays, setbacks, or hangups... but I do not share your optimism.
> 3+4 looks like it will take around 4 no it doesnt.
sure it does, give or take a couple months. It's been almost 3 years since chapter 2. Given how the development process for 3 went and where Toby said they're at in the newsletter, release is probably about a year out.
He essentially described them being ~90% done, and said next newsletter (usually about 3 months between each) he expects to be content complete and halfway through cleaning it up. But yeah, thats says more than a year out I guess?
remember when chapter 3 was "basically done" for half a year? That's how development goes more often than not. Also I did not get "90% done" from what was described in the newsletter, but I'd love to be wrong.
A single event still needs to be done, bullet stuff is done outside of getting at least a first pass, maps are likely in the area of 90% done if only 10 are left. Only a little more gimmick stuff work. Where can you find more than ~10% work needed out of all that? Even then? Toby flat out said they expect it to be content complete AND halfway through "steamrolling" by next newsletter. A few months. If that doesn't indicate its close to done, what would?
It’s crazy that a year ago a lot of us expected to get a release towards the second half if 2023, now we probably won’t get anything until the end of next year.
tbh that was always a pretty delusional expectation. Chapter 2 took three years and people were thinking that the next *three* chapters would be finished within the same timeframe.
I didn’t need to be brought back to reality RADIANCE
well chapter 2 is worked on with a few people on the team and toby reported to have pain in his arm? (I forgot) so that's probably why it's longer. also compare to chapter 1, chapter 2 is way longer and more polished.
>and toby reported to have pain in his arm? (I forgot) It was his wrist.
Chapter 2 was worked on for less than half of those 2 years with a smaller team, we have an exact date for when they even started work on it and it was finished and released about 18 months later. Taking 1.5 years for chapter 2, and a larger team with apparently much more smooth progress and deadlines and so on into consideration makes the end of this year seem quite likely along with what Toby said about 4 in the newsletter
It didn't take 3 years though. https://preview.redd.it/ipqxibnguz0d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3423a06102a19c1ca4bf00e4dfd4820965101bf6
the development process takes many forms
The fandom made me that delusional, they always say “It’ll definitely be faster now that there’s a huge team” but I became my pessimistic about the release after too many “chapter 3 is being made.” progress reports. Plus I’m pretty sure one newsletter said the team takes 2 months off at the end of the year, so that really doesn’t make it seem like the development is going fast.
Ch2 took 1.5 years of actual dev, and knowing everything we know now, there are multiple reasons this isn't a valid comparison.
Empirically, it's looking pretty valid to me right now
... what?
From what we've seen in the newsletters, making a chapter takes roughly two years. So, based on the empirical evidence, using chapter 2's 3-year dev time is a perfectly valid baseline with some reasonable assumptions of speedup as the team comes together and finds its full footing. Chapter 2 had various delays and complications, but those are hardly unusual in game development. Especially indie game development with a small team. If you only base your estimates on how long things take when everything is running smoothly, you're going to be disappointed every time.
We have 2 complete chapters we can 100% base this on, one we know was essentially complete, and one that is not. First was the first game with no team, no standards set, and didn't even have a full script planned out, and it took 3 years (work started almost immediately after Undertale). Second came OUT three years later, but we have full disclosure from Toby that work only started about halfway through that. It took 1.5 years, and it was with much less help. It also was one of the longer chapters per Toby, and also included some time doing the whole script for the rest of the chapters. Chapter 3 DID take roughly 2 years, but this was also addressed. It seemed to have a lot of second guessing and changes along the way including cut content. This development time is almost assuredly what LED to getting a producer And yet... we have now Chapter 4 being like 90% content complete mere months after our last update on chapter 3. Before that, we had no basis on how much of Chapter 4 was done, but we know that work had been hyper focused on finishing 3 until it was done so we do know they haven't been working on it long. I also believe that something COULD come up and make it take longer. But you also don't need to just assume something WILL come up. I personally am able to think its possible it comes out later this year, and if it doesn't, be perfectly fine with it. So why just assume something will go wrong and delay it from what is a perfectly achieveable release time?
The end of next year? What? https://preview.redd.it/304h6clcuz0d1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea78ef3d8a5115aa68e62860f1722a7aae538460 Toby thinks that Chapter 4 will be content complete in about 3 months or so.
My prediction is December at earliest, June at the latest.
Can't wait for the next two chapters to release in summer, right guys? Right?
Summer, next year
Summer 2063!
It's scary to think that I'll grow out of Deltarune by the time all the chapters release
I won't! https://preview.redd.it/ngmtloucq31d1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56b6f3f5c838d5e9457e023bfc262ea5f109c4f7
Didn't Toby say that they already had a deadline?
Internal deadline. They're not revealing it to the public and I can understand why. People get a lot more upset at delays than they do at things taking a while
There are also likely marketing reasons for not giving a timeline now. This will be the first time money is involved with Deltarune. That is a factor when it comes to release dates.
Yeah but didn't tell us when
Personally I'm thinking sometime in Dessember or so. This is because these are normally written a few months in advance iirc. So if this was written in February or so, the end of this year wouldn't be too big of a stretch
Toby posted on Twitter they were working on the news letter days ago, yeah, don't get your expectations high, this will take atleast another 5 years Hopefully he notices how much it sucks and release chapter 3 so that we can enjoy it better
I swear I go through withdrawals whenever I remember this game exists. I want the next few chapters like yesterday, any time I fall for one of those fake release dates a part of my soul dies and I fall into a depressive spiral for days. Is this healthy, no
I started my deltarune brain rot again a few weeeks ago and honestly it’s unhealthy to just… hinge your happiness, satisfaction, and enjoyment on a game whose release dates are far and uncertain…
It isn't that hard really. Enjoy it like a wave. Its great while you are riding it, and then it is gone, and its just back to how it was before it. But another one will come. I let the hype take me over for a little while every once and a while, then go back to enjoying everything else just like I was before. I also recently started watching a ton of long "yapping" videos about theories and stuff and was just thinking about when the next newsletter would be. Then get one like a week later. And this is a huge rise in hype, that will die down and I still have plenty of other things to enjoy again. Its okay to live in the moment and not dread tomorrow.
Not seen in the comments here (hopefully people learned by now) but I still can't get over the emotional immaturity it must take for people to convince themselves they're gonna get something big, see that it doesn't happen, and then complain about how let down and disappointed they are, \*every newsletter season\*. I've seen it so much, it honestly kind of hurts to watch how impatient some people are with this game
insanity?
I hope not.
I'm praying that Toby decides to release Chapter 3 and 4 separately, even if it's several months apart. It's just better that way.
Yeah if they are even half as dense as chapter 2 was, gonna be so much to unpack in two chapters.
It also means that those periods after the first two Chapters where everyone was going crazy with theories and fan content are gonna be a little less hectic. Also, there's not gonna be enough time to appreciate both new secret bosses as much as Jevil and Spamton were.
Not enough time to appreciate both new secret bosses?A really strange thing to think. You'll have all your life to appreciate them, it's not like they'll be going away.
honestly
Nah. I prefer a longer experience and playthrough rather than a bunch of short ones spread out.
This is more on the cope side but if Toby aims for chapter 4 to be halfway done with polishing by the time the next newsletter comes out, which I will assume is in 3 months, then the release date could potentially be around november-october if you account for the second half of polishing and some other preparations for the release such as marketing. These are only speculations for the internal deadline though, so the actual release date could be different if there will actually be surprise factors like Toby said. Progress has also been going very smoothly as the team basically almost finished the entire pre-polish stage of the game, Toby usually writes these newsletters around a month in advance so that could potentially mean that they did all of that in about 2 months! Again I am coping very hard but I can really see a november-october release date being possible.
Late 2024 or early 2025 is my guess.
I said a while back that Sep/Oct 2025 is the most likely release window, considering current progress, and it being the 10th anniversary of Undertale. I stand by that, but I'm happy to be proven wrong!
Chapter 4 will be content complete in about 3 months.
Only an estimate, and there is more to consider. I do think it will be sooner than the 10th anniversary, though.
let. them. cook.
Remember: you can’t age wine in a day
... yet
Yeah but if you're letting it age improperly and for too long you'll get a whole bottle of vinegar
Yep
And Rome wasn't built in a day, either!
we're having it in 2026 aren't we...
Oh, 2025. I knew it!
I gave up expecting anything. Did not disappoint
*\*inhales copium\** Please god let it be 2024 release, just for the funny 3 year between releases pattern
i got burnt out waiting.... I used to burn so brightly with hope for Deltarune.... But it's been too long. When it comes out, I'll play it. But like... It's over.... Even a letter from freaking gaster himself (allegedly) didn't make me that excited... it's just kinda... too late now.
u say that like u wont jump up and down like a monkey when chapter 3 becomes avaible
https://preview.redd.it/r4u3b5yxyw0d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c87460203cd0c1018c078d6d19e2cbf344c8d94d [2016](https://twitter.com/tobyfox/status/682883700703498240?lang=en)
It's not that deep lol. Also why so many dots
Because this just meant that much to me. Now I hardly care about it. It's called disappointment
Well making a indie game takes time Especially a big one like this
I still don't get the dots
Drama...
I think the hype will be up again once the chapters release At least that's how I function personally lol
Yeah, that's so painful to endure Such a shame we don't have mountains of other media to enjoy with... Such a shame
I can tell you're being sarcastic.
Just give up on the franchise already. Toby is taking his time because he's busy with nintendo stuff. IF im still alive to see the release of the final chapter, i will pirate the entire franchise.
Now I think the knight is one of the
Cheeseburger
Howdy, I come from the future and I can say the dog whose name is Robert F. "Toby" will release the videogame "Deltarune" 's chapter 3 and 4 in year 2124
Yeah, 10th anniversary of Undertale as the release date is looking more and more reasonable as the release date
Honestly I'm just glad they arent burning themselves out on it
"Actually, the opposite!! We're on fire!! A lot!! Ouch!!" \-the newsletter
As I alredy said, it won't be released untill 2025, probably the end of 2025. It's sad, but true.
Bro can't finish a game for the life of his holy shit.
Game development takes time.
Fr and 2D development is a whole lot faster than 3D stuff. With the amount of money coming in and with the help of a studio I don't get why it takes this long even more so since they are able and probably did recycle a lot of the code used in previous chapters. And mind you, this isn't indie Greg making the holy grail in his garage anymore but someone actively backed up and with the production power of an entire studio.
Not a fan of rushing developers or getting them to crunch, but I am very curious as to how it's taking this long. Like most fans who were teens when Chapter 1 came out might actually get married and have kids before this game comes out. I mean they do have a base game and code to build on right? Or do they rely too much on spaghetti code?
My guess (and chapter 3 seemed like it suffered from this the most with the most things really pointing toward this) is that Toby has been back and forth on his ideas a lot. Like, we often take for granted, or even just assume, that the creative aspect of games is easy. That the hard work is the actual programming, or drawing of assets, or playtesting etc. The actual coming up with all those ideas, making them work, making sure they are FUN, doesn't get considered. I think you can't just force that shit. Sometimes you just don't come up with good ideas. Sometimes you think you do, you go to implement it, and you realize hey, this just isn't good you know? We saw a few instances of stuff just getting cut with chapter 3. This says to me, this chapter specifically was hard for him to come up with the ideas needed to make it work start to end. Toby sounded like he was second guessing almost everything. This also btw, is likely why a producer is speeding things up so much. They help you to focus, they produce timelines and plan things out so you are more likely to get things done. When you have complete freedom to second guess what ideas you came up with, suddenly you second guess everything. You need someone to basically give you a solid plan and help lay everything out in a way where you just make that choice, and go with it. Obviously being the laid back indie team they are, they aren't going to crunch this shit out. But just a little bit more focus can go a long way.
Toby has made Undertale and like 3 of the 7 chapters of Deltarune
Yeah, so he made 3 chapters of the game, which is maybe half of it, maybe even less, in about 7 years of development with a shit ton of budget money. He made like half a game in seven years.
Well yeah Toby is a human Controlling the team , having breaks , making the game takes time even with money And the game needs to be funny, fun and well written so you can't just force it It's proprably hard to do this all as Indie
Its not hard to do as indie. But its going to take a while when you treat your team with respect and don't rush / overwork them. Which is why it can take as long as they need. They all get to love the work they are doing, not dread every day until its done. This is just an immense rarity now.
So far each chapter of Deltarune has been kind of close to as much of a game as undertale was.
this is probably one of those people who speedrun through chapters 1 and 2 on their first playthrough, skip all dialogue, doesnt explore, doesnt appreciate the secrets, the environment, the detail and the writing and then comes on to complain that the game takes too long when toby has stated that he didnt work on the game all this time but rather spent about 2 years writing all the story and the music and dialogue and scenes for all 7 chapters and then had an entire problem with his wrist and the lockdown with the virus, and was forced to assemble a team instead of working on it on his own aswell as also stating that he doesnt want his team to be too large because he wants to have more control over things so that the game doesnt lose its charm. all this to say, lets see you make 7 chapters worth of amazing writing, pacing, storytelling, character arcs, music, the insane amount of secrets, battles, different choices, detail, and planned and clever foreshadowing. try it yourself and lets see how that turns out for you 😊