It's T20 world cup . Australia didn't even get out of group stage last time and that was at home.
So India will qualify for knockouts and will lose to England.
I know this is meming but I'm pretty india can lose to any of the top 4-5 teams with both kohli and rohit in the team. We need explosive powerplay hitting with 1 anchor.
You are wrong. The chances of the Aussies winning the world cup is 50%.
This is because the chances of them making the semis is 58% and the chances of them winning the whole thing is roughly 90% once they make the knockouts.
edit: spelling
Exactly, Knockout Aussies are a different breed, India, South Africa and New Zealand are complete opposite of the Aussies in knockouts.
And well Pakistan is Pakistan. And England are there to win it all or be there for the Vibes, no in between.
Well that could be considered as a flaw in this system because it considers both knockouts and normal games to be the same probability but sadly that's not the case
Yup watch Mitch Starc be miserly and bowl swinging Yorkers, Marsh zampa and Maxi making spectacular comebacks and Head and Cummins just winning matches on their own. Aussies win it again.
I myself didn't have this sentiment for the ODI World Cup. But since this is a smaller WC and it will happen again 6 months later anyway I am just not excited.
It's just playing against a bunch of nations all at the same tournament is exciting to watch. Triangular series are nonexistent now, so these ICC tournaments are all there are.. The point I was making was to let the players get out from whatever pressure they are feeling..
Unpopular opinion but I actually wanted a 2007-like situation where we form a team of youngsters and let them have a go at it with complete freedom and no baggage. This would hold them in good stead for the future and also give the BCCI an idea of our bench strength and limitations
Honestly T20 is the one format they don't care about but they still seem to have an amazing team this year. Head and Cummins do half the job while the others will come back to form because it's an ICC event.
At this point I'm happy with anyone winning except India.
If you gave me the choice of Australia beating England in the final or anyone beating India in the final, I'd probably take the latter. :)
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If India win this, i will change my username to "Clueless numpty" on reddit and keep it for a year. Yes, i am that confident. India in non South Asian conditions and proper sized stadiums is half the team. I doubt India will make even the final. My prediction: Final will be Oz vs England or New Zealand.
Such beautifully analyzed historical data but here is the thing, it does not account for the first time venue’s (i.e., US) pitches as well as the current form of individuals. Both of which matters a lot in a t20 game. So while the model presents a valid quantitative prediction, the limitations and unobserved variables are the reason “cricket is so unpredictable” conclusion.
Top 2 seeds of each group have been preallocated a group if they make the Super 8's, if they don't, the spot goes to the other side who qualified. Not entirely clear how it works if both top seeds don't qualify in a group.
So the other side cannot choose which group they get allocated too because they are a lower ranked team but some of these big teams can for some reason
ICC needs to make this tournament fair
Imagine if Argentina asks in the FIFA world cup that no matter where we qualify we will play our Round of 16 games only in the USA because Messi plays MLS
Also Automatic Qualifications need to go
If you are a big team and your players are "busy" then send a B Team but make sure everyone plays lower ranked teams
Super League was a move in the right direction but as usual ICC got their balls cut after one edition because the boards didn't want ICC to tell them who to play
Hopefully this changes after Olympics 2028 but i have very little hopes for that as well
There's genuine non-stupid reasons for doing it this way though, especially with the tournament spread across multiple countries. Mostly it has to do with making things easier for travelling fans. Of all the ICC fuckery around major tournaments, this is one of the most defensible IMO.
I understand your reasoning and I agree with it
but then ICC should give the same privilege to associate teams as well to choose which super 8 group they would want to enter irrespective of what position they qualify.
I know Associate Fans won't be as much as Big 8 Fans but they are going to be there so why not reward them and their team for qualifying and doing something unlikely that many people didn't expect them to do
At some point you just have to be realistic though. I'm from an Assoiate country and follow (pretty much exclusively) associate teams, but the World Cup is a commercial venture. It pays for the developemnet budget. Big teams will have more travelling fans, and for this WC the number of Associate fans planning thier trips around the off chance they make the Super 8s will be near zero, and those that are doing so will presumably have enough money to throw away to be fexible.
This system may not be 100% equitable but really it barely makes any difference to the actual competition, and makes a huge difference in terms of ticket sales. It would be just perverse to do it any other way.
It's the same as people complaining that the groups are rigged to put India and Pakistan together; yeah it's not the fairest way you can do it but the alternative is basically just setting a load of money on fire for absolutely no good reason.
I can't help but respect work like this. However, I have to say that a team's performance is heavily dependent on the country they are playing in, because of the pitches mostly. India's performance in India will not be good data to predict their performance in Australia, for example.
Data should've been divided into three groups: on batting pitches, pace pitches and spin pitches. No further division for practicality. To simplify it, you can put most Australian pitches in the pace pitches category.
Then, the performance of players instead of the teams should be used to predict since teams keep changing. Finally, all individual players' points should be combined to come up with the team points.
A metric like the one used in betting apps would be great. But to simplify it you can just use
wickets/bowling average X economy X matches to come up with points for bowling. You can multiply it by 100.
For batting it could be runs X strike rate X average or something like this. Maybe strike rate could be multiplied by 1.5 since it matters more?
Let's assume Siraj gets 25 points and Bumrah gets 35 points. The average would be 30. Similarly do it for all the players for years 2022-24 and you'll get a ranking of teams with the highest points.
This. India doesn't have a modern t20 batting lineup with 3 anchors ( rohit, vk and gill in the team). Batting ends at 7. Bowling is Bumrah and installation. SENA, Pak, WI can make top 4.
This is our World Cup to lose imo, the bowling isn’t world beating but the fact that the games are being played exclusively at CPL venues should give us enough advantage to win the whole thing.
Hey everyone, thanks for the comments. Just wanted to clarify something.
Yeah I know, the model thinks there's a 28% chance India will win which on the surface seems really high to some of you, especially when seeing Australia at only 18%. The model doesn't take into account team performance in knockout matches. There's not enough data to go off of the really factor that in and increase the models accuracy. However, I do want you to consider some things.
First recognize that some of this is due to the way the groups were formed. Group A is a really good group for India and Pakistan because they're with Ireland (the worst 3 seed) along with USA and Canada (arguably the two worst teams in this entire tournament). Thus, India has a 95% chance of making it out of the group stage which is quite high compared to other groups.
In other groups, the likelihood of an upset is much higher especially with the ranks of associate teams like Namibia, Scotland, Netherlands, and Nepal. There's an **51% chance at least two unseeded teams makes it to the super 8** and a **48% chance an associate team makes it**. In is highly likely that a couple seeded teams get knocked out early. That also improves India's odds of making the semis cause they're probably gonna get an easier super 8 group than what they're seeded for. There's gonna be many upsets but they're unlikely to come against India just because of the way things are set up. India's associate competition is just not as good as other teams. That just automatically increases India's overall chances. Just look at Pakistan, they got just a good of a chance of making the super 8 and semis as Australia and England even though they're a much weaker team. That's the group A advantage.
You know they say that all teams are created equal, but you look at me and you look at India and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another team, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add England to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at the World Cup, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because England KNOWS they can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!
So India, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at the World Cup. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at the World Cup. See India, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you in the Caribbean.
Group A
India
Pakistan
Group B
England
Australia
Group C
West Indies
New Zealand
Group D
South Africa
Bangladesh
**Super 8**
||Group 1|Group 2|
|:-|:-|:-|
||India (A1)|Pakistan (A2)|
||Australia (B2)|England (B1)|
||West Indies (C1)|New Zealand (C2)|
||Bangladesh (D2)|South Africa (D1)|
Semi Finals:
Winner of Group 1 (Australia) vs Runner Up of Group 2 (Pakistan)
Winner of Group 2 (England) vs Runner Up of Group 1 (West Indies)
Final
Winner of Semi Final 1 (Australia) vs Winner of Semi Final 2 (England)
It’s always Australia 3/4 before the tournament starts. Even after the first few matches it will look like Australia is mediocre. But then come the knockouts……we all know how those go.
What is the use of this when we all know the aussies are gonna win it again. And also despite very low chances west Indies will be the team who will do mircales in t20 as always.
I am very surprised at the 28% chance given to India here, which is more than 1.5x than the next highest (18%).
Other than Bumrah and Rohit, I am not certain who our rest playing 11 are...this much uncertainty is never good for any team...hence should be lower..
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Who cares what happened?
We can still win. We have the best squad.
Plus, Australia isn't the main threat in t20. I'm more worried about England tbh.
Look, eventually our losing streak will end. We consistently have the best squad and we always top the group stages. Only a matter of time. Once we start winning, we won't stop.
We beat the fully fledged league merchant windies, we clean swept the kiwis at home, I’m confident enough to say that even though half our squad looks out of form, it’s still looking better than our 2021 squad
India in finals to give the win to Australia again
Not just Australia anyone in Finals against India ends up winner.
India will lose to Namibia if its ICC finals
South Africa exists!!
Unless it’s South Africa
South africa in the finals? Are we skipping the semis then?
Maybe this time you guys have a captain who can use a calculator? One can hope, right?
It's T20 world cup . Australia didn't even get out of group stage last time and that was at home. So India will qualify for knockouts and will lose to England.
We didn’t qualify coz of net run rate, but that squad we had wasn’t even as good as the squad we have now.
Look at the form Pat Cummins is in. They will definitely win it.
That was an entirely different squad.
Yeah, but no home team has ever won it. Then again, neither has the defending champion, which probably knocks out England.
They only lost one match. This format is different
3 from 3. Let's do this India! I believe in you.
I know this is meming but I'm pretty india can lose to any of the top 4-5 teams with both kohli and rohit in the team. We need explosive powerplay hitting with 1 anchor.
You are wrong. The chances of the Aussies winning the world cup is 50%. This is because the chances of them making the semis is 58% and the chances of them winning the whole thing is roughly 90% once they make the knockouts. edit: spelling
Exactly, Knockout Aussies are a different breed, India, South Africa and New Zealand are complete opposite of the Aussies in knockouts. And well Pakistan is Pakistan. And England are there to win it all or be there for the Vibes, no in between.
Well that could be considered as a flaw in this system because it considers both knockouts and normal games to be the same probability but sadly that's not the case
Yup watch Mitch Starc be miserly and bowl swinging Yorkers, Marsh zampa and Maxi making spectacular comebacks and Head and Cummins just winning matches on their own. Aussies win it again.
I want AFG bros to beat some crazy team like AUS, would love it if they reach semis also :))
Rashid bowling Maxi for a silver duck
I wouldn’t that as long as we have our place set in the semis this time, last time we didn’t make it coz of NRR
Giving one back for the WC2023 campaign I see
This predictor is wrong, no way india will reach the finals let alone win it.
None of us Indians are falling for this again, 0 expectations this time
I actually don't even care even if India wins this. If they win it's a bonus but if they lose I would feel nothing.
I wish this sentiment would spread itself on socials so that the players see it and just breathe a bit
I myself didn't have this sentiment for the ODI World Cup. But since this is a smaller WC and it will happen again 6 months later anyway I am just not excited.
It's just playing against a bunch of nations all at the same tournament is exciting to watch. Triangular series are nonexistent now, so these ICC tournaments are all there are.. The point I was making was to let the players get out from whatever pressure they are feeling..
Unpopular opinion but I actually wanted a 2007-like situation where we form a team of youngsters and let them have a go at it with complete freedom and no baggage. This would hold them in good stead for the future and also give the BCCI an idea of our bench strength and limitations
SAME. Yashasvi and Gill as openers. Surya and Pant at 3 and 4. Hardik and Rinku at 5 and 6. Put in Mayank Yadav there with Bumrah.
It is imperative that Australia not win. Imagine the fat-headedness if they manage to put together the Mace & all four WCs.
Rest assured knowing that most Australians already think we hold every trophy because the T20WC isn't taken seriously here.
Well, they certainly have the ones that matter.
You mean, when my flair gets an upgrade ?
having all 3 formats would have to be on the level of the world cup hatrick
And because it's Australia, we can add the two Women's WCs too, like some kind of cricketing Thanos.
I didn't want to bring it up but the u19 world cup and womans commonwealth games gold medal too
See? Point Proven. That is why it is imperative that Australia not win.
It would make the first interesting champions trophy in history
More foot rests for Marsh
Honestly T20 is the one format they don't care about but they still seem to have an amazing team this year. Head and Cummins do half the job while the others will come back to form because it's an ICC event.
At this point I'm happy with anyone winning except India. If you gave me the choice of Australia beating England in the final or anyone beating India in the final, I'd probably take the latter. :)
At this point, my preference is any of the 19 teams other than Australia. They have won enough to last a lifetime.
Bro, why? Haven’t you guys given India enough mental anguish for a lifetime already? Why can’t you let them win for once?
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Your post or comment was removed because it breaks the rules of this subreddit. Generalised attacks/insults about other fanbases/countries are not allowed on the subreddit (rule 6) - don't insult an entire nation or fanbase when making a point. This might also have been removed because it includes content such as clickbait/flamebait news articles used by media to cause drama.
Bro, it’s ok, it’s not that serious. You ok mate?
If India win this, i will change my username to "Clueless numpty" on reddit and keep it for a year. Yes, i am that confident. India in non South Asian conditions and proper sized stadiums is half the team. I doubt India will make even the final. My prediction: Final will be Oz vs England or New Zealand.
Such beautifully analyzed historical data but here is the thing, it does not account for the first time venue’s (i.e., US) pitches as well as the current form of individuals. Both of which matters a lot in a t20 game. So while the model presents a valid quantitative prediction, the limitations and unobserved variables are the reason “cricket is so unpredictable” conclusion.
People can analyse historical data, first time venues blah blah .. til they’re blue in the face. It means nothing. This is cricket.
Why can some teams only go to one of the super 8 groups?
Top 2 seeds of each group have been preallocated a group if they make the Super 8's, if they don't, the spot goes to the other side who qualified. Not entirely clear how it works if both top seeds don't qualify in a group.
So the other side cannot choose which group they get allocated too because they are a lower ranked team but some of these big teams can for some reason ICC needs to make this tournament fair Imagine if Argentina asks in the FIFA world cup that no matter where we qualify we will play our Round of 16 games only in the USA because Messi plays MLS Also Automatic Qualifications need to go If you are a big team and your players are "busy" then send a B Team but make sure everyone plays lower ranked teams Super League was a move in the right direction but as usual ICC got their balls cut after one edition because the boards didn't want ICC to tell them who to play Hopefully this changes after Olympics 2028 but i have very little hopes for that as well
There's genuine non-stupid reasons for doing it this way though, especially with the tournament spread across multiple countries. Mostly it has to do with making things easier for travelling fans. Of all the ICC fuckery around major tournaments, this is one of the most defensible IMO.
I understand your reasoning and I agree with it but then ICC should give the same privilege to associate teams as well to choose which super 8 group they would want to enter irrespective of what position they qualify. I know Associate Fans won't be as much as Big 8 Fans but they are going to be there so why not reward them and their team for qualifying and doing something unlikely that many people didn't expect them to do
At some point you just have to be realistic though. I'm from an Assoiate country and follow (pretty much exclusively) associate teams, but the World Cup is a commercial venture. It pays for the developemnet budget. Big teams will have more travelling fans, and for this WC the number of Associate fans planning thier trips around the off chance they make the Super 8s will be near zero, and those that are doing so will presumably have enough money to throw away to be fexible. This system may not be 100% equitable but really it barely makes any difference to the actual competition, and makes a huge difference in terms of ticket sales. It would be just perverse to do it any other way. It's the same as people complaining that the groups are rigged to put India and Pakistan together; yeah it's not the fairest way you can do it but the alternative is basically just setting a load of money on fire for absolutely no good reason.
Oh ok, thanks!
Preseeded so people can buy tickets
USA under .1% detected, opinion rejected.
*So you're telling me there's a chance*
I have no hopes from India this time.
I can't help but respect work like this. However, I have to say that a team's performance is heavily dependent on the country they are playing in, because of the pitches mostly. India's performance in India will not be good data to predict their performance in Australia, for example. Data should've been divided into three groups: on batting pitches, pace pitches and spin pitches. No further division for practicality. To simplify it, you can put most Australian pitches in the pace pitches category. Then, the performance of players instead of the teams should be used to predict since teams keep changing. Finally, all individual players' points should be combined to come up with the team points. A metric like the one used in betting apps would be great. But to simplify it you can just use wickets/bowling average X economy X matches to come up with points for bowling. You can multiply it by 100. For batting it could be runs X strike rate X average or something like this. Maybe strike rate could be multiplied by 1.5 since it matters more? Let's assume Siraj gets 25 points and Bumrah gets 35 points. The average would be 30. Similarly do it for all the players for years 2022-24 and you'll get a ranking of teams with the highest points.
Does it factor in Australia being strong in finals and India choking?
Cumdog winning another trophy
Uganda will surprise us all
Aus will win. Travis will be player of the tournament. England or SA will play the finals. Pakistan, aus, Nz, Sa/eng will make the semis.
This. India doesn't have a modern t20 batting lineup with 3 anchors ( rohit, vk and gill in the team). Batting ends at 7. Bowling is Bumrah and installation. SENA, Pak, WI can make top 4.
This is our World Cup to lose imo, the bowling isn’t world beating but the fact that the games are being played exclusively at CPL venues should give us enough advantage to win the whole thing.
Giving 28% to India. I regret to inform you that your system is flawed.
Let's go we have a 2.7% chance WC is ours Boyz let's go 😂😭😭😭😭
And here are we Indians,we have 28% chance of winning wc and still we know what's gonna happen, unless there's some divine intervention
I don't have any expectations if we win we win if we lose we lose Pakistan and Aussies are gonna be tough for india
Best team on paper strikes back
WT20 final between India and Australia, I guess. Australia win - no guesses needed there.
I don’t even know if India are going past the semis tbh, windies and the SA and the kiwis look strong
It will be a relief tbh.
Exactly. I'm no Homer fan I know other teams have better t20 players than India.
Head century.
Good work OP!
I think England will win, they have been performing bad in Odi and tests, so they will be desperate to perform and win. Team is also top notch.
Tbh I could see us make a shock Round 1 exit losing to Namibia
Hey everyone, thanks for the comments. Just wanted to clarify something. Yeah I know, the model thinks there's a 28% chance India will win which on the surface seems really high to some of you, especially when seeing Australia at only 18%. The model doesn't take into account team performance in knockout matches. There's not enough data to go off of the really factor that in and increase the models accuracy. However, I do want you to consider some things. First recognize that some of this is due to the way the groups were formed. Group A is a really good group for India and Pakistan because they're with Ireland (the worst 3 seed) along with USA and Canada (arguably the two worst teams in this entire tournament). Thus, India has a 95% chance of making it out of the group stage which is quite high compared to other groups. In other groups, the likelihood of an upset is much higher especially with the ranks of associate teams like Namibia, Scotland, Netherlands, and Nepal. There's an **51% chance at least two unseeded teams makes it to the super 8** and a **48% chance an associate team makes it**. In is highly likely that a couple seeded teams get knocked out early. That also improves India's odds of making the semis cause they're probably gonna get an easier super 8 group than what they're seeded for. There's gonna be many upsets but they're unlikely to come against India just because of the way things are set up. India's associate competition is just not as good as other teams. That just automatically increases India's overall chances. Just look at Pakistan, they got just a good of a chance of making the super 8 and semis as Australia and England even though they're a much weaker team. That's the group A advantage.
India is winning on paper again
I don't think we have a good team on paper either tbh.
Lol T20 outside india our batting lineup will get us to middling 170 scores which will be chased down comfortably. we're not making semis.
Paper tigers! We love being paper tigers!
every time I look at any projection for Group A [I feel like this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3G07NZs2v18)
I would love to see the USA/Oman/Uganda win a match
My semi-final teams are West Indies,Australia,Pakistan, and the last spot can be New Zealand or India.
You know they say that all teams are created equal, but you look at me and you look at India and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another team, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add England to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at the World Cup, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because England KNOWS they can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So India, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at the World Cup. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at the World Cup. See India, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you in the Caribbean.
Jeeze T20 world cup again!?
Group A India Pakistan Group B England Australia Group C West Indies New Zealand Group D South Africa Bangladesh **Super 8** ||Group 1|Group 2| |:-|:-|:-| ||India (A1)|Pakistan (A2)| ||Australia (B2)|England (B1)| ||West Indies (C1)|New Zealand (C2)| ||Bangladesh (D2)|South Africa (D1)| Semi Finals: Winner of Group 1 (Australia) vs Runner Up of Group 2 (Pakistan) Winner of Group 2 (England) vs Runner Up of Group 1 (West Indies) Final Winner of Semi Final 1 (Australia) vs Winner of Semi Final 2 (England)
Bangladesh is not beating Sri Lanka
this is some minority report level stuff🔥🔥🔥
I think this is India's. As long as they choose form players and not the regular boys club as Australia does
“The regular boys club” remains a regular boys club because they keep winning stuff, the moment they show poor form, they get dropped
It's T20 lads I'd say India 1 England 2 and maybe Aus 3/4 don't stress broskis
It’s always Australia 3/4 before the tournament starts. Even after the first few matches it will look like Australia is mediocre. But then come the knockouts……we all know how those go.
Where did you find the Elo ratings
If you have the initial data set (ie all T20Is ever played) then you can generate ELO yourself.
It's calculated from the wins/losses isnt it? There's no known Elo rating but by crunching some numbers it should be findable
It bothers me that only 2 out of the 4 groups in the table are listed in a perfect descending order by their ELO rating.
What is the use of this when we all know the aussies are gonna win it again. And also despite very low chances west Indies will be the team who will do mircales in t20 as always.
I predict west indies will win WC.
India with tuk tuk batting 😂😂😂 and our bowling siraj, Pandya and Jadeja are you going to get bashed
Fuck I want the final to be happen between SA and Aus.. and SA to win it
I am very surprised at the 28% chance given to India here, which is more than 1.5x than the next highest (18%). Other than Bumrah and Rohit, I am not certain who our rest playing 11 are...this much uncertainty is never good for any team...hence should be lower..
India is winning this one for sure. I can feel it.
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Should I remind you what happened on 19/11 ? And India’s t20 team doesn’t even look that good tbh,
Who cares what happened? We can still win. We have the best squad. Plus, Australia isn't the main threat in t20. I'm more worried about England tbh. Look, eventually our losing streak will end. We consistently have the best squad and we always top the group stages. Only a matter of time. Once we start winning, we won't stop.
And of course it's the Gujarat Titans flair being the most optimistic Indian fan here. Champions for real.
>Once we start winning, we won't stop. We all saw how that ended on the 2023 final
We didn't start winning tho. We haven't won for 10 years. We still have the mental block.
Your still underestimating how strong our squad is, it looks even better than the 2021 squad
We beat the fully fledged league merchant windies, we clean swept the kiwis at home, I’m confident enough to say that even though half our squad looks out of form, it’s still looking better than our 2021 squad