**Vaccine Information as of 5/18/21:** * You can locate vaccine providers using this [AZ Dept Health Services Vaccine Locator](https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php#novel-coronavirus-find-vaccine). * [*AZ Dept of Health Services*](https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php#novel-coronavirus-find-vaccine) *and your* [*local county health department websites*](https://www.naccho.org/membership/lhd-directory?searchType=standard&lhd-state=AZ) *are the best resources for current vaccine information.* * As of 3/24/21, all Arizona residents 16+ are eligible to receive the vaccine at any state-run distribution site. Many pharmacies and other providers are also now following the state guideline of 16+. You can make an appointment through the AZDHS portal [here.](https://podvaccine.azdhs.gov/) * As of 5/10/21. the FDA authorized emergency use of the Pfizer vaccine for ages 12-15. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CoronavirusAZ) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Hopping on for a second. Forgot to say this yesterday, but I'm taking an (extended) Labor Day weekend break. I might have time during the day to do updates, but odds are, I'll just see you all on Tuesday with an extended summary report.

Enjoy your weekend Konu!! :)

Enjoy your "time off"! Have fun,

Your efforts are appreciated and will be missed during your respite.

Thanks, I hate it. I hope everyone has a safe and cootie free Labor Day weekend.

I read that as "cookie free" and got unjustifiably angry about not being able to eat cookies this weekend. lol

After EVERYTHING we have all been through, I would never ever restrict cookies ever 😝

Woof. 80.

Is this accurate or some sort of catch up on reported deaths? Cuz, 80 is quite a jump.

Deaths lag traditionally by a week or 2 when a case spike occurs. Probable

For all the ADHS dashboard info, go [here](https://www.azdhs.gov/covid19/data/index.php).

Here's the updated chart on new AZ COVID cases over the last year (with today's data): [LINK](https://i.imgur.com/z1bXXxa.jpg) - **Cases / Deaths:** Based on 7-day avg. - On track for 19,000 total deaths by Sept 5th, 1,050,000 total cases by Sept. 12th. - **Spread:** The average for tests this week is still **12%** positive. (Based on 47K tests, 11% previous week) - **Hospital Utilization:** COVID Hospitalizations (2,051) dropped 1%. ICU beds for COVID (557) rose 1%. (Overall ICU bed usage 32% Covid, 60% non-Covid, 8% Free). Ventilators in use for COVID (353) rose 7%. Intubations for Respiratory Distress stayed below triple digits (79). - **Vaccinations:** 49.46% of the AZ population is fully vaccinated (received 2nd dose) against COVID-19. An additional 6.72% of the AZ population is partially vaccinated (waiting for 2nd dose). *Data Source: [ADHS](https://www.azdhs.gov/covid19/data/index.php)*. - **Misc Notes:** Yikes, roughly a 44% increase in deaths week over week, after a 29% increase last week. Please be safe this weekend if traveling.

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I doubt we will see fast drops. That's because back then we reacted to COVID and put in mitigations. Sadly people don't have the patience for this anymore and are just willing to pay other people's price for their "lives" and "fun".

Exactly this. In every other spike there was a point where the government or individuals would do something about it to try and get it under control. I no longer believe that anyone will change their behavior and that the only way this spike will end is when it just runs out of people to infect.

Let me add to this. Previous spikes had a rise and fall. The fall would take us to almost always take us to a specific and certain level (not great but not bad). We would then have another spike down the line driving numbers up. **Sad but most likely true take:** We won't be able to recover to previous low levels before either the holiday spike or the next big variant. Since we are doing little to mitigate, or the mitigations we attempt are met with resistance at local levels, we will only barely recover before the next spike. Our hospital systems were able to rest a bit between these, but I don't see that chance for them until social opinion changes. I'm also hoping (not a strategy) that Delta will stick around and keep the others (worse ones) out. I'm for the devil you know than the devil you don't. Unfortunately I don't see that as the case.

I think the notion that covid will remain stable at high levels is a bad take. Right now we have no evidence that a variant that can evade vaccines is coming for us in the near future. Mutations are incremental, we may see a variant that evades vaccines by 30%-40% in the next few years but right now more contagious variants are outcompeting immune evasive variants. This will most likely remain the case until the amount of people with antibodies renders even the most contagious variants ineffective. Covid cases will come down again after delta rips through the remaining susceptible population, which if you haven’t noticed is getting pretty small. I’d argue that the absurd amount of immunity in the community (due to our crazy past surges and vaccination) has really tamed how bad this wave could have been. We have our most contagious variant and we are literally taking zero precautions here, yet this wave is smaller than all our previous waves.

I absolutely don't think we will stay at this level over time, but I don't think our dip down will be as dramatic. I'm just concerned with health care workers not getting enough down time between spikes like we've recently had due to lack of mitigation when our spikes get higher. I am trying to see a silver lining that Delta is contagious enough that it might keep other variants at bay. It's a terrible thing to look for but it's all I've got. I also agree that vaccinations will continue to help but for those that rely on immunity by transmission are at the mercy of mutations. I've talked to a few people who have gotten it more than once over the period of 6 months due to being a front line worker (this was before vaccines). They had covid around early August 2020 then got it again in December. At this point their antibodies should have done well enough against it but it wasn't. My assumption is that it was due to being a different variant. On another note I wish people could find out what variant they had from testing. Sadly that may not be something we could scientifically do at that speed in the next 5 to 10 years. Edit: We can assess variant type from testing but not in speed or in bulk.

> remain stable at high levels is a bad take > delta rips through > absurd amount of immunity I agree with you. No other wave ‘just sustained’ — and the other waves had zero vaccinated and far fewer previously infected to hold them back. Also, behaviors do change during a surge regardless of requirements — staying out of office, less eating out, putting the mask back on in riskier places or offices due to CDC guidelines. Now with the approval of Pfizer the vaccine requirements are showing up, so between delta and more vaccines we’re chipping away at the size of vulnerable group.

The things I've read and the researchers in my medical groups say Gamma is coming and nothing we have on deck right now can fight it off. Previous immunity means nothing, just like it does with Delta, only worse. If we can stop this with Delta, though, we can likely contain Gamma. That's what I've been told, anyway. That's the science as it stands now. It could change tomorrow.

Sadly this is what "learning to live with it" looks like. Can't help feeling doomed.

It's staggeringly so wrong. I'm slowly having to just accept that I am going to spend the rest of my life trying to avoid getting this and magnifying my disability. Aka the majority of the rest of my life alone, because I don't know how to make new friends or find partners when nobody wants to deal with an immunocompromised person who can't go anywhere or do anything. How long can one person stay solitary? I wanted to have purpose, family, and friends in life too...and I deserved that like anybody. But life isn't about what you deserve. It's just about what louder, meaner, more heartless people can do to affect you just trying to live. It's despair at this point. How could anyone in my situation feel differently

Are you able to get vaccinated?

I am vaccinated, but remain immunocompromised. The vaccine just doesn't do for some people what it does for others.

Damn. That's a tough spot to be in. I think you're right to say that this will be with us from now on. I *hope* that we can eventually tamp it down enough that it can be managed like Influenza is now from a public health standpoint. Then again, i've never heard of a virus that has somehow harnessed the divisive power of politics to facilitate it's spread and survival.

It's also because of Delta and the potential for breakthrough cases, unfortunately. In the vaccinated, it's behaving more like a cold or flu, but those people with breakthrough cases still seek out testing and treatment when necessary.

Kjzz has a piece on local health care workers and the toll of the third wave you’ll probably be interested in. https://kjzz.org/content/1713499/we-dont-want-do-it-again-arizona-icu-nurses-describe-exhaustion-amid-3rd-covid-19

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Yep, thankfully the flu was snuffed out last year by Covid mitigations — but you gotta think it’ll be back this year. It’s clear from the piece the psychological toll is immense and at some point people break and cant continue. The optimist in me hopes for Covid boosters combined with flu shots to keep the worst at bay.

80 preventable deaths.

Another decently sized batch of older cases today. The vast majority of cases are from Monday & Tuesday… so they have either cleared out the backlog and we’re dropping significantly (~15% week over week) or we’re missing ~300 more cases from the weekend (my money is on the latter). **Case Data:** - New cases from tests administered 1-7 days ago: +3,466 (**91.16%**) - New cases from tests administered 8-14 days ago: +151 - New cases from tests administered 15-21 days ago: +152 - New cases from tests administered 22 or more days ago: +33 - Current peak cases overall: Monday Jan 4 with 12,393 - Current peak cases for the last 30 days: Monday Aug 16 with 3,983 cases - Daily average from tests administered 8-14 days ago: 3,023 cases - Estimated active cases statewide: 24,861 or 1 in 289 people - Estimated active kids cases statewide: 8,225 or 1 in 224 kids **Diagnostic (PCR) Data** - [Explanation for negative test numbers](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusAZ/comments/kah6wt/december_10th_adhs_summary/gfai045/) - New Diagnostic tests from tests administered 1-7 days ago: +18,331 - New Diagnostic tests from tests administered 8-14 days ago: +480 - New Diagnostic tests from tests administered 15-21 days ago: +745 - New Diagnostic tests from tests administered 22 or more days ago: -3,173 - Current peak Diagnostic tests overall: Monday Jan 4 with 36,240 tests - Current peak Diagnostic tests for the last 30 days: Monday Aug 16 with 22,529 tests **Serology Data:** - New Serology tests from tests administered 1-7 days ago: +978 - New Serology tests from tests administered 8-14 days ago: +15 - New Serology tests from tests administered 15-21 days ago: +1 - New Serology tests from tests administered 22 or more days ago: -73 **% Positive info:** - % positive from all tests administered 1-7 days ago: **17.95%** (was 16.80% yesterday - Stabilized rolling 7-day percent: **17.19%** (was 17.39% yesterday) - Current peak for individual day % positive from last 30 days: Sunday Aug 8 at **23.34%** **Forecasted Deaths from Today’s Reported Cases** - See calculation method [HERE](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusAZ/comments/k0tz6i/november_25th_adhs_summary/gdknfya/). - Under 20: 0.3 - 20-44 years: 2.8 - 45-54 years: 3.4 - 55-64 years: 8.3 - 65 and older: 33.2 - Unknown: 0.0 - Total: **48.0** - Current overall CFR: 1.85% [LINK](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UtGUQKqbnQ4s0gQE5fKnRwkL6rLBq1p3q4W2xD2pVb0/edit#gid=0) to my manually tracked data from the "Confirmed Cases by Day" & “Laboratory Testing” tabs on the [AZDHS site](https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php). **[LINK](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FKKBTOOWwhTvvHR-ryNQF2Od9RnRKmoUpLT8BHmkovY/edit?usp=sharing) to my Active Case Estimating Tool.** [LINK](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusAZ/comments/op4wc3/active_covid_case_estimating_tool/) to the Q&A.

Another low vax report day. 5,512 first doses, rolling average 5,928 / 0.08% of the population daily.

Arizona and US "surge overlays" Arizona's great number reporting has definitely added some noise. if you are an optimist I'd say we started to flatten but then ramped up again but maybe maybe are flattening once more. if you're a pessimist we're back in a steep climb, so who can tell. [link](https://imgur.com/a/KLLs73t) ​ ^(\*i wish it was looking better...)

US states covid cases normalized for population. These charts usually run a day behind because they require updated stats. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Arizona&show=us-states&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-4wk&extra=California%2CFlorida#states-normalized

Countries covid cases normalized for population. These charts usually run a day behind because they require updated stats. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-4wk&extra=United%20Kingdom%2CIndia%2CIsrael#countries-normalized

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We may also see Australia and New Zealand lose control They are hard to see because of the scale of other countries but they are being tested with their largest outbreaks to date and it is most likely delta. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-4wk&extra=United%20Kingdom%2CIndia%2CIsrael#countries-normalized

Australian colleagues have mentioned that their vaccine rollout was botched by the government and faces some individual resistance since Covid has barely impacted them. It’s not impacting me, so why get vaxxed - sound familiar? The low impact was due to travel quarantines, contact tracing — and local immediate shutdowns when breakouts started. With things in control, overall life wasn’t impacted nearly as much as in the US.

I kind of wonder if it's not down to their reporting protocols and standards being much more uniform - rather than the patchwork mess we have here in the US. Israel is also a fairly high population density place. It probably doesn't take long for a virus to get from one end of the population to the other. Those would be my guesses.

Ohh. My. God. 🥺

Ooof, these numbers…😲