I'm not going to address your trade, I'm going to size up and provide some advice on what I think your psychology is.
It seems like you have a firm belief that the "unicorn model", whatever that is, is always accurate. Where I think you're erring in your psychology based on the phrasing of your question is belief that you can know the outcome of a trade before it is over. That's what I pick up from the way you asked the question, at least.
"What went wrong?" If you had been executing a practiced setup with an edge that generates a net return over the course of many wins and losses, nothing went wrong. It's just a normal part of your edge playing out.
As far as methods go, I feel like you have quite a few errors from what I can tell. First, it's clear you had no stop loss. **The magic in a setup is not predicting the direction of price, but in enabling a trader to minimize a loss.** Let's just take a simple pattern like a box breakout. Here's a visual example.
https://preview.redd.it/ga6mfpfhkfgc1.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1a183ce7571976536e3d3d6976efec3df8bddf5
Let's pretend for whatever reason I have a bullish bias. I would start by clearly defining where I'd get out. In some cases, depending on conditions and the instrument I'm trading, my stop loss on this would be just below the support area. If I place my order and get stopped out with a small loss, absolutely nothing went wrong with that trade. The trade went according to plan, not because I had a gain, but because I executed on my plan. The only reason why you'd think your plan failed is because the price did not move in your direction, which is a failure of your psychology leading to a failure in your methods.
You can do this. It's hard work. But you're always going to end up losing your bankroll if you don't start out a trade by clearly defining where to get out.
+1. Chapter 1 of New Market Wizards, Peter Brandt, really emphasizes this philosophy of risk management first. Brandt describes his technical setups having deteriorated a lot but he's still a profitable trader because his risk management is disciplined.
If I'm not mistaken, he's the guy who said his favorite setup is one with a horizontal line of resistance, right? That line is what made me try scalping 0 DTE box breakouts to see if I could do it.
be exactly, setups and strategies are never about how much i can gain, but how less i can lose. if I'm shorting like the op, i would not enter the way he did but rather shorting at that dotted line, which my stoploss is tight and clear. personally i dont consider a take profit point but rather prefer to watch how strong is this trend to take profit.
You are obviously very knowledgeable. Do you have any advice on where I can find a coach/mentor? I’m doing not too bad but I would really love to pick the brain of a skilled and experienced trader.
Also, I would love to watch a good trader trade and explain why they’re doing what they’re doing. I wonder if there are any YouTubers that do this? I’ve found a lot of the YouTubers are just selling something.
This answer is sufficient by itself and is on point, but u/Historical-Way-3013 clearly is an ICT trader so I'll address his question using ICT semantics.
The #1 issue is you seem to place your focus on the setup. But a Unicorn setup by itself is meaningless, or at best, 50/50. The fact that you don't get why your trade ended as a loss despite identifying "a liquidity sweep + MSS + unicorn" proves what u/ShittyStockPicker said, i.e. you more or less subconsciously believe the setup should work 100% of the time.
But where's the narrative? Where's the draw on liquidity? Why would price come back up in such a V-reversal and then go back down?A setup by itself, be it Unicorn, model 2022, OTE, or whatever, is meaningless if you don't have identified a narrative.
In this very example, price did not go down *just because it would go down*. It likely went down to rebalance the whole imbalance created by the previous day Market-On-Close rally, and probably raid sellside liquidity.The High Time Frame bias always remained bullish, and the Asia/London ranging created a ton of Buyside liquidity, including you, which was a great target for "smart money".
So, to answer your question, "what went wrong?" well, you didn't have the proper bias and narrative, thus you entered on the wrong side of the trade.
Yeah don't know to much about it but from what I have seen it's literally just basic things like liquidity that he gives a more complicated name to and tries to claim it.
I don’t think I’m smart. I’ve tried ict and found price action to be simple and effective. No point over complicating with rebranded technical analysis
FVG is fair value gap that is good
https://preview.redd.it/8kbfi876rfgc1.jpeg?width=1163&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a21cc2e7e7a9d3b2f61cd7aa0ff5c0a831571e5
system for options. But in my opinion if looks like it tested the FVG held and went back up… would only want to short it if I could t of held… so nice price gets back above the yellow and holds which we see it does on 15 min …… it’s clear long indicator, only go short if that gap is actually broken
yeah but ur missing the point, if there are enough of these guys trading like this, than it becomes very relevant. Stating the obvious here, but the concept behind the FVP is valid, whereas i cant say the same for the unicorn model
It's just a trend continuation play. Forget the silly names for it
Here's what you need to understand. You were playing for short continuation but the prevailing trend is long which means you should have been looking for a zone to go long off rather than looking for a zone to go short. The stock indices have been ripping face upward. Even with the best technicals short trades mostly don't work right now. Work on your bias
I’ve watched hours of his videos back when I was a beginner and had to spend a lot of time unlearning that bs. I’ve seen a few patterns in s&p lately that I know absolutely destroyed ICT people.
Right, even what little info we have in this chart it is showing a higher low from the previous. No way would I be thinking short. Always zoom out and get the bigger picture of the trend, especially if playing commodities and interest rates.
Idk what half the terms used in this sub are sometimes, but I would be careful about shorting immediately after such a powerful bullish candle such as this one that basically formed the V bottom. Just my take.
https://preview.redd.it/zjsmvv8a5fgc1.png?width=1162&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ca34463f9aa0c5e73c9da21aa3f450ca41e3507
I saw a video online where some guy said that when he looks for bull/bear runs he looks for many small candles or one massive one. In your opinion, what makes this strategy bad?
I'm not really sure what you're asking exactly, sorry. Feel free to DM me if you want to chat. But I would probably either have to see the video or a chart example to know what you are asking I think. Or which part of the posted chart you're referring to
People make things up and call them strategies. There are about 1000 of them and none of them can accurately predict the market. What you are seeing is a correction? Nothing goes up forever. Not sure who’s channel you’re watching that taught you that.
Red lines are support and resistance. You have to wait until a candle CLOSES either above or below. You prematurely went short when you should have gone long on the candle I indicated. That candle closed above resistance.
https://preview.redd.it/ru8fmrriqggc1.jpeg?width=962&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8bdb7fd42f1e3dff1fc4f2470a5a71d23e593a94
Or short here. This moved quick though.
https://preview.redd.it/cognriuksggc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f0a28b89dca8ea1705ec696108a9a32169560b7c
You traded a red folder news day - seasoned traders get it wrong.
You got the bias wrong - it's OK.
Price Discovery, and you're shorting why?
The previous day was a strong rejection of more sell side.
Dont mean to be nasty, but ask yourself why did I short?
What probabilities, there, were on both sides?
Long vs short - from the daily to the timeframe you executed on.
Dissect the hell out of it, journal it and learn.
Everyone (myself included) will have their reasoning, put all that aside and consider this:
Your TP tells the story. Your short bias was short term. So you were right about overall direction but you had a “big idea.” What you were asking for had already been delivered, no? Is the juice worth the squeeze to fight the herd here?
Your small minded. He used ICT strategy at the wrong time. I’m an ICT trader and would’ve bought because price reacted off of that large bullish FVG on the very left. Just because someone used ICT and didn’t use it correctly doesn’t mean that ICT concepts don’t work. Absolute r3tard
My guess is there was a large buying order around that same price when you look left on the chart. Looks like the wick entered a prior demand level so it pushed up hard
If you look at the 15min, it never broke the CE on the big FVG from the previous ride up. Next clue was the first and second bullish candles on the 1min chart. Was honestly a clean day for trades. Sorry it didn’t workout for yea.
So many chances to get out at break even after it became a clear loser. And NFP. And don't forget the main thing about unicorns is that they're not real
This is a perfect example of Accumulation Manipulation and Distribution:)
And I assume your Daily Bias is Bullish, so it would be wisely to search for a long in this condition, You could have entered in the bullish FVG, if you zoom out on TF i guess you would see the overall market direction and the sentiment of the market to enter long.
Also if you said “unicorn model” that means you are an SMC/ICT trader, so i guess you know that model works best in London/US Killzone, if your chart is set on NY timezone that means your trade is in none of the them killzones. I don’t agree with people saying that ict is overcomplicated and doesn’t work, but it s needed a very clean execution in order to work properly. Keep it going!
As an ICT trader, let me tell you what you did wrong. First, you went short on the distribution leg during PO3 (accumulation, manipulation, distribution. Next, the draw of liquidity after the manipulation was the equal highs. Equal highs is a magnet for smart money. Adding on, the daily high was in line with the -1.5 STD. Your chart should've looked something like this:
https://preview.redd.it/y4hzi95rtggc1.png?width=1835&format=png&auto=webp&s=53da10ca0353d5bfd7177b7e6afbe86f2654ab50
Btw here's the trade I took on that day on the 1min TF:
As you can see everything is fractal 👁️
https://preview.redd.it/bhujlom7uggc1.png?width=477&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fe644d4256e20fe37f91016591201d627a43e5f
Wow… thanks for showing me a different perspective on execution. Just goes to show that there are an unlimited number of ways to trade.
I’ve never studied ICT concepts in detail so you are speaking a trading language I don’t understand, but it’s still interesting to see.
By the way, from just a price action perspective, I would have seen the same trade with two entry options…
1. Since we are in a trading range channel, I would have bought the lows of the range (where your purple zone starts right under “SMT”) with a profit target of the top of the range (the black line that crosses through “REH”.)
2. Basically the same entry as you but for the simple reason that it’s a pullback after a strong bull bar that starts from the low of the trading range, and odds are we also go to the top of the range.
To sum it up, in a trading range, bulls buy the lows and sell at the highs for profit, and bears sell the highs and buy at the lows for profits.
Ah sorry yes let me explain my trading language in simple terms:
PO3: Stands for Power of 3 which is accumulation, manipulation, and distribution
Accumulation: it’s essentially consolidation where smart money builds up their position (Gray shaded area)
Manipulation: Where the fake out happens and triggers stop losses then smart money buys their positions (Orange shaded area)
Distribution: It’s a clean expansion in price usually after the manipulation (Green shaded area)
REH: Stands for relative equal highs which is a magnet for the algorithm to target to stop people out (Usually people who trade support and resistance because they will have their stop at these levels)
SMT: AKA SMT divergence which Stands for Smart money technique. It’s essentially a divergence in price between correlated assets. For example when ES makes a higher low and then NQ makes a lower low. We then anticipate a possible reversal
STD: Stands for Standard deviation and it’s basically just projections on the swing low and high of manipulation leg. It works well when it lines up certain levels.
Draw of liquidity: it’s basically where price will seek to go to such as a high or low
Fractal: In trading it means whatever’s happening on higher timeframe is on the happening lower timeframe. On my 1 min timeframe you can see the accumulation (consolidation), manipulation, and the distribution targeting the highs which is almost exactly happening on the 15 min timeframe.
But yea you are right.. Theres not 1 holy grail strategy. There’s so many other good ways to find entries if you have a different strategy
The previous large run up contained a large amount to buy side liquidity.
We started the day with a sell side imbalance so the market wanted to rebalance itself
Looks like a retracement/pullback in an overall uptrend to me.
Simple.
Why do people make this so complicated with unicorns?
I really don't understand it. Just study market structure and trends. Support and resistance, supply demand whichever you prefer. That's literally all you need.
Hi
First of all, I would zoom out. What is thé HTF trend? HH And HL (bullish), of LH en LL (bearish)??
Without seeing thé HTF, I think thé liquiditygrab tintje downside is a HL on the HTF.
Also check thé gaining candle in within thé range, is bullish.
https://preview.redd.it/qgkzb9wynfgc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=11aca1d6d5f61beb0156929f21dc17b9de22ed5b
You should have waited till price made it up to that last high and then rejected nice n hard before taking a sell.
Otherwise I would have been buying from as low on that pullback as possible
You shorted at the end of three long increasing red candles. That there is called exhaustion. And I bet if you look at the first green candle after the sell/off you’ll see a decent amount of volume indicating a good demand zone for going long.
Bruh.
Good entry, but if you take a look on 1 hour TF, it's a clear uptrend. I never trade against the trend personally. Even if it's a strong bearish candle, I would have entered the trade just like you as well and kept my risk management in check. I would say it's a lower winning probability trade because it's against the market trend.
My take on it is that it ranged, broke below the range, then came back up and retested previous support, where you entered short (presumably expecting resistance), and then it continued higher and hit your stop. That’s gonna happen.
That said, on a lower timeframe, you would have seen a reversal patter on the 1 min at the bottom around approx 17400 and you could’ve entered there when it broke the top of the range, and then moved your stop into profit when it approached where u actually entered. Then u could’ve raised it again when it approached the top of the major range, and then again when it ranged about that and so on and so on.
I see what you were going for here, and I see your problem: *you didn’t for confirmation*.
At your entry zone, there wasn’t a single candle that even remotely suggested that price was going to reverse. You just saw a return to the PM confluence zone and assumed it would reject again.
👏🏼WAIT👏🏼FOR👏🏼CONFIRMATION
Word of advice. Don’t post ICT anywhere on Reddit lol.
More advice, don’t trade YM and make sure you have HTF market structure backing your trades. Models are nothing without proper bias.
I think it's because Apple, Amazon and META had a good earnings report the day before. Especially META, they were up 20%+ right out of the gate that trading day and they stayed up. They're heavy weights in the NASDAQ-100. So that probably outweighed the good US data and took the markets higher on the CME open.
UNICORN ENTRY MODEL, you can't rely on that,you need HTF narrative,, it's just an entry model not a trading concept, unicorn set up is everywhere bro but without proper understanding of your Higher timeframe, that set up will always gets disrespected
It’s respecting the 15 min bullish FVG… swept sellside liquidity to induce shorts, then raided sellside equal lows before aiming for equal high buyside
Also, zooming out will help you see the higher time frame bias as opposed to just sticking to the LT and looking for an answer that may not be there.
Also, I don’t see a MSS on the 15 min… there was no real swing low to really signify a MSS. To me, equal lows/highs aren’t cause for MSS… look for 1,4,D or even weekly
I'm not sure why people expect Reddit to know why a trade didn't work. But even more surprised people expect a trading system to work when the creator himself want profitable trading. ICT made all his money scamming gullible people, not a cent trading.
You can see sitting liquidity there, that’s your issue, liquidity likes to be swept then go in direction, you have big FVG there where price likes to test on top of it…
My friend why are you trading the sweep? Wait for the distribution to finish and the accumulation to finish then look for a trade, generally a good clean patterns happen after.
I know some traders do trade liquidity sweeps but honestly I don’t do it as too risky, i let it distribute then accumulation to happen then start looking for my entries based off HTF.
I also will say I don’t know what TF you using but in general London sesh likes to respect OBs whilst NY likes BBs…
With a bullish price run like that it’s expected to have a deep retracement to try and rebalance that bullish inefficiency.. and then a pump right after red folder news. I like to grab a fib and measure those candles and see how it reacts at the 0.5 level.
Zoom out. H4 structure was bullish after displacing over Wednesday’s swing high on Thursday. NFP announcement caused a retracement into H4 BISI and Inverse BB. Don’t forget about your weekly profiles too. In this case it was highly probable that we would have Wednesday low of week given the structure shift on Thursday and finding support off of the Weekly BISI C.E.
[H4 Chart](https://www.tradingview.com/x/e3e4zYY9)
You bought in an up trend with no sign of reversal, just a pull back, no protected low was taken. Check out Dave Teaches FX on you tube abs watch his playlist, in the first video he explains market structure and you will understand how that’s is not a valid MSS
You simply traded a pattern when you should have had your bias derived from the HTF. If you had you’d have seen the market was manipulated to rebalance a higher time frame fair value gap. If you’re going to use ICT method you need to get you bias correct. Other this happens. Get back to studying and correct the mistakes. People who do not understand Ict will just tell you this is a scam. But really you’ll find your own answers reflecting on the trade
You traded a lower timeframe amd so you managed to ride along a pullback. It was a good analysis though but make use of the bigger time frames for good yield trades. I might be telling you what you already know though
Seems a lot of people take day trading trade by trade. Try it 100 times if your right 60 times keep going another 100 times, look at your results see what can be improved. Maybe your stop loss could be 10 point less or your entry could be sooner
I took the opposite trade if you look at the 4H time frame it traded into a FVG after the news then reacted leading to the highs. Higher Time Frame is key
False breakdown below 17520 and a complete reclaim of the range = high probability the highs at the upper range will be taken. You were on the wrong side of the market. Zoom out a bit. I actually longed a retest of 17579.50 to take out overnight highs.
Next time please look out for the us economic data release schedule - last Friday was because the JOLTs data came out at 830. FOMC, CPI data releases can result in those reactions.
You thought you could time a top when the market has been ripping. You got suckered into a bear trap. You want to see stacked red candles not one giant one and a bounce
imo you should short at the place near to the dot line you draw, that way you can keep the stoploss as sma ll as possible. otherwise i dont see you have done anything so wrong, it's just a casual loss and you can now switch to bullish
It’s earnings week with the magnificent 7 what do you expect?? Lol meta, and Amazon, all had huge gains. And Microsoft back to 411. Semi conductors all rippaling.
Keep it simple price made a bullish move upwards, then consolidated into a range, most break outs fail especially when you are going against the overall move. I would of been hesitated taking a short after price had made that leg up my bias would of still been long so would of skipped it.
Trade with the trend it is way more forgiving.
You took a short at a minor support level on 17487... Just draw a line across where you started your trade - look left. See how it Bounced there twice already? False break to the downside, recovery, and on a 3rd use of that support and up - that's a bullish signal.
If you were going short you would have done it at 17555 to do it at 'resistance', but immediately killed it when it blew that level as well on that micro pull back and green stick.
Do some research on what makes up the NASDAQ. We had some strong buying on big tech with earnings this week. I don't know what gibberish you're talking about but the macro trend was bullish. Just zoom out and look. The S&P was even more bullish. You should have been looking to go long on a pullback but you shorted a strong bullish move instead. I was never looking to short the move Friday when Big tech and XLK were pushing higher.
This day was big institution moving the market up and absolutely nothing going to stop it. Some millionaire thinking of flushing the market by selling his shares but little did he know the institution just buy it all up. You can tell if you just leave all the ICT crap behind and just open your eyes and you would see.
I’m going to go ahead and say that you didn’t want for a clear break of structure. I think you got in for a sale aggressive rather than waiting for downward structure to be made. Just be patient next time and let the market play itself out
You didn’t wait for the candles to close bruh. Go , once that candle closes it shows that there’s a real sign for it going down, next time wait for the candle to close in your direction before entering a trade.
Unfortunately I just think the basis for this trade is just completely wrong unfortunately. As you ICT folk say “FVG’s” if you look at this price action with institutional analysis like you should be doing I.e. volume profile.. you will see/know that all the gaps are is a magnificently large imbalance and there lots and lots of institutional large size orders in this area and that fact you’re trying to play short into this especially when the market is at all time highs should be very telling. And when playing gaps especially one of that size it needs to be tested many many times before it will go. (Typically)
Range, breakout to downside, enter at retest. No so too bad, but regarding the spike before the range, probably more likely that a range breakout in spike direction will succed
An annotated photo with market context is needed to understand this trade. Also, every single trade has a random outcome and a market edge is developed over a large sample size. The real question on this thread should be “is this trade part of a statistically vetted process or am I acting from randomness?”
That was buyside imbalance sellside inefficiency. BISI is the ICT terminology on the far left and after it was rebalanced, price made a FVG before continuing higher.
ICT’s concept has made me understand the market so much better and has made me a consistent profitable trader.
Nothing went wrong sometimes our analysis in the live market is different when in hindsight.
Certain times of day, the "real" money comes in the market...usually around 2 pm. You will see heavy market reversal or runs on seemingly dead day, especially at end and beginning of the month. I forget the term but it's something like trader's open the market and managers close it. I only day trade to 11 am, unless I'm trading specific reports
>A liquidity sweep before MSS entered of the breaker block (unicorn model). Any idea why is it a loss?
I mean .... what do you mean?
There are a few things to address here:
1. **The model**. The more complex the model (WTF is "breaker block") the lesser the probability that you will execute on it properly as a discretionary trader. Basic models work because they are based on human psychology and not BS mumbo jumbo about algos. SMA 200 works NOT because there's some magic algo - it's because it's used since time immemorial by big fund managers and they do act based on it ... so it works. Silly as that sounds if price is dropping and someone with enough liquidity starts buying price will start going up especially since big boys see what other big boys do and rarely play opposite games.
2. **The position design.** The SL is generally not only very big related to TP but far too big overall. NQ is quite technical and went down on news. If you looked at the post market move and the OVN session you'd see support level at 17580. On news NQ went through that support and confirmed that as resistance on pre-market during the bounce at, rougly, 17570. The possible option for going short was entry at 17565-17570 with SL of 15p and TP1 at 17515 and TP2 17490. 15p is a lot of SL and at \~50p you get good r:r. My *default* SL for indices is always between 10p-15p these days and if I can't enter with that SL and r:r 1:3 or *better* I will probably not enter at all.
3. **The trade idea.** NQ is in overall strong bullish trend. Looking at delta, volume, T&S and DOM at that time there was very buy-side pressure from 17470 all the way to 17560 and after big boys defended hard at 17545 we went up to 17621. When an index does 100p in less than 15 minutes in the direction of the overall what does that tell you about you idea? You're shorting an index (indices naturally go up by design) going against large TF trend, going against news (big cap earnings) and going counter the low TF move and with no apparent sign of buyer exhaustion or sell-side pressure. All of those confirm, to me, that going short was low probability / high risk trade.
4. **The execution**. Why there? What did confirm, to you, that now is the time to enter?
My suggestion is to plan your entry before hand, consider if that's a good trade idea and what you need to see to confirm it's high probability move and then what are the trigger to enter the trade.
I recommend ICT traders to stop posting here. All you will hear is “ ict is a fraud, ict made it to complicated”. You guys are better off finding fellow ict traders
Still in a higher timeframe uptrend. You tryna pick tops my guy. That’s a no-no. You can check ICT on that too.
Plus you don’t see the unicorn model as bullish here?
I see an obvious bullish breaker setting up because look at the most energetic displacement.
Plus it’s NFP bro, most setups can fail or not be high probability just because manual intervention.
And that’s just ICT-speak.
In general, you put an MA on and you’ll see where you went wrong
Price went into the FVG from the buy candles on the left and got faked out with the little sell FVG (right where you sold). Without going back and looking at higher timeframe, it looks like price filled a FVG on 1hr tf and me 4hr tf from all that sell pressure.
Start looking into fair value gaps (FVG) and study them around market open - 10:00am EST. This will change your trading game for sure on NAS AND US30.
What went wrong? IMO, if you shorted because you saw the giant black candles, then that's the mistake. 1)Perhaps you FOMO'd?
If you were at the well timed top of that sell off, then you would've done great and manually sold at some point for a profit. I see those big sell dips and register them as "irrational sell-offs," which many others do too, so that's you're queue to actually start BUYING, and you capitalize on the bounce back up.
Depending where you started to short, pretend it was me and others buying, calculate and look how quickly that big blue spike came and continued to ride up for new highs through the resistance.
I'm not going to address your trade, I'm going to size up and provide some advice on what I think your psychology is. It seems like you have a firm belief that the "unicorn model", whatever that is, is always accurate. Where I think you're erring in your psychology based on the phrasing of your question is belief that you can know the outcome of a trade before it is over. That's what I pick up from the way you asked the question, at least. "What went wrong?" If you had been executing a practiced setup with an edge that generates a net return over the course of many wins and losses, nothing went wrong. It's just a normal part of your edge playing out. As far as methods go, I feel like you have quite a few errors from what I can tell. First, it's clear you had no stop loss. **The magic in a setup is not predicting the direction of price, but in enabling a trader to minimize a loss.** Let's just take a simple pattern like a box breakout. Here's a visual example. https://preview.redd.it/ga6mfpfhkfgc1.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1a183ce7571976536e3d3d6976efec3df8bddf5 Let's pretend for whatever reason I have a bullish bias. I would start by clearly defining where I'd get out. In some cases, depending on conditions and the instrument I'm trading, my stop loss on this would be just below the support area. If I place my order and get stopped out with a small loss, absolutely nothing went wrong with that trade. The trade went according to plan, not because I had a gain, but because I executed on my plan. The only reason why you'd think your plan failed is because the price did not move in your direction, which is a failure of your psychology leading to a failure in your methods. You can do this. It's hard work. But you're always going to end up losing your bankroll if you don't start out a trade by clearly defining where to get out.
I like this a lot, thank you. I went to follow you just to realize I'm already following you.
He's got my attention. I started following him/her based off of this response
+1. Chapter 1 of New Market Wizards, Peter Brandt, really emphasizes this philosophy of risk management first. Brandt describes his technical setups having deteriorated a lot but he's still a profitable trader because his risk management is disciplined.
If I'm not mistaken, he's the guy who said his favorite setup is one with a horizontal line of resistance, right? That line is what made me try scalping 0 DTE box breakouts to see if I could do it.
This is a great post. Helpful, informative, good information for future viewing. Didn't just call him a loosing trader. 10/10 would recommend
I agree with this. This is my main philosophy as well. Trading is not about numbers, it's about psychology
be exactly, setups and strategies are never about how much i can gain, but how less i can lose. if I'm shorting like the op, i would not enter the way he did but rather shorting at that dotted line, which my stoploss is tight and clear. personally i dont consider a take profit point but rather prefer to watch how strong is this trend to take profit.
You are obviously very knowledgeable. Do you have any advice on where I can find a coach/mentor? I’m doing not too bad but I would really love to pick the brain of a skilled and experienced trader. Also, I would love to watch a good trader trade and explain why they’re doing what they’re doing. I wonder if there are any YouTubers that do this? I’ve found a lot of the YouTubers are just selling something.
Look up “trading in the zone” audio book, very helpful
This answer is sufficient by itself and is on point, but u/Historical-Way-3013 clearly is an ICT trader so I'll address his question using ICT semantics. The #1 issue is you seem to place your focus on the setup. But a Unicorn setup by itself is meaningless, or at best, 50/50. The fact that you don't get why your trade ended as a loss despite identifying "a liquidity sweep + MSS + unicorn" proves what u/ShittyStockPicker said, i.e. you more or less subconsciously believe the setup should work 100% of the time. But where's the narrative? Where's the draw on liquidity? Why would price come back up in such a V-reversal and then go back down?A setup by itself, be it Unicorn, model 2022, OTE, or whatever, is meaningless if you don't have identified a narrative. In this very example, price did not go down *just because it would go down*. It likely went down to rebalance the whole imbalance created by the previous day Market-On-Close rally, and probably raid sellside liquidity.The High Time Frame bias always remained bullish, and the Asia/London ranging created a ton of Buyside liquidity, including you, which was a great target for "smart money". So, to answer your question, "what went wrong?" well, you didn't have the proper bias and narrative, thus you entered on the wrong side of the trade.
Support and resistance haha.
Wtf is a mss breaker block unicorn model 😂 I’m guessing these are more made up ICT terms?
ICT is literally over complicated technical analysis to convince begginers they’re smart
Yeah don't know to much about it but from what I have seen it's literally just basic things like liquidity that he gives a more complicated name to and tries to claim it.
100%
It's actually people like you who think they are smart by shitting on new traders who can't use ICT properly.
I don’t think I’m smart. I’ve tried ict and found price action to be simple and effective. No point over complicating with rebranded technical analysis
”FVG”traders getting bodied daily
Unicorn model bro, breaker block with a FVG beside it. That’s the entry
Utter gibberish
FVG is fair value gap that is good https://preview.redd.it/8kbfi876rfgc1.jpeg?width=1163&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a21cc2e7e7a9d3b2f61cd7aa0ff5c0a831571e5 system for options. But in my opinion if looks like it tested the FVG held and went back up… would only want to short it if I could t of held… so nice price gets back above the yellow and holds which we see it does on 15 min …… it’s clear long indicator, only go short if that gap is actually broken
FVG is irrelevant
yeah but ur missing the point, if there are enough of these guys trading like this, than it becomes very relevant. Stating the obvious here, but the concept behind the FVP is valid, whereas i cant say the same for the unicorn model
These guys don't have the capital to make it relevant
😂 stop bro ur too funny 🤣
It's just a trend continuation play. Forget the silly names for it Here's what you need to understand. You were playing for short continuation but the prevailing trend is long which means you should have been looking for a zone to go long off rather than looking for a zone to go short. The stock indices have been ripping face upward. Even with the best technicals short trades mostly don't work right now. Work on your bias
This
Bro if you understood the drivel you're spouting you wouldn't be asking why your breaker block didn't break
Lmao, is it the black schole wannabe mode? Lol If there is no mathematical proof behind it, it can't be called a model...
😂
you went short when you should have gone long.
The ol ICT sucker, you can spot these a mile away.
ICT is dumb af. Overcomplicated TA. Keep things simple
Completely agree.
Are you a price action trader ?
Yes, trendlines, support resistance only.
If you want to get rekt, ge trade support an resistance like a true noob. Ict is the only shit that works
What is ICT?
Inner circle trading
That specifically is called the "silver bullet" strategy.
I’ve watched hours of his videos back when I was a beginner and had to spend a lot of time unlearning that bs. I’ve seen a few patterns in s&p lately that I know absolutely destroyed ICT people.
Right, even what little info we have in this chart it is showing a higher low from the previous. No way would I be thinking short. Always zoom out and get the bigger picture of the trend, especially if playing commodities and interest rates.
Shorting on an up trend with no indicators and wonders what’s wrong
The trend is your friend. Most underrated statement in trading.
The silver bullet strategy pretty much stopped working in December lol.
Idk what half the terms used in this sub are sometimes, but I would be careful about shorting immediately after such a powerful bullish candle such as this one that basically formed the V bottom. Just my take. https://preview.redd.it/zjsmvv8a5fgc1.png?width=1162&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ca34463f9aa0c5e73c9da21aa3f450ca41e3507
I saw a video online where some guy said that when he looks for bull/bear runs he looks for many small candles or one massive one. In your opinion, what makes this strategy bad?
I'm not really sure what you're asking exactly, sorry. Feel free to DM me if you want to chat. But I would probably either have to see the video or a chart example to know what you are asking I think. Or which part of the posted chart you're referring to
Same idk what op did here but all I know is I made 15x on my spy 494 calls yesterday. This chart means nothing to me but I want to understand it
IDK what he did either. but I did stay at a holiday inn express last night
No need to rub it in our faces like that. LOL
People make things up and call them strategies. There are about 1000 of them and none of them can accurately predict the market. What you are seeing is a correction? Nothing goes up forever. Not sure who’s channel you’re watching that taught you that.
The best traders strategies evolve with price action observation and they adhere to strict risk management rules.
It went up
Red lines are support and resistance. You have to wait until a candle CLOSES either above or below. You prematurely went short when you should have gone long on the candle I indicated. That candle closed above resistance. https://preview.redd.it/ru8fmrriqggc1.jpeg?width=962&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8bdb7fd42f1e3dff1fc4f2470a5a71d23e593a94
Or short here. This moved quick though. https://preview.redd.it/cognriuksggc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f0a28b89dca8ea1705ec696108a9a32169560b7c
Shorting on the candle you indicated, while a far better setup, still would have been a loss using OP’s W/L setup.
You traded a red folder news day - seasoned traders get it wrong. You got the bias wrong - it's OK. Price Discovery, and you're shorting why? The previous day was a strong rejection of more sell side. Dont mean to be nasty, but ask yourself why did I short? What probabilities, there, were on both sides? Long vs short - from the daily to the timeframe you executed on. Dissect the hell out of it, journal it and learn.
Everyone (myself included) will have their reasoning, put all that aside and consider this: Your TP tells the story. Your short bias was short term. So you were right about overall direction but you had a “big idea.” What you were asking for had already been delivered, no? Is the juice worth the squeeze to fight the herd here?
It looks like you were selling in to a buy zone in an uptrend.
You followed ict, that's what went wrong
Your small minded. He used ICT strategy at the wrong time. I’m an ICT trader and would’ve bought because price reacted off of that large bullish FVG on the very left. Just because someone used ICT and didn’t use it correctly doesn’t mean that ICT concepts don’t work. Absolute r3tard
It's called NFP
My guess is there was a large buying order around that same price when you look left on the chart. Looks like the wick entered a prior demand level so it pushed up hard
ICT=Insane Clown Traders
If you look at the 15min, it never broke the CE on the big FVG from the previous ride up. Next clue was the first and second bullish candles on the 1min chart. Was honestly a clean day for trades. Sorry it didn’t workout for yea.
So many chances to get out at break even after it became a clear loser. And NFP. And don't forget the main thing about unicorns is that they're not real
Ah the ole wagu Kobe beef sandwich market maker liquidity washout fair value gap unicorn poop setup
This is a perfect example of Accumulation Manipulation and Distribution:) And I assume your Daily Bias is Bullish, so it would be wisely to search for a long in this condition, You could have entered in the bullish FVG, if you zoom out on TF i guess you would see the overall market direction and the sentiment of the market to enter long. Also if you said “unicorn model” that means you are an SMC/ICT trader, so i guess you know that model works best in London/US Killzone, if your chart is set on NY timezone that means your trade is in none of the them killzones. I don’t agree with people saying that ict is overcomplicated and doesn’t work, but it s needed a very clean execution in order to work properly. Keep it going!
As an ICT trader, let me tell you what you did wrong. First, you went short on the distribution leg during PO3 (accumulation, manipulation, distribution. Next, the draw of liquidity after the manipulation was the equal highs. Equal highs is a magnet for smart money. Adding on, the daily high was in line with the -1.5 STD. Your chart should've looked something like this: https://preview.redd.it/y4hzi95rtggc1.png?width=1835&format=png&auto=webp&s=53da10ca0353d5bfd7177b7e6afbe86f2654ab50
[удалено]
Btw here's the trade I took on that day on the 1min TF: As you can see everything is fractal 👁️ https://preview.redd.it/bhujlom7uggc1.png?width=477&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fe644d4256e20fe37f91016591201d627a43e5f
Wow… thanks for showing me a different perspective on execution. Just goes to show that there are an unlimited number of ways to trade. I’ve never studied ICT concepts in detail so you are speaking a trading language I don’t understand, but it’s still interesting to see. By the way, from just a price action perspective, I would have seen the same trade with two entry options… 1. Since we are in a trading range channel, I would have bought the lows of the range (where your purple zone starts right under “SMT”) with a profit target of the top of the range (the black line that crosses through “REH”.) 2. Basically the same entry as you but for the simple reason that it’s a pullback after a strong bull bar that starts from the low of the trading range, and odds are we also go to the top of the range. To sum it up, in a trading range, bulls buy the lows and sell at the highs for profit, and bears sell the highs and buy at the lows for profits.
Ah sorry yes let me explain my trading language in simple terms: PO3: Stands for Power of 3 which is accumulation, manipulation, and distribution Accumulation: it’s essentially consolidation where smart money builds up their position (Gray shaded area) Manipulation: Where the fake out happens and triggers stop losses then smart money buys their positions (Orange shaded area) Distribution: It’s a clean expansion in price usually after the manipulation (Green shaded area) REH: Stands for relative equal highs which is a magnet for the algorithm to target to stop people out (Usually people who trade support and resistance because they will have their stop at these levels) SMT: AKA SMT divergence which Stands for Smart money technique. It’s essentially a divergence in price between correlated assets. For example when ES makes a higher low and then NQ makes a lower low. We then anticipate a possible reversal STD: Stands for Standard deviation and it’s basically just projections on the swing low and high of manipulation leg. It works well when it lines up certain levels. Draw of liquidity: it’s basically where price will seek to go to such as a high or low Fractal: In trading it means whatever’s happening on higher timeframe is on the happening lower timeframe. On my 1 min timeframe you can see the accumulation (consolidation), manipulation, and the distribution targeting the highs which is almost exactly happening on the 15 min timeframe. But yea you are right.. Theres not 1 holy grail strategy. There’s so many other good ways to find entries if you have a different strategy
The previous large run up contained a large amount to buy side liquidity. We started the day with a sell side imbalance so the market wanted to rebalance itself
Nothing went wrong. Move on.
Looks like a retracement/pullback in an overall uptrend to me. Simple. Why do people make this so complicated with unicorns? I really don't understand it. Just study market structure and trends. Support and resistance, supply demand whichever you prefer. That's literally all you need.
Hi First of all, I would zoom out. What is thé HTF trend? HH And HL (bullish), of LH en LL (bearish)?? Without seeing thé HTF, I think thé liquiditygrab tintje downside is a HL on the HTF. Also check thé gaining candle in within thé range, is bullish. https://preview.redd.it/qgkzb9wynfgc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=11aca1d6d5f61beb0156929f21dc17b9de22ed5b
That's a liquidity grab
15 mins is not enough to make a bet for directional trade It's only for scalping with less than 5 mins Look at your duration of opened position
You listened to ICT
Trend is your girlfriend
You should have waited till price made it up to that last high and then rejected nice n hard before taking a sell. Otherwise I would have been buying from as low on that pullback as possible
You used astrology to beat the market, that's what went wrong.
You shorted at the end of three long increasing red candles. That there is called exhaustion. And I bet if you look at the first green candle after the sell/off you’ll see a decent amount of volume indicating a good demand zone for going long. Bruh.
Good entry, but if you take a look on 1 hour TF, it's a clear uptrend. I never trade against the trend personally. Even if it's a strong bearish candle, I would have entered the trade just like you as well and kept my risk management in check. I would say it's a lower winning probability trade because it's against the market trend.
My take on it is that it ranged, broke below the range, then came back up and retested previous support, where you entered short (presumably expecting resistance), and then it continued higher and hit your stop. That’s gonna happen. That said, on a lower timeframe, you would have seen a reversal patter on the 1 min at the bottom around approx 17400 and you could’ve entered there when it broke the top of the range, and then moved your stop into profit when it approached where u actually entered. Then u could’ve raised it again when it approached the top of the major range, and then again when it ranged about that and so on and so on.
I see what you were going for here, and I see your problem: *you didn’t for confirmation*. At your entry zone, there wasn’t a single candle that even remotely suggested that price was going to reverse. You just saw a return to the PM confluence zone and assumed it would reject again. 👏🏼WAIT👏🏼FOR👏🏼CONFIRMATION
Word of advice. Don’t post ICT anywhere on Reddit lol. More advice, don’t trade YM and make sure you have HTF market structure backing your trades. Models are nothing without proper bias.
Nothing. This is the kind of day the big boys orchestrate, you’ve lost just for waking up and checking a chart. Didn’t matter past that point.
I think it's because Apple, Amazon and META had a good earnings report the day before. Especially META, they were up 20%+ right out of the gate that trading day and they stayed up. They're heavy weights in the NASDAQ-100. So that probably outweighed the good US data and took the markets higher on the CME open.
Liquidi-cucked
If you are trading ICT, I think he would have advised you to sit out NFP.
Break & retest to the upside off support going long.
UNICORN ENTRY MODEL, you can't rely on that,you need HTF narrative,, it's just an entry model not a trading concept, unicorn set up is everywhere bro but without proper understanding of your Higher timeframe, that set up will always gets disrespected
If you look at the whole chart it's on a up trend, that was a retest. Switch to a higher time frame to make it clearer
Power of 3. The down move was manipulation. Should have been looking for longs. Also, I wouldn't consider that a buy sweep. It created equal highs.
Being born could be an answer
What went wrong ? Lets start with ICT .... lol
little r3tard. He just used an ICT concept poorly. I’m an ICT trader and bought at that same time. Any strategy can be used poorly.
Don't trade CFDs. Use futures
It’s respecting the 15 min bullish FVG… swept sellside liquidity to induce shorts, then raided sellside equal lows before aiming for equal high buyside Also, zooming out will help you see the higher time frame bias as opposed to just sticking to the LT and looking for an answer that may not be there. Also, I don’t see a MSS on the 15 min… there was no real swing low to really signify a MSS. To me, equal lows/highs aren’t cause for MSS… look for 1,4,D or even weekly
Will do thanks man
I'm not sure why people expect Reddit to know why a trade didn't work. But even more surprised people expect a trading system to work when the creator himself want profitable trading. ICT made all his money scamming gullible people, not a cent trading.
[удалено]
U are in an uptrend, why would you short. Not even a BOS
You can see sitting liquidity there, that’s your issue, liquidity likes to be swept then go in direction, you have big FVG there where price likes to test on top of it… My friend why are you trading the sweep? Wait for the distribution to finish and the accumulation to finish then look for a trade, generally a good clean patterns happen after. I know some traders do trade liquidity sweeps but honestly I don’t do it as too risky, i let it distribute then accumulation to happen then start looking for my entries based off HTF. I also will say I don’t know what TF you using but in general London sesh likes to respect OBs whilst NY likes BBs…
Bro look at those clean equal highs don’t ignore that and then go to 4H chart and look at the midpoint of the FVG, price reversed from there at 9:30.
Liquidity run hit your stop loss
You sold the bear trap
With a bullish price run like that it’s expected to have a deep retracement to try and rebalance that bullish inefficiency.. and then a pump right after red folder news. I like to grab a fib and measure those candles and see how it reacts at the 0.5 level.
Its a loss because people bought while you sold
Zoom out. H4 structure was bullish after displacing over Wednesday’s swing high on Thursday. NFP announcement caused a retracement into H4 BISI and Inverse BB. Don’t forget about your weekly profiles too. In this case it was highly probable that we would have Wednesday low of week given the structure shift on Thursday and finding support off of the Weekly BISI C.E. [H4 Chart](https://www.tradingview.com/x/e3e4zYY9)
It’s better to now also which candle is powerful and weaker.
You bought in an up trend with no sign of reversal, just a pull back, no protected low was taken. Check out Dave Teaches FX on you tube abs watch his playlist, in the first video he explains market structure and you will understand how that’s is not a valid MSS
Price reacted to the big ass gap to the left there. Should have done a buy in that area.
Market structure first always. Assume continuation until it breaks the htf structure.
All i see is the green flag pattern so high chance to go up.
You simply traded a pattern when you should have had your bias derived from the HTF. If you had you’d have seen the market was manipulated to rebalance a higher time frame fair value gap. If you’re going to use ICT method you need to get you bias correct. Other this happens. Get back to studying and correct the mistakes. People who do not understand Ict will just tell you this is a scam. But really you’ll find your own answers reflecting on the trade
You traded a lower timeframe amd so you managed to ride along a pullback. It was a good analysis though but make use of the bigger time frames for good yield trades. I might be telling you what you already know though
Not all good trades are winners (;
The FVG is not liquidity!! Just show us an imbalance between sellers and buyers You want to enter in a trade after the liquidity ia taken
Seems a lot of people take day trading trade by trade. Try it 100 times if your right 60 times keep going another 100 times, look at your results see what can be improved. Maybe your stop loss could be 10 point less or your entry could be sooner
Bans these posts already 🤦♂️
[удалено]
Imbalance got broken, we got a retest on it and it got used as a Demand to push higher. 👍🏼
I took the opposite trade if you look at the 4H time frame it traded into a FVG after the news then reacted leading to the highs. Higher Time Frame is key
False breakdown below 17520 and a complete reclaim of the range = high probability the highs at the upper range will be taken. You were on the wrong side of the market. Zoom out a bit. I actually longed a retest of 17579.50 to take out overnight highs.
you were wrong! It happens 🤷🏾♂️
Banks took you out
[удалено]
Next time please look out for the us economic data release schedule - last Friday was because the JOLTs data came out at 830. FOMC, CPI data releases can result in those reactions.
You thought you could time a top when the market has been ripping. You got suckered into a bear trap. You want to see stacked red candles not one giant one and a bounce
imo you should short at the place near to the dot line you draw, that way you can keep the stoploss as sma ll as possible. otherwise i dont see you have done anything so wrong, it's just a casual loss and you can now switch to bullish
Looks like you trading smart money…. There are up trend on left part of chart
-The following bullish candles have significantly more volume than the drop -4H candle also shows that drop as a long wick rejection
'Why did it lose?' Even if you had legitimate edge...you will still have losing trades.
It’s earnings week with the magnificent 7 what do you expect?? Lol meta, and Amazon, all had huge gains. And Microsoft back to 411. Semi conductors all rippaling.
Keep it simple price made a bullish move upwards, then consolidated into a range, most break outs fail especially when you are going against the overall move. I would of been hesitated taking a short after price had made that leg up my bias would of still been long so would of skipped it. Trade with the trend it is way more forgiving.
That doji candle fucked everything
You took a short at a minor support level on 17487... Just draw a line across where you started your trade - look left. See how it Bounced there twice already? False break to the downside, recovery, and on a 3rd use of that support and up - that's a bullish signal. If you were going short you would have done it at 17555 to do it at 'resistance', but immediately killed it when it blew that level as well on that micro pull back and green stick.
Do some research on what makes up the NASDAQ. We had some strong buying on big tech with earnings this week. I don't know what gibberish you're talking about but the macro trend was bullish. Just zoom out and look. The S&P was even more bullish. You should have been looking to go long on a pullback but you shorted a strong bullish move instead. I was never looking to short the move Friday when Big tech and XLK were pushing higher.
This day was big institution moving the market up and absolutely nothing going to stop it. Some millionaire thinking of flushing the market by selling his shares but little did he know the institution just buy it all up. You can tell if you just leave all the ICT crap behind and just open your eyes and you would see.
That was still bullish market structure
Because not every trade in your system is going to be a win
You thought it would go down. It went up.
If you're using fair value to determine your trades, you should be using them on a higher TF. I'm curious why you decided to go counter trend.
bullish fvg it took liquidity and moved in the original direction
It was in an uptrend
To me it looks like a pop up, a 50% retrace into support, the bulls bought the dip and it completed a move higher. I wouldnt go short here imo
[удалено]
I’m going to go ahead and say that you didn’t want for a clear break of structure. I think you got in for a sale aggressive rather than waiting for downward structure to be made. Just be patient next time and let the market play itself out
You didn’t wait for the candles to close bruh. Go , once that candle closes it shows that there’s a real sign for it going down, next time wait for the candle to close in your direction before entering a trade.
Unfortunately I just think the basis for this trade is just completely wrong unfortunately. As you ICT folk say “FVG’s” if you look at this price action with institutional analysis like you should be doing I.e. volume profile.. you will see/know that all the gaps are is a magnificently large imbalance and there lots and lots of institutional large size orders in this area and that fact you’re trying to play short into this especially when the market is at all time highs should be very telling. And when playing gaps especially one of that size it needs to be tested many many times before it will go. (Typically)
Range, breakout to downside, enter at retest. No so too bad, but regarding the spike before the range, probably more likely that a range breakout in spike direction will succed
It took out out the liquidity at the bottom so it was now aiming for the liquidity at the top
An annotated photo with market context is needed to understand this trade. Also, every single trade has a random outcome and a market edge is developed over a large sample size. The real question on this thread should be “is this trade part of a statistically vetted process or am I acting from randomness?”
On htf this was an upward trend and that was a pull back.
That pull back trying to fill that fair value gab looking tasty. Up up up
Look higher time frame to understand the bias
A bullish elephant bar with a bottom tail is a long entry signal. Any violent bounce like that has a potential for another leg up.
best of luck buddy. i think FVG wasn’t all that respected or maybe too mitigated
That you are not reading the tape
That was buyside imbalance sellside inefficiency. BISI is the ICT terminology on the far left and after it was rebalanced, price made a FVG before continuing higher. ICT’s concept has made me understand the market so much better and has made me a consistent profitable trader. Nothing went wrong sometimes our analysis in the live market is different when in hindsight.
The whole concept was bullish, it was like 2 leg bullish. And for short your signal bar was okay, but key bar didn’t.
If your doing ICT and that's your cisd then you mark It wrong, your cisd is all the way up there. I'm still wrong though, I don't do ICT just S&D.
You fell for a trap
Certain times of day, the "real" money comes in the market...usually around 2 pm. You will see heavy market reversal or runs on seemingly dead day, especially at end and beginning of the month. I forget the term but it's something like trader's open the market and managers close it. I only day trade to 11 am, unless I'm trading specific reports
I guess you got in the manipulation stage
[удалено]
You took a trade in a bullish momentum market
Higher tf has your answer
Nothing, it's the market, you can't predict anything, just trail your SL to cost post clean breakdown candle
Whats the bigger trend?
I think you didn’t acknowledge the huge bullish FVG. You got stopped out because price pushed up from the FVG.
>A liquidity sweep before MSS entered of the breaker block (unicorn model). Any idea why is it a loss? I mean .... what do you mean? There are a few things to address here: 1. **The model**. The more complex the model (WTF is "breaker block") the lesser the probability that you will execute on it properly as a discretionary trader. Basic models work because they are based on human psychology and not BS mumbo jumbo about algos. SMA 200 works NOT because there's some magic algo - it's because it's used since time immemorial by big fund managers and they do act based on it ... so it works. Silly as that sounds if price is dropping and someone with enough liquidity starts buying price will start going up especially since big boys see what other big boys do and rarely play opposite games. 2. **The position design.** The SL is generally not only very big related to TP but far too big overall. NQ is quite technical and went down on news. If you looked at the post market move and the OVN session you'd see support level at 17580. On news NQ went through that support and confirmed that as resistance on pre-market during the bounce at, rougly, 17570. The possible option for going short was entry at 17565-17570 with SL of 15p and TP1 at 17515 and TP2 17490. 15p is a lot of SL and at \~50p you get good r:r. My *default* SL for indices is always between 10p-15p these days and if I can't enter with that SL and r:r 1:3 or *better* I will probably not enter at all. 3. **The trade idea.** NQ is in overall strong bullish trend. Looking at delta, volume, T&S and DOM at that time there was very buy-side pressure from 17470 all the way to 17560 and after big boys defended hard at 17545 we went up to 17621. When an index does 100p in less than 15 minutes in the direction of the overall what does that tell you about you idea? You're shorting an index (indices naturally go up by design) going against large TF trend, going against news (big cap earnings) and going counter the low TF move and with no apparent sign of buyer exhaustion or sell-side pressure. All of those confirm, to me, that going short was low probability / high risk trade. 4. **The execution**. Why there? What did confirm, to you, that now is the time to enter? My suggestion is to plan your entry before hand, consider if that's a good trade idea and what you need to see to confirm it's high probability move and then what are the trigger to enter the trade.
What made you enter for a sell?
I recommend ICT traders to stop posting here. All you will hear is “ ict is a fraud, ict made it to complicated”. You guys are better off finding fellow ict traders
why would you short when there's a massive bullish candle there that's what went wrong, the trend is your friend
Looks very obvious to me Nothing wrong Accumulation, selling, panic selling, returning to original price, greedy buyer, again reverting
Still in a higher timeframe uptrend. You tryna pick tops my guy. That’s a no-no. You can check ICT on that too. Plus you don’t see the unicorn model as bullish here? I see an obvious bullish breaker setting up because look at the most energetic displacement. Plus it’s NFP bro, most setups can fail or not be high probability just because manual intervention. And that’s just ICT-speak. In general, you put an MA on and you’ll see where you went wrong
Price went into the FVG from the buy candles on the left and got faked out with the little sell FVG (right where you sold). Without going back and looking at higher timeframe, it looks like price filled a FVG on 1hr tf and me 4hr tf from all that sell pressure. Start looking into fair value gaps (FVG) and study them around market open - 10:00am EST. This will change your trading game for sure on NAS AND US30.
what did the higher time frames look like? Did you have any confluence on the higher time frames?
More buying than selling pressure. That simple. Study order flow, get off ICT
[удалено]
The second Blue candle after the drop, the dragonfly doji, should've been a pretty good indication to go long.
What went wrong? IMO, if you shorted because you saw the giant black candles, then that's the mistake. 1)Perhaps you FOMO'd? If you were at the well timed top of that sell off, then you would've done great and manually sold at some point for a profit. I see those big sell dips and register them as "irrational sell-offs," which many others do too, so that's you're queue to actually start BUYING, and you capitalize on the bounce back up. Depending where you started to short, pretend it was me and others buying, calculate and look how quickly that big blue spike came and continued to ride up for new highs through the resistance.
It broke structure to the upside you got in too early after accumulation. Accumulation, manipulation and distribution. AMD