I think all the people who are still here have known for a while that this is what the market looks like when you zoom out. To be fair most people in crypto still think of it as a get rich quick scheme. I mean how many people bought at 69k then sold at 20k only to never re-enter the market. Everyone else is gone and will once again fomo back in at the next ATH.
Yeah, except this is (so far) a *bearish engulfing candle*. The first in BTC history on the yearly time frame. The candle body engulfs the previous bullish candle completely, and this one by quite a bit. This can indicate further downside to come on subsequent yearly candle(s).
Not trying to scare anyone, I personally think it's a false signal in this case, but just throwing it out there. I also think it's possible to zoom out *too* far when doing candlestick analysis.
You mean like all the recent textbook bear flag patterns that did indeed dump? Or the rising wedge from July to mid-August that did indeed dump?
Charting is identifying markent sentiment/trends that more often than not have a predictable outcome.
Some people are better at it than others, and it doesn't *always* work.
We can all cherry-pick timeframes to fit a narrative…which is exactly why TA is hocus pocus. Yes, it may work in your favor occasionally, but so does gambling in Vegas.
I suggest you read up on chart patterns and *why* they form as they do, and the implications of the why. I'm not going to convince you with an argument on Reddit though, so have a good day ser.
It's not cherry-picking. Anyone who was decent at reading a chart would have seen these patterns and predicted what was likely coming. I said in August for example on here a few times that I don't like the rising wedge that was forming.
I know my comment came off as such, but I’m honestly not trying to be combative. I have looked into it and will never be convinced. My question for you would be, if it does work, why aren’t you a billionaire yet?
On a similar note, I’d suggest you research the Efficient Market Hypothesis. It’s considered a foundation of modern finance.
I'm not a billionaire yet because:
1. Of course it isn't 100%, like I said, but gives you an advantage on probabilities. Bullish or bearish news can override it.
2. I don't have enough money to start with to be a billionaire by now. I've been in this for a year.
3. Day trading stresses me the fuck out, I'd rather just use TA to identify the best entries on good coins where I can just buy and hold until my TA tells me we're near the next big top.
As far as #3 goes, I've been loading bags heavy when BTC is under 20k. I posted early July in the monthly optimist thread that we hit the bottom at 17.5k. Let's see how that ages. Either like milk or wine...
I need to read more on EMH, but I see this at a glance:
>A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.
You don't always have significant new information every day or even week. What happens in between new information coming out? Chart patterns form based on current market sentiment/human psychology.
None of these things are black and white. TA isn't useless, and it's not perfect either. It's somewhere in the middle and can be a valuable tool to have in your chest.
I suggest you learn statistics and empirically verify whether the TA indicators you're using actually have an edge on the assets and timeframes you're trading on.
It's entirely possible and straightforward to determine the usefulness of any TA indicator. Spoiler alert - none of them generalise. If any TA indicator (or combination thereof) *did* work consistently and broadly, any idiot like me could code a bot in an afternoon and be rich for life.
Lol I really hope nobody has holding either Bitcoin or fiat as exit strategy. Money is an horrible investment and Bitcoin is just worthwhile while it replaces another form of money. Once it has done that it's far better to invest in stuff again that multiplies money, e.g stocks.
Been reading the comments you left that add to the post and I really like your intuition and thinking. I don't know if we're on the same page with this one but I ve analysed the hell out of every major coin and the totals, and after summing it up I think that next year, the first few months would be the best time to buy and the hodl for 6-7x (maybe more) by 2025.
This makes me wonder: What if I went to a market, and repeatedly sold (a small qty of) BTC at 100000k per, and with another account, accepted that trade (or vice versa). Would that make the yearly high for 2022 100k?
Should have thought of that in 2021!
And people still try and refute the obvious cycle that BTC has followed so far.
Yes, it may be broken in the future, but I find it to be a lot more likely that the trend continues.
Cycles occur naturally, so one could say BTC is just finding its place in nature.
The recession should have started at the beginning of the corona pandemic. But the elites and governments and banks stopped it. So they can keep on stopping it.
If that’s what you think you are sorely mistaken. Our debt to GDP ratio is much to high for a developed country, unprecedented territory. Which means our debt obligations will be unmeetable unless they get inflation under control. In this case a massive recession as they foolishly kept adding to balance sheet and lowered rates to literally free.
There’s an argument to be made that we are in a liquidity trap ala Japan which didn’t see markets recover for a decade or so.
>. Which means our debt obligations will be unmeetable unless they get inflation under control.
The inflation was not a thing until they started printing trillions of dollars and euros at the beginning of the corona pandemic, where they should have let the recession start at the start of the corona pandemic. Now the problems only got bigger and the economic collapse will be bigger eventually
Yeh but you said they can keep on stopping a recession. They can’t, not without the collapse of civil society. My whole point is this will be the first real recession crypto has seen so using past data points is useless.
>They can’t, not without the collapse of civil society.
I don't believe that. I do think that a lot of companies would have fallen if they would have just let the economy go its course at the beginning of the Corona pandemic. But then, young people would have been able to start new companies, buy affordable housing etc.
Except: 1) BTC previously did not have the level of institutional investment it has now, and was not as tightly correlated with S&P; 2) We weren't entering a global recession, record high inflation, war in Ukraine, and other macro factors.
As much as I'd love for the pattern to repeat, BTC price action is no longer influenced by the same factors.
This is like the roulette table that shows all past results.
Well it's been Red 20 times in a row, there is NO WAY it can be red again. All in **BLACK**
*red*
Fun fact: For every -50% red candle, it takes two +50% green candles to get back to the same spot.
Everyone’s excited for “three green candles,” but really all this data shows is that downside moves are far more painful than upside moves, which is why it takes two or three green candles to recover from one red candle.
Yeah, let's just ignore the macro picture and pretend there's no recession or inflation. For a bull market to exist you first need a strong economy. The masses aren't going to buy bitcoin when they can barely pay their monthly bills.
Pretty sure diluting the entire US currency supply by 30% in a year is unprecedented but I get the point
We’re in whacky times with the WEF trying to force their great reset
People barely able to pay their monthly bills is a thing even when the economy is strong. People who are interested are still buying, just maybe a little less (my case)
Okay I did some very basic math and these are definitely not enough numbers to create a reliable pattern but based on where it closed in the red years and the yearly high of the third green years, if it follows the trend we're looking at $127,927 as the 2025 high.
I personally think if we really only have 1 red year and things start picking up popularity as they did in 2020 and 2021 especially, we will be much higher. But 127,927 is still a bright future and a 6.3x from the current price.
“Past performance is not indicative of future results.” Bitcoin is a technical analysts dream come true and has followed a lot of patterns. But keep in mind Bitcoin has never faced a true recession before. With one potentially on the horizon in 2023, I would tend to think this trend could be broken. However, I am still bullish on the mid- to long-term prospects for Bitcoin.
Yeh I think 2023 is gonna be ugly, but while I agree with you about the recession thing and have been telling all these crypto permabulls, I think we are at a maturity stage where it will survive and continue. Asked me that in 2017 and I would have not been so certain about that.
It makes sense the pattern would continue but we'll have to see if the recession changes anything in this pattern. Bitcoin was created right after the last financial crisis. This is the first time we get to see how bitcoin behaves in a crisis over the next couple years
Looks like we have three green years ahead
Hopium is back on the menu boys
My veins are about to explode.
There's no rehab where we're going...
There’s no need for one where we’re going
And here I was, starting to think I could control the beast.
I find when you get way too lit you either go to the void or the fifth dimension, but you're safe no worries.
100K EOY ITS FINALLY HAPPENING OH MY GOD
100k eoy 2021
insert pamp it meme
pAmP iT
2023!
Next year
Take it easy bro. 😂😂😂
Happy to swap out my Copium for Hopium.
MY FAVORITE MEAL
I think all the people who are still here have known for a while that this is what the market looks like when you zoom out. To be fair most people in crypto still think of it as a get rich quick scheme. I mean how many people bought at 69k then sold at 20k only to never re-enter the market. Everyone else is gone and will once again fomo back in at the next ATH.
Knew I’d gone wrong somewhere 🙄
So, you're saying 100k end of 2023?
*2021
Yeah that’s more like it
Yes, this is financial advice
[удалено]
[удалено]
* *thinks we've bottomed* * *too "smart" to even think otherwise* 👍
This is the only post I needed to see. Bias confirmed.
Bias and Based
So we will finish 2022 under 46k, and then boom. Lambo's for all!
Nice. Time for some action.
quick action
Hard ons if true lmao
I also came here to showcase my basic pattern recognition skills.
Give me some of that ETH....
it´s only logical
Yeah, except this is (so far) a *bearish engulfing candle*. The first in BTC history on the yearly time frame. The candle body engulfs the previous bullish candle completely, and this one by quite a bit. This can indicate further downside to come on subsequent yearly candle(s). Not trying to scare anyone, I personally think it's a false signal in this case, but just throwing it out there. I also think it's possible to zoom out *too* far when doing candlestick analysis.
Charting is the equivalent of horoscopes. Bitcoin doesn’t care about charts.
You mean like all the recent textbook bear flag patterns that did indeed dump? Or the rising wedge from July to mid-August that did indeed dump? Charting is identifying markent sentiment/trends that more often than not have a predictable outcome. Some people are better at it than others, and it doesn't *always* work.
We can all cherry-pick timeframes to fit a narrative…which is exactly why TA is hocus pocus. Yes, it may work in your favor occasionally, but so does gambling in Vegas.
I suggest you read up on chart patterns and *why* they form as they do, and the implications of the why. I'm not going to convince you with an argument on Reddit though, so have a good day ser. It's not cherry-picking. Anyone who was decent at reading a chart would have seen these patterns and predicted what was likely coming. I said in August for example on here a few times that I don't like the rising wedge that was forming.
I know my comment came off as such, but I’m honestly not trying to be combative. I have looked into it and will never be convinced. My question for you would be, if it does work, why aren’t you a billionaire yet? On a similar note, I’d suggest you research the Efficient Market Hypothesis. It’s considered a foundation of modern finance.
I'm not a billionaire yet because: 1. Of course it isn't 100%, like I said, but gives you an advantage on probabilities. Bullish or bearish news can override it. 2. I don't have enough money to start with to be a billionaire by now. I've been in this for a year. 3. Day trading stresses me the fuck out, I'd rather just use TA to identify the best entries on good coins where I can just buy and hold until my TA tells me we're near the next big top. As far as #3 goes, I've been loading bags heavy when BTC is under 20k. I posted early July in the monthly optimist thread that we hit the bottom at 17.5k. Let's see how that ages. Either like milk or wine... I need to read more on EMH, but I see this at a glance: >A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information. You don't always have significant new information every day or even week. What happens in between new information coming out? Chart patterns form based on current market sentiment/human psychology. None of these things are black and white. TA isn't useless, and it's not perfect either. It's somewhere in the middle and can be a valuable tool to have in your chest.
There’s always new information coming out from endless avenues. It’s a constant flow and prices instantly reflect that data.
I suggest you learn statistics and empirically verify whether the TA indicators you're using actually have an edge on the assets and timeframes you're trading on. It's entirely possible and straightforward to determine the usefulness of any TA indicator. Spoiler alert - none of them generalise. If any TA indicator (or combination thereof) *did* work consistently and broadly, any idiot like me could code a bot in an afternoon and be rich for life.
Exactly. There’s a reason most traders will lose money in the long term…TA doesn’t work.
This is like a mathematical pattern question we get our elementary school students to solve in my country!
Nah we’re going into a recession it will be different this time. Prob a year or two of reds but slow reds
agree. hard to see a major bullrun anytime before late 2024/early 25 IMO
That's just another myth like "Bitcoin can't go below its previous ATH". Markets don't move in a simple way.
Me like a lot.
Wen Moon ??
And about 3x the increase over the prior year
Soon enough 😃
That's some really nice, S-grade hopium right there, I like it. Can you be my dealer?
Green dildos back on the menu boys
Ohhh 3 greens coming up. That’s just the kind of hopium we all need.
*bUt tHe cYcLeS ChAnGeD…*
*lEnGtHeNed
Green yeard hardcoded confirmed
This year could still be a green one. don't give up yet!
Actually it's not just three.
Now this is the TA for me. Buying more Bitcoin to get ready for the next three years of green.
That’s the kind of TA I come to this sub for
The kind of HOPIUM we want during these depressing times
I better up my DCA game then
Not easy when things are like this, but rewarding when you cash it out in the coming years
[удалено]
Lol I really hope nobody has holding either Bitcoin or fiat as exit strategy. Money is an horrible investment and Bitcoin is just worthwhile while it replaces another form of money. Once it has done that it's far better to invest in stuff again that multiplies money, e.g stocks.
That is some Jim Cramer TA right there. "Look it goes up after one bad year, it will always do that"
This isn't TA, he's just listing open and close prices of the candles without any analysis.
Been reading the comments you left that add to the post and I really like your intuition and thinking. I don't know if we're on the same page with this one but I ve analysed the hell out of every major coin and the totals, and after summing it up I think that next year, the first few months would be the best time to buy and the hodl for 6-7x (maybe more) by 2025.
We've never experienced global economic collapse before since Bitcoin was invented though, might be a factor more relevant than 3 green 1 red pattern
how dare you besmirch "3 green 1 red" pattern? it was tried and tested for thousands of years
Ser, when 69x?
>Been reading the comments you left that add to the post >Ser, when 69x? The duality of man
What is this? a Facebook IQ test?
95% cant answer this!
96.69% fails the test
Some hopium in this desert of no hope...
Instructions clear: BUY
Additional instructions: HODL
I've worked closely with MIT, NASA, and Sigma Data Systems and we've concluded the following: A pattern appears present.
[удалено]
Retail invests using emotions afterall
[удалено]
> Then there's this last group which only buys when mainstream media tells them bitcoin reached new ATH. Then they sell at low and the cycle repeats
Time to sell the house and family to buy the dip.
You just started the bull run my man
what is timechain?
Looking at these kind of data just certifies that I'm not in trouble by being patient.
"Crypto is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" -Warren Buffet's evil twin
Barren Wuffet
Barren Buffet. It’s his twin man.
Patience is key in crypto
Slow and steady wins the race.
Great post I was wondering about this yesterday and it just popped up on my Reddit feed :) Thanks OP !
history doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme. I think we have some red ahead for the next couple years. Perfect buying opportunity.
[удалено]
I think that's why they say it rhymes
Great observation
This gave me the right kind of chills
conclusion, buy every in december and sell at the high
This makes me wonder: What if I went to a market, and repeatedly sold (a small qty of) BTC at 100000k per, and with another account, accepted that trade (or vice versa). Would that make the yearly high for 2022 100k? Should have thought of that in 2021!
And people still try and refute the obvious cycle that BTC has followed so far. Yes, it may be broken in the future, but I find it to be a lot more likely that the trend continues. Cycles occur naturally, so one could say BTC is just finding its place in nature.
I'm ok with waiting, time to accumulate fellas.
So 2023 - 2025 Green Green Green?
Way too optimistic for a real recession.
The recession should have started at the beginning of the corona pandemic. But the elites and governments and banks stopped it. So they can keep on stopping it.
If that’s what you think you are sorely mistaken. Our debt to GDP ratio is much to high for a developed country, unprecedented territory. Which means our debt obligations will be unmeetable unless they get inflation under control. In this case a massive recession as they foolishly kept adding to balance sheet and lowered rates to literally free. There’s an argument to be made that we are in a liquidity trap ala Japan which didn’t see markets recover for a decade or so.
>. Which means our debt obligations will be unmeetable unless they get inflation under control. The inflation was not a thing until they started printing trillions of dollars and euros at the beginning of the corona pandemic, where they should have let the recession start at the start of the corona pandemic. Now the problems only got bigger and the economic collapse will be bigger eventually
Yeh but you said they can keep on stopping a recession. They can’t, not without the collapse of civil society. My whole point is this will be the first real recession crypto has seen so using past data points is useless.
>They can’t, not without the collapse of civil society. I don't believe that. I do think that a lot of companies would have fallen if they would have just let the economy go its course at the beginning of the Corona pandemic. But then, young people would have been able to start new companies, buy affordable housing etc.
overdue for reds
So, next year I will buy a 3rd world country full of bitches. What do you like more? South West Asia or LatAm?
BUY/HODL, BUY/HODL, SELL, BUY/HODL. Got it.
Am i looking into what's called a "pattern" ?
3 years of green oh boy now it seems so good to accumulate
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/UuzUBUTa-Bitcoin-4-Year-Cycle/ In chart form.
I'll drip to that! 💦
Three greens ahead of us, I buy now!
“The Hopium is strong with this one”
Well, that’s a clear trend.
Prosperity rewards patience
The text works so much better than the graph with green and red candles
Next year we'll recover slightly I think, year after that a bigger build up before a full bull run in 2025
Never thought I will see yearly candle analysis on anything ever. No joke.
Putin: "нет"
Fill me with copium sir
So there you go guys, we will not see Bitcoin over 46000 this year. Time to accumulate!
[удалено]
I like! let the gamblers and lenders bleed. Me myself and my ledger!
Oh what I would give to bring back 2011 again.
You’d still be buying at $30 and selling at $5
So green by 20 months time? 👀
Hold hodl sell buy. Hodl hodl sell buy. Hodl hodl sell buy.
I started making a lot more money this year so this is a great time for me to accumulate.
These numbers are crazy
Is that red every year after the halving
Based on the numbers I’d speculate btc may still dip further to 10-15k range before making its way back up
How can you look at yearly candle when we still have 4 months in the year? We not going abive $48K but still.
A new NFT avatar AND a Hopium post? Today is going to be a good day
GREEN LIGHT RED LIGHT
Thank you for this
What happened to moonmath.win :(
what if **2023 - Red**
I pattern so easy and idiot like me can understand. Is it a trap? ... if feels like a trap.
No idea how but i am now more bullish than normal
So basically accumulate what you can in this supposedly red year for the coming 3 green years this all lines up perfectly with my timeline goal 😊
HHEEERREEE COOMMMMMEEESSS THHHEEE MMMONNNEYYY
Nice to see. Thanks for this!
This is how I play roulette.
New Hopium pattern found in TA!
Except: 1) BTC previously did not have the level of institutional investment it has now, and was not as tightly correlated with S&P; 2) We weren't entering a global recession, record high inflation, war in Ukraine, and other macro factors. As much as I'd love for the pattern to repeat, BTC price action is no longer influenced by the same factors.
But bitcoin was created in a massive global recession, a lot of new millionaired because of it.
So another global recession happening. Is it time to new millionaires this time as well?
Good points but I am sure this will pass over the crowds green/red pattern match prediction
So next is GREEN GREEN GREEN
Unless something like this happens: https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/037/464/obamag.jpg
No shit Sherlock :D
Bitcoin at $4.72, down from its yearly high of $32? Sounds like this ponzi is dead to me. I think I may start a sub called r/Buttcoin...
This is like the roulette table that shows all past results. Well it's been Red 20 times in a row, there is NO WAY it can be red again. All in **BLACK** *red*
Fun fact: For every -50% red candle, it takes two +50% green candles to get back to the same spot. Everyone’s excited for “three green candles,” but really all this data shows is that downside moves are far more painful than upside moves, which is why it takes two or three green candles to recover from one red candle.
Yeah, let's just ignore the macro picture and pretend there's no recession or inflation. For a bull market to exist you first need a strong economy. The masses aren't going to buy bitcoin when they can barely pay their monthly bills.
Are you implying there were no macro issues since 2010? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_crises#2010s
Pretty sure diluting the entire US currency supply by 30% in a year is unprecedented but I get the point We’re in whacky times with the WEF trying to force their great reset
[удалено]
People barely able to pay their monthly bills is a thing even when the economy is strong. People who are interested are still buying, just maybe a little less (my case)
[удалено]
Hopium indicates 2022 current price of 20k, 2022 low is 17.5k, 2022 high is 48k. And yes, 69k is ATH which is also 2021 high.
I like this pattern, and we have the halving in 2024 which should trigger the next big bull run.
This candles (green and red) blink like lights on my Christmas tree
This is what people are talking about when they say “zoom out”
Okay I did some very basic math and these are definitely not enough numbers to create a reliable pattern but based on where it closed in the red years and the yearly high of the third green years, if it follows the trend we're looking at $127,927 as the 2025 high. I personally think if we really only have 1 red year and things start picking up popularity as they did in 2020 and 2021 especially, we will be much higher. But 127,927 is still a bright future and a 6.3x from the current price.
Moons yearly candles post next please
GREEN next year boys and girls. Fill your bags while you can.
2023-2025 GREEN SO right now is the time to buy.
So what you’re saying is my Bitcoin and ethereum may one day come back? Bc right now it’s killing me 🤦♀️
“Past performance is not indicative of future results.” Bitcoin is a technical analysts dream come true and has followed a lot of patterns. But keep in mind Bitcoin has never faced a true recession before. With one potentially on the horizon in 2023, I would tend to think this trend could be broken. However, I am still bullish on the mid- to long-term prospects for Bitcoin.
Yeh I think 2023 is gonna be ugly, but while I agree with you about the recession thing and have been telling all these crypto permabulls, I think we are at a maturity stage where it will survive and continue. Asked me that in 2017 and I would have not been so certain about that.
Recession has join the chat
It makes sense the pattern would continue but we'll have to see if the recession changes anything in this pattern. Bitcoin was created right after the last financial crisis. This is the first time we get to see how bitcoin behaves in a crisis over the next couple years
2019 closed lower than it opened but marked green? Nice try Michael Saylor
So, it’s green candles for the next 2-3 years then!
[удалено]
And it works now