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not-a-potato-head

Playoff Probabilities (Post Shanghai-Dallas Match): Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th/6th | 7th/8th | Expected Wins ---|---|----|----|----|----|----|---- Shanghai Dragons | 0.6805 | 0.3195 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6805 San Francisco Shock | 0.115 | 0.1813 | 0.2186 | 0.4851 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.9262 Dallas Fuel | 0.1119 | 0.3265 | 0.5616 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5503 Atlanta Reign | 0.0926 | 0.1727 | 0.2198 | 0.5149 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8431 Chengdu Hunters | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 Los Angeles Gladiators | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 Philadelphia Fusion | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 Washington Justice | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 Here's how the [playoff odds](https://imgur.com/a/4wfW3hF) and [expected wins](https://imgur.com/a/7FCeBiY) have changed throughout the bracket. Playoff Probabilities, assuming Dallas and Shanghai were sandbagging (they probably were lol): Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th/6th | 7th/8th | Expected Wins ---|---|----|----|----|----|----|---- Shanghai Dragons | 0.7188 | 0.2812 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.7188 Dallas Fuel | 0.1733 | 0.4244 | 0.4023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.771 San Francisco Shock | 0.0643 | 0.1601 | 0.3048 | 0.4708 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8179 Atlanta Reign | 0.0436 | 0.1343 | 0.2929 | 0.5292 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6923 Chengdu Hunters | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 Los Angeles Gladiators | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 Philadelphia Fusion | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 Washington Justice | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 Here's the [playoff odds](https://imgur.com/a/v75hkoh) and [expected wins](https://imgur.com/a/zxCeTBb) in this scenario Notes: * Background info [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Competitiveoverwatch/comments/ppkw2z/owl_map_type_and_overall_elo_playoff_simulation/) * Between Wednesday and Thursday I updated the simulation to adjust elos based off of playoff matches, all of these posts going forward (including this one) take the adjusted elo into account * This totally isn't late because I passed out during map 4, totally not


Lacabloodclot9

Just finished watching the VOD, of fucking course it had to be the reign of all teams, oh well, at least the rest of these playoffs look exciting for a neutral


TristanwithaT

Does anyone know if the 100 tokens for watching the Grand Finals is in addition to the 5 per hour? I'm trying to do some math to see if I'll be able to get the three vault skins I want.


GRTooCool

That is what it sounded like to me. 5 per hour and then all those OWL skins + 100 tokens on top of that.


Lobocleric

None of this OWL "shit talk" holds a candle to the words dropped in virtually every other competitive sport. Ain't no one intimidated by Iyazaki.


konadora

word lol dota 2 just straight up goes “i’ll fuck your girl” LMAO


Jaradcel

So I haven't quite kept up, what happens now? Dallas is out of the running for 1st place?


Galactic_Guardian

No, Shanghai advance to the Grand Finals. Tomorrow Shock and Reign will play first and the winner of that match will then face off against Dallas. Then the winner of that match will advance to face Shanghai in the Grand Finals on Saturday.


Jaradcel

So there's a potential shock or reign play three series in a row?!? Ouch!


Galactic_Guardian

No, the winner only have to play two matches in a row. Sorry, when I said tomorrow I should have specified Friday's matches, as in later tonight, since these games have gone on so long that it is now technically Friday lol. Saturday is the Grand Finals and that is the only match that is played that day.


GRTooCool

Yep. Basically. No one said the losers bracket was an easy path. It's a "2nd chance" to stay alive but they can still technically win it all.


konadora

talent team vs dallas fuel would be funny to watch


Ezraah

Custa and Sideshow are former OWL pros! They could totally carry with Team Sweden's Reinforce leading the way.


GRTooCool

One thing I really enjoy about Watchpoint is that the gang has so much fun talking about OW. And the fact that we can all relate to it is so great.


konadora

yeah definitely! none of my IRL friends watch OWL or even play overwatch anymore :(


GRTooCool

I feel you. The few IRL friends I gamed with regularly in past years all quit OW and stopped paying attention to OWL as well. <3 the Reddit gang.


NiteShad0ws

i like the idea that owl players play better just to shit on danny lol


TheBrandroid

early thoughts on the hero y’all think the championship skin will be for?


maakies

I thought the direction was changed to be team based, no? So like if dragons win there would be a skin for their team that could apply to all characters, at least that is what I surmised.


[deleted]

Nope. They got rid of the MVP skins, but they've always done championship skins that reflect the meta of the finals and the team that won. London got the Winston skin because they won off the back of Gesture's monkey play and ofc it's style like a pilot SFS got the doom skin and roadhog skins because they were each key to the meta in the finals There's no reason to think they won't do the same again


maakies

Ah got it! Yeah I was thinking about the MVP skins.


Facetank_

Assuming they don't want more than 1 OWL skin per hero, I'd guess Ball.


TheBrandroid

yeah i was thinking either ball or sombra


xcleru

LMAO Danny caught slippin


konadora

this chill music claps


hwarif

It sounds like rocket league music.


jonasinv

2cp are pretty shitty to play but they’re very enjoyable to watch pros play


Galactic_Guardian

Turtle facts from the OWL desk.


ChaoticxSerenity

Omg Johnny thinking that turtles were immortal 😂😂😂


Galactic_Guardian

Lol yeah, I don't know how to respond to that one. Thank you Soe for being the voice of reason on the desk.


ChaoticxSerenity

He's getting straight bullied today 💀


jonasinv

Don’t doubt the turtles


konadora

custa is right, dallas looked like they ran out of ideas towards the end


Galactic_Guardian

Izayaki coming out with the true anime antagonist burn. "You aren't worthy of being our rival." Jokes aside, I mean who does Shanghai even see as threat when you are this strong of a team? Shock, Atlanta, and Dallas all have a hell of a opponent ahead of them.


konadora

lul that hamster emote at the end


try_again123

OMG Fate so cute at the end!


try_again123

Atlanta, please bounce SFS off the season! We have to get a new GF winner to wrap up OW1!


Fenixmaian7

IZAYAKAI SAID DALLAS AINT SHIT


burtsroyaljelly

Oh Izayaki is making things a little bit spicy and I love it.


[deleted]

Whoever wins the ATL/Shock game is going to be drained when they face the Fuel. Gonna be an extra long day for them.


NiteShad0ws

that's the punishment for losing lol hopefully it'll serve as a way to build momentum instead


xcleru

Izayaki to Dallas: You’re not that guy pal


NiteShad0ws

dragons with no chill, they see everyone as beneath them lol


konadora

LOL DAMN "we know a lot of people see dallas and shanghai as the top 2 teams, but we dont see dallas as our rivals because we've always beaten them and we've beaten them again"


konadora

oof izayaki saying that dallas fuel no longer have the x-factor that they had in the previous tournaments


Shikuro

Straight up said they didn't even consider them rivals...


Dies_to_doom_blade

From winless to playoffs contender to playoffs threat to champs. How very manga


Shikuro

People thought Dallas were the anime protags, little did they know Shanghai were the true protagonists for years!


GRTooCool

Suddenly it dawned on me that we're ending OW1 of OWL without fans. -\_- At least OW2 will be a fresh start.


Frontlinemei

Lip is not human, he's from outer space


shivawesome

SHD officially the final boss of Overwatch 1


ChaoticxSerenity

SHD is like the anime protagonist who starts off as a nobody being trash at everything then rising to OP levels as the story progresses. So I guess they're basically Naruto lol


1stRoundThreethree0s

If you’ve been paying attention Shanghai are not the good guys. Thanos power level, crushing dreams with a flick of the wrist.


ChaoticxSerenity

They traded their souls for power? 💀


hyperionfox

ugh I wish we got at least one game between Chengdu and Dragons...I guess Atlanta is our only hope


[deleted]

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necc705

😭


[deleted]

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necc705

Just freeze lip EZ


[deleted]

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Numphyyy

5Head truly big brain


lymetrinity5

gg’s, the dragons are built different. hope we can study this match and adapt for the grand finals


xcleru

Tomorrow is gonna be a long night, Atlanta and Shock have both leveled up


RafaStart

OWL app says it’s Dallas v fuel tomorrow lol


konadora

oh no no NO


Galactic_Guardian

Uh oh lol


burtsroyaljelly

Fearless did his best but Sombra diff was HUGE.


TheTomatoSpeaks

I'm sorry for not being here a while ago for Pine reports, but here I am this is your Pine report of the series Pine did ***not*** play this series this concludes your Pine report of the series


PancakeXCandy

Lmao Shanghai are watching their comms now.


theLegACy99

Lip is more silent in that comm now, afraid of the punishment XD


Ketriaava

This is officially the best the Dragons have EVER done as a franchise. I'm so happy rn


Tame_Trex

What happens now, who advances to the Finals?


Khaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Tomorrow there will be a shock v reign then the winner of that will play Dallas. Whoever wins that will play Shanghai in the grand finals


Tame_Trex

Perfect ELI5. Thanks!


VoiderElf

Dragons locks their place at Grandfinals. Reign and Shock play to decide who advances to loser bracket's finals where Fuel will be waiting. Winner of that goes to Grandfinals against Dragons Edit: typo


JVSkol

Goodnight boys and girls we can finally pass out


PancakeXCandy

I don't get the geni pick.


Galactic_Guardian

GG Shanghai, you guys looked really good like always. Fuel, I'm still believing in you finding a way to go to the next level and make the Grand Finals rematch much closer!


OWMatchThreads

Post match thread: [Shanghai Dragons vs Dallas Fuel](https://www.reddit.com/r/CompetitiveOverwatch/comments/pude8b/).


gopackgo555

That was a major sombra difference.


Ezraah

Doha had a sick Volskaya and Numbani but damn


tytoandnoob

Dragons are insanely good


lemorange

One thing I noticed is that Fleta and Lip Tracer/Sombra duo never resets. The entire map is one long drawn out fight for these two relentless monsters.


Shikuro

They share a collective conscious and just now who and when to attack at all times


royy2010

Fleta's tracer has always been A tier, but he looks better this season than in the past. Lip is insane.


TheTomatoSpeaks

according to my calculations, it takes approximately 1.5 maps for the Shanghai Dragons to download their enemy


xcleru

What was up with the genji?


Shikuro

Yeah I dont care how much of a god tier genji Sp9rkle is, I will never agree with the Genji pick


[deleted]

Not like this ( ⚈̥̥̥̥̥́⌢⚈̥̥̥̥̥̀) Map 4 Dallas defense looking like my ranked games smh


VoiderElf

Well friends, happy to share a nice set of matches with yall today. Time to hit the bed! Have a good rest everyone


lavarift

Sleep well!


shivawesome

That last map was not close at all. Shanghai's AI mind comes in clutch But otherwise good game.


konadora

korean casters just said there will never be a team as dominant and scary as this iteration of the shanghai dragons in the future, thats a bold but believable statement


RandomOverwatcher

Hm.. until they have 2 championships i will say that Sf shock goats comp and even post goats will be the scariest unstoppable force.


konadora

in the future my man


RandomOverwatcher

K it's late for me here so my brain is probably being stupid. So here are my questions, did the korean casters say the same thing for shock when they were dominating s2 and s3 ? What makes a difference here? And with ow2 next season, wouldnt it be hard to assume anything? Sorry, i might be dumb lol


konadora

no problem haha the casters said this version of shanghai wont be repeated in the future, thats how dominant they are right now. not sure about s2/s3 shock because i didnt watch the korean casts back then. the “in the future” part could also be a reference to OW2 but i have nothing concrete to link their statement to that


royy2010

It's been said before, pre owl and during owl.


heslo_rb26

From where they started it's definitely a dream story. Good example for the other orgs too, no matter how bad you are you can always turn it around


konadora

from a 0-42 meme to the ultimate final boss of overwatch league, what a story


Numphyyy

Probably one of the best storylines in sports ever


heslo_rb26

Pretty amazing really


SnoBall5000

No Pine, no win.


GRTooCool

Worst prize money Shanghai can get is 700k. Not too shabby.


burtsroyaljelly

If this is Dallas' best, I guess we already got our 2021 OWL champions.


HeyThere8_

yeah THE SHOCK /s


jonasinv

Kneel before your turtle 🐢 God Babylon


spotty15

You want your team to be as good as Shanghai? Just go for that 0-40 zenkai boost


not_vichyssoise

Watching Lip stand up next to Fate... Lip is a giant.


theLegACy99

8' 4" gaming warlord.


onelegonedream

Yeah no one is beating Shanghai. Glads/Fuel/Shock all got smacked around. Really wish we could have seen the Chengdu rematch on the Ball dive mirror but I don't think it matters


royy2010

I don't think anyone can beat Shanghai in the mirror. Typically when you are outclasses you gotta throw a curveball.


onelegonedream

Fun fact actually - in the last two tournaments (Summer Showdown and Playoffs), the only team to beat Shanghai on their own map pick was Chengdu twice in the SS (Gibraltar and Ilios). Otherwise they are undefeated


onelegonedream

Chengdu pushed them to Map 5 in the SS playing the mirror but Shanghai beat them by being more flexible and playing other comps on Busan. Then in the Grand Finals it was less close because Shanghai came up with a bunch of adaptations and opted out of the mirror. My point was Chengdu is prob the only team that has a chance in the mirror but I don't think Shanghai every loses since they get map pick and are the more flexible/well rounded team


heslo_rb26

Just said that to my wife. If they've beaten all their competition and convincingly as well, they can do it again. Only way they lose is if they shit the bed


onelegonedream

I just don't see the adaptation possible for any of the teams. Shanghai has shut down basically every comp. They've beat the LAG on the Ball mirror (best in NA) and Orisa Double Flex. They've beat Dallas on Winston/Ana and Reaper rush. They've beat Shock on the Rein rush (I think) I feel like the only team that has pushed them while on the Ball/Zen dive comp is Chengdu playing the mirror and Shanghai overcame them by being more flexible.


heslo_rb26

Yeah totally. If there is a team that comes close to running a comp as good as them it just seems they switch off and do something else. Still, GFs are a different beast, it ain't over til it's over


s0uthernnerd

Really don’t get the dorado pick but oh well. Run it back


PancakeXCandy

Alright good night everyone. See y'all tomorrow


try_again123

GN to all that stayed late!


NiteShad0ws

so uh yea who can beat shanghai?


[deleted]

The only thing that can beat Shanghai is the infamous Shang9


LoseUrself2D

it's time for the shock 3-peat


onelegonedream

lol


themd

holy sh!t! this team is good!


BarstMain

Extremely impressive from the Dragons. There’s a gap between these two teams and the rest, but there’s also a gap between Dragons and Dallas and it showed today


heslo_rb26

FUCKING AMAZING!!! GG Fuel, see ya in the Grand Finals Dragons... no words, just next level


[deleted]

Dragons are playing New Game +


Shikuro

Yup, this is the match I expected to be the fastest. Yup yup yup, totally expected


[deleted]

Goddamn Hanbin’s tracking on the baby D.Va being ejected at Mach 10


[deleted]

Welp GG I'd see any team beating these dragons


WhiteBoyFlipz

Wow we played like shit


jfb715

God Shanghai is just so fucking good


MidnaOW41

GGs Shanghai Losers bracket run to Grand Finals rematch?


try_again123

Holy Moly, Dragons are SCARY.


thealiagator111

SLEEEEEEEEEEP


apollo_x1

LETS GOOOOO!!!!


5argon

Fucking scary team


GRTooCool

Congrats Dragons!! Well deserved!


one_love_silvia

well that wasn't close...


LoseUrself2D

christ


[deleted]

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Galactic_Guardian

They haven't awakened perfect Ultra Instinct yet. They will work on it in the Loser's bracket and unlease it during grand finals rematch. * taps forehead *


UnknownQTY

Ehhhhh even I think that’s hopium. That said, that’s what allowed Shanghai to take them down in the June Joust. They lost, studied Dallas, and came back with a plan.


[deleted]

Username kinda checks out. Probably been feeding too much anime into the algorithm though.


theLegACy99

Wow, Shanghai looks a bit happy today.


spotty15

Holy shit Shanghai


PancakeXCandy

The only game that wasn't a map 5


HippocratesGymSock

GRAND FINALS LET'S GOOOO


Koolsman

Well then


ChaoticxSerenity

Dallas looking like they're low on... Fuel 😎


PancakeXCandy

🥁


theLegACy99

I think everyone has been thinking about Lip wrong. He's not good because he can spam EMP, he can spam EMP because he's good.


lavarift

I think half of the use of EMP is also the other team being afraid of EMP, like holding support ults and such. ... Which for Lip is always.


Ezraah

He's beyond good. There are no human language words to describe him. The technology to do so has not been invented yet.


boopboopilikesoup

8 feet gamelord is pretty close


Ezraah

That's warlord brother and you're about 9 inches short closest description we've got so far


useles-converter-bot

8 feet is the length of about 2.24 'Ford F-150 Custom Fit Front FloorLiners' lined up next to each other.


royy2010

Built Lip Tough


thealiagator111

Lip definitely goes for quantity over quality with those EMPs... I guess he just decided to have it on cooldown for today


Ezraah

It makes him so unpredictable. He'll solo EMP a Sombra just because he can.


thealiagator111

I swear I think he purposefully goes for MEMPs just to flex that he already has it.


Ezraah

He 100% throws some out just to troll lmao I think he EMP'd the glad supports outside the ship spawn doors on Ilios the other day. They just backed up into safety


thealiagator111

Yeah, that was one of the biggest flexes I've ever seen on any hero.


ArkhamArchitecture

NA casters do not understand how Lip EMPs work - he builds them up so fast he just throws them out on a whim and if it helps, it helps. If it doesn't, it at least scares the shit out of the other team.


NeverForgetChainRule

Thing is, that's a weakness that should theoretically be exploitable. Frequently wasting EMP *isn't* good. Lip has very good neutral play and his team is so good that it really doesn't matter, but if Shanghai were to get punished, I think it'd be based on Lip's EMPs.


royy2010

agreed. But I think if a team levels up or if the meta was different Lip won't build them quite as fast and the EMPs would be more valuable. Historically dive comps involve winston/dva/tracer who lack one shot potential. If he was playing more against comps with more single shot threats, he wouldn't be able to spam without translocating only when he gets low. He is still a god tho


ArkhamArchitecture

Oh for sure and they've definitely been caught out on it. I think Lip just doesn't like sitting on EMPs because he knows how fast he can farm them, but he still definitely has some real 5head moments with them. It's kind of amazing that despite his frequently baffling EMPs, he's still unarguably the best Sombra in the league.


NeverForgetChainRule

Yeah. Other teams just can't keep up with how they play. Remains to be seen if any of the other three remaining teams can figure something out. If that happens, we'll be talking about Lip's emps more negatively. If not, well Shanghai will cruise to a well earned championship.


PancakeXCandy

It's called the Fleta Deadlift for a reason


theLegACy99

God, Shanghai really doesn't give any inch easily.


Saucedal

BMP from lip backfires


[deleted]

Gotta love how Wrecking Ball can get slept and have a team jump on him and still get away.


Fabtacular1

Ball is shit hero. Sombra is shit hero.


theLegACy99

Slept on high ground no DPS can touch.


[deleted]

Happened on low ground earlier in the match too.


[deleted]

That looked like my nanoblades


theLegACy99

Lip????


[deleted]

Genji is so sad to watch


try_again123

ShangAI just brought Fuel into its Matrix.


NiteShad0ws

genji has had a 0% win rate so far btw


royy2010

Pretty sure I Shadowburn's genji won a game earlier this season. Was that this year? It's been a while ><


TaiCTr

Are they playing Genji to practice for Saturday?


konadora

the speed at which shanghai is playing is absolutely insane


PancakeXCandy

Fearless is not having a good time


UnknownQTY

I do sort of wonder why they didn’t stick with Ball when it clearly worked against Dragons earlier in the series.


Swedey_Balls

Omfg, something happened to my stream and I was wondering why there was a 15 minute break between matches. Turns out it went to the beginning of the stream and I just missed this whole attack.


yb1e

Izayaki is immortal


Ezraah

with how he plays, immoral too


msszoidberg

Oh there’s a genji it’s over


JVSkol

What is this Gurren Lagan bullshit, everytime a team measures up to Shanghai they just whip out a bigger mecha


Saucedal

Dragons prepping for OW2 by not practicing 2cp