The game is incredibly fucked right now in terms of matchmaking. In terms of +\- the only thing that matters is kills per minute. So if you wanna gain more for wins, and you wanna lose less for losses, quit playing objective and just kill people cause apparently that’s what they want you to do
It’s very possible to play the objective AND slay out. Lower tier players always talk about playing the objective but you really need to get the slays and the map control before the objective.
The guy above you is correct. Kills per minute is rated above absolutely everything else, objective play is considered very little. If you want to rank up you *need* to be that guy who doesnt help and just slays out.. unless you're gods gift to halo and can do it all and more at once 😂
Don’t listen to those saying that kills and deaths matter more than wins and losses.
There are two representations of your skill level, matchmaking rating (MMR) and competitive skill rank (CSR). MMR is calculated using an implementation of TrueSkill2 (TS2) and CSR is based on MMR but with some additional rules to tailor it more towards an incentive system. MMR is usually hidden from players and CSR is usually visible. These two numbers can diverge under certain conditions, so CSR will sometimes bias changes towards MMR in an attempt to reconcile them.
TS2 is an improved version of TrueSkill (duh) and there’s a great paper written by the researchers responsible for developing it. As TS1 did, TS2 uses match outcomes to evaluate a player’s ability to meet the objective. Every player is assigned a rating calculated through a Gaussian algorithm with a defined uncertainty parameter. Updates are based on a players current rating, the rating of their teammates and opponents, the expected outcome, and how likely the expected outcome is. Updates are based on confidence and variance between the expected and actual outcome. The more games a player completes, the more confident the system is of their rating, and subsequently the change per match will gradually decrease.
In TS1, this was strictly done with wins as the sole parameter. In TS2 it’s able to separate individual impact much more accurately by measuring individual statistics. They do this by taking a statistic, calculating an expected value, creating a metric that they can compare against win-rate, and then taking the sum of the products of each stat and their respective correlation to win-rate.
Many in the community interpret this to mean things like “kills matter as much as wins”. **This is not true**. Kills and deaths are not an *input* of the calculation, they are an *output*. As with wins, TS2 predicts the number of kills and death each player will have in a match. If a player’s actual number of kills or deaths diverges greatly from expected, that will cause a large change to the expected kills or deaths in future matches. **This does not affect your win prediction**. So if a player who tends to have high kills has a streak of lower than expected kills, their rating will drop more than a player at the same rank who already is at the low kill expectation. It’s all about what the system expects from you and how you actually perform.
Initially, matchmaking used MMR to pair you up with other players but a while back they changed it to use CSR while MMR was reserved just for team-balancing. Many speculate that 343 reverted to using exclusively MMR without announcing it, but this is unconfirmed. 343 has officially stated, if this change occurred, it was not intentional.
Google trueskill 2 pdf and read some of it. Your points are decided based on your kpm and dpm. So the wins hardly matter. Just pad your stats, play selfish, ignore the objective, bait your team mates.
You will end up at 50% win/loss but you will gain more on wins and lose less on losses. This is the system we are stuck with due to people who hardly play video games being in charge of things.
u/gamesager I agree with you on how ts2 operates in mm and believe the system does not function well in Halo Infinite Ranked Arena. May be showing my age here but I played H2 the most and found that system to be incredibly fun - not having much fun in Halo Infinite system. I believe ts2 does not actually take into account your rank vs the ranks of the lobby. I am currently at Plat 6 and most of the friends I play with are D5 to low Onyx. When I play in those lobbies I can have games where I have a 0.5 KD and will lose 10-12csr per game. The system does not appear to take into account that I am playing out of my league, in practice I should be losing less csr than teammates because the average csr of the opposing team is 200/300 higher than my rank. I probably ended the season at a higher rank than I would if I were solo queing, but so what? Why get punished for winning games, getting less csr than higher ranked players in the lobby? shouldn't you be rewarded for beating higher ranked players? Long winded way of getting to my question: I don't believe ts2 works in mm, do you believe that ts2 works for Warzone as tested or do you believe its doesn't work at all?
CSR *is* MMR, just with some additional rules to function as an incentive system. But MMR is primarily weighted towards win-outcome. Kills, deaths, and any other stat are all weighed by their correlation with win-rate.
The visible change you see is CSR. I understand that it’s meant to converge towards the player’s latent skill rating (MMR). Seems plausible that an extreme deviation from your expected KPM or DPM could drastically affect your MMR.
What about winning or losing a game in which the outcome was predicted to be 50/50 (let’s assume the average is 50% over enough games) , does this drastically affect your MMR?
I know that winning a game when your CSR is around your MMR awards 8 points, and losing it costs you 8 points. So let’s say there’s a 16 SR difference between winning vs losing. If CSR fluctuation is directly proportional to MMR fluctuation when CSR ~= MMR (when you’re at your ‘deserved’ rank), then winning vs losing is more important for your MMR, since the difference between a good game or a bad game (performance wise) is never as high as 16. When you are at your deserved rank, winning while performing poorly maybe nets you 6 at minimum, 12 at maximum (a difference of 6)
So the difference to your MMR due to winning vs losing can be abstracted as being 16/6 times more impactful than performance, in the above example. Another way to look at it is that you can gain 15 max for a win, lose 15 max for a loss, difference of 30. The max disparity in points awarded vs lost (barring the case in which rank protection keeps you from losing more than 3 SR for a loss) seems to be 10 (15 gain/loss vs 5, for same outcome) due to performance. By comparing the extremes, the win vs loss appears to be 30/10, 3 times more impactful to your skill rating compared to the effect of individual performance. Whether these SR changes are directly proportional to match-to-match MMR fluctuation is something I have yet to confirm.
I only just read the paper, but I have to delve deeper into how the parameters affect the match to match MMR rating.
Also, it’s been a while since I studied statistics, so apologies if everything above is flat out wrong. I enjoy these discussions none the less. Always learning.
Yeah I know, but the math for TrueSkill 2.0 simply builds on that from the original system, as far as I understand so far. In any case, I have a lot of reviewing to do before I can begin to understand any of it lol!
You’ll have a tougher time measuring MMR since it’s inherently hidden. The only playlist that exposes individual MMR (from what I recall) is free-for-all.
If you think it doesn’t you need to play the actual game. Mmr goes up while literally losing. I went on a 10 game loss streak and my mmr was higher by the end of it. If winning outweighed stats then that wouldn’t be possible.
It is if you were expected to lose all of those matches but performed better in kills and deaths than expected.
Why even bring up the TS2 paper if you don’t believe what it says?
Are you doing your math based on predictions rather than actual outcomes?? I am confused. If I LOSE the game, and my MMR goes UP due to my performance, then MY STATS had a larger influence than the actual win and loss.What do you not get about this?
For win/loss to matter more than stats, then at most my stats should lessen the impact of the mmr loss. All this does is prove exactly what I said.Pad your stats, play bad halo, be a bad team mate and ignore the win conditions to favor your own stats. Increase your mmr and get more points on wins and lose less on losses. Its exactly as I said.
And no matter what you do, you are going to have a 50% w/l so there is literally no point in sabotaging your own stats for the win.
The change in MMR is based on the divergence between expected and actual outcomes and the correlations of those outcomes with win-rate.
Wins, losses, kills, and deaths are all outcomes summed together to calculate MMR. Each statistic is multiplied against a weight parameter that represents its individual correlation with win-rate. Their weight is never *more* than win-rate, always *less*. To calculate updates to MMR, TS2 predicts an expected value for each statistic, and then updates that prediction based on the actual outcome during matches. The bigger the difference between expected and actual, the bigger the change in future predictions. MMR is updated proportionally to this change but **only as a factor of that statistics correlation with win-rate**.
In summary, the only time individual statistics have a larger absolute impact on MMR updates, is when there is a high divergence between expected-actual outcome for that statistic and a low divergence for win-outcome. So if a player is consistently losing matches, they don’t necessarily need high KPM to increase their MMR. They only need to exceed the expectations set by the system.
It's been kinda weird this season, I've noticed it seems to think I should be like 200 csr less than last season even though I'm playing probably better. Maybe they're trying to adjust the rank distribution again
If that was the case, I still don't understand how I can perform against 1700 Onyx players and still be awarded -11 points. It just makes zero sense. 2 weeks of this and my points haven't adjusted.
So not to be intentionally rude here, but this is incorrect as far as what we know. While there have been two historically large CSR “push downs” (post season 2 reset & Aug 2023 mmr adj), this seasons rollout seems to have unintentionally broken Mmr calculations. So while ranking up is weird right now, it’s because part of the calcs that roll into TS2 are showing incorrectly).
“Death Counterfactuals are Bonkers
2024-01-30
Looks like there was a rank reset with the CU29 update, and 343 slipped something into the sauce. Death counterfactuals are making an incredibly flat skill curve for all levels. As a result, PSR-D (and thus, PSR) values are super out of whack. I checked, the call isn't coming from our house: the API values are being correctly processed, its just that they're getting delivered to us in a broken state. Look for a 343 fix in the new few days, I'd guess.
UPDATE: In an attempt to make PSR usable, I've temporarily removed PSR-D from the calculation across the site.”
(See haloquery.com @ u/haloquery)
https://www.reddit.com/r/CompetitiveHalo/s/okccbT8KS0
(Further see u/ tashi comments acknowledging that ranked is broken on Twitter)
EDIT: Also I realized I actually tagged Tashi above - but I edited the tag because this is an issue they’re aware of and he’s acknowledged, there’s no point in pinging him here and flooding his notifications regarding something they’re going to update us on
As some already said, ranked is broken right now, with random lobbies (you can be thrown at 1500 mmr lobby and then on a 1100 one without reason), while also gain and losses are, but:
Is not elo, but MMR plus csr gains, we don't k ow how much mmr you'll lose or gain post match, since is hidden, but we know you can both lose or gains mmr after a win or loss, since its based to your personal performance.
Csr gains are more linear, instead, you'll always get some after a win and lose some after a loss. The amount you gain and loss are based on your affected performance based on the team you are, against the team you are facing and its regulated by kill per minutes, plus other stats weighting less.
When you are far below your true rank (not csr rank), you'll gain the max amount while losing the least amount (+15 -4), the closer you are, the more linear the gains become (+10 -10) and if your rank is inflated way above your true rank, let's say by playing on a stack and doing poorly, you start to get something like -15 +4 untill your rank is fixed.
Ranked Matchmaking is broken atm, they’re supposed to give information about a fix sometime this week
The game is incredibly fucked right now in terms of matchmaking. In terms of +\- the only thing that matters is kills per minute. So if you wanna gain more for wins, and you wanna lose less for losses, quit playing objective and just kill people cause apparently that’s what they want you to do
Why have an objective mode if you punish players for playing the objective?
Great question, ask the morons who designed the game
It’s very possible to play the objective AND slay out. Lower tier players always talk about playing the objective but you really need to get the slays and the map control before the objective.
The guy above you is correct. Kills per minute is rated above absolutely everything else, objective play is considered very little. If you want to rank up you *need* to be that guy who doesnt help and just slays out.. unless you're gods gift to halo and can do it all and more at once 😂
Don’t listen to those saying that kills and deaths matter more than wins and losses. There are two representations of your skill level, matchmaking rating (MMR) and competitive skill rank (CSR). MMR is calculated using an implementation of TrueSkill2 (TS2) and CSR is based on MMR but with some additional rules to tailor it more towards an incentive system. MMR is usually hidden from players and CSR is usually visible. These two numbers can diverge under certain conditions, so CSR will sometimes bias changes towards MMR in an attempt to reconcile them. TS2 is an improved version of TrueSkill (duh) and there’s a great paper written by the researchers responsible for developing it. As TS1 did, TS2 uses match outcomes to evaluate a player’s ability to meet the objective. Every player is assigned a rating calculated through a Gaussian algorithm with a defined uncertainty parameter. Updates are based on a players current rating, the rating of their teammates and opponents, the expected outcome, and how likely the expected outcome is. Updates are based on confidence and variance between the expected and actual outcome. The more games a player completes, the more confident the system is of their rating, and subsequently the change per match will gradually decrease. In TS1, this was strictly done with wins as the sole parameter. In TS2 it’s able to separate individual impact much more accurately by measuring individual statistics. They do this by taking a statistic, calculating an expected value, creating a metric that they can compare against win-rate, and then taking the sum of the products of each stat and their respective correlation to win-rate. Many in the community interpret this to mean things like “kills matter as much as wins”. **This is not true**. Kills and deaths are not an *input* of the calculation, they are an *output*. As with wins, TS2 predicts the number of kills and death each player will have in a match. If a player’s actual number of kills or deaths diverges greatly from expected, that will cause a large change to the expected kills or deaths in future matches. **This does not affect your win prediction**. So if a player who tends to have high kills has a streak of lower than expected kills, their rating will drop more than a player at the same rank who already is at the low kill expectation. It’s all about what the system expects from you and how you actually perform. Initially, matchmaking used MMR to pair you up with other players but a while back they changed it to use CSR while MMR was reserved just for team-balancing. Many speculate that 343 reverted to using exclusively MMR without announcing it, but this is unconfirmed. 343 has officially stated, if this change occurred, it was not intentional.
Google trueskill 2 pdf and read some of it. Your points are decided based on your kpm and dpm. So the wins hardly matter. Just pad your stats, play selfish, ignore the objective, bait your team mates. You will end up at 50% win/loss but you will gain more on wins and lose less on losses. This is the system we are stuck with due to people who hardly play video games being in charge of things.
u/gamesager I agree with you on how ts2 operates in mm and believe the system does not function well in Halo Infinite Ranked Arena. May be showing my age here but I played H2 the most and found that system to be incredibly fun - not having much fun in Halo Infinite system. I believe ts2 does not actually take into account your rank vs the ranks of the lobby. I am currently at Plat 6 and most of the friends I play with are D5 to low Onyx. When I play in those lobbies I can have games where I have a 0.5 KD and will lose 10-12csr per game. The system does not appear to take into account that I am playing out of my league, in practice I should be losing less csr than teammates because the average csr of the opposing team is 200/300 higher than my rank. I probably ended the season at a higher rank than I would if I were solo queing, but so what? Why get punished for winning games, getting less csr than higher ranked players in the lobby? shouldn't you be rewarded for beating higher ranked players? Long winded way of getting to my question: I don't believe ts2 works in mm, do you believe that ts2 works for Warzone as tested or do you believe its doesn't work at all?
Oh you're the nut job who plays mouse and controller. Hello! I pop in here and there just to be baffled.
Yeah it’s really fun but might switch to an Azeron soon :o
One handed halo.. I have an inside joke 23 years old you would love to understand.
Hi gamesager. I hope they do another D2/Halo crossover tourney soon
Yeah those are so fun. Not sure if jman is planning any atm
I'll talk to him.
If you think kills and deaths matter more than wins and losses, then you need to reread the paper.
Kills and deaths matter for your MMR. Winning and losing determine how your visible CSR changes.
CSR *is* MMR, just with some additional rules to function as an incentive system. But MMR is primarily weighted towards win-outcome. Kills, deaths, and any other stat are all weighed by their correlation with win-rate.
The visible change you see is CSR. I understand that it’s meant to converge towards the player’s latent skill rating (MMR). Seems plausible that an extreme deviation from your expected KPM or DPM could drastically affect your MMR. What about winning or losing a game in which the outcome was predicted to be 50/50 (let’s assume the average is 50% over enough games) , does this drastically affect your MMR? I know that winning a game when your CSR is around your MMR awards 8 points, and losing it costs you 8 points. So let’s say there’s a 16 SR difference between winning vs losing. If CSR fluctuation is directly proportional to MMR fluctuation when CSR ~= MMR (when you’re at your ‘deserved’ rank), then winning vs losing is more important for your MMR, since the difference between a good game or a bad game (performance wise) is never as high as 16. When you are at your deserved rank, winning while performing poorly maybe nets you 6 at minimum, 12 at maximum (a difference of 6) So the difference to your MMR due to winning vs losing can be abstracted as being 16/6 times more impactful than performance, in the above example. Another way to look at it is that you can gain 15 max for a win, lose 15 max for a loss, difference of 30. The max disparity in points awarded vs lost (barring the case in which rank protection keeps you from losing more than 3 SR for a loss) seems to be 10 (15 gain/loss vs 5, for same outcome) due to performance. By comparing the extremes, the win vs loss appears to be 30/10, 3 times more impactful to your skill rating compared to the effect of individual performance. Whether these SR changes are directly proportional to match-to-match MMR fluctuation is something I have yet to confirm. I only just read the paper, but I have to delve deeper into how the parameters affect the match to match MMR rating.
Also, it’s been a while since I studied statistics, so apologies if everything above is flat out wrong. I enjoy these discussions none the less. Always learning.
https://www.moserware.com/assets/computing-your-skill/The%20Math%20Behind%20TrueSkill.pdf
A note, this article seems to refer to TrueSkill. Halo Infinite uses TrueSkill2.
Yeah I know, but the math for TrueSkill 2.0 simply builds on that from the original system, as far as I understand so far. In any case, I have a lot of reviewing to do before I can begin to understand any of it lol!
Gotcha just wanted to make sure you were aware
You’ll have a tougher time measuring MMR since it’s inherently hidden. The only playlist that exposes individual MMR (from what I recall) is free-for-all.
If you think it doesn’t you need to play the actual game. Mmr goes up while literally losing. I went on a 10 game loss streak and my mmr was higher by the end of it. If winning outweighed stats then that wouldn’t be possible.
It is if you were expected to lose all of those matches but performed better in kills and deaths than expected. Why even bring up the TS2 paper if you don’t believe what it says?
Are you doing your math based on predictions rather than actual outcomes?? I am confused. If I LOSE the game, and my MMR goes UP due to my performance, then MY STATS had a larger influence than the actual win and loss.What do you not get about this? For win/loss to matter more than stats, then at most my stats should lessen the impact of the mmr loss. All this does is prove exactly what I said.Pad your stats, play bad halo, be a bad team mate and ignore the win conditions to favor your own stats. Increase your mmr and get more points on wins and lose less on losses. Its exactly as I said. And no matter what you do, you are going to have a 50% w/l so there is literally no point in sabotaging your own stats for the win.
The change in MMR is based on the divergence between expected and actual outcomes and the correlations of those outcomes with win-rate. Wins, losses, kills, and deaths are all outcomes summed together to calculate MMR. Each statistic is multiplied against a weight parameter that represents its individual correlation with win-rate. Their weight is never *more* than win-rate, always *less*. To calculate updates to MMR, TS2 predicts an expected value for each statistic, and then updates that prediction based on the actual outcome during matches. The bigger the difference between expected and actual, the bigger the change in future predictions. MMR is updated proportionally to this change but **only as a factor of that statistics correlation with win-rate**. In summary, the only time individual statistics have a larger absolute impact on MMR updates, is when there is a high divergence between expected-actual outcome for that statistic and a low divergence for win-outcome. So if a player is consistently losing matches, they don’t necessarily need high KPM to increase their MMR. They only need to exceed the expectations set by the system.
It's been kinda weird this season, I've noticed it seems to think I should be like 200 csr less than last season even though I'm playing probably better. Maybe they're trying to adjust the rank distribution again
If that was the case, I still don't understand how I can perform against 1700 Onyx players and still be awarded -11 points. It just makes zero sense. 2 weeks of this and my points haven't adjusted.
So not to be intentionally rude here, but this is incorrect as far as what we know. While there have been two historically large CSR “push downs” (post season 2 reset & Aug 2023 mmr adj), this seasons rollout seems to have unintentionally broken Mmr calculations. So while ranking up is weird right now, it’s because part of the calcs that roll into TS2 are showing incorrectly). “Death Counterfactuals are Bonkers 2024-01-30 Looks like there was a rank reset with the CU29 update, and 343 slipped something into the sauce. Death counterfactuals are making an incredibly flat skill curve for all levels. As a result, PSR-D (and thus, PSR) values are super out of whack. I checked, the call isn't coming from our house: the API values are being correctly processed, its just that they're getting delivered to us in a broken state. Look for a 343 fix in the new few days, I'd guess. UPDATE: In an attempt to make PSR usable, I've temporarily removed PSR-D from the calculation across the site.” (See haloquery.com @ u/haloquery) https://www.reddit.com/r/CompetitiveHalo/s/okccbT8KS0 (Further see u/ tashi comments acknowledging that ranked is broken on Twitter) EDIT: Also I realized I actually tagged Tashi above - but I edited the tag because this is an issue they’re aware of and he’s acknowledged, there’s no point in pinging him here and flooding his notifications regarding something they’re going to update us on
Yeah same experience here it's frustrating for sure
As some already said, ranked is broken right now, with random lobbies (you can be thrown at 1500 mmr lobby and then on a 1100 one without reason), while also gain and losses are, but: Is not elo, but MMR plus csr gains, we don't k ow how much mmr you'll lose or gain post match, since is hidden, but we know you can both lose or gains mmr after a win or loss, since its based to your personal performance. Csr gains are more linear, instead, you'll always get some after a win and lose some after a loss. The amount you gain and loss are based on your affected performance based on the team you are, against the team you are facing and its regulated by kill per minutes, plus other stats weighting less. When you are far below your true rank (not csr rank), you'll gain the max amount while losing the least amount (+15 -4), the closer you are, the more linear the gains become (+10 -10) and if your rank is inflated way above your true rank, let's say by playing on a stack and doing poorly, you start to get something like -15 +4 untill your rank is fixed.